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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 301251
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
751 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH SCATTERED 
SNOW SHOWERS LARGELY TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL 
FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SINGLE DIGIT READINGS EXPECTED FOR 
ALL SITES BY THIS EVENING. THE FRIGID AIR WILL SUPPORT BITTERLY COLD 
WIND CHILL VALUES FOR PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK 
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER ON 
SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS 
MORNING WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE WEST ACROSS LAKE 
ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ARE RUNNING IN THE 20S 
WITH READINGS QUICKLY FALLING INTO THE TEENS NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO 
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND 
CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS...GUSTY WINDS AND A STEADY DIP IN TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE 
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SLUSH ON 
AREA ROADS TO FREEZE UP IF UNTREATED. ONLY EXPECTING UP TO AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN THE MOST PERSISTENT AREAS OF SNOW
TODAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL 2-3 INCHES TODAY.

TONIGHT WE TURN EVEN COLDER AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE 
UPPER MIDWEST CIRCULATES ARCTIC AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 
ONLY A CHANCE OF SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING SOUTHEAST 
OF THE LAKE OTHERWISE SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS...ESP ACROSS THE 
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO 
FALL OVERNIGHT TOWARDS ZERO FOR WESTERN NEW YORK DOWN INTO THE TEENS 
BELOW ZERO FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. COMBINING THESE 
TEMPS WITH A LIGHT/MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED WINDS WE 
HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER AND 
NORTH COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO OUR
REGION ON SATURDAY. ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES OR SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD END BY MIDDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND WARMER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION. AFTER A COLD START
TO THE DAY TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO THE LOW 20S BY LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NY...BUT STAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY DEEPER INTO THE COLD AIRMASS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING A RE-ENFORCING ARCTIC FRONT 
WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION AND STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION 
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BURST OF SNOW 
SHOWERS...WHICH MAY ALSO PICK UP SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO 
AND THE LIMITED OPEN WATER ON LAKE ERIE...AND ALSO FROM UPSLOPE FLOW 
EAST OF THE LAKES. THIS MAY PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF 
ACCUMULATION IN SOME SPOTS. THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT MAY 
BRING SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO 
SUNDAY MORNING WITH VERY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. A FRESH 
BATCH OF COLDER AIR WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TEENS IN MOST 
AREAS WITH SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

MEANWHILE A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL 
ENHANCE A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED ARCTIC BOUNDARY WITH A 
FAIRLY VIGOROUS BUT FAST TRACKING SYSTEM FORECAST TO DEVELOP. MODEL 
GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPED THIS LOW...BUT HAS STRUGGLED 
MIGHTILY WITH ITS TRACK. 00Z GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED NORTH FROM 
PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT GIVEN THE TIMEFRAME THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 
FUTURE MODEL SHIFTS. SINCE THIS IS PRIMARILY A QUESTION OF TRACK...A 
CONSENSUS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST FORECAST...WITH A MULTI-MODEL 
BLEND OF THE SREF/GFS/ECMWF/GGEM/NAM FAVORED. THIS MOST LIKELY 
SCENARIO WOULD BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS 
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NIL BUFFALO TO 
ROCHESTER NORTHWARD. THERE IS A CHANCE A NORTHERLY TRACK WOULD BRING 
MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS NORTHWARD OR A SOUTHWARD SHIFT KEEP 
ACCUMULATING SNOWS OUT OF THE CWA.

REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL 
DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE WHICH WILL PULL ARCTIC AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. 
THIS COLD NORTHERLY FLOW IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE SOME LIMITED LAKE 
EFFECT SNOWS SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. 
A MODEST NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER 
ROUND OF BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGHS 
ON MONDAY MAY NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SERIES OF WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES 
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF 
SUGGESTING THE STRONGEST WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY. IF THIS STRONGER 
SOLUTION VERIFIES IT WOULD BRIEFLY BRING A PUSH OF MILDER 
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE BY THURSDAY. 
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY THURSDAY 
AS FLOW APPEARS TO ALIGN BETTER AT THAT TIME THAN EARLIER IN THE 
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WITH 
SCATTERED MVFR/IFR VIS SNOW SHOWERS SLOWLY TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE 
DAY BUT LINGERING LONGEST AROUND KROC. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP 
LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS IN PLAY AS WELL WITH CIGS AVERAGING MVFR ACROSS 
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IFR FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO 
VFR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ONLY A 
SMALL CHANCE OF SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES 
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY....AREAS OF MVFR IN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS 
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. 
TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY INTO 
TONIGHT...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES ON LAKE ONTARIO.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT 
ALLOWING WINDS AND WAVES TO SUBSIDE LATE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN 
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST 
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST 
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ012-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH







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