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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 191829
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
129 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.  HIGH 
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA 
LATE TODAY.  THE HIGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THIS WEEKEND AND MOVE 
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TROUGH NEAR A MEADVILLE PA TO MFD LINE. NORTH OF THAT PRECIP HAS
EITHER ENDED OR CHANGED OVER TO ALL SNOW. SO ENDED ADVISORY FOR
COUNTIES NORTH OF THAT LINE.

ORIGINALS DISCUSSION...
REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS FAR SOUTH AS KNOX COUNTY SO EXPANDED 
THE ADVISORY WEST TO AN ERIE COUNTY TO KNOX COUNTY LINE.  THE TROUGH 
IS JUST SOUTH OF THE ERIE SHORELINE AND PRECIPITATION IS GRADUALLY 
CHANGING TO SNOW BEHIND THE TROUGH. DO NOT THINK THE TROUGH WILL
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 6 AM SO EXTENDED THE ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM

MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HIGH...BUT 
THING SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER 
THE AREA.   JUDGING FROM THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO NOT THINK WE WILL 
SEE MUCH SUN TODAY.   SO LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET WITH TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE MID 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HIGH ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES THIS WEEKEND THEN OFF 
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY.   THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS 
AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.  TREND FOR BOTH GFS AND ECMWF FOR 
EARLY NEXT WEEK IS FOR NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DROP OUT OF 
CANADA AND MOVE INTO IOWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH MOISTURE MOVING 
UP FROM THE GULF.  BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT 
RAIN.  FOR NOW WILL JUST GO WITH CHANCE POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO 
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM.  ALL 
ADVERTISE A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BUT 
DIFFERENCES REMAIN AT THE SURFACE.  THERE HAS ALSO BEEN LITTLE RUN 
TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE 00Z ECMWF NOW SHOWING A VERY STRONG LOW 
MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO WHAT 
IT HAD A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO.  TO GIVE CREDIT WHERE CREDIT IS 
DUE...THE GFS HAS HAD A LITTLE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH A 
SECONDARY LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST.  THIS SOLUTION ALSO BRINGS 
THE COLD AIR INTO THE AREA A LITTLE FASTER.  GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES 
WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD BRUSH THE FORECAST WITH LIKELY POPS FROM 
TUESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.  IT APPEARS MOST OF THIS 
WILL BE RAIN WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT.  BY THAT TIME IT WILL BE ALSO STARTING TO DRY OUT.  WILL 
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY.  EXPECT THAT THE MODELS WILL 
EVENTUALLY MERGE ON A SOLUTION BUT TILL THEN THINGS REMAIN UP IN THE 
AIR.  HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION BUT SOME CLEARING IS
SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE TOWARD ERI WITH THE NORTHERN
EDGE NEAR DTW. THIS CLEARING MAY SPREAD SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE BUT
PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW. LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS MOSTLY ENDED AND
LOW CLOUD DECKS HAVE LIFTED SLIGHTLY. GENERALLY CIGS RANGE FROM 1500
TO 2500 FT WITH VFR VSBYS. INTO THE EVENING OVERCAST SKIES MAY
BECOME BROKEN AND LOCALLY SCATTERED NEAR TOL BUT UNCERTAINITY WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING IS HIGH. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE.

LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO SATURDAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY
CLEARING. 

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
AS EXPECTED WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.  
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH 
OF THE LAKE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND 
VARIABLE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  BY LATE SUNDAY THE 
FLOW WILL TAKE ON A LIGHT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.  SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN 
BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH THE FLOW BECOMING SOUTH AGAIN ON TUESDAY 
AND INCREASING SOME AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...KUBINA






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