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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 221710
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
110 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR 
CAPE COD BY FRIDAY WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS 
SPREADS UP THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST 
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS 
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST 
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE 
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VIRTUALLY NO RETURNS ON RADAR MIDDAY. HAD A REPORT OF MIST/DRIZZLE
FROM THE MANSFIELD AREA. THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED THE CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM TODAY AND TONIGHT AND REPLACED IT
WITH SOME DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES HAVE GONE NO WHERE TODAY AND
LOWERED HIGHS TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF WHERE THEY ARE NOW AT
NOON. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST BY
THE END OF THE DAY THERE WILL BE SOME EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER LATE. SOME CLEARING WORKING IN FROM ONTARIO
AND EXPECT SOME SUN FROM THE ISLANDS TO FREMONT FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS OFF TO THE NE THRU FRI. AN 
UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BUT LOOKS TO GET 
FLATTENED AS A SERIES OF S/W'S MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS AND 
ACROSS THE LAKES. THE S/W ON SAT WILL ALSO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT 
THRU THE AREA. MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THESE WEAK FEATURES IS TOUGH 
BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR LIGHT SHRA ANYTIME LATE 
THU NIGHT THRU SAT. WILL INCREASE POPS ENOUGH TO SHOW SLIGHT TO 
SMALL CHANCES FOR THE SHRA ALONG WITH INCREASING THE CLOUD COVER.

TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE UPWARD THU INTO SAT AS THE 
COLD POCKET WITH THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FIND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE 
SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THERE IS SOME 
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THE NEXT SHORT WAVE CAN KNOCK DOWN THE 
RIDGE AND THE TIMING ON THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. 

SUNDAY MAY START CLOUDY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST BUT THE SURFACE 
HIGH SHOULD BUILD IN WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR 
NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE IT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY.

MONDAY SHOULD BE WARMER...LOOKING AT PERHAPS 70 DEGREES AS THE SOUTH 
FLOW PICKS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. TUESDAY WOULD BE THE MAIN DAY 
IN QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE FRONT CAN MOVE EAST. I DO NOT LIKE TO 
ASSUME THAT THE RIDGE WILL HOLD FRONTS BACK THIS LATE IN THE SEASON 
AND WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NW OHIO TUESDAY AND 
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY 
WILL GET AS WARM AS THEY CAN UNTIL THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND SHOWERS 
ARRIVE. WILL OPT FOR HIGHER TEMPS...UPPER 60S/NR 70... ACROSS NE 
OH/NW PA AND BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE FOR NW OHIO WHERE THERE 
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOOK FOR GRADUAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE EVENING HOURS
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES IN THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST.

CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT COULD YIELD SOME PATCHY FOG BY MORNING. 
...HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS SHOULD DROP ENOUGH THAT THE FOG 
SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD.

WINDS OVER LAND AREAS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS...AND 5 KNOTS OR
LESS TONIGHT.  

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BRISK NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST TODAY...ONLY DIMINISHING 
SLIGHTLY...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT 
CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO 
BUILD EAST BY THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON THE WEST HALF OF 
THE LAKE BUT REMAIN RATHER BRISK ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WILL 
EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE WESTERN 
BASIN AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS. 
WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL PART OF THE CENTRAL BASIN EARLY ON THURSDAY 
BUT I AM NOT SURE THE EAST LAKESHORE MAY NEED TO HAVE THE SMALL 
CRAFT EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. 

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON 
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAKER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED 
TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN 
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...KOSARIK






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