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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 011721
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
121 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH
OF THE LAKES OVERNIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
ACTIVITY OVER EXTREME WESTERN OHIO DISSIPATED BUT SHOULD REDEVELOP
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THE NEW ACTIVITY. STARTING TO SEE A
FAIR NUMBER OF BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ALLOWING FOR INCREASED
HEATING TO TAKE PLACE SO WILL BUMP UP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING TO THE NW THIS EVENING WILL PUSH THE AXIS 
OF DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH OVER NRN OHIO. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECTING TO SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE AXIS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER COULD SEE A POSSIBLE SCENARIO
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FAVOR A TRACK TO THE SOUTH INTO
THE BETTER INSTABILITY...DISRUPTING THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY. LEFT POPS AT 60-80 PERCENT INSTEAD OF
GOING HIGHER GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST
WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY IN THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH
STORM MOTION PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW.

WILL ALLOW LIKELY POPS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT 
SINKS SOUTH ON TUESDAY. DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FROM THE NW BY LATE 
AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY 
WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SO HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO 
80...EXCEPT IN NW OHIO WHERE CLOUDS MAY START TO BREAK OUT DURING 
THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND 
LOWER HUMIDITY BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 
70S TO LOW 80S. THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AS THE NEXT 
LOW TRACKS OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS 
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN 
THE DAKOTAS. MODELS BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY 
EVENING/FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF LAGS MOISTURE THROUGH THE 
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS MOVES DRY AIR INTO NWRN OHIO BY SATURDAY 
MORNING.  ECMWF TIMING WOULD HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS WOULD 
SUGGEST MAINLY DRY.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE ECMWF TIMING OF THE 
MOISTURE AND HOLD ONTO A CHANCE POP SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGH 
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE 
DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP 
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS. 
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY FALLING TO NEAR TO BELOW SATURDAY AND 
SUNDAY...BUT STILL HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
JUST A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT NOW BUT EXPECT THE
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD. AS USUAL...TIMING OF THE
STORMS IS A CHALLENGE. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP THROUGH SUNSET WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA.
ALREADY SEEING A LINE DEVELOPING EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PUSH INTO THE KTOL AND KFDY AREAS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST CHANCES FOR THUNDER ARE LESS AS THIS LINE
SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. WILL CONTINUE ONLY WITH A VICINITY MENTION AT KCLE AND THAT
IS MAINLY TO COVER ANY POP UP STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LINE. BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.
EXPECT A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF AT LEAST MODERATE RAINFALL
BEGINNING IN THE WEST AROUND 09Z AND IN NW PA AFTER DAYBREAK. SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS CONVECTION. EXPECT NW
OH TO DRY OUT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONT WILL BE EAST
OF THAT AREA BY 18Z. LINGERING MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WILL REDEVELOP SOON AFTER THE RAIN BEGINS LATE
TONIGHT. S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. SPEEDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECTING PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE LAKE TODAY AND EARLY 
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO MAINLY WEST DURING THE DAY 
TUESDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW 
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE. THURSDAY ITS BACK TO 
SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN LAKES AND HIGH 
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. FRIDAY EXPECT A COLD FRONT 
TO MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.  
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST IN 
ITS WAKE. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...TK






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