000
FGUS71 KBUF 071255
ESFBUF
NYC003-009-011-013-029-037-045-049-051-055-063-069-073-075-117-
121-211300-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
755 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...BELOW NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH MID TO LATE FEBRUARY...

THIS IS THE THIRD WINTER / SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK OF THE
2012 SEASON. FLOOD OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED EVERY TWO WEEKS INTO
EARLY SPRING TO SUMMARIZE BASIN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND
TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON
CURRENT AND FORECAST HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS. THIS INCLUDES
SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...CREEK AND RIVER LEVELS AND
THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVER ON THEM...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS SUMMARY...

A LATE JANUARY THAW MELTED A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE
DEVELOPING SNOW PACK AND RIVER ICE. TEMPERATURES ROSE INTO THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND THIS COUPLED WITH RAINFALL MELTED
THE SNOW PACK IN THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND IN THE GENESEE AND
ALLEGHENY RIVER BASINS. DEEPER SNOW PACK IN THE BLACK RIVER BASIN
MAINTAINED...BUT A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THIS MELTED AS WELL.
THIS CAUSED WITHIN BANK CREEK AND RIVER RISES...WHICH CLEARED OUT
MUCH OF THE DEVELOPING ICE PACK.

COLDER AIR BUILT IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE FIRST WEEK IN
FEBRUARY. THIS BROUGHT LAKE SNOWS WHICH STARTED TO RE-ESTABLISH THE
SNOW PACK. HOWEVER...BOTH SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT ARE
RUNNING BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. ROUGHLY SPEAKING...WATER
EQUIVALENTS ARE ABOUT A HALF OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
WARM UP ALSO WASHED OUT MUCH OF THE RIVER AND CREEK ICE WHICH
DEVELOPED IN JANUARY. EVEN AFTER A WEEK OF COLD WEATHER...THERE IS
ONLY THIN ICE ON MOST WATERWAYS. WHILE THERE ARE NO SPECIFIC
REPORTS SO FAR...IT IS POSSIBLE THERE MAY BE SOME ICE JAMS FROZEN
IN PLACE ON SOME OF BLACK RIVER TRIBUTARIES. OUTSIDE OF
THIS POSSIBLE FACTOR...CURRENT CONDITIONS POINT TOWARD A BELOW
NORMAL FLOOD THREAT.

THE FOLLOWING IS A SUMMARY OF CONDITIONS AND OUTLOOK BY BASIN AS
OF THURSDAY MORNING ON FEBRUARY 7TH:

...BUFFALO AREA CREEKS / LAKE ERIE BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........3 TO 9 INCHES.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....0.5 TO 2 INCHES.
.CREEK FLOWS.........NEAR NORMAL.
.CREEK ICE...........THIN.
.GROUND FROST........6 INCHES. 
.GROUND STATE........FROZEN.

...GENESEE RIVER BASIN / FINGER LAKES / ROCHESTER AREA...
.SNOW COVER..........2 TO 6 INCHES.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....AN INCH OR LESS.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...NEAR NORMAL.
.RIVER/CREEK ICE.....THIN.
.GROUND FROST........6 INCHES.
.GROUND STATE........FROZEN.

...ALLEGHENY RIVER BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........4 TO 12 INCHES.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....1 TO 2 INCHES.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...NEAR NORMAL.
.RIVER CREEK ICE.....THIN.
.GROUND FROST........6 TO 12 INCHES.
.GROUND STATE........FROZEN.

...BLACK RIVER BASINS / TUG HILL...
.SNOW COVER..........4 TO 12 INCHES...12 TO 24 INCHES ON TUG HILL.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....AROUND AN INCH...2 TO 3 INCHES TUG HILL.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...ABOVE NORMAL.
.RIVER/CREEK ICE.....THIN TO MODERATE.
.GROUND FROST........12 TO 18 INCHES.
.GROUND STATE........FROZEN.

...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

A WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO ADD TO OUR SNOWPACK THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH THIS LIKELY TO ADD AN INCH OR SO OF WATER
EQUIVALENT TO THE REGION. AFTER THIS...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED...WITH ONLY WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS LIKELY THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON SNOW DEPTHS...WITH A
MINIMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

FOR MID TO LATE FEBRUARY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL...WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT SPECIFICS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME FRAME. OVERALL...THE FORECAST PATTERN
IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP OR HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS
PATTERN IS LIKELY TO ADD TO EXISTING SNOW PACK AND RIVER AND
CREEK ICE.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

OVERALL...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID
TO LATE FEBRUARY. BOTH SNOWPACK AND RIVER ICE IS BELOW
NORMAL...AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING NO INDICATION OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT EVENTS ON THE HORIZON. AS IS USUALLY THE
CASE...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WITH TIME...SO THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP WHICH COULD CAUSE FLOODING.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE REGIME THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...THE CHANCE FOR
THIS HAPPENING IS BELOW NORMAL.

...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

REAL TIME RIVER INFORMATION AND PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS FOR
SPECIFIC LOCATIONS ALONG RIVERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK CAN BE
FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF BY CLICKING ON THE
RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS LINK ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE PAGE. SINCE
CONDITIONS CAN CHANGE PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD
WARNINGS...WATCHES...AND STATEMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THURSDAY
FEBRUARY 21ST. THANKS TO ALL THE OBSERVERS AND AGENCIES WHICH HAVE
HELPED GATHER DATA IN SUPPORT OF THIS OUTLOOK.

$$

APFFEL