Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Buffalo, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KBUF 271803
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
103 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES 
REGION TONIGHT...AND BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS...WITH HIGHEST 
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HILLS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...AND TO THE 
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 
FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING NOTICEABLY MILDER FOR SATURDAY AND THROUGH 
THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR 
LIGHT RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS EACH WEEKEND DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS THIS AFTERNOON DISPLAY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SE 
OF LAKE ONTARIO AND MOVING THROUGH OSWEGO COUNTY WITH SCATTERED SNOW 
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE UNDER THE COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. GREATEST 
ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH OR SO THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS 
WILL BE SE OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND ALSO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NYS 
WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW COULD INTENSIFY THESE SNOW SHOWERS SOME. 

A SHORTWAVE FOUND OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL 
PUSH SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY AND CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. 
THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF 
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...WITH DEEPENING COLD AIR AND A 
RISING CAP PROMOTING MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH 
LAKES. AS THE CAP LIFTS TO ARND 15K FT TONIGHT...A NORTHWEST FLOW 
FEATURING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SHOULD BE ABLE TO 
SUPPORT ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL WITH RATES OF A HALF TO ONE INCH 
PER HOUR. THE LAKE SNOW OFF ERIE WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE CHAUTAUQUA 
RIDGE...AND SHOULD BE GREATEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE WEE 
HOURS OF TONIGHT WHEN THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL BE THE DEEPEST. 
WILL THUS GO WITH A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR 3-5 INCH ACCUMS 
FOR CHAUTAUQUA...CATTARAUGUS...WYOMING (MAINLY SW) AND SRN ERIE 
COUNTIES.

WHILE SIMILAR INSTABILITY AND OVERALL THERMAL PROFILE WILL BE 
SIMILAR OVER LK ONTARIO...THERE IS A STRONG SUGGESTION FROM THE 
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE THAT AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION WILL BE IN PLACE TO 
GEORGIAN BAY. THIS WILL PRIME THE BAND SO THAT SOMEWHAT MORE 
EFFICIENT SNOW MAKING WILL BE POSSIBLE. A LAKE SNOW ADVISORY WILL BE 
ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST OF LK ONTARIO AS WELL...WITH ACCUMS OF 3 TO 6 
INCHES EXPECTED FROM NRN/ERN WAYNE COUNTY EAST TO OSWEGO COUNTY.  

OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS OUR REGION 
TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE MORE 
PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF LK ONTARIO AND ALONG THE LK ERIE 
SHORE TO THE LOWER 20S WELL INLAND ACROSS THE SRN TIER AND FOR SITES 
GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE TUG HILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY 
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE 
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...A NORTHWESTERLY 
FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS 
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES DURING THE MORNING...WITH THIS 
ACTIVITY THEN SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD AND WEAKENING IN THE 
AFTERNOON AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AND SUBSIDENCE/DRYING 
INCREASE. 

OFF LAKE ERIE...THE LAKE SNOWS WILL GENERALLY BE MORE SCATTERED AND 
LESS ORGANIZED IN NATURE THANKS TO A SHORTER FETCH AND A LOWER CAP 
OF AROUND 4 KFT...WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO TO KEEP ANY ADDITIONAL 
ACCUMULATIONS CONFINED TO THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR SO. MEANWHILE OFF 
LAKE ONTARIO...THE COMBINATION OF A LONGER FETCH...A MUCH HIGHER CAP 
OF 8-10 KFT...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN MORE ORGANIZED/ 
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A COUPLE MORE INCHES OF 
ACCUMULATION DURING THE MORNING...BEFORE THESE DRIFT NORTHWARD AND 
WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE MAINTAINED THE 
AFOREMENTIONED LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE WAYNE-OSWEGO COUNTY 
CORRIDOR THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. 

OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY AND 
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS 
AVERAGING AROUND -13C/-14C...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE 
WITH READINGS ONLY PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN...AND IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE 
EAST AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE...WHILE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM 
THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IN 
CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING SHEAR...THE RESULTANT WARM AIR ADVECTION 
REGIME SHOULD HELP TO SQUELCH ANY LEFTOVER SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT 
SNOW SHOWERS AS THESE LIFT TO AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES FRIDAY 
EVENING. AFTER THAT...A MUCH MORE GENERAL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 
SHOULD THEN FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY... 
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTS 
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION. AT THIS POINT A CONSENSUS OF THE 
00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE 
RATHER BROAD/WEAK AND ONLY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT 
QPF...SO HAVE TRENDED POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME MARKEDLY DOWNWARD TO 
THE LOWER HALF OF THE CHANCE RANGE.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...EXPECT FRIDAY 
NIGHT'S LOWS TO PREDOMINANTLY OCCUR DURING THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY 
NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY RISING TEMPS THEN FOLLOWING FROM THE SECOND 
HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT RIGHT ON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT... 
WE SHOULD SEE LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S FRIDAY NIGHT 
GIVING WAY TO HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH 
READINGS THEN WARMING EVEN FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT. IN CONJUNCTION 
WITH WARMING ALOFT...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ANY WARM ADVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY 
NIGHT...THEN MIXING WITH AND EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN 
SHOWERS THROUGH THE COURSE OF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. 

