000
FXUS61 KCLE 191736
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
136 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY MID WEEK. AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES...THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STEADILY INCREASE DAY TO DAY AS
THE INSTABILITY RISES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OHIO WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH
OF COLUMBUS WHERE THE BUILD-UP IS A LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE AND
DEWPOINTS ARE A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER. THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY SHALLOW SO FAR WITH NO LIGHTNING AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE WARM
AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS. GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH JUST A
20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST...MAINLY SOUTH OF A MNN-MFD-YNG LINE. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS FORMING THIS MORNING
ALONG THE LAKEFRONT. THESE CLOUDS COULD HELP SLOW THE DAYTIME WARM
UP...BUT GIVEN A MORNING TEMPERATURE IN THE 60S FOR CLE AND ERI
CONDITIONS ALREADY HAVE A FAVORABLE START TO REACH 80. WITH THE
WARM FRONT STILL STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS LOW TODAY. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION AS A WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE RUNNING FROM YOUNGSTOWN
TO MARION COULD SUPPORT SOME STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS WEAK SO EVEN IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS THE
DURATION AND STRENGTH ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE SEVERE. PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND H850 TEMPS AROUND 13C WILL ALLOW SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH OF FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...SO BRING IN
A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY MORNING HOURS...BUT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE
FRONT LOCATED TO THE NORTH...THERE ISN'T ANYTHING NOTABLE TO
DISTINGUISH WHICH AREAS ARE MORE LIKELY TO RECEIVE SHOWERS. AGAIN
LIKE SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT NOTABLE...BUT THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED
STORMS. THE ACTIVITY PICKS UP TUESDAY AS WEAK ELONGATED SHORTWAVE
CLIPS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. THE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
LOCATION OF A BOUNDARY ALONG THE LAKE...BUT HAVE LEANED TOWARDS
THE NAM IN KEEPING THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY
THE THE NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND WITH
DECENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN THE FAIRLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WE
CAN EXPECT MORE THAN THE HIT AND MISS STORM ACTIVITY OF THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. THE INCREASED CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
70S ON WEDNESDAY WHILE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AREAS ESPECIALLY IN
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL SEE 80S. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
SLOWING THIS SYSTEM DOWN...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THAN
WEDNESDAYS HIGHS COULD BE NOTABLY WARMER. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE
COOLING OFF TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR THE LAST HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. 
AT THIS TIME JUST GOING WITH A 50 POP ON THURSDAY...IT WILL PROBABLY 
HAVE TO BE RAISED. THE GFS IS SLOWER IN BUILDING IN HIGH PRESSURE 
FOR FRIDAY THAN THE ECMWF. KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING ON 
FRIDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGH 
PRESSURE DOMINATING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHER DEW POINT AIR HAS MOVED NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR MORE CUMULUS TO DEVELOP THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS.
WIDESPREAD CU AROUND 4KFT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS. I WILL PUT VICINITY
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. BRIEF MVFR
WITH HAZE IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. A
LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AND IMPACT ERI AND POSSIBLY CLE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS AND WAVES TODAY AND  MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL NOT BE 
CONDUCIVE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. A WEAK RIDGE WEST TO EAST JUST 
NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER 
CENTRAL OHIO WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE LAKE AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY. 
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHERLY 
FLOW WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND SOME IMPULSES WILL BE MOVING 
THROUGH...THIS WILL MEAN A THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING AND INTENSITY IS STILL IN QUESTION...SPECIAL 
MARINE WARNINGS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...KEC/JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...GARNET
MARINE...KIELTYKA