000
FXUS61 KCLE 172111 AAA
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
511 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT ACROSS THE STATE OF OHIO FROM WEST TO EAST WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY INTO SATURDAY AND THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT AND BECOME QUITE DIFFUSE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE
EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND PRODUCE A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED TO BUMP UP POPS ACROSS SW THIRD OF FORECAST AREA FOR THIS
EVENING. SHOWER DEVELOPED NEAR MFD IN AREA OF ISODROSOTHERM
PACKING...WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO MOVE TOO
FAST.  SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
A LONE SHOWER HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE DEWPOINT GRADIENT THIS
AFTERNOON OVER RICHLAND COUNTY AND OTHER ENHANCED CU ARE ALIGNED
FARTHER WEST NEAR FDY. THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THIS LINE SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS
EVENING. HAVE USED THE MAV GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES WITH
MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WARMER AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AND BECOMES DIFFUSE.
HIGHER HUMID WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. A
WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND MAY SPREAD A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS INTO MAINLY
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING BUT
CONFIDENCE AND TIMING IS RATHER UNCERTAIN.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BUT FORCING FOR
ASCENT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS TIME SO WILL JUST
INCLUDE A SMALL TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

HAVE USED THE MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES WITH MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE 
SLOWLY TOWARDS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.  INITIALLY ON TUESDAY IT 
APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AS 
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THIS ENVIRONMENT BUT WITH A LACK OF A 
KICKER...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED.  THE GFS SUGGESTS A 
SHORT WAVE SHOULD ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE 
ACTUAL COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.  WHILE ALL THE PERIODS NEXT WEEK 
APPEAR TO BE UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT APPEAR TO BE 
THE TWO PERIODS WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS AND THE GREATEST CHANCE OF 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ON THURSDAY AND 
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS OUT OF THE AREA.  
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING 
AND SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION THREAT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO
STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH. MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR IS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE AREA AND WAS A MAJOR CONTRIBUTOR TO THE IFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORING. THE HIGH/MID CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE
AREA SHOULD SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF IFR TONIGHT. I WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS VFR OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. WITH A
LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITION OF THE STORMS I WILL
LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MFD.
AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE TAF SITES. A
LAKE BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AND WILL KEEP
THE WIND MORE FROM A NORTHEAST DIRECTION FOR ERI...CLE...AND TOL
THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS INCREASES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS LOCKED INLAND KEEPING AN EAST TO 
NORTHEAST WIND ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE 
MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE 
OVER QUEBEC WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY DOMINANT FLOW OVER THE LAKE. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS UNIMPRESSIVE SO SPEEDS WILL LINGER AROUND 
15KT. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TURN THE WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST 
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS UNDER 15 KT ON THE COOLER 
WATER. THE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY. SOME ISOLATED 4 FT 
WAVES POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN BASIN THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN WAVES 
1-3 FT THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...DJB/LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...GARNET
MARINE...JAMISON