Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Cleveland, OH banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KCLE 200115
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
915 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.
A SHORT WAVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL PUSH NORTH INTO 
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE AN INCREASE IN 
LOWER LEVEL MOISURE AND POSSIBLY SOME CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS 
TONIGHT BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...PATCHY CIRRUS 
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS THE FOCUS 
OF THE FORECAST.  THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  BOTH MODELS 
KEEP THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFT 18Z SAT.  
I WILL BRING A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO NW OH LATE SAT.  I 
WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA DRY.  SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY  
WILL BE THE BIG PUSH WITH THE PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES 
CLOSER.  MODEL CAPE VALUES ON 12Z RUN OF THE NAM ARE EXTREMELY HIGH 
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VALUES ABOVE 1500.  THE GFS IS MUCH 
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY.  I AM LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE 
GFS SOLUTION BUT WILL KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE OUT.  SPC HAS AREAS JUST 
TO THE WEST OF THE CLE CWA OUTLOOKED FOR SAT.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS 
MAY CREEP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT I DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE 
WIDESPREAD.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY 
AFTERNOON.  A VIGOROUS 5H SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE AREA 
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER LESS VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT.
DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION 
AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION. I AM CONCERNED WITH THE STRENGTH 
OF THE LIFT FROM THESE SHORT WAVES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN 
THE AFTERNOON.  I WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE 
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO THESE SHORT 
WAVES. I WILL HOLD ON TO A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY 
MORNING OVER NE OH AND NW PA.  I WILL BRING AN END TO THE 
PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY 
BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION DRY. VARIABLE 
AMOUNTS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF 
THE WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES UNDER AN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE. 

AFTER A COOL DAY ON TUESDAY HIGHS WILL RECOVER BACK INTO THE LOWER 
TO MIDDLE 70S FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA HOWEVER STILL SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/MIST HOWEVER SELY/SLY WINDS WILL ALSO NOT COMPLETELY DROP OFF
SO EXPECTING LESS FOG THAN PREVS NIGHTS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE SATURDAY ALTHOUGH BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
EXPECTING MOST PRECIP TO BE AFTER 00Z SO LEFT PRECIP OUT OF TAFS
FOR NOW. STILL...COULD SEE SHOWERS MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SSW AT 12-15KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE
LOWER 20S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
THEN NON-VFR CEILINGS LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT ALLOWING 
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE 
ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE 
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE IN THE 15 TO 20 
KNOT RANGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE OPEN WATERS. WAVES WILL BE LARGEST IN 
THE OPEN WATERS BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM 
ASHTABULA TO RIPLEY TO SEE IF WE CAN BUILD WAVES INTO THE 3 TO 5 
FOOT RANGE. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED EAST. AS THE COLD 
FRONT PASSES SUNDAY MORNING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO 
NEED A SMALL CRAFT FOR ALL LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH 
THE WESTERN BASIN MAY MEET CRITERIA BRIEFLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE 
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY 
NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT THAT SAGS ACROSS 
THE LAKE ON TUESDAY BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
FOLLOW THE WEAK FRONT FROM ONTARIO AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER 
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MULLEN









National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy