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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 011501
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1001 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND PASS OFF TO
THE EAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND
QUICKLY MOVE OFF MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN UPDATE IS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MIXED PRECIPIATION OVER THE
SOUTH THAT WILL BE COMING TO AN END AS THE WARMER TEMPERATURES
CHANGE IT TO PLAIN RAIN IN MOST LOCATIONS. NORTHERN CWA INCLUDING
I-70 CORRIDOR WILL SEE SNOW BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE SPORADIC AND
COULD POSSIBLY SEE A BRIEF MIX EAST OF ROUTE 22 BETWEEN
WILMINGTON AND LANCASTER. 

A FEW SNOW BURSTS WILL QUICKLY PUT DOWN A HALF INCH TO AN INCH BUT
MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REALIZED.
NORTHWEST OF A DAYTON-DELAWARE LINE...MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND DROP ANOTHER INCH OR SO IN THE LATE DAY.
THIS AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND BRING A QUICK HALF INCH OF SNOW
TO THE COLUMBUS METRO AREA EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE IT IS ALL
SAID AND DONE. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. OVERRUNNING FROM THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM MAY SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES BEFORE
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD TUESDAY
MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE IN DRIVING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WHILE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS...IT APPEARS LESS
LIKELY THAT HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUBSTANTIALLY WHICH WILL LEAD TO SNOW MELT
AND ADD TO RUNOFF. SO THERE REMAINS CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL
FLOODING TOWARDS MIDWEEK.

WHILE THE COLD FRONT IS NOW FORECAST TO BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...THERE REMAINS THE CHANCE OF HAVING PRECIPITATION
SPREAD BACK WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT AS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SO AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY. WITH COLDER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...IT APPEARS THAT THIS COULD BE SNOW OR A SNOW/RAIN MIX. 

MOS GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ENDED
UP USING A MOS BLEND FOR TUESDAY TO RESOLVE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS CONCERNING HOW FAR TEMPERATURES WILL RISE IN A WARM SECTOR
WITH EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL BE A SHORT-LIVED TIME WITH
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BLENDED GUIDANCE WAS USED
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS BUT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY WORK INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY BUT AT THIS POINT THERE SEEMS TO BE A LACK OF MOISTURE
WITH IT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF LATE THIS EVENING. KDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL SNOW
FOR THE EVENT. A MIX OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND SNOW IS
EXPECTED AT KCVG...KLUK...AND KILN THIS MORNING. KCVG AND KLUK
ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN FOR AWHILE LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHILE KILN WILL TRANSITION TO
A RAIN AND SNOW MIX. THESE TAF SITES WILL THEN CHANGE BACK OVER TO
SNOW LATER TODAY. KCMH AND KLCK ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MIX OF
SLEET AND SNOW THIS MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO A RAIN
AND SNOW MIX THIS AFTERNOON. THESE TAF SITES WILL ALSO CHANGE BACK
TO SNOW LATER TODAY. VSBYS AND CIGS WILL BE REDUCED TODAY. VSBYS
WILL RANGE FROM GENERALLY THE MVFR TO LIFR CATEGORIES ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE PRECIPITATION. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MVFR TO
IFR RANGE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY INTO MONDAY MORNING. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN AND
SNOW.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR 
     OHZ054>056-060>062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-
     034-035-042>046-051>053.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR 
     OHZ077-078.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     OHZ063>065-070>072-074.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR 
     KYZ089>093.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR 
     INZ058-059.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR 
     INZ073>075-080.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     INZ066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK






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