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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 231557
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1157 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO 
THIS WEEKEND AS IT SINKS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL 
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES 
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST 
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG CONTINUES TO BURN OFF OVER FINDLAY TO MARION LINE AS DAYTIME
MIXING SLOWLY ERODES THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WAS CENTERED OVER SW OHIO WHICH IS SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE AND
MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS IN THE REGION. SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN LAKESHORE. OVERALL LOOKING AT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 50S...WITH A FEW SITES TOUCHING
THE UPPER 50S. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL 
MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND WORK TO BREAK DOWN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR WILL BE IN 
PLACE AS THIS SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO 
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE RIDGE. THERE IS A 
LAYER OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE LOW LEVELS AND CLOUDS WILL RANGE 
FROM PARTLY TO BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLOUDY. MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LEAN TO SEE 
ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE ON FRIDAY SO WILL CARRY A DRY 
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN NW PA TO LOW 
60S IN THE WEST.   
  
THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL 
ROUND THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND CARVE OUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION RAMPS UP ON 
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 
MID 60S FOR ALL BUT NE OHIO/NW PA. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWS ON 
ITS HEELS AND PUSHES SOUTH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY A NARROW 
RIBBON OF MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND WILL LIMIT ANY 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NW PA ON SATURDAY...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY 
NIGHT. MODELS SHOW 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO ON SUNDAY SO 
WILL LEAN TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST WITH CLOUDS 
DEVELOPING OFF LAKE ERIE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 
LOW 50S IN NW PA...TAPERING UP TO NEAR 60 IN NW OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRANSITION 
FROM A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. MOST OF THE 
MODELS AND ESPECIALLY THE ENSEMBLES BRING A WEAKENING FRONT ACROSS 
THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 
EXCEPTION IS THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WHICH DEVELOPS A CUT OFF LOW 
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER. THE 
FORECAST WILL BE WARM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH 
HIGHS AROUND 70. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY LATER TUESDAY 
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY 
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY 
BACK DOWN TOWARD 60 BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNLESS IT 
STAYS CLOUDY AND RAINY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW AND SHOULD BURN OFF MID TO LATE
MORNING. PATCHES OF MVFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SUBSIDENCE EVAPORATES MOST OF THE CLOUD
COVER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
VFR WITH PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PERHAPS
LINGERING ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTH WINDS WHICH HAD BEEN UP EARLIER IN THE NIGHT SHOULD 
DECREASE STEADILY THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORY EXPIRE BUT THE LAKE WILL BE CHOPPY MUCH OF THE DAY EAST OF 
THE ISLANDS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE 
EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAKENING 
FRONT FOR FRIDAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH WIND WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY 
BUT A STRONGER FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY AND THE 
GRADIENT WILL BE MUCH STRONGER BY SATURDAY MORNING AND BOTH WINDS 
AND WAVES WILL EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SATURDAY. 
THE WIND MAY NOT DROP OFF MUCH ON SUNDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS ON THE 
WESTERN BASIN AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS 
WILL COME BACK AROUND FROM THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK






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