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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 301930
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
330 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST 
COAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE ASSOCIATED 
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THEN SHIFT 
TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE 
EAST COAST BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON 
SUNDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL MOVE 
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON 
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST 
OHIO. IN THE MEANTIME WE WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT RIDGING. LITTLE 
REASON TO THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS UNTIL THE 
FRONT AND TROUGH ALOFT BEGIN TO DESCEND UPON THE AREA. WILL HAVE A 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AND 
WEST COUNTIES. 

THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CLEARING FOR A WHILE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL 
BE LIGHT AND DEWPOINTS ARE RATHER LOW. THE  NORMAL COLD SPOTS... 
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WILL 
DROP DOWN TO THE MID 30S OR SO. FORECAST MINS IN THE UPPER 30S OR 
LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG AN IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE THAT CLOSES
OFF AS IT DROPS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ALL THE WAY TO THE
CAROLINAS. COLD AIR WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD. RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL GRADUALLY COOL
ENOUGH TO MIX AND CHANGE TO SNOW...PERHAPS MIXING/CHANGING AS
QUICKLY AS FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO WITH CHILLY
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. NOT THE BEST EVENING FOR TRICK OR TREAT OR
FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL.

THE NORTH FLOW OFF THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP THE
LAKESHORE RELATIVELY WARM ON FRIDAY NIGHT BUT BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING JUST ABOUT ANYBODY COULD SEE MIXED RAIN AND SNOW OR ALL
SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH SUCH A DEEP TROUGH ALOFT THE
SYNOPTIC SHOWERS OFTEN LAST LONGER THAN THE MODELS THINK. THE
NORTH WIND WILL PROVIDE LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WILL KEEP RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST MOST OF SATURDAY EXCEPT FOR THE I-75
CORRIDOR (NW OHIO). THE BAST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW
WOULD BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PERHAPS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. AS ALWAYS THIS
TIME OF YEAR...THE GROUND IS WARM AND IT HAS TO SNOW HARD TO
STICK. WILL PUT IN SOME MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND MANSFIELD
(AN INCH OR TWO).

IT WILL BE HARD TO WARM UP ON SATURDAY ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT 
CONTINUE TO GET PRECIP. WITH THE 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED AROUND -9C 
SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S.  

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN ON SUNDAY. LAKE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY 
LINGER NE OH/NW PA ALTHOUGH WITH ANY LUCK WE CAN GET SOME BREAKS IN 
THE CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S NW OHIO TO THE 
UPPER 30S EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. 

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WOULD BE 
ACROSS NW OHIO.  MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE COLD 
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.  AFTER THIS THE 
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.  ON WEDNESDAY THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT 
SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS A WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS 
THE FORECAST AREA.  FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR 
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND CLOUD DECK MOST
LOCATIONS HAS IMPROVED TO VFR. OVERNIGHT NW-W FLOW WILL TURN TO
THE SOUTH AND SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO NW SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD NON VFR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK W-NW FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.  MODELS CONTINUE TO 
BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING LOW INTO CENTRAL LAKES FRIDAY...DRAGGING 
COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE. LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST WITH WINDS 
INCREASING TO 30 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT.  ONE THING THAT MAY KEEP WINDS 
FROM REACHING GALES IS THE LACK OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION. THE BEST 
COLD ADVECTION MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING AFTER THE 
STRONGEST WINDS HAVE PASSED.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE 
NEEDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB






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