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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 051745
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1245 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING A RETURN TO 
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS 
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF 
THE COMING WEEK AS TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TOWARDS 
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH READINGS POTENTIALLY CLIMBING ABOVE 
AVERAGE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STREAMERS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW 
FALLING SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA HAVE DROPPED 
TO ABOUT -20C ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE 
ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE TO PERSIST THESE LIGHT AND NARROW LAKE 
EFFECT STREAMERS THROUGH THE DAY. THAT SAID...NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH 
ACCUMULATION IN SNOW WITH THE SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS OF 4-5K 
FEET. EAST OF LAKE ERIE THERE MAY BE A SPOT FLURRY ACROSS THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN. 

MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TO THE NORTH OF A 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING TO OUR SOUTH. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE 
PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL GENERATE CLOUDS THROUGH THE 
DAY...WITH ANY CLEARING ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NIAGARA 
RIVER REGION NOT UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THE REGION WILL 
HAVE TO WAIT TILL TONIGHT BEFORE CLEARING COMMENCES.  

TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE TODAY AS ONGOING COLD ADVECTION WILL 
OFFSET MUCH OF THE DIABATIC HEATING...LEADING TO HIGHS THAT WILL 
BARELY CREEP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS. 

ONCE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THE REGION THIS EARLY EVENING...AND 
COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR...SKIES WILL 
BEGIN TO CLEAR IN EARNEST ACROSS THE REGION. THE CLEARING SKIES AND 
DIMINISHING WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE REGION-WIDE WITH THE ONLY 
EXCEPTION BEING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD 
COVER IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT. THE 
LIGHT WINDS AND LARGELY CLEAR SKIES COUPLED WITH THE VERY COLD AND 
DRY AIR OVERHEAD WILL PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH 
READINGS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO...WITH 
AREAS NEAR THE LAKES STAYING ABOVE ZERO WHILE AREAS INLAND WILL 
LIKELY DROP BELOW ZERO. THE LIGHT EVENING BREEZE SHOULD DIMINISH 
ALMOST ENTIRELY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WHILE 
WINDS CHILLS WILL CERTAINLY WILL RUN CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS...THEY 
SHOULD STAY JUST A HAIR ABOVE THE -15 THRESHOLD THANKS TO THE 
SLACKENING WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY 
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD SUNSHINE THROUGH 
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH INTO THE 
UPPER TEENS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY 
AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

MODELS SHOW THIS SURFACE TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC MOISTURE 
AND SUPPORT FROM A 850MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS THE LOWER 
GREAT LAKES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. 00Z GFS IS A BIT 
FASTER THAN 00Z ECMWF WHICH HOLDS BACK THE ARRIVAL OF SNOW UNTIL 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST A FEW 
HUNDREDTHS QPF BUT WITHIN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS A COATING TO AN INCH OF 
FLUFFY DENDRITES COULD ACCUMULATE WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOCUSED 
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE 
TROUGH AXIS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS TOWARD 30 DEGREES SATURDAY. 

ON THE HEELS OF SATURDAYS TROUGH PASSAGE A WEAK CLIPPER IS FORECAST 
TO QUICKLY CROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS CLIPPER LOOKS TO FEATURE A 
BIT MORE MOISTURE AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THAT THE PREVIOUS 
SURFACE TROUGH. A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED VORT MAX 
SHOULD BRING A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD SNOW WITH LIKELY 
POPS FEATURED SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOW BETTER ALIGNED 
WITH THE GFS WHICH SUPPORTS THE INCREASE IN POPS. THE SNOW AND CLOUD 
COVER AND MISSING DIRECT PATHWAY TO ARCTIC AIR WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT 
TEMPS SATURDAY MUCH WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS. LOWS ONLY 
FALLING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTY AND LOWER 20S 
ELSEWHERE. CHANCES OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AS THE CLIPPER 
DEPARTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. YET ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BE WORKING 
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES BEHIND THIS CLIPPER WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION 
SUPPORTING HIGHS PUSHING TOWARD THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ONE LAST SURFACE TROUGH AND SUPPORTING 500MB SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST 
TO CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF 
SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO FINALLY KICK 
THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST. WARMING ALOFT AS A 
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL 500MB FLOW TAKES SHAPE INTO NEXT WEEK WILL HELP 
BOOST TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD NORMAL ON MONDAY THEN FINALLY INTO AT 
LEAST THE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SOME 00Z GUIDANCE EVEN 
SUGGESTING A CHANCE AT 50 ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. 
BOTH DAYS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS A SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST 
AND MID ATLANTIC...WITH A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING 
THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC LEAVING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN ACROSS THE 
LOWER GREAT LAKES.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON HOW LONG 
THE WARMING TREND WILL LAST. THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL 
WITHIN THE POLAR JET ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF 
NEXT WEEK WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER BAJA.
THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REST OF 
THE WEEK. THE 00Z GFS LOOKS TO HAVE FLIP-FLOPPED WITH THE 12Z ECMWF 
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES FOR 
THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A RETURN TO BELOW 
NORMAL TEMPS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDS (MVFR/LOW VFR) AND 
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS 
AFTERNOON. WITHIN THESE NARROW LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS WILL BE 
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR VSBYS. WILL INCLUDE BRIEF MVFR VSBYS FOR 
KBUF/KIAG AND THE KROC AIRFIELDS...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACTIVITY 
LIKELY PERSISTING THE LONGEST ACROSS THE KROC AIRFIELD. 

WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK AROUND TO WESTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE 
MID WEST PUSHES EASTWARD AND THIS SHIFT IN WIND FLOW WILL TAKE LIGHT 
SNOW SHOWERS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN EASTERN END OF THE LAKE 
ONTARIO. COUPLED WITH THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DRIER AIR 
WHICH WILL ERODE THE DECK OF CLOUDS HANGING OVER THE AIRFIELDS THIS 
AFTERNOON. EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR BY THIS EARLY EVENING 
FOR ALL TAF SITES...WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THEN PERSISTING 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE. ONLY EXCEPTION MAYBE SOME 
MVFR CIGS ACROSS KART DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE FROM 
WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY.   

OUTLOOK... 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. 
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE. 
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY. 
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. 
TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MID WEST BUILDS EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON 
WINDS OVER THE LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. AS 
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS THE LAKES TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME 
LIGHTER TONIGHT. BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE LAKES 
TOMORROW AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER 
THAT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS







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