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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 292045
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
345 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL TRACK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THE
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

WILL CONTINUE WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVERNIGHT WITH PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND EXPECTED
PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE LATER TONIGHT. THE LAKE IS MOSTLY
ICE COVERED BUT THERE ARE LIKELY THIN AREAS AND BREAKS IN THE ICE
OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN THAT MAY AID IN THE PRODUCTION OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW. THE SREF AND SSEO AND OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATE ABOUT
1/3 OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT OVER NORTHWEST PA WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS OVER NORTHEAST OHIO. WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST OF 2-5
INCHES OF SNOW FOR OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS COMPARED TO THE MAV AFTER EXAMINING THE CURRENT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AND FARTHER NORTHWEST.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SHIFT EAST OF
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND STALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE FEATURE ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
WITH FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS AND ECMWF SO CONFIDENCE
IS RATHER HIGH. THE FEATURE APPEARS TO BE AN ADVISORY TYPE EVENT
WITH ALL SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF
ROUTE 30. WILL USE MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AND POPS.



&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START OFF COLD...WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS 
AND LOWS DROPPING BELOW ZERO MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW 
BECOMES MORE ZONAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL 
REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHS AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT PIVOTS BACK 
INTO CANADA. SNOW APPEARS LIKELY TUESDAY AS A STRONGER PUSH OF COLD 
AIR...CHARACTERIZED BY 850 TEMPERATURES LESS THAN -20C...FILTERS IN 
ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. 
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AT OR BELOW ZERO.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHER OHIO TODAY AND
TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST BEHIND A
TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MAKE ITS WAY EAST FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KNOTS AT MOST
LOCATIONS BUT THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPING AREAS NEAR KERI MAY GUST
AROUND 35 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
WILL BE COMMON OVERNIGHT. THE PRECIP IS STILL A MIX AT YNG AND
ERI...WITH A BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE FRONT MOVES IN. LOOKING AT LIGHT PATCHY RAIN UNTIL THE FRONT
AT WHICH TIME WE CAN EXPECT SOME -RASN BECOMING ALL SNOW THIS
EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW WITH THE COLDER AIR WITH
ACCUMULATIONS AT ALL TAF SITES. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES
WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA.

.OUTLOOK...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST
FRIDAY. MORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY NIGHT IN
SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO EASTERN LAKE ERIE AT THE TIME 
OF THIS ISSUANCE. A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS GOING TO SHIFT WINDS FROM 
SW TO WNW FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY 
AROUND 20 TO 25 KT WITH OCCASIONAL 30 KT FOR A FEW HOURS. THE COLD 
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY WILL KEEP WINDS BLUSTERY. HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SATURDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK AND 
DIMINISH TO UNDER 15KT. FOR SUNDAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE 
SOUTH OF THE AREA SUPPORTING A SHIFT IN WINDS TO THE NORTH. 

THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED BUT THE STRONGER WINDS TODAY INTO 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY CAUSE ICE FLOES OR AT LEAST CAUSE ISSUES WITH 
ANY CHANNELS CREATED BY THE ICE CUTTERS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ012>014-
     023-089.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...JAMISON






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