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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 211449
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1049 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY THEN HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWEST 
OF THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG WARM ADVECTION OVER THE MIDWEST IS BEING BLOCKED BY THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...AT LEAST FOR THE TIME
BEING. THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ENABLE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THAT CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS
ESSENTIALLY BECOME A MID LEVEL CONVECTIVE VORTEX. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD SEEM TO BE FROM AROUND
FINDLAY TO MANSFIELD TO CANTON AND POINTS SOUTHEAST. THE HEAVIEST
MAY SLIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THERE IS ALREADY ENOUGH CAPE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
CONVECTION WILL POP US ELSEWHERE BUT PROBABLY IN A MORE RANDOM
FASHION FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR OTHER CONVERGENCE SOURCES.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DEBRIS CLOUDS TO SUPPRESS THE ACTIVITY FOR A
WHILE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LAKE SHADOW UP THE EAST LAKESHORE
THAT MAY PROTECT ASHTABULA AND ERIE FROM ANY NEW CONVECTION FOR A
WHILE BUT NO GUARANTEES. NOT MUCH SHEAR ALOFT BUT NOT AS WARM
ALOFT AS ONE MIGHT GUESS...THE FREEZING LEVEL IS GENERALLY BETWEEN
13-14K. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ENERGETIC THUNDERSTORMS BUT AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE THE RAIN IS MORE OF A THREAT. IF WE GET ANY TRAINING
THEN THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED FLOOD PROBLEMS.

THE HUMID AIR MASS AND INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
TEMPS FROM RISING TOO MUCH. EXPECT HIGHS FROM UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER
AND MID 80S. MAY HAVE TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO KEEP THE HOURLY
AND HIGH TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES WHERE THE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER OR NEAR THE AREA THRU SUN NIGHT 
TO CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AS WAVES OF 
CONVECTION OCCUR THE THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL REMAIN HIGHER THAN 
NORMAL. NEXT ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT 
INTO FRI WITH A COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPS OVER WI/NRN IL AND MOVES ESE 
INTO THE CWA THEN END OF TONIGHT AND FRI. SOME OF THESE STORMS IN 
THE WEST COULD BE SEVERE TONIGHT AND FRI.

SAT INTO SAT NIGHT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IS SHOWN MOVING OVER THE AREA 
SO THIS TIME PERIOD MAY BE THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING THE LEAST AMOUNT 
OF CONVECTION. SAT AND SUN HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO BE VERY WARM 
DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SW IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE CAN OCCUR. HIGHS 
THESE DAYS IN THE SW MAY BE NEAR 90 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON THE 
AREA INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY. AFTERNOON HEATING AND ANY LOCALIZED 
CONVERGENCE MAY BE ABLE TO CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING 
THUNDERSTORMS. BY WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE SHOULD BE BREAKING DOWN AND 
START TO GET NUDGED EASTWARD AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN 
PLAINS. THIS MAY MEAN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY. 

THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE LONGEST STRETCH OF WARM AND 
HUMID AIR OF THE SEASON. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH MIDDLE 
AND UPPER 80S COMMON. SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE STILL MAY BE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG WITH THE INITIAL MIX THIS
MORNING BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE UNAFFECTED. THE MOVEMENT OF A
WARM FRONT THAT IS LOCATED FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHWEST
OHIO WILL BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. 

THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST WITH LIFT EXPECT NEAR AND NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CLIP THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION NEAR KFDY THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH HEATING TO ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY FROM KCLE EASTWARD ACROSS KCAK INTO THE KYNG
AREA. TRIED TO TIME THIS INTO THESE SITES. THE MAIN SHOW LOOKS AS
IF IT WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS AN MCS
DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO NW OHIO. LOCATIONS FURTHER EAST WILL BE IN
ITS PATH BEYOND 12Z ON FRIDAY. 

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED OVER OHIO INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS 
OCCURRING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE 
ATMOSPHERE INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD MEAN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS 
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS ATTEMPTING TO BECOME ONSHORE EACH 
AFTERNOON. A LAND BREEZE IS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT. WAVES WILL BE 2 
FEET OR LESS AWAY FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS/KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN






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