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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 231940
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
340 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO 
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A 
FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER 
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER 
FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION 
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE 
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT 
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN 
RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING ATLANTIC MOISTURE INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. 
CURRENTLY...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW IS PUSHING AN 
ENHANCED BATCH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK INTO THE 
AREA EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. RADAR IMAGERY AS OF 19Z SHOWS SHOWERS 
PUSHING INTO LEWIS COUNTY...FROM EAST TO WEST...AND THIS WESTWARD 
PUSH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 

OVERNIGHT...THE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND 
THE PRECIPITATION WILL PULL BACK OUT TO THE EAST. DRIER AIR WILL 
BEGIN TO SURGE EASTWARD RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST 
TO EAST WITH CLEARING SKIES. A SHARP CUT-OFF IN CLOUD COVER REMAINS 
IN PLACE NEAR ROCHESTER...WITH CLEAR SKIES TO THE WEST AND OVERCAST 
SKIES TO THE EAST. THIS CLOUD COVER...LIKE THE PRECIPITATION HAS 
TRENDED BACK TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL CLEAR FROM WEST 
TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S 
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE LIGHTER WINDS 
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER MAINLY 
ALONG AND EAST OF GENESEE VALLEY WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 
LOW 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE FOUND ALOFT OVER OUR 
REGION...WHICH WILL LIE BETWEEN A CUT OFF LOW EXITING OFF THE 
ATLANTIC CANADA COASTLINE AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST 
NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THIS RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY 
CONDITIONS...THOUGH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS WE WARM 
ALOFT...AND MOISTURE INCREASES. 

WE MAY START TO SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR LAKE ERIE SATURDAY 
MORNING...BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BE TOWARDS 
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AREAS NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL 
SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES 
AND TOWARDS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE DAY. 
GREATEST LIFT AND LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIE NORTHWARD CLOSER 
TO THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS 
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH LOW CHANCES POPS DOWN 
NEAR THE STATE LINE. 

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DROP ACROSS THE 
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE 
CORE OF THE COLD AIR ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER 
LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE JUST ENOUGH UNSTABLE (-1C 850 HPA) AND WITH A 
GREAT ENOUGH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL (15K FEET) TO GENERATE A 
BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING. FOR LAKE ERIE 
AMBIENT MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO 
THE LONG FETCH OF THE LAKE WILL LIKELY JUST PRODUCE CLOUDS...WITH NO 
BANDS OF RAIN. IN ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE...THERE WILL 
LINGER ENOUGH LIFT UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO STILL GENERATE SOME 
SCATTERED SYNOPTIC SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. 

AS LAKE PARAMETERS BECOME POORER...AND COMBINED WITH DAYTIME 
HEATING THE BAND OF RAIN OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL FALL APART THROUGH 
THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF 
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP TOWARDS WESTERN 
NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS...AND SKIES MAINLY CLEAR. 

A BIT OF WARMTH WILL BE FOUND SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. COOLING AND NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE 
PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A COOLER DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 
LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID 
40S...WITH THE COOLEST NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS 
GO CALM. IN FACT THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE 30S THAN 40S DEGREE 
READINGS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN FAIR AS A WARM FRONT 
LIFTS FAR ENOUGH WESTWARD JUST KEEP OUR AREA DRY. WITH OUR AREA IN 
THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM AND COLD 
FRONT...A GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING NEAR RECORD WARMTH WITH 
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. 

THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ARE NEAR AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING 
OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE IS NOT 
ABUNDANT DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...THERE 
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST HIGH CHANCE POPS ALONG THIS 
COLD FRONT AT THIS TIME. 

BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW WITH 850 HPA DROPPING 
DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE ANOTHER 
LAKE RESPONSE OFF BOTH LAKES WITH WESTERLY FLOW BRING CHANCES FOR 
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING CLEAR
SKIES WEST OF KROC. KROC WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF A
SCT-BKN 4-6K FOOT CLOUD DECK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. KART WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE OF THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE COASTAL
LOW WITH VFR CIGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...DETERIORATING TO MVFR BY
THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY COMPONENT WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR MOST TERMINALS TONIGHT. THERE IS
SOME LOW RISK THAT MVFR CIGS MAY NUDGE WESTWARD ENOUGH TO REACH
KROC...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS TO REMAIN AT KART...
POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER TO IFR FOR A TIME.
 
OUTLOOK...   
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR 
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. 
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. 
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. 
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND FURTHER 
AWAY FROM OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE MODERATE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL 
WEAKEN...WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES IN THIS REGION TO DIMINISH 
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY THIS EVENING.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THE REST 
OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS 
THE LOWER LAKES AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL 
WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/JJR
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...CHURCH/JJR/TMA
MARINE...CHURCH/JJR







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