000
FXUS61 KCLE 190133 AAB
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
933 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL OHIO WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH TONIGHT. 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE EAST OF LAKE ERIE BY 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE NEW JERSEY COAST THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL 
STALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. EVEN WITH CLEAR SKIES
THINK WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM TANKING.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SE INTO SW OH MAY SLOW THE EXIT OF ANY 
POSSIBLY LINGERING SHRA AND TSRA SOME THIS EVENING BUT STILL THINK 
THE THREAT FOR PRECIP WILL BE DONE IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY 
MIDNIGHT. DECREASING CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW 
TO MID 50S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE FOR THE 
INLAND EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THEN SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA SHOULD 
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THRU SAT NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY LOW LEVEL 
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY INTO FRI. MODELS DIFFER MORE AND MORE THU 
THRU SAT...STARTING BETWEEN NAM AND GFS FOR 850 MB MOISTURE ON THU 
THEN MORE LARGER SCALE DIFFERENCES DEVELOP FRI AND SAT AMONG THE GFS 
AND ECMWF.

IN GENERAL...THINK SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE 
BY FRI AFTERNOON FOR AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LITTLE CONVECTION TO 
SNEAK INTO THE AREA. IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO ALLOW POPS TO INCH UP A 
BIT BUT NOT ENOUGH TO BE MENTIONED IN FORECAST YET.

FAIRLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL SET UP BY SAT WITH EVEN MORE LOWER LEVEL 
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...MORE UPPER RIDGING SHOULD ALSO BE IN PLACE TO 
TRY AND CAP CONVECTION SO PLAN TO ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DEFINITE ABOUT THE LONG TERM IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH 
HIGHS ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS 
TOUGH. NO DEFINITE TRIGGER CAN BE SEEN THROUGH TUESDAY. WONDERING IF 
THE POPS SHOULD BE MAINLY 20%. LEANED THAT WAY AT MOST LOCATIONS 
EXCEPT ON TUESDAY AS THE HEIGHTS WILL BE FALLING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE A FEW LOW END VFR
CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. HOWEVER THESE
SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE CLEAR SKIES INTO WEDNESDAY.

WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG IN THE MORNING
BUT BELIEVE IT WILL BE BETWEEN TAF SITES.

.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. IN THE 
MEANTIME A GUSTY NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE 
LAKESHORE. WAVES ARE RIGHT ON THE EDGE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. 
AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE DATA FROM BUOYS ETC STILL GOING WITH 2 TO 
4 FOOT WAVES. THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. THE 
FLOW WILL BE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO 
KEEP THE WAVES IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. 

AT THIS TIME NO THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS A A RIDGE WILL 
BE INFLUENCING THE WEATHER ON THE LAKE THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN AS 
THE RIDGE MOVES EAST SUNDAY A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/DJB
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KIELTYKA