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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 020808
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
408 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY EXTENDING FROM LOW 
PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXPAND OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN TO THE EAST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SWATH OF RAIN CAN BE SEEN ON UPSTREAM RADARS SPREADING NORTHEAST 
ACROSS INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE 
PULLED NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE 
PLAINS. THE 00Z SOUNDING OUT OF ILX SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN 
THE COLUMN AHEAD OF THIS DEEPER PUSH OF MOISTURE AND THIS NOW 
RESIDES OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE STRONGER 
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FOCUSED NEAR 700MB AND THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR 
MAY CAUSE SOME EVAPORATION INITIALLY. THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE 
LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH AND TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THE DEEP CONVECTION 
TO RESIDE ON THE SE FLANK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. WILL CARRY A 
HIGH POP FOR JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH WILL ONLY 
CARRY A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS(BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL 
BE LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN CENTRAL OHIO). 
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A HALF INCH OR LESS. 

LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY THIS MORNING WITH THE 
TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. THIS WEAK 
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TOLEDO AROUND NOON...CLEVELAND 
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND YOUNGSTOWN BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE 
INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST...THE FRONT WILL 
INTERACT WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM 
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED OUR SE TIER OF COUNTIES IN THE SLIGHT 
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. EXPECTING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT 
OF CLOUD COVER TO HAVE A LIMITING EFFECT ON HEATING/INSTABILITY 
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES OF 
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BUT 
CAN NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM IF HEATING IS STRONGER THAN 
EXPECTED. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. 
IT LOOKS LIKE A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER LAKE ERIE ON 
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH THIS EVENING AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH 
CONVERGENCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE. LEFT A LOW 
POP BOTH OVER THE LAKE AND ALONG THE EASTERN LAKESHORE FOR A PORTION 
OF THE NIGHT. INLAND AREAS...ESPECIALLY OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD 
SEE SOME FOG OR STRATUS GIVEN THE LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE 
COUPLED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL 
BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. 

THE AIRMASS DOES NOT COOL MUCH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND 
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL 
ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT IN THE HUMIDITY WHICH 
WILL BE LOWER AND MORE PLEASANT WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 DEGREES. 
MAINLY JUST SCATTERED CU ON WEDNESDAY ONCE ANY MORNING CLOUDS BURN 
OFF.

HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND A WARM FRONT WILL 
LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE 
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THEN 
CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. ENOUGH DRY AIR SHOULD 
STILL BE IN PLACE ON THURSDAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA TO STAY DRY. 
LEFT THE 20 POP IN THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE DOES 
START TO INCREASE ALTHOUGH THE MORE FOCUSED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL 
BE WELL TO THE NORTH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH 
TOWARDS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. LOWERED POPS DURING THE MORNING HOURS 
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THAT SHOULD STRUGGLE TO SEE ANY 
PRECIPITATION UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND 
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH A FEW SPOTS MAKING A RUN AT THE 
UPPER 80S.   

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING 
A COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR AND HIGH 
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. DONT THINK THE DAY WILL BEGIN DRY HOWEVER 
AS THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER THAN THE GFS IN MOVING MOISTURE OUT OF 
THE AREA.  WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE MORNING 
SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH. 
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY LOOK DRY.  TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AFTER AN 
ABOVE NORMAL END TO THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST WITH BEST GUESS POSITION FROM
CENTRAL LWR MI SW INTO MO. MCS ACROSS MO AND SRN IL WHILE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG WITH A LITTLE THUNDER ACROSS FAR EASTERN
ERIE COUNTY PA AND EAST INTO WRN NY. THAT ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
EAST OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HRRR DOES SHOW
SOME REDEVELOPMENT OVER ERIE COUNTY AND WILL ACCOUNT FOR THAT IN
THE TAF. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA THIS HOURS ALTHOUGH
THE HRRR DOES SHOW ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST MOVING INTO THE AREA
TOWARDS MORNING. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN SOUTH
OF OUR AREA...TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN OHIO...HOWEVER SO
EXPECT SOME PRECIP TO EXTEND NORTH AND AFFECT THE AREA. BROUGHT
SHOWERS INTO KTOL/KFDY AROUND 10Z AND KCLE/KMFD 11-12Z AND KERI-
KYNG 14-15Z. ALSO INCLUDED VCTS BUT FOR NOW DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN
TEMPO GROUPS. HELD ONTO MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
MORNING GIVEN DEEP HIGH RH ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN
MOVING IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 


OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL BEGIN TODAY CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA MAINLY EAST OF 
CONNEAUT BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST JUST BELOW. WINDS 
TODAY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT DUE IN 
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL TURN WEST TO BRIEFLY 
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND 
WEDNESDAY.  THURSDAY THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST AND A LOW WILL BE 
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL AGAIN SETUP SOUTHWEST 
FLOW ON THE LAKE THURSDAY INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. THE LOW WILL 
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE 
LAKE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT 
AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH CLOSE...NO NEAR TERM 
HEADLINES FOR NOW.  FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WE COULD REACH SMALL CRAFT 
CRITERIA AS WINDS TURN NORTHWEST. 

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK






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