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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 210622
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
222 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TODAY WHILE 
PRODUCING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL THEN TRANSFER TO THE 
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT NORTH ALONG THE 
COAST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE CONTINUING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS 
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE 
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER DEVELOPS 
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE 
JUST NORTH OF TORONTO. SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWS PLENTY OF MOISTURE 
AND RAIN SHOWERS SURROUNDING THE CENTER OF THIS LOW AND SHIFTING 
NORTHEAST ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT 
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING AS IT TRANSFERS 
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALOFT...A MID LEVEL TROUGH 
OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP A CLOSED 
CIRCULATION. SHOWERS WILL BE CONCENTRATED WITHIN AREAS OF DPVA AHEAD 
OF SEVERAL NOTABLE VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE DEVELOPING 
CLOSED LOW. A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY EVEN OCCUR AS THE CENTER 
OF THE SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE REGION. AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR 
SOUTHEAST DURING TUESDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL WRAP INTO 
WESTERN NY WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. WHILE THE FORCING AND MOISTURE 
COMING TOGETHER YIELD A HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAIN THROUGH TODAY...THE 
TRANSIENT AND COMPLEX NATURE OF FORCING WITH THE LOW CROSSING 
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WILL MAKE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE PERIODS OF 
ENHANCED RAIN DIFFICULT AT BEST. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE CONTINUED 
WITH THE WORDING OF OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE TRICKY TO PLACE AS WELL...WITH HIGHER 
AMOUNTS REMAINING RELATIVELY LOCALIZED. IN GENERAL EXPECT AMOUNTS OF 
A QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS...BUT SOME MESOSCALE 
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE 
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCAL 
AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN 
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 40S IN 
MOST AREAS THIS MORNING WITH LOWER 40S IN THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION...AND UPPER 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE 
LAKESHORES. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EXITING UPPER WAVE ANCHORING THE BROADER MID LEVEL TROUGH 
AMPLIFICATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT SETTLES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC 
REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THE EXTENSIVE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW 
WILL PUSH WESTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW YORK TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST 
PART OF WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. WE SHOULD 
SEE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATER WEDNESDAY 
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DRIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND DRY 
AIR ALOFT ENCROACHES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST. 
HOWEVER...DEVELOPING NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW WHICH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT 
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND IN FAVORED 
UPSLOPE AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE AN UPTICK TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY 
THURSDAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS BACK TO THE WEST AND A FRESH SLUG OF 
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE COOL 
NORTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE PRODUCING PLENTY OF CLOUD 
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE THROUGHOUT 
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINING CONSISTENT...AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE 
NEW ENGLAND COAST TRACKS SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND 
ATLANTIC MOISTURE. PLENTY OF MARITIME AIR WILL BE WRAPPED WESTWARD 
INTO THE REGION CONTINUING THE DREARY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH 
FRIDAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND GREATER POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL 
REMAINS FOCUSED EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. 

AN IMPROVEMENT LOOKS TO COME BY THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. 
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN 
MARITIMES...AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT 
LAKES ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MIX OF MVFR AND SOUTHERN TIER IFR CIGS IS FOUND EARLY THIS MORNING 
IN THE PRESENCE OF LOW PRESSURE AND RAIN SHOWERS CROSSING THE REGION. 
BY DAYBREAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER WESTERN NY. 
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE 
LOW ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF CIGS 
HERE LOWERING TO IFR TODAY AND CERTAINLY BY THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL 
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AS WELL...AND COMBINE WITH BR TO PRODUCE AREAS 
OF MVFR/IFR VSBY INTO THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...   
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN... 
RAIN LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING WITH
A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS RIGHT NEAR THE LOW CENTER.

LATER THIS MORNING NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON LAKE 
ONTARIO...THEN INCREASE FURTHER TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT QUICKLY TIGHTENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. 
THIS WILL BRING HIGHER END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE 
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. 
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY 
MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT 
         THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 
         AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT 
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM EDT 
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/SMITH







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