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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 191730
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
130 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL MOVE 
SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST OF MAINE BY THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL 
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON 
SUNDAY. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO 
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AT THIS
TIME WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH BY THIS EVENING
BEGINNING A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

CLOUDS OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT 
LAKES WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT AND WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY TODAY 
TAKING THE FLOW AWAY FROM THE LAKE.

850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM PLUS 6C THIS MORNING TO PLUS 11C 
BY EVENING. SO...THE WARMER AIR WILL FEEL NOTICEABLE THIS AFTERNOON 
INTO THE EVENING. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 
70S WEST AND UPPER 60S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
BROAD WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND RIDGES CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH 
SATURDAY. WHILE THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE SHOULD REMAIN IN A 
WARMING FAIR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN 
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THEN TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THIS 
EVENING. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION 
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK WARM 
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 
THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL 
PUSH EAST INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS REMAIN 
FAIRLY DRY SO QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WE CAN GET IN HERE TO 
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. TIMING OF THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PUSHING A 
BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST TO 
LEAVE MENTION OF AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN 
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THIS 
IS DUE IN PART TO THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP AND WINDS INCREASING TO 
AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH AFTER DARK. WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES 
PLACE IN EARNEST SATURDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT AND INCREASING 
SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE AXIS EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT 
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THE 00Z NAM AND 
ECMWF ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING AND DO NOT SHOW 
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING UNTIL THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. DESPITE 
THIS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON 
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BE DRIVEN BY LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING 
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT 
LAKES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR NW OHIO AND LAKE ERIE 
DURING THE EVENING...EXPANDING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. INCREASED POPS 
TO 50-70 PERCENT AND RAISED LOWS A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE SLOWER 
FRONTAL PUSH. DEEP MOISTURE QUICKLY PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON 
SUNDAY MORNING BUT ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE 
AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONT AND FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. 
THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN NW OHIO FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS 
TO RE-DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY BUT LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR 
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN NE OHIO/NW PA. 

850MB COLD POOL WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND NW PA SUNDAY NIGHT 
AND MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY BRIEF WINDOW FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN 
SHOWERS BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE LAKE LATE MONDAY. 
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S IN PENNSYLVANIA ON 
MONDAY WHILE PORTIONS OF NW OHIO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SUN AND HAVE 
TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 60S. 

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY 
WITH THE AIR MASS MODERATING THROUGH MID-WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL 
RETURN AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND WILL MOVE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
EASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING THE EVENING. A LAKE
BREEZE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET IT TO
FAR INLAND. THE BEST CHANCES OF IT OCCURRING WILL BE AT KERI BUT
WILL MONITOR KCLE FOR A BRIEF LATE INFLUENCE. 

OTHERWISE A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE BY EVENING WITH
ONLY SOME THIN HIGH CLOUD COVER PASSING OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND BECOME GUSTY. WIND GUSTS
IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WILL BE COMMON.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
THEN NON-VFR CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC BUILDS 
EASTWARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT 
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS ON 
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY REACH 20-25 KNOTS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE THE 
SHIFTING TO WESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT. A SMALL 
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER 
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY...THEN EXPANDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON 
TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KEC






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