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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 021348
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
948 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY EXTENDING FROM LOW 
PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXPAND OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN TO THE EAST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST BUT A LOT OF IT IS
NOT REACHING THE GROUND. SO WILL DROP PROBABILITIES DOWN TO A
CHANCE IN MOST AREAS. ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AT THIS TIME WITH THE COLD FRONT. EXPECTING
THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH THE FRONT AND IF ANY RAIN FALLS
FROM IT...IT WILL BE VERY BRIEF. AS BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST BEGIN
TO MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION...WILL SEE SOME SUN AND THIS WILL
HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. 
IT LOOKS LIKE A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER LAKE ERIE ON 
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH THIS EVENING AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH 
CONVERGENCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE. LEFT A LOW 
POP BOTH OVER THE LAKE AND ALONG THE EASTERN LAKESHORE FOR A PORTION 
OF THE NIGHT. INLAND AREAS...ESPECIALLY OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD 
SEE SOME FOG OR STRATUS GIVEN THE LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE 
COUPLED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL 
BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. 

THE AIR MASS DOES NOT COOL MUCH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND 
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL 
ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT IN THE HUMIDITY WHICH 
WILL BE LOWER AND MORE PLEASANT WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 60 DEGREES. 
MAINLY JUST SCATTERED CU ON WEDNESDAY ONCE ANY MORNING CLOUDS BURN 
OFF.

HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND A WARM FRONT WILL 
LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE 
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THEN 
CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. ENOUGH DRY AIR SHOULD 
STILL BE IN PLACE ON THURSDAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA TO STAY DRY. 
LEFT THE 20 POP IN THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE DOES 
START TO INCREASE ALTHOUGH THE MORE FOCUSED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL 
BE WELL TO THE NORTH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH 
TOWARDS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. LOWERED POPS DURING THE MORNING HOURS 
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THAT SHOULD STRUGGLE TO SEE ANY 
PRECIPITATION UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND 
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH A FEW SPOTS MAKING A RUN AT THE 
UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING 
A COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR AND HIGH 
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. DONT THINK THE DAY WILL BEGIN DRY HOWEVER 
AS THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER THAN THE GFS IN MOVING MOISTURE OUT OF 
THE AREA.  WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE MORNING 
SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH. 
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY LOOK DRY.  TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AFTER AN 
ABOVE NORMAL END TO THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST NR A KFNT-KSBN LINE. FROM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. CONVECTION FROM INDIANA
TRACKING ENE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN OHIO. WILL LIKELY SEE THUNDER
INTO NRN OHIO BUT KEPT MENTION OUT OF THE FAR NRN TAFS. HRRR MOVES
THIS PRECIP THROUGH DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
POSSIBLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FOR MID AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE PRECIP...LIFTING TO VFR 2
TO 4 HOURS AFTER PRECIP ENDS. EXPECT THE EVENING WILL BEGIN VFR
HOWEVER WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...DRYING ALOFT AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EXPECT MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS/FOG TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL BEGIN TODAY CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA MAINLY EAST OF 
CONNEAUT BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST JUST BELOW. WINDS 
TODAY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT DUE IN 
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL TURN WEST TO BRIEFLY 
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND 
WEDNESDAY.  THURSDAY THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST AND A LOW WILL BE 
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL AGAIN SETUP SOUTHWEST 
FLOW ON THE LAKE THURSDAY INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. THE LOW WILL 
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE 
LAKE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT 
AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH CLOSE...NO NEAR TERM 
HEADLINES FOR NOW.  FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WE COULD REACH SMALL CRAFT 
CRITERIA AS WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK






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