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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 232040
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
340 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY PUSHING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RAIN SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE 
LIFTS OUT. THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST DOWN SLOPE WIND LESSEN THE RAIN TO
SOME EXTENT ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BUT
EVERYONE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF RAIN/SHOWERS.

THE LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY TONIGHT... 
INCREASING TO 70-80 KNOTS. DOES NOT GET MUCH STRONGER THAN THAT. THE 
WARM AIR ALOFT AND THE RAIN SHOULD DO A GOOD JOB AT KEEPING THE 
LOWER LAYERS STABLE. THE MIXED LAYER IS PROGGED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY 
SHALLOW TONIGHT...ONLY ABOUT 1K. WE CAN PROBABLY KEEP THE SOUTH
DOWN SLOPE WINDS IN CHECK. THAT BEING SAID...WE CAN STILL TAP
30-35 KNOT WINDS EVEN WITH THE STABLE CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT
THAT ROGUE 40 KNOT GUST SOMEWHERE BUT IN GENERAL WE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO STAY UNDER THE WIND ADVISORY/WARNING CRITERIA TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE ALONG THE EAST LAKESHORE FROM EAST OF MENTOR
THROUGH ERIE COUNTY PA. WILL NEED TO HAVE AN ADVISORY THERE
STARTING ABOUT 10 PM. JUST A LITTLE TOO EASY WITH THE DOWN SLOPE
COMPLIMENT TO GET TO 40 KNOTS OR MORE ESPECIALLY IN ERIE COUNTY PA.

TEMPS MAY DROP A FEW DEGREES WITH THE ONSET OF THE RAIN OTHERWISE 
WITH THE STRONG SOUTH FLOW AND RISING DEWPOINTS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE STEADY OR RISE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WIND WILL BE THE CONCERN ON MONDAY. WE START THE DAY WITH A 30-40 
KNOTS AT 925 MB AND 60 KNOTS OR MORE AT 850 MB. AS STATED
ABOVE...THE RAIN WILL CREATE A RELATIVELY STABLE SITUATION IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER EARLY ON...BUT THAT WILL ERODE ESPECIALLY WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. WE TYPICALLY CAN GET 60-70% MIXING IN
THIS TYPE OF SITUATION. THAT WOULD NECESSITATE A WIND ADVISORY...
WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC DESCENT AND LARGE PRESSURE RISES ARRIVING
(+6 TO +8 MB)...A SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION IN LINE WITH THE
MOMENTUM AND MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW....LITTLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...NOT TOO MENTION A FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY FOR
MAXIMUM MIXING...A WIND WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY. I WOULD FEEL
MORE CERTAIN IF THE COLD ADVECTION WAS STRONGER AND QUICKER. WILL
ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH AND KEEP THE OPTIONS OPEN FOR EITHER A
WIND ADVISORY OR A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING.

WARM UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY. HIGHS GENERALLY 55 TO
60 AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

SEASONABLY COLDER AIR WILL SWEEP IN BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES 
WILL LIKELY NOT DROP OFF TOO QUICKLY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN
THE WELL MIXED NATURE OF THE AIR MASS AND THE CHANCE THAT A FEW
PEAKS OF SUNSHINE MIGHT DEVELOP. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT NEAR NORMAL IN
THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S.

THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. NOT MUCH LAKE INFLUENCE 
EXCEPT PERHAPS FROM ASHTABULA TO ERIE WHERE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES MIGHT CLIP THE LAKESHORE. THE STRATOCUMULUS WILL
INCREASE DIURNALLY DURING THE DAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS
IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE WITH A COASTAL LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST 
WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN DEEPENING AND TRACKING INTO NEWFOUNDLAND 
THANKSGIVING DAY.  TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH 
THURSDAY NIGHT.   BEST MOISTURE IN THE WEST SO KEPT LIKELY POPS 
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.  COLDER AIR BEHIND THE CLIPPER DROPS THE 
850MB TEMPS OVER LAKE ERIE TO -14C BY THURSDAY EVENING SO LAKE 
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY...PRIMARILY IN THE SNOWBELT THURSDAY NIGHT.  HIGH 
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY CHOCKING OF LINGERING LAKE 
EFFECT. 

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
LIFTING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVIEST RAINS NOW MOVING
INTO KY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS TO DROP TO IFR WITH THE FRONT. 

WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY PROVIDING A
LULL. MORE SHOWERS IN STORE LATER AS STRONG ARCTIC FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED WITH THE COLD
FRONT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IN -SN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED GALE WARNING FOR LAKE ERIE BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING.  MODELS 
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE OKLAHOMA LOW NORTH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT 
LIFTING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE.  BY DAYBREAK THE THE 925MB 
WINDS INCREASE TO 40-45 KNOTS...NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL MIX DOWN IN 
WAA PATTERN.  STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD AND BEHIND 
THE ARCTIC FRONT.  MODELS MOVE THE FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE DURING 
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  EXPECT 40 KNOT GALES...BUT 45 KNOT GALES NOT OUT 
OF THE QUESTION. THIS STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CREATE A LOW WATER 
SITUATION FOR THE WESTERN BASIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 
GALE FORCE INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH TUESDAY 
NIGHT. 

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR 
     OHZ012-089.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING 
     FOR OHZ011>014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR 
     OHZ003-006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR 
     PAZ001-002.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING 
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ061-
     145>149-165>169.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR 
     LEZ142>144-162>164.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB






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