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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBUF 130833
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
433 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND 
COASTLINE TODAY...WHILE PROVIDING WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK 
WITH DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN 
PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND WHILE MOSTLY 
BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO OUR REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH 
THIS POSSIBLY ENDING AS A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK 
WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE ATLANTIC 
COASTLINE. LINGERING DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
SLOWLY DEPARTING HIGH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED FAIR AND DRY WEATHER 
FOR OUR AREA...ALONG WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD 
COVER. THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE 
EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING AS AN INITIAL 
SURGE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PUSHES ACROSS THAT 
REGION...WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING 
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON. IN BETWEEN THESE 
TWO AREAS OF CLOUDS...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...A MILDER 
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING 
HIGH WILL HELP BOOST READINGS BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS TODAY... 
WITH AFTERNOON MAXES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS 
THE NORTH COUNTRY...TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S FROM THE WESTERN 
FINGER LAKES WESTWARD. 

TONIGHT...COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT 
LAKES TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD. AS 
A CONSEQUENCE...MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE 
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE END RESULT OF ALL 
THIS WILL BE INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS OVER TIME...ALONG WITH 
THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHWEST 
TO NORTHEAST. IN TERMS OF PTYPE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND STATISTICAL 
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST 
PLAIN RAIN ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA...SAVE FOR THE SAINT 
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE A 
LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET LATER ON TONIGHT. 
THIS STATED...CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING PRECIP OCCURRING IN THIS LATTER 
AREA REMAINS FAIRLY LOW GIVEN VERY MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILES...AND 
AS SUCH HAVE ELECTED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER 
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPS...NIGHTTIME LOWS SHOULD RANGE 
FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...TO THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE 
RANGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY LOW IMPACT WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS OUR REGION DURING 
THIS PERIOD...AS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN UNDER THE CONTROL 
OF A LOW AMPLITUDE PACIFIC BASED FLOW. THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT 
AMPLITUDE IN THE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE INTO WEAK...QUICK MOVING 
SYSTEMS WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY AVERAGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES 
OF NORMAL. THIS IS A GOOD THING...ESPECIALLY WHEN TAKING INTO 
ACCOUNT THE PERSISTENCE OF A DEEP LATE SEASON SNOWPACK FOUND OVER 
MUCH OF THE REGION.

AN UNIMPRESSIVE...INDISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE OVER ALBERTA THIS MORNING 
WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND UPPER GREAT 
LAKES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE INTENSIFYING INTO A ROBUST 
DISTURBANCE. THIS STRENGTHENING NORTHERN BRANCH FEATURE WILL 
ENERGIZE A BROAD INVERTED SFC TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...
EVENTUALLY LEADING TO A BROAD SFC LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON 
SATURDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO TAP SOME OF THE MOISTURE 
FROM A WEAK SRN STREAM WAVE...THE BULK OF THE DEEP GULF MOISTURE 
(DEFINED BY PWAT VALUES >1") WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. THAT BEING 
SAID...THE DIGGING NRN BRANCH SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY 
DYNAMIC SYSTEM OVER OUR REGION. THE 1.5 PV SFC IS FORECAST TO BE 
DRIVEN AS LOW AS 700MB WHILE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...STRONG H925-700 
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL ALL BOIL DOWN TO 
SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS...ALBEIT IT WITH QPF UNDER A 
QUARTER INCH IN MOST AREAS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

THE RAINFALL WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S...AND MAYBE 
MORE IMPORTANTLY...DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TO CONTINUE TO 
MELT AWAY A DEEPER THAN NORMAL SNOWPACK. A FAIR AMOUNT OF RUNOFF 
FROM THIS SCENARIO WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RISES 
ON AREA TRIBUTARIES...BUT GIVEN THE LOW QPF AND SUB-50F TEMP 
FORECAST...THE RISK FOR FLOODING REMAINS LOWER THAN ONE MIGHT 
OTHERWISE EXPECT. THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR FLOODING WILL BE IN THE 
BUFFALO AREA CREEKS...WHERE THE RISING WATER LEVELS COULD 
POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME ICE JAM RELATED FLOODING. ALSO...IF 
STEADIER RAINS OVER PENNSYLVANIA ARE FORECAST TO PUSH FURTHER 
NORTH...LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO CONSIDER A FLOOD WATCH FOR 
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THIS LATTER SCENARIO IS PROBABLY A 
LONG SHOT THOUGH...AS ALL OF THE GUIDANCE PACKAGES ARE KEEPING THE 
WORRISOME RAINFALL AMOUNTS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. REFER TO THE 
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL HYDRO DETAILS.

A NEWLY FORMED CLOSED LOW BROUGHT ABOUT BY THE VIGOROUS DIGGING 
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE 
WILL NOT BE AS DEEP A MOISTURE FIELD OVER OUR REGION AS THE PREVIOUS 
12 HOURS...THE PASSING OF THE DYNAMIC CLOSED LOW AND DEEP CYCLONIC 
COLD ADVECTIVE FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT RESIDUAL RAIN SHOWERS 
THAT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMS 
WILL BE UNDER AN INCH...EXCEPT EAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE INCH OR TWO 
AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.

