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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 271323
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
923 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING 
WITH A FEW SPRINKLES. BEHIND THE FRONT A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR 
WILL MOVE IN FOR THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL 
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY 
WILL ARRIVE FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WHEN A COMPLEX FRONTAL 
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 13Z...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW LIGHT 
SPRINKLES AROUND THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS NOW DRAPED RIGHT 
ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH ONLY THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND FAR 
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION FOR IT YET TO PASS THROUGH. FRONT IS 
SLOWING DOWN A BIT...BUT SHOULD STILL CLEAR THE REMAINDER OF THE 
AREA BY 15Z OR SO. EXPECT A SPRINKLE OR TWO ALMOST ANYWHERE THIS 
MORNING AS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF STUBBORN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 
AROUND...AS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SCOUR SOME OF THIS OUT. 
THEREFORE ALSO EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY 
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING...WITH ONLY SOME PARTIAL CLEARING 
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL DECK TRAVERSES THE 
AREA.

A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO NOSE INTO THE 
REGION FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. 
THE HIGH WILL HELP BRING IN SOME LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE ON 
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. HOWEVER A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL PROBABLY 
REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. EXPECT MORE IN 
THE WAY OF CLEARING TOWARDS VERY LATE IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND DRIER AIR 
CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION 
UNDERWAY BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPS WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER 
THAN TUESDAYS HIGHS UNDER NORTHWEST COLD ADVECTION TOPPING OUT IN 
THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE UPPER 
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...KEEPING OUR WEATHER DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. 
HOWEVER...A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE 
HIGH WILL ALLOW COOLER AIR FROM CANADA TO POUR SOUTH INTO THE AREA. 
EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE REGION...WITH 
SOME EXTRA LAKE CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH 
COOLER WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...SOME 5 DEGREES OR 
SO BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH A TASTE OF EARLY AUTUMN ON 
THURSDAY AS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 70 DEGREE MARK. THE 
COOLEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE 
MOVES OVERHEAD...MAXIMIZING RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALLOWING FOR 
READINGS TO DIP AS LOW AS THE MID 40S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF 
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY WHILE AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKES 
WILL RUN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

FRIDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND AS A WARM FRONT 
LIFTS INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE STATE SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AND MUCH 
OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN THE DRY WARM SECTOR BEHIND THE 
FRONT...NONETHELESS THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW 
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY NICK THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND NORTH 
COUNTRY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THESE ARE AREAS 
THAT WILL BE CLOSEST TO ANY MOISTURE THAT MANAGES TO SPILL OVER THE 
TOP OF THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL WARM BACK INTO THE MID 
70S AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE 
REGION...HOWEVER THE REAL WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH 
LOWS RETURNING TO THE 60S AND WARMER WEATHER TO COME THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEPART TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING 
FOR STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING 
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AIR SURGING NORTHWARDS 
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EASILY PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S ON 
SATURDAY WITH DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE MID 60S...MAKING FOR A 
BALMY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO LIFT TOWARDS THE OTTAWA 
VALLEY SUNDAY...AND WE WILL SEE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES AND THE AREA 
REMAINS ENSCONCED IN A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE MODELS 
DIFFER ON THE SPEED WITH WHICH THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION 
WITH THE GFS FAVORING A TYPICALLY FASTER OPEN WAVE CROSSING SUNDAY 
NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF OPTS FOR A SLOWER MOVING SYSTEM THAT DOES NOT 
CROSS UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL COVER THIS DIFFERENCE WITH 
BROAD-BRUSHED CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING WITH TEMPERATURES 
TRENDING TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES AS NOMINALLY COOLER AIR 
WRAPS BACK ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES ARE 
EXPECTED TO CLIMB AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
MOVES OVERHEAD AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD 
ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PROGGED TO 
IMPACT THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 13Z...MVFR CIGS WERE FOUND ACROSS BUF/IAG/ROC TERMINALS IN THE 
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS JHW JUST 
AHEAD OF THE SLOWING COLD FRONT. ART TERMINAL HAS LOW VFR CIGS AND 
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE SOME 
SCATTERING OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ONLY TO HAVE A MID LEVEL DECK 
LEFT BEHIND FOR THE AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...THERE ARE A FEW ISOLATED 
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO 
REGION...BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ART. AS THE COLD FRONT 
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA 
BY 15Z OR SO. MVFR/ISOLATED IFR CIGS WILL LAST THROUGH THE LATE 
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH NORTHERN AREAS LIFTING/SCATTERING OUT 
FIRST...WITH THE INTERIOR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER NOT IMPROVING TO 
MVFR UNTIL AT LEAST LATE THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY NOT BECOMING VFR 
UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO SCOUR OUT 
SOME OF THE STUBBORN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THIS AREA. AFTER 
THIS...ALL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE ANY CIGS LIFT BACK TO VFR LATER THIS 
AFTERNOON...WITH A MID LEVEL DECK CROSSING THE AREA. 

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS 
SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD 
TEMPS ALOFT WILL BECOME JUST COOL ENOUGH ON A NORTHWEST FLOW TO 
PRODUCE SOME LAKE CLOUDS...WHICH MAY BRING SOME LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS TO 
THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS.   

OUTLOOK...  
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EXCEPT FOR TYPICAL SOUTHERN TIER 
VALLEY FOG WITH LOCAL IFR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY 
MORNING. 
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTH OF WESTERN AND 
NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT COLD AIR 
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE WINDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ON LAKE ONTARIO 
WITH A WNW DIRECTION. THESE WNW WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE WAVE 
HEIGHTS ON LAKE ONTARIO LATER TODAY WITH MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS 
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WATERS VERY 
LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL LIKELY 
REMAIN JUST UNDER 3 FEET OR LESS ON LAKE ERIE WITH THE PERPENDICULAR 
WIND FLOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM







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