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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 061430
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
930 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND A TROUGH
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY. BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD OVER OHIO AND REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES MADE TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST AS TEMPERATURE
WARM FROM RECORD LOWS. MORNING SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SNOW
COVER AND A VERY COLD START HIGHS WILL LIKELY BUT BELOW THESE
READINGS. WILL RAISE MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MAINLY OVER
THE FDY AND MNN REGION. A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER ILLINOIS WILL
SPREAD PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH MAY LIMIT WARMING TOO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NW PA. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT DROP BACK TOO FAR UNDER THESE CONDITIONS AND
HAVE LOWS UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...CLIPPER...AND PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA. BEST MOISTURE IS NOT AROUND FOR LONG. WITH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY GET TO 30-37.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
VERY MINIMAL FOR FAR NE OH/NW PA.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS. FOR NOW HAVE
CONTINUED A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...BUT IT
COULD BE A CASE WHERE EITHER WE ARE DRY COMPLETELY OR MAYBE THERE
IS SOME DRIZZLE. UPPER 20S FOR LOWS.

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES
SUNDAY EVENING. SO STILL WILL HAVE THE MENTION OF LOW PRECIP
CHANCES LINGER FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S. BY BY LATER MONDAY THE HIGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MILD AND MAINLY DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY A RIDGE WILL 
BE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE 
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS WITH THAT. THE GFS IS 
THE ONLY MODEL HINTING AT SOME LIGHT QPF...THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN 
MODELS ARE DRY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT AT THE MOMENT WILL 
KEEP IT DRY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST 
ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN MOVES EAST. ALL THE MODELS AGREE. THE ONLY 
DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS IS MUCH COLDER WITH THIS FEATURE AT THE 
SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE 00Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS KEEP IT 
MILD. LEANING THAT DIRECTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE HIGHS 
ESPECIALLY ARE TOUGH ALONG THE LAKESHORE. ANY KIND OF MODERATE WIND 
OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS COOLER THAN ONE WOULD NORMALLY
EXPECT.

NONE THE LESS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...DEW POINTS 
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING AT TIMES AND WITH THE SUN ANGLE...MELTING OF 
THE SNOW WILL OCCUR. SOME ICE MOVEMENT IS LIKELY IN STREAMS AND 
CREEKS. THIS THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY. A WEAK TROF
ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY. MOST MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP
SOME CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FEET. WILL GO
ALONG WITH THIS AND THEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND THEN
GO BACK TO MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO GO THROUGH DRY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH AT LEAST THE 
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A RIDGE JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THAT 
WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST WARM ADVECTION WINDS TO INCREASE ON THE LAKE. 
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY UNTIL A FRONT 
MOVES THROUGH. THE WINDS A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE GROUND 
WILL BE OVER 30 KNOTS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE 
IT IS WARM ADVECTION NOT EXPECTING WINDS OF THAT STRENGTH TO MIX 
DOWN. IN THE COLD ADVECTION AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY 
EVENING THE WINDS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. ANOTHER 
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY AND THE WINDS WILL BE EVEN 
LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THAT 
WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY. IT 
WILL BE A MAINLY WARM ADVECTION FLOW...NOT EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED 
WINDS TO EXCEED 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA






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