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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 290533
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
133 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. RADAR IS INDICATING A FEW LIGHT RETURNS IN THIS AREA WHICH
THE HRRR ALSO PICKED UP ON. SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FORECAST LOWS LOOK
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH ALL MODELS KEEPING THE UPR LOW OVER THE ST JOHNS BAY AREA
WITH TROUGH DOMINATING THE GT LAKES...HAVE CONTINUED DIURNAL CU
AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S. SFC
FLOW BACKS TO LIGHT WESTERLY BY OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
NOT QUITE AS COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT STILL SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW
NORMAL. HAVE GENERALLY WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN MOS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
A H5 LOW...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY
KICKS OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND ROTATE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO 
THURSDAY. FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER 
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND THE SRN STREAM H5 FLOW RUNS THRU THE DEEP 
SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT FEEL 
THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY. 

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER 
THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPENS AND SHARPENS THE TROF OVER THE FA. THE GFS 
AND ECMWF HAVE SWAPPED SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF NOW 
LINGERS THE H5 TROF DEEPER AND LONGER THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN 
A LITTLE MORE PCPN PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT 
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL 
CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY 
AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROFS LIFTS E.

BY MONDAY...THE S/W TROF HAS LIFTED NE OF THE REGION...SO LEFT 
MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE 
WEEK...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S 
ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE 
HIGHS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT EITHER SIDE OF 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SOME SC ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR
THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT DOES
LOOK LIKE SOME OF THE VFR SC ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO IS TRYING TO FILL IN A LITTLE. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS SO WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CLOUDS AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID MORNING. AS WE GET SOME DAYTIME
HEATING...WE SHOULD START TO CU UP THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW
DIURNAL SHOWERS BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. CU SHOULD SCT BACK OUT
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...JGL







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