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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 211945
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
345 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE 
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TONIGHT TO THE NEW 
ENGLAND COASTLINE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS 
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO 
TIME. SUNSHINE AND INCREASING WARMTH WILL RETURN TO THE REGION 
STARTING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A SHORTWAVE LIFTING 
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE...WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE 
DIGGING ACROSS LAKE ERIE. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS 
DEEPENING OFF THE JERSEY COASTLINE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAKENING 
LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK. 

REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY SCATTERED SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ACROSS WNY 
AND DRIFTING SOUTHWARD...WITH LIGHT ACTIVITY FARTHER EASTWARD ACROSS 
THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH THIS 
ACTIVITY DRIFTING NORTHWARD. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON 
AND EVENING. GREATEST CHANCES...AND WHERE LIKELY POPS WILL BE IN 
PLACE WILL BE ACROSS THE HILLS SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER WHERE 
AN UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ADD TO THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SHOWER 
COVERAGE AREA. ALSO TONIGHT JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE 
AND TOWARDS THE GENESEE VALLEY WHERE A NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND ACROSS 
THE LAKE WILL BRING ADDED FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT LIKELY 
SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THROUGH THE GENESEE VALLEY 
WHICH WILL LIE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. 

WITH RICH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW 
AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY 
TOMORROW MORNING. THIS MOISTURE WILL ALSO BRING LOW CLOUDS AND SOME 
PATCHY FOG TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NYS AND ALSO THE TUG HILL 
REGION. 

TOMORROW THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON WILL FORM A CUTOFF LOW 
NEAR VIRGINIA WITH A SURFACE LOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. COOL NORTHERLY 
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH CLOUDS REMAINING 
THICK. DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD END THE AREAS OF DRIZZLE BY MID MORNING 
THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS 
WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTHERN GENESEE 
VALLEY WHICH WILL LIE CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE LOW...AND SPOKES OF 
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSE LOW. 

WITH THICK CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL NOT HAVE A GREAT RANGE. 
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WILL LOWER TO THE LOW 
TO MID 40S TONIGHT. TOMORROW WITH COOLING ALOFT...OUR TEMPERATURES 
WILL STRUGGLE TO TOP THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING NEARLY STACKED DEEP CLOSED LOW 
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOVING VERY 
SLOWLY OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MAINE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 
ASSOCIATED DEEP MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD AREA OF 
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE 
PERIOD...WITH LIKELY A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE PRECIPITATION FIELD 
SOMEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...THOUGH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION 
MAY BE JUST AS PREVALENT ACROSS THE FAVORED NORTHERLY FLOW UPSLOPE 
AREAS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION... 
LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 
UPPER 30S AND 40S EACH DAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S 
EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RENEWED MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WORK INTO WESTERN NEW YORK AT 
THE START OF THE PERIOD IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING MID/UPPER LEVEL 
CIRCULATION PUSHING THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND APPROACHING 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM ONTARIO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GRADUAL 
IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE 
LINGERING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM PULLING AWAY...KEEPING A
LOW RISK FOR SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS. 

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE MORE IN AGREEMENT 
BRINGING THE POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE ONTARIO UPPER 
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY 
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AFTER THIS...MODELS SIMILAR IN BRING A BROAD 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE 
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH MORE 
IMPROVED CONDITIONS WITH SUNSHINE AND A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. 
TEMPERATURES PROBABLY NO GETTING OUT OF THE 50S FOR THE WEEKEND .BUT 
INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 70S FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT AND LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AT 18Z WILL 
YIELD IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DEVELOPING DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF 
THE TAF PERIOD. 

TO START THE TAF PERIOD...SOME IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FOUND NEAR 
LAKE ONTARIO...WITH MVFR AND SOME VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FARTHER 
SOUTHWARD. AS THE NORTHERLY FLOW SPREADS LOW CLOUDS AND ADDITIONAL 
MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTHWARD MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY 
ACROSS KBUF...AND LATER KJHW. GREATEST DURATION OF IFR WILL LIKELY 
BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE A UPSLOPE FLOW WITH MAINTAIN AREAS 
OF DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING 
HOURS TOMORROW. 

LARGELY MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS KART...THOUGH 
SOME PATCHY IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WITH DAYTIME MIXING THE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE SHOULD 
IMPROVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MVFR AND SOME VFR FLIGHT 
CONDITIONS WILL CLOSE OUT THE LAST 3-6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. 

OUTLOOK...   
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN... 
RAIN LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
COOL...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RULE THROUGH THE WEEK AND THIS WILL 
MAINTAIN CHOPPY LAKE WATERS AND AT TIMES GUSTY WINDS ON THE RIVERS. 
FOR TONIGHT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO 
AND LAKE ERIE. THE NORTHERLY WIND...STRENGTHENING SOME OVERNIGHT 
WITH THE ONSET OF COOLER AIR WILL ALSO BRING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS 
TO THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER AS WINDS FUNNEL UP THE GORGE. 

THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME TOMORROW...THOUGH WINDS AND WAVES WILL 
REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON THE LAKES THROUGH THE DAYTIME. 

A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM SLIDING UP THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE WILL 
EXIT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND THOUGH WAVES WILL STILL AVERAGE AROUND 
3-4 FEET ON THE LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT 
         THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR 
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042-
         043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS







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