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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 280606
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
206 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW NEAR DETROIT WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY THEN 
DRIFT NORTH INTO EASTERN CANADA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH 
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SPREAD UP THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY 
THEN REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW 
PRESSURE IS STALLED OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE WATCH IS GONE. HAD SOME GLITCHES WITH THE EARLIER EXTENSION BUT
HOPEFULLY THING ARE BETTER NOW. THANKS FOR YOUR PATIENCE. THE
REMAINING WARNINGS WILL EXPIRE SHORTLY. STILL EXPECTING SOME
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE COMING IN STILL
SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY ALONG THE EAST
LAKESHORE. ELSEWHERE PRECIP CHANCES WILL FINALLY TO DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  WILL MAKE OTHER CHANGES AS NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WRAP SHRA ARE SHOWN TO AFFECT THE SNOWBELT AREA IN THE MORNING 
BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS DURING THE DAY AS THE S/W MOVES OFF TO THE 
EAST TAKING THE DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. A LITTLE THUNDER IS 
POSSIBLE MONDAY BUT MOST PLACES SHOULD JUST SEE SHRA SO WILL 
CONTINUE TO NOT MENTION TSRA. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER MON 
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW A FEW SHRA TO HANG AROUND 
IN THE SNOWBELT MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. LATER TUE...ANOTHER 
UPPER S/W DROPS INTO THE AREA SHARPENING THE MAIN TROUGH WHILE 
INDUCING A SURFACE TROUGH. THERE SHOULD BE AN OVERALL PICKUP IN SCT 
SHRA LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. WILL MAKE THE THREAT FOR SHRA MORE 
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWA AND CONTINUE THIS THRU WED AS ANOTHER OF A 
SERIES OF S/W'S WILL DIVE INTO THE MAIN TROUGH TO KEEP IT OVER THE 
AREA. TEMPS TUE AND WED WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HARD TO GET TOO SPECIFIC IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. 
THE TROUGH ALOFT IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN MID WEEK AND THEN LINGER. THE 
GFS HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS SOLUTION OF A LONG LASTING 
CLOSED LOW BUT ALL OF THE MODELS MAINTAINS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP 
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND. IT WILL 
BE DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT A DAY WITH NO CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS 
AT NIGHT WHEN CONVECTIVE PROCESSES DIMINISH. NOT GOING TO GO WITH 
ANYTHING MORE THAN A "CHANCE" OF SHOWERS AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE 
LACK OF DETAILS ALTHOUGH AT SOME POINT A TROUGH OR SHORT WAVE WILL 
ROTATE THROUGH AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. 

TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND A LOT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND 
SHOWERS BUT THE PATTERN SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES AT LEAST A FEW 
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 5 OR 6 DEGREES BELOW 
NORMAL. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO CREEP UP JUST A BIT SO THE 
AIR MASS WILL LOOSE ITS CRISP AND COOL FEELING AND PROBABLY START TO 
GET A DAMP AND COOL FEELING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST 
ACROSS NEW YORK TODAY. CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE TO START THE 
TAF CYCLE WITH LOW IFR CEILINGS AT CAK/YNG WHILE MANY OTHER 
LOCATIONS ARE VFR. MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CLOUDS ARE SEEN MOVING SE 
ACROSS MICHIGAN AND EXPECT AN MVFR DECK TO FILL IN AT THOSE SITES 
THROUGH 09Z. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOP 
ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND EXTENDING S TOWARDS CLE. THIS BAND WILL MOVE 
TOWARDS ERI BY 09Z WITH LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS REALLY INCREASING IN 
COVERAGE OFF OF EASTERN LAKE ERIE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW BETWEEN 
10-15Z. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO EFFECT CLE/ERI/YNG AND POSSIBLY CAK. 
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING TO 15-20 
KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL REALLY 
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING CLOUDS LIFTING TO 
2500-3500 FEET. 

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT ALONG WITH A 
SURFACE LOW. IN THE MEAN TIME WE WILL HAVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM 
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN OF THE LAKE SO THE 
WIND WILL BE VARIABLE AND PERHAPS GUSTY AT TIMES THIS EVENING. STILL 
NOT SURE EXACTLY WHERE THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK...PROBABLY ACROSS 
EASTERN LAKE ERIE... SO THE WIND SHIFT MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY MONDAY 
ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED 
MONDAY AS THE COLD ADVECTION INCREASES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IT 
WILL NOT BE A GOOD DAY FOR RECREATIONAL BOATING. WATERSPOUTS ARE 
ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY...PERHAPS INTO TUESDAY... AS THE AIR ALOFT WILL 
BE UNSEASONABLY COOL.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE 
COUNTRY WILL TAKE ALL WEEK TO MOVE EAST AS THE TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS. 
THE END RESULT WILL BE A SURFACE FLOW VARYING FROM SOUTHWEST TO 
NORTHWEST MUCH OF THE WEEK. EACH TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT CROSSES 
THE LAKE CAN RESULT IN A PERIOD OF HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ011>014-023-
     089.
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KOSARIK






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