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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 212351
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
751 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY 
THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY. 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY WILL MOVE ACROSS OHIO 
FRIDAY AND OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY THEN A LOW WILL MOVE INTO 
OHIO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGH EAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER 
TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT SE FLOW. ANY CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE
WITH SUNSET. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH
READINGS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL
LIKELY FORM AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH UPPER RIDGING TUE TO KEEP CONVECTION 
SUPPRESSED. TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 
AROUND 90 IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE EAST.

TUE NIGHT WILL BECOME MORE CHALLENGING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES 
WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS SE INTO THE LAKES. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW 
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LATER TUE NIGHT BUT THE BEST 
CHANCE WILL BE WED INTO WED EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE 
AREA. RIGHT NOW...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS ONLY LOOK GOOD  
ENOUGH FOR STRONG STORMS WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM HERE 
AND THERE.

ENOUGH MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT MAY BE PRESENT FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA 
IN THE SE THU...OTHERWISE DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BE SPREADING 
SE INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE ARE THU NIGHT 
WITH SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND THEN IT WILL MOVE 
EAST ON SATURDAY. IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS IT WAS LAST WEEK. THE 
850 MB TEMPERATURE WILL GET DOWN TO 10C...WHILE LAST WEEK IT GOT 
DOWN TO 5C. 

THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND 
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY 
AND THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT OF 
PRECIPITATION WILL LAST INTO MONDAY. THE MODELS DO DIFFER...THE 00Z 
ECMWF TRIES TO MOVE THE UPPER TROF EAST OF THE AREA AND THEN 
RETROGRADES IT. WITH THAT IN MIND WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS 
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SKIES ARE CLEARING THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF 
THE TAF CYCLE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR A PERIOD OF BR WITH 4-5 
MILE VISIBILITY THAT COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH NEARLY CALM 
WINDS. THE RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE IN THE 10-13Z 
WINDOW. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH SCT 
CU NEAR 4-5K FEET.  

OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A RIDGE ACROSS THE LAKE WILL WEAKEN ON TUESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME 
LIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE. A LAND BREEZE IS LIKELY ESPECIALLY EAST OF 
CLEVELAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY 
STRONG. SOME THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT COULD PROMPT THE NEED FOR 
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATE WEDNESDAY 
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST WINDS 
COULD CAUSE CONDITIONS TO BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TOWARD THE LAKE ON 
THURSDAY AND MOVE EAST OF LAKE ERIE SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES 
ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KIELTYKA







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