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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 162351
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
751 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING 
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL 
THEN CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING 
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER 
AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH 
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE 
WEEK. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION 
LATE IN THE WEEKEND BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
AVERAGE...HOWEVER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE REGION.

BY 700 PM...DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED BUT HAVE BEEN
REPLACED WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AS CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES DEVELOP
ON LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST
STATES WILL RIDGE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
TRAP SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH A
LINE OF CLOUDS LIKELY ALONG CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES WHICH SHOULD
GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THE BIG QUESTION FOR TONIGHT
IS HOW EXPANSIVE THIS CLOUD COVER WILL BE...WITH MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING RATHER MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS
SAID...GUIDANCE CAN ALSO UNDERDO THIS MOISTURE. TAKING THIS INTO
ACCOUNT...EXPECT THERE TO BE AT LEAST SOME CLOUD COVER...BUT WITH
CONSIDERABLE BREAKS AMPLE TO ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLIDE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH A FEW UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED 
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT 
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY PROVIDING 
ANOTHER DAY OF DRY...BUT CONTINUED COOL WEATHER. EXPECT SOME DIURNAL 
CUMULUS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AGAIN WEDNESDAY INLAND FROM THE 
LAKES...WITH SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERSPREADING THE 
NORTH COUNTRY OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER AS 850MB TEMPERATURES 
CLIMB FROM AROUND +4C TO +6C BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT 
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH A FEW 
UPPER 60S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE TYPICALLY WARMER 
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NOW EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE 
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL SAG INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 
MODELS SUGGESTING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP ACROSS THE 
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEST FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE COOL 
SIDE OF THE FRONT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE WAVE MOVING 
ACROSS ONTARIO/SOUTHERN QUEBEC. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS 
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THIS FRONT SHOULD 
COME THROUGH DRY. 

IN RESPONSE TO STRONG 1000-500MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT RISES SWINGING 
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...A VERY STABLE ANTICYCLONE IS FORECASTED TO 
DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND 
FRIDAY. INCOMING AIR MASS LOOKS QUITE DRY...BUT ALSO QUITE CHILLY 
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR -2C BY THURSDAY NIGHT. 
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE SEASON. 
ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH MOISTURE FLUXING OFF LAKE ONTARIO 
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE CLOUDINESS HOLDING UP TEMPERATURES. 
THE NORTH COUNTY SHOULD BE CLEAR WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES MUCH
MORE LIKELY.  

THE ARCTIC HIGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON 
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO 
SET UP WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MINOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DURING THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES 
TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH PUSHES TO 
THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...POSSIBLY EVEN 
WARMER LOOK LIKELY FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE 
APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACTLY 
HOW THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL PLAY OUT. CLASSIC SHORTWAVE RIDGING 
SHOULD PROTECT THE AREA FROM PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY 
SUNDAY...IF THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS VERIFY. AT THIS POINT...THE MODEL 
CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE 
THUNDER CONTINUES TO BE IN THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY 
MONDAY TIME FRAME WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. FRONT LOOKING 
TO TAP INTO SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS...BUT 
IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICK ENOUGH TO 
LIMIT HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. 

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPSTREAM TELECONNECTIONS SUPPORT THE 
REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH 
THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF HUDSON BAY EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN 
CONUS. WITH MOST OF THE EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS 
SUPPORTING THIS SOLUTION THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME VERY 
CHILLY AIR TO MAKE A RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 23Z...VFR CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE
MOST PART THIS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SPARSE VFR CIGS EAST
OF THE LAKES LIKELY TO DROP SOUTH. LATER TONIGHT THERE MAY BE SOME
FOG AT JHW...WITH THE MAINLY DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
THERE IS. A PROLONGED CLEARING MAY ALLOW PATCHY BUT DENSE VALLEY
FOG...HOWEVER LINGERING CLOUDS EAST OF LAKE ERIE LOWERS CONFIDENCE
IN THIS HAPPENING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION DURING THE 
COURSE OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER DAY OF DRY...BUT 
CONTINUED COOL WEATHER. ANY EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS 
THE INLAND SOUTHERN TIER SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING...AND 
LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DO EXPECT SOME DIURNAL 
CUMULUS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY INLAND FROM THE 
LAKES...WITH SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS STARTING TO 
OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. 

OUTLOOK... 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR. SOME PATCHES OF 
MVFR CIGS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME VALLEY FOG WITH LOCALIZED IFR FLIGHT 
VSBYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING. 
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE ONTARIO NEAR SHORE WATERS THIS EVENING BEHIND A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. THOUGH MARGINAL...OBS ARE SHOWING 3 TO 4 FT
WAVES ON EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH SUPPORTS THE
ADVISORY. OTHERWISE WINDS AND WAVES IN OTHER ZONES WILL REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWS A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY ON LAKE
ERIE/ONTARIO WHICH HAS A SMALL CHANCE TO PRODUCE WATERSPOUTS.
HOWEVER EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS APPEAR TOO LOW...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE
THE POTENTIAL. FOR NOW...WILL MONITOR RADAR/REPORTS BEFORE ADDING
TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JM
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/JM




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