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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 201347
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
947 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TODAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING 
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD 
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE 
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AND EXPAND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON 
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE NUDGED HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR TWO AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS AFTER
LOOKING AT AREA SOUNDINGS. OTHERWISE HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES
TO CLOUD COVER AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST
VIRGINIA AND PENNSYLVANIA ON FRIDAY AND THIS MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN
ON THE 00Z PBZ SOUNDING IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. THIS MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST OHIO ON SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
PARTLY TO BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. DESPITE THIS CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S FOR ALL BUT INTERIOR NW PA. EVEN CARRYING 80 DEGREES IN A FEW
WESTERN COUNTIES GIVEN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 15-20 MPH
RANGE. WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 MPH AT TIMES IN NW OHIO.

MOISTURE WILL ALSO SNEAK INTO NW OHIO LATE IN THE DAY IN THE 
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE AIRMASS WILL 
REQUIRE CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS AND 
MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A CAP NEAR 850MB IN PLACE AT TOL THROUGH 
22Z. WILL KEEP POPS LOW IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR BOWLING GREEN 
TO TOLEDO AND HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT FOR PRECIP ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL BE WATCHING THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION SEEN EARLY 
THIS MORNING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND IOWA. IF VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS 
ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AS SHOWN ON THE 
00Z 4KM SPC WRF-NMM RUN THEN MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT 
MAY BE DISRUPTED. THIS COULD DELAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS 
NW OHIO BUT OVERALL STILL EXPECTING SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS TO FILL OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES 
AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM THE 
NORTH. RAISED TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON SATURDAY NIGHT. 

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS NRN OHIO ON SUNDAY FORCING 
A STRONG COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. A 125 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET 
WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH THE ORIENTATION BECOMING 
NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY NEGATIVE. THIS RESULTS IN SOME INTERESTING 
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AS THE NAM IS SLOWER AND STRONGER 
WITH THE SURFACE LOW CROSSING LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY. THE STRONGER AND 
SLOWER LOW WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE OF AN OPPORTUNITY FOR NE OHIO TO 
DESTABILIZE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. 
INITIALLY LEANING TOWARDS THE NAM WHICH SOMETIMES SEEMS TO DO A 
BETTER JOB WITH AMPLIFICATION OF THE SURFACE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH 
THESE HIGHLY DYNAMIC SYSTEMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED 
NORTHEAST OHIO IN A SEE TEXT WITH A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORMS IN NE OHIO AND NW PA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NOT 
EXPECTING MUCH SUN...BUT IF TEMPERATURES CAN RECOVER INTO THE MID 
70S THEN MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH STRONG SHEAR AND 
UPWARD MOMENTUM. LOOKS LIKE FRONTAL TIMING DURING THE EARLY 
AFTERNOON WOULD PLACE BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR 
EAST WHERE THEY WILL ALIGN WITH PEAK HEATING BUT TIMING WILL 
CERTAINLY BE SOMETHING TO WATCH. 

COLD AIR SURGES SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LAKE 
EFFECT SHOWERS INCREASING. THIS WILL BE FOR A FAIRLY SHORT WINDOW AS 
THE TROUGH QUICKLY PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST AND VERY DRY AIR 
OVERSPREADS THE LAKE. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE COOL AND MUCH OF NE 
OH/NW PA WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 50S. NW OHIO SHOULD BE ABLE TO 
REACH THE LOW 60S WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED. 

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS 
AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETTING UP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR 
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MINS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW 40S BUT COULD 
SEE A FEW OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS DIP INTO THE 30S. HEIGHTS ALOFT 
REBOUND QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 6-8 DEGREES 
FROM MONDAYS HIGHS...EVEN AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THIS 
PERIOD. A RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. USED A BLEND OF 
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BE INCREASING TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. NOT MUCH FOG HAS DEVELOPED WHICH WAS
EXPECTED...ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY. 

THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN ITS LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. SOME BROKEN VFR CEILINGS NEAR 4500 FEET COULD DEVELOP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA. CONFIDENCE IS
MARGINAL...THE BEST CHANCE FOR BROKEN CLOUDS WILL BE JUST AHEAD
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE SPREADING IN FROM
THE NW AFTER 8 PM. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THEN NON-VFR CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FOR TODAY THE GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD 
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. AS THE WINDS INCREASE 
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR WILL BE MOVING IN ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND 
THAT MAY HELP KEEP THE WINDS FROM GETTING OUT OF CONTROL ON THE 
LAKE. AT THIS TIME LEANING TOWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS EXCEPT ON THE 
EXTREME EAST END WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND THE 
SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD CAUSE WAVES APPROACHING 3 TO 5 FEET. WILL HAVE 
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA THROUGH 9 PM. 

OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASING 
WINDS FROM THE WEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY 
NIGHT WHEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. AFTER THAT 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THAT WILL 
KEEP THE WINDS WESTERLY ON THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY 
EVENING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND SPEEDS MAINLY ON THE 
EAST END OF THE LAKE AS THE WAVES WILL BE CHOPPY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE 
NORTHEAST AND THAT WILL MEAN AND EAST OR SOUTHEAST FLOW. AT THIS 
TIME THE WINDS SEEM LIGHT ENOUGH THAT IT WILL NOT PROMPT THE NEED 
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NEEDED ON THE LAKE 
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. MARINERS WILL NEED TO BE CAUTIOUS AS 
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA






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