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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 011744
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
144 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY. WITH HEATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP WITH BETTER COVERAGE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
FORECAST HIGHS NEAR A MOS CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH SUBTLE SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH IT WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST DURING THE PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED INVERTED
TROUGH AT THE SURFACE WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN MOVE
EAST AS WELL BY SUNDAY.

EXPECT SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. WITH HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ON SATURDAY SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN WITH COVERAGE GREATER THAN FRIDAY.
APPEARS THAT ACTIVITY MAY PASS EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY WITH MUCH OF THIS EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING. STILL
HELD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SUNDAY IN THE
EASTERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE TROUGH. BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE DAY. MOS SEEMS TO BE REASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART
WITH TEMPERATURES. USED A BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT ANY DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD KEEPING THE REGION DRY. A SHORT WAVE DROPPING IN WEAK
NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME STORMS TO PUSH TOWARDS
WEST CENTRAL OHIO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN INDICATED A
MORE ENERGETIC AND DEEPER TROUGH IN THE EAST WHICH ALLOWS A COLD
FRONT TO DRIVE THROUGH THE REGION MID WEEK. EVEN THOUGH THESE TWO
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT HAVE STAYED WITH FLATTER GFS/GEFS
MEAN WHICH MAINTAINS BETTER CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT A FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO HAVE
SOME STORMS MOVE OFF THE BOUNDARY AND POSSIBLY AFFECT NORTHERN
COUNTIES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GFS SOLUTION WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE INVERTED TROF WILL PROPAGATE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL ROTATE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. 

FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...TRYING TO PINPOINT SUBTLE
CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES AND WEAK FORCING WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
GO WITH ANY TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS ISSUANCE. SO HAVE EITHER EMPLOYED
VCTS OR VCSH...ALLOWING SHORT TERM TRENDS (RADAR AND CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS) DICTATE ANY NECESSARY AMENDMENTS. GIVEN THAT
THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...HAVE KEPT POTENTIAL
MIST/FOG IN THE MVFR...LOCAL...IFR RANGE. 

ON SATURDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA...ALONG
WITH WEAK SURFACE TROF...AND DAYTIME HEATING...WE SHOULD SEE THE
GREATEST COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE INTRODUCED
SOME PREDOMINATE LIGHT SHOWERS BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z ALONG WITH
VCTS/CB DESCRIPTORS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY DROP INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. 

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HICKMAN






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