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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 292132
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
532 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION WILL GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN 
SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...USHERING 
IN COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
SYSTEM WILL POTENTIALLY TRANSITION INTO THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE 
SEASON BY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWING A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN 
QUICKLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OFF LAKE ERIE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE 
TO COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT AND 
CONVERGENCE AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE LOWER LAKES. THE 
BAND WILL MOVE ONSHORE ALONG MUCH OF THE LAKE ERIE SHORE FROM 
BUFFALO TO CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY OVER THE NEXT HOUR...THEN PUSH INLAND 
AND FALL APART BY MID EVENING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL 
SHORTWAVE AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW QUICKLY VEERS NORTHWEST. OFF LAKE 
ONTARIO NOTHING HAS FORMED YET...BUT EXPECT SHOWERS TO BLOSSOM OVER 
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SCALE CONDITIONS SPREAD EAST. 
THIS SHOULD SET UP ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION THEN PUSH TO THE 
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE LAKE AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH VEERING LOW 
LEVEL FLOW. 

NEITHER OF THESE BANDS WILL BE IN PLACE LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY 
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS OFF LAKE ERIE MAY 
SEE A QUICK QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH. AFTER MIDNIGHT BOUNDARY 
LAYER FLOW VEERS FURTHER TO NORTHWEST...WITH WEAK SPRINKLES AND 
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES DUE TO SHORT FETCH DESPITE COOLING 
TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

THURSDAY...LOW TO MID LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS WEAK UPSTREAM RIDGE 
EASES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS AND 
BEGINS TO BACK MORE WESTERLY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ANY WEST 
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS START TO WIND DOWN AS EARLY 
AS MIDDAY WITH A MUCH GREATER DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON.
SOME VERY LIMITED SUNSHINE FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DO LITTLE TO HELP TEMPERATURES AS A COLD
AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE REGION. HIGHS LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS WILL BE ON A POTENT 
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE DIVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES OUT OF WESTERN ONTARIO. HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT BE YOUR
TYPICAL CLIPPER AS FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL BE HIGHLY
MERIDIONAL AND INFLUENCED BY STEEP RIDGING ACROSS THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST. THE PROSPECTS FOR SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN OR NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS WEEKEND ARE LOOKING
DIMMER AS THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THIS UPPER LOW
WILL TAKE A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. THIS SUBTLE DIFFERENCE WILL HAVE THE EFFECT
OF PLACING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK UNDER GREATER INFLUENCE OF
MILDER MARITIME AIR FLOWING OFF THE ATLANTIC DURING THE PERIOD OF
GREATEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
850MB TEMPS NOW RUNNING AROUND -2C...AS OPPOSED TO EARLIER RUNS
THAT WERE MORE AGGRESSIVE ON BRINGING COLDER ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND 
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW LOCATED JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST...EXPECT 
THURSDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR 
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN RAMP UP DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE 
SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF INTO AN COMPACT UPPER LOW CENTER OVER WESTERN 
OHIO AND WESTERN NEW YORK COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A COMBINATION 
OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND MODEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH ANY 
PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING 
WELL INTO THE 40S.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...IT NOW APPEARS THAT MILDER MARITIME AIR WILL 
LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. 
EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY BE SUB-FREEZING...LOW LEVEL 
READINGS APPEAR TO BE JUST ENOUGH ABOVE FREEZING...AND MORE 
IMPORTANTLY SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE NOW ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR 
ENOUGH ABOVE FREEZING SUCH THAT IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR 
DYNAMIC COOLING PROCESSES TO PUSH THE WET BULB ZERO TEMPERATURE TO 
THE SURFACE...A NECESSARY PRE-REQUISUTE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS. 
NONETHELESS...IT IS STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT LEAVING AT LEAST A 
RAIN-SNOW MIX IN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER FOR 
NOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS 
LIKELY AMOUNTING TO NOT MUCH MORE THAN A COATING OF WET SNOW. AS FOR 
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL CARRY ONLY CHANCE POPS 
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE AREA WILL LARGELY ESCAPE THE DEEPER 
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND FORCING AND ALSO WILL NOT BE SUBJECT TO LAKE 
INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW. AS WITH 
THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER 
30S.

