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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 021141
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
641 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. A STRONG AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK IMPULSE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THE MAIN AFFECT WILL BE OVER NE OH AND NW PA WITH SOME
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID OR POSSIBLY LATE MORNING. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH 10 AM SHOULD BE HALF AN INCH OR LESS. SKIES OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO WILL START OFF AS MOSTLY SUNNY AND THEN SOME CLOUDS
LATER IN THE DAY.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SOME
AFTERNOON SUN WILL HELP THE TEMPERATURES RISE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND THICKENING DURING THE NIGHT. THE 
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND THEN BECOME STEADY 
OR SLOWLY RISE. THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS WAY TOO COLD WITH THE 
HIGH MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT AND THE CLOUDS AND THE WIND INCREASING. 
USED A BLEND BETWEEN ALL THE MOS GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND 
THE MEX.

TUESDAY IS THE TOUGH ONE. THE POPS ARE EASY...IT WILL PRECIPITATE. 
THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST QUICKLY...MAINLY AFTER 
THE MORNING COMMUTE EXCEPT OVER THE TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AREAS. THE
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND HOW LONG THE
SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL LAST BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
RAIN. THE NAM MODEL IS THE QUICKEST. THE OTHERS ARE MUCH SLOWER.
IT IS A FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SO IT SHOULD WARM. THE ROAD
SURFACES WILL BE COLD TO START SO THAT COULD BE AN ISSUE. USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE TO COME UP WITH THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES. WENT
FASTER THAN MOST GUIDANCE BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE NAM. MORE THEN
LIKELY AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE WINTRY MIX. UNTIL THE
TREND IS CLEAR WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE RAIN WILL DECREASE AND OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS 
IT DECREASES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR 
LATE.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IT WILL BE A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND 
THE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED MOST OF THE TIME. FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS 
FORECAST WITH CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD ABOUT THAT 
OVER NE OH AND NW PA WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE EVENTUALLY PLUNGING 
TO AROUND 21 BELOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN COLDER ON THURSDAY.
ELSEWHERE NOT TO SURE HOW MUCH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR.

THE MODELS STRUGGLED WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ESPECIALLY FOR 
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THE PATTERN WENT TOWARD THE 
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR THE LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND A COMPROMISE 
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIGHT NOW THE MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS OH ON FRI SO 
SHOULD SEE DRY WX WITH TEMPS STARTING TO MODERATE A LITTLE. SAT 
BECOME MORE QUESTIONABLE AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS SHOWN MOVING 
INTO THE LAKE ERIE AREA BY LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT WITH A BAND OF 
DECENT MOISTURE. WILL STAY WITH ONGOING FORECAST FOR CHC FOR PRECIP 
FOR MAINLY THE NE HALF.

THE REMAINS OF THE WEAK FRONT MAY BE OVER OR NEAR THE AREA FOR SUN 
BUT ON AVERAGE THE MODELS STILL TRYING TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE IN 
CONTROL SO WILL JUST KEEP THE SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPS MAY BE WARM 
ENOUGH ON SAT AND SUN FOR RAIN VERSUS SNOW IN THE SOUTH IF PRECIP 
DOES OCCUR AS TEMPS THERE COULD SKYROCKET ALL THE WAY UP INTO THE 
UPPER 30S...ALMOST GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE NW SHOULD CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT THE 
LOWER CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE THRU MIDDAY. NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE 
ENOUGH MOISTURE FLUX FROM ICE COVERED LAKE ERIE TO ALLOW SOME LOWER 
CLOUDS TO HANG ON AT ERI AND YNG DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BY EVENING TO CALM THE WINDS THEN HIGHER 
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT BUT PRECIP SHOULD 
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING INTO 
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST WINDS OF MAINLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING 
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THEN TURN SOUTH ON TUE AND SW 
FOR TUE NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS. THE NEXT ARCTIC 
FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE LATE TUE NIGHT TURNING WINDS WEST. HIGH 
PRESSURE FINALLY MOVES INTO OH BY THU NIGHT TO DIMINISH THE FLOW 
WHICH THEN BACKS TO SW FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS






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