Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Wilmington, OH banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KILN 171737
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
137 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH.
TEMPERATURES MAY INCREASE A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS
DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION DUE TO STRONG MARCH SUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOTABLY
COLDER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY FOCUS
FOR THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...WITH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE DEVELOPING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO PLACE...PROVIDING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...AND THUS NO REASON
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATION OF THE AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS.
THUS...THE WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE
GENERALLY SLOW. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
WARMING BY FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY ALSO BE WETTER AND
CLOUDIER.

THE ONLY CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
WILL BE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THE INITIAL SHOT OF MOISTURE WILL RIDE
INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING...PERHAPS A SLIGHT DELAY FROM
WHAT PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED. THE BIGGEST
CONCERN WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS MOISTURE IS THE NORTHWARD
EXTENT...WHICH STILL REMAINS VARIABLE FROM MODEL TO MODEL. IN
GENERAL...THE ECMWF HAS ALLOWED FOR THE GREATEST NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION (COVERING A MUCH WIDER SWATH OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA)
AND THE NAM HAS BEEN FURTHEST TO THE SOUTH (LEAVING CONDITIONS
MAINLY DRY). A GFS SOLUTION IS NOT A BAD COMPROMISE...FOCUSING
PRECIPITATION MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WITH THE
INITIAL BATCH OF PRECIPITATION. THINGS GET SLIGHTLY MORE
COMPLICATED GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE SYSTEM...PIVOTING
THINGS INTO A DIRECTION OF NORTHEASTERLY TRAVEL. AS THIS
OCCURS...THE 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY UNANIMOUS IN ALLOWING
FOR A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ILN
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE WILL TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST FORCING AND
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST...BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE AT LEAST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WITH THIS ACROSS OUR EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY SHOULD PUSH UP INTO THE 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR CEILINGS IN THE
COLUMBUS AREA WILL DECREASE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. THEREAFTER
WILL ONLY SEE SOME HIGH AND PERHAPS MID CLOUDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS 00Z. THERE WILL BE A FURTHER DECREASE IN
WINDS SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...






National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy