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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 251723
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
123 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA 
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLIDE 
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE 
SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY BRINGING A SOUTH FLOW AND WARMER AIR BACK 
TO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN 
GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS 
THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NICE JET STREAKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL DIVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS NW OHIO EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND NE OH/NW PA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD REMAIN
ON THE SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THE JET AND WITH NO GULF INFLOW NOT TOO
WORRIED ABOUT SHOWERS ALTHOUGH I SUPPOSE SOMEONE COULD SEE A DROP
OR TWO. WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING A "SLIGHT CHANCE" AROUND ERIE PA AND
I WILL JUST CALL IT "SPRINKLES". THE AIR MASS IS TOO WARM FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. CURRENTLY A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OUT THERE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THE MAJORITY OF CLOUDS ARE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. WITH THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING
ACROSS NW OHIO THIS AFTERNOON REACHING NE OH LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE VARIETY OF CLOUDS I SUSPECT THAT TEMPS WILL
GET AS WARM AS THEY CAN GIVEN THE MILD AIR MASS IN PLACE AND THE
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE...PROBABLY MID AND UPPER 60S FOR MOST. THE
BREEZE...15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY...WILL LIKELY MAKE IT FEEL
SOMEWHAT CHILLY THOUGH ESPECIALLY IN THE SHADE. NO CHANGES WITH
THIS MIDDAY UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY... 
PROBABLY ONLY IN THE SNOWBELT AND PERHAPS MAINLY ACROSS NW PA. A 
WEAK TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY 
MORNING BUT WITH THE AIR MASS BEING DRY WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF 
SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA AROUND 10 PERCENT. SUNNY ELSEWHERE ON SUNDAY 
AND SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. 

LOTS OF RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BY MONDAY. A BATCH OF 
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BRUSH THE AREA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY 
MORNING AS THE WARM ADVECTION INCREASES BUT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET 
SOME DECENT SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR 
PERHAPS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA WHERE THE WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS MAY 
LINGER. WITH THE SURFACE WIND COMING AROUND FROM THE SOUTH TEMPS 
SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF NW OHIO AND NORTH CENTRAL 
OH...PROBABLY HOLDING IN THE MID/UPPER 60S EXTREME NE OH/NW PA.

THE MODELS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD 
FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE FASTER MODELS HAVE THE FRONT EAST OF THE AREA 
BY EVENING. THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST ...BARELY GETTING THE FRONT
TO I-71 BY EVENING. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ALL OUT SLOW AND I
THINK IT IS BETTER TO AT LEAST MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
NE OH/NW PA IN THE AFTERNOON. THUNDER WAS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND I SUPPOSE THERE IS A CHANCE CONSIDERING
THE DECENT JET ENERGY...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER. WILL
KEEP IT WARM TUESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON 
WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONGER UPPER LOW CURLS NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC. 
THIS SECONDARY TROUGH WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE 
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A DRY SLOT WILL BE OVERHEAD WITH JUST A SHALLOW 
MOIST LAYER SO HAVE CONFINED POPS TO JUST AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE 
ERIE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN 
AGREEMENT THAT A HEALTHY CU FIELD FILLS IN WITH THE COLD ADVECTION 
SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND DECREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW 
DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO BACK AND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO 
BE CONFINED CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORE. 

A FAIRLY ROBUST PIECE OF ENERGY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA 
ON THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 
UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL PUSH A 
STRONGER COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT VARY WITH 
RESPECT TO HOW THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWERED 
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 40S AND THESE MAY NEED TO 
BE LOWERED IF THE FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY. DID 
INTRODUCE A RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO THE FORECAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT BUT EVEN 
THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS HIGH PRESSURE 
STRENGTHENS NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. ALTHOUGH THIS TROUGH COULD BRING THE 
COOLEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR...LONG RANGE MODELS DO SHOW IT 
MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH THE RIDGE ALREADY BUILDING 
OVERHEAD FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
IN THE WEST BUT REMAIN ABOVE 10 KNOTS IN THE EAST OVERNIGHT.
EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES OR CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING
TOMORROW MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SHOWERS
THEN RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY AS A TROUGH 
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE 
LAKE THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT AFTER 11 
AM FOR NEARSHORE WATERS EAST OF AVON WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 
FEET BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT 
AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO BACK 
TO THE ISLANDS AND POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY TO TOLEDO. THE SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORY FOR THE EAST END OF THE LAKE WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 
SUNDAY EVENING WHEN WINDS AND WAVES FINALLY DECREASE ENOUGH WITH 
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE REGION. 

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY WITH 
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON TUESDAY. THE 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE TUESDAY 
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED 
ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KEC






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