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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 220624
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
224 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL BRIEFLY SETTLE IN BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD 
FRONT OVERNIGHT AND LINGER INTO MONDAY. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM TUESDAY ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE 
WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH AN 
EXTENDED PERIOD OF FINE EARLY FALL WEATHER...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES 
WARMING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS PROGRESSED INTO CENTRAL LAKE 
ONTARIO AND THE FINGER LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO 
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BULK 
OF THIS ACTIVITY FOUND OVER OR IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE 
ONTARIO...WHICH IS NO DOUBT HELPING TO CONTRIBUTE SOME ADDED 
INSTABILITY. THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY 
TO SLIDE FURTHER EAST WITH THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY 
WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES REMOVED FROM THE LAKE. 

MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE WEST...ANY ACTIVITY IS LIGHTER AND LOWER IN 
COVERAGE...WITH SURFACE OBS/RADARS/OTHER REPORTS SUGGESTING A MIX OF 
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE. EXPECT THIS TO GENERALLY CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...ALBEIT WITH A SUBTLE DIMINISHING 
TREND LATER ON AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FURTHER EAST AND 
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ENTER THE EQUATION AT THE LOWER LEVELS. 

OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY...BREEZY...AND COOL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT 
AS A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS SWEEPS INTO THE REGION ON A NORTHWESTERLY 
LOW LEVEL FLOW...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS LARGELY FALLING INTO THE 45 TO 
50 DEGREE RANGE. 

SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM WEST TO EAST 
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST 
AND DRIER AIR ALOFT ADVECTS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER EVEN THOUGH SHOWERS 
WILL BE WINDING DOWN LATER TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE 
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AND 
CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW WITH VERY SHALLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT COURTESY 
OF COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD 
CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY. THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER 
AND COLD AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY START TO 
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS THAT LIMP INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE 
AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS 
FLOW...COUPLED WITH REMAINING MOISTURE SHOULD MAINTAIN PARTLY TO 
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. THOUGH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH 
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE CORN BELT STATES WILL BE EXPANDING 
EASTWARD THE LINGERING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FROST CONCERNS. IF ANY 
FROST DOES OCCUR...THE LIKELY AREAS WILL BE NEAR THE NYS LINE WHERE 
THE MOST CLEARING IS POSSIBLE. 

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD TUESDAY. MODEL 
SOUNDINGS STILL DISPLAY SOME MOISTURE LINGERING BETWEEN 5-8K FEET 
TUESDAY MORNING AND WE COULD START THE DAY WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN 
SUN. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND DEPARTS 
EASTWARD...A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF 
THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH WARMER AND DRIER 
AIR WILL PUSH EASTWARD...INCREASING THE AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE TUESDAY 
AFTERNOON AND BRING A WARMER AFTERNOON. TUESDAY WILL BE THE START 
OF WHAT MAY BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY...COMFORTABLE FALLISH 
WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE 
IN THE MID 60S...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S UNDER MAINLY 
CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT FAIR...COMFORTABLE AND PLEASANT AUTUMN WEATHER THROUGH THIS 
TIME PERIOD. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN 
US THIS TIME PERIOD WITH A DOWN STREAM RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND 
EASTERN US. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SUNSHINE WILL 
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 
LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...A NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY 
UPSLOPE FLOW OF COLDER AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. IN CONCERT 
WITH AN INCREASE IN WRAPAROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTRIBUTIONS 
FROM THE LAKES...THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD 
LOWER-END MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH AREAS OF IFR FOUND ACROSS THE 
HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE GENERAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 
REST OF THE NIGHT AND MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING...WITH MUCH MORE 
SPOTTY/BRIEF LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLY AFFECTING SOME OF OUR LOWER 
ELEVATIONS AS WELL. 

FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING ON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE 
AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION. IN CONCERT WITH 
DIURNAL INFLUENCES...THIS WILL RESULT IN OUR IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS FIRST 
LIFTING TO HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR...THEN SCATTERING OUT LATE MONDAY 
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING. ONCE THESE ARE GONE...GENERAL VFR 
CONDITIONS SHOULD TEND TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 
NIGHT...THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT 
AS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO/QUEBEC PUSHES 
IN OUR DIRECTION. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...SOME LOCALIZED IFR IN 
VALLEY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK... 
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED IFR IN SOUTHERN 
TIER VALLEY FOG EACH OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH NORTHWESTERLIES AND ASSOCIATED COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN 
ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES PERSISTING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF 
LAKES ERIE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND RIGHT THROUGH 
MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. 

WAVES WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AS AN EXPANSIVE DOME 
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH WILL 
SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE LAKES THROUGH THE REST OF THE COMING WEEK... 
RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR 
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR 
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
         LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR/WOOD







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