Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Cleveland, OH banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KCLE 300456
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1256 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW YORK MOVES EAST IT WILL ALLOW AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND STORM ACTIVITY STARTING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ADDED A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS PER THE RADAR. IT SHOULD DECREASE. ELSEWHERE PARTLY CLOUDY
SHOULD BE OK. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SOME OF THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
COULD SEE SOME STRAY STORMS IN THE FAR WEST BEFORE NOON. FOCUS
FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BECOME AVAILABLE IN THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC
HIGH..BUT NOT CONVINCED THIS WILL BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED WITH A
WEAK CAP TO GENERATE STORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THERE WILL BE A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS KEEPING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION...WELL ABOVE THE UPPER 70
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH DEW POINTS
WILL MAKE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THE JET
DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY
IMPROVES EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASED FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WE WILL SEE A LOWERING OF POPS FROM NW WITH REDUCED
FORCING. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE
DAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...WHERE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
THE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.8". POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WITHOUT STORMS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF LABOR DAY. THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WE COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JET STREAM CONTINUES TO TRACK ZONALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER 
STATES TAKING A SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT 
WILL MAKE LITTLE SOUTHERN PROGRESS LIKELY DISSIPATING OVER THE OHIO 
VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY AND 
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON DECK FOR FRIDAY. OVERALL DECENT 
MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT WITH THE ZONAL FLOW TIMING MAY BE OFF THIS FAR 
OUT. CENTERED PRECIP CHANCES AROUND FRONTAL ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL 
RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT FOR TOL/FDY AS 2K FT WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS.
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT MODELS DIFFER ON THE
TIMING. NAM DEVELOPS CONVECTION IN THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT. FOR TAFS COMPROMISED AND PUT
IN VCTS FROM CLE WEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS AND A CHOPPY LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY ARE THE MAIN 
CONCERNS FOR THE MARINE FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST 
TONIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR SATURDAY...AND 
THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF 
WIND FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 
20 KNOTS ON THE LAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHOPPY LAKE...WITH THE 
POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES 
ARE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY 
NIGHT...CLEARING OUT ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT NEVER REALLY CROSSES 
THE LAKE THIS WEEKEND...BUT INSTEAD WEAKENS OVERHEAD. LIGHTER 
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD 
CROSS THE LAKE ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN






National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy