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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 192055 CCA
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
354 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND 
THIS WEEKEND...WHILE BRINGING DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND 
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A STORM SYSTEM THEN DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT 
LAKES AROUND THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING OUR AREA 
A ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH RAIN EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER TO 
SOME SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A QUIET PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS ONTARIO 
PROVINCE AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK 
STATE. THIS WILL PROMOTE DRY WEATHER...THOUGH LOWER CLOUDS WILL 
LINGER IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 
REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG AND SLOWLY LOWERING SUBSIDENCE 
INVERSION. THE MAIN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH 
COUNTRY...WHERE STRONGER DRYING AND THE LACK OF AN OFF-LAKE FLOW 
SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR TONIGHT...THEN REMAIN 
PARTLY SUNNY ON SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE MAY ALSO 
DEVELOP ACROSS EXTREME FAR WESTERN NEW YORK DURING SATURDAY...WHILE 
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN THE GENERAL RULE ELSEWHERE.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND THE LACK OF ANY REAL AIRMASS 
CHANGE...TEMPS WILL LARGELY CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A SMALL DIURNAL 
RANGE IN THE NEAR TERM. LOWS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 
20S TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S THEN 
FOLLOWING FOR SATURDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL AGAIN BE 
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED PARTIAL CLEARING 
AND DRIER OVERALL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 10 TO 
15 DEGREE RANGE TONIGHT...BEFORE RECOVERING TO THE UPPER 20S ON 
SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RIDGED ACROSS 
THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL KEEP SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN 
PLACE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER 
OVERNIGHT TRAPPED BENEATH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION BUT THE INVERSION
WILL WEAKEN ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGING RELAXES. THIS MAY BRING 
A SHORT OPPORTUNITY TO FINALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON 
HOURS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL 
DIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS CARVING OUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS 
THE CENTRAL STATES. THIS WILL FORM A SURFACE LOW FOLLOWING A SIMILAR 
PATH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE 
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING BACK INCREASING CLOUD COVER 
WITH WARMING SURFACE TEMPS AND RISING DEWPOINTS. SOME WEAK SURFACE 
RIDGING WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR REGION WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE 
MAINLY CONTRIBUTING TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH JUST A 
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS 
PROFILES MOISTEN FROM THE TOP DOWN. IF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES A BIT 
FASTER THAN EXPECTED AS OFTEN OCCURS IN WARM ADVECTION...A THIN 
LAYER OF WARM AIR OVERRIDING SUBFREEZING SURFACE TEMPS MAY BRING A 
WINTERY MIX MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO 
ALL PLAIN RAIN. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S 
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH SOME LAKE SHORE AREAS REACHING 40 
DEGREES. THE NORTH COUNTY WILL REMAIN A BIT COOLER ONLY WARMING INTO 
THE MID 30S. WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL 
KEEP MILD TEMPS NOT FALLING MUCH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL EYES THEN FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRAVEL DISRUPTING WINTER 
STORM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES LEADING UP TO 
AND FOLLOWING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. THE OVERALL THEME WILL BE A 
COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH 
AND ASSOCIATED COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT SHIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE 
OHIO VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES. ON CHRISTMAS EVE 
WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING RAIN 
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS LIKELY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT
THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ON 
CHRISTMAS DAY AS TEMPERATURES COOL ALONG WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG 
WINDS POSSIBLE.

FINER DETAILS...ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND 
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR 
FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 
INTO THE 40S THEN REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR RISE TUESDAY NIGHT 
REACHING NEAR 50 DEGREES BY CHRISTMAS EVE. 90 PERCENT OF NAEFS 
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE ABOVE CLIMO PWATS SO THERE COULD BE SOME 
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL DURING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 

THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK 
ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET OUT IN FRONT MAY BRING 
SOME STRONG CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN WINDS BUT THERE IS ALSO A DOWNSLOPE 
WIND THREAT AS WINDS FORCED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN 
TIER AND TUG HILL DESCEND DOWN TO THE LAKE SHORES. FOLLOWING THE 
FRONTAL PASSAGE COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT 
LAKES REGION. WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE IN THE WEST THE SOURCE REGION OF 
THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC BASED SO THIS 
LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT OF ANY 
SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS DEVELOPING AS 850MB TEMPS SHOULD ONLY DROP TO 
AROUND -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH HOWEVER FOR AN OVERALL 
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW WITH A LAKE ENHANCEMENT PENDING AVAILABLE
POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS IS POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITHIN 
THE COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN 
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HELPING TO MIX 850MB WINDS OF 40-50KTS DOWN TO 
THE SURFACE. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS LOW LEVEL JET 
SHOWING 50-60KTS. THERE IS STILL LACK OF FINER DETAILS IN EXACT 
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE WEATHER IMPACTS DURING THE WEEK OF 
CHRISTMAS. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUALLY BE UPDATED AS WE GET CLOSER 
AND THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO 
THESE FORECAST UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER 
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE 
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR 
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER 
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BY A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND 
REINFORCED BY A SLOWLY WEAKENING NORTHWESTERLY/NORTHERLY UPSLOPE 
FLOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF 
PERIOD...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MVFR CIGS REMAINING PREDOMINANT ACROSS 
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND IFR/MVFR CIGS REMAINING THE GENERAL RULE 
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  

THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH 
COUNTRY AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHERE STRONGER DRYING WILL 
RESULT IN SKIES PARTIALLY CLEARING TONIGHT...INCLUDING AT KART 
WHERE CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AND THEN REMAIN SO THROUGH 
THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK... 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AREAWIDE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN...GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO AND THE CENTRAL GREAT 
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY TRANQUIL 
CONDITIONS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT INTO NEXT WEEK...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS 
SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER A MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME MONDAY AND 
TUESDAY...BEFORE A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM POTENTIALLY BRINGS 
STRONGER WINDS TO THE REGION CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR









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