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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 201731
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
131 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FORCING A 
WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL 
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST 
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE BECOMES NEARLY 
STATIONARY OVER KANSAS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
BUILD SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OUT OF QUEBEC THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO BACK OFF ON THE POPS FOR NW PA FOR THE AFTERNOON TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 

A TROF HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA AND ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN QUESTION. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
HAS THE BEST CHANCE WHILE THE WESTERN PORTION IF QUESTIONABLE. THE
CUMULUS IS BUBBLING A LITTLE BIT OVER NW OH...THUS KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DECREASING BY DARK. NO CHANGES TO THE
EVENING FORECAST YET...LOOKING AT NEW DATA. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO
THE HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT TO MAKE MUCH OF THE NIGHT DRY
EXCEPT FOR A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF
CLEVELAND EARLY THIS EVENING.

ADDED A THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH A FLOOD POTENTIAL TO THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING ESPECIALLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHAPING UP TO BRING THE FORECAST AREA INTO A 
SUMMER PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN WAITING TO SEE ALL SUMMER. UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND THEN 
DEVELOPS INTO A FULL BLOWN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. 
THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE 
WEEKEND. 

AFTER WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY...WE WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN 
THE ACTION UNTIL WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE 
REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A STRONG SURGE 
OF WARM AIR WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 70S...ESPECIALLY 
WEST. THIS WILL MAKE FOR MUGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE 
WEEKEND. PLUS...WE WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THREATEN THE 
AREA AS INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT 
BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA...AND A SERIES OF UPPER 
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT ROTATE INTO THE REGION.

THREAT STILL EXISTS FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS TO DEVELOP 
AND MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT SOME POINT DURING THIS FORECAST 
PERIOD DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WEAKENING 1000 TO 500 MB 
THICKNESS GRADIENT AND HIGH DEW POINT AIR MASS IN PLACE. 
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE QUITE HIGH APPROACHING 2 INCHES SO 
WE WILL DEFINITELY SEE SOME HEAVY RAINERS.  WILL NEED TO MONITOR 
STORMS FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING ISSUES IN THIS PATTERN. EVEN WET 
MACROBURSTS COULD BE A PROBLEM IN THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS AROUND THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING 
THE WARM SECTOR IN PLACE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGE 
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ONGOING SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE THE 
RULE AT NIGHT AND IN THE MORNINGS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH STRONGER 
THREAT IN THE AFTERNOONS.

BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WE ENTER INTO 
THE WARM SECTOR WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR COOLING...OTHER THAN FROM 
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS DIFFICULT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS 
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BE 
HOW MUCH JET ENERGY WILL BE PASSING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. IT 
WILL BE HUMID BUT WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE PERIOD IT 
LOOKS AS IF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE SUNDAY 
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDER WILL LIKELY BE OVER 
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. 

THIS LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BE THE WARMEST STRETCH OF WEATHER WE HAVE 
HAD THIS SUMMER WITH MID 80S TO AROUND 90 POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE REGION. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY CAUSE SOME BRIEF
IFR VISIBILITIES. A WEAK COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER NW OHIO SHOULD
MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON TO KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EAST OF INTERSTATE 71. NOT CONFIDENT IN COVERAGE OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT SO ONLY WENT WITH A VICINITY
MENTION.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW 12 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER WESTERN AREAS MAY SEE WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST
IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK FRONT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO LAKE ONTARIO 
BY THURSDAY. AS IT DOES IT WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE 
LAKE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 
UNDER 12 KNOTS. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE 
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER WARM FRONT ATTEMPTING TO 
LIFT ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN






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