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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 242218
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
618 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW OVER OKLAHOMA WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THEN A COLD FRONT 
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY PUSHED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH 
PRESSURE THAT BUILDS SOUTH INTO LAKE ERIE BY SATURDAY EVENING. A THE 
RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ALLOW LOW 
PRESSURE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA AND STALL FOR THE WHOLE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING EAST INTO
WESTERN OHIO AT THIS TIME. THE ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE NOTHING MORE
THAN SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER. THERE IS A LOT OF
VERY DRY AIR FOR THE SHOWERS TO OVER COME AS IT MOVES EAST INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT TIMING OF LATER
THIS EVENING FOR THE ONSET EVEN THOUGH WE MAY HAVE A FEW SPRINKLES
IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP SLOWLY AFTER
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN NY BY 00Z FRI EVE 
SO EXPECT ONLY NW PA TO HAVE A THREAT FOR SHRA BY 00Z FRI EVE. A 
LITTLE THUNDER MAY OCCUR WITH THE SHRA DUE TO THE STRONG UPPER 
DYNAMICS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WHERE THE AIR MASS WILL HAVE A 
LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY.

WEAK RIDGING MOVES IN FRI NIGHT BUT THE MOISTURE DOES NOT COMPLETELY 
FLUSH OUT AND BY THE END OF THE NIGHT A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TO BE 
AROUND LAKE ERIE. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHRA FOR MAINLY THE 
SECOND HALF OF FRI NIGHT.

THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH THRU THE CWA SAT THEN STALLS NEAR OR JUST 
SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. EXPECTING SCT SHRA TO 
OCCUR SAT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS SE INTO 
THE AREA SAT EVE AND SHOULD BRING ENOUGH DRIER AIR AT LOWER LEVELS 
TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY SAT NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE MARGINAL IN 
THE SW COUNTIES FOR SOME POSSIBLE SPRINKLES...AND ALSO IN THE 
EXTREME NE FOR A FEW LAKE EFFECT SPRINKLES.

AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN SETS UP LATER SUN THRU MON AS THE CUTOFF 
UPPER AND SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS STARTS TO SEEK ITS WAY 
TOWARD OHIO. WILL STAY WITH THE PLAN TO RAMP UP THE THREAT FOR SHRA 
SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT. 

THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SAT AND SUN SHOULD MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL 
BY MON AS WARMER AIR IS PUSHED NORTH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS TUESDAY WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING UPPER 
LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE AREA WITH A SURFACE LOW IN THE IOWA AREA. 
WPS SHOWS THE LOW A BIT FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI. 
OVER THE COURSE THE DAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE 
MODELS KEEP THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST BASICALLY ROTATING IT THROUGH 
ILLINOIS...INDIANA...MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN.  THIS DIFFERS FROM 
PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH BROUGHT THE LOW CENTER TO NRN OHIO/LOWER MI 
REGION. THE NEW MODELS THEREFORE WOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY MILDER 
SOLUTION VS THE LOW BASICALLY OVERHEAD. STILL...IT LOOKS FAIRLY 
CLOUDY AND WET WHICH WILL KEEP A LID ON TEMPS.  FOR NOW WILL 
CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH DECENT 
CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z WITH
MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CONDITIONS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST
AFTER 08-09Z. EXPECT NON VFR INTO KCLE AROUND 12Z. SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...TURNING MORE SOUTH AFTER
12Z. EXCEPTION BEGIN NEAR THE LAKE ERIE SHORE WHERE A LAKE BREEZE
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR INITIALLY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE AT THE MOMENT BUT THE WESTERN BASIN SHOULD 
BE CHOPPY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN THE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY 
FLOW. FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO TO NEAR 
BUFFALO BY EVENING. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE 
LOW SHIFTING WEST FRIDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED 
IN THE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT FOR 
WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS AND RESULTANT WAVES. SATURDAY WINDS 
TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND A TRAILING COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY 
CONTINUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY TURNING 
WINDS NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS...INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS 
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK






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