Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Cleveland, OH banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KCLE 201340
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
940 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES WILL MOVE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME CIRRUS WILL BE OVER THE AREA...BUT IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY.
WITH A SOUTH FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING. A LAKE BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP AND IT WILL MAKE IT 4 TO 6 MILES INLAND. IT WILL TAKE TIME
TO GET INLAND...IN THE MEANTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY...AS HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OVER
NEW ENGLAND REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EAST LATE TODAY AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHICH
WILL ALLOW CIRRUS SHIELD TO SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. IN FACT MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH 70+ DEGREE
TEMPS WHICH IS ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH TODAY BUT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A WEAK LAKE BREEZE
THAT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE NOT BE UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  TOMORROW WILL BE WARMER 
THAN TODAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM 
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE NEXT SYSTEM 
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT.  THE NAM IS A LITTLE SLOW 
AND THE GFS A LITTLE FASTER THAN YDY...BUT TREND IS STILL THE SAME 
WITH BULK OF PRECIP FALLING MONDAY NIGHT.   REMOVED MENTION OF TSRA 
AS LIMITED DYNAMICS AND WITH THE SYSTEM COMING THROUGH IN THE MIDDLE 
OF THE NIGHT...LIMITED CAPE.  S

AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE WILL BE A LITTLE BREAK IN THE 
SHOWERS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP IN THE EAST LATE AFTERNOON 
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE 
APPROACHES 10C AND A SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE.  FOR 
NOW WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS HAS GOTTEN ON BOARD WITH A FASTER MOVING INITIAL SHORT WAVE 
AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL DIG 
WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES THOUGH AND THERE MAY BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF 
SHOWERS OR THREATS OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A 
GENERIC "CHANCE OF SHOWERS" IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO 
FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE UNCERTAIN THURSDAY AND 
FRIDAY. PREFER A MORE CONSERVATIVE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON 
THURSDAY (UPPER 50S TO MID 60S) FEARING A RELATIVELY COOL 
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW OUT OF THE SURFACE HIGH JUST TO OUR EAST WITH 
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS AND/OR DEBRIS CLOUDS. THINK FRIDAY 
WILL BE WARMER WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND 
HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE 70F.  

THE MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE GFS
DIGGING THE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE ECMWF FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE CONSENSUS FAVORS THE SOMEWHAT MORE
AMPLIFIED GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTION ALLOWING THE SURFACE HIGH TO
SETTLE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FORECAST WILL NOT BE AS
FAST BRINGING RAIN BACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AS THE
ECMWF. INSTEAD WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF SOME LEFT OVER
SHOWERS ACROSS NE OH/NW PA SATURDAY UNDER THE TROUGH ALOFT AND
TEMPS SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST BY
TONIGHT. VFR WITH PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFTS ARE LIKELY AT KCLE AND KERI THIS
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE EAST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND BECOME SOUTHEAST THIS 
MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT 
THE WIND ON THE LAKE WILL BE MOSTLY LAKE BREEZE ORIENTED. THE SOUTH 
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. STRONG 
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND 
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORIES BY LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHTER 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK






National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy