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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 170452
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1152 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS A 
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE 
IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A 
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST 
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY 
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR-NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS LATE EVENING PLACES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. THE INITIAL BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LEAVING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ARE IN THE MID 30S SO
THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE MINIMAL FOR THE THREE COUNTIES
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS
CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND EXPAND AS IT
UPSLOPES ALONG A CONVERGENT SW FLOW UP LAKE ERIE. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN MILD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S...WITH WARMEST OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FOUND NEAR THE
LAKE PLAINS.

ON WEDNESDAY A FRESH SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION 
AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW 
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE LOW CENTER WILL REDEVELOP 
ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. PERSISTENT COLD AIR 
ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH 
THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST AND FROM HIGH ELEVATIONS TO LOW 
ELEVATIONS. UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S EARLY WILL FALL TO UPPER 20S AND 
LOW 30S BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. 

WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS 
CROSSING THE REGION COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL 
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHEST CHANCES 
FOCUSED EAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE. 
AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -6C LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS 
WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 5KFT. PTYPE WILL BE RAIN EARLY IN THE DAY AND 
ACROSS LOW ELEVATIONS MIXING WITH SNOW GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON. 
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS A MIX EARLY ON WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW 
THROUGH THE DAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH. COLD ADVECTION 
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAY UP TO AROUND 35 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW WILL CONSOLIDATE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT. THIS WILL SET UP A WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHICH 
WILL SHIFT TO THE WNW LATER IN THE NIGHT. EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL BE 
LOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH A PERSISTENT INVERSION FORECAST TO 
REMAIN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 5K FT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN 
SMALL LAKE INDUCED CAPES WITH CLOUD TOPS MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR 
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LIFT WILL COME FROM 
UPSLOPING RATHER THAN LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY...WITH THE GREATEST 
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS INLAND FROM THE LAKES ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. 

THE STEADIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY BE WEDNESDAY EVENING WHEN MOISTURE 
ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL LOW HELPS ENHANCE LAKE SNOWS. 
OFF LAKE ERIE A SHARPER INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE BUT AIR BENEATH 
THIS WILL BE COLDER. 12Z NAM/RGEM GUIDANCE BOTH HINT AT A LAKE 
HURON MOISTURE CONNECTION...WHICH COULD ENHANCE SNOWFALL ON THE 
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND BOSTON HILLS. GENERALLY EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES IN 
THESE AREAS....BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A PROLONGED 
UPSTREAM LAKE CONNECTION COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LAKE ONTARIO IS A BIT MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH A 
LESS PRONOUNCED INVERSION AND DEEPER MOISTURE. THE W-WNW FLOW WILL 
UPSLOPE THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE TUG HILL. FORECAST 
CONFIDENCE FALLS JUST SHY OF ANY WINDER HEADLINES...BUT IF 
NOTHING CHANGES COULD SEE 3 TO 6 INCH ADVISORY AMOUNTS ON THE TUG 
HILL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THIS 
WILL PUSH WHATEVER MOISTURE THIS IS ON LAKE ONTARIO SOUTH INTO THE 
LAKE PLAINS. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE I-90 
CORRIDOR FROM BUF-ROC-SYR...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE 
LIGHT...GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS. MEANWHILE...THE EXIT OF THE UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A LOWERING INVERSION AND LESS ORGANIZED 
LAKE EFFECT SNOW. WHAT DOES LAST WILL AGAIN FOCUS ON HIGHER 
TERRAIN...WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES 
EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW 
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT 
ACCUMULATIONS WHICH WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE 
OFF LAKE ERIE AND JUST EAST OF ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO COUNTY AND THE 
TUG HILL OFF LAKE ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF THE 5K 
EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL WILL BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR DENDRITIC SNOW 
GROWTH WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE THURSDAY NIGHT. 
GIVEN FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES AND SPOTTY MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT 
PRECIPITATION WILL PRIMARILY BE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES...AND WILL 
MAINTAIN THIS IN THE FORECAST. 

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHILLY...WITH A MINIMAL DIURNAL 
RANGE DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WITH STRATUS TRAPPED BENEATH THE 
INVERSION. HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 
FREEZING...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND 
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL DIMINISH WINDS AND END THE LAKE EFFECT. LOW 
MOISTURE WILL LINGER...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME BREAKS OF 
SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THE FOCUS TURNS TO A SOUTHERN STREAM 
SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY 
DETAILS OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. FOLLOWING A SHIFT IN 
THE OTHER DIRECTION YESTERDAY...12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD A 
WEAKER NON-PHASED SOLUTION INSTEAD OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW. IF THIS 
PLAYS OUT...IT WOULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO WESTERN NEW YORK WITH 
MINIMAL ACCUMULATION. GIVEN THE TIMEFRAME...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE 
FUTURE RUNS WILL CHANGE...SO FORECAST UPS THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL 
REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY TO REFLECT THE UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL 
GUIDANCE. EITHER WAY...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO HAVE A 
MAJOR IMPACT ON OUR REGION...WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES 
EITHER WAY.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO DRY 
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO 
AVERAGE FOR MID TO LATE DECEMBER WITH NO PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR THROUGH 
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...12Z GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT 
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF WITH A DEEP TROUGH FORECAST TO 
EXTEND DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI...THEN SWING AROUND AND CLOSE OFF AS A 
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHEAST ON CHRISTMAS DAY. IF THIS PLAYS 
OUT...THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY OR 
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. 
THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TRENDS THE NAO INDEX STEADILY DOWNWARD 
THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH INDICATING A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HIGH 
LATITUDE BLOCKING. EXPECT MID WINTER COLD TO ARRIVE NEAR CHRISTMAS 
AND HAVE SOME STAYING POWER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS 
THE REGION. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE 
NIAGARA FRONTIER OVERNIGHT WE MAY SEE AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE CIGS
TO MVFR ACROSS KBUF/KIAG...THOUGH RETURNING TO IFR IN KJHW WILL
LIKELY THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A SATURATED LOWER LEVEL.
LOW END MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINATE FOR THE KROC
AIRFIELD...AND KART MAY SEE A BRIEF DROP DOWN TO IFR...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TOWARDS MORNING.

IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL ONLY MODESTLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAYLIGHT 
HOURS TOMORROW...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW END MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS 
LIKELY ACROSS THE CWA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AGAIN BE KJHW WHERE IFR 
FLIGHT CONDITIONS MAY JUST VERY WELL CARRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE 00Z 
TAF PERIOD. 

COLDER AIR WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WITH 
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING MIXED WITH AND CHANGING TO LIGHT 
SNOW SHOWERS. WITHIN THESE SNOW SHOWERS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF 
CYCLE MVFR/IFR VSBYS ARE AGAIN LIKELY.

WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS PERIOD. WITH THE COLD AIR 
SWEEPING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EXPECT SOME GUSTS TOWARDS 30 
KNOTS ACROSS THE KBUF/KIAG/KROC AIRFIELDS....WITH 20 KNOT OR SO 
GUSTS ACROSS KJHW AND KART. 

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO 
OCCASIONALLY MORE NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS. 
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT THEN BRINGING WIDESPREAD ADVISORY
WINDS AND WAVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THESE HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED FOR
BOTH LAKES FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A RETURN TO MORE RELAXED
CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY 
         FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST 
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST 
         FRIDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM EST 
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST 
         FRIDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/SMITH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...SMITH







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