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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 240329
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1029 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM 
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES 
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND 
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF 
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS 
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE 
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE 
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE EVENING AND 
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE WARMING WILL BE THE CONTINUED MELT 
OF HEAVY SNOWPACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. WIDESPREAD 
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...ADDING TO THE 
EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAIN IS ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE 
FORECAST AREA. I HAVE BUMPED THE QPF UP A BIT FROM ABOUT A TENTH TO 
A TENTH TO NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH. STILL LOOKING AT DIMINISHED 
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS LESSENING THE LOW 
LEVEL LIFT. 

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED 
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW 
LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR 
WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN 
INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE 
LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE 
SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A 
PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND 
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS... 
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE 
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED 
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO 
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY. 

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS 
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG 
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST 
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC 
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN 
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN 
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60 
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE. 
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF 
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH 
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE 
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF 
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH 
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER 
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS 
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE 
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING 
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL 
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE 
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE 
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C 
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE 
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR 
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW 
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG 
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN 
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE 
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING- 
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE 
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO 
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH 
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG... 
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE 
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE 
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT 
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE 
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING 
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES 
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING 
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY. 

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF 
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE 
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY 
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING 
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP 
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION 
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH 
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW 
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS 
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL 
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS 
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE 
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD 
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN 
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE 
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH 
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE 
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME 
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS 
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS 
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE 
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A 
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING 
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE 
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD 
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF 
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT 
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS 
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT 
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT 
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS 
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE 
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY 
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS 
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY. 

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS 
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING'S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE 
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH 
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND 
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE 
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE 
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW 
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN 
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL 
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW. 

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE 
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD 
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE 
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE 
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES 
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A 
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A 
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER 
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE 
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS 
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH 
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY WILL LEAD TO STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG LLJ MOVES
OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NOSE OF THIS
JET WILL ALSO MARK THE LEADING A BROADER AREA OF RAINFALL PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE REGION AND IFR CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY WILL PRECEDE THE APPROACHING LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE 
SOUTHERN TIER...AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE HILLS WILL 
ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUD DEPTH WITH MVFR CEILINGS DOMINATING FROM 
KBUF TO KART.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE 
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE 
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS... 
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM BUFFALO TO 
RIPLEY TONIGHT. 

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY 
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD 
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH 
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE 
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR 
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE 
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY 
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-
     005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR 
         LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR 
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST 
         TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH







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