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Fire Weather Forecast
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000

FNUS51 KBUF 221136

FWFBUF



FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR WESTERN NEW YORK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY

636 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014



.DISCUSSION...



RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH SOME OF THE 

PRECIPITATION FALLING AS SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN 

SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY BEFORE 

TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND 

AND INTO MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND WINDY 

CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A DEEP AREA OF LOW 

PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF 

RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS 

PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A COLD FRONT WILL 

THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE 

WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.



NYZ001-002-010-011-222115-

NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-

636 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014



                                TODAY      TONIGHT          SUN

CLOUD COVER                     MCLDY       CLOUDY        MCLDY

PRECIP CHC (%)                     80           70           40

PRECIP TYPE                  FRZ RAIN      SHOWERS    SPRINKLES

MAX/MIN TEMP                       43           40           48

AM WIND (MPH)                   SW 15                     SW 10

PM WIND (MPH)                   SW 18        SW 19         S  9

PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.05         0.11         0.02

PRECIP DURATION                     4            6            1

PRECIP BEGIN                    11 AM   CONTINUING        12 PM

PRECIP END                 CONTINUING         4 AM   CONTINUING

MIN/MAX HUMIDITY (%)               52           84           73

HAINES INDEX                        3            2            3

LAL                                 1            1            1

MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)              1250          260          940

TRANSPORT WIND (KT)             SW 15        SW 16        SW 12

VENT RATE (KT-FT)               18750         4160        11280

DISPERSION INDEX                   19            4           11

REMARKS...NONE.



$$



NYZ012-019>021-085-222115-

WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-

636 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014



                                TODAY      TONIGHT          SUN

CLOUD COVER                     MCLDY       CLOUDY        MCLDY

PRECIP CHC (%)                     80           70           30

PRECIP TYPE                  FRZ RAIN      SHOWERS    SPRINKLES

MAX/MIN TEMP                       40           37           47

AM WIND (MPH)                    S 14                     SW 11

PM WIND (MPH)                   SW 18        SW 18         S 10

PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.08         0.13         0.02

PRECIP DURATION                     5            6            2

PRECIP BEGIN                    11 AM   CONTINUING        11 AM

PRECIP END                 CONTINUING   CONTINUING         3 PM

MIN/MAX HUMIDITY (%)               47           82           66

HAINES INDEX                        3            2            3

LAL                                 1            1            1

MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)               890          200          640

TRANSPORT WIND (KT)             SW 20        SW 12         S 10

VENT RATE (KT-FT)               17800         2400         6400

DISPERSION INDEX                   18            2            6

REMARKS...NONE.



$$



NYZ003>005-013-014-222115-

MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-

636 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014



                                TODAY      TONIGHT          SUN

CLOUD COVER                     MCLDY       CLOUDY        MCLDY

PRECIP CHC (%)                     60           60           40

PRECIP TYPE                      RAIN      SHOWERS    SPRINKLES

MAX/MIN TEMP                       41           40           49

AM WIND (MPH)                    S 12                     SW  9

PM WIND (MPH)                   SW 16        SW 16         S  8

PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.02         0.05         0.01

PRECIP DURATION                     2            5            1

PRECIP BEGIN                     1 PM   CONTINUING         3 PM

PRECIP END                 CONTINUING         4 AM   CONTINUING

MIN/MAX HUMIDITY (%)               46           79           69

HAINES INDEX                        3            2            2

LAL                                 1            1            1

MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)              1000          300          850

TRANSPORT WIND (KT)             SW 19        SW 13         S 10

VENT RATE (KT-FT)               19000         3900         8500

DISPERSION INDEX                   19            4            9

REMARKS...NONE.



$$



NYZ006>008-222115-

OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-

636 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014



                                TODAY      TONIGHT          SUN

CLOUD COVER                     MCLDY       CLOUDY        MCLDY

PRECIP CHC (%)                     80           80            0

PRECIP TYPE                 SNOW/RAIN     FRZ RAIN         NONE

MAX/MIN TEMP                       38           33           46

AM WIND (MPH)                    S 11                     SW  8

PM WIND (MPH)                    S 13         S 12         S  8

PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.10         0.30         0.00

PRECIP DURATION                     5            9             

PRECIP BEGIN                    12 PM   CONTINUING             

PRECIP END                 CONTINUING         6 AM             

MIN/MAX HUMIDITY (%)               51           86           75

HAINES INDEX                        3            2            2

LAL                                 1            1            1

MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)              2830          340         1660

TRANSPORT WIND (KT)              S 14        SW 12        SW 11

VENT RATE (KT-FT)               39620         4080        18260

DISPERSION INDEX                   40            4           18

REMARKS...NONE.



$$



.EXTENDED FORECAST...



.SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. 

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

50S. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND A CHANCE OF

SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER

40S. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. 

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN

THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE

UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. 



WIND SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH. 

WIND MONDAY...BREEZY. SOUTH AROUND 25 MPH. 

WIND TUESDAY...BREEZY. WEST 20 TO 25 MPH. 

WIND WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH. 



.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...

TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.  PRECIPITATION NEAR NORMAL.



$$














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