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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 190451
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1251 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST. TWEAKED CLOUD COVER FOR 930
UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
EXPECT ANOTHER FAIR AND COOL NIGHT AS MAINLY DIURNAL CUMULUS
DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET. MORE CLOUDS ARE OVER CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN AND ARE DRIFTING SOUTH BUT SHOW SIGNS OF DISSIPATION AND
AFTERNOON MIXING. SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

RATHER COOL AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
MID 40S GENERALLY WITH SLIGHTLY WARM READINGS AT THE LAKESHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS BY
TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE UP THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WITH
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL PERHAPS
MID AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTH NEAR LAKE LAKE ERIE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. HAVE USED
THE SREF QPF TO INFLUENCE THE POP FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY
AND REACH WELL INTO THE 70S.


THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
12Z AND SHOULD PROGRESS EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE THUNDER TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS SIMILAR BETWEEN
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SO CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH ON
PRECIPITATION TIMING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
LINGERING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER LAKE ERIE. THIS ADDED
UPPER VERTICAL MOTION ALONG WITH MORE INSTABILITY FROM THE STILL
WARM LAKE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING IN THE USUAL
SNOWBELT COUNTIES EAST OF CLE EARLY IN THE EVENING WHILE GRADUAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST. MORE REINFORCING COLD ADVECTION
CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON 
MONDAY BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE 
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER EXTREME NE OHIO 
INTO NW PA ON MONDAY. HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR 
AS THE COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS THE THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT INTO 
TUESDAY. THESE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING 
ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IF 
WINDS DECREASE ENOUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE MAY BE A FEW 
LOWS IN THE 30S ACROSS INLAND EASTERN OHIO AND INLAND NW PA. 

HIGHS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH 
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. SOME UPPER 50S WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS 
INLAND NW PA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THE 
LONGEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOWER STRATOCUMULUS WAFFLING AROUND FROM LAKE ERIE INTO EXTREME
NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
THIS CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY THIN OUT WITH TIME OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH CLEARING BY
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A BIT TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 04Z
ACROSS THE AREA AND SHIFT TO AROUND 170 DEGREES AT THAT TIME.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SUNDAY THEN NON-VFR
CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT IS SOUTH OF THE LAKE ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO 
BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST 
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW 
EASTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP BY FRIDAY MORNING THEN WINDS GRADUALLY 
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS 
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND MAY BE STRONG 
ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS 
THE LAKE ON SUNDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS ALONG IT. NORTHWEST TO NORTH 
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT EARLY SUNDAY WITH SMALL 
CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUING. WAVES WILL BUILD TO AT LEAST 3 TO 5 
FEET INTO AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...DJB/LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...MULLEN







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