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Fire Weather Forecast
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000

FNUS51 KBUF 010911

FWFBUF



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR WESTERN NEW YORK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY

411 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015



.DISCUSSION...



A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY THIS 

MORNING WITH A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING 

IN THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY 

TONIGHT THEN MOVE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A 

WIDE SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK TONIGHT 

THROUGH MONDAY INCLUDING ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK ALONG 

WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF 

FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL 

DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.



NYZ001-002-010-011-012115-

NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-

411 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015



                                TODAY      TONIGHT          MON

CLOUD COVER                    CLOUDY       CLOUDY       CLOUDY

PRECIP CHC (%)                     60          100          100

PRECIP TYPE              SNOW SHOWERS         SNOW         SNOW

MAX/MIN TEMP                       22            7           12

AM WIND (MPH)                   NE 10                     NE 21

PM WIND (MPH)                   NE 14         E 17         N 14

PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.05         0.37         0.38

PRECIP DURATION                     4           12           12

PRECIP BEGIN                     6 AM   CONTINUING   CONTINUING

PRECIP END                 CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING

MIN/MAX HUMIDITY (%)               74           85           68

HAINES INDEX                        3            2            2

LAL                                 1            1            1

MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)              3150          770         3150

TRANSPORT WIND (KT)              N 10         E 19        NW 13

VENT RATE (KT-FT)               31500        14630        40950

DISPERSION INDEX                   32           15           41

REMARKS...NONE.



$$



NYZ012-019>021-085-012115-

WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-

411 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015



                                TODAY      TONIGHT          MON

CLOUD COVER                    CLOUDY       CLOUDY       CLOUDY

PRECIP CHC (%)                    100          100          100

PRECIP TYPE                      SNOW         SNOW         SNOW

MAX/MIN TEMP                       26            9           18

AM WIND (MPH)                    N  5                     NE 14

PM WIND (MPH)                    E  9         E 13        NW 14

PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.11         0.49         0.25

PRECIP DURATION                     9           12           11

PRECIP BEGIN                     6 AM   CONTINUING   CONTINUING

PRECIP END                 CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING

MIN/MAX HUMIDITY (%)               73           84           69

HAINES INDEX                        2            2            2

LAL                                 1            1            1

MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)              2900          590         2900

TRANSPORT WIND (KT)              E  6         E 15         N 18

VENT RATE (KT-FT)               17400         8850        52200

DISPERSION INDEX                   17            9           52

REMARKS...NONE.



$$



NYZ003>005-013-014-012115-

MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-

411 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015



                                TODAY      TONIGHT          MON

CLOUD COVER                    CLOUDY       CLOUDY       CLOUDY

PRECIP CHC (%)                     50          100          100

PRECIP TYPE              SNOW SHOWERS         SNOW         SNOW

MAX/MIN TEMP                       22            9           14

AM WIND (MPH)                    N 10                     NE 18

PM WIND (MPH)                   NE 10        NE 11         N 16

PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.04         0.36         0.41

PRECIP DURATION                     4           12           12

PRECIP BEGIN                     6 AM   CONTINUING   CONTINUING

PRECIP END                 CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING

MIN/MAX HUMIDITY (%)               68           83           66

HAINES INDEX                        3            2            2

LAL                                 1            1            1

MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)              2860          650         3140

TRANSPORT WIND (KT)              N 13        NE 15        NW 16

VENT RATE (KT-FT)               37180         9750        50240

DISPERSION INDEX                   37           10           50

REMARKS...NONE.



$$



NYZ006>008-012115-

OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-

411 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015



                                TODAY      TONIGHT          MON

CLOUD COVER                     MCLDY       CLOUDY       CLOUDY

PRECIP CHC (%)                      0           90          100

PRECIP TYPE                      NONE         SNOW         SNOW

MAX/MIN TEMP                       13            0           12

AM WIND (MPH)                    N  9                     NE 14

PM WIND (MPH)                    N  7        NE  7         N 12

PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.00         0.13         0.39

PRECIP DURATION                                  6           12

PRECIP BEGIN                                 10 PM   CONTINUING

PRECIP END                              CONTINUING   CONTINUING

MIN/MAX HUMIDITY (%)               57           76           61

HAINES INDEX                        4            3            2

LAL                                 1            1            1

MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)              2620          560         3230

TRANSPORT WIND (KT)              N  7        NE  9        NE 13

VENT RATE (KT-FT)               18340         5040        41990

DISPERSION INDEX                   18            5           42

REMARKS...NONE.



$$



.EXTENDED FORECAST...



.MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND

1. 

.TUESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS AROUND 18. 

.WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY WITH SNOW LIKELY. NOT AS COLD. LOWS AROUND

16. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY. COLDER. LOWS AROUND 5.

HIGHS AROUND 13. 

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 4 BELOW. HIGHS AROUND 18. 

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS

AROUND 9. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. 



WIND MONDAY NIGHT...NORTH AROUND 10 MPH. 

WIND TUESDAY...WEST AROUND 15 MPH. 

WIND WEDNESDAY...SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH. 

WIND THURSDAY...NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. 



.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...

TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.  PRECIPITATION ABOVE NORMAL.



$$














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