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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 130549
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
149 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST TO OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST
WILL STREAM NORTH INTO THE REGION AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLOUDS A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING IN SO TWEAKED OVERNIGHT TEMPS DOWN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE JET STREAM SPREAD INTO THE AREA MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT BUT INCREASING CLOUDS LATER WILL STABILIZE
TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING FROM KNOX COUNTY TO FDY TO THE UPPER 20S
IN NW PA. GFS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE WITH SLIGHT
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A MILD AND WET FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
IMPROVING AND COOLER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.

STILL EXPECT A LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EVENT TO AFFECT THE REGION
STARTING FRIDAY MORNING AND EXTENDING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM
ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE NORTHWEST NEAR TOL TO AROUND AN
INCH IN SOUTHEAST FROM KNOX TO STARK COUNTIES. THE SUITE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE IS RATHER CONSISTENT SO CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL ESTIMATES
IS FAIRLY HIGH. THE ONSET OF RAIN FRIDAY WILL HELP KEEP A LID ON
MAX TEMPERATURES AND THERE MAY BE A POCKET OF RAIN COOLED AIR OVER
THE SOUTHWEST FROM MNN TO KNOX. FARTHER NORTHEAST THE LATER
ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN WILL ALLOW READINGS TO CLIMB TO NEAR 50.

ALOFT THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE
GULF COAST AND WEAKEN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER AIR ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL BE SWEPT OUT BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING BUT THE NORTHERN SHORT
WAVE MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE SNOWBELT.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AND WARMING ALOFT. HAVE USED MAV GUIDANCE WITH MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH MOVING A FRONT THROUGH THE 
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. I PUT SOME RESOLUTION IN AND KEPT THE POPS MAINLY 
AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND LINGER SOME PRECIPITATION ON 
TUESDAY. ON THE EDGE ABOUT THAT...THE BEST CHANCE COULD BE TUESDAY 
MORNING. ON THURSDAY A DIFFUSE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES IN ACCORDING 
TO THE GFS...WHILE THE ECMWF IS STILL DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS 
THE AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND KEPT IT DRY FOR THE TIME BEING UNTIL 
TRENDS BECOME CLEARER.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL AT LEAST FOR THE HIGHS 
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NNE TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
LOWER AND RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL LIKELY LOWER
TO MVFR AND THEN IFR SHORTLY AFTER THE ONSET OF THE RAIN. 

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. NON VFR MAY
LINGER ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SUNDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH AT LEAST THE 
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AS A LOW 
PRESSURE AREA HEADS TOWARDS LAKE ERIE. AFTER THE LOW AND THE 
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT LESS 
THAN 30 KNOTS SUSTAINED. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE LAKE 
MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THE SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS 
THAN 30 KNOTS SUSTAINED.

THE ICE ON THE LAKE WILL CONTINUE TO THIN. MOVEMENT OF THE ICE IS 
MORE LIKELY AS MORE OPEN WATER DEVELOPS AND WHEN THE WINDS GET 
STRONGER BEFORE AND AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE WATER RELEASED FROM THE RECENT MELTING
SNOW ALONG WITH SUN AND MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY...ICE HAS BEGUN
TO SHIFT ON AREA RIVERS WITH SOME ICE JAMS BEING REPORTED AND A
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.  WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN
FRIDAY/SATURDAY THE ICE JAM THREAT WILL INCREASE. EXPECTED
RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH
IN THE NORTHWEST NEAR TOLEDO TO AROUND AN INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST
FROM KNOX TO STARK COUNTIES. AREAS MOST VULNERABLE WILL BE ALONG
RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO LAKE ERIE...WHICH ALSO REMAINS MOSTLY ICE
COVERED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ003-006>014-
     018>023-033-089.
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...DJB/LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KIELTYKA
HYDROLOGY...






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