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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 211053
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
653 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG ON ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY FOR
ONE MORE WARM AND DRY DAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT IS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO TRACK/FORECAST THE CURRENT HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER EARLY THIS MORNING OTHERWISE NO CHANGES
FOR THE MANDATORY EARLY MORNING UPDATE.

MORNING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE IS SLOW MOVING AND SEEMS AS THOUGH IT WILL
STAY IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH. THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE NEAR
LAKE WINNIPEG IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THE NEXT 36
HOURS. THE FIRST COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE NORTHERN FRONT TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST.
NOT SURE THE DEEP GULF MOISTURE EVER GETS THIS FAR NORTH. THIS
GIVES PLENTY OF TIME TO SNEAK IN ANOTHER NICE DAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH CLINGS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND WILL PROVIDE A WARM AND
DRY SOUTH BREEZE WITH SLOWLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.

IF THE WIND WERE STRONGER WE WOULD QUALIFY FOR A RED FLAG DAY AS 
THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF DRIED WINTER FUEL OUT THERE BUT THE WIND 
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS TODAY...NOT ENOUGH FOR RAPID 
SPREAD OF ANY BRUSH FIRES. WILL MENTION ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN THE 
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

FORECAST HIGHS TODAY WELL IN THE 70S. WILL FORECAST 2-3 DEGREES 
ABOVE YESTERDAY...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 80F AT A FEW LOCATIONS THIS 
AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT IS STILL LIGHT ENOUGH FOR A LAKE BREEZE AT 
SITES UP THE LAKESHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND BUT THE INFLUENCE WILL BE 
LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS MAY BE A SHADE TOO FAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
TONIGHT SINCE WE HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE SECOND FRONT WHICH IS STILL
BACK IN THE UPPER MID WEST. WILL TIME THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS OF TUE MORNING FOR NW OHIO AND TUE MORNING NE
OH/NW PA. IT WILL STAY MILD TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPS
ONLY BEING KNOCKED DOWN WHEN THE SHOWERS ARRIVE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
DO NOT SHOW MUCH CAPE AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LATE ARRIVAL
TONIGHT THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A BIG THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO BUT KEPT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH POST FRONTAL PASSAGE SUBSIDENCE TUESDAY FOR
CLEARING OR AT LEAST BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW
OHIO FROM TUESDAY MID MORNING ON. THE CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SO IT WILL LIKELY STAY NOTICEABLY COOLER THERE
ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ON
TUESDAY...PERHAPS AN EARLY MORNING HIGH IN THE LOWER/MID 50S.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH THE TRAILING SHORT 
WAVE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY 
WEDNESDAY MORNING. 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -5C. 
WILL MENTION WET SNOW FLAKES...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF 
INLAND EXTREME NE OH AND ESPECIALLY NW PA EARLY WED MORNING. WE 
SHOULD GET SOME DECENT SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 
THE SUN SHOULD COME OUT AT ALL LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 
MID/LATE AFTERNOON INLAND NE OH/NW PA. 

A FEW ITEMS MAKE ME A LITTLE NERVOUS ON THURSDAY. VERY STRONG WARM 
ADVECTION IS PROGGED JUST UP STREAM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS 
SHOULD BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AS WELL 
AS SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RIDGING ALOFT AND HOW DRY 
THE SURFACE IS... THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE ANY SHOWERS. DUE TO THE 
THE CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY COOL/DRY SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL NOT GO QUITE 
AS WARM AS IT COULD BE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE MID 50S 
TO THE MID 60S THURSDAY. THE OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE THUR
NIGHT. WE HAVE THUNDER MENTIONED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST AND I
CANNOT RULE IT OUT ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.   MODELS IN REASONABLE 
AGREEMENT MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.  THE GFS 
CONTINUES TO BE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS.   SOME LINGERING SHOWERS 
POSSIBLE IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING.  LEFT CHANCE POPS GOING INTO 
FRIDAY NIGHT AS GFS HAS SECONDARY FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE 
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  GFS SHOWS SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGING 
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE SUNDAY NIGHT SO LEFT CHANCE POPS GOING IN 
THE EAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT TOO.  MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON 
MONDAY.  GFS HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WHILE THE 
ECMWF HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. 
SINCE SO MUCH DOUBT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CONTINUITY AND LEAVE CHANCE 
POPS GOING FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARD EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS PROBABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY IN
SHRA...THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON 
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING COLD 
FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW 
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS.   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY 
BE NEEDED.  WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY ON 
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE.   HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
REMAIN OVER THE LAKE UNTIL FRIDAY...WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES 
THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB






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