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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 121338
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
938 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY THEN OFF 
THE EAST COAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH FROM THE GULF OF 
MEXICO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST 
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS 
THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS IS ALIGNED FROM SOUTHWEST
ONTARIO THROUGH CLE TO NEAR PKB. WEAK SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING EAST OF THIS LINE WITH NEUTRAL ADVECTION TO THE WEST. THE
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA COMING OFF OF
ICE COVERED LAKE ERIE ALONG WITH RESIDUAL SNOWPACK WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING TO THEIR ADIABATIC WELL MIXED VALUES IN
THE MID 50S. CONSEQUENTLY WILL KEEP THE CURRENT FORECAST MAX
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS NW
PA AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE. SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER LOW SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER TEXAS IS ALREADY 
FOCUSING MOISTURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS MOISTURE WILL 
SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD 
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OUT OF THE PLAINS AND 
MERGES WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. THE QPF 
FORECAST FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING RANGES FROM 
AROUND AN INCH IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO A QUARTER INCH OR 
LESS TOWARDS TOLEDO. THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH SHOULD BE 
EFFECTIVE AT KEEPING THE HEAVIER QPF FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH. THIS 
RAINFALL COULD AGGRAVATE FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA. 
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY SHOULD REACH OR SURPASS THE 50 DEGREE MARK 
NEARLY EVERYWHERE. KEPT HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER IN THE SOUTH 
WHERE THE PRECIP WILL MOVE IN EARLIER. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT 
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING 
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE 
SNOWBELT BY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD SEE A MIX OR TRANSITION BACK 
OVER TO SNOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NE 
TO MID 40S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME TIMING ISSUES IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BUT ALL 
OF THE MODELS BEGIN TO REESTABLISH THE TROUGH IN THE EAST. THE ECMWF 
REMAINS THE FASTEST WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT...BRINGING IT ACROSS 
THE AREA EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. THE OTHER SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT SLOWER 
AND THE FORECAST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT 
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. OF COURSE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE 
CRITICAL TO TEMPERATURES SINCE IT WILL REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT. THE FORECAST TEMPS WILL BE A COMPROMISE TO ALLOW FOR THE 
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING. THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BUILD IN MID 
WEEK. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE COLDEST AIR. 
ALTHOUGH WE WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES DROP OFF MID WEEK...IT WILL 
HOPEFULLY NOT BE ABNORMALLY COLD...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL 
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO THE NORTH
TODAY. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST. LIGHT WINDS WILL VEER FROM NORTH TO EAST
SOUTHEAST.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR WILL DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY IN -RA/BR. NON VFR MAY LINGER ACROSS
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE INTO NEXT WEEK.
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND WINDS 
WILL VEER MORE FROM THE EAST AS THE DAY GOES ON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT 
IS DUE ON SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST ON 
SATURDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS. A STRONGER FRONT IS 
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. WINDS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY COULD REACH 
15 TO 25 KNOTS....FIRST FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST ON 
TUESDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. 

THE ICE ON THE LAKE WILL CONTINUE TO THIN. MOVEMENT OF THE ICE IS 
MORE LIKELY AS MORE OPEN WATER DEVELOPS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE WATER RELEASED FROM THE RECENT MELTING
SNOW ALONG WITH SUN AND MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY...ICE HAS BEGUN
TO SHIFT ON AREA RIVERS WITH SOME ICE JAMS BEING REPORTED AND A
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.  WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN
FRIDAY/SATURDAY THE ICE JAM THREAT WILL INCREASE. EXPECTED
RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM A THIRD OF AN INCH IN
THE NORTHWEST NEAR TOLEDO TO AROUND AN INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST FROM
KNOX TO STARK COUNTIES. AREAS MOST VULNERABLE WILL BE ALONG RIVERS
THAT FLOW INTO LAKE ERIE...WHICH ALSO REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ003-006>014-
     018>023-033-089.
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK
HYDROLOGY...LAPLANTE/JAMISON






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