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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 171745
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1245 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDY SKIES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO A FEW FLURRIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY -DZ/-FZDZ/-SN HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
MORNING AS SHALLOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE UP TO 850 MB IS CONTINUE TO EXIT EAST. LOW STRATOCUMULUS
DECK STRETCHES BACK TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE SHALLOW
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...THERE DOES
NOT APPEAR MUCH HOPE OF SEEING ANY CLOUD EROSION IN OUR AREA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
WARM MUCH FROM CURRENT MID MORNING READINGS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO PERHAPS THE MID/UPPER 30S FAR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BASED ON THE UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED CYCLONIC
FLOW...SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FROM THE MUCH MORE CLOUDY NAM
SOLUTION THAT KEEPS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THE LOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT
OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FORCING IS PRETTY WEAK BY THE TIME
IT MAKES IT INTO OUR AREA AND WITH ONLY SOME LIMITED
MOISTURE...THINK WE MAY JUST SEE A FEW FLURRIES WITH THIS.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SPRINKLES TO MIX IN
WITH ANY FLURRY ACTIVITY. EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH...INCREASING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM 
PERIOD.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY 
NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY 
NIGHT.  PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW 
ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA.  PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START 
OFF AS SNOW ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE FA HOWEVER SOME RAIN IS 
EXPECTED TO MIX IN DURING THE DAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO LIGHT 
SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK BACK INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND 
MONDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA FOR 
TUESDAY.  MODELS WERE IN SOMEWHAT DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE 
HOWEVER THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION IS NOW SLOWER AND MORE ROBUST.  DID 
NOT WANT TO JUMP ON THIS NEW SOLUTION QUITE YET AND WENT WITH MORE 
OF A MODEL BLEND FOR TUESDAY.  A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED 
HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA PRECIPITATION 
LOOKS TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT 
INTO WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL BUILD
INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT. DESPITE THIS HIGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A PRETTY SOLID STRATOCUMULUS DECK BETWEEN 1500-2500
FEET. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE AS TO WHETHER THESE CLOUDS WILL
THIN AND/OR ERODE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE GONE PESSIMISTIC AT
THIS POINT WHICH IS TO KEEP MVFR CEILINGS GOING THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. ON THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WHILE THE FEATURE WEAKENS AS IT AFFECTS OUR AREA. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE A FEW
FLURRIES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HICKMAN






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