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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 210648
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
248 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR BUFFALO WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATER TODAY AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK...TRAPPED
BY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF
THE NATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND EXTEND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AND FOR THE
MOMENT...MOST OF THE RAIN IS EAST OF OHIO. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER
LOW DROPPING SOUTH TODAY REACHING EASTERN LAKE ERIE BY 18Z AND
WESTERN PA BY 00Z. IN RESPONSE...THE HRRR SHOWS PRECIP
REDEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
HIGHEST COVERAGE AND GREATEST CONFIDENCE EAST THIRD TO HALF. WILL
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FROM CLEVELAND EAST AND TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FAR WEST. WITH CLOUDS...RAIN AND SOME COLD
ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PA TODAY REACHING NRN VA
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW MOVES BACK NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BASICALLY EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WILL BE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS EAST. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START...RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE AREA 
SAT OR EARLY SAT NIGHT IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL STAY 
WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE MORE FOR 
SAT...GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

CONTINUE UNCERTAINTY FOR SUN DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP 
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SAT. MORE UPPER RIDGING FOR 
MON AND A S TO SW FLOW SHOULD FINALLY LEAD TO A DAY OF TEMPS ABOVE 
NORMAL. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP THE BETTER MOISTURE WEST OF THE 
AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO DAYLIGHT THEN SHOW A 
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT FROM 14 TO 18Z. TOL AND FDY MAY BE ABLE TO CARRY 
VFR LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT SITES FURTHER EAST WILL LIKELY 
HANG ON TO MVFR. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE LATE AFTERNOON THRU 06Z. SCT 
SHRA...MAINLY FROM CLE TO CAK EAST WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS AS 
UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS JUST EAST OF AREA. COLDER TEMPS WILL ALSO ADD 
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHRA.

WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THEN SHOULD 
GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THINK INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF 
THE LAKE TODAY THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AND MAYBE 
EVEN INTO THU EVE AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH 
PRESSURE DOES FINALLY SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRI AND SHOULD 
DECREASE THE WINDS ENOUGH FOR WAVES TO BE BELOW 4 FEET.

THE MODELS DIFFER MORE FOR SAT SO THE STRENGTH AND AFFECTS OF A COLD 
FRONT THAT MAY CROSS THE LAKE IS IN QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW 
SOME INCREASE IN A SW WIND BY SAT VEERING WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS






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