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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 222038
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
438 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD START CLEARING ACROSS THE WESTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. BUT BASED ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FORECASTS FROM THE MODELS THERE ARE STILL SUBSTANTIAL QUESTIONS
WHETHER/HOW FAST THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BASED ON LATEST DATA EXPECT
CLEARING TO BE MUCH SLOWER IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES ALTHOUGH DO
EXPECT THAT TO HAPPEN BY DAYBREAK. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS STAYING A BIT WARMER IN THE EAST. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS...CONDITIONS
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR FROST ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...TEMPERATURES
COULD GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FROST THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THERE WILL BE TOO MANY CLOUDS.

A SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THERE WILL ONLY BE A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. SO THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
IS QUITE LOW ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LULL BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. 

LEANED TOWARDS WARMER GFS MOS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS AND COOLER NAM
MOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS. MOS BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE FOR OTHER
PERIODS. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY.  THERE IS NOT A 
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE LEFT THE FORECAST 
DRY.  HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH 
THE REGION.  

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR 
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS 
THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW 
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.  THIS 
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE LOW 
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S.  

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT 
SYSTEM WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES.  THERE 
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH THE SYSTEM 
MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  HAVE PRECIPITATION 
CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF 
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS 
THE FA.  COOLER AIR WILL USHER INTO THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE 
COLD FRONT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ALLOWING FOR THE MVFR STRATUS
DECK TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS STILL
TRYING TO CLEAR THINGS OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING BUT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THINKING THIS IS
LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SUGGESTING THAT
THE CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO BECOME MORE DIURNAL ACROSS AT LEAST
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AND THOSE AREAS SHOULD HAVE A
BETTER SHOT AT SCATTERING OUT. WILL THEREFORE ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES AS WE GET TOWARD
SUNSET. FARTHER EAST IS MORE PROBLEMATIC AS LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY
ACTUALLY STAY MORE CYCLONIC THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A
RESULT...WILL TREND PESSIMISTIC AND HANG ON TO SOME MVFR CIGS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT KCMH/KLCK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>044-051>053-060>062-070>072-077>079.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>099.
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ050-058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL






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