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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 210000
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
700 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD
TO A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL
ALSO LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT
AND SHOULD BE CENTERED JUST OFF TO OUR WEST BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LINGERING CU/STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS OUR NORTH
TO DISSIPATE THROUGH HS EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
WITH DECREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT...EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME HELP FROM THE LINGERING SNOW COVER.
EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO
THE MID TEENS SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY
AS THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD. DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH
TO LOW AND MIDDLE 30S SOUTH.

INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS....MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME LIGHT
QPF WILL SNEAK INTO AT LEAST OUR WESTERN AREAS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...SHIFTING ACROSS OUR NORTH THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
BIG QUESTION WILL BE SURFACE TEMPS AS WE WILL LIKELY DROP OFF
QUICKLY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY EVENING...AND THEN SLOWLY
RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT GIVEN INCREASING CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING
WAA. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE AT PCPN ONSET...SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE BELOW FREEZING. WITH THE WARM
LAYER ALOFT QUICKLY INCREASING ABOVE 3 DEGREES CELSIUS...THE
POSSIBILITY WILL EXIST FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
PUSH ABOVE FREEZING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANY REMAINING PCPN
ACROSS THE NORTH FALLING AS RAIN SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM OF THE FORECAST WILL 
REMAIN FAIRLY AMPLIFIED...WITH A RETURN OF THE FAMILIAR MID-LEVEL 
TROUGHING ACROSS COVERING A LARGE PORTION OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE 
COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THE AXIS OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN 
WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY...PROVIDING FOR A PERIOD OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH 
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS THE STORM TRACK OVER THE REGION REMAINS 
BASED ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL CHANGE BY LATER ON 
MONDAY...AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...PUTTING 
TEMPERATURES BACK ON THE COLDER SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ONCE 
AGAIN.

MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY IS 
STRONG...THOUGH THE 12Z SUITE HAS ALLOWED FOR A SLIGHT SLOWING IN 
TIMING. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NNE FROM THE MIDDLE 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AS A SOUTHERN STREAM 
SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS ROUGHLY THE SAME TRAJECTORY. A SLOWER NORTHERN 
STREAM WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BEHIND THIS 
FEATURE...SETTLING OVER THE GREAT LAKES A DAY OR SO LATER. A SOLID 
BAND OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE 
INTO THE ILN CWA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION 
AMOUNTS ARE HEALTHY BUT SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY NEAR OR UNDER AN 
INCH...AND TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO WARM FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AT 
ONSET...AND TOO COOL FOR INSTABILITY AND THUNDER (EVEN ELEVATED). 
CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST AND THIS WILL BE ABLE TO BE 
INCREASED TO 100 PERCENT ONCE THE TIMING IS LOCKED ON FROM RUN TO 
RUN.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM ADVECTION AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE 
DEEPENS...TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY HAVE BEEN RAISED 
BY A COUPLE DEGREES.

CHANCES FOR SPOTTY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH 
ANOTHER POTENT COLD FRONT CROSSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE 
DAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET 
WARM...WITH 60S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER...THE 
FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES NON-DIURNALLY AS IT MOVES EAST...WITH 
DRY AIR BEHIND IT PUTTING AN END TO CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL 
PRECIPITATION. GFS/ECMWF PROJECTIONS LOOK GUSTY (20-30 KNOTS) BEHIND 
THE FRONT...EVEN THOUGH THE DIRECTION OF THE FLOW ONLY CHANGES 
SLIGHTLY FROM SSW TO WSW.

A WEAK WAVE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD BRING SOME 
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT THERE 
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT RUN-TO-RUN DISCONTINUITY WITH THIS SYSTEM. POPS 
HAVE BEEN KEPT TO SLIGHT CHANCE. WHAT APPEARS FAIRLY CERTAIN IS THAT 
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED WILL REMAIN BELOW 
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN...VFR PREVAILS. SKIES HAVE BECOME
MAINLY CLEAR AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST WHILE STAYING UNDER 10 KNOTS. INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INVADE CVG AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...CONIGLIO






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