000
FGUS71 KBUF 100220
ESFBUF
NYC003-009-011-013-029-037-045-049-051-055-063-069-073-075-117-
121-240230-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
920 PM EST WED JAN 9 2013

...NEAR NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
...BELOW NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL JANUARY 15TH THROUGH JANUARY 24TH...

THIS IS THE FIRST WINTER / SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK OF THE
2012 SEASON. FLOOD OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED EVERY TWO WEEKS INTO
EARLY SPRING TO SUMMARIZE BASIN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND
TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON
CURRENT AND FORECAST HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS. THIS INCLUDES
SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...CREEK AND RIVER LEVELS AND
THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVER ON THEM...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS SUMMARY...

THE WINTER SEASON GOT OFF TO A SLOW START...WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF DECEMBER. THIS CHANGED LATE IN THE
MONTH...AS A SIGNIFICANT STORM BROUGHT AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW TO
MOST OF THE REGION. THEN A BIT MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNED
WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...ESPECIALLY ON THE TUG HILL.

FOR MOST OF THE BASINS IN WESTERN NEW YORK...WATER EQUIVALENT IS NEAR
OR BELOW NORMAL. THE LATE START...AND LIMITED SNOW OFF LAKE ERIE
HAS LIMITED SNOW PACK IN THIS REGION. IT IS A DIFFERENT STORY IN
THE BLACK RIVER BASIN AND ON THE TUG HILL...WHERE WATER
EQUIVALENTS ARE ABOVE NORMAL...ROUGHLY 150 PERCENT OF A NORMAL
VALUE FOR THIS DATE.

EVEN WHEN TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PAST TWO
WEEKS...THERE HAS YET TO BE REAL COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS...WITH
BUFFALO YET TO COOL BELOW THE UPPER TEENS. THIS HAS LIMITED ICE
DEVELOPMENT ON CREEKS AND RIVERS...WITH ICE IS BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE REGION.

THE FOLLOWING IS A SUMMARY OF CONDITIONS AND OUTLOOK BY BASIN AS
OF WEDNESDAY MORNING ON JANUARY 9TH:

...BUFFALO AREA CREEKS / LAKE ERIE BASIN...
.SNOW COVER...3 TO 9 INCHES.
.WATER EQUIVALENT...1 TO 2 INCHES.
.CREEK FLOWS...NEAR NORMAL.
.CREEK ICE.....THIN. 
.GROUND FROST..3 INCHES. 
.GROUND STATE..SATURATED.

...GENESEE RIVER BASIN / FINGER LAKES / ROCHESTER AREA...
.SNOW COVER...3 TO 9 INCHES...A FOOT IN THE UPPER GENESEE BASIN.
.WATER EQUIVALENT...1 TO 2 INCHES.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...NEAR NORMAL.
.RIVER/CREEK ICE.....THIN.
.GROUND FROST........3 INCHES.
.GROUND STATE........SATURATED.

...ALLEGHENY RIVER BASIN...
.SNOW COVER.........6 TO 12 INCHES.
.WATER EQUIVALENT...AROUND 2 INCHES.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...NEAR NORMAL.
.RIVER CREEK ICE.....THIN.
.GROUND FROST........3 TO 6 INCHES.
.GROUND STATE........SATURATED.

...BLACK RIVER BASINS / TUG HILL...
.SNOW COVER..........6 TO 12 INCHES...18 TO 24 INCHES ON TUG HILL.
.WATER EQUIVALENT...1 TO 2 INCHES...3 TO 5 INCHES TUG HILL.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...NEAR NORMAL.
.RIVER/CREEK ICE.....SOME.
.GROUND FROST........6 TO 12 INCHES.
.GROUND STATE........SATURATED.

...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

THROUGH JANUARY 14TH...THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP...STARTING
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND ENDING
WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH
THIS...WILL BE A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WHICH BRING SOME RAIN.
IN EACH CASE...ONLY MODEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED...WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY TO BE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF INCH FROM
EACH SYSTEM. HOWEVER...A MINORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
GREATER AMOUNTS WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY.

AFTER THIS...A BENIGN PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER. THEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS ON THE WAY FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND LASTING THROUGH JANUARY 24TH. MODEL
CONSENSUS AND DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS PROVIDE GOOD
CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER PATTERN
DURING THIS PERIOD. EXPECT MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH ANY PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO FALL AS SNOW.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THEN
IS BELOW NORMAL JANUARY 15TH THROUGH JANUARY 24TH.

IT APPEARS THE ONLY REAL THREAT FOR FLOODING IN THE PERIOD WILL
COME EARLY...MAINLY DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT JANUARY THAW WHICH IS
FORECAST TO PEAK THIS WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS
HIGH...WITH NEARLY ALL THE SNOW LIKELY TO MELT IN THE BUFFALO
CREEKS AND IN THE ALLEGHENY AND GENESEE RIVER BASINS. SNOW SHOULD
BE A BIT MORE STEADFAST ON THE TUG HILL...WHERE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS ARE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL. THE INITIAL SYSTEM FRIDAY
WILL PROBABLY RIPEN THE SNOWPACK A BIT...WITH THE THE GREATEST
FLOOD POTENTIAL COMING WITH A SYSTEM FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY.
WITH THIS...THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FAIRLY LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS...WHICH WOULD PROBABLY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD
APPROACH AN INCH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS COMBINED WITH ANTICIPATED
SNOW MELT COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN SOME RIVERS AND CREEKS.
MMEFS ENSEMBLE RIVER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME OF
OUR FORECAST POINTS TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE. THIS WILL BEAR
SOME WATCHING...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.

BECAUSE ICE IS SO THIN ON MOST OF THE CREEKS...THERE IS A MINIMAL
RISK FOR ICE JAMS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS. BECAUSE OF THE GRADUAL
WARM UP...EXPECT THIN ICE IN THE HEADWATERS TO LARGELY MELT BEFORE
JAMMING BECOMES AN ISSUE. CREEK ICE IS THICKER IN THE BLACK RIVER
BASIN...BUT THE BASIN TENDS TO BE LESS PRONE TO ICE JAMS.

AFTER THIS...MUCH OF THE SNOWPACK SHOULD BE CLEARED OUT BY NEXT
WEEK. THEN WITH A DRY PATTERN FOLLOWED BY A COLD PATTERN...THERE
IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY RIVER OR GREEK FLOODING IN THE JANUARY
15TH TO 24TH TIMEFRAME. THE ONLY RISK WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST...WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN MODEL CONSISTENCY.

...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

REAL TIME RIVER INFORMATION AND PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS FOR
SPECIFIC LOCATIONS ALONG RIVERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK CAN BE
FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF BY CLICKING ON THE
RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS LINK ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE PAGE. SINCE
CONDITIONS CAN CHANGE PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD
WARNINGS...WATCHES...AND STATEMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THURSDAY
JANUARY 24TH. THANKS TO ALL THE OBSERVERS AND AGENCIES WHICH HAVE
HELPED GATHER DATA IN SUPPORT OF THIS OUTLOOK.

$$

APFFEL