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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 230451
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1151 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. 
A RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SENDING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SEVERAL CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE AS AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES
TO EXPAND UPSTREAM ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS IS LOCATED
AHEAD OF A PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING OUT OF MISSOURI THAT WILL ROUND
THE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT. 00Z NAM MAINTAINED THE TREND
SEEN ON THE 18Z RUN WITH HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT
FOR ALL BUT EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. WITH SUPPORT FROM THE
HRRR...RAISED POPS TO 70-90 PERCENT ACROSS NW OHIO AND 50-80
PERCENT IN NE OHIO...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
ALSO CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH TOL/FDY AT 50 DEGREES AS OF 10 PM.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB UNTIL THE RAIN
ARRIVES...THEN DROP OFF A FEW DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS LAGGING
BEHIND IN THE LOWER 40S.

SOME CHANGES WERE ALSO MADE TO WIND GUSTS ON MONDAY. RAISED WIND
GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ALL AREAS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT MAY EVEN
SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN OHIO NW/CENTRAL OHIO...AND POSSIBLY
UP THE LAKESHORE. THESE COULD COME EITHER WITH SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT OR WITH PRETTY GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM AND STRONG PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THE FRONT. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
ON FUTURE MODEL RUNS. 

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...A LEAD SHORT WAVE STREAKING OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL
LIKELY CLIP NORTHWEST OHIO LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE JUST A FEW
SPRINKLES OR BRIEF SHOWERS TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION AND A NICE
LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUE.

SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY UP TONIGHT...GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH DOWN SLOPE AREAS...IN PARTICULAR THE EAST
LAKESHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND THROUGH ERIE COUNTY PA WHERE GUSTS OF
30-35 STILL LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR A WHILE SUNDAY. A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS SHOULD 
BE EXITING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT OUT 
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...PROBABLY SPREADING
NORTH TO ABOUT THE TURNPIKE BY DARK. THE RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL IN THE 50S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT...WHETHER IT
WILL BE A LINE OF SHOWERS OR SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME CONCERN FOR
WIND ON MONDAY. THE SYNOPTIC WIND WILL PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION. THERE COULD BE CONVECTIVE
WINDS IF WE CAN GET A LINE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. 

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM ON MONDAY...IN THE 50S UNTIL THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH...THEN TEMPS SHOULD START TO DROP OFF. THE AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS SEASONABLY COLD. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH COASTAL LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY 
WITH A RIDGE OVER FORECAST AREA.  MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT.  CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL LAKES DRAGGING ANOTHER 
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND KICKING OFF A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW.  
ECMWF MOVES THE SNOW INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS 
HOLDS OFF UNTIL THANKSGIVING DAY.  PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD 
THE GFS SO WITH SO WENT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS 
ON THANKSGIVING.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW WITH 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN QUICKLY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND THEN A LARGE BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR 
WITH THIS. THE STRONG WINDS AT 2000 ABOVE THE GROUND ARE
DECREASING THUS THE THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS DIMINISHING.

A DRY SLOT FOR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
SOME VFR OR BARELY MVFR CEILINGS AND THEN MORE SHOWERS MOVING INTO
NW OHIO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST IN THE EVENING.
THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW AND FRONT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND
THEY WILL BE ESPECIALLY STRONG ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREA.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND
THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
STRONG ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED GALE WATCH STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY
BASED ON SOME OF THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. INCREASED THE WINDS ON THE
EAST END TO 40 KNOTS...IT MAY EVEN HAVE TO BE RAISED MORE. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. ALSO MENTIONED IN THE MARINE WEATHER
MESSAGE AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW WATER
STARTING LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE
AS THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT ON THE EAST
HALF OF THE LAKE. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE STRONG FRONT ACROSS THE
LAKE ON MONDAY. THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. GFS IS DEEPER WITH LOW AND THUS ALSO HAS THE
HIGHER WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR 
     LEZ061-146>149-166>169.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR 
     LEZ142>145-162>165.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...DJB/KIELTYKA






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