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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 231025
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
625 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. AFTER A FOGGY START TODAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL INTERACT WITH A SURFACE FRONT...PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING INCREASING HEAT
AND A DECREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED... 
IN THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...LIGHT WINDS AND
PARTIAL CLEARING HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD FOG.
VSBYS AT MANY LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED AND THE FOG HAS BECOME DENSE.
THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 10 AM.

PREVIOUS...
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO AMPLIFY TODAY.
WITH THIS RIDGE SHARPENING UP...SFC BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER THRU THE 
WESTERN PORTION OF ILN/S FA. A GRADIENT OF INSTBY IS EXPECTED WITH 
MODERATE INSTBY EXPECTED IN THE WEST AND SOUTH CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CHC POPS ACRS THIS FAVORED 
AREA AND TREND POPS DOWN TO SLIGHT CHC IN THE NE.  

HIGH TODAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NORTHEAST TO NEAR 90 EXTREME 
SW. THE HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE SW COMBINED WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN 
THE LOWER 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES IN THE MID/UPR 90S. WILL 
CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS HEAT OVER THE FAR SW IN THE HWO PRODUCT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING THIS EVENING WITH THE 
BEST COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THESE STORMS WILL DROP SE 
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. EXPECT THIS PCPN
TO PUSH SOUTH OF ILNS FA AND WEAKEN TONIGHT TONIGHT. IN MUGGY 
AIRMASS LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S NE TO THE 
LOWER 70S SW. 

UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING 
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS 
RIDGE DO NOT EXPECT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WILL LIMIT POPS TO OVER A 
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY 
EVENING HOURS. 

HIGHS TO WARM UP A LTL AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 SW.
HEAT INDICES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S IN THE FAR SW..SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAT FOR SUNDAY AFTN IN HWO.

ANY STORM THAT DEVELOP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND EXPECT TO 
DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING. MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH 
SUNDAY NIGHTS LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.


INSTABILITY GRADIENT WILL EXIST MONDAY WITH LOW END MODERATE INSTBY 
DEVELOPING INTO THE SOUTH AND WEST DURG THE AFTN. WILL LIMIT POPS TO 
CHANCE CATEGORY IN THE FAR SOUTH BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED 
ACRS THE WEST. VERY WARM HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
WILL CONTINUE HWO MENTION OF HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S ACRS FAR 
SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SITUATED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST 
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES 
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY SO WILL NUDGE TEMPS UP A BIT 
WARMER THAN WHAT IS SUGGESTED BY GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN 
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT 
INSTABILITIES TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER WITH THE
HIGH OVERHEAD AND LIMITED FORCING...THINK ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK 
AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE OHIO 
VALLEY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK BUT THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO 
EXACTLY HOW FAST THIS WILL HAPPEN. THE 12Z GFS REMAINS THE MOST 
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT...PUSHING IT THROUGH FASTER AND FARTHER 
SOUTH THAN BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CMC. HAVE GENERALLY TAKEN A 
BLEND OF THE MODELS...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING POPS FROM THE 
NORTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY AND ON INTO THURSDAY...THEN LINGERING SOME 
LOWER END POPS INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE 
SLOWER ECMWF/CMC. TEMPERATURES WILL OF COURSE BE DEPENDENT ON THE 
FRONTAL TIMING WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY MOVING IN BEHIND 
THE FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEATHER MAP FEATURES AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE WEST AND A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TONIGHT AS FG AND BR
FORM IN A HUMID AIRMASS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY FOLLOW THE DISSIPATING FG AND BR
AFTER 12Z. VFR SHOULD RETURN BY 17Z. DAY CVG AND LUK MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN A DISTURBANCE IN THE MEAN
UPPER FLOW ROUNDS THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...CONIGLIO







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