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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 011520
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1020 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY 
THIS MORNING TO NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT AND BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO 
MODERATE SNOW TO THE REGION. THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF MONDAY 
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A 
STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT 
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE REGION 
WHICH WILL BRIEFLY CHANGE TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE 
FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL THEN MOVE BACK INTO THE 
AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPING UP IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF WEAK 
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RAPIDLY PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO 
VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE RESULTING UPTICK IN MOIST 
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ANCHORING THE EXPANSION OF LIGHT SNOW AS EXPECTED. 
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE REGION OF LIGHT 
SNOW EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN OHIO NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN 
AND CENTRAL NY...WITH LIGHT SNOW NOW ALSO STARTING ACROSS MUCH OF 
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE SNOW WILL BE VERY LIGHT THROUGH 
MOST OF TODAY...WITH SOME UPTICK EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON 
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AS A PERIOD OF STRONGER ISENTROPIC 
ASCENT BEGINS.

STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENESIS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION 
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF AN 
UPPER JET STREAK. THIS WILL LARGELY OCCUR SOUTH OF THE NEW YORK 
STATE BORDER. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO 
THE ENHANCED FORCING TO SEE HIGHER INTENSITY SNOWS. WHILE MUCH OF 
THE AREA WILL SEE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE...ENHANCED 
AMOUNTS IN THE 4 TO 6 INCHES LOOK REASONABLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER 
WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL 
ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL AND 
SOUTHWESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE AMOUNTS MAY ALSO 
REACH 4-6 INCHES. AN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LEWIS COUNTY TO 
COVER THIS POTENTIAL. 

MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS DRIER 
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SNOW SHIELD TO 
SLOWLY PULL TO THE EAST. 

DESPITE THE SNOW...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT BE AS COLD COMPARED 
TO RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST AREAS. 
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD 
COVER AND LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO 
MONDAY AS MOISTURE AND COLD AIR CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK 
SIDE THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...SHIFTING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE 
TO NEWFOUNDLAND. UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE 
SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HAVE SNOW CHANCES 
LONGEST AS THE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM A 500MB TROUGH AND ATTENDANT 
VORT MAX PASS TO OUR EAST. QUICKLY THINNING MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY 
LEAD UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH 
A FEW TENTHS ELSEWHERE BEFORE ENDING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 
MPH DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER 
LAKES REGION.

SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD LINGER INTO 
MONDAY EVENING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE THE SUBSIDENCE 
BROUGHT ON BY A SURFACE HIGH PASSING JUST SOUTH OF NEW YORK ENDS 
THIS THREAT. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. 
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LOWER SURFACE TEMPERATURES MONDAY FROM THE 
MID 20S INTO THE TEENS THEN DROPPING INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS FOR 
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT.  

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST ON 
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER BUT WARMER STORM QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM 
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLORADO LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN WHILE CUTTING 
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM 
WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST GULF SOURCED AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS 
THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH 
PRECIP WILL BE STARTING AS A WIDESPREAD SNOW EVEN ON TUESDAY 
AFTERNOON...WARMER AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CHANGE A FAIR 
PORTION OF THE PRECIP OVER TO RAIN. THERE MAY BE SOME 
SNOW/SLEET/FRZG RAIN AT TIMES DURING THE TRANSITION FROM FROZEN TO 
LIQUID PRECIP AND SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE SNOW OR A 
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. TEMPS WILL RISE FROM THE 20S LATE TUESDAY 
AFTERNOON TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF NEW YORK WEST OF 
THE GENESEE VALLEY DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT 
HOURS. 

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ON A DOWNWARD SLIDE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING 
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...CHANGING THE PRECIP BACK FROM COLD 
RAIN TO WET SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE TEMPERATURES 
WILL FALL FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S EARLY IN THE MORNING TO THE MID 
20S BY THE END OF THE ACROSS WESTERN NY...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY 
WILL HAVE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPS FALLING TO 
LOWER 30S LATE IN THE DAY. 

MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN 
ARCTIC FRONT AND TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS WITH 
SOME SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE 
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED 
TO FORM ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO TO CENTRAL NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE 
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR 
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW REMAINS 
IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY AS 
MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED EAST AND SOUTH OF NEW YORK 
ON WEDNESDAY COULD STALL ALONG THE APPALACHIAN RANGE THURSDAY. A WAVE 
OF LOW PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH MAY TRY TO 
WORK NORTH ALONG THE FRONT WITH A CHANCE THAT SOME SNOW EXTENDS INTO 
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL KEEP GENERALLY DRY 
CONDITIONS. LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLIPPER 
SYSTEM TRACKING EAST JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE 
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR NOW A WEEK OUT.  

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP 
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK 
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO 
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT AND TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT. IF ENOUGH 
SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE POSSIBLY CLIPPER LOW NEXT 
WEEKEND TEMPERATURES SATURDAY COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING 
WITH VSBYS DETERIORATING TO IFR AS THE SNOW DEVELOPS. WIDESPREAD IFR 
CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY 
AND MUCH OF TONIGHT. CIGS WILL BE A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR THROUGH 
MIDDAY. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO 
SATURATE CIGS SHOULD DROP TO AT LEAST MVFR...WITH IFR BECOMING MORE 
LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK... 
MONDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO 
VFR. 
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR LATE WITH A WINTRY
MIX DEVELOPING. 
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX
CHANGING TO RAIN. BECOMING WINDY. 
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW 
ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT WITH THIS 
SYSTEM...BUT THEN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE 
DEEPENS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS 
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE 
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 
CONDITIONS TO THE AREAS OF LAKE ONTARIO THAT STILL HAVE OPEN WATER.

ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY 
AS A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE 
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGHER END 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS. 
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE 
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO 
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER 
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE 
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934. 

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW 
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE 
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW 
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW 
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY... 
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH 
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF 
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD 
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES. 
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH 
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE 
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL 
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW 
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS 
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF 
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY... 
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH 
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF 
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH 
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES. 
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH 
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F 
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS 
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL 
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS 
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO 
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS 
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY... 
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES 
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE 
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ019>021.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/TMA
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK





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