THE RACE ON SATURDAY WILL BE BETWEEN DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE THAT 
WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION AS OUR UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE 
EAST COAST AND COLDER AIR FILTERING SOUTH FROM CANADA AS NORTHERLY 
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE 
DEPARTING LOW. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GENERATE LIMITED LAKE EFFECT 
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK..WITH THE LIMITING FACTORS BEING 
SHORT FETCH ACROSS THE LATITUDINAL AXIS OF THE LAKE AND AN INCREASING 
DEARTH OF MOISTURE ALOFT. WHILE ME WAY SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS 
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD 
STAY JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL ENTIRELY AS A COLD 
RAIN...WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLAKES MIXING IN SATURDAY EVENING AS 
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. HOWEVER...AT THAT POINT THE 
MID-LEVELS WILL BE DRYING TO THE POINT THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE 
WINDING DOWN. WITH COLD AND DRY AIR DESCENDING ACROSS THE REGION 
FROM THE NORTH...WINTER'S CHILL WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE FORECAST 
AREA WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 20S INLAND FROM THE LAKES...WITH 
READINGS RUNNING IN THE LOWER 30S NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH THE EFFECTS OF 
A DEEP COASTAL LOW SUNDAY...WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL 
BE ENTERING A PERIOD OF BENIGN WEATHER AS A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE 
CENTRAL UNITED STATES TRANSLATES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. COOL 
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP 
CONDITIONS COOL AND CLOUDY ON SUNDAY AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS WILL 
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...THE 
REGION SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS THE 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE 
EAST COAST...OPENING UP THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO WARM SOUTHERLY 
RETURN FLOW. ALAS THE MILD WEATHER WILL COME AT A PRICE AS WARM 
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL GENERATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH 
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO NEXT 
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND THE NEXT 
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE 
CURRENTLY IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS 
IT LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY 
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SHARP SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL 
DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENTS TIGHTEN ACROSS THE 
NATION'S MID-SECTION AS WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS 
THE EASTERN U.S. ENCOUNTERS MILDER PACIFIC AIR ADVECTING SOUTHEAST 
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE TOP OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE 
GREAT BASIN. TUESDAY COULD END UP BEING A VERY MILD DAY ACROSS 
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY CLIMBING 
INTO THE LOWER 60S AS WARM AIR SURGES POLEWARD ACROSS THE REGION IN 
ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY 
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK NEAR THE END OF OUR FORECAST 
PERIOD...TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COOL WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN 
SHOWERS OFF LAKE ERIE THROUGH MID EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BRUSH 
BY THE KBUF AIRFIELD...FOR WHICH A BRIEF MVFR TEMPO GROUP WILL BE IN 
PLACE FOR THIS EVENING. BEHIND A SHORTWAVE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO 
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN BAND OFF LAKE ERIE DROPPING 
SOUTHWARD...AND TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIER LATER THIS EVENING WITH 
AREAS OF MVFR. 

OFF LAKE ONTARIO EXPECT A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS TO FORM BY MID 
EVENING...THIS BAND LIKEWISE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS AREAS EAST 
OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD WITH LOCAL MVFR.

CIGS WILL LARGELY BE VFR THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...THOUGH SOME 
INSTANCES OF MVFR WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY LAKE EFFECT 
RAIN BANDS. THESE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN WILL DIMINISH IN 
INTENSITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP...AND LOW 
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS. 

BY LATE TONIGHT SOME IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER 
AS LOW LEVEL SYNOPTIC MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH MOISTURE FROM LAKE 
EFFECT RAIN FORM LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE 
SOUTHERN TIER. CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW. 

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS 
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY FRIDAY...WITH 
FURTHER DETERIORATION TO IFR/MVFR AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER 
TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. 
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS. 
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY WILL ADVANCE ACROSS 
NORTHERN QUEBEC PROVINCE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. BRISK WESTERLY WINDS 
OF THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS 
ON THE LAKES INTO THIS EVENING. 

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY AND PRODUCE 
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE 
LOWER LAKES. 

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AS WEAK LOW 
PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE 
ENERGY FROM THIS LOW WILL COMBINE WITH A COASTAL LOW TO FORM A DEEP 
NORTHEAST COASTAL STORM OVER THE WEEKEND. STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY 
COMPONENT WINDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING 
ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS BACK TO THE LOWER LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR 
         LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/TMA
MARINE...TMA





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