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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 230003
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
803 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE REGION WILL DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE OHIO 
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE 
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE 
GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES AND
SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS HELPING TO PRODUCE THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN SOME
AFTER SUNSET BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE
AFTER DARK. INSTABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING ANY AT
THIS TIME. REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE
ERIE AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MADE SOME VERY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN 
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION.  HOWEVER...THIS HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER 
THE REGION AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.  THIS 
IS PARTICULARLY TRUE OVER NE OH AND NW PA WHERE THE RIDGE WILL TAKE A 
LITTLE LONGER TO BUILD.  I WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS 
IN THIS AREA ON SATURDAY.  RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE AREA SUNDAY AND 
MONDAY SO I WILL REMOVE ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE 
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH I BELIEVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE 
QUESTION AT ANY TIME.  THE 12Z GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE TO LOW ON 
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING.  THESE HIGH 
DEW POINTS ARE AROUND TO STAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP 
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS UP.  I WILL ADJUST GUIDANCE UPWARD ON THE 
OVERNIGHT LOWS.  THE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE 
REASONABLE SO I WILL NOT MAKE MANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS 
WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN ON THE HEELS OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH TUESDAY 
THROUGH THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATE 
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION 
BENEATH THE DIVERGENT AXIS OF THE TROUGH. GIVEN THE VARYING 
SOLUTIONS OF THE 12Z/GFS AND 00Z/ECMWF RUNS...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE 
TO GO LIKELY POPS YET...BUT CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IN LATER 
ITERATIONS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. TUE AND WED WILL BE WARM PRIOR 
TO FROPA WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80/S. DIALED BACK THE HIGH TEMPS 
SOME ON WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES WITH THE THOUGHT CLOUD COVER WILL 
LIMIT HEATING. WED NIGHT TEMPS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOW 
60/S...PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 50/S...WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BOUNDARY THAT CAUSED THE CONVECTION IS MOVING SOUTH AND THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF A FDY TO MFD
TO YNG LINES WILL BE GONE BY MIDNIGHT...IF NOT SOONER. PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70. THE CLOUDS SHOULD
DECREASE...NOT CLEAR...SOME CLOUDS WILL BE FLOATING AROUND AND
SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP. GOING WITH NEAR DENSE FOG AT THE TYPICAL
SITES. WITH SO MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THE FOG WILL BURN OFF TO A
STRATUS DECK AND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ANY DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE ISOLATED AND INLAND OF LAKE ERIE.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING FOG AND THEN NON VFR POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON HAS GENERALLY BEEN LIGHT AND 
FROM THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT THE WIND TO BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS 
A STALLED OUT WARM FRONT SLOWLY MIGRATES SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER 
VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO CANADA ON 
SATURDAY...MAINTAINING AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND THROUGH 
MONDAY. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND WAVES LESS 
THAN 2 FEET. HOWEVER...THE WESTERN BASIN COULD SEE A PERIOD OF 3 
FEET IN THE NEARSHORE. BY LATE MONDAY THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE 
SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. POST 
FROPA THE WIND WILL TURN JUST NORTH OF WEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...MAYERS






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