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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 271145
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
645 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO TONIGHT. 
MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE 
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY...REACHING THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM 
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT 
PUSHING BACK SOUTH LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFTING ACROSS OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING HAS 
BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS HELPING TO 
ENHANCE SNOW SHOWERS COMING OFF LAKE ERIE. THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE 
MAINLY BEEN FOCUSED ACROSS LORAIN COUNTY AND ARE INCREASING IN 
CUYAHOGA COUNTY WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN FOCUSED. THE 
RADAR IS SHOWING SOME HIGHER REFLECTIVITY NEAR 40 DBZ IN THE BAND 
COMING OFF THE LAKE BUT SUSPECT THERE MAY BE BRIGHT BANDING AS 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. THIS SNOW IS 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH SUNRISE BEFORE THE FLOW 
ALOFT SHIFTS AROUND TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND DISRUPTS THIS BAND. 
SNOW SHOWERS WILL FILL IN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EAST SIDE OF THE 
METRO AREA. ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL BE MINOR GIVEN THE WARM 
TEMPERATURES WITH LOCALLY UP TO 2 INCHES IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF 
LORAIN COUNTY. 

THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL DECREASE 
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING INTO NW 
OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS FROM LATE 
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL ONLY RECOVER A FEW DEGREES 
TODAY INTO THE MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER WISCONSIN WILL SWING 
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A 
CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES WITH THE 700MB 
FRONT. IN FACT AS TEMPERATURES NEAR 700MB COOL BY 4C WE SEE A VERY 
UNSTABLE LAYER DEVELOP FROM THE SURFACE TO 650MB. THERE WILL BE A 
WINDOW OF GOOD LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND EXPECT WE WILL 
SEE A GOOD BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING. SNOW RATES AND 
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE EFFICIENT DURING THIS WINDOW. THIS WINDOW 
WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS MOISTURE IN THE 850-700MB LAYER REALLY 
STRIPS AWAY BETWEEN 03-06Z. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE 
SURFACE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH AND IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE FROM 
LAKE MICHIGAN WILL GET PULLED EAST ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE 
TROUGH. RAISED POPS THROUGH ABOUT 04Z WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 
INCHES ACROSS THE OHIO SNOW BELT AND 2 TO 4 INCHES INTO 
PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW WILL HAVE AN EASIER TIME ACCUMULATING AS WE HEAD 
INTO THIS EVENING. WE MAY END UP NEED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW 
ADVISORY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING FOR ERIE COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA. 
   
SNOW ENDS ACROSS MOST OF OHIO PRETTY QUICKLY ON FRIDAY 
MORNING...LINGERING THE LONGEST TOWARDS ERIE PENNSYLVANIA. AFTER A 
COOL NIGHT...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY GET TO AROUND 30 DEGREES. 
WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF 
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW MUCH WILL REACH 
THE GROUND AFTER HAVING TO OVERCOME SOME DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. LOOKS 
LIKE A PRETTY LIGHT QPF. WARMING TRENDS GETS UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY 
AND TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S...COOLEST IN 
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING.  THE MODELS REMAIN 
IN FAIR AGREEMENT DURING PERIOD.  SUNDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY.  
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN 
THE DAY.  NOT SURE HOW FAST THE PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN BEHIND THE 
FRONT.  BEST GUESS NOW IS THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY 
MORNING.  DO NOT THINK IT WILL GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BEFORE THE 
PRECIP ENDS.  AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE 
REGION MONDAY NIGHT.  WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION 
PRECIP COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING.  WILL GO WITH CHANCE 
POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ALL AREAS.  TOUGH TO TELL THIS 
FAR OUT IF THE PRECIP WILL BE SNOW OR RAIN AS TEMPS AND CRITICAL 
THICKNESSES ARE RIGHT ON THE EDGE.  HOPEFULLY LATER SHIFTS WILL BE 
BETTER ABLE TO PINPOINT THE PRECIP TYPE.  SUNDAY WILL SEE ABOVE 
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE A 
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PESKY LITTLE BAND OF SNOW JUST DUMPED AN INCH OF SNOW ON KCLE IN
AN HOUR. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
GOING ON SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED. HAVE GIVEN THE EASTERN TAF
SITES A COUPLE MENTION THIS MORNING. THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY
AND THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE QUIET. EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR ALL
AREAS BY 18Z. A FRONT AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR LAKE EFFECT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF KCLE. BY
MORNING A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
ARRIVING. SHOULD SEE THE ACTIVITY BEGIN TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AFT
06Z.  WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY NW TODAY.  

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN -SHSN...LINGERING
ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH
THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE HELD OFF ON A SMALL CRAFT FOR THE TIME BEING BUT ONE WILL 
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING.  THE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS 
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE 
LAKE ON FRIDAY.  THE FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE S OR SW BEHIND THE 
RIDGE.  SLOWLY INCREASING TO S TO SW FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TILL A 
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  MORE 
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR BEHIND THAT FEATURE.  HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON 
MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA






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