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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 201259
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
859 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL LINGER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER BUT COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ARE AFFECTING THE ILN CWA THIS MORNING.
A FAIRLY SOLID BAND OF RAIN HAS BEEN MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. NORTH OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR...SHOWERY PRECIPITATION HAS
BEGUN TO DEVELOP. BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY...AND WILL LIKELY EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS OHIO AND
NORTHEASTERN INDIANA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT REMAINS WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...AND IS NOT FORECAST TO
GET INTO THE ILN CWA UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE...POPS WERE ADJUSTED UP...BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND EXPECTED COVERAGE LATER TODAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE GOTTEN OFF TO A VERY COOL START OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND MAX TEMPS WERE
ADJUSTED DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THESE LOCATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
WEAK H5 DISTURBANCE SWINGING E IN THE FAST FLOW IS COMBINING WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ECHOES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. PCPN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY AS
APPROACHING CDFNT INCREASES LIFT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NRN HALF OF THE FA CLOSER TO THE H5 S/W. CONTINUED LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE N AND LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR S. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO PUSH INTO THE LOWER 60S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...PUSHING THE BETTER
PCPN COVERAGE EWD. ADDITIONAL ENERGY IN THE H5 FLOW DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND CUTOFF OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
TUESDAY. THIS WILL LINGER PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA.
MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING A FETCH OF PCPN OFF WARM LAKE MI...SO
HAVE ALSO ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED/ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FAR
WESTERN FCST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE FLOW
BECOMES MORE DUE NORTHERLY AND THE CHANCES DIMINISH AREA WIDE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW TO TRANSLATE INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC BUILDING INTO THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP ILN/S FA DRY WITH EMBEDDED S/W TO PASS SOUTH
OF THE REGION FRIDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH
SOME MODERATION THROUGH THE WEEK. LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 30S ON WED
AND THURS NIGHTS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FROST FORMATION. HAVE INCLUDED
A MENTION IN THE GRIDS AND HWO PRODUCT.

EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH SOME 
MODERATION ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 60 
NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. 

NORTHERN PORTION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW 
OVER OHIO VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND AND ACTIVE WEATHER TO STAY WELL TO OUR 
NORTHEAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE GREAT 
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL 
NEXT SATURDAY/SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE MID 
60S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO MISS TAF SITES THIS MORNING BUT WILL
ALLOW AS DECK TO CONTINUALLY LOWER AS THE DAY WEARS ON. 8-10KFT
CIGS WILL LOWER TO 2500-4KFT THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH. THIS TROF PASSAGE MAY SPARK
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BUT SHOULD AGAIN BE PRIMARILY VFR VSBY WITH SOME
MVFR CIGS. 

IN THE CAA BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT...A MOIST LOWER LAYER OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL COMBINE WITH THE TURBULENT MIXING TO PRODUCE AN
IFR CIG FOR ALL BUT KCVG/KLUK WHERE THERMAL PROFILES DO NOT APPEAR
TO HAVE AS MUCH TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN THE LOWER LAYERS ABOVE THE
SURFACE. REMAINING TAF SITES WILL SEE A DECENT H9 TEMP DROP AS
WINDS SHIFT NNW. SOME PREVAILING BR COULD EVEN DROP VSBYS ACROSS
MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD. 

A BRIEF PERIOD OF NO CIGS MAY BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THESE LATE
DAY SHOWERS BEFORE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER LEVEL STRATOCU. 

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS






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