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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 281111
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
610 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY TONIGHT THEN 
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL WORK EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE 
NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA SUNDAY NIGHT AND TO THE NEW ENGLAND 
COAST MONDAY PULLING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL START TO SHIFT EAST BY THIS 
EVENING. AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY...THE SUNSHINE SHOULD CAUSE 
TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S EVEN WITH INCREASING 
HIGH CLOUDS...BUT NOT AS WARM AS THE MAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL JET TO 
DEVELOP. 850 MB TEMPS INCREASE ABOUT 6 TO 8 DEGREES FROM 00Z TO 12Z 
SO WE SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPS START RISING AFTER EVENING TEMP DROPS 
OF ABOUT 5 DEGREES. THE ISSUE WILL BE WHETHER ANY PRECIP CAN REACH 
NW OH BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING THU MORNING. TEMPS ALOFT WILL 
BE WARM ENOUGH BY 12Z FOR RAIN VERSUS SNOW SO IF TEMPS ARE NOT ABOVE 
FREEZING WHEN THE PRECIP ARRIVES THEN THERE WILL BE SOME FZRA. IF 
THE PRECIP DOES END UP ARRIVING ON THE FASTER SIDE THEN WE MAY 
EVENTUALLY NEED AN ADVISORY TO COVER THIS LATE TONIGHT OR THE FIRST 
THING THU MORNING.

WITH THE HELP OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...LIGHT RAIN OR FZRA WILL QUICKLY 
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE CWA THRU 18Z THU. A COLD FRONT WILL BE PULLED 
ACROSS THE AREA THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL BRING IN COLDER 
AIR AND CHANGE THE PRECIP OVER TO JUST SNOW. DRIER AIR ARRIVING 
SHOULD END THE PRECIP BEFORE MUCH SNOW HAS THE CHANCE TO ACCUMULATE 
FOR THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL START TO TAKE 
PLACE THU NIGHT AS A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR CLIPS INTO THE AREA. THINK 
WE COULD SEE 2 TO LOCALLY 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE SNOWBELT BY 
THE TIME HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BY FRI EVENING TO TAPER THE SNOW 
SHOWERS DOWN TO MOSTLY FLURRIES. THE HIGHER TOTALS SHOULD BE 
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA.

THE TIMING OF THE HIGH MOVING IN FOR FRI NIGHT TO PARTIALLY CLEAR 
THE SKIES SHOULD LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 OR 4 DEGREES 
EITHER SIDE OF ZERO.

CONCERNED ON SAT THAT THE WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT ALOFT COULD LEAD TO 
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES NEAR LAKE ERIE BUT FOR NOW WILL STAY 
WITH A DRY FORECAST.

MODELS CONTINUE TO JUMP AROUND FOR THE SAT INTO SUN FEATURES BUT IN 
GENERAL THEY NOW SEEM TO BE SETTLING AROUND DRAWING A LOW OUT OF 
TEXAS ON SUN THAT MOVES TOWARD WV. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SEEM 
LIKELY ON SAT. LOW LEVELS TRY AND STAY DRY THRU MOST OF SAT NIGHT SO 
NOT SURE IF ANY SNOW DEVELOPS BY THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT OR 
WAITS UNTIL SUN MORNING. WILL KEEP ONGOING FORECAST OF RAMPING UP 
CHC POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT FOR MAINLY THE NW HALF.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY ALLOWING 
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN 
PLAINS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE COLD AND RATHER DRY ON SUNDAY AND 
SHOULD TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO MOISTEN UP FROM THE TOP DOWN. HOWEVER 
BY SUNDAY NIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AND LIKELY CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST 
MONDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS STORM IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT 
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW SHOULD OCCUR. DETAILS WILL EVOLVE OVER THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS. WE WILL THEN SEE IF WE GET ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW 
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS PLENTY OF ICE ON 
LAKE ERIE AT THIS POINT SO ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE MINIMAL BUT WE WILL 
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY CRACKS THAT CAN OPEN UP AND THE INFLUENCE OF 
UPSTREAM LAKES.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARM DAY OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN 
THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30. MUCH COLDER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH MOST 
LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS IN THE TEENS. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT 
LOWS WILL LIKELY DIP TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COUPLE BANDS OF CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM LAKE ERIE SOUTH THROUGH
THE CLEVELAND AND AKRON CANTON AREAS AND ANOTHER BAND THROUGH ERIE
PENNSYLVANIA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE.
EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WIND FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE IN
SPEED TOMORROW EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNS ON THURSDAY IN WIDESPREAD SNOW...BUT
MAY BEGIN AS A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST FRIDAY. MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE 
HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST IT WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN 
LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THESE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL 
INCREASE ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT 
LAKES. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 25 KNOTS IN 
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT PASS THURSDAY EVENING WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND 
WILL LIKELY GET CLOSE TO 30 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS. WINDS BECOME MORE 
NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS 
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN MOVES OVER OHIO. 

THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED BUT THE STRONGER WINDS THURSDAY INTO 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE ICE FLOES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...MULLEN









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