000
FXUS61 KBUF 100836
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
336 AM EST WED FEB 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF MARYLAND THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO 
STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TODAY TO EAST OF LONG 
ISLAND BY THIS EVENING. THE STORM WILL PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWS 
OVER MOST OF OUR REGION BUT WE WILL DODGE ANOTHER BULLET AS THE REAL 
HEAVY SNOW REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE MAJOR EASTERN 
CITIES. THE STORM WILL EVENTUALLY END UP NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND BY FRIDAY 
AND THEN DRIFT BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE 
WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP US COLDER THAN NORMAL WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW 
DRAWING IN AIR FROM THE HUDSON BAY AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWING A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW 
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AT 08Z WITH AN IMPRESSIVE EXTENSION OF THE 
SUB-TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL JET WRAPPING NORTHWARD UP THE GULF STREAM 
TO THE EAST OF THE CLOSED LOW. AT THE SURFACE...08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS 
SHOWS A PARENT LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WITH 
SECONDARY COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OFF CAPE 
HATTERAS. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES...WITH THE 
MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. 
THE PARENT LOW WILL QUICKLY FILL AND GIVING WAY TO THE COASTAL LOW 
THIS MORNING AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL 
FRONT...WHICH WILL UNDERGO BOMBOGENESIS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT 
DEEPENS TO 970MB OR LOWER ON ITS WAY OUT TO SEA. 

LOOKING AT THE FINER SCALE DETAILS...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE LEFT 
BEHIND ACROSS NORTHWEST PA AND WESTERN NY THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY AS A 
REMNANT OF THE PARENT SURFACE LOW. THIS SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE 
CONVERGENCE ACROSS WESTERN NY...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER 
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SNOW IN 
POCKETS RATHER THAN A SOLID SHIELD...INDICATIVE OF A WEAKENING 
SYSTEM. EXPECT THE SNOW TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY DAYBREAK AS THE 
INVERTED TROUGH WORKS NORTHWARD AND A LARGER AREA OF SNOW OVER 
WESTERN PA PIVOTS NORTH AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW. 

FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BACK 
FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTH WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE DEEPENING ACROSS 
THE AREA. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR OUR TYPICAL UPSLOPE SNOW WE 
SEE ON THE BACKSIDE OF MANY SYSTEMS. EXPECT A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING 
SNOW TO WORK SOUTH FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER 
AND FINGER LAKES WITH THIS. THE BEST UPSLOPE WILL BE ACROSS THE 
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THE LAKES ARE NO CONCERN 
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH THE AIRMASS SIMPLY NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR 
ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT. 

AS FAR AS AMOUNTS GO...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE FOUND ACROSS 
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES DUE TO A 
COMBINATION OF CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE INVERTED TROUGH THIS MORNING 
THEN UPSLOPE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE WITH MAX AMOUNTS OF AROUND 6 
INCHES IN THIS AREA TODAY. AMOUNTS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH MOVING AWAY 
FROM THIS AREA...WITH 3-4 INCHES ACROSS ALLEG/SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING 
COUNTIES WITH 2-3 INCHES IN THE BUFFALO TO BATAVIA CORRIDOR. EXPECT 
AMOUNTS TO DIMINISH FURTHER ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO 
WITH 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE TIER OF COUNTIES BORDERING THE LAKE. TOUGH 
CALL ON POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. IT APPEARS LOW 
LEVEL DRY AIR WILL WIN OUT FOR THE MOST PART...WITH ONLY SOME 
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW MAKING IT IN AT TIMES LATER 
TODAY. EXPECT ACCUMS TO ONLY BE A DUSTING TO AN INCH...WITH THE 1 
INCH AMOUNTS CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL.

TONIGHT THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL QUICKLY END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS 
THE COASTAL LOW PULLS OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL LEAVE SOME LINGERING 
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SNOW 
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVERNIGHT. OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS BACK TO THE 
MESOSCALE. AIRMASS BECOMES MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A VERY 
LIMITED LAKE RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT WITH 850MB 
TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -10C. THIS WILL YIELD LAKE INDUCED CAPES 
OF AROUND 130J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 4K FEET. THE 
THERMODYNAMICS ARE VERY LIMITED...BUT SIMILAR VALUES PRODUCED SOME 
LIGHT SNOW EARLIER IN THE WEEK. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL INCLUDE AN 
AREA OF HIGHER POPS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO ESPECIALLY 
FROM ORLEANS TO WESTERN OSWEGO COUNTY. MAY SEE SOME SPOTTY 1-2 INCH 
ACCUMULATIONS OUT OF THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE DEEP COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST DURING THIS 
PERIOD AND WIND UP NEW NEWFOUNDLAND BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE 
CIRCULATION PATTERN AROUND THIS LARGE DEEP LOW WILL REACH AS FAR 
WEST AS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. IT WILL PRODUCE A NORTHWEST FLOW OF 
COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR ACROSS OUR REGION. 

LOOKING AT THE PROJECTED SOUNDINGS THE COLD BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE 
MOIST BUT RATHER SHALLOW WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 3 
THOUSAND FEET. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE ADVERTISED IN THE CRYSTAL 
GROWTH REGION. SO...IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL END UP WITH A LOT OF 
CLOUD COVER BUT NOT VERY MUCH SNOW. WE WILL CARRY CHANCE 
PROBABILITIES FOR MOST AREAS AND SOME LIKELIES SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF 
LAKE ONTARIO. WE WILL KEEP QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS VERY SMALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT 
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL 
LAKES AND A DEEP LOW RETROGRADES THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. 
850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -10C TO -14C RANGE WE WILL BE MARGINALLY
COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOWS. THIS FLOW REGIME WOULD 
FAVOR AREAS SOUTH EAST OF THE LAKES.

ECMWF/GFS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A CLIPPER SYSTEM WORKING THROUGH THE 
AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WOULD BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD 
GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST OF THE 
LAKES IS LIKELY.

THIS FLOW REGIME SHOULD ALLOW FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING 
THE PERIOD. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH LOWS IN 
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS...WHICH ARE A GOOD 5 DEGREES BELOW 
NORMAL FOR FOR MID FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY 
OVERNIGHT...THEN MERGE WITH AN INTENSIFYING EAST COAST STORM ON 
WEDNESDAY. 

MAINLY LIGHT SNOW FORMING NORTH OF THE LAKE ERIE LOW WILL PICK UP IN 
INTENSITY LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE 
INCREASES ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SET UP BETWEEN THE 
WEAKENING LOWER LAKES LOW AND THE INTENSIFYING COASTAL LOW. 

EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO IFR AS THE SNOW 
BECOMES A BIT MORE STEADY LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  

THE STEADIER SNOW WILL TAPER OFF GRADUALLY FROM WEST TO EAST 
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL LOW TAKES OVER. THIS WILL ALLOW 
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH 
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.   

OUTLOOK... 
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. 
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS
THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW MOVING TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO
HAVE A LARGE INFLUENCE ON THE CIRCULATION PATTERN TO THE WEST OF
IT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH FOR BRISK WINDS
AND WAVE ACTION. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST RIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND AND MAY STRENGTHEN AS THE LOW RETROGRADES TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR 
     NYZ010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY 
         FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SAGE
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SAGE
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...TJP
MARINE...SAGE