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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 260951
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
451 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST. BACK EDGE OF SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM WAS
ABOUT HALF WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THIS TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AND PULL OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH MID MORNING. LOOKS LIKE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS BEFORE ACTIVITY
ENDS. HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS
WHERE SNOW HAS ALREADY CEASED. 

CLOUD FORECAST IS TRICKY WITH MODELS SHOWING VERY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING ON THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. THEN MID CLOUDS FROM
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL BE ENCROACHING ON WESTERN COUNTIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CAUTIOUSLY ALLOWED FOR A PERIOD OF PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES. 

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL SOME INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. ONLY A MODEST REBOUND IN READINGS AT BEST FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. FORECAST HIGHS ENDED UP BETWEEN MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START NOSING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHEARED
SHORT WAVE AND ITS WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
FURTHER WEST FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SO DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO
BRING ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE THAT WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSES BY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH MOS LOOKING REASONABLE FOR LOWS AND HIGHS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. 

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
00Z GUIDANCE ONLY INDICATING MINOR DIFFERENCES AT THIS POINT. AS
PRECIPITATION SPREADS INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IT
APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN...THIS WILL CHANGE TO RAIN
HEADING INTO THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS A BIT FASTER ALOFT THAN
AT THE SURFACE. THERE WILL BE A CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR GETS DRAWN IN AGAIN
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY
EARLY SATURDAY. 00Z MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
THUS HAVE OPTED TO USE THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH WOULD BRING A LOW
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SNOW
FOR THE WEEKEND. BUT CLEARLY CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AT THIS
POINT. 

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THE EARLY DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL BE PRESENT
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES TO START THE TAF PERIOD. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF FROM THE WESTERN TAF SITES TO THE EASTERN TAF SITES.
CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAYTIME MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY HOWEVER SOME BRIEF IFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT. VSBYS WITH THE SNOW WILL RANGE FROM IFR TO MVFR. WINDS
WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. 

HAVE CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR AT KCVG...KLUK...AND KDAY BY MID
DAY ON MONDAY. KILN IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS LATER
IN THE DAY ON MONDAY. KCMH AND KLCK ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. 

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR 
     OHZ056-065-073-074.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ045-
     046-052>055-062>064-072.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK






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