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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 301704
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1204 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY WHILE
A TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEAST SATURDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT WILL SINK INTO
NORTHERN OH/NW PA ON SUNDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTHERN
KY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRIER AIR MAKING IT'S IMPACT ON THE SNOW WITH COVERAGE WANING. THE
ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1 PM. SNOW WILL CONTINUE AS
IT APPEARS SOME LAKE HURON BANDS ARE SUPPORTING ONGOING LIGHT
SNOW. DUE TO THE DRYING WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW FOR THE AFTERNOON DESPITE ONGOING SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING THEIR DECENT AS THE COLDER
AIR FILTERS IN. BLUSTERY WINDS ARE PRODUCING WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO -5F...COLDEST IN THE EAST. CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP
IN THE WEST AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A REDUCING IN CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION...THE COLDEST AIR AT H850 IS MOVING OVER THE
EASTERN BASIN AT THIS TIME. THE INCREASED LAPSE RATES ARE
TRIGGERING SOME HEAVIER SNOW BURSTS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT WITH SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITES UNDER A MILE. COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCHES...LOCALLY 3 INCHES IN NW PA. BLUSTERY WINDS GUSTING 25 TO
30 MPH ALSO REDUCING VISIBILITIES. HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SNOWBELT THROUGH 1 PM AT WHICH TIME THE
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN WILL DIMINISH THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
THE SNOW. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME STRAY LAKE EFFECT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DUE TO THE COLER AIR OVER THE LAKE...BUT DO NOT SEE ACCUMULATES
LIKELY AFTER 1 PM. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY PEAKED IN MANY
LOCATIONS AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVING IN DROPS TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS. LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST
AREAS...COLDER IN NW PA. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WE ARE
LOOKING AT WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 0F TO -5F FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT...SO WIND CHILLS SHOULD
STAY CLEAR OF ADVISORY CRITERIA BEYOND THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TONIGHT. VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED AS THE REMAINING STRATUS ACROSS THE EAST SCATTERS...BUT
MID/HIGH CLOUDS REACH OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT
UPON THE SKY COVERAGE TONIGHT. WITH LIGHTER WINDS...ANY BREAKS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SEVERAL DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP. HAVE LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS.

THE DAYTIME SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY AS WE STILL ARE
INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE...BUT EYES WILL BE LOOKING UPSTREAM
FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY. SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30
DEGREES FROM NW PA TO FINDLAY. 

FOR SUNDAYS SYSTEM...THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN
FACTOR IN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. FIRST TO ARRIVE THOUGH WILL BE A
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
NIGHT...REACHING NORTHERN OH/NW PA SUNDAY MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF
THIS FRONT BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE SOUTHERN LOW HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT. THE TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN LOW HAS VARIED CONSIDERABLY
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS OF RUNS AND AFTER A SOUTHWARD TREND
YESTERDAY HAS SHIFTED NORTH SLIGHTLY. GFS ENSEMBLES CLUSTER THE
LOW ANYWHERE FROM NEAR COLUMBUS TO NORTHERN KY. TIMING IS FAIRLY
CLOSE THOUGH WITH THIS POSITION BY 00Z MON/SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE
RAISED PRECIP CHANCES EVEN HIGHER AS IT WILL PRECIPITATE ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A SYSTEM THAT PRODUCES
THE MOST SNOWFALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. 30.

AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR GETS DRAWN BACK
TO THE LOCAL AREA. WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER...BUT OPERATIONAL RUN GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SINGLE DIGITS
BY MONDAY MORNING. WILL GO A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THE
PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN EITHER
DIRECTION. HIGH PRESSURE...FAIR WEATHER...DIMINISHING WINDS...BUT
COLD DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD AND THE COLD AIRMASS
IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DRIFTING TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON 
TUESDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO 
WEDNESDAY. THESE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO 
SLOWLY WARM FROM THE 20S ON TUESDAY TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 30 
ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS 
THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO 
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. COOLER BY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS 
DIPPING BACK INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. GUSTS 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE MORNING THEN DECREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AREAS
OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW HAVE REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS. THE IFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EAST OF A LINE
FROM KCLE TO KMFD. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL END BY 14Z. CEILINGS WILL
THEN SLOWLY LIFT AND ATTEMPT TO BREAK UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL OCCUR EARLIEST ACROSS NW OHIO. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET. MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN
SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE 
AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE LAKE TONIGHT AND REACH THE MIDDLE 
ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE NEXT SOUTHERN 
JET STREAM STORM SYSTEM TO TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER 
VALLEY. THIS WILL ASSIST IN INCREASING NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 25 KNOTS. HIGH 
PRESSURE MOVES BACK OVER OHIO BY MONDAY EVENING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 
BECOMING LIGHT WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     OHZ013-014-023-089.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON/OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN






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