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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 150238
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1038 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO MONDAY. AFTER A COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN
LATE MONDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE
DRY WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ILN FA WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS BY OVERNIGHT...BUT
THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL SUNRISE. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS...LOWS
WILL FALL INTO THE 40S. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST MONDAY MORNING TAKING WITH IT
THE VERY DRY AIRMASS. FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE WITH ITS
ENERGY MOST EVIDENT NEAR LAKE ERIE. THE SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH A
WEAK EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE POSITION OF THE SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE AND FORCING IS SHOWN TO AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN
LOCATIONS. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FAR NORTHWEST...DECREASING TO
CHANCE FROM DAYTON TO COLUMBUS...AND DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. WITH ONLY A MINOR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY INDICATED FOR NORTHERN LOCATIONS...KEPT THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST.

SYSTEM WILL BE TRAVELING EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR RETURNS FROM THE WEST...ENDING ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING. CLEAR SKIES ARE
ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT UNDER THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
SINKING AIR.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS ON MONDAY MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S WILL
SLIP A BIT TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S TUESDAY IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG RIDGE 
OVER THE ROCKIES AND MEAN TROF OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AT MID 
WEEK. THIS PLACES THE OHIO VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH SFC 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL OFFER COOL TEMPERATURES
 AND DRY WEATHER. EXPECT WEDNESDAYS HIGHS TO BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES 
BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S 
SOUTH.   

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WASH OUT. BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN 
ORIGIN TO BUILD SE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.
DRY AND COOL WEATHER TO CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN FROM THE 
UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. 

MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY WITH THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH 
PRESSURE TRACKING INTO NEW ENGLAND. A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL 
DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF RE-TREATING SFC HIGH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR 
A SLIGHT MODIFICATION OF TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY FROM THE 
LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH. 

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROF 
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL US. WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY ON 
SATURDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM UP. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 
70S NORTH TO AROUND 80 SOUTH. 

PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF TO TRANSLATE EAST WITH ASSOCIATED SFC 
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. WILL INTRODUCE 
CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHWEST AND ACRS THE 
ENTIRE FA SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR WITH MAYBE
SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS LATE. HAVE PLACED SOME LIFR CONDITIONS AT
KLUK FOR RIVER FOG BASED ON PERSISTENCE. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF HERE
BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. 

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE EAST ON MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL DIG EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
HAVE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD
ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST THREAT FOR
APPRECIABLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL STAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE TAF
SITES MONDAY NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE HEADS EAST AND THE FRONT
SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. 

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN






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