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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 261504
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1004 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY 
TODAY...THEN MERGE WITH A COASTAL LOW OFF MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS 
EVENING. A LARGE ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES FRIDAY 
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
RAISED POPS TO 80-90 PERCENT MOST AREAS BUT ADJUSTED THE WORDING
TO CALL IT LIGHT SNOW. FLAKE SIZE IS SMALL TODAY AND WILL BE HARD
TO ACCUMULATE WITH LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED ALL AREAS. OTHERWISE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST SW OF ST LOUIS. THE SNOW SHIELD NOW 
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REACH NW OHIO BY NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.   
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING.  BUMPED 
POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.   SNOW SHOULD BE 
EXITING THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.  QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WITH A 
WIDESPREAD 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING.  
DOES NOT APPEAR THAT A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.  CLOUDS 
MOVED IN QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AND TEMPS ARE HOVERING IN THE 10 TO 15 
DEGREE RANGE WITH WIND CHILLS OF A ONLY COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COULD BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EAST THIS EVENING.  BUT 
BELIEVE IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS DRY ARCTIC AIR AGAIN SPILLS OVER 
THE AREA.  MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE 
ARCTIC HIGH.   HIGH CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA EXPECTED TO BE 
CENTERED OVER IOWA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AND OVER THE LOWER LAKES BY 
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.    

TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE -5 TO -10 
DEGREE RANGE.  IF CLOUDS ARE SLOW TO MOVE OUT TONIGHT TEMPS WILL BE 
A FEW DEGREES WARMER FOR TONIGHT. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE WINDS DIE DOWN.

MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE THE NEXT SYSTEM THROUGH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY 
NIGHT.  AS ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS OFF MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL HAVE SOME 
GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO TO...SO POSSIBILITY THAT SOME AREAS MAY 
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS CONCERNING THE 
STORM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW THE PRECIP 
DONE IN THE WEST BY 12Z MONDAY OR THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  
THIS MATCHES UP WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WILL MAKE LITTLE 
CHANGE. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL 
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY.  VERY VERY STRONG 
WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY AS 850 
MB TEMPS WARM TO PLUS 8 OR SO BY 00Z WED.  CRITICAL THICKNESSES 
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY.  THE ONLY CONCERN THEN IS IF THE COLD AIR NEAR 
THE SURFACE WILL GET SCOURED OR WARMED BY THE PRECIP.  HAVE NUDGED 
TEMPS UP FOR TUESDAY AND HAVE GIVEN MUCH OF THE AREA MIXED RAIN AND 
SNOW FOR THE FORECAST.  SUSPECT THAT TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE NUDGED UP 
MORE AS THE TIME APPROACHES.  THE GOOD NEWS IN THIS IF THERE IS 
ANY...IS THAT NEW GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SOUTH OF THE 
LOCAL AREA WHICH IS A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY.  THE PRECIP SHOULD 
TRANSITION BACK TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS BACK 
IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM.  LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE THEN POSSIBLE 
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA. SOME IFR
SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED ALREADY AT KBJJ AND KCAK AND EXPECT THAT
TO BECOME COMMON BY LATE MORNING. MORE IFR SNOW CONTINUES TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AS WELL. EXPECT CIGS TO DIP TO MVFR SHORTLY
AFTER THE STEADIER SNOW BEGINS WITH POCKETS OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE FROM
MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. SHOULD
START TO SEE THE SNOW TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ALL BUT FAR NE OH AND NW DRY BY SUNSET. CIGS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN MVFR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH IMPROVEMENT
TOO VFR EXPECTED ONLY IN THE WEST. NE FLOW WILL BECOME NW AND
DIMINISH TO 5 KNOTS OF LESS THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD ON LAKE 
ERIE. WINDS WILL BECOME RATHER LIGHT AND MAINLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST 
TODAY AND TOMORROW AS ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS 
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT S TO SW 
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PASSES TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL 
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT SWITCHING THE FLOW BACK TO THE NW.  THIS 
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE 
REGION.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/KEC
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA







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