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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 241730
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
130 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST BY SATURDAY AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COOL
AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUD FIELD DEVELOPED A BIT MORE DENSE THAN ANTICIPATED BUT
EXPECTATION IS THAT THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID
EROSION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING LEADING INTO A MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. MIXING SHOULD PICK UP AS WELL DROPPING DEW POINTS
INTO THE LOWER 50S TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S. THE AMOUNT OF MIXING
THIS AFTERNOON WILL GREATLY DETERMINE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 70S...BUT WITH
A REDUCTION IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP PUSH MOST OF THE
AREA INTO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S AND LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE 
DROPPING TO THESE LEVELS...PROBABLY EVEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER 
WHERE THERE IS GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND IN THE TRADITIONAL COOL 
SPOTS. LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF 
RECORD LOWS AND I BELIEVE IT. FORECAST LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM 
THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S...A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER AT THE 
LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE AND IN URBAN AREAS.

SUNNY FRIDAY. PERHAPS A FEW CU ACROSS INLAND NE OH/NW PA AND FEW 
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHS GENERALLY 75 TO 
80. 

A BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE 
UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW LEVEL 
JET AND WARM FRONTOGENESIS. SEE NO REASON THAT THE SHOWERS AND 
STORMS THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE FORECAST 
AREA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET FLATTENS AND SPREADS ACROSS THE LOWER 
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. IT WILL LIKELY NOT RAIN ALL DAY BUT THERE 
IS AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD FROM 
WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE GFS TRIES TO WEDGE SOME 
VERY WARM AIR INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY PROGGING 850 MB TEMPERATURES 
UP TO 19C. THE OTHER MODELS ARE A LITTLE COOLER. DO NOT WANT TO GO 
ALL OUT ON THE WARMTH GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. 
WILL FORECAST HIGHS GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. NOT SURE HOW 
FAST NEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP...PERHAPS EAST AND SOUTH OF 
TOLEDO? WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. HIGH 
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...COULD 
BE ANYWHERE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE MID 80S. THE FORECAST WILL 
COMPROMISE TOWARD THE MIDDLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT LOOKING VERY GOOD RIGHT NOW AND IS VERY 
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW DURING THE WINTER MONTHS.  AMPLIFICATION OF 
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WEST IS KEEPING THE HOT DRY SUMMER 
WEATHER OUT IN THE WEST WHILE THE AMPLIFICATION REFLECTS ITSELF AS A 
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS TREND CONTINUES TO 
SEND WAVE AFTER WAVE OF COLD AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER A 
BRIEF WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND...WE SEE ANOTHER DEEP DIGGING TROUGH 
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS 
MEANS ANOTHER ROUND OF COOL FALL AND SPRING LIKE AIR EXPECTED OVER 
THE REGION DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. I WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN 
THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS ROUND 
ACTUALLY LOOKS A BIT COOLER THAN THE CURRENT ROUND AND I MAY BE ON 
THE HIGH SIDE FOR TEMPERATURES IN SOME LOCATIONS. WILL NEED TO KEEP 
AN EYE ON THIS. WITH THE COLD AIR COMES THE THREAT FOR LAKE EFFECT 
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH A SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE AS WEAK SURFACE 
TROUGHS ROTATE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. CURRENT LOW END VFR CUMULUS TO FADE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL CALM DOWN AND WE WILL GO
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR FRIDAY...WITH A
LAKE BREEZE AT ERIE. WILL GET SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPILL OVER
INTO WESTERN OHIO BY AFTERNOON FRIDAY. A FEW CUMULUS TOMORROW TOO.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SAT THRU MON.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CONTINUED TO RUN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND RIP CURRENT
RISK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON BUOY REPORTS AND A MARINA
REPORT...4 FOOTERS STILL ONGOING/LIKELY. EXPECTING A SUSTAINED
NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 15 KNOTS AND THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
4 FOOTERS A LITTLE LONGER. WINDS/WAVES WILL DIMINISH BY THIS
EVENING.

SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE LAKE FRIDAY AND INCREASES TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND INCREASES AS GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD LOW PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
LAKE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PUSHES OFF THE EAST ON MONDAY
AND WILL LIKELY NEED MORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AGAIN MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     LEZ143>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...LOMBARDY/OUDEMAN






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