000
FXUS61 KILN 232028
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
428 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT MOVG THRU THE AREA IS KICKING OFF AN AREA OF SHRA
ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE FA. AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...EXPECT THE AREA TO
PUSH THROUGH EAST THROUGH THE REGION. DECIDED TO REMOVE THE
THUNDER WITH THE CONVECTION AS THE INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY WEAK. BEHIND
THE FRONT EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A SHARP H5 TROF DIGGING
THROUGH THE LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY COULD PROVIDE ENUF LIFT FOR AN
ISOLATED SHRA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE N...SO BROUGHT BACK A SLIGHT
CHC OF SHOWERS BETWEEN 0Z AND 6Z.

A SWITCH TO NORTHERLY WINDS ALLOW FOR CAA TONIGHT. MIN TEMP
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR 40 (OR EVEN AROUND 38 TO 39) IN THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THERE SHOULD BE TO MUCH WIND AND CLOUDS FOR FROST TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP DOWN INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL BATTLE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT TO
DECIDE HOW MUCH FAIR WEATHER CU WILL DEVELOP. LOOKS LIKE THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE AFTERNOON.

THE FA WILL BE UNDER FULL CONTROL OF THE HIGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
CLEAR SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS. EAST OF COLUMBUS...COULD SEE SOME
FROST DEVELOP...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION IN THE HWO.

BY SATURDAY...THE REGION BEGINS TO FEEL THE AFFECTS A ENERGY
RIDING OVER TOP OF THE H5 RIDGE TO THE WEST. SOME MODELS BRING A
STRIP OF PCPN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE SW PART
OF THE FA. AT LOWER LEVELS HOWEVER THE HIGH IS STILL IN CONTROL
AND THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS DRY. SO DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW.

THE ENERGY DROPS TO THE SE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...LESSENING THE
CHANCE OF PCPN IN THE SW.

TOMORROW WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. AS
MENTIONED BEFORE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL RAPIDLY. EAST OF COLUMBUS TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. ELSEWHERE SHOULD
SEE LOWER 40S. HIGHS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND FOR SATURDAY PUSHING
BACK INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL NOSE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY 
AND KEEP A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRYING SOUTHEAST 
SURFACE WINDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. 

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PREVAIL WITH GENERAL 
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE OHIO VALLEY. GFS IS SHOWING A S/W UNDERCUTTING 
H5 RIDGE AND BRINGING PRECIPATION TO THE REGION MONDAY. THIS APPEARS 
TO BE CONSISTENT FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST BUT THE EUROPEAN IS ALSO 
CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING THIS FEATURE MUCH FURTHER SOUTHWEST AS AN 
ELEVATED CONVERGENT BAND AT THIS TIME.

THE EUROPEAN PERMITS THIS UNDERCUTTING OF THE ESTABLISHED H5 RIDGE 
ON TUESDAY AND IS SHOWING A MORE TRADITIONAL WARM FRONTAL FEATURES 
IN THE OHIO VALLEY...ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE GFS AND CANADIEN MODEL. 
THIS FRONT IS VERY BROAD IN NATURE AND FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AS TO 
IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO HELP FORCE SHOWERS IN A 
SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...UNDERNEATH THE AXIS OF 
THE H5 RIDGE.  

UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS SHOWING A BROADENING OF THE H5 RIDGE AS IT MOVES 
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. AM CONTINUING THE INCREASED 
POPS EXPECTING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE AFTER 
MONDAY BUT INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEK. 

EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMUP EACH DAY...STARTING IN THE UPPER 60S TO 
AROUND 70 SUNDAY...WARMING TO NEAR 80/LOW 80S BY WED...POSSIBLY 
REACHING MID 80S BY THURSDAY. PM LOWS WILL BE COMFORTABLY COOL 
AROUND 50 MON MORNING UNDER A DRY AIRMASS AND THEN WARM PAST THE 
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS TO REACH MID 60S BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY PART
OF THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUT
OUTSIDE OF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS EXPECT CONDITIONS TO STAY VFR. AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES THE CEILINGS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND THERE WILL BE
SOME GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL FOLLOW
SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE INITIAL FRONT. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
VEER FURTHER AND CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 2000 FT. DRIER
AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 06Z WHICH WILL ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO VFR. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH NORTH WINDS
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...