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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 231723
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
123 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE 
TONIGHT. A LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT 
INTO SATURDAY PULLING A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS ACROSS OHIO. A RIDGE 
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT THEN 
SHIFT NORTHEAST BY MONDAY TO ALLOW A LOW TO SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE 
PLAINS INTO OHIO ON TUESDAY AND STALL THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PRECIPITATION HAS FOR THE MOST PART ENDED AS MUCH DRIER AIR PUSHES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. RAPID CLEARING TAKING PLACE AS EXPECTED
OVER LAKE ERIE AT THIS TIME. MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL PULL OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST ALLOWING THE DRY AIR TO PUSH IN.
EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES ALL AREAS BY MID AFTERNOON. SOME INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WITH THE SUN BUT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL LIKELY KEEP THEM FROM RISING TOO DRASTICALLY. CUT BACK A FEW
DEGREES ON MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH CROSSING THE AREA WILL MEAN LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SETTING THE 
STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT 
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE NIGHT 
WHICH SHOULD HELP TO LESSEN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. IT SHOULD STILL 
BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE CURRENT RUN WITH ALL BUT THE WEST AT OR 
BELOW FREEZING.

EVEN WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST ON THU...THERE SHOULD 
STILL BE ENOUGH DRY IN IN LOW LEVEL LEFT BEHIND TO KEEP THE DAY DRY 
BUT AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHRA COULD SLIP INTO THE TOL AREA. 
TEMPS WILL MODERATE BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL ON THU.

THE MODELS STILL SHOW A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVING THRU EARLY FRI 
AND AGAIN EARLY SAT. THE FIRST FRONT WILL BRING A BAND OF SHRA 
ACROSS THE CWA THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING BUT NOT PRODUCE MUCH OF A 
TEMP DROP. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME TSRA. THE 
SECOND FRONT WILL PRODUCE MORE OF A TEMP DROP FOR THE WEEKEND BUT 
SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN MAINLY JUST LAKE ENHANCED SHRA FOR THE 
SNOWBELT AREA ALONG WITH A FEW SCT SHRA RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPS 
BY LATE SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX WITH 
THE RAIN BUT THE SPOTTY NATURE OF THE SHOWERS BY THEN SHOULD LEAD TO 
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND 
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. IT APPEARS WE WILL STILL HAVE 
ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO KEEP RAIN FROM THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY 
BUT WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS 
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MODELS THEN STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT 
OF PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW FOR MONDAY 
INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS SEEM TO CATCH ONTO SOMETHING FOR 
TUESDAY. SO AT THIS POINT THIS WILL BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST 
CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST. THIS TYPE OF STORM SYSTEM TYPICALLY 
CREATES A DIURNAL TREND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS WHICH 
DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. THIS TREND MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL 
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  

HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD RECOVER BACK INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
50S...MAYBE A FEW 60S SOUTH. NEAR THE LAKESHORE IT WILL BE COOLER 
WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW ANTICIPATED. MONDAY WILL LIKELY WARM A COUPLE 
DEGREES BUT WILL ALL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF FILTERED SUNSHINE THAT 
CAN OCCUR. THE REGION SHOULD THEN BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER THIS ASSUMES 
THAT WE DO NOT GET AN ALL DAY STEADY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY STABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES IN NWRN OHIO WILL
CONTINUE. ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. 

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WEST AND
FRIDAY ELSEWHERE...BUT CLEARING FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY. THE 
STRONGEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THIS MORNING...THEN 
TAPERING OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THEY BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. WINDS 
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER LAKE 
ERIE TONIGHT. THOUGHT ABOUT BREAKING UP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 
AREA WITH THE WESTERN BASIN LIKELY DROPPING BELOW CRITERIA LATE IN 
THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ONE LAST 
LOOK AT IT AND DECIDE TO DROP THE WEST EARLY WITH THE MID MORNING 
UPDATE. 

OTHERWISE EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY 
AFTERNOON. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR LARGER WAVES ON THE WESTERN 
BASIN SINCE WE WILL HAVE A LONGER FETCH INTO THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS 
SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY AS A A COLD 
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF 
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TO 
GENERATE ANY HEADLINES. WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD MEAN A SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE LAKE. 

THERE WILL THEN BE A PERIOD OF QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND 
WITH EASTERLY WINDS INCREASING LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A 
LONG PERIOD OF EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP FOR NEXT WEEK AS UPPER 
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WOBBLES SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE TENNESSEE RIVER 
VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MULLEN






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