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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 011149
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
749 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE 
WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A SLIGHT 
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH 
FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SUMMERLIKE WARMTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING 
WORKING TOGETHER WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO TRAP LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. KBUF 12Z RAOB SHOWS NEARLY SATURATED 
PROFILE FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 2KFT THEN DRY ABOVE THAT.

HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND 
CLOSER TO 60 ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS ARE CONTRIBUTING 
TO AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS LINGERING AT NEAR 8AM ACROSS NEARLY 
THE ENTIRE AREA. DENSE FOG IS BEING REPORTED AT KIAG AND ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN TIER BUT IS CONSIDERED FAIRLY PATCHY BASED ON SURFACE OBS 
AND PEEKING AT AREA WEBCAMS. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN 
EFFECT UNTIL 930AM FOR NORTHERN ERIE AND NIAGARA COUNTIES WITH A 
SEPARATE STATEMENT ALSO IN EFFECT UNTIL 930AM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 
TIER TO COVER FOR THE PATCHY DENSE FOG.
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS EXTEND ACROSS A WIDE 
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. OBS BENEATH THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO 
SHOW REDUCED 1-2 MILE VISIBILITY. SITES WITH A BIT MORE WIND ARE 
FAVORING THE STRATUS OVER FOG SUCH AS AT KBUF.

THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE BY MID MORNING AS 
DAYTIME MIXING BREAKS THE SURFACE INVERSION. AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND 
850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID 
DAY TODAY. HAVE TAKEN BACK TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS 
FORECAST BASED ON NEWER 00Z GUIDANCE AND STEEP INVERSION RIGHT AT 
850MB WHICH MAY PREVENT THE FULL MIXING OF WARMER AIR ALOFT TO THE 
SURFACE. HIGHS NOW FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
 
ANOTHER STEAMY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS. 
MODELS ARE A LITTLE LESS BULLISH ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING 
BENEATH THE INVERSION SO FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS 
EXTENSIVE AS THEY ARE THIS MORNING BUT HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG IN 
THE FORECAST. LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKES TO 
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW MINOR COSMETIC 
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAIN 
STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. 

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO 
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL 
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE 
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE 
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20C WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 1 TO 
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
 
THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND 
HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. SURFACE HIGHS WILL RISE 
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE GENESEE VALLEY 
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY SLIPPING BACK 
INTO THE 60S. 

12Z MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY WORK 
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STORMS INN OUR  
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE 
ELEVATED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE A 
700MB INVERSION. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE 
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS LAKE INFLUENCES WOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN 
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LATEST MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT 
CROSSING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSES SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE 
COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND FROM 
THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE 
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT 
LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE 
STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER 
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE 
AFTERNOON HEATING CYCLE.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES 
TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. AREAS OF IFR AND LOWER FOG AND 
LOW CLOUDS LINGER NEAR 12Z. ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY 
14-16Z THIS MORNING LEAVING SUNNY VFR SKIES GOING INTO THE 
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT SIMILAR CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND 
OF PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS AGAIN AFTER 6Z.
 
OUTLOOK... 
WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN PATCHY FOG.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE 
UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP AREAS OF 
FOG IN PLACE AT LEAST EACH MORNING. PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE 
LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT CHOP ON THE 
EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN 12 
KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...FRANKLIN/SMITH



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