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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 212304
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
705 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS BUT NO BIG CHANGES
TO FORECAST FOR THE UPDATE. 

ORIGINAL...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN
ONTARIO CANADA HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA. UPSTREAM A SECONDARY
FRONT/TROUGH WAS SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH
WILL CROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE AND COLD POOL ALOFT
GENERATING INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN OHIO/NW PA THIS
EVENING. WHILE SHOWER COVERAGE IS MOST EXPANSIVE NOW THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...THE LAKE WILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE FOR
OUR AREA...SPECIFICALLY THE SNOWBELT WITH H8 TEMPS DROPPING TO
BELOW 5C. CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS EVENING EITHER.
TEMPS NOT COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUSTAIN ANY THUNDER THREAT
OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING GOING
INTO THIS EVENING AND RANGING FROM 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN REACHES OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA TO 70 PERCENT FOR
NE OH/NW PA. LINGER THE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SNOWBELT THROUGH
THE NIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NNW WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERED THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY
BEFORE MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED. COOL AIRMASS OVERHEAD AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE EDGING IN FROM THE WEST. A LOT OF CLOUD COVER
WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE IN THE 50S.
LOCATIONS ON THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS SUCH AS TOL/FDY/MNN SHOULD BE
ABLE TO REACH 60.

PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BECOMES BLOCKED AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE THE
DECREASING CLOUD TREND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO REACH 40...IF NOT UPPER UPPER 30S IF SKIES CLEAR WELL. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH WHAT THE CLOUD COVER DOES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SLOW TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION GOING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM 
FORECAST WITH A DRY FORECAST ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 
LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER LAKE ERIE WILL WEAKEN SOME BY THE END OF 
THE NIGHT THEN SHIFT FURTHER EAST MONDAY. SCT SHRA AND A FEW TSRA 
WORKING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD TRANSITION TO WIDELY SCT 
LAKE EFFECT SHRA AFFECTING JUST THE SNOWBELT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A 
FEW OF THESE SHRA POSSIBLY HANGING AROUND THE SNOWBELT INTO EARLY 
MON AFTERNOON.

FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS SHOULD TRY AND DOMINATE ALL BUT THE FAR 
WEST PART OF THE AREA INTO MON MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AND 
PUSHING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST MON SHOULD LEAD TO IMPROVING CIGS 
FROM WEST TO EAST MIDDAY MON THRU MON EVE.

NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL SETTLE DOWN OVER THE NEXT HOUR 
OR TWO.

.OUTLOOK...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN 
ITS WAKE. ALREADY HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING AND THIS LOOKS 
GOOD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH AND REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT. 
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE MONDAY MORNING ALLOWING THE SMALL 
CRAFT TO END ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN. THE LONGER FETCH EVEN WITH 
DECREASING WINDS WILL KEEP THE WAVES UP ENOUGH TO KEEP 3 TO 5 
FOOTERS GOING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LARGER WAVES THIS EVENING 
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY ACROSS THE EAST WILL BE LARGE ENOUGH TO INCREASE 
THE RIP RISK.

VARIABLES AMOUNTS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DRIFT ACROSS LAKE ERIE 
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A CALM LAKE WITH LIGHT 
WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...MULLEN









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