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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 310105
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
905 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE 
DAYS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY AS WE PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 
IN THE MEANTIME...THE COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT AN 
OCCASIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED BY THE 
WARMER WATERS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW PARKED NEAR 
JAMES BAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND UNSETTLED THROUGH 
THURSDAY...BEFORE THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO RETREAT TOWARDS THE 
ARCTIC BY THE END OF THE WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...WESTERN AND 
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL HAVE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS TO DRY OUT AS 
AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS AFTERNOON'S SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE 
STATE. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW HOT ON IT'S HEELS 
HOWEVER...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY 
MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL ONCE 
AGAIN BE EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES THANKS TO FAVORABLE LAKE-EFFECT 
PARAMETERS. WITH LAKE-INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ONCE AGAIN 
APPROACHING 30KFT AND PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT...LIGHTNING AND SMALL 
HAIL WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...TIED 
PRIMARILY TO THE SHORTWAVE. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CLEARING 
IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE...WE MAY SEE ENOUGH 
LINGERING DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW MORE SCATTERED 
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOL 
AIR ALOFT. THIS COOL AIR IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPRESS 
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE END OF JULY 
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TONIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ON 
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER LEVEL TOUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE 
EASTERN CONUS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WHILE THIS GENERALLY SHOULD 
KEEP A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLAY...MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD CONSENSUS SHOWING A SHORT PERIOD OF FLAT RIDGING ACROSS NEW 
YORK STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A WINDOW 
OF DRY CONDITIONS. LATER ON FRIDAY PWATS AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT 
VECTORS SHOW A SURGE OF MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE 
SOUTHERN TIER. BY SATURDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RELOAD AS THE NEXT 
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE 
COMBINATION OF THIS COOLING ALOFT WITH INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL 
BRING A HIGHER CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY. FORECAST BULK SHEAR LOOKS 
TOO LOW AT THIS TIME FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT.  

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO 
SHIFT FROM NEAR JAMES BAY TO NORTHERN QUEBEC. THIS WILL PULL THE 
COLDEST AIR WITHIN THE TROUGH NORTHWARD. WARMING OVER THE LOWER LAKES 
ALONG WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE WILL HELP BOOST 
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR 
MID-SUMMER. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO TO THE MID 
TO LOW 50S BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO ONLY FALL 
INTO THE LOW 60S TO UPPER 50S. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING FRIDAY WILL 
HELP HIGH TEMPS PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S BUT AN INCREASE 
IN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE ON SATURDAY SHOULD TOP OUT 
TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FULL CONUS 500MB TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE 
NORTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY 
GFS/ECMWF TO SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND 
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 
INCHES WILL KEEP A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WINDOW OF FLAT RIDGING AND 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BRING DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY FOR MOST 
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO 
THEN AGAIN EXHIBIT A DEEPENING BUT THIS TIME PROGRESSIVE GREAT LAKES 
TROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH BRINGS BACK CHANCES OF 
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO MID NEXT WEEK. A PACIFIC SOURCED UPPER FLOW 
PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH WESTERN 
AND CENTRAL NY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS LARGELY EXITED THE 
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE PERIOD OF CLEARING BEHIND 
THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REST OF EVENING WITH SCATTERED MID/HIGH 
CLOUDS WORKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW 
THAT IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. 

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE 
WESTERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE 
ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ACTIVITY BLOSSOMING FROM THE GENESEE 
VALLEY EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE 
SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING DISTURBANCE IS ENHANCED BY 
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. WHILE PREVAILING CONDITIONS WITH THESE SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN 
HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS 
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO 
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE 
CONTINUED BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE 
FORECAST AREA.

OUTLOOK... 
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF LAKES ERIE AND 
ONTARIO HELPED TO GENERATE SOME LAKE INDUCED SHOWERS LAST NIGHT...
AND DURING THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS...WILL ALSO BE 
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATERSPOUTS. 

THIS FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY THE EXCELLENT GUIDANCE OFFERED BY THE 
SZILAGYI NOMOGRAM. OUR H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 8C COMBINED WITH A 
CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 30K SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF 
WATERSPOUTS. THESE HAVE BEEN IN THE FORECAST FOR SOME TIME NOW AND 
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL THUS CARRY THE 
RISK OF ALSO HAVING A WATERSPOUT. 

WHILE WINDS AND WAVES ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE 
HAVE INCREASED TO THE POINT WHERE A SHORT LIVED SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED. 
WINDS ON LK ERIE WILL THEN DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING...
WITH MINIMAL WINDS AND WAVES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MARINERS SHOULD BE ALERT TO SHORT FUSED SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS THAT 
ARE BASED ON HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD BEAR 
WATERSPOUTS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...RSH







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