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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 250229
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1029 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE REGION INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LARGE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SRN ROCKIES
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. MAINLY HIGH 
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED WITH THE PASSAGE OF INITIAL S/W THIS
EVENING. EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MID/LOWER CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. HAVE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED
SKY CONDITION ALLOWING FOR A LTL MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP OFF TO LOWS LKLY BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z AND THEN STEADY OUT
WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS. EXPECT THESE LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NW TO THE LOWER 40S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOMORROW.
THIS WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORCING AND MOISTURE STILL SEEM LIMITED. SO
WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE...THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
RAIN REMAINS QUITE LOW. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN AND THEN START TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST HIGHS SHADED TOWARDS COOLER NAM MOS WHILE LOWS
STAYED NEAR MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM.  SOUTHERLY FLOW AND 
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW FOR 
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE FA.  TEMPERATURES ARE 
ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE 
FA MONDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES.  

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND BRINGS A COLD 
FRONT THROUGH THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT.  YESTERDAY THE MODELS WERE IN 
GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS IN VERY CLOSE 
AGREEMENT TO WHAT THE MODELS WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY AND THIS LONG 
TERM FORECAST IS BASED HEAVILY ON THE 12Z ECMWF.  

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT DURING 
THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES.  
WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE FED INTO THE FA WITH ANOTHER DAY OF 
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S EXPECTED.  

GOING WITH THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE 
INTO THE FA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS ON 
TUESDAY.  BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TUESDAY EVENING INTO 
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER TUESDAY NIGHT DURING 
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  BY THE DAYTIME MORNING HOURS EXPECT 
PRECIPITATION TO HAVE EXITED MOST OF THE FA.  THERE IS SOME 
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF 
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY 
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60.  HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY 
AND THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.  AN 
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE 
WITH THIS FEATURE.  

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF VARIATION IN THE MODELS FOR FRIDAY.  
CONTINUED TO GO CLOSE TO THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION.  THIS SOLUTION IS 
MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO DROP SE THRU THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
OFFERING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITED
EXPECT MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CIGS THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THIS SFC COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT AND PUSH INTO OUR AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SOME LOWER VFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT VFR CIGS BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FEET
DEVELOPING LATE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. ALTHOUGH VALLEY FOG HAS BEEN
PREVALENT THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS...EXPECT THAT CLOUDS WILL
MITIGATE ITS DEVELOPMENT. 

A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER IS PSBL SATURDAY MAINLY ACRS THE NRN TAF SITES...
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN FCST. EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES SAT AFTN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KTS. 


.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...AR






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