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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 191120
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
720 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL DRIFT 
EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFF THE 
COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL NOT ONLY PROVIDE US WITH FAIR 
WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BUT THE CLOCKWISE 
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH WILL PUMP NOTABLY WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR 
REGION FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL 
BE MORE TYPICAL OF THE SECOND HALF OF AUGUST. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL 
THEN LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL 
DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. 
THIS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH 
H85 TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SUPPORTING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN 
THE 60S. 

TONIGHT...THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A 
SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL PUSH A 
DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE 
FAIR DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH A DEEPENING 
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE WARMER FLOW WILL BE 
HIGHLIGHTED BY A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL HELP TO HOLD OUR 
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S (UP 40S LEWIS CO) DURING THE OVERNIGHT 
HOURS. THESE OVERNIGHT READINGS WILL AVERAGE SOME 15 DEG F HIGHER 
THAN THOSE FROM EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND 
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE 
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO AND 
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. AT THIS POINT... 
IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE UPSTREAM LOW WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO OUR 
NORTH AND WEST TO ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DRY DAY...SAVE FOR A SLIGHT 
CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. 
IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER...A SLUG OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CIRCULATING 
NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE WILL BRING 
SOME CLOUDS TO PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY DURING 
THE MORNING...OTHERWISE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED 
WITH OUR REGION SITUATED WITHIN THE DEEPENING WARM SECTOR OF THE 
SLOWLY ENCROACHING LOW.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THE STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION 
PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION WILL HELP TO PUMP 850 MB READINGS UP TO 
THE +10C TO +13C RANGE BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH THE 
AFOREMENTIONED SUNSHINE AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL 
PROMOTE INCREASINGLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AND RESULTANT GOOD MIXING... 
THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO SUMMERTIME 
LEVELS. EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN MANY 
AREAS...EXCEPT ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE 
READINGS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE WARMEST 
READINGS OF ALL WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN 
NEW YORK...WHERE THE AIRMASS WILL BE WARMEST...SKIES WILL BE 
SUNNIEST...AND GOOD DOWNSLOPING FROM A STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 
BREEZE WILL GIVE TEMPS AN ADDED BOOST. IF THINGS WORK OUT RIGHT... 
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS IN THIS LATTER REGION 
BREACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...IT WILL BE BREEZY AS 
WELL WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS THE 30-35 MPH RANGE LIKELY ACROSS 
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...DEEPENING LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING WILL DIG 
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE ITS ATTENDANT COMPLEX SURFACE 
REFLECTION SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE. IN THE PROCESS... 
THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL PUSH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN 
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING SUNDAY. LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND 
MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT STILL APPEAR PLENTY SUFFICIENT TO 
SUPPORT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... 
WHEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 
SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY. AT THIS POINT...WILL CONTINUE TO COVER THE 
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH A SWATH OF HIGH LIKELY POPS 
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH DRY SLOTTING BEHIND THE FRONT 
THEN LEADING TO A NOTICEABLE WEST-EAST REDUCTION IN SHOWER CHANCES 
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE-WISE...VERY MILD CONDITIONS WILL 
PERSIST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH OUR REGION REMAINING FIRMLY WITHIN THE 
WARM SECTOR AND CONSEQUENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN READINGS DROPPING NO 
LOWER THAN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. INCREASED CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION 
COVERAGE ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL THEN HELP TO HOLD 
READINGS DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES ON SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS 
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. 

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS ACROSS THE 
REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SECONDARY SWATH OF WRAPAROUND 
MOISTURE. THIS WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ANOTHER ROUND OF 
MUCH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHILE STEADY COOL AIR ADVECTION FORCES 
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TO CLOSE OUT 
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS 
EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...WITH THE RESULTANT COOL 
CYCLONIC FLOW LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 
THE COOLEST WEATHER WILL BE ON MONDAY...WHEN 850 MB TEMPS WITHIN A 
FEW DEGREES OF ZERO CELSIUS WILL ONLY BE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE 
MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS. 

WHILE THIS AIRMASS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...IT WILL ALSO BE RATHER 
DRY...WITH THE BULK OF ANY MOISTURE LARGELY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 5 
KFT OR SO OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THIS WILL SERVE TO GREATLY LIMIT 
SHOWER CHANCES...WITH THE BULK OF THESE MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE 
PASSAGE OF A TRAILING SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY AND A SECONDARY SURFACE 
TROUGH LATER MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...WITH THE LATTER PRIMARILY 
AFFECTING NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL JUST KEEP 
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS IN PLAY AS APPROPRIATE...WITH ANY LAKE RESPONSE 
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERELY LIMITED BY BOTH THE DRY NATURE OF THE 
AIRMASS AND RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS. 

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND 
THURSDAY AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS. 
PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD 
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND A NICE RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES...WITH 
DAYTIME HIGHS WARMING TO AROUND 70 DEGREES OR SO BY THE END OF THE 
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS 
MORNING...MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MIDDAY AND 
AFTERNOON. AFTER A FEW MORE HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SRN 
TIER (THRU ABOUT 14Z)...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WILL PRODUCE VFR 
FLYING WEATHER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 

FOR TONIGHT...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRESENT THE RISK 
FOR SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. WILL MENTION THIS LATE IN THE TAF 
PERIOD FOR THE FAR WESTERN SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE 
EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK... 
SATURDAY...VFR. 
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY. 
THIS WILL PRODUCE AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH 
NEGLIGIBLE WAVES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER CANADIAN WATERS OF LK 
ONTARIO WHERE SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL PRODUCE WAVES THAT WILL 
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. 

WINDS WILL FRESHEN AND VEER TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY 
AS THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL 
START TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS COULD 
RESULT IN SOME WIND BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...WITH THE HIGHEST 
WAVES BEING CONCENTRATED IN CANADIAN WATERS.

SUNDAY WILL BE UNSETTLED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AS THE PASSAGE 
OF A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY 
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ007-008.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ006.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH







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