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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 201100
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
600 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE LOCAL
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
TODAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER A PERSISTENT INVERSION.
COULD SEE A FEW PEAKS OF SUN LATE IN THE DAY BUT THE FLAVOR OF THE
DAY WILL DEFINITELY BE CLOUDY. AS A RESULT EXPECT A VERY SMALL
DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPERATURES TODAY SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
CURRENT TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. AM OPTIMISTIC THAT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SCOUR OUT SOME OF
THE CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. STILL A LOT OF QUESTIONS FOR THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE SURFACE FEATURES THAT WILL AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE MADE CHANGES TO THE MONDAY FORECAST AS IT NOW
LOOKS LIKE MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE DAY WILL BE DRY. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL STEADILY INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL
EVENTUALLY NEED LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY EVENING. AT FIRST
THE PRECIP WILL BE SHOWERY BUT EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE ALSO
CONTINUED THE RECENT TREND OF BUMPING TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND PLUS 10
DEGREES SO LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING THUNDER TO THE
TUESDAY FORECAST.  WINDS WILL BE RIPPING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
AND MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO CONSIDER SOME SORT OF WIND
HEADLINE...ESPECIALLY NEAR KERI WHERE STRONG DOWNSLOPING SE FLOW
IS A POSSIBILITY. THE MODELS REALLY BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD ENDS. HOPEFULLY MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE 
CENTRAL LAKES ON WEDNESDAY LIFTING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST 
AREA.  ECMWF A LITTLE FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW.   BOTH 
MODELS HAVE THE 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO 8-9C WHICH WOULD GIVE SURFACE 
TEMPS IN THE 50S.  STILL HAVE SOME DOUBTS AS TO EXACT TRACK AND 
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM SO UNDERCUT MODELS TEMPS WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN 
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WHICH IS STILL 10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  

WHICHEVER MODEL YOU BELIEVE FORECAST IS STILL THE SAME.  RAIN ON 
WEDNESDAY CHANGING TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN 
TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  BY CHRISTMAS MORNING THE 850MB TEMPS 
PLUNGE TO -9C AND THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE BEGINS.  BUT WITH A 
SOUTHWEST FLOW BUFFALO WILL GET THE BULK OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

MODELS TOTALLY DIVERGE BY FRIDAY.   THE GFS HAS A SECONDARY COLD 
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MORE COLD AND SNOW.   THE ECMWF IS 
TOTALLY OPPOSITE...MOVING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE 
CENTRAL LAKES LIFTING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.   IN THIS 
SCENARIO THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE RAIN.  FOR NOW WILL JUST LEAVE 
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
STRATUS DECK OVER ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. POSSIBLE SOME SITES MAY
BREAK INTO VFR TERRITORY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO DID NOT PUT INTO TAFS. 

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY TO CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND INTO
SUNDAY ACROSS THE EAST. NON-VFR RETURNS LATER ON MONDAY AND STICKS
AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WORK WEEK.  
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES WILL 
SLIDE EAST AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY.  AS HIGH 
SLIDES EAST WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.  CONDITIONS 
CHANGE DRASTICALLY BY MID WEEK AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES 
ACROSS THE LAKES.   MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTENSE LOW INTO THE 
CENTRAL LAKES WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE 
ERIE.   GFS MOVES THE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY 
WHILE THE ECMWF IS FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE 
LOW.   EITHER WAY WEST TO SOUTHWEST GALES LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT 
INTO THURSDAY.  FRIDAY STILL IN DOUBT AS GFS MOVES A SECONDARY COLD 
FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE...WHILE ECMWF MOVES A SECOND LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEM NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB






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