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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 292235
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
635 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
DISSIPATE AS A WEAK TOUGH ALOFT SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY AND BUILD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY WEST THROUGH THE EVENING. ALSO
BOOSTED POPS TO CHANCE EAST BUT JUST BARELY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT
THIS TIME.

ORIGINAL...THE WEAKENING SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SLIDING
EAST OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL HAVE TO
DEAL WITH A FEW SHOWERS THAT HAVE BUBBLED UP FROM THE AFTERNOON
AND WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE GATE THIS
EVENING EXCEPT FOR AROUND ERIE PA.

DECENT UPPER DIVERGENCE IS PROGGED ALOFT IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION 
OF THE JET TONIGHT. PRETTY FEEBLE LOW LEVEL JET THOUGH...PROGGED TO 
DROP TO 15-20 KNOTS TONIGHT OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THESE WEAK WARM 
ADVECTION POSITIVELY TILTED SYSTEMS TEND TO DO BETTER AT NIGHT...AND 
DO ANTICIPATE SOME EXPANSION OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND 
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. THE ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHEAST OH
AND NORTHWEST PA LATER. NOT A BIG RISK OF THUNDER GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY WEAK UPWARD MOTION AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT BUT CANNOT RULE
IT OUT AND WILL KEEP IT IN THE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO TO
ABOUT THE I-71 CORRIDOR.

LOWS FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE IT WILL BE 
CLOUDIER AND DEW POINTS HAVE COME UP...TO LOWER 60S/AROUND 60 EXTREME 
NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE A DIMINISHING OF THE EARLY MORNING 
SHOWERS AND FEW NEW SHOWERS/STORMS BUBBLING UP. PROBABLY NOT A LOT 
OF DURATION BUT 30-50 POP FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS MAY NOT GET AS
WARM AS THEY COULD GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS. HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER 80S WITH SOME MID 80S WHERE THERE IS MORE SUNSHINE.

THE RIDGE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO REBOUND ON MONDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE 
BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO LOOK LIKE A CLASSIC 
BERMUDA HIGH THIS WEEK. DESPITE THE HEAT AND INCREASING 
DEW POINTS...AFTERNOON CONVECTION TENDS TO BE MINIMAL THIS TIME OF 
YEAR GIVEN THE RIDGING ALOFT...LOWER SUN ANGLE AND LACK OF A TRIGGER 
SO NOT REAL EXCITED ABOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORMS. CANNOT 
RULE OUT A FEW STORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND 
TO THE WEST WHERE THERE IS BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY 
LESS RIDGING. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY TO THE WEST MAY SPILL OVER INTO 
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S 
WITH UPPER 80S IN SOME OF THE WARMER SPOTS. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 
70. SUMMER HANGS ON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS GENERALLY STILL KEEP A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION DURING THE PERIOD BUT NOW THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF A
WEAK BACKDOOR SYSTEM DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE
THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY...OTHERWISE WILL KEEP SLIGHT OR LESS CHC POPS GOING
FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVE ISOLATED CONVECTION. TEMPS SHOULD
STAY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT WEAK CONVECTION
TO AFFECT THE REGION THRU SUNDAY. EXCEPT WHERE CONVECTION LOOKS
IMMINENT...WILL JUST USE VCTS IN TAFS TO COVER THE PROLONGED
THREAT FOR POSSIBLE THUNDER. INCREASING DEWPOINTS...NIGHTTIME
COOLING AND AREAS OF RAINFALL SHOULD WORK TOGETHER TO RESULT IN
LATE NIGHT FOG FOR MOST SITES ALTHOUGH THE WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT
ERI AND CLE SHOULD LESSEN THE THREAT AT THESE AIRPORTS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF NON VFR IN MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PATTERN WILL SHOW LITTLE CHANGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN 
CONTROL PRODUCING LIGHT MAINLY S TO SW WINDS. THERE IS SOME 
POSSIBILITY THAT A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT COULD DROP DOWN AROUND 
THE LAKE BY THU THAT WOULD TURN WINDS TO THE NE BUT EVEN IF THIS 
DOES OCCUR WINDS STILL LOOK TO STAY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS



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