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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 280305
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1005 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES 
REGION TONIGHT...AND BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS...WITH HIGHEST 
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HILLS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...AND TO THE 
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 
FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING NOTICEABLY MILDER FOR SATURDAY AND THROUGH 
THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR 
LIGHT RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS EACH WEEKEND DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 1000 PM...RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
FROM BUFFALO TO NIAGARA FALLS...WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THIS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THESE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF
BETWEEN 11 PM AND MIDNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER...BUT UNTIL THEN SNOWFALL RATES UP TO AN INCH AN HOUR ARE
POSSIBLE. 

ELSEWHERE...SNOW SHOWERS ARE MORE PATCHY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE BOSTON/WYOMING HILLS...BUT INCREASING
MOISTURE GETTING PUSHED BY THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD ENHANCE THESE SNOW
SHOWERS...AND CAUSE THEM TO LINGER WELL PAST MIDNIGHT. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF MESOSCALE GUIDANCE (NAM/WRF/ARW/HRRR).

OTHERWISE...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE LAKES
WITH TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA DROPPING TO -15C. THIS WILL INCREASE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A MODEST INCREASE IN LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS SHOULD A LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE. THE WNW FLOW
DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE ONTARIO HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO ORGANIZE
INTO A SINGULAR BAND AND PRODUCE THE GREATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
IF THIS OCCURS...IT WOULD BE AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING WHEN
WIND FIELDS ARE BEST ALIGNED. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...THERE WOULD BE
A COUPLE HOURS OF HEAVY SNOW SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT THIS
BAND WOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST
LATE MORNING WHICH WOULD LIFT THE BAND NORTHWARD AND LIMIT
SNOWFALL TOTALS. BEFORE THIS...DISORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT AND
MOISTURE WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A MORE GENERAL LIGHT
SNOWFALL SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE. TOTALS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE
ADVISORY RANGE...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE.

AS THE FLOW PASSES OVER THE LONG FETCH OF LAKE ONTARIO THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF UPTICK IN SNOW INTENSITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR THE TUG
HILL REGION. ALSO...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD LIFT WHAT IS LEFT OF
THE BAND BACK INTO THE BUFFALO METRO AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO MAKE ROADS
SLICK IN SPOTS.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS 
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. HIGHS UNDER THE -13 TO -14C AIRMASS 
AT 850 HPA WILL ONLY RECOVER INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AND MOIST AIR SETTING UP FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH 
PRESSURE SLIDE EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. ONGOING LAKE EFFECT 
SNOWS EAST OF THE LAKES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THIS WARM AIR 
ADVECTION PATTERN OVERWHELMS THE AREA. A GENERAL LIGHT SNOW SHOULD 
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY 
NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. LATEST MODELS SUGGESTING THAT 
THE PRIMARY ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL FOCUS NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA 
SIGNALING ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL 
NEW YORK. 

BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE 
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THOUGH ANY 
FORCING MECHANISMS LOOKING RATHER WEAK AND DIFFUSE THERE COULD BE A 
FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITHIN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTER.
 
SHARP WARMING TREND ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH STRONG AND DEEP 
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. 925 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO SURGE TO NEAR +8C 
BY SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...MAKING A RUN SOLIDLY INTO THE 
50S LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA MONDAY SHOULD BRING A BAND OF 
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. CRITICAL TEMPERATURES SUGGEST RAIN SHOWERS 
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH A TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BEHIND IT AS 
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS. 

THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ON A 
SHORT NORTHERLY FETCH ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE 
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS SHOULD QUICKLY END ALTOGETHER 
BY TUESDAY MORNING AS STRONG SURFACE BASED RIDGING AND ATTENDANT 
DRYING/SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. 

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDED A FAIR AND DRY TUESDAY 
ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE BRIEF. THE HIGH LOOKS TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST 
QUICKLY...SETTING UP MOIST AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WITH 
PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO BREAK OF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AT THIS STAGE OF THE 
FORECAST WITH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THERMAL 
PROFILES. THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH AT LEAST SOME 
POTENTIAL FOR ICING. 

