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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 160245
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1045 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL 
BRING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS RAIN WILL COME TO 
AN END EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING TOMORROW 
AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY 
CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT BRINGS CHANCES 
FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE UPPED THE POPS TO NEAR 100PCT FOR A LARGE SWATHE OF WESTERN
NY TO THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES EARLY OVERNIGHT AND BUMPED UP THE
QPF FOR WESTCENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER TO RAINFALL TOTALS
JUST ABOVE A HALF INCH POSSIBLE. THE CORE OF STEADIER AND HEAVIER
RAIN SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT..AND LIFT AHEAD OF 
THE FEATURE COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD 
FRONT WILL GENERATE RAIN SHOWERS. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY REMAINS 
TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND DO NOT FEEL THAT 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TO THE NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION. 

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE ACROSS 
CNY...WITH THE COLD FRONT SIMILARLY NEAR CNY AS WELL. THUS SYNOPTIC 
SHOWERS FOR TOMORROW WILL LIKELY BE RESERVED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE 
GENESEE VALLEY. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS 
COLD FRONT AS 850 HPA TEMPERATURES ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HOWEVER 
EVEN THESE 850 HPA READING OF AROUND +4C OVER THE WARM LAKE WATERS 
ALONG WITH WINDS VEERING TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MAY BRING A FEW LAKE 
EFFECT SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW 
NYS. WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH THE MORNING HERE...WITH 
DAYTIME MIXING ENDING ANY ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING. EAST OF LAKE 
ONTARIO BY TIME ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS GENERATE BEHIND THE COLD 
FRONT...FEEL THAT IT WILL BE LATE ENOUGH IN THE MORNING THAT NO 
ORGANIZED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP.   

CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AND PRETTY 
UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. 
FOR TOMORROW HIGHS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 60S. THE WARMEST AREAS IN 
THE REGION...WHERE HIGHS MAY REACH INTO THE MID 60S WILL BE ACROSS 
NORTHWESTERN NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE 
ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE WILL PROMOTE THE GREATEST AFTERNOON WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER LAKES 
AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING 
INITIALLY DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY 
SUPPORTIVE FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW 
JUST OFF THE SURFACE...A COOL AIRMASS ALLOWING FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT 
CLOUDS...AND A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO TRAP A SHALLOW 
LAYER OF MOISTURE. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE 
AGAIN OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE THE NORTH COUNTRY MAY 
REMAIN MORE CLEAR. EVEN WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER 
THERE MAY BE SOME SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG. ASSUMING THE CLOUD COVER 
MATERIALIZES...IT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS UP A LITTLE IN AN OTHERWISE 
CHILLY AIRMASS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON THE LAKE 
PLAINS AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER 
VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION. IF SKIES DO REMAIN CLEAR MUCH OF THE 
NIGHT...SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS MAY SEE PATCHY FROST.

ON WEDNESDAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MEANWHILE A 
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE SAINT 
LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER IN THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING 
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO ANY 
MORNING STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT AND GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE 
THROUGH THE DAY. 850MB TEMPS OF +4C TO +6 WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 
MID TO UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS...AND LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS 
HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS 
THE REGION AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS QUEBEC. THE FRONT 
WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND ANY LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC ASCENT WILL 
REMAIN WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE A FEW 
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT 
OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES AS IT MOVES SLOWLY 
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. 
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND SOME LIMITED LAKE RESPONSE MAY KEEP THESE 
SPRINKLES...OR PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE GOING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING 
FROM SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. 
ANOTHER PERIOD OF NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS...AND 
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE 
MORE STRATUS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THURSDAY 
FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA. 

STEADY COLD ADVECTION AND POST-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP 
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 
UPPER 50S IN MOST AREAS. 

THURSDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND NEW 
ENGLAND. SOME STRATUS MAY STILL LINGER SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING 
THE EVENING...BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT LATER AT NIGHT 
AND SHOULD ALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW TO BREAK DOWN AND YIELD CLEARING 
SKIES. A COOL/DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE GOOD 
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND 40 ON THE LAKE 
PLAINS WITH MID 30S POSSIBLE IN THE COOLER SPOTS OF THE INTERIOR 
SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH SOME FROST 
POSSIBLE. THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MAY 
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND CONTINUE 
TO PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION. BURGEONING SOUTHERLY 
RETURN FLOW WILL AID IN ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER AFTER A 
CHILLY MORNING. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE 
PLAINS...WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST OF LAKE 
ONTARIO. 

OVER THE WEEKEND A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
PLAINS AND FORCE DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES AND WARM ADVECTION ACROSS 
THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN 
ANCHORED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST...ALLOWING FOR A GOOD PUSH OF 
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES AT 
LEAST INTO THE MID 70S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS LOWER 
ELEVATIONS AIDED BY SSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE LATEST 12Z GFS REMAINS 
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN KEEPING SATURDAY DRY...AND THE NEW 
12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED STRONGLY IN THAT DIRECTION AND NOW KEEPS A 
FRONTAL ZONE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN 
LAKES. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR SATURDAY. BY 
SUNDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE 
REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH 
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR MONDAY FOLLOWING THE SUNDAY COLD 
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAINFALL AND LOWERING CIGS ACROSS
THE CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z. MUCH OF THE TIME SHOULD BE
VFR...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE
RAIN SHOWERS. ON TUESDAY THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES. THIS EASTWARD AXIS
ALONG WITH THE NOW EASTWARD WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING AN END TO
THE RAINFALL. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ALONG WITH MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TUESDAY
MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEER AROUND TO NORTHWESTERLY.
OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 12 AND 00Z
TOMORROW WITH A GENERAL LIGHT WIND FLOW.

OUTLOOK... 
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR. SOME PATCHES OF MVFR 
CIGS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME VALLEY FOG WITH 
LOCALIZED IFR FLIGHT VSBYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD 
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THESE 
WINDS WILL BRING 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES ON LAKE ERIE...AND ON LAKE 
ONTARIO A LONGER FETCH TO THE LAKE WILL ALLOW FOR 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES. 
BASED ON THIS ALONG WITH WINDS NEARING 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE SMALL 
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR LAKE ONTARIO FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE 
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  

WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE WEST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY 
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. 
WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS 
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE BUILDING ONCE AGAIN 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY 
         FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR 
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/WCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...THOMAS/WCH
MARINE...THOMAS







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