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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 310923
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
523 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION ON STRONG
NORTH WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN COLD...WINDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY.
THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW THIS EVENING AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO
ALL SNOW IN MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF
LESS THAN AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS IN SOME
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE OBSERVED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THE ENTIRE AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
AND A MEAN TROF OVER THE EASTERN US. DIGGING S/W EVIDENT ON WV SATL
IMGRY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS S/W TO DROP SE INTO THE MEAN TROF 
POSITION TODAY WITH ALL NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS CLOSING OFF H5 LOW
OVER INDIANA BY 00Z SATURDAY. SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO WESTERN
INDIANA TO SWEEP EAST ACRS ILN/S FA THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTN AS
FORCING INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH LLJ. WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL TODAY. IN
STRONG CAA PTN WITH CLOUD COVER...EXPECT NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRACE WITH EARLY HIGHS AND THEN TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO READINGS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE LOWER/MID 40S SE BY EARLY
EVENING. WITH NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH...
WIND CHILL READINGS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S BY
EVENING. HAVE ISSUED AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING THESE COLD...WINDY
CONDITIONS FOR THOSE THAT WILL BE OUT THIS EVENING.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS SIMILAR WITH CLOSED H5 LOW OVER INDIANA THIS 
EVENING DIGGING SOUTH THRU THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. COLDER AIR
WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION ON STRONG NORTH WINDS. CRITICAL THICKNESSES
DROP COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX WITH SNOW AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
THRU THE EVENING. SOLNS ARE HOLDING ONTO PRECIP LONGER AND WITH
COLD AIR...HAVE TRENDED FCST TO ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. AN ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH...MAINLY
ON GRASSY AREAS ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO AND NRN KY.
SNOW WILL HAVE IMPACT ON PLANTS...SO HAVE UPGRADED FREEZE WATCH TO FREEZE
WARNING AND EXPANDED IT FURTHER EAST TO INCORPORATE THE REGION WHERE SOME
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND TEMPS WILL LKLY FALL TO 32 OR BELOW
OVERNIGHT.

PCPN TO TO END FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. CLOUDS AND CAA WILL KEEP 
SATURDAYS HIGHS OVER 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM 40 NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SE. 

MID/UPR LEVEL TROF AXIS TO SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT PLACING THE
OHIO VALLEY IN NW FLOW. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SE BECOMING 
CENTERED OVER INDIANA BY SUNDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING 
EVERYWHERE. HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FREEZE WATCH FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE FA.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION SUNDAY. AFTER A
COLD START TO DAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 40S. 


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AXIS OF THE HIGH PASSES EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP. READINGS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE 7-8 DEG WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT...AND THE
REAL WARM UP IS ON MONDAY WHERE HIGHS WILL BE 14-15 DEG WARMER THAN
SUNDAY DUE TO THE DRAMATIC CHANGE IN AIRMASS.

FLOW ON MONDAY BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND A MORE MUTED BUT CONTINUED 
WARM UP WILL BE PRESENT IN THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE 
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRAPE A BOUNDARY FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND 
TO WEST CENTRAL TX. RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TUESDAY 
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE COMING IN LINE WITH THE 
SLOWER SOLUTION PROVIDED BY YESTERDAYS EUROPEAN MODEL. AS THE LARGE 
SCALE FORCING MOVES NORTHEAST...THE SYSTEM WILL SHEAR OUT AND 
RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT 
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. 

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR A DRIER THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY 
FRIDAY...BUT GFS HAS A SURFACE LOW UNDERNEATH THE L/W TROUGH DIGGING 
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. EUROPEAN HAS A SIMILAR UPPER TROUGH FURTHER 
EAST AND INDICATES IT AS THE DRIVING FORCE FOR MOVEMENT OF THE 
SURFACE FRONT...IE MUCH EARLIER WITH NO SURFACE LOW AND/OR PRECIP AT 
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY ONWARD WILL RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL 
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS ARE VFR TO START. THAT WILL CHANGE AS AN UPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE MVFR BY
LATE MORNING AS RAIN SHOWERS BECOME WIDESPREAD IN A MOIST WESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ENTRENCHED OVER
THE REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
GUSTS CLOSE TO 30 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND FREEZING
WILL CHANGE ANY RESIDUAL PRECIP TO SNOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
EVENING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING 
     FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
     077>082-088.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>045-051>054-060>063-070>072-077>081.
KY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING 
     FOR KYZ089>100.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING 
     FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ050-058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...CONIGLIO






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