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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 160933
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
533 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A 
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT 
LAKES WEDNESDAY EVENING AND FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE 
REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST TO MAINE 
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER 
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATING A BIT EARLY. A LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE LAKE SHORE WITH MORE TO FOLLOW OVER THE LAKE JUST AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. I WILL UP THE POPS FOR NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA FOR THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES WITH THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO INTO WEST CENTRAL 
PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH 
JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL SLIP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS 
MORNING. SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES HAVE OCCURRED JUST 
NORTH OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A 
FEW SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST 
PENNSYLVANIA. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SETTLE DOWN NEAR THE DEW 
POINT TEMPERATURE IN SOME LOCATIONS AND POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT SOME 
FOG COULD DEVELOP THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE FOG IN CASE 
WE NEED TO HOIST A HEADLINE IF THE FOG BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. AS 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION...FURTHER DRYING SHOULD 
TAKE PLACE AND ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO BREAK AND FOR SOME 
SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM FROM YESTERDAY STRUGGLED TO MAKE IT 
OUT OF THE 50S FOR HIGHS. IF WE GET THE EXPECTED SUN...THIS WILL 
HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 60S. OTHERWISE...MY FORECAST 
HIGHS MAY BE A TAD ON THE HIGH SIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND
VIRTUALLY DISSIPATES OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS
FEATURE WILL REFLECT TO THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES HELPING TO
AMPLIFY THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
MEANWHILE...THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SHIFT EAST FORCING
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BY SATURDAY.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY...WARM 
AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AND THE 
MEAN FLOW INCREASES IN THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT. UNFORTUNATELY...THE 
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER 
AIR MOVES TOWARD THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

GRADUALLY WARMED TEMPERATURES UP THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DECIDED TO 
GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE BY FRIDAY IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION 
PATTERN. OTHERWISE...STAYED RELATIVELY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE REST OF THE 
PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS SATURDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF CLOSE IN 
SHOWING A WEAK UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. AT THE 
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO 
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE WESTERN LAKES 
WITH A WARM FRONT TO NEW YORK. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST 
FRONT THE LOW. AM THINKING WE SHOULD GET A DRY DAY WITH TEMPS CLOSE 
TO NORMAL WITH THE FOCUS OF ANY WX WEST OF THE AREA. SATURDAY NIGHT 
THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA...REACHING NWRN OHIO BY 12Z 
SUNDAY. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA IN SSW PREFRONTAL 
FLOW...WILL BRING A CHANCE POP TO THE REGION SATURDAY 
NIGHT...CONTINUING SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  SUNDAY 
EVENING SHOULD BEGIN WITH SHOWERS EAST BUT FOLLOWING THE ECMWF...IT 
SHOULD DRY OUT OVERNIGHT. MAIN CONCERN FOR MONDAY WILL BE LAKE 
EFFECT SHOWERS. THE ECMWF SHOWS A RETURNING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FILLING IN ACROSS THE 
REGION. WHILE HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN BELIEVE 
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR 850MB TEMPS OF +2 TO +4C TO 
GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE TRADITIONAL LAKE EFFECT AREAS OF NERN 
OHIO AND NWRN PA SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN PLACE. TUESDAY...LIKELY 
ENOUGH DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE TO END PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN CDFNT NOW SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE TROF JUST TO OUR
NW. POST FRONTAL RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA WITH RAIN
HAVING ENDED NORTHWEST. CONDITIONS WIDESPREAD IFR DUE TO BOTH
CIGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN/MIST/FOG. SATELLITE SHOWS A CLEARING
PATCH WORKING INTO NWRN OHIO WHICH HAS CAUSED VISIBILITIES TO DROP
TO LIFR IN INCREASINGLY DENSE FOG. EXPECT TRENDS TO PERSIST
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH CONDITIONS LIFTING TO MVFR/VFR 16-18Z AND
VFR AFTER 18Z AS HIGHER PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE IN.

OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE LAKE TODAY THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE.  THURSDAY THE 
HIGH MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST FORCING NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW AT 10 TO 
20 KNOTS ON THE LAKE.  THIS SHOULD GET WAVES INCREASING TO AT LEAST 
3 FEET CENTRAL AND WEST. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL 
APPROACH FROM THE WEST...EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY. 
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN FROM EAST AND SOUTHEAST FRIDAY TO 
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS BUILDING WAVES TO 4 
FEET.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK






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