000
FGUS71 KBUF 160208
ESFBUF
NYC003-009-011-013-029-037-045-049-051-055-063-069-073-075-117-
121-300215-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1008 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...THERE IS BELOW NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN NEW YORK
THROUGH THE END OF MARCH...

THIS IS THE SIXTH WINTER / SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK OF THE
2012 SEASON. FLOOD OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED EVERY TWO WEEKS INTO
EARLY SPRING TO SUMMARIZE BASIN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND
TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON
CURRENT AND FORECAST HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS. THIS INCLUDES
SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...CREEK AND RIVER LEVELS AND
THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVER ON THEM...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS SUMMARY...

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WINTER HAS LEFT THE
GROUND BARE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF WESTERN NEW YORK. THE BUFFALO
CREEKS...AND THE ALLEGHENY AND GENESEE BASINS ARE ALL VOID OF SNOW
AND ICE.

WARM TEMPERATURES THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS MELTED A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE BLACK RIVER BASIN AS WELL. PORTIONS OF THE
BASIN ARE BARE...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK ON
THE TUG HILL...AND IN SOME OF THE FORESTS. ACROSS THE TUG...WATER
EQUIVALENTS AVERAGE 2 TO 4 INCHES. WHILE THIS IS WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE RECENT MELTING HAS CAUSED RIVERS AND
CREEKS TO RISE...WITH MOST RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE GROUND IS ALSO SATURATED.

THE FOLLOWING IS A SUMMARY OF CONDITIONS AND OUTLOOK BY BASIN AS
OF THE MORNING OF THURSDAY MARCH 15TH:

...BUFFALO AREA CREEKS / LAKE ERIE BASIN...
.SNOW COVER...NONE.
.WATER EQUIVALENT...NONE.
.CREEK FLOWS...NEAR NORMAL.
.CREEK ICE.....NONE. 
.GROUND FROST..NONE. 
.GROUND STATE..SATURATED.

...GENESEE RIVER BASIN / FINGER LAKES / ROCHESTER AREA...
.SNOW COVER...NONE.
.WATER EQUIVALENT...NONE.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...NEAR NORMAL.
.RIVER/CREEK ICE.....NONE.
.GROUND FROST........NONE.
.GROUND STATE........SATURATED.

...ALLEGHENY RIVER BASIN...
.SNOW COVER.........NONE.
.WATER EQUIVALENT...NONE.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...NEAR NORMAL.
.RIVER CREEK ICE.....NONE.
.GROUND FROST........NONE.
.GROUND STATE........SATURATED.

...BLACK AND SALMON RIVER BASINS / TUG HILL...
.SNOW COVER..........BARE...6 TO 12 INCHES TUG HILL.
.WATER EQUIVALENT...NONE...2 TO 4 INCHES TUG HILL.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...ABOVE NORMAL.
.RIVER/CREEK ICE.....LIGHT.
.GROUND FROST........UP TO 6 INCHES.
.GROUND STATE........SATURATED.

...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

THROUGH MARCH 22ND...A EARLY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL SETTLE IN
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT...RESULTING IN RAPID SNOW MELT FOR ANY SNOW THAT
REMAINS. THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS. WHILE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS NOT LIKELY...THERE MAY BE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. BY THE MIDDLE AND LATTER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT A FAIRLY DRY PATTERN TO BE IN PLACE.

AFTER THIS...EXPECT NEARLY ALL SNOW TO BE MELTED. WHILE THERE MAY BE A
LOW RISK FOR FLOODING DUE TO RAINFALL ALONE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE
NO SNOW PACK TO CONTRIBUTE TO FLOOD RISK BY LATE MARCH.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

OVERALL...FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF MARCH
FOR MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK. 

FOR MOST BASINS...THERE WILL BE NO CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOW
MELT...WITH ANY FLOOD RISK PURELY COMING FROM RAINFALL. THERE MAY
BE A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT THESE WILL ONLY IMPACT SMALLER BASINS...WITH NO
WIDESPREAD FLOODING EXPECTED.

IN THE BLACK RIVER BASIN THERE STILL IS SOME SNOW...AND AN
INCREASINGLY RIPE SNOW PACK. THIS AREA WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
VULNERABLE TO A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...GIVEN HIGH FLOWS AND THIS MINIMAL BUT RIPE SNOW PACK. WITH
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION...IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY WHERE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE. IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL RIGHT ACROSS THE BLACK RIVER BASIN...BUT THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK THIS WILL HAPPEN. SO IF THERE IS A REGION TO WATCH
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...IT IS THE BLACK RIVER BASIN. HOWEVER...IF
THE REGION AVOIDS HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...IT IS
EXPECTED THAT THE SNOW WILL BE ALL MELTED AFTER THIS. FLOOD RISK
FOR THE BLACK RIVER BASIN IS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEN BELOW NORMAL AFTERWARD.

...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

REAL TIME RIVER INFORMATION AND PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS FOR
SPECIFIC LOCATIONS ALONG RIVERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK CAN BE
FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF BY CLICKING ON THE
RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS LINK ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE PAGE. SINCE
CONDITIONS CAN PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD
WARNINGS...WATCHES...AND STATEMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED OUTLOOK MAY BE ISSUED BY THURSDAY
MARCH 29 2012...IF ANY SNOW PACK REMAINS. THANKS TO ALL THE
OBSERVERS AND AGENCIES WHICH HAVE HELPED GATHER DATA IN SUPPORT OF
THIS OUTLOOK.

$$

APFFEL