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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 241143
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
743 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND 
OVERNIGHT. BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL TRACK 
EAST ACROSS OHIO ON FRIDAY. A SECONDARY LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST 
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD AS FAR EAST AS CLEVELAND AND YOUNGSTOWN SO
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TODAY. LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AND NEAR LAKE ERIE WHILE
NORTHWEST OHIO WILL MAINTAIN A MORE EASTERLY WIND. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS STARTING THE DAY OFF TO OUR WEST AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING AROUND THE RIDGE WITHIN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. OBSERVATIONS ACROSS INDIANA ALSO
INDICATE A CLOUD DECK IN 8-10K RANGE WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
REACHING THE GROUND. THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS OHIO
THIS MORNING THEN LIFT NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING OFF COOL IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT
ON TEMPERATURES TODAY AND LOWERED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES FOR
NEARLY ALL AREAS...TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S NEAR THE LAKE TO NEAR 60
INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT THEN MOVE EAST 
ACROSS OHIO ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE 
LOW WITH HEALTHY THETA-E ADVECTION INTO NORTHWEST OHIO BETWEEN 
06-12Z. THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE 
PRECIPITATION WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM SO DELAYED PRECIP 
CHANCES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE 
FORECAST AREA. MOST AREAS WILL SEE SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH 
LIFTS THROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS. INSTABILITY IS 
MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW BUT 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED. WITH THE 
SLOWER DEPARTURE TO THE SHOWERS HAVE LOWERED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES 
FOR FRIDAY WHICH ALIGNS WELL WITH GUIDANCE. 

SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST QUICKLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH JUST A 
LOW POP LINGERING IN NE OHIO/NW PA. JUST AS THE INITIAL LOW IS 
PULLING AWAY...A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE 
AREA ON SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION IS LIKELY 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY MORNING SO INLAND AREAS COULD STILL 
REACH 60 DEGREES BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH OFF THE LAKE. HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY. 
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE 
PLAINS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT HEAR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER 
RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SO LOWERED POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE 
IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VARYING DEGREES OF BLOCKING WILL OCCUR IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. 
THIS WILL MEAN VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL 
LOW WOBBLES FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE 
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. IT APPEARS WE WILL BE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF 
THE LOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY 
CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH 
THURSDAY THE REGION WILL NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN A 12 TO 16 DEGREE 
DIURNAL RANGE. SO MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 
SEASONAL AVERAGES RANGING FROM LOWS IN THE 40S TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 
50S TO AROUND 60.  

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE 
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEYOND THIS TIME IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME 
THE PIECES OF JET ENERGY THAT WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL 
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ONSHORE FLOW AT KERI AND POSSIBLY AT KCLE
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS MAY
BECOME GUSTY OFF THE WEST END OF LAKE ERIE BY AFTERNOON AND HAVE
MENTIONED A FEW GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS FOR THE TOLEDO AREA.
OTHERWISE MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE BUT DO
NOT BELIEVE IT WILL DROP BELOW 8000 FEET.

CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS MOVING
INTO NW OHIO TOWARD SUNRISE ON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WEST AND
FRIDAY ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EAST OF LAKE ERIE TODAY. THIS 
WILL ALLOW FOR AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY. WAVES MAY 
BUILD TO 1 TO 3 FEET BY THIS EVENING....ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND WEST. 
SINCE THERE WILL BE A LONG FETCH INTO THE WESTERN BASIN LATER SHIFTS 
WILL NEED TO MONITOR WAVE HEIGHTS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST 
ACROSS THE LAKES ON FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LAKE. 
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST FRONT BUT THEN 
NORTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY. A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS LAKE ERIE BY 
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. ON MONDAY 
THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC/LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN






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