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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 212117
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
517 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT KEEPING SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH
OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THIS WENT CLOSER TO THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE
OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT HOWEVER
EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP SOME THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH
SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA OVERNIGHT DECIDED NOT TO HAVE PATCHY FROST MENTION IN THE GRIDS
SINCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE
WORKS INTO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER LONGER ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH WINDS OFF OF THE LAKE.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF
QUICKLY AND END UP IN THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA. THIS SET UP IS IDEAL FOR FROST FORMATION AND HAVE ADDED IN
AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE FA AND CONTINUED TO MENTION FROST IN THE
HWO. 

WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF 
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE 
RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE 
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY 
THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE WEAKENING 
AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z MODELS SUGGEST 
IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME IMPACTS ON THE 
WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT 
CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...IT 
STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY IN THE 
EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR 
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED 
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST 
COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES 
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB 
WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN 
THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY 
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS IN 
A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED 
NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND 
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.

AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL 
ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH 
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF 
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.

AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO 
TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO 
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF 
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH 
ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP WITH 
THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL COME INTO 
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY 8 POPS AT 
THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE PIVOTING DOWN ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ROTATING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN LOWER VFR AND MVFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL COVER PCPN THREAT WITH JUST A
VCSH...PRIMARILY AT THE NORTHERN/EASTERN TAF SITES. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS INDIANA IS MORE DIURNAL...BUT IT STILL LOOKS PRETTY SOLID
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND OHIO. THINK
KCVG/KLUK MAY END UP NEAR THE EDGE OF AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING...BUT IN A CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN...WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE MORE MOIST NAM SOLUTION FOR OVERNIGHT AND HANG ON TO A
GOOD DEAL OF PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
CIGS SHOULD THEN SCATTER OUT LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.


.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...JGL






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