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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 281151
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
651 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY WITH FAIR WEATHER...FOLLOWED ON 
THURSDAY BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING A FEW INCHES OF 
WIDESPREAD SNOW TO NEW YORK. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE 
IN LATER FRIDAY AND CROSS THE STATE SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY A DEEPENING 
LOW WILL BRING A THREAT FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW INTO MONDAY. 
ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND LOCALIZED LAKE 
EFFECT SNOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD START THIS MORNING AS LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES 
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO HAVE HELPED 
TEMPERATURES DROP THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS THIS MORNING. PARTS OF 
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK HAVE EVEN PUSHED BELOW ZERO. THE 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY MAKING 
FOR A VERY PLEASANT LATE JANUARY DAY THROUGHOUT THE REGION AND 
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. 
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL HOWEVER WITH HIGHS ONLY RISING 
TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 20. THE TUG HILL MAY BE THE 
ONLY EXCEPTION REMAINING IN THE LOW TEENS.

TONIGHT THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSES ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA WITH SURFACE
RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS NEW YORK TO QUEBEC. CLEAR SKIES IN 
THE EVENING WILL AGAIN ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF QUICKLY. AN 
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ARRIVAL OF CLOUD COVER ALOFT AHEAD OF 
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST LATER OVERNIGHT SHOULD HELP KEEP 
LOW TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING THIS 
MORNING BUT NOT BY MUCH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES 
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES 
THURSDAY WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONG WARM 
AIR ADVECTIVE PATTERN/ASCENT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE LOW THURSDAY AND 
PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. INITIALLY THERE WILL BE QUITE A 
BIT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT MAKE 
TAKE SEVERAL HOURS TO TOP DOWN SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO GET 
SNOW GOING. THIS THINKING WOULD BRING THE GREATEST RISK FOR 
ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. 

ACCUMULATIONS...GETS QUITE WARM ALOFT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE 
0C 850 MB ISOTHERM NOSING INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER WHICH WOULD SUGGEST 
FAIRLY LOW SNOW TO WATER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 8-12:1. THIS WILL 
LIKELY HOLD AMOUNTS DOWN IN THE 1 TO 2 INCHES RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE 
AREA...BUT PERHAPS A 3-5 INCH ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THURSDAY 
NIGHT AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE LOW.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...SYSTEM CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST FOLLOWED 
BY FAIRLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION/GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR 
FRIDAY... BEFORE DIMINISHING FRIDAY NIGHT. AS -16C TO -20C 850 MB 
AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES FRIDAY...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS IN 
THE FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT 
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH INCOMING AIRMASS WILL 
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DRY AND SHOULD LIMIT ANY SUBSTANTIAL LAKE 
EFFECT SNOWFALL. LIMITED NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE 
FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH ANY ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS 
VERY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO IN MANY 
AREAS EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND 
COLD TEMPS MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS FRIDAY 
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW MAY STILL SUPPORT A FEW LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES OR 
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT 
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND PROVIDE 
A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER. 

THE OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER 
THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH THE HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY AND 
MONDAY. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF TAKE A SURFACE LOW FROM THE LOWER 
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY TO TO THE MID ATLANTIC OR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 
MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH INTERACT AND PHASE. 
THIS TRACK AND STREAM INTERACTION WOULD PRODUCE A SOLID SHIELD OF 
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK...INCLUDING OUR 
ENTIRE REGION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL 
OF SPREAD AMONGST THE 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLES WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK 
OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH SOME MEMBERS KEEPING THIS SYSTEM SUPPRESSED 
AND WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA...AND SOME WITH TIMING ALMOST 24 HOURS 
DIFFERENT THAN THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. GIVEN THIS ENSEMBLE 
UNCERTAINTY AND THE TIME RANGE...THIS SYSTEM IS STILL RELATIVELY LOW 
CONFIDENCE. NONETHELESS WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUPPORT HAVE 
INCREASED POPS INTO THE LOW LIKELY RANGE.  

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ENTERS THE REGION 
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT EVENT...BUT OBVIOUSLY THIS IS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE BEING 7 DAYS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT 
WINDS THIS MORNING THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM 
INDIANA. JUST A SMALL PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOWING UP OVER 
SOUTHWEST ERIE COUNTY ON SATELLITE BUT WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER 
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE SKC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT THEN SOME MID 
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL WORK EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK FOR 
EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING OUR REGION.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...IFR IN SNOW BY AFTERNOON. 
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
SUNDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS ARE FOUND ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING AS HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM OHIO. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SLOWLY BACK 
TO THE WEST TODAY AND EVENTUALLY TO THE SOUTH BY THURSDAY WITH WAVES 
BUILDING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF LAKE ONTARIO. THURSDAY NIGHT WINDS 
VEER BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH A CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 
CONDITIONS AGAIN.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH







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