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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 280848
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
348 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY...FOLLOWED ON THURSDAY BY AN 
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING A FEW INCHES OF WIDESPREAD SNOW 
TO NEW YORK. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN LATER FRIDAY 
AND CROSS THE STATE SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY A DEEPENING LOW WILL BRING A 
THREAT FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW INTO MONDAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW 
WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED 
OVER INDIANA ALONG WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK IS HELPING TEMPERATURES 
DROP THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS THIS MORNING. PARTS OF WESTERN AND 
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK HAVE EVEN PUSHED BELOW ZERO. THE HIGH 
PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY MAKING FOR
A VERY PLEASANT LATE JANUARY DAY THROUGHOUT THE REGION AND ACROSS 
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES 
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL HOWEVER WITH HIGHS ONLY RISING TO WITHIN A 
FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 20. THE TUG HILL MAY BE THE ONLY 
EXCEPTION REMAINING IN THE LOW TEENS.

TONIGHT THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSES ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA WITH SURFACE
RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS NEW YORK TO QUEBEC. CLEAR SKIES IN 
THE EVENING WILL AGAIN ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF QUICKLY. AN 
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ARRIVAL OF CLOUD COVER ALOFT AHEAD OF 
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST LATER OVERNIGHT SHOULD HELP KEEP 
LOW TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING THIS 
MORNING BUT NOT BY MUCH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES 
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES 
THURSDAY WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONG WARM 
AIR ADVECTIVE PATTERN/ASCENT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE LOW THURSDAY AND 
PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. INITIALLY THERE WILL BE QUITE A 
BIT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT MAKE 
TAKE SEVERAL HOURS TO TOP DOWN SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO GET 
SNOW GOING. THIS THINKING WOULD BRING THE GREATEST RISK FOR 
ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. 

ACCUMULATIONS...GETS QUITE WARM ALOFT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE 
0C 850 MB ISOTHERM NOSING INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER WHICH WOULD SUGGEST 
FAIRLY LOW SNOW TO WATER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 8-12:1. THIS WILL 
LIKELY HOLD AMOUNTS DOWN IN THE 1 TO 2 INCHES RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE 
AREA...BUT PERHAPS A 3-5 INCH ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THURSDAY 
NIGHT AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE LOW.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...SYSTEM CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST FOLLOWED 
BY FAIRLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION/GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR 
FRIDAY... BEFORE DIMINISHING FRIDAY NIGHT. AS -16C TO -20C 850 MB 
AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES FRIDAY...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS IN 
THE FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT 
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH INCOMING AIRMASS WILL 
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DRY AND SHOULD LIMIT ANY SUBSTANTIAL LAKE 
EFFECT SNOWFALL. LIMITED NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE 
FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH ANY ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS 
VERY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO IN MANY 
AREAS EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND 
COLD TEMPS MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS FRIDAY 
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW MAY STILL SUPPORT A FEW LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES OR 
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT 
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND PROVIDE 
A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER. 

THE OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER 
THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH THE HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY AND 
MONDAY. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF TAKE A SURFACE LOW FROM THE LOWER 
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY TO TO THE MID ATLANTIC OR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 
MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH INTERACT AND PHASE. 
THIS TRACK AND STREAM INTERACTION WOULD PRODUCE A SOLID SHIELD OF 
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK...INCLUDING OUR 
ENTIRE REGION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL 
OF SPREAD AMONGST THE 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLES WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK 
OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH SOME MEMBERS KEEPING THIS SYSTEM SUPPRESSED 
AND WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA...AND SOME WITH TIMING ALMOST 24 HOURS 
DIFFERENT THAN THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. GIVEN THIS ENSEMBLE 
UNCERTAINTY AND THE TIME RANGE...THIS SYSTEM IS STILL RELATIVELY LOW 
CONFIDENCE. NONETHELESS WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUPPORT HAVE 
INCREASED POPS INTO THE LOW LIKELY RANGE.  

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ENTERS THE REGION 
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT EVENT...BUT OBVIOUSLY THIS IS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE BEING 7 DAYS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THIS 
MORNING THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM INDIANA. SKC WILL 
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS 
POSSIBLY WORKING IN FOR EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM 
SYSTEM APPROACHING OUR REGION.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...IFR IN SNOW BY AFTERNOON. 
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
SUNDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FOUND ACROSS OUR REGION THIS 
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM INDIANA. THE WIND 
DIRECTION WILL SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY TO 
THE SOUTH BY THURSDAY WITH WAVES BUILDING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF LAKE 
ONTARIO. THURSDAY NIGHT WINDS VEER BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH A 
CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AGAIN.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH







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