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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 291751
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
151 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO 
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON FRIDAY DRAGGING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER AND SURFACE TROF WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS
EXPECTED. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE BEST THREAT FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE LAKESHORE EAST OF
ASHTABULA WHERE THE MOISTURE IS BEST. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE...NOW 
OVER THE PLAINS STATES...MOVING INTO NW OH TONIGHT AND OVER THE 
ENTIRE AREA ON THURSDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON FRIDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST 
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH THE LOW.  BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT 
WILL SEE FIRST TASTE OF WINTER. WITH A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW OFF
THE LAKE AND 850MB TEMPS DIPPING TO -5C...EXPECT PRIMARY AND SECONDARY
SNOWBELT TO PICK UP A LITTLE SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOR NOW STILL SOME DOUBTS WITH
MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS 
MAY ALLOW A FEW FLURRIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. 
OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ENTIRE 
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD IT WILL HELP TO 
BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED SOME UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD AT LEAST GET TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL 
AVERAGES FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 40S ON SUNDAY 
IT APPEARS MOST LOCATIONS WILL RETURN TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S BY 
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE UNCERTAIN WITH THE TIMING OF THE ONSET 
OF SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
AS A TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS LAKE ERIE. WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY ALL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS
THROUGH 23Z. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP WITH THE TROUGH AND
INCLUDED A WINDOW OF -SHRA AT ERI FROM 00-05Z. CAN NOT RULE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS AT TOL OR CLE BUT CHANCES WERE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE
OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LIGHT AND BRIEF NATURE. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND LINGER INTO
THURSDAY. WESTERN SITES WILL TRY TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT. 

.OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD NON VFR THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEXT TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY. 
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE 
TROUGH APPROACHES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE JUST AHEAD OF 
AND IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. THOUGHT ABOUT EXPANDING THE SMALL 
CRAFT ADVISORY FURTHER TO THE WEST BUT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH 2 TO 4 
FOOT WAVES MAY END UP BEING THE BEST FORECAST ON THE WESTERN BASIN. 
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS THE BETTER COLD ADVECTION 
MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE TROUGH. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SLOWLY 
DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ONTO THE LAKE. THIS HIGH 
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE 
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS LAKE ERIE IT 
WILL BRING VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER BY FRIDAY 
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WINDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE 
AND MAY APPROACH A LOW END GALE. AT THIS POINT 30 KNOTS LOOKS TO BE 
A GOOD FORECAST BUT WILL MONITOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WINDS 
SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH 
PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...KEC/MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN






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