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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 221932
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
332 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING USHERING IN 
COLDER AIR AND BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WHICH 
MAY MIX WITH SNOW IN SPOTS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM 
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A SLOW MOVING 
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERSISTENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND 
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE 
BEHIND THIS A VORT MAX SPARKS SCATTERED SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...AREAS 
OF FOG WILL LINGER NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO UNTIL WINDS SHIFT TO 
THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO PREFER THE 
HRRR FOR NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE FOR TIMING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A STRONGER VORT MAX WHICH IS EMBEDDED IN A BROADER UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY REGIONS 
WHICH UPSLOPE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW. FOLLOWING A CONSENSUS OF HIGHER 
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE WHICH IS BEST SUITED TO CAPTURE THESE MESOSCALE 
FEATURES...THE STEADIEST SHOWERS SHOULD BE 06Z TO 12Z. FORECAST 
TEMPERATURES PROFILES COOL TO SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF 
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE 
FORECAST SATURATED LAYER ONLY COOLS TO ABOUT -8C...BUT WITH THE VORT MAX 
CROSSING SUSPECT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE TO SUPPORT 
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH DESPITE THE MARGINAL FORECAST HUMIDITY. IF 
NOT...DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY. FOR 
NOW...EXPECT PRIMARILY LIGHT RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW LATE TONIGHT. 
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S...SOME 
LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER 
TERRAIN.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY EXIT INTO NEW ENGLAND ON 
WEDNESDAY...BUT FAIRLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF 
THE DAY. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT FOR A BIT...BUT MAY FILL BACK IN 
WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS BEFORE CLEARING OUT FOR GOOD LATE IN THE DAY. 
ANY LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY NOON OR SO. 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S 
TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A MOIST CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START 
OF THE PERIOD WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LIKELY TIED 
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT 
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. WE MAY ALSO SEE A BIT OF MOISTURE FLUX OFF OF 
THE LAKES...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR TRUE LAKE 
EFFECT PROCESSES. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY FROM THE 
AREA DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE REMAINING CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD 
AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY CAUSE CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE 
DAY. DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON...THE LAKES WILL BECOME A 
STABILIZING INFLUENCE... RESULTING IN CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OVER THE 
LAKES AND LAKESHORE AREAS FIRST. THEN...THE CLEARING WILL SPREAD 
INLAND. IT WILL BE ESPECIALLY CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH 
HIGHS BARELY REACHING 50. THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE 
ACCOMPANIED BY A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH 
RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LEAD TO A 
DRY PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW 
LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN TO START THE 
EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SUNNY 
SKIES FOR THURSDAY. 

THE COOL AIRMASS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD NIGHT 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON THE 
LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID 20S IN THE COOLER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. 
THE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL 
FOR THURSDAY WITH BACK INTO THE MID 50S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH A BRIEF 
WARM-UP AT THE END OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY WELL BELOW AVERAGE 
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WARM 
OCCLUSION AT THE SURFACE WILL SWING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION 
WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS. THE RAIN SHOULD BE BRIEF AT ANY 
GIVEN LOCATION AND SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN 
NY. A WARMER AIRMASS WILL MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE INTO THE LOWER 
LAKES REGION WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS.

MODEL GUIDANCE QUICKLY DIVERGES WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE 
EVOLUTION OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AND 
MOST ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A TURN TOWARDS MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE 
ECMWF SWINGS A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL CUTOFF THROUGH ONTARIO AND 
QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON 
MONDAY...WITH A TROUGH DELIVERING A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE 
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE CUTOFF LOW IN THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE 
FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST TO KEEP OUR REGION MAINLY DRY.

THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND RETROGRADES THE CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY AND 
MONDAY...KEEPING IT OVER OR JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD BE 
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP MORE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES 
ACROSS OUR REGION...AND WITH THE COLDER AIR SOME OF THIS MAY BE IN 
THE FORM OF WET SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WITH SOME MIX OF SNOW AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEY A 
DRAMATIC IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS SHOULD 
LINGER AT ART THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DEW POINTS IN 
THE UPPER 40S MOVE ACROSS THE COLD LAKE ONTARIO WATERS AND RESULT IN 
LOW CIGS AND FOG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS BEHIND THE 
FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GENERALLY 
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/VFR.

AFTER THIS...A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LOWER CIGS. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOWERING CIGS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME SHOWERS...WHICH WILL MIX WITH SNOW AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE EXIT OF THE SHORTWAVE...WITH WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR. 
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP ON ALL OF THE LAKES...WITH A W-NW
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FLOW WILL BUILD WAVES TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE LONGER FETCH OF LAKE ONTARIO. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO NON-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR 
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL







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