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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 142212
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
612 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT WHILE A TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THAT HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH MONDAY WHILE A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WEST/SW HALF OF THE AREA NOW MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. 
EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO INCREASE AGAIN AS AN UPPER LOW AND WRAP 
AROUND MOISTURE DROPS SE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL 
BRING BACK A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS/DRIZZLE INTO THE SNOWBELT 
OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE JUST RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MENTIONED...BUT 
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IT COULD BE FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THE END OF 
THE NIGHT IF TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 30 IN THE SNOWBELT AND THE PRECIP 
IS DRIZZLE VERSUS SNOW. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE DEPTH OF THE 
MOISTURE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BUFKIT OF NAM/GFS SUGGESTING 
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR JUST SNOW. HAVE GONE TOWARD THE 
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. WITH CLOUD COVER 
TONIGHT...WILL ONLY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL SLOWLY THROUGH THE 
30S...WITH MOST PLACES JUST TOUCHING FREEZING BY DAYBREAK.

FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR AREA STILL WITH POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM 
PROBLEMS. THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW FLOODING STILL EXISTS. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY ENDING
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. WINDS BEGIN TO
COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN OHIO BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALREADY TAKING PLACE. THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL SEE ENOUGH SUN TO GET THEM NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 50 DEGREES. COOLER ACROSS THE EAST.

MONDAY WILL BE QUITE MILD AS THE ENTIRE DAY IS IN THE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY NIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS...EXPECT
FOR THE SNOWBELT WILL HIT AND/OR EXCEED 60 DEGREES. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE ON A SLOW STEADY INCREASE WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. MAY
GET AN EARLY SPRINKLE AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME MONDAY. TIMING WITH
THE FRONT HAS COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT FOR MONDAY EVENING. A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIP
CHANCES SOME. 

COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STRONG MONDAY NIGHT AND IT CONTINUES INTO
TUESDAY AS THE HIGH TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST/WESTERN
LAKES. MUCH COOLER THAN MONDAY...BUT NOT TOO FAR FROM NORMAL. MAY
HAVE A FEW FLURRIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY... SLOWLY BUILDING EAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME
DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITH THE MODELS SHOWING SOME DISAGREEMENT
ABOUT THE EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS
MOISTURE. THE GFS IS COLDER BUT DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. BOTH SHOW
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL SIDE CLOSER TO THE COLDER
DRIER GFS. THAT TREND CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY ALTHOUGH EVEN
MORE DIVERGENCE BUILDS BETWEEN THE MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH
SO WILL SIDE TOWARDS WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN IS NOW OUT OF THE AREA AND COLD FRONT IS NOW ABOUT HALF WAY
THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR WITH
A FEW HOURS OF VFR LIKELY AT LEAST WEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO AGAIN MOVE INTO THE WEST MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
EVENTUALLY BREAKING AND CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS MODELS SHOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THEN. EAST OF THE FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NWRN PA WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFT OCCURRING.
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS ANOTHER
WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH CIGS
SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE WEST TO EAST AS DEWPOINTS LOWER BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.


.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY LINGER ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SUNDAY.
NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO GALES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  EXPECTING WEST TO NORTHWEST 
FLOW TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO 15-20 KNOTS IN THE 
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY. SUNDAY HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE AND THEN DROP SOUTH TO THE 
TENNESSEE VALLEY ON MONDAY. MONDAY EVENING WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL 
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LAKE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT.  WINDS WILL 
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A SECOND COLD FRONT 
MONDAY NIGHT.   WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO 
THURSDAY AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS 
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ003-006>010-012-
     014-018-019-089.
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK







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