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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 201946
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
346 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
LOW AND FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SOME CIRRUS AROUND TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 
WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTSIDE 
BUT IT COULD STILL COULD HOLD THE LOWS UP SOME ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LAKESHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASING CLOUDS TOMORROW AND WARM JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT 
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. KEPT MONDAY DRY...SOME SHOWERS 
COULD GET CLOSE TO TOLEDO VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF 
THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE BEHIND IT. THE AIRMASS 
WILL BE A LITTLE UNSTABLE...MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY 
OVER WESTERN OHIO MONDAY EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING OVER 
NORTHWEST OHIO BY DAYBREAK AND ELSEWHERE IN THE MORNING. ANOTHER 
TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND THAT COULD GENERATE SOME 
SHOWERS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
MAINLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA AS THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 10C. SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE SNOW
BELT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN FACT SOME SNOW COULD MIX WITH
THE RAIN OVER ASHTABULA COUNTY AND NORTHWEST PA AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY. 

THE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE A LITTLE LOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THE
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO 15 MPH...AT THIS TIME NOT MEETING FIRE
WEATHER WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEPT THURSDAY DRY. INCREASED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY DUE TO THE GFS AND ECMWF CLOSING IN ON
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. BUT THE MODELS QUICKLY DIVERGE FOR THE WEEKEND.
THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER TO LIFT OUT THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE
THE IMPETUS FOR THURSDAY/S RAIN. BY THE TIME IT LIFTS OUT THE
TROUGH THE ECMWF IS ALREADY BRINGING IN THE NEXT SYSTEM FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE GFS HAS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTING UP BETWEEN THE 2 SYSTEMS. BECAUSE THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS DO NOT SHED ANY MORE CERTAINTY...I WILL KEEP POPS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES EITHER...BUT BELIEVE FRIDAY IS THE NEXT BEST BET TO
CRACK 70 DEG AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE CUT OFF EARLY IN THE MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...ULTIMATELY LIMITING THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE MILDER AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A MID LEVEL DECK WILL
START TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...UNDERCUTTING PATCHY CIRRUS ALREADY IN PLACE. THE WIND
WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH THAT
WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF KERI AND KCLE...WHICH WILL BOTH OBSERVE A LAKE BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WIND WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH 
PRESSURE CENTER THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY 
AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE WIND WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST 
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MATURES OVER MICHIGAN. A COLD FRONT WILL 
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE 
NORTHWEST...BECOMING BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. BY FRIDAY THE 
WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL 
PASSAGE. ONCE THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST THE WIND WILL COME FROM THE 
NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. 

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS






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