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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 311322
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
922 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
THE EAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR 930 UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED CLOUD COVER.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY THERE ARE JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE AREA. THESE SHOULD BE GONE SHORTLY. CONSIDERED REMOVING
ALL PRECIP MENTION THIS MORNING BUT JUST NOT COMFORTABLE GOING DRY
ACROSS FAR NE OH AND NW PA. SOME ENHANCED CLOUDINESS IS MOVING
TOWARD THOSE AREAS FROM THE NW AND SHOWERS COULD OCCUR AT ABOUT
ANYTIME. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO JUST LOW CHANCE. ANOTHER PIECE OF
ENERGY WILL HEAD THIS WAY THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE SOME MORE
POP UP STORMS TOWARD EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW OH. COVERAGE
TODAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SPARSE AND MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE
COMPLETELY DRY. ALSO EXPECTING A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE TODAY THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS 3 OR 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. SHORT WAVES ALOFT WILL BRING OCCASIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WAS UNABLE TO FIND A DRY PERIOD TILL
SUNDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THEN WILL NEED TO CARRY CHANCE POPS. IT
APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME SATURDAY AS AN INVERTED
TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE EAST.
INSTABILITY DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE LACKING SO NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL BE DRY WITH
JUST PASSING ROUNDS OF PRECIP. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RAMP UP THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS CREEPING
INTO THE 60S. THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SO WILL TRY FOR PARTLY CLOUDY
WORDING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE A TAD BELOW NORMAL. HAVE
USED A BLEND OF TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SLIDE INTO THE GREAT LAKES 
TROUGH ON MONDAY AND PUSH A WEAK FRONT TOWARDS LAKE ERIE. THE 00Z/31 
ECMWF SHOWS THE FRONT STALLING NEAR THE LAKE WHILE THE GFS IS MORE 
AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY 
EVENING. GIVEN THAT THE ENERGY DRIVING THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE 
NORTH...WOULD THINK THE ECMWF MAY OFFER THE BETTER SOLUTION...BUT 
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME SCALE. WILL JUST CARRY A LOW POP 
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THEN A CHANCE OF 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL AREAS ON TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT 
WE WILL BE WATCHING ENERGY ROUND THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST WITH THE 
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A WARM FRONT WILL 
TRY TO LIFT INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW BUT UNCLEAR AT THIS 
TIME IF THE FRONT WILL BE ACTIVE GIVEN THAT IT WILL ONLY BE NEAR 
ILLINOIS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. JUST A 20 POP IN THE GRIDS FOR 
WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME. 

TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN 
THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SEVERAL OF THE TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE PATCHY GROUND FOG THROUGH 
13Z...MAINLY MVFR WITH A FEW PATCHES OF IFR. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE 
OF SHOWERS TOWARDS ERI FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS BAND OF LAKE 
EFFECT SHOWERS RESIDES NEAR THE SHORELINE. OTHERWISE WEAK SURFACE 
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN TODAY WITH SW WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND 
VFR CONDITIONS. SCT-BKN CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP TOWARDS MID TO LATE 
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN SLIDES EASTWARD. WINDS WILL 
BE LIGHT AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF PATCHY MVFR FOG. 

OUTLOOK...NON VFR DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS ON LAKE ERIE THIS 
MORNING AS A TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE LAKE. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT 
EAST OF THE LAKE LATER TODAY WITH A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN WHICH 
SHOULD LESSEN THE CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE 
GENERALLY BE 10-15 KNOTS TODAY...DROPPING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS 
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ON THE LAKE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WIND AND WAVE 
CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...DJB/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC






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