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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 251653
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1153 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THIS AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO IT THIS LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW OBSERVATIONS EARLY HAVE STARTED
AS SNOW...BUT IN SOME SITES SUCH AS THE DAYTON AIRPORT...HAVE
CHANGED BACK TO RAIN. AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS APPEARS TO BE RUNNING
FROM NORTH OF DAYTON AND EXTEND ESE TOWARDS SOUTHWEST FRANKLIN
COUNTY. THIS WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND BECOME MORE W-E
ORIENTED THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR EXPECT SNOW TO
MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES AND ACTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN FOR
A GOOD BIT OF THE REGION THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW THAT IS NORTH
OF THIS CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY NOT CHANGE MUCH BUT COULD BRIEFLY MIX
WITH SLEET OR RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE CORRIDOR I AM HESITANT TO SAY THAT IT WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW
BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE WITH SURFACE TEMPS HOVERING JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. 

WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM I STILL SEE THE WARMER AIR BEING
PULLED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD TO TICKLE THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND CONTINUE
TO MIX RAIN IN THIS EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME SNOW MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. BUT THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF WITH
LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. AFTER THIS...WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH
CLEARING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE
SPREADING IN ABOUT THE TIME LOW CLOUDS START TO CLEAR OUT. A
SHEARED SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES. LEANED
TOWARDS COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOS LOOKED
REASONABLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY
BRINGING A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE
DEPENDENT ON HOW WARM IT GETS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. READINGS WILL
DROP BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT
KILN. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OTHER AREA TAF SITES VFR CONDITIONS
WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD. 

A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL START OUT AS RAIN HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ICE
PELLETS NEAR THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AT KDAY HOWEVER WITH LOW
PROBABILITY AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THE POSSIBLE ICE PELLETS HAVE
DECIDED TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SNOW
WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS WELL. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY. MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ042>046-
     051>056.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST 
     MONDAY FOR OHZ060>065-072.
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ050.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK







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