Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Buffalo, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KBUF 241753
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
153 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE 
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...WITH LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM THE FINGER 
LAKES EASTWARD GIVING WAY TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. ANOTHER 
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL THEN PUSH A 
COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED 
SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING FULL SUNSHINE 
ACROSS THE BULK OF THE AREA. AN AREA OF THICKER CIRRUS LEVEL 
CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE 
STATE WITH SOME LIMITED SUNSHINE FILTERING THROUGH THE HIGH CLOUDS. 
THE WESTERN EDGE OF A LOWER CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE EAST 
COAST STORM WILL CONTINUE TO CLIP MAINLY EASTERN LEWIS COUNTY WITH 
SOME CLOUD COVER.

WITH THE SUNSHINE AND 925 MB TEMPS RUNNING BETWEEN +6C AND 
+9C...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD LARGELY REACH INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE 
TODAY...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND 
THE WARMEST TEMPS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORMALLY WARMER INTERIOR 
PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES. 

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL SLIDE FROM 
SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO EASTERN NEW YORK. ON ITS BACKSIDE...THE 
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 KFT OR SO 
OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THIS WILL HELP ADVECT INCREASING AMOUNTS 
OF LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT 
LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING LOW CLOUDS OVER TIME...
WITH THIS TREND MOST PRONOUNCED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 
OTHERWISE...THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS RANGING 
THROUGH THE 40S. THE WARMEST OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE 
LAKE ERIE SHORE...WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP READINGS 
FROM FALLING BELOW THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE COUNTRY THROUGH 
THIS PERIOD...AND AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE LATE 
OCTOBER NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OFF BRITISH COLUMBIA 
WILL BE THE LATEST TO SUPPORT THIS PATTERN...AS IT WILL DIRECT A 
DEEP PACIFIC FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE LOWER 48. AS WAS 
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...ANY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN LOCKED 
UP IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC. 

MEANWHILE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AT THE START OF 
THIS PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT EAST WITHIN A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE. 
THIS RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AS A DIRECT RESULT OF A VERY POTENT UPSTREAM 
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL SLAM INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. 
THE RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST DURING REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY 
NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE OVERALL FLOW PROGRESSIVE 
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE AMPLIFICATION OF 
THIS RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO NEAR RECORD 
HIGHS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MORE ON THIS IN THE 
LONG TERM SECTION BELOW.

A PAIR OF POTENT SHORTWAVES RACING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IN A 
130KT H25 JET WILL DIG OUT A FRESH LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 
CLOSED LOW OVER QUEBEC AS WE OPEN THIS PERIOD ON SATURDAY. A 
CORRESPONDING SFC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES 
IN THE PROCESS...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE...THE DAY SHOULD BE 
LARGELY PCPN FREE WITH ONLY SCT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS WITH 
QPF GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE ACTIVITY COULD BE A 
LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (NORTH OF TUG). WILL 
LEAVE LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THAT AREA. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS WITH 50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE 
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SOMEWHAT CHILLY AIR WILL RACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OUR 
FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS 
WILL DROP BELOW ZERO C AND THIS WILL SET UP ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER 
THE LAKES TO GENERATE SOME NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THE 
BULK OF THESE WILL BE EAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE 
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE ABUNDANT. OVER LAKE ERIE...A SERIOUS LACK OF 
MOISTURE ABV 5K FT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LAKE DRIVEN SHOWERS...
ALTHOUGH FAIRLY STRONG CHANNELLED VORTICITY OVER THE REGION COULD 
HELP TO GENERATE SOME SPRINKLES EARLY IN THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL 
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S.

IT WILL BE BRISK AND COOL ACROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY AS WE WILL 
FIND OURSELVES SANDWICHED BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE 
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL 
PRODUCE A VERY COOL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF CANADIAN AIR (ALBEIT 
PACIFIC MODIFIED) OVER OUR REGION WITH MOST AREAS EXPERIENCING A 
FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE 
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE FOUND UNDER THE CORE OF A STRONG UL JET. 
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE TUG FROM CONTINUED 
MESOSCALE LAKE DRIVEN PROCESSES...WHICH BY THE WAY WILL WEAKEN AS 
THE DAY PROGRESSES.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL THEN NOSE NORTH ACROSS OUR 
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ENSURE A FAIR DRY NIGHT ACROSS 
THE REGION...WITH ANY LINGERING NUISANCE LAKE RAIN SHOWERS ENDING 
EAST OF LK ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 30S AND 
LOWER 40S. 

ON MONDAY...BROAD RIDGING WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE THE 
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THE 
ENSUING WARM ADVECTION OVER OUR REGION WILL GENERATE SOME HIGH AND 
MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...BUT A WEALTH OF DRY 
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THE EXPECTATION THAT THE STRONGEST 
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A NICE DRY 
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...SINUSOIDAL LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE 
ACROSS THE COUNTRY DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THIS WILL ENSURE THAT 
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. THE WARMEST DAY 
WILL BE RIGHT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY WHEN A BROAD 
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PUMP ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR 
ACROSS OUR REGION. 

H85 TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO CLIMB TO ARND 12C BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...
AND WHEN FULLY MIXED...THIS WOULD SUPPORT NEAR RECORD MAX TEMPS IN 
THE LOW TO MID 70S. RECORDS FOR TUESDAY INCLUDE BUF 74 IN 1946...
ROC 76 IN 1984...AND WATERTOWN 75 ALSO IN 1984. THERE WILL BE A COLD 
FRONT BEARING DOWN ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THOUGH...SO CLOUDS AND 
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A SCREECHING HALT TO 
THE SOARING TEMPS. THE FRONT IS SOME 3-6 HOURS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS 
GUIDANCE PACKAGES. 

SHOWERS FROM THE FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY AND 
TUESDAY EVENING. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL POUR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT 
LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN 
SET UP THE CHANCE FOR A MINIMAL LAKE RESPONSE WITH SOME SHOWERS EAST 
OF LK ONTARIO.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT 
LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE A POOL OF PACIFICALLY 
MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR WILL GLANCE BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL 
TRANSLATE INTO A PAIR OF SEASONABLY COOL DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. A PATCH OF 
THICKER CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS 
AFTERNOON...AND THE BACK EDGE OF LOWER VFR LEVEL CLOUDS FROM A 
COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND TUG 
HILL REGION AT TIMES. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE MAINLY 
SKC. 

TONIGHT AN AREA OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UPSTREAM OVER MICHIGAN 
WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z. THIS WILL SPREAD A DECK OF 
LOWER CLOUDS INTO THE REGION WITH A MIX OF LOW END VFR AND MVFR 
CIGS. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST AND BREAK UP 
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR. DURING THE AFTERNOON A 
COLD FRONT AND POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION. 
THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS...WITH 
SHOWERS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW SCATTERED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. CIGS WILL 
INITIALLY BE VFR AS THE SHOWERS DEVELOP...BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR OR 
EVEN IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE 
COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. VSBY SHOULD STAY MAINLY VFR 
FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH SHOWERS LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE 
NORTH COUNTRY MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBY IN ANY HEAVIER 
AND MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF 
LAKE ONTARIO WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. 
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF 
THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE 
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD 
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. IN BETWEEN THESE 
TWO SYSTEMS...A MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY 
TODAY AND BRIEFLY INCREASE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO...BEFORE WEAKENING 
AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WHILE IT IS NOT OUT OF 
THE QUESTION THAT THIS COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END 
ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE 
LAKE...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN 
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AREAWIDE. 

OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES 
REGION...AND SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SOLID ROUND OF 
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES...BEGINNING SATURDAY 
MORNING ON LAKE ERIE...AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...JJR





National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy