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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 292342
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
642 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FA AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
IN DEVELOPING CAA BEHIND THE FRONT...LOWER STRATUS IS OVERSPREADING OUR
AREA ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE KEEPING US NEARLY SATURATED BELOW 2 KM THROUGH 00Z
BEFORE PARTIALLY DRYING OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER REMAINS RIGHT AROUND -10
CELSIUS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY EVENING SO THINK WE WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE A MIX OF DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING.
WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...EXPECT RAIN
SHOWERS TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AND WE COULD EVEN END
UP WITH A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WE START TO GET INTO A FETCH
OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AS A SECONDARY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE AREA. THE BTV SNOW
SQUALL PARAMETER OFF THE NAM IS INDICATING SOME INCREASING
INSTABILITY WORKING DOWN NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA IN
THE 06 TO 12Z TIME FRAME AND THIS COINCIDES WITH A FAVORABLE PV
ANOMALY. AS A RESULT...THINK WE WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY
RUNNING FROM OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH OUR SOUTHEAST. WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF AN
INCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. GOOD CAA
WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH OF A RISE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM NEAR 20 IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 30 IN THE SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. AS WE GET
INTO SOME RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL
BUMP UP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR HIGHS. ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOCUS IN THE IMMEDIATE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
MOVING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY...THEN EAST TOWARD THE 
MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL 
BE PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BRING CATEGORICAL POPS TO THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS 
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SNOW NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WITH SNOW MIXING 
WITH RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AS TEMPERATURES CREEP 
ABOVE FREEZING HERE. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A DECENT 
SNOW PRODUCER...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT STAYS ALL SNOW. WE WILL HAVE TO 
WATCH IN LATER FORECAST MODEL RUNS WHETHER THE LOW BECOMES 
STRONGER...MOVES FARTHER NORTH...OR MAINTAINS A MORE EAST TO WEST 
TRACK. THIS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN/SNOW 
MIXTURE MAY MOVE WHICH WILL CUT INTO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. IN EITHER 
CASE...ONCE COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...ALL 
LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION. BASED ON CURRENT MODEL 
CONSENSUS...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A 6"+ SNOWFALL EVENT NORTH OF 
THE OHIO RIVER WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH (4 INCHES OR LESS AS A 
FIRST FORECAST AMOUNT). PCPN WILL BE TAPERING OFF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO 
MONDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO 
HIGHLIGHT THIS WINTER WEATHER THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT.

FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE 
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM THAT MUCH FROM MONDAY MORNING 
LOWS...RANGING FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTH TO NEAR 20 SOUTH. 
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP MONDAY NIGHT AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR 
EARLY...FOLLOWED BY SOME INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. 
SOME LOCATIONS WILL GO BELOW ZERO WITH SINGLE DIGITS ALONG AND SOUTH 
OF THE OHIO RIVER. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SOME WIND CHILL VALUES 
WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE 10 BELOW TO 20 BELOW ZERO RANGE IN THE 
COLDEST AIR. 

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY 
SIMILAR WITH SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS EXCEPT FOR TUESDAY WHERE THE GFS TRIES 
TO SPREAD ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN PCPN INTO THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH 
THE DRY ECMWF SOLUTION. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE 
BY MID WEEK. SOME WARMING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO COLD VALUES BEHIND IT. THERE WILL BE A 
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO 
DRY WEATHER AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF TAF SITES. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR PUSH OUT THE CEILINGS LEAVING SCATTERED SKY
COVER. SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIP MAY OCCUR AROUND TAF SITES EARLY IN
THE FORECAST...REDUCING VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY. WEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST OVER 20 KNOTS UNTIL SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AND
SUBSIDING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CVG WILL HAVE MAINLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...CONIGLIO






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