Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Cleveland, OH banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KCLE 021726
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
126 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
STATES BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAINLY TRIED TO TRACK THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WITH THE MIDDAY UPDATE. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. CUMULUS ELSEWHERE EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST
LAKESHORE (LAKE BREEZE) WITH A SMATTERING OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S
ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS WHERE THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS OCCUR DURING THE
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON COULD HOLD IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REALLY GETS AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS 
AS OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS ON THE WEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48. DEEP 
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES INTO THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES 
TO AMPLIFY. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA...MORE HIGH 
PRESSURE...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK 
WEEK.

ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BECOMES ABSORBED 
IN THE SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF MAINE...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL 
DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE FLUX FROM 
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE CUT OFF AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF 
MAINE BUILDS SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL LIMIT THE 
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE WE GET INTO THE EARLY PART 
OF THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN...MORE OF THE SAME WARM TEMPERATURES AND 
FAIR WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE GOING TO BE VERY SIMILAR EACH 
DAY. AS A MATTER OF FACT...I THINK THIS IS THE FIRST I HAVE SEEN 
THIS BUT THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE SAYS EXACTLY THE SAME MIN/MAX 
TEMPERATURES FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE PERIODS INDICATING WHAT I HAVE 
BEEN SAYING ALL ALONG...NO CHANGE. I DONT REALLY SEE ANY CHANGE IN 
THE AIR MASS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING.  THE 
WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING WARM AND HUMID. THERE COULD BE A FEW POP 
UPS EACH DAY BUT GIVEN LACK OF FORCING IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW WHEN 
AND WHERE THEY WILL OCCUR.  COVERAGE SHOULD BE UNDER 10 PERCENT SO 
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING.  DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BEGIN 
TO SHOW UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE ECMWF REMAINS QUICKER 
BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  THE GFS DOESN'T 
HAVE THIS FRONT ARRIVING TILL TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE PREVIOUS FORECAST 
ALREADY HAD A CHANCE MENTION FOR BOTH PERIODS AND GIVEN THE 
UNCERTAINTY WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH THAT FOR NOW.  TEMPS BOTH 
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS WITH 
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MUCH OF THE SAME CONTINUES TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A
FEW POP UP SHRA/TS POSSIBLE BUT AGAIN COVERAGE WILL BE EXTREMELY
LIMITED. IF THERE WAS ANYTHING THAT COULD HINT TO A SOMEWHAT
BETTER CHANCE OF A SHRA/TS SUCH AS HIGH RES MODELS OR CURRENT
ANALYSIS EXTRAPOLATED...A VCSH OR VCTS HAS BEEN INCLUDED.
UNCERTAIN IF LAKE BREEZE WILL MAKE IT THROUGH KCLE THIS
AFTERNOON...AT LEAST NOT TO TAKE IT PAST 330 DEGREES.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE PATTERN SHIFTS EVER SO SLIGHTLY AND WE
WILL BE ABLE TO GET A VERY DIFFUSE COLD FRONT SINK SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A MID DECK AND A FEW
VCSH WITH THIS FEATURE. TS ARE POSSIBLE. EARLY MORNING/SUNRISE
MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE TOO. OVERALL THE WINDS WHICH WILL BE WEST-
SOUTHWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL COME AROUND TO
THE NW-N ON THURSDAY BEHIND THAT FRONT.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE MOST OF THE PERIOD.  
THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS 
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO 
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO 
BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST FOR A TIME.  SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 15 
KNOTS SO DO NOT THINK WE WILL NEED ANY HEADLINES.  THE FLOW WILL 
RETURN TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.  GIVEN THE LACK OF PRESSURE 
GRADIENT...SPEEDS MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK/LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KUBINA



National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy