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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 201738
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
138 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TODAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING 
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD 
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE 
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AND EXPAND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON 
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN THICK ENOUGH TO LIMIT
THE MIXING OF HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE SO FAR TODAY. HOWEVER AS
THE CLOUD COVER THINS THIS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL INCREASE. 

A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS WAS MOVING INTO NORTHERN OHIO
BUT AT THIS POINT THE BETTER CONVERGENCE AND JET ENERGY IS WELL TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE REGION
THUNDERSTORMS FREE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO NW OHIO
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL BE WATCHING THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION SEEN EARLY 
THIS MORNING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND IOWA. IF VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS 
ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AS SHOWN ON THE 
00Z 4KM SPC WRF-NMM RUN THEN MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT 
MAY BE DISRUPTED. THIS COULD DELAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS 
NW OHIO BUT OVERALL STILL EXPECTING SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS TO FILL OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES 
AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM THE 
NORTH. RAISED TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON SATURDAY NIGHT. 

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS NRN OHIO ON SUNDAY FORCING 
A STRONG COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. A 125 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET 
WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH THE ORIENTATION BECOMING 
NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY NEGATIVE. THIS RESULTS IN SOME INTERESTING 
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AS THE NAM IS SLOWER AND STRONGER 
WITH THE SURFACE LOW CROSSING LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY. THE STRONGER AND 
SLOWER LOW WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE OF AN OPPORTUNITY FOR NE OHIO TO 
DESTABILIZE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. 
INITIALLY LEANING TOWARDS THE NAM WHICH SOMETIMES SEEMS TO DO A 
BETTER JOB WITH AMPLIFICATION OF THE SURFACE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH 
THESE HIGHLY DYNAMIC SYSTEMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED 
NORTHEAST OHIO IN A SEE TEXT WITH A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORMS IN NE OHIO AND NW PA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NOT 
EXPECTING MUCH SUN...BUT IF TEMPERATURES CAN RECOVER INTO THE MID 
70S THEN MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH STRONG SHEAR AND 
UPWARD MOMENTUM. LOOKS LIKE FRONTAL TIMING DURING THE EARLY 
AFTERNOON WOULD PLACE BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR 
EAST WHERE THEY WILL ALIGN WITH PEAK HEATING BUT TIMING WILL 
CERTAINLY BE SOMETHING TO WATCH. 

COLD AIR SURGES SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LAKE 
EFFECT SHOWERS INCREASING. THIS WILL BE FOR A FAIRLY SHORT WINDOW AS 
THE TROUGH QUICKLY PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST AND VERY DRY AIR 
OVERSPREADS THE LAKE. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE COOL AND MUCH OF NE 
OH/NW PA WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 50S. NW OHIO SHOULD BE ABLE TO 
REACH THE LOW 60S WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED. 

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS 
AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETTING UP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR 
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MINS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW 40S BUT COULD 
SEE A FEW OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS DIP INTO THE 30S. HEIGHTS ALOFT 
REBOUND QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 6-8 DEGREES 
FROM MONDAYS HIGHS...EVEN AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THIS 
PERIOD. A RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. USED A BLEND OF 
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WILL FINALLY SPREAD SSW WIND GUSTS AVERAGING 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME OF THE THICKER CIRRUS
EXITS THE AREA. VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING. 

COMPLICATED FRONTAL SITUATION OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
COLD FRONT COMES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...DEVELOPING A
WAVE ON THE FRONT TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS SE MI.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE FROM THE WEST INTO TOL/FDY THIS
EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT...WEAKENING WITH TIME. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT
CROSSES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER. A SECONDARY FRONT/TROUGH
CROSSES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY BRINGING IN NORTHERLY WINDS
AND A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. NON-VFR IN THE SHOWERS/TS.
BETTER CHANCE OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME BEFORE MORNING. GUSTS AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING LINGERING OVER NE
OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FOR TODAY THE GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD 
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. AS THE WINDS INCREASE 
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR WILL BE MOVING IN ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND 
THAT MAY HELP KEEP THE WINDS FROM GETTING OUT OF CONTROL ON THE 
LAKE. AT THIS TIME LEANING TOWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS EXCEPT ON THE 
EXTREME EAST END WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND THE 
SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD CAUSE WAVES APPROACHING 3 TO 5 FEET. WILL HAVE 
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA THROUGH 9 PM. 

OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASING 
WINDS FROM THE WEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY 
NIGHT WHEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. AFTER THAT 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THAT WILL 
KEEP THE WINDS WESTERLY ON THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY 
EVENING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SPEEDS MAINLY ON THE 
EAST END OF THE LAKE AS THE WAVES WILL BE CHOPPY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE 
NORTHEAST AND THAT WILL MEAN AND EAST OR SOUTHEAST FLOW. AT THIS 
TIME THE WINDS SEEM LIGHT ENOUGH THAT IT WILL NOT PROMPT THE NEED 
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NEEDED ON THE LAKE 
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. MARINERS WILL NEED TO BE CAUTIOUS AS 
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KIELTYKA






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