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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 182354 CCA
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
653 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MIDDLE 30S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 20S FOR LOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 
SOME PATCHY FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY 9 PM. OVER THE SNOW BELT SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
WERE OCCURRING. OVER PARTS OF NW PA SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE
WAS OCCURRING. AT THIS TIME WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE. THE MODELS
ARE TRYING TO INDICATE THAT SOME SNOW BANDS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
SNOW BELT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND
INCREASE THE POPS AS NEEDED. NONE THE LESS THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS SUPPORTING SOME HIGH ECHO RETURNS ON THE RADAR
OVER THE SW ADVANCING INTO THE LOCAL REGION. MOST OF THIS WILL BE
ELEVATED HOWEVER INDIANA IS INDICATING SOME SNOW REACHING THE
GROUND. HAVE ONLY MINIMAL POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF
THE SNOWBELT AS THIS SHORTWAVE PASSES TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL WANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MIXED WITH
GRAUPEL. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH NEAR MIDNIGHT WHICH
WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT BANDS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
LAKESHORE...HOWEVER INSTABILITY IS NOT INDICATIVE OF NOTABLE
SNOWFALL RATES OR AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 
THE DYNAMICS SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS WILL CUT OFF EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING EXCEPT IN THE NE WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY WANE BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO ERODE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...FIRST IN THE NW.
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS SO HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. BY SATURDAY
THE GFS IS MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN THE OTHER MODELS IN TRYING TO
BREAK UP THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER BY THAT EVENING THE FLOW TURNS BACK
AROUND TO THE SW ALOFT WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN LOCK THE CLOUDS IN
UNDER AN INVERSION INTO SUNDAY. THE SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT SUPPORT SNOW/PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE IN AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK BUT STILL 
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE YET SINCE SURFACE FEATURES WITHIN DEEP TROUGHS 
ARE NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS.

WE DO KNOW THAT A DEEPENING TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI 
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER 
THE PLAINS STATES AND MOVE TO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. 
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST 
TOWARD THE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST DETAILS 
GET TRICKY AS VARIOUS SURFACE LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE 
COLD FRONT BY VARIOUS MODELS AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. MOST MODELS 
ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE BEST DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST BY MID 
WEEK WHICH COULD LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA WITH ESSENTIALLY JUST A 
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE SECONDARY SURFACE LOWS SOMETIMES RUN UP THE 
APPALACHIANS THOUGH SO THERE IS STILL A CHANCE TO CATCH SOME SNOW ON 
THE BACK SIDE. 

THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER VANILLA AT THIS POINT 
CALLING FOR SHOWERS LIKELY...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
TEMPS ARE ALSO TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE 
AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING 
A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY WARM DAYS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS 
BEHIND THE FRONT APPEARS IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD BY CHRISTMAS DAY 
ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL BLUSTERY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A MINOR UPPER DISTURBANCE/SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE NEAR KERI...OTHERS TAF SITES
SHOULD BE SNOW WITH BETTER MOISTURE FROM THE PASSING SHORTWAVE.
OVERNIGHT MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS FOR NE OH/NW PA SNOWBELT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. LOCALIZED
IFR CONDITIONS. CEILINGS MAY TRY AND BREAK UP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...THIS STRATUS DECK
HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO GET RID OF EVEN WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY STICK AROUND INTO SATURDAY. NON-VFR LIKELY
AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND IT IS EXPECTED 
THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CAN EXPIRE AT 10 PM. WINDS WILL VEER 
MORE NORTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND AND THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT 
AND VARIABLE BY SATURDAY. THE FLOW WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH 
EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KOSARIK










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