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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 200558
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
158 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.
THESE DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW FOR OFF AND ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
OVER INDIANA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT. A FEW
STORMS MAY STILL REACH STRONG TO SEVERE LIMITS HOWEVER BELIEVE
THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES FOR THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY WILL ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA CLOSER TO THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING.
A DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA WITH NW FLOW ALOFT
LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS SW
PORTIONS OF THE FA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE 
PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT THE ILN AREA ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER 
RIDGE. IN THIS REGIME...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND THE 
AIRMASS WILL BE HUMID. THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS 
LEADING TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

FOR THURSDAY...A RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE 
IS SHOWN TO ENTER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. COOLER AIR ALOFT 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL HELP TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES 
AND PRODUCE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION BY THURSDAY 
EVENING. 

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A VERY SIMILAR UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL 
PRODUCE GOOD CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY IN 
EASTERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO SHORT WAVE FORCING. THE UPPER RIDGE MAY 
SAG SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING A BETTER CHANCE FOR 
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

MOS GUIDANCE AND 1000-850 MB THICKNESS FORECASTS POINT TO THE 
WARMEST WEATHER WE WILL EXPERIENCE THIS SUMMER. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED 
TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S...WITH HIGHER READINGS TENDING TO 
BE IN SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE SUNSHINE SHOULD BE MORE PREVALENT 
CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING. TSRA WITH HEAVY RAIN AND WIND WILL AFFECT
THE KCVG...KLUK AND KILN TERMINALS BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z. KDAY IS ON
THE NRN PERIPHERY OF CONVECTION. HAVE GONE WITH VCTS AT KCMH/KLCK
BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. LOW LEVEL FORCING MAY WEAKEN BY THE TIME
STORMS GET THIS FAR EAST BUT WILL AMEND THESE TAFS IF NECESSARY.
WITH RECENT RAIN AND CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE WEST TOWARD
SUNRISE...MODELS SUGGEST THAT STRATUS AND SOME FOG MAY FORM. BEST
CHANCE IS WHERE IT WILL RAIN THE MOST AND HAVE PLACED SOME
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KCVG...KLUK AND KILN.

STORMS WILL EXIT EAST OF KCMH/KLCK BY 12Z WHILE FOG/STRATUS
DISSIPATE THROUGH 15Z. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS OUR ERN
REGION BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP NEAR KCMH/KLCK BEFORE IT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SO HAVE LEFT THE TERMINALS DRY. 
REGION SHOULD BE MAINLY CONVECTION FREE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
FRONT LAYS OUT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. 

MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY TONIGHT. STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO PIVOT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. THERE COULD BE SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION AFTER 06Z...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST AS A WEAK
LOW LEVEL JET TRIES TO KICK IN. HAVE PLACED A VCTS/CB AT THE KCVG
30 HOUR TERMINAL FOR NOW. 



OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN






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