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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 242224
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
624 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY WEATHER ON TAP TO FINISH OFF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SATURDAY WITH A RETURN OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE FIRST EVENING UPDATE. MADE A FEW MINOR
EDITS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND SKY GRIDS. OVERNIGHT FORECAST
LOWS STILL APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE REGION IS AIDING IN CLOUD
GROWTH OVER THE AREA DESPITE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. ADDITIONAL
MIXING AND DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION SHOULD DISSIPATE ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS BY THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT A COLD POOL WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION WITH H850 TEMPS AROUND 8-10C. THIS COMBINED
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
BOTTOMING OUT. THE AMOUNT OF CONTINUED MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO
PLAY A PART IN HOW LOW THE SURFACE DEW POINTS GET OVERNIGHT WHICH
COULD CAUSE A 1-2 DEG DIFFERENCE FROM FORECASTED. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S TO MID 40S IN
HIGHER TERRAIN IN NW PA. EXCEPT FOR IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S OVERNIGHT.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JULY 25 ARE
48-AKRON...47-CLEVELAND...50-TOLEDO...45-MANSFIELD...44-YOUNGSTOWN
49-ERIE PA. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF A RECORD OR TWO WERE SET
GIVEN THE RIGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD START TO THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL MAKE REACHING TEMPS ABOVE
THE LOW/MID 70S DIFFICULT. THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL WEAKEN
SUPPORTING TEMPS A FEW DEG WARMER THAN TODAY. THE COLD AIR ALOFT
AND GOOD SOLAR HEATING WILL SUPPORT GENEROUS CU DEVELOPMENT. SOUTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY INCREASE DEW
POINTS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT A DECENT MOISTURE INFLUX ON INCREASING SW
FLOW WILL SUPPORT A RAPID RISE IN HUMIDITY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT LIFTS NORTH...BUT
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RECOVERY IN THE REGION IT WILL LIKELY
TAKE ADVECTING STORMS INTO THE REGION OR WAITING UNTIL MIDDAY
SATURDAY FOR THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN. WITH THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE IT WON'T TAKE MUCH TO DESTABILIZE
CONDITIONS WITH THE COLD POOL STILL ALOFT. THE CAVEAT MAY BE THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND/OR CAP WHICH WILL INHIBIT STORM ACTIVITY
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. SPC HAS THE REGION OUTLOOKED FOR DAY 3 DUE
TO THE MODEST AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND HIGH INSTABILITY. A STRONG
UPPER LVL TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE UPPER LAKES SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AGAIN KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR STORMS OVER THE
REGION. TIMING ON SOME OF THE BOUNDARIES AND PERTURBATIONS MOVING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW IS CONFLICTING AMONGST THE MODELS MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT WHEN THE BREAKS IN THE RAIN WILL COME.
OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK RELATIVELY MODEST FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING UNDER AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY MONDAY A LARGE TROUGH WILL HAVE BEEN CUT OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN 
U.S. SO AGAIN WE WILL BE RUNNING TEMPERATURES THAT ARE A GOOD 10+ 
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH A SLOW RECOVERY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. 
THAT FINAL PUSH OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. WITH 
H8 TEMPS DIPPING TO AROUND 8C SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET WITH 
AND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WE STAY 
ON THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE SURFACE HIGH...SO 
RUN 20 OR 30 PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK. IT IS NOT 
UNTIL THURSDAY THAT ENOUGH HEAT AND MOISTURE RETURN TO ADD THE 
MENTION OF THUNDER. NIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL TOO...WITH WEDNESDAY 
LOOKING TO BE THE COOLEST WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD. DEFINITELY 50S FOR 
LOWS...IF NOT A FEW UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. CURRENT LOW END VFR CUMULUS TO FADE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL CALM DOWN AND WE WILL GO
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR FRIDAY...WITH A
LAKE BREEZE AT ERIE. WILL GET SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPILL OVER
INTO WESTERN OHIO BY AFTERNOON FRIDAY. A FEW CUMULUS TOMORROW TOO.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SAT THRU MON.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL START OUT THE AFTERNOON WITH A CHOPPY 2 TO 4 FOOT LAKE AS THE 
NORTHEAST WINDS SUBSIDE QUICKLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD 
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE FINE DAY WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AND NO 
STORMS. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WITH THE 
ARRIVAL OF A WARM FRONT AND THE BEGINNING OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES 
THAT WILL RUN THROUGH MONDAY. ONE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE WEST 
TO EAST SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ON SUNDAY AND A THIRD MONDAY. 
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY WITH EACH OF THESE 
FRONTS...WITH A FINAL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. THE AMOUNT 
OF WIND IS UNCERTAIN...BUT COULD GET A PERIOD OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER 
THE WEEKEND. MONDAY WILL HAVE A GOOD COLD PUSH AND WILL LIKELY NEED 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE TRIES 
TO EDGE IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN






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