Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Wilmington, OH banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KILN 260217
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1017 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING A
RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BRING A WARMING TREND INTO
SATURDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES AND AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...LEADING TO OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HAVE REMOVED THE REST OF THE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN TONIGHT IN
FAVOR OF AN EXITING SPRINKLE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES WERE CONTINUED AS FORECAST AND SKIES
WILL TRY TO CLEAR OUT LATE OVERNIGHT. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION DURING
THE DAY...A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAY.

PATH OF S/WV AND SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERALLY KEEP THE
MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR SHOWER AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE NRN FORECAST AREA AND POINTS NORTH DURING THE DAY. INCREASING 
MLCAPE VALUES >2000 J/KG IN THE NW FCST AREA WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER
DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL ACROSS THE WEST INTO LATE AFTERNOON. 

AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL APPROACH 70 TO LOW
70S...WITH EVEN GREATER LL MOISTURE SURGE POSSIBLE. AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/WV AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR REACHING 40-50+
KTS NEAR/AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN THIS
TIMEFRAME...AND THEN COMBINED WITH PW VALUES OVER 2 INCHES AND
STRONG LLJ DEVELOPING AND DIVING SE THROUGH SRN IN...SW OHIO AND NRN 
KY WILL BRING A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. PW 
VALUES APPROACH 2SD ABOVE NORMAL IN STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT 
THE NOSE OF LLJ. INTRODUCED HEAVY RAIN WORDING INTO THE FORECAST BUT 
PREMATURE FOR FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE ATTM WITH SOME TIMING AND 
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES IN MODEL RUNS.

NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH LLJ AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...WITH GFS
LESS SO THOUGH STILL SETTING A SCENARIO FOR PROLONGED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE LONG TERM. EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOVING THROUGH THE FA. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THE FA
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THE HIGHEST CHANCE
FOR THESE THREATS SUNDAY MORNING ARE ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA.

THE TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON 
ADDITION THUNDERSTORMS AND THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE AFTERNOON 
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY.  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY 
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FA ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE AND ALONG 
A COLD FRONT.  DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL AGAIN BE 
POSSIBLE.  IN ADDITION AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AND A HAIL THREAT 
ALSO EXISTS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY EVENING.

COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL 
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY.  EXPECT A CLOUDY AND 
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.  
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY EVENING.  COOL NORTHERLY FLOW 
WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND 
TUESDAY TO BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE 
SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY HOWEVER STILL BELOW 
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BRING OFF AND 
ON CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE BLOWOFF FROM THE UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AND TAF SITES FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH BKN SKIES AOA 10KFT. THIS SHOULD CLEAR UP
FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT BUT THE RH PATTERN IS A BIT GRUNGED
THROUGH THE COLUMN DEPENDENT ON WHICH MODEL AND WHICH POINT IS
LOOKED AT. TRIED TO ANNOTATE SOME LOWER CLOUDS TOMORROW THROUGH
THE DAY UNDERNEATH SOME HIGHER CIRRUS...SIMILAR TO TODAY. SSW
WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION AND THE MODELS ARE NOT
SUPPORTIVE OF ANY SHOWERS HITTING THE REGION UNTIL AFTER 18Z. IN
THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST...A SLIGHTLY CLEARER PICTURE
IS BEING PAINTED OVER CENTRAL OHIO WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE BUT MORE FAVORED TOWARDS CMH/LCK. 

H5 PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE WLY AND EMBEDDED H5 VORT MAXIMA WILL
BE TRAVERSING THE REGION...AIDING TO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW NIGHT AIDING IN
THE EXPANSION OF ANY ONGOING OR DEVELOPMENT OF INITIAL ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.

CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST IS LOW STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FUTURE
MODEL RUNS WILL BRING THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS INTO FOCUS FOR
TIMING AND A HIGHER PROBABILITY FORECAST. HAVE PRIMARILY GONE VFR
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BROUGHT IN A LATE MVFR CIG/VSBY IN
TS LATE IN THE 30 HOUR CVG TAF. 

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...FRANKS/SITES






National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy