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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 200810
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
410 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES 
REGION TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE 
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH A WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS. A FEW 
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM MAY BE LEFTOVER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT 
MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN FREE WHILE CONTINUING TO REMAIN WARM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING A WARM FRONT IS FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE ERIE 
AND TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. BEHIND THIS 
WARM FRONT DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS OHIO AND 
WESTERN PA...WHILE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NIAGARA 
FRONTIER...GENESEE VALLEY AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION DEWPOINTS 
REMAIN IN THE 50S. CLOUDINESS IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARMER AIR 
PUSHING NORTHWARD IS FOUND ACROSS WNY...WHILE TO THE EAST MAINLY 
CLEAR SKIES ARE FOUND ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE 
ONTARIO REGION. 

ALOFT A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FOUND OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES 
WITH A SURFACE LOW ALSO REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE OVER NORTHERN 
MICHIGAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A FEW SUBTLE CONVECTIVELY 
AUGMENTS VORTICITY MAXES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW. 

FOR TODAY EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE AS THE 
SURFACE WARM FRONT SLOWLY EDGES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. ACTIVITY 
SHOULD INCREASE BY LATE MORNING WITH ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED MOISTURE 
ALONG THE FRONT IN ADDITION TO INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING. ALSO 
AIDING IN LOW LEVEL LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW 
LEVEL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHWEST. 
PWATS RISE TOWARDS 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES TODAY WITHIN A VERY LIGHT 
SYNOPTIC FLOW. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TO THE REGION AS SLOW MOVING ACTIVITY WILL HAVE 
THE POTENTIAL TO DROP A HEAVY AMOUNT OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF 
TIME. THIS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY ACTIVITY WILL BE LOCALIZED AND WILL 
JUST CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO PRODUCT. WHILE 
WE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SBCAPES 500 TO 1000 
J/KG...MODEST LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY ONLY BRING SCATTERED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MORE LIKELY.   

THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT AND 
FOCUSING BOUNDARY SHIFTS EASTWARD. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THERE MAY 
BE ENOUGH LATE DAY INSTABILITY...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LIFT 
OF THE NEARING UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WNY THIS EVENING. BY LATE OVERNIGHT THE BULK OF 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE TOWARDS THE EAST IN PROXIMITY TO 
THE WARM FRONT...WITH JUST A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WNY UNDER 
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. 

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL PUSH TO NORMAL...OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL 
DESPITE THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS BE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR 
THE REGION...WITH 80S MOST LIKELY TOWARDS THE FINGER LAKES AND 
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE SOME MORNING SUNSHINE WILL BE 
FOUND. TONIGHT A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 
60S WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SPLIT FLOW FEATURING A PSEUDO REX BLOCK OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL 
BREAK DOWN AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG H25 
WINDS RACING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN 
PLAINS AND KICK OUT THE DOWNSTREAM CYCLONE. A BURGEONING RIDGE WILL 
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING 
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERAL IMPROVEMENT 
OVER OUR REGION. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR TEMPERATURES WILL 
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL INTO AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH 
MODERATELY HIGH HUMIDITY.

THE ILL DEFINED REMNANTS OF AN H5 LOW IN THE VCNTY OF GEORGIAN BAY 
THURSDAY MORNING WILL TRACK TO THE EAST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO DURING 
THE COURSE OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE THE ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC REFLECTION 
WILL DRAG ONE LAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF 
OUR FORECAST AREA. THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MORE SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY BEING FOUND 
EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY WHERE THE STRONGEST FORCING NEAR THE SFC 
FRONT WILL BE FOUND. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.75 WILL BE A LITTLE 
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...BUT LIGHT STEERING WINDS EAST OF 
ROCHESTER WILL PERSIST...SO THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR 
SOME SLOW MOVING MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WHILE THE ABUNDANCE OF 
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN SOMEWHAT...A WARM AIRMASS WITH H85 
TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS (C) SHOULD ENABLE MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. THE MODERATELY HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT FEEL 
WARMER AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AFTER OUR RECENT STRETCH OF FALL LIKE 
WEATHER.

THE SHORTWAVE AND SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST AWAY 
FROM OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE THE 
LEFTOVER SHOWERS TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE COURSE OF NIGHT 
WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP A FEW 
DEGREES LOWER (UP 50S-LOW 60S) THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...AN INTERESTING SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE TO OUR 
WEST. AN AMPLIFYING H5 RIDGE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE MISSISSIPPI 
VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND THIS WILL OVERLAY AN AREA OF 
WEAKNESS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SHARPEN 
A THERMAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE ALIGNED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO 
CENTRAL LAKE ERIE. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS 
IN THE VCNTY OF THIS BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST...OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD 
BE MAINLY RAIN FREE. SINCE A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL 
STILL BE IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION THOUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER 
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...PARTICULAR IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL THUS 
MAINTAIN LOW CHC POPS FROM CONTINUITY. 

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE WILL 
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE A STRONG SFC 
HIGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN 
NEW YORK. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP A THERMAL BOUNDARY IN 
PLACE FROM LAKE HURON TO LAKE ERIE AND WRN PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE IT 
WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE BULK 
OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD THUS BE RAIN FREE...PARTICULARLY EAST OF 
THE GENESEE VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER AS A 593DM H5 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE 
OHIO VALLEY WILL EXTEND NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AT THE 
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE VCNTY OF CAP COD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S 
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CLOSE TO 80 IN MANY AREAS MONDAY...AND THE LOWER 
80S FOR MOST ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE 
DEGREES OF 60.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 06Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION AS A WARM 
FRONT PENETRATED DEEPER INTO WNY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE INCREASE 
IN MOISTURE BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH SEVERAL 
POCKETS OF ENERGY ALOFT PASSING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW WILL TRIGGER 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE 
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH BRIEF MVFR IN 
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS IS QUITE POSSIBLE. TONIGHT WITHIN THE MOIST 
AIRMASS SOME MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ALONG 
WITH LOWERING VISIBILITIES. 

OUTLOOK... 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
WITH ATTENDANT LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES WEDNESDAY MORNING 
TO NEAR THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING WHERE IT 
WILL DISSIPATE IN PLACE. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW WILL 
SLOWLY PASS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT 
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY 
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS







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