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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 221337
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
937 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SINGLE HOT AND HUMID DAY TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY COOLER
WEATHER AS A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENCOMPASS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT US OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADDED A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ONLY
A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE HIGHS.

HOT AND HUMID TODAY WITH HIGHS PUSHING OR TOPPING 90. HEAT INDEX
VALUES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. SCATTERED/BROKEN CUMULUS ACROSS THE
EAST THOUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NO CONVECTION EXPECTED UNDER STRONG
RIDGE. NO CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MILD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH PREFRONTAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. MOST
EVERYWHERE WILL STAY IN THE LOWER 70S OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND MAY HAVE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ENTER INTO NORTHWEST OHIO BEFORE 6AM.

DETAILS ON THE COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY KEEP NEEDING TO BE
TWEAKED...AFFECTED PRIMARILY BY FRONTAL TIMING. GFS IS THE
FASTEST WITH THE REMAINING GUIDANCE BEHIND IT. WILL GO WITH THE
MAJORITY AND BRING THE COLD FRONT TO SANDUSKY TO FORT WAYNE BY 8
AM WEDNESDAY. NOT AN OPTIMAL TIME FOR STRONGER STORMS. COLD FRONT
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND IT WILL KEEP PUSHING SOUTHEAST. SHOULD GET
A FLARE UP OF CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR. POSSIBLY STRONG...BUT LIKELY NOT SEVERE.
BETTER SUPPORT REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH THE BEST TROUGH
ENERGY. THESE LATEST RUNS ALSO DRIER. STILL CAN NOT PUSH POPS UP
PAST LIKELY ANYWHERE. WITH THIS TIMING TEMPERATURES ALSO TRENDING
COOLER. BLENDED NEW GUIDANCE WITH WHAT WE HAD
PREVIOUSLY...ALLOWING FOR SOME WARM-UP FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND
STAYING ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE THERE.

END THE PRECIP FASTER AND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT DRIER AIR AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE INFILTRATING THE REGION. BACK TO 70S FOR HIGHS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND LOWS DIPPING BACK INTO THE 50S
INLAND...BOTH FAIR WITH THAT HIGH OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DISCREPANCIES REMAIN IN THE MODELS AS TO THE TIMING OF THE NEXT 
THREAT OF SHOWER/STORMS. THE MODELS MAY BE HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE 
FEEDBACK ISSUES BY FRIDAY WITH THE STRONG WARM/DIFFERENTIAL 
ADVECTION TO THE WEST. CONSEQUENTLY AM A LITTLE NERVOUS ABOUT THE 
DOWNSTREAM SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY. ANY THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT 
DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST COULD POTENTIALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA 
BEFORE WEAKENING BUT DOUBTFUL THAT IT WOULD OCCUR BEFORE LATE FRIDAY 
NIGHT OR SATURDAY. CONTINUED WITH THE SAME FORECAST OF A CHANCE OF 
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO BY SATURDAY BUT TOOK OUT THE 
TIMING ALLOWING IT ANYTIME ON SATURDAY. THE SHOWER THREAT WOULD THEN 
EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFIC POP IN ANY FORECAST PERIOD. WILL 
PROBABLY NEED MORE THAN A "CHANCE" AT SOME POINT BUT NOT ENOUGH 
CONFIDENCE TO PIN POINT THE TIMING YET. BY NEXT MONDAY THE MODELS 
THE SURFACE LOW WOULD BE BUT ONE WOULD THINK THAT THE NEXT COLD 
FRONT WOULD ARRIVE ON MONDAY AND THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO 
DEEPEN. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON MONDAY.   

SIMILAR DOUBTS ABOUT THE SPECIFIC TEMPERATURE FORECASTS OVER THE 
WEEKEND SINCE THE TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS 
AND SHOWERS. WILL FORECAST TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ALTHOUGH THEY 
COULD EASILY BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW OR ABOVE THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR FOG/HAZE/MIST WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPING FROM
DAYTIME HEATING. LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFTS STILL LIKELY AT KERI AND
PROBABLY AT KCLE. VFR TONIGHT WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY REACH NW OHIO
AROUND DAYBREAK 10Z ON WEDNESDAY. THE SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY BE DIMINISHING AT THAT TIME OF THE MORNING AND
WILL FORECAST "SHOWERS VICINITY" IN THE TAF FORECASTS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SOUTH FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH TO 
THE EAST AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NONETHELESS THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT SHOULD BE WEAK ENOUGH FOR A LAKE BREEZE...ESPECIALLY EAST 
OF CLEVELAND. THE LAKE BREEZE WEST OF CLEVELAND MAY STRUGGLE 
ESPECIALLY WEST OF SANDUSKY. THE SOUTH WIND WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE 
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

NOT SURE OF THE EXACT TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. THERE COULD BE AN 
INITIAL TROUGH OR OUT FLOW BOUNDARY THAT MAY BRING A WIND SHIFT LATE 
TONIGHT OR FIRST THING WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ACTUAL FRONT COULD BE 
SEVERAL HOURS LATER. IN ANY CASE...THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE 
NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND NORTHEAST BY 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WIND WILL LIKELY BE STRONG 
ENOUGH FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BY LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE. THE SURFACE HIGH 
WILL BUILD IN ON THURSDAY AND WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH. THE FLOW WILL 
VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK






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