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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 312340
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
740 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR TYPE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE...THIS TIME CENTERED
OVER NEW ENGLAND...WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION TO END
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION JUST SW OF FORECAST AREA. SINCE STILL CANT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSRA SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE
FORECAST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... CUMULUS WILL FADE AS WE NEAR SUNSET.
THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW POP UP SHOWERS...BUT THEY ARE VERY SMALL IN
AREAL COVERAGE. WILL CONTINUE THE 20 PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD TONIGHT WITH 60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY. IN GENERAL UPPER
RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE IS A SMALL CUT OFF VORT MAX/EDDY THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY DRIFT ACROSS OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THAT TUESDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TS POPPING UP IN
THE HEAT OF THE DAY. MAYBE COVERAGE MAY BE A BIT MORE WITH NOTED
FEATURE ALOFT. MID/UPPER 80S AGAIN TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY NOT MUCH
DIFFERENT. 

A SHORTWAVE WILL TOP THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER OUR
AREA...ESSENTIALLY RETROGRADING IT WESTWARD. THIS WILL TAKE A
BACKDOOR LIKE COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL
ACTUALLY HAVE PRECIP CHANCES AS HIGH AS 30 PERCENT WITH THIS
IDENTIFIABLE FEATURE. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING WITH
MID/UPPER 80S...BUT WONDER IF IT WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER
WITH A LITTLE EXTRA CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ONLY WRINKLE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A SMALL TROUGH THAT 
APPEARS AT 500 MB ON FRIDAY. IT SEEMS TO EVOLVE AS A TROUGH THAT 
CREEPS IN UNDER THE RIDGE AT THE SAME TIME A SHORT WAVE IS TOPPING 
THE RIDGE.  NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN SUCH A WEAK FEATURE BUT IT 
DOES APPEAR ON ALL OF THE EXTENDED MODELS. GIVEN THE HEAT AND 
HUMIDITY IN PLACE... WILL INCLUDE A SMALL CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM 
ON FRIDAY. IF THIS FEATURE DEVELOPS IT COULD LINGER IN THE LIGHT 
FLOW ALOFT...BUT GIVEN THE RIDGE ALOFT...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST 
OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE WELL IN THE 80S TO 
AROUND 90 EXCEPT ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE WHERE THE NORTHEAST FLOW 
WILL PERSIST ON FRIDAY AND PERHAPS INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF THE TAF CYCLE WITH HIGH 
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR VISIBILITIES
DEVELOPING IN THE 8-12Z WINDOW WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND A SHALLOW
INVERSION. THERE IS A CHANCE SOME SITES COULD BRIEFLY DIP TO IFR
JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THAT OCCURRENCE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AT LESS THAT 5
KNOTS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5-10 KNOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE AT CLE/ERI TUES AFTERNOON WHERE A WEST NORTHWEST
LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG. ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE AROUND EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
A LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH AN ONSHORE/OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND 
EACH DAY/NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN 
CANADA BY THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHEAST AND A 
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY ON LAKE 
ERIE. THE GRADIENT SHOULD BE WEAK AND WIND SHOULD BE RELATIVELY 
LIGHT. THE FLOW SHOULD VEER MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH THIS 
WEEKEND ALTHOUGH AN ONSHORE WIND IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KOSARIK



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