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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 250838
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
438 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE 
ANOTHER DAY OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH COOL MORNING TEMPERATURES 
GIVING WAY TO A WARM AFTERNOON. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE 
REGION SATURDAY AND PRODUCE INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND A 
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. UNSETTLED 
WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES 
OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES DOMINATE THE REGION EARLY THIS 
MORNING. 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS 
OF VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND EXPECT THIS 
FOG TO REMAIN UNTIL AROUND 8-9AM ALONG THE UPPER REACHES OF THE 
ALLEGHENY AND GENESEE WATERSHEDS. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE 
ELSEWHERE AS WELL...MAINLY NEAR BODIES OF WATER. 

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE 
MID ATLANTIC...WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER 
LAKES. AN INITIAL WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL 
CLIP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. THIS 
MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS BUT THESE SHOULD STAY 
MAINLY NORTHEAST OF JEFFERSON COUNTY. OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME 
HIGH/THIN CIRRUS ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE 
NEXT WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT. NAM/GFS POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME 
LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE 5-7K FOOT LAYER...AND THIS MAY ALLOW 
SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY INLAND FROM THE 
STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE LAKES. NONE OF THIS SHOULD DETRACT FROM 
A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND +11C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN 
THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH LOWER 70S ON THE 
HILLTOPS.

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST 
ALLOWING SSW RETURN FLOW TO BEGIN ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. MID LEVEL 
WARM ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN NY LATER TONIGHT AND ALLOW 
FOR INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND A 
WEAK LEAD MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY EVEN PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT 
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES BY DAYBREAK WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. THE 
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER 
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON THE LAKE 
PLAINS OF WESTERN NY...AND LOWER 50S IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER 
VALLEYS AND LEWIS COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY WILL BEGIN WHAT WILL BE A RATHER UNSETTLED STRETCH OF 
WEATHER FOR THE NORTHEASTERN US. THE WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A 
TOTAL WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS...WITH SOME DRY TIME BUILT IN. ONE 
POSITIVE IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES 
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S 
ACROSS THE REGION. 

THE DETAILS...SATURDAY MORNING A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE 
LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF NEW YORK STATE. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF 
CLOUD COVER TO BE IN PLACE...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS 
WESTERN AREAS. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO CROSS THE 
REGION...POSSIBLY ONLY MAKING IT TO CENTRAL NEW YORK BY LATE IN THE 
DAY. THAT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A 
THUNDERSTORM IN FOR THE ENTIRE DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR 
MEASURABLE RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK SATURDAY 
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 70S 
TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL BE 
ON THE INCREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON...SO IT WILL FEEL A BIT MORE 
HUMID AS WELL. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE 
NEW YORK AND FINALLY PUSH THE WARM FRONT EAST OF THE AREA EARLY IN 
THE NIGHT...ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWING 
THROUGH THE REGION VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 
THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN 
THE FORECAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH 
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. 

SUNDAY IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEMS...ONE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA INTO NEW ENGLAND AND ANOTHER 
MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 
THERE WILL BE A BOUNDARY STRETCHING BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS OF LOW 
PRESSURE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF NEW YORK STATE. LATEST MODEL 
CONSENSUS SHOWS THAT A GOOD DEAL OF THE DAY MAY BE DRY. SEVERE 
WEATHER THREAT STILL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME AS BEST SHEAR AND 
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS STILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF 
THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE TO MONITORED CLOSELY AS THE LOCATION OF THE 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY SHIFT NORTHWARD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED 
SEVERE PARAMETERS COULD CHANGE THINGS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL 
AGAIN RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. SUNDAY NIGHT 
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL DROP INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE 
TROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW 
PRESSURE PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF NEW YORK WILL MEAN INCREASED 
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL 
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A BROAD 500MB 
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS 
IN THE FORECAST WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MONDAY HAS THE BEST 
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH EVEN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS A SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WHICH ARE MENTIONED IN THE SHORT 
TERM DISCUSSION PASSES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE EXTENT OF 
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING 
OF WHEN THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS NEW YORK. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT FASTER 
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. WHILE MOST OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY AND COOL 
THE INSTABILITY BROUGHT ON BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT 
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS ON TUESDAY 
THROUGH THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE WITH 
850MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW +10C. 

COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT BROUGHT ON BY -3SD 500MB HEIGHTS WILL 
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL 
AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LATE JULY AVERAGES. HIGH 
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS 
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. A PACIFIC SOURCED AIRMASS 
WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL ONLY RUN A 
FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER LAKES 
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY 
MORNING OUTSIDE OF SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND 12Z 
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXPECT VALLEY FOG TO FORM THROUGH 
DAYBREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS 
WITH LOCAL IFR. KJHW HAS A WIDE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION...SO IT APPEARS 
FOG WILL NOT IMPACT THAT TERMINAL. THE VALLEY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 
AROUND 13Z.

TODAY EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS 
DEVELOPING INLAND FROM THE LAKES...AND SOME HIGH/THIN CIRRUS WILL 
BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT HIGH 
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO A MID LEVEL DECK ACROSS WESTERN 
NY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. ANY 
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL NEAR 12Z. 

OUTLOOK... 
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY A TIMES ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR. 
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE FROM MIDDAY 
THROUGH AFTERNOON ON LAKE ERIE AND THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO. 
THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES FOR THE 
AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORY CRITERIA. EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH SATURDAY WITH 
WINDS OCCASIONALLY INCREASING INTO THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WILL CHOPPY 
CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







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