Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Cleveland, OH banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KCLE 020136
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
936 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES TUESDAY 
THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST. A WARM FRONT WILL 
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM 
THE LOW WILL SAG SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH
ARE LOCATED OUT OVER LAKE ERIE AND ARE MOVING WITH AN EAST-
NORTHEAST DIRECTION. THEREFORE THEY MAY CLIP ERIE COUNTY PA BEFORE
HEADING OFF TO NY. ALL OTHERS WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY ALTHOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER/TS OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FAR TO THE WEST...NEAR CHICAGO. THE
BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES MUCH LATER TONIGHT AS A WAVE
DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WITH SUPPORT OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND
JET MAX. A STEADIER RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BEGIN TO WORK
ITS WAY IN FROM THE FINDLAY AREA NORTHEAST TOWARD MORNING. THERE
IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST IT CAN MOVE INTO THE AREA BEFORE 6
AM.

AREA WILL STILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT LOWS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MORNING SHORTWAVE WILL PULL NORTHEAST AND DIMINISH THE RAIN
CHANCES AS THE DAY GOES ON TUESDAY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW
FAR NORTH THIS AREA OF RAIN TRACKS. HAVE TOLEDO IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY...AND THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA IN CATEGORICAL
POPS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR ZONAL FLOW TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE GULF COAST STATES AND 
BRING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE 
DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT 
NORTHEAST ALONG WITH SOME LIMITED MEAN 1000 TO 500 MB MOISTURE ON 
THURSDAY AND WE COULD SEE A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HOLD ON TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE 
AT THIS POINT SINCE MOISTURE WILL BE SO LIMITED.

AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT THAT STRONG SO NOT EXPECTING 
TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY 
NIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP OFF HOWEVER ABOUT 10 DEGREES TUESDAY NIGHT AND 
THEN BEGIN TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR 
ADVECTION BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE. FURTHER WARMING TAKES PLACE THURSDAY 
AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE EARNEST WARM AIR ADVECTION. 850 MB 
TEMPERATURES CLIMB FROM 16C ON TUESDAY BACK TO AROUND 20C BY 
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT TODAY.  WILL START TO SEE PRECIP CHANCES 
INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A 
COLD FRONT.  FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE WET AND THE LIKELY 
POPS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEM REASONABLE.  THE COLD FRONT WILL 
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND PRECIP SHOULD END DURING THE 
AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL BE A DISTINCT AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND THIS 
FRONT WITH DEW POINTS DIPPING INTO THE 40S AND TEMPERATURES BECOMING 
BELOW NORMAL. BY MONDAY...MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S SOME AREAS 
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET TO 70.  WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD 
THERE SHOULD BE A LOT OF SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY PART
OF THE NIGHT. STEADIER RAIN WILL ARRIVE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDER TUESDAY MORNING BUT DID NOT INCLUDE
IT IN THE TAF FORECASTS GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY AND THE LIKELIHOOD
THAT THE CONVECTION WILL HAVE STRATIFIED BY THAT TIME. CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY LOWER TO LOW MVFR OR IFR BY THE TIME OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN ENDS AND DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO FILTER IN ON A LIGHT WEST WIND BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE 
LAKE ON TUESDAY.  IT APPEARS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON 
THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY 
THURSDAY.  SOME OF THE STORMS ON THE WEST END COULD BE STRONG THIS 
EVENING.  LOOKS LIKE SPEEDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL 
CRAFT CRITERIA TONIGHT SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ISSUANCE.  THE FLOW 
WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD 
OVER THE LAKE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN LIGHT AND 
VARIABLE FLOW.  THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE 
EAST ON THURSDAY ALLOWING A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.  S TO SW 
FLOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE 
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY/OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KUBINA






National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy