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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 240812
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
412 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY 
ON SATURDAY. A TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES 
LATE SATURDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND 
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY THEN 
SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS 
THE AREA ON MONDAY. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE AREA TO START THE DAY WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING NORTH INTO QUEBEC ALOFT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOCATED OVER 
ILLINOIS WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH LITTLE IMPACT GIVEN THE VERY 
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. CIRRUS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AHEAD OF THE 
SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING. LOWER CLOUDS ARE SHOWING UP 
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTH ACROSS LAKE 
MICHIGAN INTO ILLINOIS AND WILL SPREAD INTO NW OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. 
AREAS TO THE EAST WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS CLEARING THROUGH THE 
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO 
THE SOUTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 3-5 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAYS 
HIGHS IN MOST AREAS...YIELDING VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S IN NW PA TO 
LOW 60S IN NRN OHIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. 

THE SURFACE HIGHS WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT AND
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST WITH TIME. SOME
BREAKS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS SO WILL CARRY
PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING IN THE FORECAST. CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO
THICKEN INTO SATURDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHALLOW ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR SATURDAY.
MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR ON SATURDAY AND NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES. WILL CARRY A LOW 20 POP
IN SOME OF THE EASTERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE FLOW
REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM...REACHING THE UPPER 60S IN
PORTIONS OF NW OHIO.

A 160 KNOT JET ALOFT SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING TO OUR EAST. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO NE OHIO/NW PA SATURDAY EVENING WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY DROPPING TO 2C BUT THE COOLEST AIR WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR EAST. CONSIDERABLE DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SO REMOVED PRECIPITATION FROM
THE FORECAST BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT EVEN DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE.

THE NEXT SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. WE WILL 
SEE ABOUT A 10 DEGREES SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO EAST 
ACROSS THE AREA BUT EVEN EASTERN AREAS WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE DEGREES 
BELOW NORMAL. A FEW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN NW PA BUT 
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. THE NEXT
RIDGE WILL ALREADY BE BUILDING OVERHEAD FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND A
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT SHALLOW BENEATH THE
BUILDING RIDGE...925 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 18C
WHICH SHOULD YIELD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA(MID 60S IN NW PA).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS TOO SPEED UP THE 
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONVERGING ON A 
FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR 
AND THE TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. I SUSPECT 
THAT THE FORECAST IS STILL TOO SLOW AS I KEPT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS 
ON TUESDAY MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF I-71 BUT WE CAN CONTINUE TO 
INCREASE THE POP ON TUESDAY IF THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES. 

TEMPS AT 850 MB ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT ZERO BY WEDNESDAY AND 
KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW 
PA ON WEDNESDAY OTHERWISE DRY AND SEASONABLE AS SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM 
THE WEST ON THURSDAY. THE SPEED IS UNCERTAIN AS THE UPPER FLOW IS 
PROGGED TO BEGIN TO BACK ONCE AGAIN AS AN IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE 
DROPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM SEEMS DESTINED TO 
BRING A CHILLY HALLOWEEN. 

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG
AT INLAND LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. A DISSIPATING FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA TODAY. MOSTLY HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE STRATOCUMULUS BKN035-BKN050 DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. NON-VFR
DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ON THE EAST HALF OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING 
BUT THE GRADIENT IS RATHER LIGHT. A DISSIPATING FRONT OUT WEST WILL 
NOT MAKE IT TO LAKE ERIE TODAY AND THE FLOW WILL REMAIN 
LIGHT...EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY TONIGHT. 

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT 
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ON 
SATURDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH 20 KNOTS OR MORE. THE FLOW 
COULD BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING THE LARGER 
WAVES ONSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN ON SUNDAY BUT 
THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH WIND/WAVES TO CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORY FROM AROUND CLEVELAND EAST ON SUNDAY. THE LAKE SHOULD QUIET 
DOWN BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH CROSSES THE 
LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK






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