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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 310220
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1020 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE 
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. A LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON 
AND SATURDAY...USHERING IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG 
WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOST OF THE 
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIQUID...ALTHOUGH A FEW WET 
SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND IS THEN 
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING SHOWING A WEALTH OF STRATUS 
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BENEATH AN INCREASING DECK OF HIGH CIRRUS 
LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THERE ARE STILL A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS 
THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN 
THESE AREAS AS WELL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW 
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS APPROACHING OUR REGION YET...SO ANY 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN A WARM FRONT 
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

THE DEVELOPING SURFACE WARM FRONT WITH THIS LOW WILL BE NORTH OF THE 
FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION 
DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN 
LOCKED IN PLACE WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW 
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT MAINLY FOR AREAS 
NEAR LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC 
LIFT OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS THE ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT DEVELOPS 
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SPLITTING SOLUTION...WITH THE MAIN 
VORTICITY MAX DIGGING INTO THE CAROLINAS...LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER 
WEAK / SPLIT FLOW ALOFT. WE WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE 
FORECAST AREA WITH DECENT MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THE WEAK 
SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT 
SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS THE NORTHERN 
STREAM TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD. OUR BEST CHANCE OF MORE NUMEROUS 
SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON 
AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NY. WHILE QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE 
LIGHT DUE TO THE LACK OF WELL-DEFINED FORCING...THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS 
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESS RAINFALL 
TO THE EAST...ESPECIALLY DROPPING OFF EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND 
THE ROCHESTER AREA.

TEMPERATURE VARIANCE WILL BE VERY LOW BETWEEN TONIGHT AND 
FRIDAY...AS CLOUD COVER AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP 
TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT CLOUD COVER AND 
INCREASING PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...TO 
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH DURING THE DAY. THE DIURNAL RANGE 
IN TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE AROUND 10 DEGREES...WITH LOWS TONIGHT 
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID 30S IN THE 
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN 
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID 40S ON THE 
HILLS FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE A WET START TO THE WEEKEND...AT LEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW 
YORK AND PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AS THE AREA WILL BE UNDER 
THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO IN THE 
WAKE OF A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTTING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 
THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. OROGRAPHIC LIFT 
WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE APPROACH OF A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
AND ASSOCIATED LIFT. WHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT...IN THE -2C TO -4C 
RANGE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO ADD LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION 
TO THE MIX...IT WILL NOT LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH TO FACILITATE A 
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW. RATHER...WESTERN NEW YORK CAN EXPECT A 
GENERAL LIGHT RAINFALL THROUGH THE NIGHT. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE 
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY UNDER 
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW...AND AS SUCH ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED 
IN SCOPE AND MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. AS 
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RELATIVELY 
MILD MARITIME AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THAT WILL KEEP LOWS FROM 
DROPPING OUT OF THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH AREAS ALONG THE LAKE 
PLAINS LIKELY STAYING IN THE LOWER 40S.

THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH THE FOCUS OF 
PRECIPITATION SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EAST TO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND 
FINGER LAKES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. FLOW WILL 
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH. 
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PRESENT THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR A LIGHT 
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AS THE COMBINATION OF 
NIGHTFALL AND THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES 
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE FORECAST AIR. HOWEVER THE FLY IN THE 
OINTMENT WILL BE THE DRY AIR ALOFT THAT WILL BE ACCOMPANYING THIS 
COLD PUSH. AS THE AIR IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DRIES OUT...THERE 
IS A POTENTIAL THAT WE COULD SEE ANY UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW 
SHOWERS PETER OUT INTO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR POSSIBLY JUST 
LAKE-INDUCED STRATUS WITH NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL.

ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD FIZZLE OUT SUNDAY MORNING 
AS INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL OVERCOME ANY LAKE 
ENHANCEMENT...THOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO 
GO AROUND ON WHAT WILL OTHERWISE BE A DRY AND CHILLY DAY WHERE 
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE LAKES AND 
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY WILL LIKELY 
STAY LOCKED IN THE UPPER 30S. WE CAN THEN EXPECT ONE MORE NIGHT OF 
FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE NEXT 
WEEK

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A COOL AND SHOWER WEEKEND...WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK 
WILL TRANSITION TO A DRIER AND MORE MILD REGIME AS WE MOVE INTO THE 
NEW WEEK. THIS WILL BE COURTESY OF STEEP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL 
BE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. FLOW BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST 
WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...PUSHING 
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE THE 50 DEGREE MARK MONDAY AND BY TUESDAY 
MANY AREAS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS A 60 DEGREE 
READING OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE TYPICALLY WARMER SPOTS 
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES. ALTHOUGH THE 
WARM ADVECTION WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUD 
COVER...THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO GO 
AROUND MONDAY AND TUESDAY COURTESY OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.

AFTER A DRY START TO THE WEEK...WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CREEP BACK INTO 
THE FORECAST AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE 
LOW LIFT FROM WESTERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. AS THE LOW 
TRACKS INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC...IT WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT 
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS 
ARE INDICATING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT 
LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO 
WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE FAVORABLE FRONTOGENETIC AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING 
AND RETURN FLOW SUPPLYING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND 
LOWER LAKES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW SHOW SOME DIVERGENCE IN SOLUTIONS 
REGARDING THE SPEED OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. 
THE GFS BRINGS A FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS NEW YORK THAT SLOWS UP THE 
FRONT WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SPEEDS THE FRONT THROUGH WITH A 
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES...WILL JUST COVER THE PERIOD WITH LOW 
CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING AND KEEP TEMERPATURES RIGHT AROUND 
CLIMATOLOGY AS THE REGION WILL LIKELY BE AWASH IN A MILD PACIFIC 
AIRMASS THAT WILL BE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE 
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A DECK OF CLOUDS IN THE 
3500-5000 FOOT RANGE. OVERNIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE 
SOMEWHAT AS AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE LOWER LAKES. 
THE ADDED WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING 
SHOULD SUPPORT CIGS LOWERING INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN MANY AREAS. A 
FEW LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP CLOSE TO LAKE ERIE AND 
ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO WEAK WARM ADVECTION...BUT VSBY 
SHOULD REMAIN VFR GIVEN THE LIGHT AND SCATTERED NATURE OF THIS 
ACTIVITY. 

ON FRIDAY A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY MAINLY NEAR LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. MVFR 
CIGS EARLY SHOULD TREND TO MAINLY VFR BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE 
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH MVFR LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DURING 
THE AFTERNOON WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST 
ONTARIO PROVINCE AND LAKE ERIE. CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT FROM AN 
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD PRODUCE MORE NUMEROUS RAIN 
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NY. EXPECT CIGS TO DROP 
TO MVFR AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS...WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE ACROSS 
HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARD EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH MVFR DETERIORATING TO IFR.
SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. 
SUNDAY...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR WITH SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CHOPPY WAVE ACTION ON THE EAST 
HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS BOTH LAKE ERIE 
AND LAKE ONTARIO...BEFORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP 
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH RELATIVELY FLAT WAVE ACTION.

STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE EARLY SATURDAY 
MORNING...WITH WINDS OVER 20KTS COMMON ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WAVE 
HEIGHTS SHOULD INCREASE TO 3 TO 6 FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN 
LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THUS HAVE ISSUED A SMALL 
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY 
         FOR LOZ030-042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK





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