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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 282023
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
323 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST ON 
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY 
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. A 
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A COUPLE FAST MOVING POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUMS WILL SLIDE 
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND GRAZE THE AREA. THESE 
FEATURES WILL SPREAD A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE AREA THIS 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST SHOT OF MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT 
ARRIVES AROUND 06Z THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF 
THE NIGHT. SNOWFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT AND CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST 
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY TAKE PLACE IN 
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS 
THE GREAT LAKES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE EAST SHOULD BE AN INCH OR 
LESS AND NONE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE PUSHES EAST...WIND FLOW STARTS TO 
PUSH AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND THIS WILL BRING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW 
TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT DROP MUCH THIS EVENING AND 
THEN BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD MORNING.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES 
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE PRIMARILY ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN TIER OF CANADA AND EXTEND THE TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES 
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. 

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST 
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL SIT ON THE COAST AND PUMP WARM 
AIR BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE TRUE 
EFFECTS OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE FELT ON SUNDAY WHEN THE 
STRONGEST WARM AIR ARRIVES. LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP TO FORCE THE 
WARMING INTO THE REGION AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TO NEAR JAMES BAY. THE 
STORM SYSTEM WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT EAST TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF 
THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES 
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. FRONT THEN MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA 
SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE SHOWERS WILL RETURN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. 
MOISTURE APPEARS IT WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE SINCE THERE WILL NOT 
BE A STRONG INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. 

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON 
MONDAY AND WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE INTO MONDAY. 
FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT 
PRECIPITATION SO WILL NOT MENTION IT AT THIS TIME.

COLD AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IS NOT THAT STRONG AND 
ACTUALLY KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR 
HIGHS ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY WITH A WARM 
ADVECTION PATTERN ONCE AGAIN SETTING UP FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO 
WEDNESDAY. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO LIFT IS IN QUESTION 
BUT THIS TIME OF YEAR IT ALWAYS SEEMS TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN 
SHOWERS WITH EACH PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY 
DIFFERENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEYOND 
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS CURRENTLY HAVING A PIECE OF JET ENERGY IN THE 
SOUTHERN JET STREAM. THE ECMWF EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS THIS FEATURE BUT 
IT IS 24 TO 36 HOURS SLOWER. HAVE CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO 
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. 

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY 
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. 

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STILL A FEW LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES NORTHEAST OF A KCLE
TO KYNG LINE. THESE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY
TO THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY UNTIL THE WARM
ADVECTION INCREASES OVER THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE CHANCES OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT BUT IT LOOKS LIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW OF TIME
CLOSER TO SUNRISE WHERE SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE PLACED A PROB30 IN THE TAF SITES THAT HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE LOOKS TO BE VERY
LIGHT AND A SHORT DURATION BUT COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT ISSUES.
THERE MAY BE A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CLOUD COVER UNDER THE HEAVIEST
RETURNS ON RADAR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AND MAY GUST UP TO 25
KNOTS. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BY 18Z SATURDAY IN THE
WARM ADVECTION.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN LIGHT SHOWERS
WITH THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF THE LAKE TONIGHT WITH A 
SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASING. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE LARGER WAVES BEYOND 
5 NM THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS MAY DEVELOP ENOUGH OF A SOUTHWESTERLY 
COMPONENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 
THEN CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT 
WILL CROSS THE LAKE. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND QUICKLY COME AROUND TO 
AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BY TUESDAY MORNING.     

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN






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