000
FXUS61 KCLE 190555
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
155 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE OVER THE 
EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST. MEANWHILE
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO WILL LIFT BACK NORTH 
LATE SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE HUMID AIR EARLY IN THE 
WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT 
SHOULD ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THOUGH SOME THIN 
HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MORNING. SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG 
A LINE FROM ASHLAND TO YOUNGSTOWN COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SHOWER 
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THE DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES TOWARDS 
MORNING WITH MOST AREAS SEEING READINGS IN THE MID 50S. TEMPERATURES 
AS A RESULT WILL REMAIN WARM IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH 
SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO 
VALLEY SHIFTING BACK NORTH LATE SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE TO INCREASE. STILL NO OBVIOUS FORCING MECHANISM ON SUNDAY 
AFTERNOON TO KICK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BENEATH THE BUILDING 
RIDGE ALOFT SO WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO FAIRLY LOW POPS...WITH 
BEST CHANCES FOCUSED SOUTH OF A FDY-YNG LINE. EXPECTING A LITTLE 
LESS CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IN NW OHIO WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE DRY ON SUNDAY NIGHT...HAVE 
ADDED IN A LOW POP TO NW OHIO AS THETA E RIDGE LIFTS NORTH INTO THE 
AREA. MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH DETECTING NOCTURNAL SHOWERS IN THIS 
PATTERN AND NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY 
TO WORK WITH. WILL CONTINUE THIS SLIGHT CHANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE 
AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. 

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND SLOWLY 
PUSH EASTWARD DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. DEEP SOUTHERLY 
FLOW WILL RESULT IN A MOISTENING AIRMASS WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD...SLOWLY SHIFTING 
EAST OF THE AREA...THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS ENERGY 
EJECTS OUT OF THE TROUGH AND TRIES TO MOVE AROUND THE RIDGE. MONDAY 
WILL LIKELY BE CAPPED FOR MOST AREAS WITH CHANCES INCREASING ON 
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 80S ON MONDAY...THEN DROP 
BACK INTO THE LOW 80S ON TUESDAY AS CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
INCREASE. LOWS WILL BE MILD AS DEWPOINTS CREEP UP...DROPPING INTO 
THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE 
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM JUST TO THE WEST 
OF THE FORECAST AREA.  IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE 
IN THE WARM SECTOR IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM AS IT MOVES EAST. THE 
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT 
INTO THURSDAY.  THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE 
PROGRESSION OF THIS STORM THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY. THE BEST LIFT FROM 
THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW APPEARED TO BE MORE ON 
WEDNESDAY YESTERDAY AND IT LOOKS MORE LIKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND 
THURSDAY WITH THIS RUN.  IN EITHER CASE...THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT 
WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH SCATTERED STORMS THROUGHOUT.  THE SLOWER 
PROGRESSION OF THIS MODEL RUN WILL FORCE ME TO PUT SHOWERS IN THE 
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND PATCHY MID CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. ON THE 06Z 
TAFS BACKED OFF ON THE FOG AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES AS THE
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT SPREAD IS HIGH. ANY FOG SHOULD BE PATCHY
AND MAINLY WELL INLAND OF LAKE ERIE AND SHOULD BURN OFF RAPIDLY.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT CLEAR CUT.
MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH...SO EXPECTING PLENTY
OF CUMULUS INLAND OF THE LAKE. THE CAPE DOES GET HIGHER TODAY AND
WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA CONTINUED WITH VCTS AT MFD...CAK AND
YNG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...IT
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE LAST FEW DAYS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON.  A 
FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE.  
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING 
HOURS. THE 12Z BUFKIT RUN SHOWS A POCKET OF 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS 
WITHIN 1KFT OF THE SURFACE OVER THE WESTERN BASIN THROUGH 00Z. WITH 
THE EAST TO NORTHEAST FETCH WAVE HEIGHTS COULD REACH 3 TO 5 FEET 
OVER THE WEST. EVEN THOUGH THE CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL...I WILL 
CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE EVENING.  WINDS WILL 
DECREASE OVERNIGHT TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS.  A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL SETUP 
ON SUNDAY BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE WEAKER AND THEREFORE 
THE WINDS NOT AS STRONG.  I DO NOT ANTICIPATE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA 
FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...GARNET