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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 221155
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
655 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK OUT OF THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND LIFT A WARM FRONT
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY AND PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND IT 
WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH. SOME SUNSHINE THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. THE CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH A FEW HOURS QUICKER THAN EXPECTED. ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER TO
INDICATE THIS WITH BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH AND BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THIS
QUICKER INCREASE IN SKY COVER ADJUSTED THE HIGHS DOWN A FEW
DEGREES ESPECIALLY AT WELL INLAND LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR THIS PERIOD THE WEATHER IS WET WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES 
AND BECOMING WINDY AND THEN COOLING OFF.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING UP TONIGHT WITH SOME RAIN. THE QUESTION 
IS HOW FAR EAST WILL IT SPREAD. AT THIS TIME SPREAD THE LIKELY POPS 
INTO EXTREME NE OH BASED ON RAIN TYPICALLY SPREADING QUICK WITH A WARM 
FRONT AND MOST OF THE MODELS SPREAD IT EAST. THE NEXT SHIFTS WILL 
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS TO SEE IF THEY NEED TO INCREASE THE POPS AND 
EVEN SPREAD IT FURTHER EAST.

ON TUESDAY SEVERAL OF MODELS THE GFS AND CANADIAN HAVE A DRY SLOT
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS THE FIRST MODEL RUN THAT THIS
IS BEING FORECAST. LEANED THAT DIRECTION BUT STILL KEPT THE POPS
LIKELY OR HIGHER UNTIL THE TRENDS ARE CLEARER.

THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE A LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF COAST STATES
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVES THE LOW THROUGH MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND THEN INTO ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WAVE OF
RAIN WILL MOVE UP ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN IT WILL BECOME MORE
SHOWERY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DID NOT MENTION THUNDER BUT
THIS THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING THAT
MUCH SNOW MAINLY 2 INCHES OR LESS. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
CHRISTMAS MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.

THE WIND WILL BE THE BIG ISSUE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE 
WINDS ALOFT ARE FAIRLY STRONG...45 TO 50 KNOTS AT AROUND 2000 FEET 
ABOVE THE GROUND BUT THE COLD ADVECTION IS NOT REAL STRONG. SO THE 
QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF THE WIND WILL MIX DOWN. THE WIND ADVISORY 
DEFINITELY LOOKS REASONABLE. A HIGH WIND WATCH MAY ALSO BE NEEDED
EVENTUALLY. AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS LIKE THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR
55 AND 58 MPH IF THEY OCCUR WOULD BE BRIEF...GUSTS TO 50 MPH WOULD
BE MORE COMMON.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM AN INCH AND A HALF WEST TO JUST UNDER AN INCH EAST. SINCE THE
RAIN WILL BE SPREAD OUT OVER SEVERAL DAYS NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
FLOODING. WATER LEVELS WILL RISE IN STREAMS AND CREEKS BUT THEY
WILL REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL. SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS MAY
OCCUR SINCE THE GROUND IS SATURATED.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A LITTLE TOUGH. THE GUIDANCE LOWS FOR 
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT SEEM TOO LOW BASED ON CLOUDS AND SOME 
WIND. WENT TOWARD THE WARM GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW MOVING 
UP FROM THE SOUTH AND BRINGING UP WARM AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRENDING TOWARD A RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD EAST 
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND TO THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY. ANOTHER 
DEEP DIGGING TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY 
SATURDAY AND THEN DAMPEN OUT BY SUNDAY AS IT MOVES EAST.

EUROPEAN AND GFS SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING BACK ON THE 
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY. WILL DROP POPS BACK A FEW AND END THE THREAT 
FOR PRECIPITATION. WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THE PRECIPITATION INTO THE 
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD 
KEEP THE PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY RAIN FRIDAY EVENING AND THEN 
TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. AS FLOW BECOMES 
MORE FAVORABLE BY SUNDAY...SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN LAKE EFFECT AND BE 
CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST SNOWBELT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY AND THEN 
INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE 
REGION.

NEEDED TO BUMP UP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES DUE TO LONGER POTENTIAL 
FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD COVER WILL LAST A VERY SHORT TIME.
MORE LOWER CLOUDS BETWEEN 4000 AND 4500 FEET HEADED NORTHEAST AT
THIS TIME. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS WELL. VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY
STAY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY AS HAZE PERSISTS TODAY AND THEN
TRANSITIONS INTO FOG OVERNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE BY TOMORROW
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AROUND SUNRISE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN AS 
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WINDS WILL 
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. 
POSSIBILITY IS THAT WE WILL NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EARLY ON 
TRANSITIONING TO A POSSIBLE GALE WARNING BY THURSDAY MORNING. I DONT 
ANTICIPATE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STORM CONDITIONS 
ON THE LAKE. WINDS DIMINISH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY










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