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Area Forecast Discussion
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653 
FXUS61 KBUF 170245
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1045 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE
OVERNIGHT THEN GRADUALLY DRIFT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES OF
TODAY GIVING WAY TO MILDER WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A QUIET SPELL OF WEATHER TO 
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH JUST PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. 
THE PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE ONGOING ADVECTION OF WARMER 
AIR INTO THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN A RELATIVELY WARMER NIGHT THAN 
LAST NIGHT...NONETHELESS GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS DOWN IN 
THE TEENS...HAVE BUMPED OVERNIGHT TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF 
DEGREES...GOING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S INLAND WITH UPPER 20S 
NEAR THE LAKES.

THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...THOUGH AS THE HIGH 
DRIFTS EAST WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES PICK UP IN 
THE AFTERNOON. THIS DOWNSLOPING FLOW COUPLED WITH ONGOING WARM 
ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TO FLIRT 
WITH THE 60 DEGREE MARK WHILE ELSEWHERE WE CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 
MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR 
WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH FAIR WEATHER BUT CHILLY BELOW FREEZING 
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL 
APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED 
SHORTWAVE NOW FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGE 
SCALE LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS TO ALL 
AREAS...WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE ON 
SATURDAY. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER EAST OF LAKE 
ONTARIO...BUT ELSEWHERE EXPECT FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLE 
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL 
SLOWLY SLIDE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR 
WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF 
OF THE WEEKEND. LATE SUNDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL 
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION. 
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING WITH A CONSENSUS 
BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONTAL 
PASSAGE. 

AFTER THIS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND WASH OUT IN A 
CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW. THERE WILL BE WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN 
THIS...BUT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME EXPECT IT TO BE DRY ON 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR 
TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE 
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT 
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT TO GIVE WAY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO AROUND 
10KT THU MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 10-20KT POSSIBLE BY THE 
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR. 
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THEN 
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TRANQUIL 
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALTHOUGH RIVER LEVELS ON UPSTREAM PORTIONS OF THE BLACK RIVER
CONTINUE TO FALL THIS EVENING...THE CREST ON THE BLACK RIVER HAS
NOT YET REACHED WATERTOWN AND GIVEN RECENT HYDROGRAPH TRENDS ON
THE BLACK RIVER...IT IS NOW EXPECTED THAT THE RIVER WILL CREST
ABOVE MAJOR FLOOD STAGE IN WATERTOWN THURSDAY EVENING. FOR THE
MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS...WHICH ARE AVAILABLE UNDER THE BUFFLSBUF
AND BUFFLWBUF PRODUCTS RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN/WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...LEVAN
HYDROLOGY...WOOD








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