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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 300235
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1035 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW OVER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE ACROSS BUFFALO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH 
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO LAKE ERIE TUESDAY 
NIGHT THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. A LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH 
THE LAKES PULLING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO UP THE OHIO VALLEY LATER SATURDAY THEN 
ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LAKES MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A BAND OF POST FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. THE HRRR IS SHOWING THIS BAND TRYING TO
FALL APART AS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH BEFORE FILLING IN AGAIN TOWARDS MORNING AS THE TROUGH
AXIS PIVOTS AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. STILL THINKING CHANCES ARE PRETTY
GOOD FOR SEEING SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT FOR THE TOLEDO AREA AND
ACROSS NRN AND NE OHIO ON TUESDAY. DURATION COULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF
IN NW OHIO...LASTING FOR A MAYBE A FEW HOURS IN THE EAST BEFORE
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ARRIVES. TWEAKED MINS IN A FEW AREAS
OVERNIGHT...RAISING TEMPERATURES FROM FINDLAY TO SANDUSKY BY A
COUPLE DEGREES WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...BUT
LIKELY AHEAD OF THE RAIN. TWEAKED A FEW OF THE COOLER SPOTS DOWN
IN THE EAST (BJJ/YNG) WHERE TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 50S. ALSO
LOWERED HIGHS ON TUESDAY BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN NW OHIO AS
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER BEHIND THE FRONT UNLESS WE
CAN GET ANY DECENT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. MODEL SOUNDING SUGGEST
THAT WILL BE HARD TO DO WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION
NEAR 900MB.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SE
ACROSS LAKE ERIE TUE MORNING. THE STRONG VORT MAX WITH THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE THE FORCING TO GENERATE A BAND OF SHRA AND
A FEW POSSIBLE TSRA THAT SHOULD MOVE ESE TO NEAR CLE BY 12Z TUE
THEN WORK ACROSS THE EAST INTO TUE AFTERNOON. COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR TUE AFTERNOON THAT
WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHRA GOING IN THE EAST UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. QPF WITH THIS EVENT LOOKS TO RANGE FROM A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN THE SW TO A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN
INCH IN THE NE.

TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS 
THEN TEMPS ON TUE WILL BE COOLER ALSO DUE TO THE CLOUDS ALONG WITH 
THE SHRA AND COOLER AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER THE SHRA THREAT TUE EVE...CLOUDS SHOULD BE DECREASING SOME 
THUS HELPING FOR A COLDER NIGHT WITH LOWS 47 TO 52 FOR MOST OF THE 
AREA.

AN ISOLATED SHRA COULD STILL OCCUR IN NW PA WED DUE TO UPPER 
TROUGHING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED SOUTH INTO THE AREA 
SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL THU NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE 
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST LATER WED THRU THU SO TEMPS WILL MODERATE A 
LITTLE WARMER ON WED AND MORE SO ON THU. STRONGER STORMS LOOK 
POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT ON FRI BUT SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE AREA 
THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THIS PERIOD TO 
COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS.

A FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY 
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH A DRY SLOT FOR MUCH OF THE 
AFTERNOON. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THE MODEL DIFFER ON 
THE QPF AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THE ECMWF HAS A CLOSED LOW MOVING 
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL HAVE A 
DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NE OH 
AND NW PA...MORE LAKE INDUCED WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE 
DIFFERENCE NEAR 18C. THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTION SEEM BETTER. NONE 
THE LESS IT WILL BE COOL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...AT 
LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IF NOT A LITTLE MORE. 

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY 
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE TEMPERATURE 
FORECAST AS THE ECMWF TRIES TO KEEP THINGS COOL. STAYED CLOSE TO WPC 
GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MARCH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO FAR RADAR UPSTREAM SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF
PRECIPITATION HEADED OUR WAY. PROBLEM IS...MODELS SHOW THE
ACTIVITY SLOWING DOWN OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER OHIO TOMORROW. LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOLLOW THE PRECIPITATION TOMORROW. SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF DRIZZLE EXPECTED AS WELL. SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY TRY
TO TAKE PLACE IN THE WEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SOMEWHAT LIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL LAST THROUGH MID WEEK 
BEFORE CONDITIONS CHANGE DRAMATICALLY. 

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL 
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AS THE 
COLD ADVECTION IS VERY WEAK ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SOME 
SHOWERS...DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE LAST GOOD DAYS ON THE LAKE 
FOR AWHILE.

A THREAT OF MUCH STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON 
FRIDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO SPECIAL 
MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. THE MAIN THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORY WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IT 
IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WIND SPEEDS COULD EVEN GET STRONG ENOUGH AHEAD 
OF THE FRONT TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SOME QUESTION HOW 
STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GFS MODEL 
HAS WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE 
MORE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. AT THIS TIME LEANING TOWARD THE 
LIGHTER WINDS...AS THE GFS SEEMS TO OVERDO THE WINDS AT TIMES. THE 
THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY 
MORNING. 

SOME QUESTION HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO 
SUNDAY. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS TRIES TO BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE 
LAKE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A TROF AND THAT WOULD 
MEAN THE THREAT FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WOULD CONTINUE 
INTO SUNDAY. NONE THE LESS WHICH EVER MODEL IS CORRECT THE LAKE WILL 
BE CHOPPY ESPECIALLY EAST OF CLEVELAND LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KEC
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KIELTYKA







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