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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 180808
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
408 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW PUSHING NORTH 
OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING IS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND 
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM RADARS PRESENTLY SHOWING VERY LITTLE 
ACTIVITY ALONG MUCH OF ITS LENGTH...ALTHOUGH A BAND OF SHOWERS 
ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS JUST STARTING TO 
TAKE SHAPE NEAR THE INDIANA/MICHIGAN BORDER. 

THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE OCCURRING AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST
TO GET SHEARED OUT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST...AS A MUCH STRONGER
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL REGION PUSHES THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN STATES TODAY.

HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CREATE A
NOTABLE UPPER JET RESPONSE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS JET WILL FURTHER AROUSE FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE
AND WILL ALIGN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK IN A FAVORABLE
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION.

GIVEN THESE EXPECTATIONS...A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP INTO
THE AREA AS THE FRONT EASES ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK AS THE UPPER JET INTENSIFIES ACROSS THIS AREA BY
THIS EVENING.

THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE AREA FROM 
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS UP THROUGH EASTERN 
ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT 
LAKES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL START TO CLEAR THE AREA OUT OVERNIGHT. 
ASSOCIATED COOLER AIR WILL DROP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 
UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON SATURDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLIDE 
EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER 
AIR DRAPED FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BUILDS EAST 
INTO NEW YORK STATE. AS A RESULT...AND LEFTOVER CLOUDS AND SLIGHT 
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY IN THE DAY WILL 
GIVE WAY TO DRY WEATHER AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AREAWIDE BY EARLY 
AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS...850 MB READINGS RANGING FROM ABOUT +1C 
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK TO -4/-5C ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY 
WILL TRANSLATE INTO SURFACE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S IN 
MOST PLACES...THOUGH AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORES OF BOTH LAKES WILL 
BE KEPT SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER BY THE PREVAILING NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL 
FLOW.

THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND WILL THEN FEATURE CONTINUED FAIR AND DRY 
WEATHER AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST AND OFF THE 
NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH JUST A LIMITED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER 
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT 
PRESSES IN OUR DIRECTION FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE. LOWS 
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY 
TO THE MID 30S ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...THEN A RETURN SOUTHERLY 
FLOW OF MILDER AIR WILL HELP SEND TEMPS BACK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL 
LEVELS FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE SOUTH OF LAKE 
ONTARIO WHERE 850 MB TEMPS OF +5C TO +7C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 
MID TO UPPER 60S...THOUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL NOT FARE TOO BADLY 
EITHER WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S 
EVEN THERE. THE ABOVE STATED...AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES 
WILL AGAIN BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN THEIR INLAND COUNTERPARTS... 
THIS TIME DUE TO DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD 
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE 
VALLEY...WHERE IT WILL THEN STALL AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY 
AS WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING ALONG THE CENTRAL US-CANADA 
BORDER HELPS KEY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE 
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...THE ENCROACHING 
FRONT WILL BRING A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT 
AND MONDAY...AND EVENTUALLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS 
MOISTURE AND LIFT BOTH BEGIN TO POOL ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FURTHER TO 
THE SOUTH...AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO APPEAR TO REMAIN IN THE WARM 
SECTOR OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...AND SHOULD THUS REMAIN DRY RIGHT 
THROUGH MONDAY WITH ONLY A MORE LIMITED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. 
TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECT A MILDER NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN 
CONSIDERABLY MILDER AIRMASS IN PLACE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS 
NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE LOWER TO 
MID 40S. FURTHER WARMING ALOFT WILL THEN PUSH 850 MB TEMPS TO THE 
+6C TO +9C RANGE ON MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS 
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TO THE 
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHICH WILL BE KEPT A BIT COOLER 
DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT AND GREATER AMOUNTS OF 
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL OPEN WITH THE UPSTREAM 
SURFACE LOW SLIDING EAST AND ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND 
TUESDAY...WHILE ALSO BRINGING THE BEST OVERALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS 
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. HAVE KEPT POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME CONFINED TO 
THE HIGH-END CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY NEED 
TO BE BUMPED UPWARD IN THE NEAR FUTURE SHOULD THE INCREASED 
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE PACKAGES 
CONTINUE TO HOLD. 

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...SHOWER CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY 
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER 
AND DRIER AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW 
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH OUR AIRMASS 
PERHAPS GETTING COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN 
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH COUNTRY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT 
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. 

FINALLY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BOTH APPEAR TO BE QUIET AND 
DRY AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES DIRECTLY ACROSS NEW 
YORK STATE TO CLOSE OUT THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURE-WISE...IT APPEARS 
THAT SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE RIGHT 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MODERATING BACK TO MORE NORMAL 
LEVELS ON THURSDAY AS READINGS ALOFT BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS THE REGION 
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ATLANTIC 
CANADA. EXPECT BKN CIGS AROUND 5000FT TO MOVE IN FROM 15Z ONWARDS ON 
FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SSW WINDS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE 
LOWER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT 
TO MOVE THROUGH THE NIAGARA FRONTIER NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST 
PERIOD...AFTER 22Z...HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP 
SHOWER ACTIVITY WEAK AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN VFR RANGE. WINDS WILL 
VEER TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD 
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM KROC EAST.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. 
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY AS WEAK LOW 
PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES 
BAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE 
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA




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