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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 211813
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
113 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE EVENING 
HOURS...DRIVING LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES NORTHWARD...WHILE 
ALSO SIGNALING THE BEGINNING OF A WARM-UP. A FEW LIGHT RAIN 
SHOWERS...WITH A POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX IN THE HILLS...WILL ARRIVE 
TOMORROW AND MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE 
PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. THIS WARM-UP WILL BRING THE RISK OF 
FLOODING TO AREAS WHICH WERE BURIED IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WE HAVE DROPPED THE LAKE EFFECT HEADLINES FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER AT 
NOONTIME AS DRIER AIR IS WEAKENING THE BANDS FURTHER...AND THE 
BACKING WINDS ARE STARTING TO SHIFT THE SNOW BANDS NORTHWARD. 

OFF LAKE ERIE...BROAD MULTI BANDED SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SKI 
COUNTRY AND THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE BROAD MULTI BANDED STRUCTURES TO 
THE SNOW BANDS WILL NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW RATES BUT WITH 
SOME HELP FROM LAKE HURON AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALLS 
OF SEVERAL INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT NOONTIME. AFTER 
WHICH SHIFTING WINDS WILL LOSE THE LAKE HURON CONNECTION...AND THE 
WEAKENING SNOW BAND WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE METRO 
BUFFALO AREA THIS EVENING. FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE 
ALL THAT IS LEFT BY TIME IT REACHES METRO BUFFALO. LATER THIS 
EVENING THE SNOW BAND SHOULD FINALLY END WITH JUST SOME LAKE EFFECT 
CLOUDS REMAINING. 

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A NW FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW 
INLAND ACROSS NE MONROE AND ALONG THE SHORELINE TO OSWEGO AND INLAND 
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION. THIS BAND OF SNOW IS WEAK 
AT THIS TIME...BUT AS WINDS BACK TO A WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE 
DAY...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF UPTICK IN SNOWFALL TOWARDS THE TUG HILL 
REGION AS ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM MOISTURE FROM LAKE HURON...AND A LONG 
FETCH ALONG LAKE ONTARIO ENTERS THE BAND OF SNOW. ADDITIONAL 
ACCUMULATIONS TODAY WILL BE MINOR...BUT 3 TO PERHAPS 5 INCHES OF 
FRESH SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION TONIGHT.   

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH SOME 
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS ALOFT. 
HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TODAY THEN FALLING 
BACK INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE 
SINGLE DIGITS WITH A STEADY SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT 
WIDESPREAD FLOODING...AS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL PUSH 
INTO THE REGION. 

THE WATER STORED IN THE RECENTLY FALLEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY 
TO BE AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE 
GREATEST CONCERN FOR FLOODING WILL BE IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 
TUESDAY TIME FRAME. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS 
REMAINING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. BY MONDAY...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL 
BE CLIMBING TOWARDS 60 DEGREES WHICH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO 
UPPER 40S AND SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF 
THE SNOWPACK TO MELT. 

THE HIGH LIQUID IN THE SNOWPACK COMBINED THE FALLING RAINFALL WILL 
LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING...BOTH URBAN AND AREAL AS WELL AS 
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL STREAM/CREEKS AND RIVERS. IT IS DIFFICULT 
TO SAY AT THIS POINT HOW SIGNIFICANT THE FLOODING WILL BE WITH THE 
EXACT AMOUNT OF WATER STORED IN THE SNOWPACK STILL AN UNKNOWN. ONCE
THIS IS ANSWERED...A BETTER IDEA OF THE SEVERITY OF THE FLOODING 
WILL BE BETTER KNOWN.  

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY MORNING. 
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BE ADVECTIING THE LEADING EDGE 
OF A WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION ON AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY 
FLOW AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES GO ABOVE FREEZING. INITIALLY THIS COULD 
BE PROBLEMATIC WITH THE LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIRMASS STILL ENTRENCHED 
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STRONG INVERSION LIKELY IN PLACE SATURDAY 
MORNING. AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EJECTS OUT 
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND A SHOT OF PV ADVECTION 
SATURDAY WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF RAIN DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST. 
LATEST PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST THIS FALLS AS MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. 
HOWEVER...THERE COULD STILL BE SOME POCKETS OF BELOW FREEZING 
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FREEZING 
RAIN AT THE ONSET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILLS SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND 
ROCHESTER...AND ALSO VALLEYS TO THE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SHARP 
WARMING ALOFT WILL LIMIT MAINTENANCE FOR SUB-ZERO WET BULBING SO 
THINK ANY ICING THREAT WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WILL STILL NEED TO BE 
MONITORED. 

THE WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 
TO UPPER 30S OR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 40 ALONG THE 
LAKE ERIE SHORE AND NIAGARA FRONTIER. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL CAUSE SOME 
MELTING OF THE DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE EAST OF THE LAKE ERIE... 
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME LOOK MINIMAL AS THE SNOWPACK WILL 
ABSORB THIS MELT. 

WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL THEN BE ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY 
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A 100 KNOT JET DEVELOPS OVERHEAD IN 
RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM. THIS WILL HELP 
ORIENT A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL SERVE 
AS A FOCUS FOR ONGOING LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD. 

TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING 
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION LIKELY KEEPING 
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO 
ALSO GO ABOVE FREEZING. THIS COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN...ALBEIT 
LIGHT WILL LEAD TO FURTHER RIPENING OF THE DEEP SNOW PACK. 

THIS LIFT WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS 
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION 
FOR A SHORT TIME...ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP 
CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO 
ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEARING 50 
DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. 
THE COMBINATION OF WARMING TEMPERATURES...INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS 
AND RISING DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEEP SNOWPACK EAST OF BOTH 
GREAT LAKES TO CONTINUE TO COMPACT AND DIMINISH IN HEIGHT. 

SHORTWAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY 
LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN BRUNT OF DYNAMICS... 
MOISTURE AND RAIN WILL QUICKLY SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY 
EVENING. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE LIFTING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE 
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION. ISENTROPIC ASCENT 
COMMENCES AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
PER LATEST GEFS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST +2 TO +3 
STANDARD DEVIATION AS VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.25 INCHES. PROFILES 
INDICATE A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN WHICH DOES GIVE AT LEAST SOME 
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER..IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS 
WILL BE A RATHER QUICK SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WITH MOST OF THE RAIN
OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING...AS A DRY SLOT PUNCHES INTO THE 
REGION IN WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS 
DURING THIS PERIOD IN THE ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE. 

THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS COLD AIR WILL REMAIN JUST 
TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND 
ALLOW FOR SNOWPACK MELTING TO CONTINUE. WITH THE TROUGH NEARBY WILL 
CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP FOR A PASSING SHOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD COOLING TEMPERATURES 
WILL END THE THREAT OF FLOODING...BUT AGAIN RENEW THE LAKE EFFECT 
SNOW POTENTIAL. 

ON TUESDAY AN AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS A LONG 
WAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND DOWN 
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT THE 
RIDGE TO OUR EAST (PRIOR WARM AIRMASS) AND RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST. 

WITH SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND WITH 
THIS TROUGH NOW NEARING OUR REGION WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR 
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS THROUGH THE 
DAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN. 

BY TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA WILL HAVE DROPPED TO 
NEAR -10C...AND FALLING. ALOFT THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST WILL 
NOT BE AS DEEP AS THIS CURRENT WEEK OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...COLD AIR 
NOT AS DEEP AND CAPPING INVERSION HEIGHTS NOT AS TALL. THAT SAID 
PARAMETERS ARE STILL LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER BAND OF LAKE 
EFFECT SNOW STARTING TUESDAY PM ACROSS AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE 
LAKES...THEN DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. 
WITH THE COLD AIR NOT AS DEEP THERE MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE RAIN MIXED 
IN WITH THE BANDS OF SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. 

A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT...WHICH MAY DISRUPT THE BANDS SOME...BEFORE A WESTERLY WIND 
CARRIES THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW INLAND TO AREAS EAST OF THE LAKES...AND 
SOUTH OF BUFFALO/WATERTOWN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 

BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL FADE EARLY THURSDAY AS WE GET A 
LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. 
THIS SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT GENERAL SNOW TO WNY BY LATE IN 
THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 18Z TWO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS OFF BOTH GREAT LAKES ARE 
BRINGING LOCALIZED IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. THESE BANDS OF SNOW WILL 
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT 
HOURS...AND WEAKEN. OFF LAKE ERIE THE SNOW BAND MAY JUST HAVE ENOUGH 
STRUCTURE TO BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS TO KBUF BEFORE 
THE BAND FALLS APART ALL TOGETHER. OFF LAKE ONTARIO THE BAND OF SNOW 
WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE IN STRENGTH THIS EVENING AS WESTERLY WINDS 
ALIGN ALONG THE LONG FETCH OF THE LAKE. AS THIS BAND TOO LIFTS 
NORTHWARD IT MAY BRING SOME BRIEF IFR VSBYS TO THE KART AIRFIELD 
LATER OVERNIGHT BEFORE FALLING APART. 

OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST 18 OR SO 
HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE. LATE IN THE CYCLE...ON THE STRENGTH OF A 50 
KNOT LLJ...AND NEARING STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEST A FEW LIGHT RAIN 
SHOWERS MAY NEAR THE TAF SITES WITHIN THE LAST 6 HOURS. EXPECT 
MAINLY MVFR/VFR CIGS WITHIN THIS SYNOPTIC SYSTEM.  

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR/VFR WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION. 
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN. LLWS 
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS EAST OF BOTH 
LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND WEAKEN 
THE INFLUENCING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL FIRST RELAX 
THROUGH TODAY BUT WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE EVENING 
WHERE ADVISORIES THEN EXPIRE. 

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI 
RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY TO MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DEEPENING 
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME ELEVATED WINDS WITH POSSIBLE GALES ON 
LAKE ERIE AND ADVISORIES POSSIBLE ON LAKE ONTARIO BY MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR 
     NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR 
     NYZ004-005.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING 
     FOR NYZ010>012-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR 
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...SMITH







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