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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 011952
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
352 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ASIDE FROM A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS 
SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK 
THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY 
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD 
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND 
FINGER LAKES. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD 
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND BRING A RETURN TO DRIER AND LESS 
HUMID WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF MID AFTERNOON...REGIONAL RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 
THAT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP 
AND LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A SUBTLE MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE ZONE DRAPED 
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ERIE NORTHEASTWARD TO MONROE 
COUNTY...WITH A SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO HELPING TO GIVE THIS 
ACTIVITY A SLIGHT BOOST. EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO 
PERSIST FROM THIS AREA EASTWARD INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION THROUGH 
EARLY THIS EVENING...AFTER WHICH TIME THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY 
WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...AND AS THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE 
ZONE FALLS APART/AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DEPARTS OUR REGION.

LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AN INITIAL 
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH/ATTENDANT WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER 
MICHIGAN WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION. WHILE THESE FEATURES 
ARE CURRENTLY FORCING A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS LOWER 
MICHIGAN...THESE WILL BE WEAKENING/SHEARING OUT AS THEY MOVE EAST 
INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT...AND WILL ALSO BE COMING THROUGH AT AN 
UNFAVORABLE TIME IN THE DIURNAL CYCLE. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND... 
EXPECT THESE TO ONLY BRING A BRIEF LOW-END RISK OF A SHOWER OR TWO 
TO MOST PLACES TONIGHT...FOR WHICH SOME LOW-END CHANCE POPS WILL BE 
IN PLAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY NIGHT...WITH SOME INCREASE 
IN LOWER STRATUS AGAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS STATED...IT 
WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH LOWS NOT GETTING BELOW THE MID 
TO UPPER 60S...WITH THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK LIKELY 
NOT FALLING BELOW THE LOWER 70S DUE TO A STRENGTHENING 
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

ON TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL 
SLIDE EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER LAKES REGION... 
WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT EASING EASTWARD ACROSS THE 
FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. IN ADVANCE OF THIS 
FRONT...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH 
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING TWO INCHES...WHILE LARGE-SCALE 
LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OWING TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASING 
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT/THE NOSE OF A 30-40 KT LOW-MID LEVEL 
JET...SUPPORTING SYNOPTIC-SCALE DCVA/HEIGHT FALLS...AND INCREASING 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120+ KNOT 
UPPER LEVEL JET. COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...ALL OF THIS SHOULD 
RESULT IN FAIRLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING 
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES OUR REGION...FOR WHICH SOME 
LIKELY TO LOW-END CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE IN PLAY.

WHILE THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF WIND IN PLACE ALOFT TO KEEP 
THINGS MOVING ALONG...GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS THERE STILL WILL 
BE AT LEAST SOME THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON TUESDAY... 
ESPECIALLY IF ANY STRONGER/HEAVIER CELLS MANAGE TO TRAIN REPEATEDLY 
OVER A PARTICULAR AREA. THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS SOMEWHAT 
LESS CLEAR GIVEN LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH 
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE 
FRONT...HOWEVER WITH 35-45 KNOTS WORTH OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN 
PLACE...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF ATTENDANT 
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS CERTAINLY EXISTS PROVIDED ENOUGH 
INSTABILITY CAN ULTIMATELY BE REALIZED. AT THIS POINT...A ROUGH 
MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WILL 
EXIST FROM INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER NORTHEASTWARD 
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION...WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND 
LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICS WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED UPON EACH OTHER. NOT 
COINCIDENTALLY... THIS AGREES QUITE WELL WITH SPC'S LATEST DAY 2 
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...WHICH PORTRAYS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS 
ACROSS THIS PARTICULAR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA 
TUESDAY NIGHT. MOST 12Z GUIDANCE HAS THE TRAILING EDGE OF SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONT ALONG THE SE BORDER OF THE CWA AT 
00Z. ONCE THIS EXITS...EXPECT DRY WEATHER LATE TUESDAY EVENING WHICH 
WILL LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL 
GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE MODESTLY COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH MOSTLY SKIES TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY.

ON THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE JET STREAM 
WELL TO OUR NORTH IN CANADA. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS 
MINNESOTA THURSDAY...WITH MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION FORECAST TO 
LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE A STRAY SPRINKLE OR SHOWER 
IN NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE 
REGION STAYS DRY. A NAM/GFS CONSENSUS WARMS 850MB TEMPERATURES IN 
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TO +18C BY 00Z FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON TIMING OF 
THE FRONT...HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S IN MOST 
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY 
NIGHT...MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS 
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FACTOR FOR THE 
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH 12Z GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERING ON THE FRONTS 
TIMING AND HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE BEHIND IT. THE FORECAST WILL 
FOLLOW A CONSENSUS OF THIS GUIDANCE WHICH IS NOTABLY SLOWER THAN THE 
12Z GGEM IN TERMS OF TIMING...AND WARMER THAN THE 12Z GFS WITH 
POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY SHOULD SUMMER-LIKE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. THE FRONT IS 
LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE FOR 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH A 
NIGHTTIME PASSAGE...EXPECT ONLY A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH THE 
FRONT...AND POSSIBLY BEHIND IT WITH SOME ANAFRONTAL PRECIPITATION. 

THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY 
WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THIS GUIDANCE 
DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO +5C...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN 
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH A BIT 
MORE SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MUCH 
COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ATTENDANT BRIEF 
LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK 
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR THESE 
EXTENDING ALONG AND A BIT EAST OF A KDKK-KROC AXIS. OTHERWISE... 
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT 
HOURS.

TONIGHT...ANY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER 
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A WEAKENING PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL 
THEN CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND 
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND COULD BRING A FEW MORE WIDELY SCATTERED 
SHOWERS...HOWEVER THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT 
ON AVIATION INTERESTS. OVERNIGHT...SOME LOWER MVFR/IFR STRATUS MAY 
ONCE AGAIN REDEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE GENERAL VFR 
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.

ON TUESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY EASE EASTWARD ACROSS THE 
REGION THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. COUPLED WITH INCREASING 
DAYTIME INSTABILITY...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO 
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...WITH 
SOME OF THESE POTENTIALLY BRINGING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. A FEW 
OF THESE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS INTERIOR 
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...WHERE OVERALL 
INSTABILITY APPEARS AS IF IT WILL BE THE STRONGEST. 

OUTLOOK...  
TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND 
EASTERN SECTIONS...WITH CONDITIONS MOSTLY RETURNING TO VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH 
ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...BEFORE 
CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE 
FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY 
MORNING...PARTICULARLY ON ON LAKE ERIE WHERE WINDS AND WAVES WILL 
CLIMB TO JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL ALSO 
PRODUCE A ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY... 
A FEW OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. 

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS 
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE BRINGING A RETURN TO 
FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/JJR







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