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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 260329
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1029 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC 
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND SPREAD A STEADY LIGHT SNOW INTO 
MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL PRODUCE MINOR 
ACCUMULATIONS IN MOST AREAS BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW 
SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY. A STRONG LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST MAY PRODUCE 
SOME LIGHT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT 
WILL OTHERWISE MISS OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF 
BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON 
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
BRIEF CLEARING THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL 
ALLOW MANY AREAS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS THIS EVENING WHILE 
THE SOUTHERN TIER SHOULD STAY IN THE TEENS WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER. 
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH CLEAR SKIES LASTING 
LONGER AND A COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE. EXPECT LOWS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW 
ZERO THERE. WIND CHILLS MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS 
JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES FOR A SHORT TIME LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY 
MONDAY...BUT IT APPEARS WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE 
NUMBERS JUST SHY OF CRITERIA.

OUR ATTENTION OTHERWISE TURNS TO A SYNOPTIC SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE 
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY BEFORE 
REDEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY EVENING IN A CLASSIC MILLER 
TYPE-B EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS EVOLUTION. AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH 
THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT A WING OF WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AHEAD 
OF THE LOW OVER PA AND PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN 
TIER. INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF 
LIGHT SNOW RIGHT ALONG THE PA STATE LINE AS EARLY AS LATE THIS 
EVENING...THEN SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES AND 
THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. EXPECT AROUND AN INCH 
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WITH CLOSER TO 2 INCHES 
POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE PA STATE LINE.

ON MONDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEST VIRGINIA THEN JUMP 
TO OFFSHORE OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DPVA 
OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL FRONT AND FORCE LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS. A 
BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF OUR 
REGION...WITH WEAK TO MODERATE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND WEAK 
STRETCHING DEFORMATION SUPPORTING PERSISTENT ASCENT. THE ISENTROPIC 
UPGLIDE WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A MODEST 30-35 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL 
JET FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND 
FINGER LAKES WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME ADDED LIFT AND CONVERGENCE. A 
BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SOME LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AS 
WELL...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST DPVA BY FAR WILL BE DIRECTED TOWARDS 
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. 

THE SNOW WILL REACH THE NYS THRUWAY CORRIDOR FROM BUFFALO TO 
ROCHESTER BY MID MORNING...THEN SPREAD NORTH TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF 
LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE MORNING. A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR 
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW AT BAY ACROSS 
JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES WITH JUST THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES ON MONDAY FROM THE WESTERN 
SOUTHERN TIER INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES AND EAST INTO THE 
GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES. AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE 
LOWER ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND TAPER QUICKLY TOWARDS SOUTHERN 
OSWEGO COUNTY WITH 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS THERE ON THE EDGE OF THE 
STEADIER SHIELD OF SNOW. THIS WILL PRODUCE TOTALS FROM TONIGHT INTO 
MONDAY OF AROUND 4 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...WITH 
2-3 INCHES FROM SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES INTO THE GENESEE 
VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES...AND 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE NIAGARA 
FRONTIER AND SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY. TOTALS OF AROUND 4 INCHES 
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FIT IN PERFECTLY WITH THE TRIED AND 
TRUSTED GARCIA METHOD...WITH ABOUT 12 HOURS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 
ABOUT 2G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY NEAR THE 700MB LAYER SUPPORTING 
ABOUT 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. AMOUNTS LOOK TOO MARGINAL FOR AN 
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...AND WILL FALL OVER A LITTLE LONGER PERIOD 
THAN THE 12 HOUR ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG COASTAL STORM JUST EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE 
SHIFTING NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INVERTED 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE WEST OF THE STORM ACROSS PA/WNY. 
WHILE THE LARGEST IMPACTS FROM THE STORM WILL OCCUR WELL EAST OF OUR 
FORECAST AREA...A COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND 
LAKE-ENHANCED NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE 
TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. 12Z BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A 
MORE FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILE ALOFT ACROSS ALL OF 
WESTERN NEW YORK WHICH REMOVES THE THREAT FOR ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE. 

AS THE COASTAL STORM SHIFTS JUST EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY 12Z 
GFS/ECWMF MODELS SHOW THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STORM CROSSING THE 
NORTH COUNTY WHILE THE 12Z NAM KEEPS THIS FURTHER EAST. HAVE GONE 
WITH LIKELY POPS FAVORING THE GLOBAL MODELS WHILE FURTHER WEST A 
CONTINUING NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL KEEP AT LEAST A 
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE SNOW ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. WEAK LAKE INDUCED 
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT REMAIN UNDER 5KFT WITH A 
DEEP ISOTHERMAL CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT. THIS ALONG WITH A CROSS 
LAKE FETCH WILL KEEP ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT WEAK. A BLEND OF MODEL QPF 
SEEMS COMBINED WITH AN AVERAGE 15:1 SNOW-LIQUID RATIO YIELDS 1-2 
INCHES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTH COUNTY WITH 2-3 
INCHES FOR THE FINGER LAKES AND GENESEE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AT 
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS DIPPING 
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY NIGHT ONLY WARMING 5-10 
DEGREES ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COASTAL STORM WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO FILL AS ITS 
RAPIDLY SHIFTS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF WEST 
TO EAST. WEDNESDAY A NARROW WEDGE OF SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH 
ACROSS NEW YORK BEHIND THE COASTAL STORM SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER 
AND SOME DECENT SUNSHINE. AFTER A COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THEN 
SINGLE DIGITS TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME WEAK WARMING ALOFT WILL HELP 
BOOST TEMPS TOWARD THE LOW 20S WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL TOPPING OUT 
BELOW NORMAL. MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALSO REMAIN DRY BUT 
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM PUSHING TOWARD CHICAGO MAY 
BRING A SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW BY EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO 
SHIFT ACROSS NEW YORK AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE 
THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS LOW CENTER TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF NEW 
YORK WITH SUB-FREEZING VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL FAVOR AN 
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL START THE WEEKEND 
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSING BY THEN 
12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIVERGE WITH TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT 
ARCTIC BLAST TO OPEN FEBRUARY. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS -25C 850MB AIR 
USHERED IN WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE 12Z 
GFS DELAYS THIS COLDEST AIR UNTIL TUESDAY BEHIND AN EARLY WEEK GREAT 
LAKES CUTTER. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES KEEPING 
TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW 
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH HIGH THIN CLOUDS 
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. 

LATER TONIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN SOUTHERN 
TIER NEAR THE PA STATE LINE...THEN MOVE NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTH SHORE 
OF LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW BEGINS...VSBY 
WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER 
INCLUDING KJHW 08Z-10Z...THEN SPREADING NORTH TO KBUF-KROC BY 
14Z-16Z. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE 
DAY WITH VSBY VARYING BETWEEN 1-3 MILES. THE SNOW WILL HAVE A SHARP 
NORTHERN EDGE...AND PROBABLY NOT REACH THE NORTH COUNTRY INCLUDING 
KART THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR SHORTLY 
AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW...WITH IFR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES ON MONDAY. 

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW.
TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.
FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEF IFR 
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW 
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN RE-DEVELOPS OFF THE 
EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND 
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS 
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE 
OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ABOUT SODUS BAY WESTWARD FROM LATER TONIGHT 
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR 
         LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY 
         FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







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