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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 202226
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
626 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...UPDATED FOR SEVERE WATCH.


ORIGINAL...A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY
MOVE TOWARD THE REGION THIS EVENING. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG SEVERAL PREFRONTAL BOUNDARIES THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MICHIGAN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE OUTFLOW FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY GET CLOSER TO NW OHIO. IF THESE
INITIAL STORMS DO NOT GET INTO THE TOLEDO AREA THROUGH 00Z WE WILL
BE WAITING UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR ANY CONVECTION TO
ARRIVE. INSTABILITY VALUES WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNSET AS WE
ADVECT SOME BETTER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND THE BETTER SHEAR
ARRIVES. THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONGER
WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE.

HIGHER LEVELS OF MOISTURE AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE
REGION WARMER TONIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME MOVING ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. WE ARE A BIT MORE CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE CHANCES ON SUNDAY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MEADVILLE TO MARION. THIS IS THE
REGION THAT WILL BE THE WARMEST ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THE REGION WILL HAVE INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WITH COLDER AIR FLOWING ACROSS LAKE ERIE
IT WILL MEAN SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL MAINLY
BE LOCATED FROM THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE REGION EASTWARD INTO NW PA. 
THESE SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS NW PA. THE
ENTIRE AREA SHOULD BE DRY BY MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THAT WAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. 

SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM WITH MOST
LOCATIONS STILL IN THE 70S...MIDDLE TO MAYBE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. MONDAY WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN MANY LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE
50S. SLIGHTLY WARMER ON TUESDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS BACK
INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNEVENTFUL FROM WEDNESDAY ON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. 
PATTERN BEGINS TO BLOCK AND RARE RIDGING RESIDES OVER THE OHIO 
VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES THAT ARE NEAR NORMAL AND A 
PERIOD OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WILL FINALLY SPREAD SSW WIND GUSTS AVERAGING 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME OF THE THICKER CIRRUS
EXITS THE AREA. VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING. 

COMPLICATED FRONTAL SITUATION OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
COLD FRONT COMES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...DEVELOPING A
WAVE ON THE FRONT TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS SE MI.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE FROM THE WEST INTO TOL/FDY THIS
EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT...WEAKENING WITH TIME. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT
CROSSES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER. A SECONDARY FRONT/TROUGH
CROSSES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY BRINGING IN NORTHERLY WINDS
AND A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. NON-VFR IN THE SHOWERS/TS.
BETTER CHANCE OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME BEFORE MORNING. GUSTS AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING LINGERING OVER NE
OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL LEAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP AS IS FOR NOW. WIND 
OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN JUST SHY OF SMALL CRAFT ADV CONDITIONS UP TO 
THIS POINT SO FAR...BUT EXPECT A HANDFUL OF HOURS LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR THOSE WINDS TO PEAK A LITTLE HIGHER. IF 
THIS DOES OCCUR THAN THE SMALL CRAFT ADV MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BY 
A FEW HOURS. 

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PROMPT SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS 
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS 
THE LAKE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN BE FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY 
FRONT/TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS THEREFORE CAN BE EXPECTED TO 
SHIFT FROM THE SSW TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND THEN TO THE NORTH 
SUNDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A GOOD CHOP ON THE LAKE AND BY SUNDAY 
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE 
LENGTH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AIDING IN THE 
ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS. WIND/WAVES SETTLE DOWN SLOWLY THROUGH MONDAY 
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN 
CONTROL OF THE LAKE WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS 
EAST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN






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