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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 220821
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
421 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
PROMOTES A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS
THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE WARMTH AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CROSSES
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND FAIR WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THIS
COLD FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING PLACES AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG 
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TO THE WEST AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER 
MINNESOTA WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 
REGIONAL RADARS ARE QUIET THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST 
BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALLOWING FOR SOME FOG TO FORM...ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS WITH PATCHES OF FOG ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE 
REGION. 

ALOFT TODAY THE AXIS OF A 500 HPA RIDGE WILL CROSS THE REGION. 
SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH WARMING ALOFT WILL 
CREATE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS/CAPPING INVERSION FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE 
LAKES ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY POOLING IN ANY 
LOCATION...COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM SUBTLE LAKE BREEZES COULD BE 
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. 

OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR 
THE LAKES. THIS SUNSHINE ALONG WITH WARM DEW POINTS WILL BRING OUT 
SUMMERS WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION TODAY. ALOFT 850 HPA 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING TO AROUND +17 TO +19C AND THIS WILL 
ALLOW FOR OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 80S FOR OUR 
REGION. THE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE 
LAKES...THE GENESEE VALLEY AND BLACK AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER 
VALLEYS. A SPOT 90F READING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER 
LAKES REGION.

LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE IN 
STRENGTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SLICING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT 
LAKES REGION. ALOFT A 35 TO 40 KNOT LLJ WILL INCREASE MOISTURE 
OVERNIGHT...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NOSE OF THIS JET MAY BRING AN 
ISOLATED SHOWER OVERNIGHT ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. 
OTHERWISE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FORMING AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD 
BOUND COLD FRONT MAY REACH THE WESTERN NIAGARA FRONTIER BY DAWN.  

THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT 
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN A MUGGY AIRMASS DROPPING ONLY BACK INTO THE 
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST MODEL CYCLE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A FASTER COLD FRONTAL 
PROGRESSION THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY. FORECASTED FRONTAL 
TIMING SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE WEDNESDAY 
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH LAT 
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. UNFAVORABLE 
TIMING WILL LIKELY LIMIT SEVERE THREAT. LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO 
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO 
THURSDAY TO PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
ENOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR DECENT DIURNALLY DRIVEN 
CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK GREAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY FROM 
THE OH VALLEY TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT MINIMAL CLOUDS 
ASIDE FROM ANY TYPICAL MORNING VALLEY FOG. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH EXCELLENT SLEEPING WEATHER 
OVERNIGHT /HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 
50S...COOLER WELL INLAND/. BY SATURDAY HIGHS WILL REACH TO NEAR 
AVERAGE WITH LOWER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AWAY FROM THE LAKE 
PLAINS.  

SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE MORE IN QUESTION WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM 
BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE REGION. THERE ARE A VARIETY OF POSSIBILITIES 
WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...WITH A SURFACE LOW WEST OR SOUTH OF THE 
REGION BY SUNDAY. A MID LEVEL TROUGH OR EVEN A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW 
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN LAKES BY MONDAY AND PROVIDE PERIODS OF 
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE AS LOBES OF VORTICITY MOVE 
DOWNSTREAM OF THE CLOSED LOW. THIS LOOKS TO BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD 
STARTING SUNDAY AND GOING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 08Z VFR TO IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN NEW 
YORK. AREAS OF FOG HAVE LOWERED SEVERAL TAF SITES DOWN TO IFR THIS 
MORNING...AND ALL TAF SITES STAND A CHANCE OF AT LEAST SOME MVFR 
VSBYS BEFORE SUNRISE.  

FOR TODAY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON 
AND EVENING. THIS WILL NOT BE GREAT ENOUGH IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE A 
MENTION IN ANY TAFS. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...AND 
EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE 
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OF THE TAF 
SITES THROUGH 06Z.  

OUTLOOK... 
WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR BECOMING 
LIKELY. 
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...SAVE FOR IFR/MVFR IN 
PATCHY SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG LATER EACH NIGHT/EARLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL CONTINUE THE 
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE LAKES AND RIVERS TODAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL SLIP EASTWARD AND ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE 
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WINDS WILL INCREASE IN 
SPEED TUESDAY NIGHT...AND BECOME SOUTHERLY. THESE WINDS WILL PRODUCE 
WAVES 2 TO 3 FEET ON LAKE ERIE. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WAVES 2 TO 3 
FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ON BOTH LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO 
THURSDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA/ZAFF
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS







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