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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 310233
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1033 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST 
COAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE ASSOCIATED 
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THEN SHIFT 
TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE 
EAST COAST BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON 
SUNDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL MOVE 
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON 
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
PLENTY OF CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. AN UPPER TROF WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS
THROUGH 6 AM WILL BE IN THE TOLEDO AREA AND OVER THE LAKE. MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS TO INDICATE THAT. BECAUSE OF THE THICKER
CLOUDS ADJUSTED SOME OF THE LOWS UPWARD. THE CLOUDS WERE A LITTLE
THIN OVER NW PA...BUT THEY SHOULD THICKEN BY MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG AN IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE THAT CLOSES
OFF AS IT DROPS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ALL THE WAY TO THE
CAROLINAS. COLD AIR WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD. RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL GRADUALLY COOL
ENOUGH TO MIX AND CHANGE TO SNOW...PERHAPS MIXING/CHANGING AS
QUICKLY AS FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO WITH CHILLY
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. NOT THE BEST EVENING FOR TRICK OR TREAT OR
FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL.

THE NORTH FLOW OFF THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP THE
LAKESHORE RELATIVELY WARM ON FRIDAY NIGHT BUT BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING JUST ABOUT ANYBODY COULD SEE MIXED RAIN AND SNOW OR ALL
SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH SUCH A DEEP TROUGH ALOFT THE
SYNOPTIC SHOWERS OFTEN LAST LONGER THAN THE MODELS THINK. THE
NORTH WIND WILL PROVIDE LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WILL KEEP RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST MOST OF SATURDAY EXCEPT FOR THE I-75
CORRIDOR (NW OHIO). THE BAST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW
WOULD BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PERHAPS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. AS ALWAYS THIS
TIME OF YEAR...THE GROUND IS WARM AND IT HAS TO SNOW HARD TO
STICK. WILL PUT IN SOME MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND MANSFIELD
(AN INCH OR TWO).

IT WILL BE HARD TO WARM UP ON SATURDAY ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT 
CONTINUE TO GET PRECIP. WITH THE 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED AROUND -9C 
SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S.  

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN ON SUNDAY. LAKE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY 
LINGER NE OH/NW PA ALTHOUGH WITH ANY LUCK WE CAN GET SOME BREAKS IN 
THE CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S NW OHIO TO THE 
UPPER 30S EXTREME NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WOULD BE 
ACROSS NW OHIO.  MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE COLD 
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.  AFTER THIS THE 
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.  ON WEDNESDAY THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT 
SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS A WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS 
THE FORECAST AREA.  FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR 
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND TURN TO THE SOUTH. SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO OH AND BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY MORNING AND FOR THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
WILL TAKE A STEP DOWNWARD WITH THOSE SHOWERS AND WILL BE
PREDOMINATELY MVFR. CANNOT RULE OUT PERIODS OF IFR...BUT THE
PERSISTENT IFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z SAT.
THE SAME GOES FOR ANY SNRA MIX. KCLE SHOULD BE ABLE TO STAY RAIN
THROUGH 06Z SAT. LOW CENTER WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO OHIO BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP FOR TOL/FDY NEAR
00Z SAT.

.OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD NON VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...ISOLATED TO JUST FAR NE OH/NW PA ON SUNDAY. SNRA MIX
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK W-NW FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.  MODELS CONTINUE TO 
BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING LOW INTO CENTRAL LAKES FRIDAY...DRAGGING 
COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE. HAVE RAISED A GALE WATCH FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF NORTH 35 KNOT GALES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS MAY BE LIMITED TO THE WEST END OF LAKE ERIE WHERE
THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
THE STRONGER WINDS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AND
THEREFORE THE WATCH. AT A MINIMUM SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
BE NEEDED WHERE THERE IS NOT GALES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR 
     LEZ142>144-162>164.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...DJB/OUDEMAN








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