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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 231136
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
636 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MONDAY SENDING A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTED POP AND WX GRAPHICS JUST A BIT TO AGREE WITH
PRECIP TIMING/MOVEMENT BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE MORNING
UPDATE. AN ADDENDUM TO THE ORIGINAL TEXT...WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND THEN TURN SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
INCREASE FURTHER WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...POTENTIALLY
GUSTING OVER 40MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR MONDAY AND WOULD BE ISSUED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT IF
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SIMILAR VALUES.



ORIGINAL...FAIRLY MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE
TODAY WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT. AREA OF
RAIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTED AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MODELS HINTING AT MID DAY DRYING AS
BEST LIFT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS THROUGH THE MORNING DROPPING OFF THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVANCING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL HAVE CAT POPS
REACHING BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES BY 00Z. HIGH WILL REACH
INTO THE MID AND POSSIBLY UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OUT OF THE GULF
COAST AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE WARM
FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE COLD FRONT YET TO MOVE IN....AM
EXPECTING A BREAK IN PRECIP AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS. DO HAVE POPS
INCREASING FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOWEVER AS THE COLD
FRONT MAKES ITS WAY EAST INTO THE AREA. WILL HAVE POPS GO TO
LIKELY INVOF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD
SEE ANOTHER LULL IN PRECIP AS COLD AIR FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
EVENTUALLY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS 850MB TEMPS
DROP TO -1 TO -10 BY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE WILL
POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY IN THE SNOWBELT FOR TUESDAY WITH A
LINGERING CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD BE BETWEEN
SYSTEMS AND WILL CONTINUE DRY BUT COLD. TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TO START...DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CLIPPER WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH 
AN EAST COAST LOW THURSDAY. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE BETTER MOISTURE 
MAY BE LIMITED AND HAVE SCALED BACK PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS OUR 
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE RETAINED LIKELY WORDING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH 
FOR THANKSGIVING. THIS CLIPPER WILL BRING IN ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD 
AIR ACROSS THE LAKES AND WOULD EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT...WITH AREAS 
IMPACTED DEPENDENT UPON WIND DIRECTION THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. LOW 
CONFIDENCE IN THE SATURDAY FORECAST WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE 
DEPTH OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 
END OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND THEN A LARGE BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR 
WITH THIS. THE STRONG WINDS AT 2000 ABOVE THE GROUND ARE
DECREASING THUS THE THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS DIMINISHING.

A DRY SLOT FOR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
SOME VFR OR BARELY MVFR CEILINGS AND THEN MORE SHOWERS MOVING INTO
NW OHIO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST IN THE EVENING.
THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW AND FRONT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND
THEY WILL BE ESPECIALLY STRONG ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREA.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND
THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
STRONG ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY IN RESPONSE TO 
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF OKLAHOMA AND AN APPROACHING 
WARM FRONT. AS THE LOW DEEPENS FURTHER AND REACHES THE CENTRAL LAKES 
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON LAKE ERIE. DOWNSLOPE 
WINDS/GUSTS FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NW PA/ERIE WILL BE THE 
FIRST CONCERN. THEN EARLY MONDAY THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND THE 
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STEADILY INCREASE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL 
SWEEP ACROSS LAKE ERIE MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST GALE FORCE WINDS 
WILL ARRIVE QUICKLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW EXPECTING 40 KNOT 
GALES...BUT WE VERY WELL MAY SEE 45 KNOT GALES. THE GALE WATCH 
CONTINUES. THIS STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CREATE A LOW WATER 
SITUATION FOR THE WESTERN BASIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 
GALE FORCE INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH GOING INTO 
TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY 
WEDNESDAY AND A CLIPPER WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES 
THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR 
     LEZ061-146>149-166>169.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR 
     LEZ142>145-162>165.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...OUDEMAN






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