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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 291709
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1209 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN AND INTO ONTARIO CANADA TODAY. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING...AND SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVERHEAD FOR SATURDAY AND THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE SET TO TRACK
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

HAVE EXTENDED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER THE CAK-YNG CANTON AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN THAT AREA. THE PRECIPITATION IS MAKING STEADY
PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION TOWARD THE MIDDLE
OF THE AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW IS LIFTING NORTHEAST NEAR TOL
WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO-INDIANA BORDER.
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING IN THE SMALL WARM SECTOR
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. RADAR SHOWS MORE PRECIPITATION
FORMING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS AS SEEN BY
THE IR SATELLITE IMAGE AND RADAR MOSAIC. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS
IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH MINOR CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...


HAVE TRIMMED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM THE WESTERN COUNTIES
AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED EAST AND WARMER AIR
HAS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FROM TOL TO FDY AND MNN. ROAD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S TOO. RATHER
STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS OCCURRING ALOFT AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN CENTRAL INDIANA.

HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY TO REFLECT THE WARMING ALOFT
AND ALSO THE WARM AIR CURRENTLY JUST NEAR THE FRONT OVER INDIANA
WHERE READINGS ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THAT MILD AIR
WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. FARTHER EAST IN THE CWA
LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LIMIT WARMING BUT WE STILL
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. CURRENT
ROADWAY TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 30 TO 33 DEGREE RANGE SO UNTREATED
SURFACES CAN STILL ACCUMULATE ICE. WITH INITIALLY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ALOFT IS BEING EVAPORATED BEFORE
REACHING THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TWO RE-ENFORCING SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL
PERPETUATE THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST OH/NW PA. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THEREFORE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE SNOWBELT
COUNTIES. CUYAHOGA SUMMIT AND PORTAGE WILL HAVE TO MONITORED FOR
THE POSSIBLE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT.
FOR NOW HAVE 1 TO 3 FORECAST. HAVE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
AIR BY SEVERAL HOURS TONIGHT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WAITING
UNTIL LATE EVENING FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 20S. 

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE TEENS BY MORNING AND
STAY THAT WAY OR FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
BRING WIND CHILL VALUES TO NEAR ZERO BY DAWN FRIDAY AND GO BELOW
ZERO FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SOME
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SNOWBELT FRIDAY WITH
LAKE ENHANCEMENT UNTIL THE RIDGE CAN DO ITS JOB AT SUPPRESSING THE
SHOWERS FRIDAY EVENING. ONLY LIGHT...LESS THAN A COUPLE INCHES
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY FOR THE SNOWBELT. OTHERS WILL BE DRY BUT
CONTINUE TO BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR SATURDAY
WITH FAIR...BUT COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE BEGINNINGS OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A SYSTEM THAT WILL
BE COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE STORM SYSTEM ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FURTHER 
SOUTH THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THIS ACTUALLY SEEMS REASONABLE AND SHOULD 
TAKE THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL FURTHER SOUTH. IT NOW APPEARS THAT IT 
COULD BE SIMILAR TO AN EVENT THAT PRODUCED 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA LAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SO AT 
WORST CASE IT APPEARS THAT AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. HOWEVER WE 
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL RUNS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS TO 
PINPOINT THE TRACK OF THIS STORM. 

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO 
THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY. MODELS THEN STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF 
YET ANOTHER CLIPPER STORM SYSTEM THAT COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 
TUESDAY EVENING BUT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY. HOPEFULLY 
DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME CLEAR OVER THE WEEKEND. 

IT WILL BE COLD THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH HIGHS RANGING 
FROM THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S AT MOST LOCATIONS. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR 
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING LOWS MAY ONCE AGAIN DIP BELOW ZERO 
AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY.
EXPECT TO SEE A WINTRY MIX DEVELOP THIS MORNING WITH FREEZING
DRIZZLE/RAIN AND ICE PELLETS. THE MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD
TRANSITION TO ALL LIQUID BY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER EXTREME NE
OHIO INTO NW PA MAY KEEP THE MIXED PRECIPITATION MUCH LONGER AND
MAY NOT CHANGE OVER AT ALL. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KNOTS AT MOST
LOCATIONS BUT THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPING AREAS NEAR KERI MAY GUST
AROUND 35 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
WILL BE COMMON. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE TIME THAT THE RAIN WILL
TRANSITION BACK TO ALL SNOW AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE TO
IFR LEVELS. THERE WILL BE A HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW WITH THE COLDER
AIR WITH ACCUMULATIONS AT ALL TAF SITES. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
5 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA.

.OUTLOOK...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST
FRIDAY. MORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY NIGHT IN
SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS WINDS WILL 
REMAIN UNDER 25 KNOTS IN THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER AS THE 
LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASS THIS EVENING WINDS WILL SHIFT TO 
THE NORTHWEST AND WILL LIKELY GET CLOSE TO 30 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS. 
WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE 
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN MOVES OVER OHIO. THE 
NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH FOR SUNDAY INTO 
MONDAY WHICH WILL KEEP NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS GOING INTO MONDAY 
BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NEAR THE OHIO RIVER 
VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING.   

THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED BUT THE STRONGER WINDS TODAY INTO 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY CAUSE ICE FLOES OR AT LEAST CAUSE ISSUES WITH 
ANY CHANNELS CREATED BY THE ICE CUTTERS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ012>014-
     023-089.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     OHZ021-022-032-033.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN






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