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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 010133
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
933 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT OVER LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF 
THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY 
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DEEPEN AND SLOWLY NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST 
OVER THE WEEKEND. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE OHIO 
VALLEY SUNDAY AND TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL 
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR 930 UPDATE...TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS AND WEATHER
SLIGHTLY. 

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
INTERESTING SYNOPTIC AND MESO WEATHER PATTERN. THE SURFACE LOW/COLD 
FRONT OVER NORTHWEST OHIO WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST WITH THE SURFACE WIND 
EVENTUALLY FLIPPING TO NORTHEAST AS THE LOW DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA. 
THIS WILL CREATE AN OCCLUDED TYPE THERMAL PATTERN AS SOMEWHAT WARMER 
AIR IS WRAPPING AROUND FROM THE NORTHEAST. 

THE UPPER LOW WILL PLUNGE SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA JUST BRUSHING
WESTERN OHIO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WOULD BE THE FASTEST WAY TO
GET THE AIR COLD ENOUGH...WITH DEEPER CONVECTION/UPWARD MOTION
COOLING THE COLUMN AND BRINGING DOWN THE COLDER AIR. NOT SURE THIS
CAN HAPPEN VERY FAR EAST AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW SO INITIALLY WE
WILL WATCH FOR A MIX/CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF
NORTHWEST OHIO AND POINTS WEST. TRICK OR TREATIES IN BOWLING GREEN
AND FINDLAY MAY SEE SOME FLAKES....MAY STAY JUST WARM ENOUGH IN
TOLEDO TO STAY RAIN BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. OBVIOUSLY NOT MUCH
ELEVATION TO HELP WITH THE CHANGE OVER UNTIL YOU GET DOWN TO
ABOUT CRAWFORD MARION AND ESPECIALLY MORROW COUNTIES AND IT WILL
TAKE A WHILE TO GET THE COLDER AIR THERE LATER IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION MODEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AN
INCH OR LESS MOST AREAS. THE ACCUMULATION WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED
TO GRASSY SURFACES... AUTOMOBILES... DECKS ETC SINCE I DOUBT THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE WOULD GET BELOW FREEZING ALTHOUGH THE WET BULB
WILL GET CLOSE.

THE DEEPER COLDER AIR DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING SO NOT 
MUCH CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS NE OH/NW PA UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING 
AND THEN PROBABLY IN THE HILLS. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S 
NW OHIO TO THE LOWER/MID 40S NEAR LAKE ERIE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SYNOPTIC PRECIP SHOULD BE GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN ON SATURDAY. 
THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT THE COLD ADVECTION 
ALOFT WILL INCREASE AS THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR BEGINS TO ROTATE 
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AND LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT PRECIP WILL
INCREASE. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL COME DOWN AS SNOW WHILE THE
SPRINKLES MAY STAY LIQUID. THE NORTHEAST WIND WILL BACK TO
NORTH...A FAVORABLE FETCH FOR NORTH CENTRAL OHIO FROM CLEVELAND TO
MANSFIELD...AND EXPECT THE STEADIER PRECIP TO CONTINUE IN THIS
AREA. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE SHOWERY AND THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT
ACROSS FAR NW OHIO. I DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH ACCUMULATION SINCE
THE GROUND IS WARM AND IT IS HARD TO STICK DURING THE DAY THIS
TIME OF YEAR BUT A SLUSHY INCH OR SO COULD ACCUMULATE ON GRASSY
SURFACES DURING HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE
30S WHERE THE PRECIP IS MORE FREQUENT.

THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL SHIFT EAST LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND 
SUNDAY MORNING. DO NOT WANT TO END THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND PRECIP 
THREAT TO QUICKLY AS WE OFTEN DO BUT THE HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD TAPER 
OFF. IT MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY TO GET THE CLOUDS TO SHIFT 
EAST BUT WE SHOULD SEE AN EROSION OF THE CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO 
EAST DURING THE DAY. HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER/MID 30S. SOME SECTIONS 
OF INLAND NW PA MAY HOLD IN THE 30S ON SUNDAY. BACK TO NEAR NORMAL 
ON MONDAY AS THE FLOW COMES AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE 
NEXT COLD FRONT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS BUT ALSO EXPECTING 
AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WILL CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS THINKING WITH AN ACTIVE COLD FRONT 
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY AND BRING A 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. LOOK FOR SOME COOLER 
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AN 
IMPULSE WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME LAKE 
EFFECT MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER NE 
OHIO AND NW PA.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD 
WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE CAN OCCUR 
A FEW LOCATIONS COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S. COOLER WEDNESDAY INTO 
THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER KEEPING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO 
MID 50S. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 30S 
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWERING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS OHIO. 

THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS OVER MI/IN BUT SOME SNOW IS WORKING IT'S
WAY INTO NW OH. THE TOL TAF WILL INITIALIZE WITH SNOW THROUGH 12Z
BEFORE SNOW CHANCES DECREASE. FDY WILL BE NEXT TO TRANSITION
OVER...AND THEN MFD AROUND 06Z. THE REST OF THE TAF SITES
SHOULDN'T GET ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR SNOW UNTIL 12Z OR LATER. SNOW
FROM MFD EAST WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE SATURDAY...LONGER FOR ERI. 

NW WINDS HAVE INCREASED AROUND 15G25KT AT TOL...LOOK FOR FDY AND
MFD TO INCREASE THROUGH 06Z. CLE WILL INCREASE BETWEEN
06-09Z...AND THE OTHER EASTERN TAF SITES AFT 12Z. 

OVERALL LOOKING AT MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
FOR SATURDAY CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY MVFR. 

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MOST LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY NIGHT THEN PERSISTING
OVER NE OH/NW PA ON SUNDAY. RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST CENTRAL LAKE ERIE BASIN WILL DEEPEN AS IT 
MOVES ACROSS OHIO THIS EVENING AND THEN REDEVELOPS ALONG THE EAST 
COAST SATURDAY. WITH STRONGER WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOK FOR OUR GALE WARNING TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO 
SATURDAY FOR MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE. THE CENTRAL 
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE WILL PROBABLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORY AS NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BUILD SOME 
SIGNIFICANT WAVES. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE POSTED 
FOR TONIGHT AND RUN ALL DAY SATURDAY. 

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY 
MORNING THEN DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN 
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN ACTIVE 
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...DJB/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...BC






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