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT THE WARMEST CONDITIONS OF THE WEEKEND WITH OUR 
REGION SITUATED SQUARELY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW PRESSURE 
LIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO WESTERN QUEBEC. UNDER A DEEP 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...925 MB TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND +4C EAST AND 
AROUND +9C WEST...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS REACHING THE 
LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE 
NORTH COUNTRY WHICH SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S. 
OTHERWISE...WITH ANY FORCING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR REMAINING RATHER 
WEAK AND DIFFUSE IN NATURE...EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL 
WITH JUST A LOWER-END CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS 
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. 

THIS PERIOD WILL THEN END WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES COMING TO AN 
END SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SWEEPS ITS TRAILING 
COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION. THIS FRONT MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF 
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION...WHICH COULD MIX WITH A LITTLE LIGHT 
SNOW LATE AS TEMPS COOL OFF.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON MONDAY...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD 
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THROUGH THE DAY AS THIS FEATURE 
DEPARTS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN ITS WAKE...A FRESH NORTHWESTERLY 
FLOW OF MUCH COLDER AIR MAY HELP TO GENERATE SOME LIMITED LAKE 
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER 
THESE SHOULD QUICKLY END ALTOGETHER BY TUESDAY MORNING AS STRONG 
SURFACE BASED RIDGING AND ATTENDANT DRYING/SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ACROSS 
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY 
WEATHER ON TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS A RENEWED 
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 18Z MVFR/VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE PROMINENT ACROSS THE FORECAST 
REGION WITH ISOLATED IFR FOUND IN SNOW SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL 
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THIS WILL BRING AN 
INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF 
LAKE ONTARIO. MORE WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IN THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE 
ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILLS OF SW NYS. IFR FLIGHT 
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THESE 
HILLS...WITH MUCH OF THE REGION THEN RETURNING TO MVFR/VFR AS THE 
SNOW TAPERS OFF. 

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR 
CONDITIONS EAST OF THE LAKES. 
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW 
SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY 
WHILE A NOR'EASTER WILL EXITING ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS 
WILL ALLOW THE SFC PRESSURE TO WEAKEN ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO 
SO THAT WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. 

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES 
TONIGHT. A MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH SOME COLD ADVECTION TO FRESHEN THE WINDS 
ON BOTH LAKES...WITH WINDS AND WAVES POSSIBLY REACHING SCA CRITERIA. 

WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM 
THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE ONTARIO WITH 
WAVES LIKELY REACHING 5 FEET ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS. AGAIN...A SCA 
FOR THIS PERIOD CAN BE ISSUED IN A LATER FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD DURING THE MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER IT 
APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF THE TIME OVER 
THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THERE WILL BE BRIEF PUSHES OF COLDER AIR AT 
TIMES AS PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS AMPLIFY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT 
THESE COLD PERIODS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...ONLY LASTING FOR A FEW DAYS 
AT A TIME...AND WILL BE OUTNUMBERED BY MILD DAYS.

LOOKING AT THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN...A POSITIVE NORTH ATLANTIC 
OSCILLATION /NAO/ WILL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER 
BASED ON THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE 
NORTH ATLANTIC IN SUCH A PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY COLD FROM LOCKING 
IN OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES. THE PACIFIC 
NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN /PNA/ WILL REMAIN NEGATIVE THROUGH THE FIRST 
FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER...BEFORE TRENDING POSITIVE BASED ON GEFS 
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THIS TOO WILL PREVENT COLD FROM LOCKING INTO THE 
NORTHEAST FOR MORE THAN A FEW DAYS AT A TIME.

THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION /MJO/ MAY PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN 
DRIVING PATTERN CHANGE THROUGH MID DECEMBER. ANALYSIS OVER THE PAST 
WEEK HAS SHOWN A MODERATELY STRONG MJO EVENT DEVELOPING OVER THE 
INDIAN OCEAN. A GEFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE 
PLOT SHOWS THIS MJO ORBITING THROUGH PHASE 4 AND 5 DURING THE FIRST 
WEEK IN DECEMBER AS CONVECTION MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MARITIME 
CONTINENT. A LOOK AT COMPOSITE CHARTS OF PAST EVENTS FAVORS ABOVE 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED 
STATES DURING PHASE 4 THROUGH 6 OF THE MJO.

EVENTUALLY AS WE GET INTO THE SECOND WEEK IN DECEMBER MJO CONVECTION 
WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD ORBIT THROUGH THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE 
WESTERN HEMISPHERE. IF THE MJO CONVECTION PERSISTS ON ITS EASTWARD 
JOURNEY AND REACHES PHASE 7 OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE PLOT...IT 
WOULD FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS COLDER THAN NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MJO 
ACCOMPLISHES THIS AS SUB-TROPICAL CONVECTION INFLUENCES THE PATTERN 
OVER THE PACIFIC...FORCING AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTWARD EXTENSION 
OF THE EAST ASIAN JET WHICH IN TURN FORCES DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION 
OF THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. BASED ON THE FORECAST TIMING OF 
THE MJO EPISODE THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR BY WEEK 2 OR 3 OF 
DECEMBER AND FEED BACK INTO MORE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING AND MORE 
LONG LASTING COLD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST 
     FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ012-019-
     020-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...RSH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...RSH
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK







National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy