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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 200819
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
419 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FORCING A 
WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL 
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST 
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE BECOMES NEARLY 
STATIONARY OVER KANSAS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
BUILD SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OUT OF QUEBEC THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WE HAVE BEEN PRETTY BUSY WATCHING STORMS DEVELOP AND DECAY ACROSS 
THE AREA. ONE CELL INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY JUST SOUTH OF HOLMES COUNTY 
ALONG OR NEAR THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MORE CELLS WERE APPROACHING 
STRONG STATUS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL 
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWED ATMOSPHERE IS 
TRENDING TOWARD A QUIETER PERIOD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY 
SHIFT EAST TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT 
LAKES. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF 
THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AS A 
TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. TIMING OF THE COLD 
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z TONIGHT. I ANTICIPATE 
THAT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 
DAY TIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO THE 
COLD FRONT. SO WILL KEEP A LIKELY POP GOING AWAY FROM THE LAKE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE EVEN THOUGH COLD FRONT 
PASSES THROUGH SINCE FRONT IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG. WE SHOULD SEE A 
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST AS WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHAPING UP TO BRING THE FORECAST AREA INTO A 
SUMMER PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN WAITING TO SEE ALL SUMMER. UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND THEN 
DEVELOPS INTO A FULL BLOWN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. 
THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE 
WEEKEND. 

AFTER WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY...WE WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN 
THE ACTION UNTIL WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE 
REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A STRONG SURGE 
OF WARM AIR WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 70S...ESPECIALLY 
WEST. THIS WILL MAKE FOR MUGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE 
WEEKEND. PLUS...WE WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THREATEN THE 
AREA AS INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT 
BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA...AND A SERIES OF UPPER 
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT ROTATE INTO THE REGION.

THREAT STILL EXISTS FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS TO DEVELOP 
AND MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT SOME POINT DURING THIS FORECAST 
PERIOD DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WEAKENING 1000 TO 500 MB 
THICKNESS GRADIENT AND HIGH DEW POINT AIR MASS IN PLACE. 
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE QUITE HIGH APPROACHING 2 INCHES SO 
WE WILL DEFINITELY SEE SOME HEAVY RAINERS.  WILL NEED TO MONITOR 
STORMS FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING ISSUES IN THIS PATTERN. EVEN WET 
MACROBURSTS COULD BE A PROBLEM IN THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS AROUND THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING 
THE WARM SECTOR IN PLACE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGE 
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ONGOING SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE THE 
RULE AT NIGHT AND IN THE MORNINGS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH STRONGER 
THREAT IN THE AFTERNOONS.

BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WE ENTER INTO 
THE WARM SECTOR WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR COOLING...OTHER THAN FROM 
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS DIFFICULT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS 
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BE 
HOW MUCH JET ENERGY WILL BE PASSING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. IT 
WILL BE HUMID BUT WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE PERIOD IT 
LOOKS AS IF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE SUNDAY 
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDER WILL LIKELY BE OVER 
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. 

THIS LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BE THE WARMEST STRETCH OF WEATHER WE HAVE 
HAD THIS SUMMER WITH MID 80S TO AROUND 90 POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. AFTER THIS EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION IT APPEARS MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 71. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
TOWARD SUNRISE WHERE THE RAIN HAS STOPPED.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW 12 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER WESTERN AREAS MAY SEE WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST
IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK FRONT. 

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO LAKE ONTARIO 
BY THURSDAY. AS IT DOES IT WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE 
LAKE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 
UNDER 12 KNOTS. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE 
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER WARM FRONT ATTEMPTING TO 
LIFT ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY. 

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN






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