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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 191338
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
938 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT 
LAKES THIS WEEKEND...THEN MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY 
NIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE AIRMASS IF
FAIRLY DRY...HOWEVER...SOME CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST
FLOW...IT SHOULD NOT BECOME THAT WIDESPREAD...MOSTLY SUNNY WILL
HANDLE IT. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO CHANGE AT
THIS TIME.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY...ALBEIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. 
THE LARGE CANADIAN HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL SLIDE 
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. AS IT DOES THE THE 
CIRRUS SHIELD FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST.  WITH 
850MB TEMPS OF 2-6C NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS.  
HOWEVER...WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE IT WILL CONSIDERABLY 
COLDER ALONG THE LAKESHORE THAN FURTHER INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE 
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD 
WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE FLOW TURN TO 
THE SOUTH.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR EASTER.  FOR SUNDAY THE 
NAM CONTINUES TO BE WARMER THAN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.  LEANED 
TOWARD THE WARMER NAM...BUT CUT TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO. THE WARM UP 
WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER.   MODELS ARE COMING INTO MUCH BETTER 
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.   MODELS CONTINUE TO 
MOVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES MONDAY 
NIGHT...DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.  THE GFS IS 
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM AND THE ECMWF SO FOR NOW WILL JUST GO 
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT SOME 
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL OF THE MODELS BRING A TRAILING SHORT WAVE INTO THE LONG WAVE 
TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE STILL TO THE WEST 
THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NE 
OH/NW PA. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY...IF IT WERE TO STAY CLOUDY AND 
SHOWERY ALL DAY THEN IT COULD BE CHILLY. CONSIDERED MENTIONING SNOW 
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SINCE THE 850 MB TEMP IS PROGGED TO DROP TO 
-4C BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN 
SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT 
RELATIVELY STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER 
MIDWEST. SOME WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY 
THURSDAY MORNING AND CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER ALTHOUGH THE ODDS 
WOULD FAVOR A DRY DAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. 

NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT YET... 
PROBABLY SOME TIME ON FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE TWO FRONTS OR A 
PREFRONTAL TROUGH. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND WILL KEEP THE 
TEMPERATURES MILD ON FRIDAY SINCE IT APPEARS THE COLDER AIR WILL 
HANG BACK AND NOT ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH. VFR WITH A FEW PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS THIS
MORNING THEN PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS. THE EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND WILL
BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY. VFR CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES COMBINED WITH THE NORTHEAST WIND 
WILL MAKE THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE CHOPPY TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS 
MORNING. JUST ENOUGH NORTHEAST FETCH AND GRADIENT THIS MORNING THAT 
WE WILL NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO START THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD 
SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY AND I AM GUESSING THAT BY 10 AM WE CAN GET THE 
WIND AND WAVES JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. 

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE BY THIS EVENING AND THE WIND 
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. WINDS WILL VEER MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST 
TONIGHT ITO SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH SUNDAY FOR A 
LAKE BREEZE IN MOST AREAS. THE SOUTH GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGER BY 
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT BUT THE WIND 
AND WAVES WILL LIKELY NOT PICK UP ON THE LAKE UNTIL AFTER THE COLD 
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK







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