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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 231102
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
702 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO 
THIS WEEKEND AS IT SINKS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL 
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES 
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST 
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPANDING INTO NW OHIO WITH VISIBILITIES
BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1/4 MILE REPORTED BETWEEN FINDLAY AND MARION. WEB
CAMERAS AND OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING PRETTY GOOD VISIBILITIES IN
THE TOLEDO AREA. FOG MAY CONTINUE TO EXPAND FOR ABOUT THE NEXT
HOUR BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO START IMPROVING WITH SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD FIELD AND HOURLY
TEMPERATURES WITH THE UPATE. 


LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE NEW ENGLAND 
COAST TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE REGION. WE ARE 
STARTING THE MORNING OFF WITH SOME DEGREE OF TROUGHING OVER EASTERN 
LAKE ERIE BUT THIS WILL WEAKEN FAIRLY QUICKLY. SKIES ARE CLEAR 
NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN EXPANDING AS 
THIS DRIER AIR SHIFTS SOUTH. THE CLOUDS THAT REMAIN HAVE BEEN 
MOVING SOUTHWEST AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. EXPECT PARTLY 
CLOUDY SKIES TO HANG ON THE LONGEST IN NE OHIO (AKRON-YOUNGSTOWN) 
WITH SUBSIDENCE WINNING OUT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN NW OHIO. 
DESPITE THE NORTHERLY FLOW...THE AIRMASS MODERATES ABOUT 4C AT 925 
FROM YESTERDAY WITH QUITE A BIT MORE SUN HELPING HIGHS TO REACH THE 
MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL 
MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND WORK TO BREAK DOWN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR WILL BE IN 
PLACE AS THIS SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO 
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE RIDGE. THERE IS A 
LAYER OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE LOW LEVELS AND CLOUDS WILL RANGE 
FROM PARTLY TO BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLOUDY. MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LEAN TO SEE 
ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE ON FRIDAY SO WILL CARRY A DRY 
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN NW PA TO LOW 
60S IN THE WEST.   
  
THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL 
ROUND THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND CARVE OUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION RAMPS UP ON 
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 
MID 60S FOR ALL BUT NE OHIO/NW PA. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWS ON 
ITS HEELS AND PUSHES SOUTH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY A NARROW 
RIBBON OF MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND WILL LIMIT ANY 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NW PA ON SATURDAY...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY 
NIGHT. MODELS SHOW 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO ON SUNDAY SO 
WILL LEAN TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST WITH CLOUDS 
DEVELOPING OFF LAKE ERIE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 
LOW 50S IN NW PA...TAPERING UP TO NEAR 60 IN NW OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRANSITION 
FROM A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. MOST OF THE 
MODELS AND ESPECIALLY THE ENSEMBLES BRING A WEAKENING FRONT ACROSS 
THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 
EXCEPTION IS THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WHICH DEVELOPS A CUT OFF LOW 
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER. THE 
FORECAST WILL BE WARM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH 
HIGHS AROUND 70. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY LATER TUESDAY 
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY 
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY 
BACK DOWN TOWARD 60 BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNLESS IT 
STAYS CLOUDY AND RAINY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG AND LOCAL IFR FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS NW OHIO
UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. PATCHES OF CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER LOW. SOME MVFR CEILINGS
WERE OCCURRING FROM LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THOUGH THE MORNING BUT SUBSIDENCE AND
CLEARING SHOULD INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AND
ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR. JUST PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PERHAPS
LINGERING ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTH WINDS WHICH HAD BEEN UP EARLIER IN THE NIGHT SHOULD 
DECREASE STEADILY THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORY EXPIRE BUT THE LAKE WILL BE CHOPPY MUCH OF THE DAY EAST OF 
THE ISLANDS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE 
EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAKENING 
FRONT FOR FRIDAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH WIND WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY 
BUT A STRONGER FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY AND THE 
GRADIENT WILL BE MUCH STRONGER BY SATURDAY MORNING AND BOTH WINDS 
AND WAVES WILL EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SATURDAY. 
THE WIND MAY NOT DROP OFF MUCH ON SUNDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS ON THE 
WESTERN BASIN AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS 
WILL COME BACK AROUND FROM THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK






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