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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 162357
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
757 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE FA REMAINS CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE THAT MOST OF
THE MODELS ARE TOO QUICK TO CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE NIGHT TONIGHT. WENT MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH HOWEVER MIGHT NOT HAVE GONE
PESSIMISTIC ENOUGH. NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE KEY FOR WHAT WILL HAPPEN
OVERNIGHT. 

IF THE DRIER AIR ALOFT CAN MIX DOWN BEFORE SUNSET THEN CLEARING
WILL TAKE PLACE QUICKER. IF THIS DOES NOT OCCUR BEFORE SUNSET THEN
EXPECT SOME CLOUD COVER TO STICK AROUND THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. CURRENT THOUGHT IS THAT
EXTREME NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL SEE MORE
CLEARING BEFORE SUNSET AND THAT OTHER AREAS WILL TAKE LONGER TO
SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. AS THE CLOUD COVER DOES SLOWLY EXIT
OR DECREASE ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT...WITH THE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EXPECT FOG TO QUICKLY DEVELOP IN THOSE LOCATIONS. 

WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT
WENT WITH PATCHY FOG EVERYWHERE ACROSS THE FA AND PATCHY DENSE FOG
IN THE MORE PRONE LOCATIONS. THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY HOWEVER
TO SEE IF ADDITIONAL FOG WORDING MAY BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSER TO THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT WITH HAVING THE CLOUD COVER STICKING AROUND
LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY. A VERY WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS PRIMARILY SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION. HAVE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM TIME PERIOD.  

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM TIME PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO AROUND 50. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC 
ON FRIDAY MORNING...MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. 
ALONG WITH A SHORT-TERM FLATTENING OF THE MID-LEVEL 
PATTERN...LEADING TO HEIGHT RISES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AS THE EAST 
COAST TROUGHING DISSIPATES...THIS WILL SIGNAL A PATTERN CHANGE 
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...SURFACE WINDS WILL TAKE A 
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT...LEADING TO A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN FOR FRIDAY 
AND SATURDAY. THE REMAINING INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL 
PROVIDE FOR A DRY STARTING POINT...AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THE 
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE 
WINDS TURNING TO THE SSW...AND A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS 
BEGINNING TO GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE AREA. FRIDAY TEMPERATURES 
WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN JUST BELOW NORMAL...BUT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY 
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE WARMER FLOW ON 
SATURDAY. THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST MODEL AGREEMENT IS STRONG.

AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY MORNING...SURFACE 
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. A 
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS LOW...AND WILL MOVE THROUGH 
THE ILN CWA ON SUNDAY. THESE BASIC DETAILS ARE FAIRLY CERTAIN...BUT 
THERE IS MUCH GREATER MODEL SPREAD IN THE SPECIFICS OF HOW THE 
TROUGH AND FRONT ARE BEING DEPICTED. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER 
TROUGH...IN PARTICULAR...SHOWS MARKED DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS 
AND ECMWF (AND EVEN WITHIN THE INDIVIDUAL GFSE MEMBERS). AMONG THE 
FLATTEST SOLUTIONS IS THE 12Z ECMWF...WHICH PIVOTS THE FRONT IN AN 
ORIENTATION THAT WOULD PROVIDE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING OR SHEAR 
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS AMONG THE STRONGEST 
SOLUTIONS...WITH A CLOSED 500MB LOW THAT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY ITS 
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THUS...IT IS NOT SURPRISING THAT TIMING AND 
STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH THE SURFACE FRONT ARE A FORECAST 
CHALLENGE. THOUGH PRECIPITATION IS FAIRLY LIKELY TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY 
FOR THE ILN CWA...POPS HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO 40 PERCENT UNTIL TIMING 
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS BECOMES STRONGER. ALSO UNCERTAIN IS THE 
EVENTUAL MAGNITUDE OF THE FLOW ALOFT AND WARM ADVECTION AT THE 
SURFACE...WHICH WILL CERTAINLY IMPACT WHETHER OR NOT SHEAR AND 
INSTABILITY (RESPECTIVELY) ARE ABLE TO BECOME A CONCERN.

BEHIND THE FRONT (FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK)...A COOLER AND 
DRIER AIR MASS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN WILL MOVE INTO PLACE. THIS LARGE 
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO COVER A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF 
THE MIDWESTERN STATES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AFTER A DAY ON 
SUNDAY THAT IS LIKELY TO FEATURE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT (WITH WARM 
CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA)...THE FIRST PART OF 
THE WEEK WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES FALLING WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO FORM. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION. MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS CLOUD DECK SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND PERHAPS ERODE. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN
LOCATIONS LIKE KCVG AND KLUK WILL HAVE THE SAME POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AS THE OTHER SITES. THE OTHER SITES ARE EXPECTED TO GO MOSTLY
CLEAR SOONER THAN KCVG/KLUK. WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...LINGERING
SHALLOW MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE...AND A SOMEWHAT DAMP GROUND...FOG
FORMATION SEEMS LIKELY. THUS...HAVE BROUGHT IFR/LIFR/VLIFR VSBYS
AND/OR CEILINGS DEPENDING ON WHETHER THE AIRPORT IS MORE FOG PRONE
THAN THE OTHERS (KILN...KLCK AND KLUK ARE THE MOST FOG PRONE).

ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z. A WEAK S/WV IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A
MIX OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BY THEN. 

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY. 

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...HICKMAN






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