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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 060243
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
943 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY 
THEN A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LAKES 
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER 
OHIO INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL CLOUDS QUICKLY DISSIPATED AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO SETTLE DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AT THIS TIME. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES TO PLAY CATCHUP WITH THE FALLING TEMPERATURES.
UPDATED THE CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI TO ALLOW SW WINDS TO 
START UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS WILL MODERATE ALL THE WAY INTO 
THE LOW TO MAYBE MID 20S. AN UPPER S/W TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP SE 
ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS BUT LOW LEVELS 
STAY DRY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY FLURRIES TO OCCUR. A LITTLE MORE LOW 
LEVEL MOISTURE DOES ARRIVE FRI NIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES OR 
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP OVER LAKE ERIE AND THE SNOWBELT LATER IN THE 
NIGHT DUE TO THE WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE 
AREA LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT WITH THE SECOND FRONT ON TRACK FOR SUN 
NIGHT. SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD GET INTO A 30 TO 35 RANGE SAT AND 
POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ON SUN. TEMPS ALOFT APPEAR TO STAY 
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ON SAT AND PROBABLY JUST SNOW ON SUN ALSO. THE 
BEST THREATS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE AROUND SAT EVE WITH THE FIRST 
FRONT AND SUN NIGHT WITH THE SECOND FRONT WITH THE PRIMARY AREA OF 
THREAT FOR THE NE HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA IN THE 
LONG TERM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND 
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED. 

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 40 ON MONDAY THEN 
WARMING WELL INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE 
IS CONCERN THAT IT COULD BE COOLER OVER THE THICKER SNOW PACK ACROSS 
NE OHIO INTO NW PA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FEW PATCHES OF DIURNAL CUMULUS AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS STILL TO
GET RID OF. A SWATH OF 025BKN-025OVC SHOULD PASS OVER KERI THIS
EVENING. A FEW PATCHES OF BKN035 OVER NORTHWEST OHIO SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY 01Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. VFR
ELSEWHERE AND CLEAR EVERYWHERE BY LATE EVENING. VERY COLD TONIGHT
WITH THICK FROST IN MANY AREAS. THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE EAST OF
THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE SURFACE WIND COMING AROUND FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ON FRIDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN VFR.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT BUT WILL BE NUDGED 
SOUTHWARD AS A CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY INTO 
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY 
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL SEND ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER 
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...MULLEN






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