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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 301607
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1207 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT NOON THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR GKJ TO NEAR
YOUNGSTOWN TO SOUTH OF MANSFIELD. IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH.
SOME DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SHOWERS NEAR THE
FRONT. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY OVER
NE OH AND NW PA. ADJUSTED THE HIGHS DOWN SOME BASED ON THE LATE
MORNING TEMPERATURE READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERED SOME LOW PRECIP CHANCES INTO TONIGHT WITH UPPER LOW
OVERHEAD AND A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF A TROUGH. MOISTURE
RATHER SHALLOW. UPPER ENERGY PULLS OUT FOR THE OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE
ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BLANKETED BY CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL
OF THE NIGHT WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. CORE OF
COLDER AIR ALOFT STAYS TO OUR WEST. THEREFORE HAVE LOWS TONIGHT
THAT ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE.

CANT REALLY SAY THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY. STILL LINGERED A SILENT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
OUT EAST WITH SOME WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME LINGERING MOISTURE.
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS TO THE WEST ACROSS MI/IND. WENT ON THE COOL
SIDE OF GUIDANCE OR LOWER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST.

RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BY THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
MODERATE WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW. MET GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING
TEMPERATURES A HANDFUL OF DEGREES COOLER THAN THE MAV GUIDANCE.
CANT SEE HOW WE CAN BE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. 

UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED AS A LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS ONTARIO CANADA. THIS WILL TAKE A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. TIMING IS A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT BY MUCH. BY 12Z FRIDAY
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HAVE REACHED WESTERN OHIO. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. WITH
GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AND UPPER DYNAMICS STILL FEEL GOOD ABOUT
PRECIP CHANCES OF 70 PERCENT. AS LONG AS TIMING STICKS THAN THIS
CAN BE RAISED HIGHER. ADDED THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER WITH OPTIMAL
DAYTIME TIMING WE MAY BE ABLE TO GET SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HAMPERED BY THE RAIN FRIDAY. WILL GO WITH
UPPER 60S. AS IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW...IT SHOULD BE RAIN FREE AFTER
THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. H8 TEMPS FALL TO OR BELOW 0C BY
SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO 
SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OVER THE 
GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT SLOWER ON THE EASTWARD 
PROGRESS. THE BOUNDARY FLOW IN THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT MORE SOUTHWEST. 
850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -2C. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 
SHOWERS ANYWHERE SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT BUT THE BEST CHANCE 
OF COURSE WILL BE FROM THE LAKE ERIE CONTRIBUTION. WILL CONTINUE 
WITH A "CHANCE" OF SHOWERS IN THE SNOWBELT BUT EVENTUALLY WE WILL 
HAVE TO TRY AND PIN DOWN THE BEST LOCATION AND TIME AND USE "LIKELY" 
IN THE SNOWBELT. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S SATURDAY. 

THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PULL OUT QUICKLY ON SUNDAY. ALL OF THE 
MODELS SHOW SOME RIDGING EARLY SUNDAY BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT 
WAVE ALSO SHOWS UP ON ALL OF THE MODELS. NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY WE 
WILL SEE NEW SHOWERS DEVELOP. IT WILL ALSO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH ALOFT 
FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY TRY TO SHIFT 
TOWARD BUFFALO AT SOME POINT. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE 
SNOW BELT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE SUNDAY. PROBABLY A SOMEWHAT 
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONTINUED COOL 
WITH HIGHS PROBABLY NOT MUCH BETTER THEN THE LOWER 60S SUNDAY AND 
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST THIS
MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SLOW AND
REDEVELOP SOMEWHAT ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT. IFR CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS NW
OHIO THIS AFTERNOON BUT STRATUS AND IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
LINGER OR REDEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MOIST
AND THE TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS OVERHEAD.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL 
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH ON THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE. THE 
WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR SOMEWHAT SLOWER ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE 
AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT. THE WIND MAY 
BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE FOR MUCH OF THE 
DAY. EVENTUALLY THE WIND WILL VEER TO A MORE NORTHEAST DIRECTION 
TONIGHT AND THEN VEER TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF 
THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE STRONGER AND MARINERS CAN EXPECT A MORE 
TYPICAL AUTUMN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON LAKE ERIE WHERE THE WIND 
PICKS UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST RATHER QUICKLY FRIDAY AFTER THE 
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL QUICKLY EXCEED SMALL 
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FRIDAY AND COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE FRIDAY 
INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY AND BACK MORE 
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXCEED SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK






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