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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 261135
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
735 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR SOUTHEAST TODAY AND ALLOW FOR
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK
COOL FRONT ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WHEN A COMPLEX
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS STRETCHED FROM NEW 
ENGLAND DOWN THROUGH THE EASTERN MID ATLANTIC STATES AND TOWARDS THE 
CAROLINAS. ALOFT A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN 
PLAINS EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. A SURFACE COLD 
FRONT IS CUTTING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS THE MID 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EARLY MORNING. 

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DISPLAYS PATCHES OF CLOUDS ACROSS WNY THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS MAY 
EXPAND SOME IN COVERAGE AREA WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS THEY PASS 
ACROSS WNY AND INTO CNY THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON A SOUTHWEST 
WIND WILL DEVELOP A LAKE BREEZE THAT WILL BRING CLEARING 
NORTHEASTWARD FROM FIRST LAKE ERIE AND LATER LAKE ONTARIO. INLAND 
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION SOUTH OF LAKE 
ONTARIO AND AWAY FROM THE STABILIZING LAKE BREEZES. OFF LAKE ERIE 
SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST TOWARDS 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.   

FOR TODAY WE SHOULD FINISH THE AFTERNOON HOURS DRY WITH THE UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE NEARBY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A FAIR AMOUNT OF 
INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON BUT 
WITHOUT A STRONG TRIGGER AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEARBY TO 
SUPPRESS ANY LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY LIFT WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING ANY 
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. 

THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS COMBINED WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF 14 TO 
16C WILL BRING A VERY WARM LATE SUMMER DAY TO THE REGION. AFTERNOON 
TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE 80S...WITH MID AND UPPER 80S FOUND 
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND VALLEYS. WITHIN THE GENESEE VALLEY A 
DOWNSLOPE WIND MAY BRING A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS. COUPLED WITH THE 
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE A MUGGY FEEL TO THE AIR. DEWPOINTS WILL 
RISE INTO THE MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON. 

TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL EASE ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE. 
DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND THIS 
INSTABILITY WILL FUEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS LIFT FROM THE 
COLD FRONT NEARS. MOISTURE IS FOUND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND MAY 
OUTPACE THE BEST LIFT FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WE WILL CONTINUE 
WITH THE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AS THERE APPEARS TO BE AN ABSENCE OF GOOD MID LEVEL
LIFT/NO JET STREAK DYNAMICAL LIFT OR LIFT FROM NEGATIVE PVA. FOR THE 
RAIN SHOWER TIMING EXPECT ACTIVITY TO REACH BUFFALO/WATERTOWN 
BETWEEN 9P AND 12 MIDNIGHT...THEN DROP TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND 
THE UPPER GENESEE VALLY LATE TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT 
OF CLOUDINESS...WITH CLOUDS LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS VEER 
AROUND TO WNW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE WITH LOWS 
RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. 
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A WEAKENING BAND OF CONVECTION WITH IT. MUCH 
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK BEHIND 
THE FROM STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO 
THE GREAT LAKES. STRONG CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH FORECAST TO CONTINUE 
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW...ENSURING A DRY PERIOD WITH 
SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS IS 
POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY BUT THE AIR MASS 
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
CRESTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY SEEING 
80S ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR 
A "RIDGE-RIDER" THAT MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY OR 
FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THERE REMAIN CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 
THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE LOWER GREAT 
LAKES AND THE SUBSEQUENT POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF 
BRINGING THE SYSTEM RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS 
KEEPS IT WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS GEORGIAN BAY AND THE OTTAWA 
VALLEY....THEREFORE AM ONLY STICKING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR 
NOW. 

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS WE MOVE 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI 
VALLEY CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE BETWEEN THE 
MODELS DIFFERS MARKEDLY...SO WILL HAVE TO STICK WITH BROADBRUSH 
CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RUN NEAR TO 
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 12Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE 
OBSERVATIONS DISPLAY SOME LIMITED FOG THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER 
VALLEYS THIS MORNING. 

LATER THIS MORNING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY PASS ACROSS WNY...BUT 
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. EXPECT STABLE LAKE SHADOWS 
TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON WITH AREAS NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND 
ONTARIO CLEARING. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 20-25 KNOTS NORTHEAST OF 
LAKE ERIE INCLUDING KBUF-KIAG FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE 
AFTERNOON WITH SOME LOCAL FUNNELING DOWN THE LAKE.

TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. 
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL EXPECT 
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER. THIS ACTIVITY WILL NEAR THE 
NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BETWEEN 03 
AND 06Z...AND THEN DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD 
FRONT SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AS COOL AND MOIST WNW WIND 
FLOW PASSES ACROSS THE TERRAIN. THESE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL 
BE MORE FAVORABLE IN AREAS WHERE RAIN SHOWERS FALL. 

OUTLOOK... 
WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR. 
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR TYPICAL SOUTHERN 
TIER VALLEY FOG WITH LOCAL IFR EACH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. 
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP TO THE EAST TODAY WITH A SOUTHWEST 
WIND FOUND BEHIND THE DEPARTING FEATURE. THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL 
INCREASE TOWARDS 15 KNOTS ON LAKE ERIE TODAY WHICH WILL BRING 2 FOOT 
WAVES ON THE LAKE. 

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE 
ERIE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE 
FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL 
INCREASE WINDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ON LAKE ONTARIO WITH A WNW DIRECTION. 
THESE WNW WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE WAVE HEIGHTS ON LAKE ONTARIO 
LATER WEDNESDAY WITH SCA POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE 
ONTARIO WATERS. WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 3 FEET OR LESS ON 
LAKE ERIE WITH THE PERPENDICULAR WIND FLOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS







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