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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 311356
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
956 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE 
DAYS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IN THE 
MEANTIME...THE COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT A PASSING SHOWER 
OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH CONTINUES WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY 
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY THIS MORNING.  ONE STRONG 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW AND WILL BE EAST OF 
WESTERN NY BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.   

A LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE ERIE WILL REFORM LATER THIS MORNING. 
ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY FIRE UP OVER WESTERN NY AGAIN 
THIS AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE LAKES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN 
FROM NIAGARA COUNTY TO WAYNE COUNTY.  ANY CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN 
TOWARD SUNSET.

THE CONTINUED COOL AIR IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPRESS 
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE END OF JULY 
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND WARMING ALOFT...
EXPECT A DRY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN CANADA 
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL 
SUITE THAT SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS 
TROUGH WILL UNDERGO SOME AMPLIFICATION AS IT TRACKS FROM THE THE 
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SUBTLE COOLING 
ALOFT AND FAIRLY GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUALITY WILL LEAD TO MODEST 
DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY....SUPPORTIVE OF 
THE CURRENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LIKELY TIMING BOTH 
DAYS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE LOOKS TO BE 
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE THERMAL PROFILE AND THE EXPECTED MIXING 
HEIGHTS WILL MAINTAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE 
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FULL CONUS 500MB TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE 
NORTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY 
GFS/ECMWF TO SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND 
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 
INCHES WILL KEEP A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WINDOW OF FLAT RIDGING AND 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BRING DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY FOR MOST 
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO 
THEN AGAIN EXHIBIT A DEEPENING BUT THIS TIME PROGRESSIVE GREAT LAKES 
TROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH BRINGS BACK CHANCES OF 
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO MID NEXT WEEK. A PACIFIC SOURCED UPPER FLOW 
PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT OUT OF THE REGION THIS 
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE 
BREEZE BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON.  EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...ISOLATED 
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  ANY 
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. AREAS UNDER 
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY SEE SOME CEILINGS DOWN TO 3K FT AND VSBY 
1-2SM. SCT-BKN 8-10K FT CLOUD BASES EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH 
MAY HAVE TO BE WARY OF VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHERN TIER 
LATE TONIGHT IF THERE IS SIGNIFICANT CLEARING. 

OUTLOOK... 
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY THE EXCELLENT GUIDANCE OFFERED BY THE 
SZILAGYI NOMOGRAM. OUR H85 TEMPS IN THE VICINITY OF 9C COMBINED WITH 
A CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 30K SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY 
OF WATERSPOUTS. THESE HAVE BEEN IN THE FORECAST FOR SOME TIME NOW 
AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL THUS CARRY 
THE RISK OF A WATERSPOUT. 

WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. 
MARINERS SHOULD BE ALERT TO SHORT FUSED SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS THAT 
ARE BASED ON HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD BEAR 
WATERSPOUTS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/ZAFF
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/ZAFF
MARINE...FRANKLIN/ZAFF







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