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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 162316
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
716 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RETURN FLOW AROUND A DEPARTING HIGH AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES BROUGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS TO THE AREA THURSDAY AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH/ CENTRAL UNITED STATES
TODAY ALLOWING FOR WARM RETURN FLOW TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. SOME
OF THE CIRRUS HAS BEEN THICK THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS HELPED TO
HOLD BACK TEMPERATURES A BIT IN SOME LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA BY 6 AM TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE THE FRONT THROUGH KDAY AROUND 7/8 AM AND
KCVG BY 8/9 AM TOMORROW MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS. 850 TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
QUICKLY DROP DURING THE DAY TOMORROW (GFS ~ 0 DEGREES C). THIS CAA
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY STABLE DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW.

WEDNESDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD WHICH
SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOME CIRRUS WHICH MIGHT HINDER RADIATIONAL COOLING A BIT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO WARM UP AND
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FOR BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW 850 TEMPERATURES AROUND -5 C.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA. THIS DISTURBANCE
STEMS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
BAJA OF CALIFORNIA. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND FINALLY BE PICKED UP IN THE MAIN FLOW. THE
REMNANTS OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL THEN HEAD OFF TO THE EAST AND
APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE COMING A LITTLE MORE IN LINE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM 
SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY. THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR A LITTLE SLOWER 
APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM AND PERHAPS A LITTLE FARTHER SHIFT TO THE 
SOUTH FOR THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF. THE 12Z CMC HAS ALSO TRENDED 
FARTHER SOUTH BUT REMAINS FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS/ECMWF. WILL 
CONTINUE WITH SOME HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH FOR 
THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAPERING BACK TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE UP INTO 
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR FA. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING...SUPPOSE 
A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AT PCPN ONSET...BUT 
WILL LEAVE PTYPE ALL RAIN AT THIS POINT. PCPN WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE 
EAST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY 
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST MAY LINGER SOME PCPN ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN 
FA INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT 
ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF PCPN BUT GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 
TO UPPER 40S. 

WE WILL TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE 
GREAT LAKES WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA 
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST FORCING AND 
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH AND 
EAST...BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE AT LEAST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE 
POPS WITH THIS ACROSS OUR EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGHS ON 
SATURDAY SHOULD PUSH UP INTO THE 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COOL HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK 
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS TAF SITES ON A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.

A COLD FRONT DROPPING FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING 
WITH THIS FRONT AND ONLY EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IN THE
VICINITY OF CMH AND LCK.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH EARLY
TUESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 26 KNOTS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR






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