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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 010843
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
443 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL  NEAR THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE
WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER INDIANAPOLIS WILL LINGER THERE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY PROGRESS TOWARDS RICHMOND
INDIANA BY NIGHTFALL. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP A
VARYING MOISTURE PROFILE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. 

TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE SOME HEADWAY AS IT MOVES
TOWARDS CHILLICOTHE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...WITH A SIMILAR CHANCE
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND MORESO DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. H5 RIDGING WILL TAKE ITS PLACE IN THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE BUILDING IN THE CENTRAL
U.S. ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL STILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

A WEAK RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS TIME. 

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...A LITTLE WARMER
ON LOW TEMPERATURES WITH MINIMA IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO BUILD A 
LTL EAST AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FROM THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT 
WEEKEND. 

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM 
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL ACT 
TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF 
ENHANCED FORCING. FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND... CAN 
NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD CONVECTION BUT DUE TO LIMITED 
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY EXCEPT 
FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS FRI AFTN.

S/W MOVING THRU THE NRN TIER OF STATES PUSHES INTO GREAT LAKES BY 
NEXT TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE NRN PORTION OF THE 
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE WITH SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OHIO 
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AT THIS TIME FRAME WITH TIMING 
DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLNS. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS MONDAY 
AFTN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIP NEXT 
TUESDAY.  

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE  
UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90...ESPECIALLY OVER THE 
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AFTER YESTERDAYS CONVECTION...BUT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. WITH NEAR CALM WINDS...EXPECT FOG TO
AFFECT THE TAFS EARLY THIS MORNING. WENT WITH AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS
AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TYPICAL
LOCATIONS.

TAFS REMAIN UNDER THE SAME REGIME AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO EXPECT
BKN CU TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION.
FEEL THAT THE CHANCE FOR A STORM TO HIT A TAF IS LOW ENUF TO LEAVE
OUT OF THE TAFS.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIES OUT SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND THE CIGS SHOULD
GO SCATTERED.


OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES



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