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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 250325
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1025 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY. AN EAST COAST LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH WIND WARNINGS EXPIRED AT 10 PM. WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO GUST TO
40-45 MPH...MAINLY ALONG THE LAKESHORE FROM TOLEDO TO CLEVELAND
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE TREND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE
FOR WINDS TO CONTINUE DECREASING AS THE GRADIENT GRADUALLY
RELAXES. 

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH WILL CROSS NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA SHORTLY... BUT AS OF MID AFTERNOON THERE WERE STILL
WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 KNOTS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNING EXPIRATION TIMES... 8 PM ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND 10 PM
REMAINDER. SOME GUSTS IN THE ADVISORY RANGE...ABOUT 40
KNOTS...COULD LINGER AT IMMEDIATE LAKE ERIE LAKE SHORE EAST OF
CLEVELAND THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES
EAST... TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TONIGHT. NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING OF ANY CONSEQUENCE AS THE MAIN AREA OF WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION LIFTS NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS A LARGE SHIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS TO THE WEST AND IT WILL
TAKE A WHILE TO LIFT NORTHEAST. SOME THIN SPOTS AND BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS COULD SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
PROBABLY CONFINED TO THE AREA AROUND FINDLAY AND MARION. THE
REMAINDER WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUDS. HIGHS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 30S.

850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT -9C ON TUESDAY. 
JUST COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT. THE FLOW IS
SOUTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BUT A TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY AND WINDS MAY SHIFT WEST AND
THEN NORTHWEST. THE INVERSION IS PROGGED TO REMAIN LOW AND WEAK
RIDGING WILL PUSH IN. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW AFTER THE WIND SHIFT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR A LITTLE LAKE EFFECT TO SHIFT INLAND. I
SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR TWO IN SOME SPOTS ACROSS
ASHTABULA COUNTY OR NORTHWEST PA BUT MY HUNCH IS THAT MOST AREAS
WILL SEE LITTLE/NO ACCUMULATION.

WE SHOULD BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A STORM ALONG THE 
EAST COAST (GOOD TIMING FOR THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL) AND THE NEXT 
SHORT WAVE DIVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WE MAY SEE A LITTLE SUNSHINE 
ON WEDNESDAY. 

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SOMEWHAT ARCTIC IN NATURE AND WILL ARRIVE
EARLY THURSDAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL GET COLD
ENOUGH THAT A GENERAL SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY PATTERN WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE EFFECT AREA WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW. CANT SAY
THAT SOMEONE IN THE SNOWBELT WOULDN'T GET AN INCH OR TWO OR THREE
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINALLY COLD FOR ACCUMULATION...IN THE
30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY AND A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH TO 
THE GREAT LAKES. AREA ON THE FAR EASTERN FRINGES OF THE BETTER 
MOISTURE...BUT COULD GET A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES FROM THE 
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SATURDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE 
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING US A TEMPORARY WARM UP. 
THIS WILL PULL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND BACK UP INTO THE 
40S. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE LATE ENOUGH 
SUNDAY KEEP TO STAY...RELATIVELY...MILD. COLD FRONT AND 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEST SUNDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW COLD AIR LIMITED 
BEHIND THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER...THEY WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE FRONT WAS JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUDS DECREASED
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL INCREASE QUICKLY. OTHERWISE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS WITH CEILING NEAR 3000 THOUSAND FEET AND THEY WILL LAST
INTO TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO
WEDNESDAY. NON VFR AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LINGERING
ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP THE GALE WARNING AS IS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 35 AND 
45 KNOTS...TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING TUESDAY. AS OF 3PM COLD FRONT 
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE LAKE FROM WEST TO EAST. LOW WATER LEVELS 
ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE JUST 
SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO PULL NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND 
TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ON THE LAKE UNTIL HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL 
TREND TOWARD NORTHWEST GOING INTO THURSDAY AS A CLIPPER COMING 
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES GETS ABSORBED INTO A STRONGER EAST COAST LOW 
AND LINGERS A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY 
AND THEN A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE LAKE SATURDAY. OTHER THAN 
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THAT WILL FOLLOW THE GALES...THURSDAY 
COULD REACH CRITERIA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ061-145>149-165>169.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK/KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...OUDEMAN






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