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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 212040
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
440 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS 
THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE A WARM FRONT 
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST. A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL 
LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN 
FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS 
EASTERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW 
ENGLAND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS 
ON SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON DISPLAYS A CLOSED UPPER 
LEVEL LOW LOCATED EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS 
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. AN ILL DEFINED 
WARM FRONT LIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS 
RESULTED IN A NICE STRATOCU DECK ACROSS MUCH OF WNY LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON ALONG AND INLAND OF THE LAKE BREEZES. MEANWHILE SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE 
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE 
ONTARIO REGIONS IN THE VICINITY OF A VERY SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT 
LYING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

A WEDGE OF DRIER AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS ANY 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR WNY. THEN AS THIS DRIER LAYER PUSHES 
EASTWARD IN COMBINATION WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND 
WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...SHOWERS AND ANY REMAINING 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT 
HOURS. 

AS THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS TONIGHT OVER THE REGION AND SURFACE WINDS 
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING 
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE 
THICKEST ACROSS THE DEEPER VALLEYS AND HILLS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW 
YORK STATE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

FRIDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST JUST OFF THE 
NEW ENGLAND COAST...YET CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP ENOUGH INSTABILITY 
PRESENT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE 
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY WILL BE 
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. THAT 
SAID...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED OUT JUST SOUTH OF NEW 
YORK STATE...BUT MAY BE JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF A FEW 
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TOWARD THE PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN ON TRACK...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 
MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS 
TOUCHING 80. TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH 
A CONTINUED MUGGINESS FEEL TO THE AIR...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE 
FOG FORMS. EXPECT ABOUT THE SAME AGAIN FOR HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE 
REGION TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOWER 
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP ATLANTIC 
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL 
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE FACTORS WILL BE 
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY 
BEFORE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO TILT ACROSS 
THE REGION. THIS WILL USHER IN A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE REGION 
WITH SUNDAY BEING DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY.

THE ADVECTION OF RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST MARITIME AIR OFF THE 
ATLANTIC ACROSS THE REGION WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES DURING THE 
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SATURDAY...WITH COOLER READINGS IN 
THE LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO 
SHORELINE WHILE LOW TO MID 60S WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY 
NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS 
TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB 
INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH FURTHER WARMING EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPANSIVE RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
MAINTAIN FOR THE MOST PART DRY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL 
AGREEMENT (OUTSIDE OF THE USUAL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND 
STRENGTH)THAT BY MID-WEEK THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID-WEST WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE THE 
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES THE 
LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURE WISE EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS DURING 
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 20Z MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION WITH A 
COUPLE ISOLATED SPOTS SEEING MVFR/LOW VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. A 
MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS 
RESULTED IN A NICE STRATOCU DECK OF MAINLY LOW VFR/ISOLATED MVFR 
CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF WNY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND INLAND OF THE 
LAKE BREEZES. 

A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WESTERN 
SOUTHERN TIER. MEANWHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL 
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS MONROE COUNTY AND POINTS 
EAST ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE BREEZE...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE 
FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGIONS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY THE EARLY 
OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. AS WINDS GO 
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT SOME PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AND 
LOW CIGS ARE LIKELY WITH MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING 
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. THE EXTENT OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY VERSUS 
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING IS SEEN EARLIER 
IN THE OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CLEARING WILL BE ACROSS 
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK.

FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE 
REGION THROUGH MID MORNING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY 
LATE MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTERIOR WESTERN SOUTHERN 
TIER AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY 
HANG IN TIL EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE 
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AND TOWARD THE 
PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE THROUGH 18Z. 

OUTLOOK... 
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. 
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL 
DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NEW YORK 
STATE. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE 
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THIS LOW TRACKS 
EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN 
IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM







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