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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 161044
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
644 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL BUILD TO NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. LOW 
PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 
ON THURSDAY AND PULL A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER 
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AND SKIES HAVE CLEARED ALL AREAS. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO FALL EARLY THIS MORNING BENEATH THE BUILDING HIGH WITH
NEARLY CALM WINDS. AS OF 6 AM...IT LOOKS LIKE YNG HAS DIPPED TO 20
DEGREES WHICH BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 21 DEGREES FROM 1980. TOL
IS ALSO 20 DEGREES WHICH TIES THE PREVIOUS RECORD DATING ALL THE
WAY BACK TO 1875. STAY TUNED FOR THE OFFICIAL RECORD REPORT TO SEE
IF TEMPERATURES DIP ANY COOLER YET THIS MORNING. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL BUILD TOWARDS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE TO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL DEVELOP
TODAY...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE ERIE WHERE WINDS WILL BE MORE
NORTHEASTERLY OFF THE LAKE. LOWERED HIGHS NEAR THE LAKE AS HIGHS
ARE REACHED BY MIDDAY BEFORE THE NORTHEAST WIND DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 30S TOWARDS ERIE PA TO UPPER
40S TOWARDS CENTRAL OHIO. OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE SOME CIRRUS
SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL CARRY SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN NORTHWEST OHIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE 
HIGH DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 
AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 
30S. 

LOW PRESSURE NEAR SIOUX FALLS SD THIS MORNING WILL TRACK TOWARDS 
UPPER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD 
OF IT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD WARM ADVECTION ON THURSDAY WITH 
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR 60 DEGREES IN NRN OHIO...UPPER 50S 
IN NW PA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY AGAIN WITH ONLY SOME 
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND...MAINLY NW OHIO. 

A TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO 
FRIDAY. MODELS SHOWING A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING NORTHEAST 
ACROSS OHIO IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH. THE ECMWF/GEM/UKMET ARE PRETTY 
LEAN ON MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH BEING WEAKER WITH THE 
APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD FRONT WHILE THE NAM/GFS ALLOW FOR A LITTLE 
BETTER MOISTURE RETURN AND STRONGER COLD PUSH. SOUNDINGS FROM THE 
LATTER SHOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ON 
FRIDAY SO HELD ONTO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EITHER CAMP TO MAKE A DEFINITIVE CHOICE
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP/TEMPERATURES SO WENT WITH A BLENDED
APPROACH IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY 
WITH A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES 
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH SKIES CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH MODELS ALREADY EXHIBITING A FAIR 
AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT.  WILL USE A MIX OF ECMWF GFS MOS AND HPC 
GRAPHICS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BASICALLY THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP 
WILL LIKELY BE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES 
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES INTO 
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. AIRMASS DRIES OUT AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND 
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE AREA. TEMPS LARGELY SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE TO NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. AIRMASS IS COOL ENOUGH TO GET LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW BUT MOST OF THIS WILL BE GONE BY MORNING AS FLOW
WEAKENS AND AIRMASS DRIER FURTHER. WILL HOLD ONTO MVFR CIGS AT
KYNG FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BUT THEN LIFT TO VFR.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL FALL AT 3AM AS WINDS/WAVES DECREASE ON THE 
LAKE. FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH 
FRIDAY.  SATURDAY EXPECTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND 
A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY PUSH WAVES TO 4 FEET OR SLIGHTLY MORE 
WHICH MAY NECESSITATE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY.  OTHERWISE NO 
HEADLINES EXPECTED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK






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