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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 280225
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
925 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL
ALLOW FOR A WARM UP OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WITH SNOW FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING IN A
CYCLONIC FLOW...HAVE EXTENDED COVERAGE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT. STILL SOME QUESTION OF HOW
QUICKLY LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS
THAT ANY CLEARING MAY BE BRIEF AS MID CLOUDS WILL BE PUSHING INTO
WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FORECAST LOWS ARE LEANING
TOWARDS THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OCCURRING IN EARNEST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
ONWARDS. A SHORT WAVE DROPPING EAST SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY WILL BRING
MID CLOUDS WITH IT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES FALLING
OUT OF THIS DECK ACROSS THE NORTH. BUT PROBABILITY WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY SATURDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE ALL DEVELOPING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION. CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOKS LOW ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT
SHOULD INCREASE A FAIR AMOUNT HEADING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE DECIDEDLY NON-DIURNAL. EXPECT A SMALL DROP
OFF IN READINGS FRIDAY EVENING...MORE SO IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES
WHERE WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER. THEN STEADY OR PERHAPS SLOWLY
RISING READINGS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME INSOLATION IN THE
MORNING AND STRONG ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
JUMP BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY. IT APPEARS THAT READINGS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM.  MOISTURE WILL 
CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.  EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER 
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 
50S TO LOW 60S ON SUNDAY.  

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY 
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE 
DURING THIS TIME.  COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON 
MONDAY AND THEREFORE EXPECT TO SEE A DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES 
THROUGH THE DAY AND RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW.  THERE ARE SOME 
DIFFERENCES WITH HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH THE 
AREA.  DUE TO SOME RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND 
AT THIS POINT IN TIME.  MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN 
END MONDAY EVENING HOWEVER SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER 
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

THERE ARE QUITE A FEW MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH 
THURSDAY TIME PERIOD.  MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE TO DISAGREE FOR THIS 
TIME PERIOD.  CONTINUED FORECAST THINKING FROM YESTERDAY AND WENT 
CLOSE TO THE ECMWF FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  THIS 
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA.  
GOING WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION COOLER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FOR 
WEDNESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT.  SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR 
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOMEWHAT MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. MAIN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS
APPEARS TO BE HEADED TOWARD CVG AND LUK SO WENT WITH TEMPO GROUPS
TO LOWER VISIBILITIES THERE. 

IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS INDICATED BY MODELS AFTER 12Z AS BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE FINALLY SCATTERS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WEST TO SOUTH AS THE AXIS OF THE HIGH MOVES
THROUGH. VFR WILL PERSIST AT CVG FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...CONIGLIO






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