Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Cleveland, OH banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KCLE 122338
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
738 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST TO OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST
WILL STREAM NORTH INTO THE REGION AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO CHANGES FOR 630 UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE JET STREAM SPREAD INTO THE AREA MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT BUT
INCREASING CLOUDS LATER WILL STABILIZE TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING FROM
KNOX COUNTY TO FDY TO THE UPPER 20S IN NW PA. GFS AND NAM MOS
GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE WITH SLIGHT CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A MILD AND WET FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
IMPROVING AND COOLER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.

STILL EXPECT A LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EVENT TO AFFECT THE REGION
STARTING FRIDAY MORNING AND EXTENDING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM
ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE NORTHWEST NEAR TOL TO AROUND AN
INCH IN SOUTHEAST FROM KNOX TO STARK COUNTIES. THE SUITE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE IS RATHER CONSISTENT SO CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL ESTIMATES
IS FAIRLY HIGH. THE ONSET OF RAIN FRIDAY WILL HELP KEEP A LID ON
MAX TEMPERATURES AND THERE MAY BE A POCKET OF RAIN COOLED AIR OVER
THE SOUTHWEST FROM MNN TO KNOX. FARTHER NORTHEAST THE LATER
ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN WILL ALLOW READINGS TO CLIMB TO NEAR 50.

ALOFT THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE
GULF COAST AND WEAKEN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER AIR ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL BE SWEPT OUT BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING BUT THE NORTHERN SHORT
WAVE MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE SNOWBELT.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AND WARMING ALOFT. HAVE USED MAV GUIDANCE WITH MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH MOVING A FRONT THROUGH THE 
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. I PUT SOME RESOLUTION IN AND KEPT THE POPS MAINLY 
AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND LINGER SOME PRECIPITATION ON 
TUESDAY. ON THE EDGE ABOUT THAT...THE BEST CHANCE COULD BE TUESDAY 
MORNING. ON THURSDAY A DIFFUSE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES IN ACCORDING 
TO THE GFS...WHILE THE ECMWF IS STILL DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS 
THE AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND KEPT IT DRY FOR THE TIME BEING UNTIL 
TRENDS BECOME CLEARER.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL AT LEAST FOR THE HIGHS 
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS NY STATE TONIGHT WITH
WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIFT
FROM THE APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CAUSE CEILINGS TO
THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL ATTEMPT TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
WITH THE STEADY RAIN. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE THESE IFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY IN -RA/BR. NON VFR MAY LINGER ACROSS EXTREME NE
OH/NW PA SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH AT LEAST THE 
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AS A LOW 
PRESSURE AREA HEADS TOWARDS LAKE ERIE. AFTER THE LOW AND THE 
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT LESS 
THAN 30 KNOTS SUSTAINED. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE LAKE 
MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THE SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS 
THAN 30 KNOTS SUSTAINED.

THE ICE ON THE LAKE WILL CONTINUE TO THIN. MOVEMENT OF THE ICE IS 
MORE LIKELY AS MORE OPEN WATER DEVELOPS AND WHEN THE WINDS GET 
STRONGER BEFORE AND AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE WATER RELEASED FROM THE RECENT MELTING
SNOW ALONG WITH SUN AND MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY...ICE HAS BEGUN
TO SHIFT ON AREA RIVERS WITH SOME ICE JAMS BEING REPORTED AND A
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.  WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN
FRIDAY/SATURDAY THE ICE JAM THREAT WILL INCREASE. EXPECTED
RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO SATUDAY WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH
IN THE NORTHWEST NEAR TOLEDO TO AROUND AN INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST
FROM KNOX TO STARK COUNTIES. AREAS MOST VULNERABLE WILL BE ALONG
RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO LAKE ERIE...WHICH ALSO REMAINS MOSTLY ICE
COVERED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ003-006>014-
     018>023-033-089.
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...DJB/LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KIELTYKA
HYDROLOGY...JAMISON






National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy