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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 230120
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
920 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. 
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS LOW 
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. 
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE 
TO THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO 
CANADA WILL EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND BUMPED UP TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP SHORTLY AS SHORT WAVE NOW MOVING OVER LAKE
ERIE FROM LOWER MICHIGAN.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO 
MOVE WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
WILL ROTATE EAST TO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY MORNING ALLOWING 
FOR A RETURN TO COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF 
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE 
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST 
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE 
NIGHT FORCING THE COLDER AIR OUT OF THE NORTH INTO THE AREA. 850 MB 
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BETWEEN -4 AND -6 DEGREES C 
OVERNIGHT AND THIS COULD SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LAKE 
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN...ESPECIALLY IN THE 
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE EAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 
AT THIS TIME.

DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...LOOKING AT LOWS OVERNIGHT DROPPING 
INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE WEST WHERE CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE. SOME 
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS COULD SPREAD INTO THAT AREA BUT THIS ACTIVITY 
IS DIURNAL IN NATURE AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. THIS WILL 
HELP WITH SOME OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWER TEMPERATURES 
INTO THE LOWER 30S. CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS WILL BE UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE NEAR THE SHORE LINE AND LOOKING AT LOWER TO 
MIDDLE 30S IN THIS AREA FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE EAST SLOWLY AND BECOME NEARLY 
STATIONARY ALONG THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY LARGE OMEGA 
BLOCK SHIFTS EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL 
EVENTUALLY PUSH THE PRECIPITATION THREAT OUT OF THE REGION. IN THE 
MEAN TIME...DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH AXIS BEING IN THE 
PROXIMITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WE CAN EXPECT SOME ACTIVE WEATHER 
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

SURFACE RIDGE AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION THREAT 
FOR LAKE EFFECT GOING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY 
DISSIPATE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. 
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY BUT AT 
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BE DRY. COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST 
TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND WILL NOT REALLY HAVE 
A GOOD SOURCE OF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
COLD FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BUT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHOWERS 
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

ONCE THE SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...WE 
SHOULD START TO SEE TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS 
THURSDAY AND WELL INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE 
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY...HIGHS MAY BE EARLY IN THE DAY WITH FALLING 
TEMPERATURES. BUT THIS ALL IS CONTINGENT ON WHETHER THE COLD FRONT 
SLOWS ITS FORWARD MOTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS SATURDAY WITH MODELS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR HOWEVER
THERE WERE SOME DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST THE ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE RH TRAVERSING THE RIDGE INTO THE
LOWER LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...MODELS HAVE LOW PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA WHILE A SURFACE HIGH IS ONTARIO NOSING SE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THE MOST IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE FOR THE AREA WILL
BE WHERE THE WARM FRONT EAST OF THE LOW WILL REACH. THE GFS HAS
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA AND THE WARM FRONT/BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS SWLY FLOW
IN THE AREA AND +12 850MB TEMPS...THE COLD AIR JUST TO OUR NORTH.
GIVEN THOSE DIFFERENCES WILL GO WITH WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED WHICH TENDS TO HAVE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WHICH WOULD BE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WARM ECMWF
AND THE COOL GFS. MAIN WX MAKER WILL BE THE LOW AS IT MOVES OUT OF
NEBRASKA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
RETURNING MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW...CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN TO ARRIVE AND
MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A PERIOD OF VFR CIGS THIS EVENING. FROM
ABOUT KCLE EAST EXPECT CIGS TO DIP TO MVFR LATER THIS EVENING AS
COLD AIR CONTINUES ACROSS LAKE ERIE. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING SOME
SHOWERS NEAR YYZ. THESE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF THE
AREA IN A FEW HOURS. WILL KEEP KCLE AND KCAK DRY BUT KERI AND KYNG
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RAIN. DRY AIR WILL FINALLY WIN OUT LATER
TONIGHT AND SKIES OVER THE WEST 1/2 OF THE AREA SHOULD BE MAINLY
CLEAR BY 06Z. IT WILL TAKE TILL LATER WEDNESDAY AM FOR THE CIGS TO
DIS SPATE IN THE EAST. WNW TO NW FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS LIKELY NEAR LAKE ERIE. THE FLOW AT KCLE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF 320.  

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THU NIGHT THRU SAT...ESPECIALLY
IN NE OH AND NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE 
ON THE LAKE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO 
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKE. THURSDAY 
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FROM THE DAKOTAS TO IOWA WHILE THE HIGH WILL BE 
EAST OF THE LAKE. LOOK FOR WINDS TO TURN EAST/NORTHEAST DOWN THE 
AXIS OF THE LAKE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE 
DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE LOW WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES 
AS IT DEEPENS. EXPECT EASTERLY FLOW TO GO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT 
AT AROUND 20 KNOTS FOLLOWED BY A CHANGE TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AS THE 
LOW PASSES. WINDS WILL TURN WEST/NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO 
SATURDAY AT 20-25 KNOTS.  EXPECT FREQUENT AND EXTENDED PERIODS WHERE 
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...DJB/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...TK






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