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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 251536
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1136 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA 
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME GUSTY WINDS 
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS. COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF 
THE FRONT WILL THEN SET THE STAGE FOR SOME NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN 
SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHILE THE 
REMAINDER OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL BE COOLER WITH BRISK WINDS. A 
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY THIS 
MORNING WILL LOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR WEATHER DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY 
AS A VERY ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL CHARGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER 
GREAT LAKES. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG H25 JET OF 145KTS (RETURN 
INTERVAL OF ONCE IN A 10-20 YR PERIOD) WILL ACCOMPANY THE DIGGING 
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...LEADING TO A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH AND 
EVENTUAL CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL 
SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...FOCUSING THE LOW 
LEVEL LIFT FOR THE EXPECTED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

AS WAS EXCELLENTLY DESCRIBED IN A PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SHARP MID 
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS 
AFTERNOON...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS 
THE REGION. THE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CROSS THE NORTH 
COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG DPVA AHEAD OF 
THE SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION 
OF A 150+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET AND AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. 
PWAT VALUES RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MORE 
THAN AMPLE FOR LATE FALL. THIS SHOULD ALL COME TOGETHER WITH LOW 
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A 3 HOUR 
PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE LIFTED INDEX DROPS 
TO -1C TO -3C DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE ACROSS THE NORTH 
COUNTRY...AND THIS MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING 
MAY PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. FARTHER 
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE 
MUCH WEAKER...SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS 
THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL 
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND BEHIND THE 
SURFACE COLD FRONT AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH THE FRONTAL 
INVERSION. 

IT WILL BECOME WINDY TODAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF LAKE 
ERIE IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER WHERE 
BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER SCHEMES SUGGEST SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN THE 
35-40 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDY...THE STRONG SFC 
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL ADVECT A NARROW 
TONGUE OF 7/8C H85 TEMPS ACROSS OUR REGION...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT 
AFTERNOON TEMPS OF 60 TO 65...WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE 
GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE 
10 TO 15 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...MUCH CHILLIER AIR WILL POUR ACROSS 
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. H85 TEMPS WILL DROP TO ARND -1C AND 
THIS WILL BE ESTABLISH ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER LAKE ONTARIO TO 
SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY OF THE TUG HILL. 
THE MESOSCALE BASED PCPN WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE PASSING OF A VERY 
STRONG SHORTWAVE TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING...WHEN THE SHOWERS ARE 
EXPECTED TO 'BLOSSOM' NORTHWARDS TOWARDS THE THOUSAND ISLANDS.  
WHILE THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH 
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE ABV 10K FT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH 
ZONE TO PRODUCE SOME WET FLAKES. THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE 
PROFILE THOUGH SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH ABV FREEZING TO ALLOW ANY SNOW 
TO MELT. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS THE TUG HILL WHERE SOME WET 
SNOW COULD MIX IN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FROM ADDING THIS TO THE 
PACKAGE.

OFF LK ERIE...THERE WILL BE A SERIOUS LACK OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE ABV 
5K FT SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUD 
COVER. ELSEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...TONIGHT WILL FEATURE BRISK 
WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY...A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL MEANDER ITS 
WAY EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE A COOL WESTERLY TO 
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES 
REGION. A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE 
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL ACT IN CONCERT WITH LAKE 
AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO AREAS 
EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING...FOR 
WHICH POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO CATEGORICAL GIVEN THE FAVORABLE 
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE SETUP. AFTER THAT TIME...INCREASING 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND IN 
CONJUNCTION WITH BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD RESULT IN 
THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND BEING INCREASINGLY DRIVEN MORE 
BY LAKE AND OROGRAPHIC PROCESSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE 
EVENTUALLY DYING OUT ALTOGETHER SUNDAY NIGHT. 

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY BE DRY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT 
WITH JUST A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND 
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF SHOWERS. EXPECT A 
BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF GOOD MECHANICAL MIXING 
AND 850 MB TEMPS OF ZERO TO -2C YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 
50S IN MOST PLACES...FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING WINDS AND TEMPS 
DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. 

DURING MONDAY...THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST 
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND...WHILE DEVELOPING COMPLEX LOW 
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES PUSHES ITS ATTENDANT WARM 
FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION. AT THIS JUNCTURE...EXPECT THIS LATTER 
FEATURE TO APPROACH SLOWLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY...THOUGH 
THE OVERALL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A GENERAL 
WEST TO EAST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER TIME...PARTICULARLY DURING 
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN SPITE OF THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...OUR 
AIRMASS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO PUSH TEMPERATURES TO AROUND THE 60 
DEGREE MARK ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO... 
WHILE THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD REMAIN COOLER WITH HIGHS REMAINING 
CONFINED TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. 

MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...THE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN WHILE 
BODILY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE...AND IN 
THE PROCESS WILL DRIVE ITS WARM FRONT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR 
REGION. COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF 
A DEVELOPING 30-35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL 
PROBABLY BRING AT LEAST A LOWER-END RISK FOR SOME SHOWERS AS IT 
TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...FOR WHICH SOME 
CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN PLAY. TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE OVERALL WARM AIR 
ADVECTION REGIME AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN MONDAY 
NIGHT BEING NOTICEABLY MILDER COMPARED TO ITS PREDECESSOR...WITH 
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE MID 
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 50S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN 
NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL 
NEW YORK APPEARS AS IF IT WILL BE ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF 
THE DEEPENING LOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS 
OF TUESDAY. AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD 
APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY 
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES 
GENERALLY TRENDING A BIT SLOWER AGAIN WITH THE 00Z/25 CYCLE...WHILE 
ALSO STILL EXHIBITING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF 
THE FRONT. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PASSAGE OF 
THE FRONT A LITTLE BIT FROM OUR PREVIOUS CONTINUITY...WHILE ALSO 
KEEPING SHOWER CHANCES CONFINED TO THE CHANCE RANGE GIVEN THE 
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN ITS TIMING. 

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THESE LOOK AS IF THEY MAY REALLY SOAR 
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ON TUESDAY. WITH 925 MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO AS 
HIGH AS +14C TO +18C IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AT THIS POINT FEEL THAT HIGHS SHOULD REACH TO 
AROUND 70 OR SO ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND TO THE LOWER TO EVEN 
MID 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. SHOULD SUCH READINGS ACTUALLY COME TO 
FRUITION...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER FOR OCTOBER 
28TH (74/1946 AND 76/1984 RESPECTIVELY) COULD BE CLOSELY 
APPROACHED...WHILE WATERTOWN'S RECORD HIGH (75/1984) WOULD BE MORE 
LIKELY TO REMAIN SAFE. AFTER THAT...READINGS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO 
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE 
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY NIGHT'S COLD FRONT...BROAD LARGE-SCALE 
TROUGHING AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED 
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 
WEEK. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THIS WILL RESULT IN A 
NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH READINGS 
EVENTUALLY FALLING BACK BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WORK 
WEEK. MORE SPECIFICALLY...DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID TO 
UPPER 50S ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY DROP BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER 
40S BY FRIDAY...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS PULL BACK TO THE MID 30S TO 
LOWER 40S.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE MAINLY 
DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH JUST SOME NUISANCE 
WEAK LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS FOUND EAST/EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE 
LAKES. AFTER THIS...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL 
AGREEMENT ON SOME SEMBLANCE OF ANOTHER WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM 
AFFECTING OUR REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH THE DETAILS VARY 
FROM ONE PACKAGE TO THE NEXT. NONETHELESS...THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE 
INTO A RENEWED GENERAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN TIME FOR THURSDAY NIGHT 
AND FRIDAY...FOR WHICH SOME BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN 
PLAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING 
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL 
INCREASE THROUGH THE LAKE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS STRONGER 
WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KT WITH 
THE STRONGEST GUSTS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AS WINDS 
FUNNEL UP LAKE ERIE. 

THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AROUND 18Z AND 
RAPIDLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXITING THE NORTH COUNTRY AROUND 
00Z SUN. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LARGELY BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF 
WESTERN NEW YORK WITH PASSAGE BEING NOTED MAINLY BY THICKENING 
CLOUDS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS FOLLOWED BY A SUBTLE WESTERLY WIND 
SHIFT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE STRONGER 
SYNOPTIC LIFT AND NOMINALLY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF 
SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN FACT GIVEN THE TIMING 
OF FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH 
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER CHANCES 
ARE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT LEAVING OUT OF THE TAF AT 
KART...PARTICULARLY AS BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN 
TOWARDS KGTB.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO 
PERSIST THROUGH 00-03Z AS COLD AIR ADVECTS ACROSS THE REGION. CIGS 
SHOULD SCATTER OUT FOR A TIME BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING 
BEFORE COLD ADVECTION GENERATES LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT 
WITH VFR CIGS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE LAKES. EAST OF LAKE 
ONTARIO...LONGER DOWN-LAKE FETCH COMBINED WITH ANOTHER WEAKER 
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS 
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF 
LAKE ONTARIO WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. 
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF 
THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL FRESHEN OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY AS A COLD FRONT 
OVER MICHIGAN WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 
WINDS WILL INITIALLY INCREASE ACROSS LAKE ERIE WHERE A RELATIVELY 
TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ENCOURAGE WINDS 
TO REACH 30 KNOTS...WITH SOME GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE BY LATE 
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS LONGER TO INCREASE ON LAKE 
ONTARIO...ESPECIALLY EAST OF ROCHESTER. 

TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH 
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN PLACE. THIS 
WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE ON LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS 
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE EASTERN HALF. 

THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER BOTH LAKES ERIE AND 
ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION 
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS 
AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ON BOTH LAKES MONDAY AS THE SFC 
RIDGE PASSES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM 
         EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...RSH







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