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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 041754
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
154 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN TODAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FROM THE MIDWEST TO EASTERN CANADA WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT TODAY.
OUTFLOW FROM THE MORNING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EAST MAY STILL BE A 
ACTOR FOR THIS AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS THAT HEAT UP THE FASTEST
TODAY SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
BELIEVE THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA BUT WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE LAKE BOUNDARY
ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. NE INDIANA IN NW OHIO ARE ALREADY
SEEING SOME STRONG CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD DRIFT
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

KCLE GOT TO 90 YESTERDAY AND SEE NO REASON WHY TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER TODAY AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME. KCAK HAS BEEN
89 OR 90 THE PAST THREE DAYS AS WELL. WILL GO WITH A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. UPPER 80S LIKELY MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BUT IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE REGION TO DISSIPATE.
EXPECT ONGOING PRECIP THIS EVENING BUT WILL TRY TO DRY THINGS OUT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON SATURDAY AS A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD. BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY AND NIGHTS
STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR WEEKEND CONVECTION. WILL TRY
FOR DRY DAYS SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WILL PROBABLY STILL SEE A FEW
POP UPS EACH DAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT
OPINIONS ON WHEN THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER THAN
THE GFS. ALREADY HAD CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW HALF OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND IT IS PROBABLY PRUDENT TO LEAVE THEM IN EVEN
THOUGH BETTER CHANCES WILL OCCUR IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
PERSISTENCE THE WAY TO GO FOR TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO START 
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BELOW NORMAL BY 
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A BROAD 
TROUGH OVER THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY THAT SLOWLY MOVES EAST 
AND FLATTENS THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A STALLED FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE TO START 
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE GFS REMAINS FASTER THAN THE CANADIAN/ECMWF 
WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE SOME SPURIOUS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DRIVING THE 
FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RELATIVELY 
DRY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND OPTED TO KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW IN THE 
EAST ON TUESDAY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOWER MODELS. CHANCES FOR 
PRECIPITATION INCREASING DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT 
LAKES WITH THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY 
THURSDAY. SUSPECT THERE WILL BE GOOD COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AT 
LEAST ONE OF THE PERIODS BUT STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN EVOLUTION 
TO GO MORE THAN CHANCE POPS. 

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY...DROP BACK 
TO THE LOWER 80S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON 
WEDNESDAY AND SETTLE INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWER HUMIDITY TO 
END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER TOUGH SET OF TAFS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU DECK FROM THE
REMNANT MCS FROM THIS MORNING IS MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
IMPACTING MAINLY CAK AND YNG. CLEARING SKIES TO THE WEST HAS
ALLOWED FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN INDIANA AND
EXTREME WESTERN OHIO. OUTFLOW FROM THIS COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...COULD SPARK
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD IMPACT A MAJORITY OF THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 02Z
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

GIVEN A SIMILAR AIRMASS TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...ADDED MOISTURE
FROM RECENT RAINFALL...AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...EXPECTING MVFR
FOG TO FORM AT ALL TAF SITES AND FOR SOME PATCHY IFR FOG TO ALSO
BE POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED
BY SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL VEER TO SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. WITH HIGH 
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...EXPECT TO SEE LAKE BREEZES 
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND TO POSSIBLY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE ON 
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE 
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING 
SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...KEC



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