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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 251040
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
540 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH TODAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND
A COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING. A FLOODING 
RISK WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN AREAS WITH RECENTLY MELTED LAKE EFFECT 
SNOW PACK. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SOME 
LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES EAST OF THE LAKES.
A NOR'EASTER WILL LIFT ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY WITH JUST LIGHT 
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK THEN  BELOW NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW RETURNS LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE LOW IS SHIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING 
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT RUNNING DOWN THE EAST COAST. A TIGHT 
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK IN THE 
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSED NEW YORK OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHEST 
WIND GUSTS ARE 20-40KT WHICH ARE SUB-ADVISORY SO ALL WIND HEADLINES 
HAVE BEEN DROPPED. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FALLING 
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY DIURNAL TEMPERATURE WARMING 
AS 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL TO -6C TO -8C BY THIS AFTERNOON.     
TODAY'S HIGH TEMPS HAVE LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRED RIGHT AT MIDNIGHT 
AND ARE EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH THE 30S TODAY.  

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN ELONGATED REGION 
OF LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TO THE SOUTHWEST 
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND LAKE ERIE. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME 
WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A SECONDARY COLD 
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH PIVOTING SOUTHEAST. THIS CLOUD DECK WILL 
ADVANCE EAST SOME TODAY WITH CIRRUS/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ADVANCING 
NORTH AND WEST FROM THE EAST COAST AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL 
STORM. 

THE ADDITION OF THE SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM THE WEST IN 
THE PRESENCE OF 850MB TEMPS OF -6C TO -8C WILL CREATE SOME WEAK LAKE 
ENHANCEMENT OVER AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY. THE LAKE INDUCED 
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS FROM BUFKIT PROFILES OF ABOUT 5KFT WITH SHALLOW 
MOISTURE BELOW 5KFT IS WELL DISPLACED BELOW THE PRIME -12C TO -18C 
DENDRITIC SNOW SO THIS SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP PRECIP AS EITHER LIGHT 
DRIZZLE /DUE TO THE LAKE OF ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION IN THE CLOUD/ OR 
SNOW FLURRIES. QPF AND LIFT SUPPORT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

CONCERNING FLOODING...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE AREA 
WHICH SAW LAKE EFFECT SNOW MELT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. SEE 
BUFFLWBUF FOR ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. THE ONLY BUFFALO AREA CREEK WHICH 
STILL IS UNDER A FLOOD WARNING IS ELLICOTT CREEK WITH ITS CREST TO 
MINOR FLOOD STAGE STILL EXPECTED LATER TODAY. SEE BUFFLSBUF FOR 
ASSOCIATED IMPACTS.

TONIGHT COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS OUR REGION WITH 
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. 850MB TEMPS 
WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY COOL WITH MOISTURE REMAINING SHALLOW SO STILL 
EXPECTING THE SAME CHANCES OF LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED DRIZZLE/FLURRIES. 
WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WITH THE SURFACE 
TROUGH LIFTING NORTH OF THE LOWER LAKES. SOME LIMITED FREEZING 
DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WITH LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS WARMER 
THAN -10C AND SURFACE TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO THE BUSY TRAVEL DAY 
BEFORE THANKSGIVING WILL BE ON THE COASTAL LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING 
UP THE EAST COAST. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND EASTWARD ON THE 
TRACK OF THE LOW AND AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT 
IMPACT ON WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE 
FORECAST AREA IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE ON THE VERY FRINGE OF THIS 
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM 
COMBINED WITH MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT OF AROUND -9C 
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME FLURRIES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TO 
START THE DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAN 
PREVIOUS PACKAGES...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE APPROACHING 
LOW...AND THIS SHOULD SERVE TO SEED THE SHALLOW CLOUD LAYER BELOW IN 
THE LOW LEVELS...ALLOWING FOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS OPPOSED 
TO THE FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. EVEN WITH THIS 
SEEDING...WITH EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS OF 5KFT OR LESS...DO NOT EXPECT 
TO SEE MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES OR PERHAPS A LIGHT DUSTING SOUTH OF 
LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE OR NO 
PRECIPITATION TO SPEAK OF ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK AND THE 
BUFFALO METRO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH 
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ON THANKSGIVING DAY 
HOLIDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT 
LAKES. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY AND A 
WEAK CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE 
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS 
CLIPPER WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF RAISING EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ABOVE 
10KFT ON LAKE ERIE AND WESTERLY FLOW WILL FOCUS LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS 
ON THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE ABOVE 
700MB WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL RATES/TOTALS WITH ONLY 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED 
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WITH ONLY A 
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS THE NOMINAL SYNOPTIC LIFT 
PROVIDED BY THE CLIPPER WILL BE ACROSS WNY AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW ON 
LAKE ONTARIO LOOKS TO BE TOO WEAK AND POORLY ALIGNED VERTICALLY TO 
POSE MUCH OF A LAKE-EFFECT THREAT AT THIS POINT. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO 
RUN WITH A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING 
THANKSGIVING DAY WITH LOW TO MID 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER FILTERS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT 
LAKES OF LATE WILL GIVE WAY TO A ZONAL PATTERN AS WE MOVE INTO THE 
WEEKEND. LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO 
GIVE WAY TO A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BY SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT 
LIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONGER 
CLIPPER. MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES THE LOW TRACK WELL NORTH OF OUR 
FORECAST AREA AND ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC SATURDAY. 

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS 
WAY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WE 
MAY SEE ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW AS 
SUB-FREEZING AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. 
MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A SEASONABLY CHILLY DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME 
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON NORTHERLY FLOW...TAPERING OFF AS 
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR INFILTRATING FROM THE WEST HAS BROUGHT MVFR CEILINGS 
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING PER SATELLITE IMAGERY.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NY WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN 
TODAY...BUT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 
THE DAY TODAY. THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR 
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT MAY RESULT IN LIGHT DRIZZLE OR 
FLURRIES DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE 
CHANCES LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM THE BODY OF THE TAF WITH 
EXCEPTION OF SOME VCSH.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF 
THE LAKES. 
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOW SHOWERS 
EAST OF THE LAKES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE NOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING. WINDS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAVE SLACKENED BELOW GALE FORCE SO GALES 
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DROPPED. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT 
OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND NIAGARA/ST LAWRENCE RIVER TODAY AND 
ENDING TONIGHT. 

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE 
LOWER LAKES WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS A 
DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER SHIFTS NORTH ALONG THE COAST. WESTERLIES WILL 
FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THIS 
STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG THE EASTERN 
SEABOARD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR 
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR 
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR 
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH







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