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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 282342
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
742 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEN 
MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY FRIDAY AND
FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SUNDAY DRAGGING
A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. LESS CLOUD COVER...DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOT EH NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. WARMTH
AND HUMIDITY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY.
HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL ATTEMPT TO REACH 90 AND SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS BUT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ABOUT WHAT WILL TRIGGER THE CONVECTION. THERE COULD BE AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT KEEPS A CAP ON THINGS FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BY SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MOVED INTO QUEBEC
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. IT DOESNT APPEAR THAT THE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH IT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN CENTRAL OHIO AND
BECOME A FACTOR IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY. 

AFTER THE HOT DAY ON SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON MONDAY A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN CENTRAL
ONTARIO WITH A STRONG PIECE OF JET ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION.
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THIS NEXT SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FRONT COULD BECOME ROBUST. MORE DETAILS TO COME OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LINES OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH IS
ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE ECMWF FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
TAKES THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND ALLOWS HIGH
PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MID WEEK. GFS WANTS TO
CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY DELAYING HIGH PRESSURE
UNTIL THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH INCREASING HIGH 
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SEEING MVFR VISIBILITIES 
DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE AT CAK/YNG BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 50
DEGREES. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 10K FEET ON FRIDAY
MORNING. LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL VEER AROUND TO SOUTHEAST
ON FRIDAY. A LAKE BREEZE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AT ERI
WITH A LESSER CHANCE OF SEEING IT MOVE INTO CLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST FOR FRIDAY. THE 
WEEKEND WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE VICINITY AND 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE 
SOUTHWEST...POSSIBLY STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE 
EAST END SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH TO NEAR 
LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY BUT WILL PULL BACK NORTH AGAIN MONDAY WITH A 
FINAL COMPLETE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...OUDEMAN






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