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Hydrologic Outlook
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FGUS71 KBUF 040348
ESFBUF
NYC003-009-011-013-029-037-045-049-051-055-063-069-073-075-117-
121-180400-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1148 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014


...ABOVE NORMAL FLOOD RISK FOR THE BLACK RIVER BASIN THROUGH         
   MID-APRIL...

THIS IS THE SEVENTH WINTER / SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK OF THE 
2014 SEASON. FLOOD OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED EVERY TWO WEEKS INTO 
EARLY SPRING TO SUMMARIZE BASIN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND 
TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON 
CURRENT AND FORECAST HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS. THIS INCLUDES 
SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...CREEK AND RIVER LEVELS AND 
THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVER ON THEM...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED 
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS SUMMARY...
TEMPERATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF 
OF MARCH...HOWEVER THIS HAS STILL ALLOWED FOR SOME SNOW MELT. A 
SNOWSTORM ON THE 29TH AND 30TH BROUGHT ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW WATER 
EQUIVALENT (SWE) SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SINCE THEN HAS MELTED MOST OF THIS. AS A RESULT...THERE
IS ONLY PATCHY SNOW PACK SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...MAINLY CONFINED
TO WOODLANDS. DUE TO THIS RECENT SNOWMELT...CREEKS AND RIVER FLOWS
ARE ABOVE NORMAL.

IT IS A DIFFERENT STORY IN THE BLACK RIVER BASIN...WHERE A DEEP SNOW 
PACK WAS BUILT THROUGH THE WINTER MONTHS. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
RAIN HAS MELTED SOME OF THE SNOW...BUT THERE IS STILL A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK IN PLACE. SWE IN THE BLACK RIVER BASIN ARE
NEARLY DOUBLE WHAT THEY NORMALLY ARE FOR THIS DATE. THERE ARE ALSO
SOME MINOR ICE JAMS ON THE BLACK RIVER...WITH THICK ICE STILL IN
PLACE ON SOME OF THE CREEKS IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A SUMMARY OF CONDITIONS AND OUTLOOK BY BASIN AS
OF THURSDAY MORNING ON APRIL 3RD:

...BUFFALO AREA CREEKS / LAKE ERIE BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........PATCHY...LESS THAN 2 INCHES.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....LESS THAN AN INCH.
.CREEK FLOWS.........ABOVE NORMAL.
.CREEK ICE...........NONE.
.GROUND FROST........12 TO 18 INCHES DEEP...TOP THAWED.
.GROUND STATE........SATURATED/FROZEN BENEATH.

...GENESEE RIVER BASIN / FINGER LAKES / ROCHESTER AREA...
.SNOW COVER..........PATCHY...LESS THAN 2 INCHES.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....LESS THAN AN INCH.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...ABOVE NORMAL.
.RIVER/CREEK ICE.....NONE.
.GROUND FROST........12 TO 18 INCHES DEEP...TOP THAWED.
.GROUND STATE........SATURATED/FROZEN BENEATH.

...ALLEGHENY RIVER BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........PATCHY...LESS THAN 2 INCHES.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....LESS THAN AN INCH.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...NEAR NORMAL.
.RIVER CREEK ICE.....NONE.
.GROUND FROST........12 TO 18 INCHES...TOP THAWED.
.GROUND STATE........SATURATED/FROZEN BENEATH.

...BLACK RIVER BASINS / TUG HILL...
.SNOW COVER..........AROUND A FOOT...1 TO 3 FEET ON THE TUG HILL.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....2 TO 6 INCHES...6 TO 12 INCHES ON THE TUG HILL.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...NEAR NORMAL.
.RIVER/CREEK ICE.....MOSTLY THICK ICE...SOME ICE MOVEMENT AND JAMS.
.GROUND FROST........ABOUT 24 INCHES.
.GROUND STATE........FROZEN.

...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...
A FAIRLY WET PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR THE NEXT WEEK...WITH A COUPLE 
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN. A SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE
REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A HALF
INCH OR LESS AND TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM MODESTLY IN THE BLACK
RIVER BASIN. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT LOOKS TO BE MONDAY...WHEN
AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE
KEY...AND IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN IF IT WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY IN
THE BLACK RIVER BASIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. AFTER THIS TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND THROUGH MID APRIL...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED NEAR OUR REGION AS A ZONAL FLOW
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALOFT. FOR THE MOST PART...WESTERN NEW
YORK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY.
HOWEVER...THIS FRONT WILL MEANDER AS SYSTEMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND BRING A CHANCE FOR PERIODIC RAINS. THIS PATTERN IS
LESS LIKELY TO PRODUCE A POWERFUL SYSTEM...BUT COULD BRING
STEADY RAINS IF THE BOUNDARY HAPPENS TO STALL ACROSS OUR REGION.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...
THE MAIN RISK FOR FLOODING WILL BE IN THE BLACK RIVER BASIN WHERE AN 
UNUSUALLY DEEP SNOWPACK IS IN PLACE. ELSEWHERE...THERE IS VERY
LITTLE SNOW LEFT. ALTHOUGH A HEAVY RAIN EVENT COULD CAUSE
FLOODING...THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY NOT
BE CONDUCIVE TO THIS EVEN THOUGH THE POTENTIAL CANNOT COMPLETELY
BE RULED OUT.

THERE IS AN ABOVE NORMAL FLOOD RISK IN THE BLACK RIVER BASIN.
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKS THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
MODERATE RAINS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND GIVEN THE ABOVE
NORMAL SNOW PACK THIS COULD RESULT IN FLOODING. THERE IS ALSO SOME
ICE ON SOME OF THE RIVERS AND CREEKS WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED ICE
JAMS. THE LATEST CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKS.

...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

REAL TIME RIVER INFORMATION AND PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS FOR
SPECIFIC LOCATIONS ALONG RIVERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK CAN BE
FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF BY CLICKING ON THE
RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS LINK ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE PAGE. SINCE
CONDITIONS CAN CHANGE PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD
WARNINGS...WATCHES...AND STATEMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY APRIL 17TH IF ANY SNOWPACK
REMAINS. THANKS TO ALL THE OBSERVERS AND AGENCIES WHICH HAVE
HELPED GATHER DATA IN SUPPORT OF THIS OUTLOOK.

$$

APFFEL





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