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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 232217
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
617 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND 
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN LOWER 
MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS 
THE REGION. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION 
MID DAY FRIDAY. A TROUGH WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA FRIDAY 
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
NO CHANGES FOR 630 UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION AND CONTINUE TO PUSH MUCH DRIER
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE DRIER AIR IS ALREADY MAKING ITS PRESENCE
KNOWN AT THIS TIME AS CLOUDS QUICKLY THIN OUT AND DISSIPATE.
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDNIGHT BUT THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL
RETURN ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST BY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO THE CLEARING SKIES AND DECOUPLING TAKING PLACE TO ALLOW WINDS 
TO DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EXPECTING ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT 
WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S BUT INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE EAST. 
TENDER BUDS THAT HAVE BEGUN TO SPROUT WILL NEED TO BE PROTECTED FROM 
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY ALLOWING 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST. THIS WILL GIVE THE FORECAST AREA 
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE DAY.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY 
THURSDAY EVENING FORCING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE 
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE 
WEST AND BRING WITH IT SOME MOISTURE. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH 
THE FRONT BUT FRONT APPEARS IT WILL BE POTENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME 
SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TIMING APPEARS IT WILL BE LATE 
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL 
ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH EAST OF 
THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY 
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THIS FEATURE WILL BRING WITH IT SOME MORE 
MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED 
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ALSO SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION. THERE IS 
THE POTENTIAL BY SATURDAY NIGHT THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL 
RETURN WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -2 DEGREES C. THIS 
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY AND 
POSSIBLY SOME WET SNOW OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST 
PENNSYLVANIA.

WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS FOR FRIDAY BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED. 
COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT AIR MASS BEHIND 
THE FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ALL THAT COLD SO WILL KEEP THE 
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...REINFORCING 
COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT 
AND THIS FEATURE WILL BRING WITH IT SOME COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH. 
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT 
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE LAKE EFFECT AND LAKE ENHANCED 
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING AN OMEGA BLOCK 
ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN UPPER LOW IN COLORADO/NEW MEXICO AND 
ANOTHER OVER MAINE. THE RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THAT 
SOUNDS GREAT EXCEPT THE PATTERN EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER OHIO 
BY WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF A REX BLOCK WITH THE LOW OVER 
MISSOURI WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA.  EITHER WAY 
EXPECT A TREND TOWARD COOL AND WET THROUGH THE WEEK. GIVEN MODEL 
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM DID END UP GOING TOWARD THE WPS 
SOLUTION IN THE GRIDS WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY COULD GET TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS BUT 
OTHERWISE EXPECT BELOW AVG TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY STABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES IN NWRN OHIO WILL
CONTINUE. ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. 

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WEST AND
FRIDAY ELSEWHERE...BUT CLEARING FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GIVEN CURRENT WINDS WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT CENTRAL AND EAST 
THROUGH EVENING.  WILL CANCEL IN THE WEST AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED 
THERE. OVERNIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKE SO WINDS AND 
WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE 
THURSDAY HOWEVER AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE LAKES.  
WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW FRIDAY AND WEST 
SATURDAY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES MAY AGAIN 
BE NEEDED FRIDAY BUT MORE CERTAINLY SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...DJB/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK






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