ON SUNDAY...A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE BULK OF 
THE DAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER 
THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES EAST TO THE NORTH 
COUNTRY. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND 
COAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL 
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE APPROACHING RIDGE WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME WORKING ITS WAY BELOW A 
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED ARND 5K FT THOUGH...SO STUBBORN CLOUD 
COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. IT WILL BE A LITTLE 
CHILLY ON SUNDAY...AS H85 TEMPS AVG -4C WILL KEEP AFTERNOON MAX 
TEMPS IN THE 30S.

WEAK RIDGING WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS 
WILL HELP TO FINALLY CLEAR OUT SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...
A WEALTH OF CIRRUS WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AT 
THE SAME TIME. IN ANY CASE...WE CAN EXPECT UNEVENTFUL WEATHER.

A BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL THEN PASS TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY 
WHILE A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE UPPER GREAT 
LAKES. THE GFS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAST WITH BRINGING THIS FRONT INTO 
OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND 
ITS NOTABLY WARMER SOLUTION. IF THIS LATTER SOLUTION WORKS OUT...
SOME AREAS COULD EASILY PUSH INTO THE LOWER 50S MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG RUN TO RUN AND ENSEMBLE TO ENSEMBLE (ECMWF/GEFS) 
CONSISTENCIES DEPICT A BROAD RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA 
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES 
OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE BULK 
OF WHAT PRECIPITATION DOES FALL WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH THE COURSE OF TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH JUST 
SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS 
EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.

TONIGHT...COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT 
LAKES TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD. AS 
A CONSEQUENCE...MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE 
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE END RESULT OF THIS 
WILL BE INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUDS WITH CIGS LOWERING TO THE LOW 
VFR/MVFR RANGE OVER TIME...AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING 
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER TIME. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT THE 
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TO BE FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN...WITH THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR DUE TO 
THE EXPECTED LIGHT NATURE OF THE PRECIP AND A GENERAL SOUTHERLY LOW 
LEVEL FLOW.

IN TERMS OF PTYPE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 
THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST PLAIN RAIN ACROSS 
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA...SAVE FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY 
AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE A LIGHT WINTRY MIX 
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET LATER ON TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK... 
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN MOSTLY PLAIN RAIN...WITH A WINTRY MIX 
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF 
THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY. 
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WEST 
OF KROC...AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MORE LIKELY FURTHER EAST. 
SUNDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. 
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND 
ATTENDANT IFR/MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND 
COASTLINE TODAY...WHILE MAINTAINING RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS 
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN 
PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...WITH FAIRLY 
MINIMAL WINDS AND WAVES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY GIVING WAY TO A 
MODERATELY BRISK WESTERLY FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MELT GRADUALLY THROUGH TODAY WITH NO FLOODING 
EXPECTED. BASED ON RECENT SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT (SWE) 
MEASUREMENTS...THIS WEEK'S GRADUAL THAW HAS RESULTED IN BETWEEN A 
HALF INCH AND AN INCH OF SWE RUNNING OFF OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. 
THIS HAS CAUSED CREEKS TO OPEN UP A BIT...THOUGH THERE IS STILL 
SIGNIFICANT ICE IN PLACE THE HEADWATERS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WARMER...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO RISE
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE BASINS OF THE BUFFALO
CREEKS...AS WELL AS THOSE OF THE ALLEGHENY AND GENESEE RIVERS. THE 
ABOVE SAID...THE WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY ARE STILL NOT 
EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING. ONE GUIDE USED TO DETERMINE WHEN ICE 
WILL BREAK UP IS THAWING DEGREE HOURS (TDH)...WHICH IS THE SUM OF 
THE ABOVE FREEZING PORTION OF TEMPERATURES EACH HOUR. USING THIS 
TECHNIQUE...TDH VALUES SHOULD EASILY REMAIN BELOW 300 THROUGH 
TONIGHT...EVEN FOR THE WARMEST BASINS. IT TYPICALLY TAKES 300 TO 500 
TDH FOR ICE TO BREAK UP...AND IT MAY EVEN TAKE A BIT MORE THAN THAT 
IN THIS CASE GIVEN THE THICK ICE THAT IS LIKELY IN PLACE. THIS 
SAID...TODAY'S WARM TEMPERATURES WILL HELP TO FURTHER RIPEN THE SNOW 
PACK AND INCREASE FLOWS.

AFTER THAT...THE FLOOD RISK SHOULD INCREASE A BIT THIS WEEKEND WHEN 
SOME LIGHT RAINFALL AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE WARMER 
TEMPERATURES AND HELP TO INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF RUNOFF. THIS
STATED...THE 00Z/13 GUIDANCE SUITE HAS GENERALLY TRENDED LIGHTER
WITH RESPECT TO THE QPF FORECAST AND NOW GENERALLY KEEPS TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE THAN THAT POSSIBLE
NEAR THE PENNSYLVANIA LINE. IF REALIZED...SUCH LIGHTER POTENTIAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A LOWERED OVERALL RISK OF
FLOODING.

MMEFS ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGESTS THAT IT WOULD PROBABLY REQUIRE THE 
WARMEST AND WETTEST MODEL SOLUTIONS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS TO CAUSE 
FLOODING...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THIS IN THE BUFFALO CREEKS 
AND ALLEGHENY BASINS. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE FOR ICE JAMS IN 
THE BUFFALO CREEKS...BUT IT PROBABLY WILL TAKE TEMPERATURES ON THE 
WARM SIDE OF CURRENT GUIDANCE. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE 
MONITORED.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL/JJR/TMA







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