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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 240208
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1008 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
FAIR WEATHER BUT CHILLY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME SHOWERS LIKELY ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST 
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE CLEAR STARLIT SKIES 
REGIONWIDE. 

THE CLEAR SKIES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FRESH CHILLY AIRMASS. AN 
ISODROSOTHERMAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 30S 
ACROSS OUR REGION...BUT POISED JUST TO OUR NORTH ARE TD'S IN THE 
TEENS AND 20S. SOME OF THIS DRY CHILLY AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY TO THE 
SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...AND WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL 
COOLING EXPECTED...MINS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE COLDEST 
SRN TIER VALLEYS TO NEAR 32 ALONG THE LAKE SHORES. THESE READINGS 
WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

ALBEIT IT A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE...THURSDAY IS SLATED TO BE A 
BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK AS HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR REGION AND SUPPLY US WITH SUN FILLED 
SKIES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 50S... 
WITH 40S ANTICIPATED SOUTHEAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE A BREEZE OFF THE 
LAKE WILL LIMIT THE RISE IN MERCURY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND ALLOW FOR A 
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO ADVANCE TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. 
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN THROUGH THE 
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BUT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF TILL 
THE MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY WHEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE REGION. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY 
DURING THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AND PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN 
THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. 
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO REMAIN MARGINAL FOR ANY THUNDER...AND WILL 
CONTINUE TO LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS. 

A DRY SLOT BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES 
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS WNY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND FINGER 
LAKES REGION TOWARDS EVENING. A STILL PRESENT UPPER LEVEL LOW AND 
ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS 
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION DURING THE EVENING...AND AS THIS 
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EASTWARD IT WILL RETURN 
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. A SHARP 
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION 
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. 

THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES AND 
INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. UNDERNEATH THIS LOW SCATTERED SHOWERS 
WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE THROUGH 
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 

AS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SPIRALS EASTWARD THERE WILL BE A SLOW 
DIMINISHING TREND TO THE RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR 
BEHIND THE LOW WILL BRING 850 HPA TEMPERATURES DOWN...POSSIBLY AS LOW 
AS -3 TO -5C WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW TO AGAIN 
MIX IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE AREA 
OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 TO THE WEST...BUT 
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOW 30S TO THE EAST WHERE THE CANOPY OF 
CLOUDS WILL REACH LAST. 

FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AHEAD 
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT LIKELY FALL THROUGH THE LATE 
AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT A CHILLY DAY SATURDAY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL 
LOW WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
APRIL IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY A MONTH WHEN CUT OFF LOWS FORM MORE 
OFTEN...AND MODELS OFTEN HAVE DIFFICULTY IN THE EXTENDED WITH THEIR 
MOVEMENT. THIS WILL BE THE CASE TO START THIS TIME PERIOD AS TWO CUT 
OFF LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN THIS TIME PERIOD. THE EASTERN LOW 
WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND A SECOND AND MORE TRANSVERSE LOW OVER 
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SLIDING INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION.

A SKINNY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SEPARATE THESE TWO CUT OFF LOW 
FEATURES AND WHERE THIS RIDGE LIES...IT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY 
SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. 

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WE WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS 
BUILDING TO CHANCE THROUGH THE 3-DAY PERIOD. SOME PERIPHERY BANDS OF 
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW ENGLAND LOW POSSIBLY BRUSHING BY THE 
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...AND OUTER BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH 
THE SLOWLY NEARING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST REACHING 
TOWARDS WESTERN NEW YORK. DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE 
SKINNY IN NATURE ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE AT 
THIS POINT OF A PROLONG NICE DRY STRETCH...AS SOMETIME CAN HAPPEN IN 
A MORE CLASSIC OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN. FOR NOW SUNDAY-MONDAY WILL HAVE 
THE LOWEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM THE WEST REACHING WNY...WITH A 
GREATER CHANCE ON TUESDAY.  

ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO EVENTUALLY WEAKEN 
AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE PLAINS NEARING THERE WILL BE A 
HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY.   

TEMPERATURES THIS TIME PERIOD WILL AVERAGE JUST BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY 
AND MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WARMER AIR 
WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE WESTERN CUT OFF LOW...AND THOUGH 
WE MAY BE A BIT CLOUDIER TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL RISE INTO THE 
50S...AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY EVENING AS 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST 
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. 

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NOVA SCOTIA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS 
TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO 
SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE FRESH NORTHWESTERLIES...RESULTING IN SMALL 
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR LAKE ONTARIO INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL WEAKEN 
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH ADVISORIES 
EXPIRING FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS AS DRY AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN. SUSPECT MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE IS BIT TOO HIGH...AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 TO 25 MPH ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD BE CLOSE (BUT
JUST SHY) OF RED FLAG CRITERIA...HOWEVER WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF
INCH OF RAIN OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS...FUELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY MOIST.
FINER FUELS MAY DRY OUT MORE QUICKLY...BUT AT THIS TIME CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS/ZAFF
FIRE WEATHER...APFFEL







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