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Hydrologic Outlook
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000
FGUS71 KBUF 081955
ESFBUF
NYC003-009-011-013-029-037-045-049-051-055-063-069-073-075-117-
121-222000-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
255 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015


...BELOW NORMAL FLOOD RISK THROUGH JANUARY 22ND...

THIS IS THE FIRST WINTER / SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK OF THE
2015 SEASON. FLOOD OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED EVERY TWO WEEKS INTO
EARLY SPRING TO SUMMARIZE BASIN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND
TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON
CURRENT AND FORECAST HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS. THIS INCLUDES
SNOW COVER AND WATER EQUIVALENT...CREEK AND RIVER LEVELS AND THE
AMOUNT OF ICE COVER ON THEM...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION
OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS SUMMARY...

TEMPERATURES AVERAGED ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF DECEMBER WHICH LEAD
TO LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW IN MOST
AREAS. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY WARM TEMPERATURES IN EARLY JANUARY AND
ABOUT AN INCH OF RAIN MELTED MOST OF THE SNOWPACK AND WASHED OUT
ICE ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND THE ALLEGHENY AND GENESEE RIVERS
THROUGH JANUARY 5TH. THIS LARGELY LEFT THESE BASINS WITH A CLEAN
SLATE.

SINCE THEN...BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MOVED IN WITH PERSISTENT
LAKE SNOWS OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THIS HAS REESTABLISHED SOME
OF THE SNOW PACK IN THESE BASINS...WITH RIVER AND CREEK ICE
REFORMING RAPIDLY.

IN THE BLACK RIVER BASIN...SOME SNOW AND ICE LASTED THROUGH THE
EARLY JANUARY WARM UP. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WAS BELOW NORMAL IN
DECEMBER...AND THE STEADIEST SNOWS TENDED TO FOCUS ON AREAS IN
SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY WHICH RUN DIRECTLY INTO LAKE ONTARIO. SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS HAS ADDED TO THIS OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS
WHICH HAS BROUGHT SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES UP TO
AROUND 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THE DATE.

THE FOLLOWING IS A SUMMARY OF CONDITIONS AND OUTLOOK BY BASIN AS
OF THURSDAY MORNING ON JANUARY 8TH:

...BUFFALO AREA CREEKS / LAKE ERIE BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........5 TO 10 INCHES.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....AROUND AN INCH.
.CREEK FLOWS.........MOSTLY FROZEN.
.CREEK ICE...........THIN TO MODERATE...ICE WASHED OUT ON JAN 5TH
BUT REFORMED FAST IN VERY COLD WEATHER.
.GROUND FROST........6 INCHES.
.GROUND STATE........FROZEN.

...GENESEE RIVER BASIN / FINGER LAKES / ROCHESTER AREA...
.SNOW COVER..........1 TO 4 INCHES.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....LESS THAN AN INCH.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...NEAR NORMAL.
.RIVER/CREEK ICE.....THIN.
.GROUND FROST........6 INCHES.
.GROUND STATE........FROZEN.

...ALLEGHENY RIVER BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........4 TO 8 INCHES.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....AROUND AN INCH.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...ABOVE NORMAL.
.RIVER CREEK ICE.....THIN TO MODERATE IN HEADWATERS.
.GROUND FROST........6 TO 12 INCHES.
.GROUND STATE........FROZEN.

...BLACK RIVER BASINS / TUG HILL...
.SNOW COVER..........6 TO 18 INCHES.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....1 TO 3 INCHES.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...ABOVE NORMAL.
.RIVER/CREEK ICE.....MODERATE IN HEADWATERS.
.GROUND FROST........12 TO 18 INCHES.
.GROUND STATE........FROZEN.

...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...
FOR THE NEXT WEEK...EXPECT COLD TEMPERATURES AND SIGNIFICANT LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS WILL WILL ADD TO THE SNOWPACK AND THICKEN ICE THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS MAY BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO RAISE WATER
EQUIVALENT VALUES AND ICE TO NEAR NORMAL. AFTER THIS...MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RATHER BENIGN PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED
BY DRY WEATHER AND COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT ANY SNOWMELT WOULD BE UNLIKELY.

LOOKING FROM LATE NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE 22ND...MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH SEASONABLE TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AT THIS TIME FRAME IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF
THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT WARM TRACKING SYSTEM...BUT THE ZONAL
PATTERN WOULD TEND NOT TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THIS.
INSTEAD...FREQUENT CLIPPER SYSTEMS ARE LIKELY TO BRING PERIODIC
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW EVENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH WILL RESULT IN
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION WITHOUT A MAJOR RAIN EVENT.
FORECAST UNCERTAINLY INCREASES WITH TIME...SO THERE IS STILL A
SMALL CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...
THERE IS BELOW NORMAL FLOOD RISK FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS THROUGH
JANUARY 22ND. CURRENT SNOWPACK AND ICE IS BELOW NORMAL AND
ALTHOUGH SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE THIS...THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS NOT LIKELY TO PRODUCE A WARM TRACKING
SYSTEM TO THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...WITH MOST PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO FALL
AS SNOW. HOWEVER IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT ALTHOUGH THE
PATTERN IS NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT ONE SYSTEM WILL TAKE A WARM TRACK DURING THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE TIME PERIOD.

...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

REAL TIME RIVER INFORMATION AND PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS FOR
SPECIFIC LOCATIONS ALONG RIVERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK CAN BE
FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF BY CLICKING ON THE
RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS LINK ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE PAGE. SINCE
CONDITIONS CAN CHANGE PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD
WARNINGS...WATCHES...AND STATEMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON JANUARY 22ND. THANKS TO ALL THE
OBSERVERS AND AGENCIES WHICH HAVE HELPED GATHER DATA IN SUPPORT OF
THIS OUTLOOK.


$$

APFFEL




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