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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 281156
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
656 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY THEN OFF 
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OUT OF THE 
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY NIGHT 
AND PULL A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN AND WE CONTINUE TO DRY OUT. THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES HAVE ALL BEEN CANCELLED WITH ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH EXPECTED BEFORE ENDING. BEST CHANCES
FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FOCUSED FROM GEAUGA COUNTY EAST
ACROSS ASHTABULA AND INLAND ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES. 

SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING BUT CLOUDS 
WILL FILL IN THIS AFTERNOON AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE 
AREA. AFTER A COOL START TO THE MORNING AND FRESH SNOW COVER IN THE 
SNOWBELT...HIGHS WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 
DEGREES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY TONIGHT WITH INCREASING 
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN SHOWING OVER 0.20 QPF 
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE OTHER 
MODELS JUST CLIP OUR NE CWA WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH THE 
GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION FOR 
THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...THE 00Z RUN HAD AT LEAST DOUBLE THE QPF FROM 
WHAT MOST OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE SHOWING. IT IS NOT ENTIRELY 
CLEAR WHAT IS DRIVING THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION SHOWN BY THE GFS BUT 
THE 500MB VORTICITY PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK GREAT AND COULD HAVE SOME 
ERRORS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE BETTER CONSENSUS OFFERED BY THE OTHER 
MODELS WHICH SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR INTERFERING THE THE 
SNOW AND ONLY CARRY 50-60 POPS IN NE OHIO/NW PA WITH LESS THAN AN 
INCH OF SNOW.

A BIG WARM UP IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES 
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY MAKE IT 
TO THE LOWER 40S...BUT WE WILL SURGE INTO THE 50S ON SUNDAY WITH 
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE WILL BE 
SHALLOW...MODELS DO SUGGEST PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN THE 
WARM SECTOR FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. 
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME WILL BE LIGHT...THEN INCREASING 
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL 
REMAIN ALL RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE START 
OF THE PERIOD. THE BIG QUESTIONS TODAY ARE HOW FAST THE PRECIP WILL 
CUTOFF BEHIND THE FRONT AND IF IT WILL COOL ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE 
RAIN TO SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS.  SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS 
FORECAST WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP GOING MONDAY MORNING.  
THE 00Z GFS HAS THE AREA DRY ON MONDAY BUT THE OTHER GUIDANCE 
INCLUDING THE NEW ECMWF KEEPS THE PRECIP AROUND A LITTLE LONGER 
WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION 
ON TUESDAY KEEPING THE AREA DRY.  WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GET GOING 
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THERE 
COULD BE ENOUGH WARMING AND MOISTENING TO GET ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT 
PRECIP.  WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS BOTH PERIODS.  PRECIP TYPE STILL 
SOMEWHAT UP IN THE AREA.  IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW 
ON TUESDAY NIGHT BUT A SWITCH TO RAIN IS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY.  A 
COLD FRONT WILL SNEAK ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND SOME 
LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR A FEW 
HOURS.  HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY.  
HIGH TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND A 
GOOD 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN WITH KYNG BEING
THE ONLY TAF SITE THAT HAS A CHANCE FOR ANYTHING MORE THAT
FLURRIES. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING WHICH
WILL CUT OFF THE SNOW COMPLETELY.  CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR MOST
AREAS WITH JUST A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR LEFT. THERE COULD BE SOME
PERIODS OF SCT THIS MORNING BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA LATER TODAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
SOME LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AT
KERI. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW AT KCLE AND KYNG
AFT 00Z BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. NW TO W FLOW
WILL BECOME SW TO S BEHIND THE RIDGE. 

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY NE OH/NW PA. NON-VFR
DEVELOPING AGAIN SUNDAY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY WITH -SHRA WITH THE
NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
A RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY.  THE FLOW ON THE 
WESTERN BASIN WILL BECOME SW THIS MORNING AND WITH SPEEDS ALREADY 
COMING DOWN HAVE GONE AHEAD AND REMOVED THE SMALL CRAFT FROM THAT 
AREA.  WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL CRAFT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
NEARSHORE THROUGH 10 AM.  DEPENDING ON HOW FAST WINDS DIE DOWN...THE 
DAY CREW MAY NEED TO EXTEND IT FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.  SOUTH TO 
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED ON THE LAKE TILL A COLD FRONT 
CROSSES THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE LAKE COULD AGAIN NEED A SMALL 
CRAFT FOR MOST OF MONDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE 
LAKE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD CAUSING WINDS TO LESSEN AND TAKE ON A 
EASTERLY COMPONENT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR 
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA









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