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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 131143
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
743 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW 
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE GULF COAST 
SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT 
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ON SATURDAY. 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES WITH THE UPDATE.
AN ICE JAM WAS REPORTED ON THE GRAND RIVER NEAR THE WALNUT
STREET BRIDGE AND A FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF
LAKE COUNTY NEAR PAINESVILLE. AT THIS TIME NO FLOODING PROBLEMS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES
TO SHOW GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTH UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TEXAS. UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW
SHOWERS SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS ILLINOIS WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO
NORTHERN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL EXPAND NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA BETWEEN 18-22Z AS THE THETA-E RIDGE PUSHES NORTH TO LAKE
ERIE. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IN NW PA WHERE THERE WILL BE A LOT
OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
TONIGHT SO DAYTIME POPS ONLY ABOUT 30 PERCENT. NOT EXPECTING RAIN
TO BE VERY HEAVY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO CLOSER TO THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
GENERALLY ONLY EXPECTING UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN
TODAY...MAINLY FROM MARION TO KNOX COUNTIES.

TEMPERATURES HAVE STARTED TO CREEP UP ALREADY IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN 
COUNTIES BUT THE REAL WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER IN 
KENTUCKY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS 
THE BROAD TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT 
OR ABOVE 50 DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA 
TODAY...MAYBE DROPPING BACK A COUPLE DEGREES WHEN THE PRECIPITATION 
BEGINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THIS EVENING AS ENERGY ROUNDS 
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. BY LATER 
TONIGHT LIFT IS ENHANCED ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AHEAD 
OF THE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. RAINS COULD COME TO AN 
END PRETTY QUICKLY IN NW OHIO WITH HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOCUSED 
FROM ABOUT MARION NORTHEAST TOWARDS YOUNGSTOWN. MOSTLY LIKELY QPF 
TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN 
THIS AREA WITH UP TO A HALF INCH AS FAR NORTH AS CLEVELAND AND ONLY 
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS TOWARDS TOLEDO. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH. WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR
NOW WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ICE JAMS IN THE NORTHERN RIVERS. THE
LIQUID CONTRIBUTION FROM THE REMAINING SNOW MELT WILL BE GREATEST
ACROSS NE OHIO/NW PA...COMBINING WITH NEW RAINFALL OF .25-.50.
THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL RISES COULD AGGRAVATE ICE JAMS IN THIS
AREA. WITH MOST OF THE SNOW PACK ALREADY GONE ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF
OF THE AREA AND MINIMAL THREAT OF ICE JAMS...SUSPECT THE SYSTEM
CAN GENERALLY HANDLE THE EXPECTED RAINFALL. PONDING OF WATER IS
LIKELY AND RIVER AND CREEKS WILL BE RUNNING AT HIGH LEVELS...BUT
NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FLOODING AT THIS TIME.

THE FRONT HAS BEEN SPEEDING UP ON SATURDAY WITH PRECIPITATION COMING 
TO AN END SOONER. MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST BETWEEN 
12-18Z SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING A QUICK END TO ANY APPRECIABLE 
PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME CLEARING IN WESTERN OHIO. THIS 
AREA MAY SEE TEMPERATURES REBOUND IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT 
WHILE AREAS FARTHER EAST WILL GENERALLY SEE FALLING TEMPERATURES 
DURING THE AFTERNOON. 

SUNDAY WILL BE A FAIRLY NICE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE 
WEST AND SKIES CLEAR OUT EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN THE SNOWBELT. A LARGE 
SPREAD IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH THE COOLEST AIR ALOFT 
FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE TOWARDS NW PA WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY 
REACH THE UPPER 30S. LOCATIONS IN THE WEST COULD BE NEAR 50 DEGREES 
AGAIN. WARM ADVECTION RAMPS UP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT 
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. HIGHS ON MONDAY COULD REACH 60 DEGREES 
ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE 
AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND JUST A 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FORCING REALLY DIMINISHES AS THE FRONT APPROACHES 
AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO WILL JUST CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS 
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE MERGING TOWARD BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE 
NEXT COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE SEEMS TO BE 
IN FAVOR WITH THE GEM EVEN FASTER THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF. CANNOT 
RULE OUT A LINGERING SNOW/RAIN SHOWER TUESDAY MORNING NE OH/NW PA. 
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES MID 
WEEK BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE ENERGY AND COLDEST AIR WILL STAY 
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE SHOULD BENEFIT FROM A SPRAWLING 
HIGH PRESSURE AREA THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO 
VALLEY. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY 
THEN MODERATING ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE RAIN IS ADVANCING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND WILL SPREAD FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL
LOWER TO MVFR SHORTLY AFTER THE ONSET OF THE RAIN WITH IFR
CEILINGS LIKELY AFTER 3 OR 4 HOURS OF RAIN. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EAST DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. NON VFR MAY
LINGER ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SUNDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH AT LEAST THE 
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WINDS WILL VEER FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY ON THE LAKE TODAY AS HIGH 
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE LOWER 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL HEAD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY 
MORNING WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. 
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND PICK UP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO 
SUNDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL 
INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS 
COULD TOP OUT AROUND 20 KNOTS AFTER EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. 

THE ICE ON THE LAKE WILL CONTINUE TO THIN. MOVEMENT OF THE ICE IS 
MORE LIKELY AS MORE OPEN WATER DEVELOPS AND WINDS INCREASE BEFORE 
AND AFTER EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE WATER RELEASED FROM THE RECENT MELTING
SNOW ALONG WITH SUN AND MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY...ICE HAS BEGUN
TO SHIFT ON AREA RIVERS WITH SOME ICE JAMS BEING REPORTED AND A
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.  WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE ICE JAM THREAT WILL INCREASE.
EXPECTED RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER
OF AN INCH IN THE NORTHWEST NEAR TOLEDO TO AROUND AROUND THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST FROM KNOX TO STARK COUNTIES.
AREAS MOST VULNERABLE WILL BE ALONG RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO LAKE
ERIE...WHICH ALSO REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ003-006>014-
     018>023-033-089.
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK
HYDROLOGY...






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