ANOTHER SURGE OF FRESH ARCTIC AIR SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES 
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 03Z...A SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY IN
AND OUT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

THE BACK EDGE OF A CLUSTER OF SNOW SHOWERS IS APPROACHING BUF/IAG
WITH RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AROUND 04Z. MEANWHILE...STEADIER
SNOWS AND LOWER CIGS SHOULD IMPACT JHW A BIT LONGER AS THE
SHORTWAVE PUSHES MORE MOISTURE SOUTHWARD.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT LIGHTER AND MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AT
ROC/ART...WITH MVFR OR BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
MVFR/VFR CIGS. ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL LIFT
NORTH...AND MAY CLIP BUF/ART TOWARD 00Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EAST OF THE LAKES. 
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. 
TUESDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES 
TONIGHT WITH COLD AIR FRESHENING IN ITS WAKE. THIS COLD AIR COMBINED 
WITH MODEST WESTERLIES WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE 
EASTERN GREAT LAKES...FIRST ON LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING AND THEN 
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ON LAKE ONTARIO. WARMING COMMENCING FRIDAY 
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL WEAKEN LAPSE RATES...AND THIS COMBINED 
WITH THE EFFECTS OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING TOWARDS THE LAKES WILL 
ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT...AND ADVISORIES ENDING.  

SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BRING LOW END SCA 
FOR LAKE ERIE AND THE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD DURING THE MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER IT 
APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF THE TIME OVER 
THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THERE WILL BE BRIEF PUSHES OF COLDER AIR AT 
TIMES AS PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS AMPLIFY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT 
THESE COLD PERIODS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...ONLY LASTING FOR A FEW DAYS 
AT A TIME...AND WILL BE OUTNUMBERED BY MILD DAYS.

LOOKING AT THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN...A POSITIVE NORTH ATLANTIC 
OSCILLATION /NAO/ WILL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER 
BASED ON THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE 
NORTH ATLANTIC IN SUCH A PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY COLD FROM LOCKING 
IN OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES. THE PACIFIC 
NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN /PNA/ WILL REMAIN NEGATIVE THROUGH THE FIRST 
FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER...BEFORE TRENDING POSITIVE BASED ON GEFS 
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THIS TOO WILL PREVENT COLD FROM LOCKING INTO THE 
NORTHEAST FOR MORE THAN A FEW DAYS AT A TIME.

THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION /MJO/ MAY PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN 
DRIVING PATTERN CHANGE THROUGH MID DECEMBER. ANALYSIS OVER THE PAST 
WEEK HAS SHOWN A MODERATELY STRONG MJO EVENT DEVELOPING OVER THE 
INDIAN OCEAN. A GEFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE 
PLOT SHOWS THIS MJO ORBITING THROUGH PHASE 4 AND 5 DURING THE FIRST 
WEEK IN DECEMBER AS CONVECTION MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MARITIME 
CONTINENT. A LOOK AT COMPOSITE CHARTS OF PAST EVENTS FAVORS ABOVE 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED 
STATES DURING PHASE 4 THROUGH 6 OF THE MJO.

EVENTUALLY AS WE GET INTO THE SECOND WEEK IN DECEMBER MJO CONVECTION 
WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD ORBIT THROUGH THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE 
WESTERN HEMISPHERE. IF THE MJO CONVECTION PERSISTS ON ITS EASTWARD 
JOURNEY AND REACHES PHASE 7 OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE PLOT...IT 
WOULD FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS COLDER THAN NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MJO 
ACCOMPLISHES THIS AS SUB-TROPICAL CONVECTION INFLUENCES THE PATTERN 
OVER THE PACIFIC...FORCING AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTWARD EXTENSION 
OF THE EAST ASIAN JET WHICH IN TURN FORCES DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION 
OF THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. BASED ON THE FORECAST TIMING OF 
THE MJO EPISODE THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR BY WEEK 2 OR 3 OF 
DECEMBER AND FEED BACK INTO MORE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING AND MORE 
LONG LASTING COLD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ012-019-
     020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST 
         SATURDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY 
         FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...THOMAS
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK





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