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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 220218
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1018 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS 
THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE A WARM FRONT 
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST. A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL 
LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN 
FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS 
EASTERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW 
ENGLAND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS 
ON SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING SHOWING A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED 
SHOWERS PERSISTING...MAINLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE DEEPER 
MOISTURE AND MORE FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT REMAIN. A FEW SHOWERS 
ARE ALSO STILL FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN 
FINGER LAKES. EXPECT MOST OF THE SHOWERS TO VERY SLOWLY END 
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO 
WHERE ENOUGH SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT MAY REMAIN TO OFFSET DIURNAL 
COOLING AND SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. SKIES 
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT ELSEWHERE 
EXPECT THE PARTIAL CLEARING WHICH HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED TO PERSIST 
MOST OF THE TIME.  

AS THE SURFACE LOW FALLS APART ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND SURFACE 
WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL 
BRING AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION. NAM BUFKIT MODEL POINT 
SOUNDINGS SHOW A STEEP SURFACE BASED INVERSION DEVELOPING LATE 
TONIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH A DEEP LAYER OF NEAR SATURATION AT 
THE SURFACE... INDICATING SUPPORTIVE LOW LEVELS FOR FOG FORMATION. 
UPS FOG METHOD IS ALSO QUITE FAVORABLE WITH FORECAST LOWS SEVERAL 
DEGREES UNDER THE TXOVER TEMPS.

FRIDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST JUST OFF THE 
NEW ENGLAND COAST...YET CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP ENOUGH INSTABILITY 
PRESENT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE 
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY WILL BE 
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. THAT 
SAID...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED OUT JUST SOUTH OF NEW 
YORK STATE...BUT MAY BE JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF A FEW 
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TOWARD THE PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN ON TRACK...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 
MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS 
TOUCHING 80. TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH 
A CONTINUED MUGGINESS FEEL TO THE AIR...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE 
FOG FORMS. EXPECT ABOUT THE SAME AGAIN FOR HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE 
REGION TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOWER 
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP ATLANTIC 
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL 
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE FACTORS WILL BE 
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY 
BEFORE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO TILT ACROSS 
THE REGION. THIS WILL USHER IN A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE REGION 
WITH SUNDAY BEING DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY.

THE ADVECTION OF RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST MARITIME AIR OFF THE 
ATLANTIC ACROSS THE REGION WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES DURING THE 
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SATURDAY...WITH COOLER READINGS IN 
THE LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO 
SHORELINE WHILE LOW TO MID 60S WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY 
NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS 
TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB 
INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH FURTHER WARMING EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPANSIVE RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
MAINTAIN FOR THE MOST PART DRY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL 
AGREEMENT (OUTSIDE OF THE USUAL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND 
STRENGTH)THAT BY MID-WEEK THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID-WEST WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE THE 
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES THE 
LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURE WISE EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS DURING 
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY 
LATE THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN 
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...AND ALSO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A 
FEW OF THESE MAY PRODUCE BRIEF/LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. MOST OF THE 
LIGHTNING IS NOW GONE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STARTING TO STABILIZE. 
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NY SHOULD WEAKEN BY AROUND 
MIDNIGHT. 

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY THROUGH 04Z-06Z. 
PARTIAL CLEARING...HIGH NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE...AND SOME RADIATIONAL 
COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY 
FROM THE FINGER LAKES WESTWARD. MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS AND UPS FOG 
METHOD ARE BOTH QUITE FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. WITH 
THIS IN MIND...HAVE BROUGHT IN IFR FOG TO KIAG/KROC/KJHW WHERE FOG 
IS MOST FAVORED UNDER THIS TYPE OF SETUP. LEFT IT OUT OF KBUF FOR 
NOW GIVEN THE LACK OF RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND A LOWER TXOVER 
NUMBER. ALSO LEFT IT OUT OF KART WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER THERE.

ON FRIDAY MORNING FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z. IF LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS STILL DEEP ENOUGH...THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR/IFR 
CIGS BEFORE MIXING OUT TO VFR BY MIDDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WITH 
LOCAL MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK... 
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. 
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL 
DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NEW YORK 
STATE. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE 
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THIS LOW TRACKS 
EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN 
IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JM
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...JM





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