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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 292355
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
755 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK
ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW MODERATION IS LIKELY EACH DAY AS A LARGE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES REMAINS THE PRIMARY
FEATURE DRIVING THE DAILY WEATHER. IN FACT...THE TROUGH WILL
RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WHICH EVENTUALLY WILL LEAD TO INCREASED WARMTH AND HUMIDITY BY THE
END OF WEEK...BUT BY JULY STANDARDS IT WILL STILL FEEL QUITE
COMFORTABLE THROUGH FRIDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH
THE TROUGH WILL BRING THREATS FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...TONIGHT...TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF
RAINFALL. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE
WEEKEND...THEY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
500MB NEGATIVE ANOMALY /TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW LATE JULY
CLIMO/ REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN THE FORM
OF AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP/STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE -4 SIGMA
HEIGHT ANOMALY IS ACTUALLY CENTERED IN THE CAROLINAS /WITH RESPECT
TO CLIMATOLOGY/ AND WITH 850MB TEMPS SUBSEQUENTLY 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO ACROSS OHIO/KY...IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR TUESDAY JULY 29TH ARE BEING THREATENED. A
RENEWED BURST OF MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION OWING TO A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DRIVING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND SCT-BKN LINE
OF CONVECTION ACROSS SRN LOWER MI/NRN INDIANA AT THE PRESENT /20Z/.

THIS IS TIED VERY STRONGLY TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE DESPITE SOME
MEAGER MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND HI-RES GUIDANCE /29.00Z SSEO/ IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH PAST
00Z AS IT MOVES INTO SERN IND/WRN OH. UNTIL THEN...IT SHOULD
MAINTAIN INTO AT MINIMUM WEST CENTRAL OHIO BY 23Z. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPE TO 500 J/KG JUST TO THE WEST WHERE
ACTIVITY IS LOCATED AND WEAK DEEP SHEAR /20KTS/ THUS THINK ACTIVITY IS
JUST ABOUT AT MAXIMUM OR WILL BE SO IN NEXT HOUR AS IT CROSSES ERN
IND BEFORE IT STARTS TO CYCLE DOWN THROUGH THE EARLY/MID EVENING.

FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. DAILY RECORDS FOR THE 30TH /MIN TEMP/
SHOULD BE SAFE AT ALL CLIMATE SITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DECENT JET STREAK /SEEN NICELY ON 2.0 PV SURFACE/ DIGGING DOWN THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEEP ERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
TRANSLATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS ALREADY
RESPONSIBLE FOR STORMS IN NRN MN/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IS
ENHANCING/STEEPENING THE DEEPER LAYER LAPSE RATES AMIDST
INCREASING MOISTURE. THINK ARRIVAL OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS
JET STREAK OVER THE AREA AROUND LATE MORNING/AFTN WILL INITIATE A
MORE /RELATIVELY/ CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...AGAIN
WITH DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS /29.12Z NAM AND GFS/
SUGGEST MLCAPE SHOULD RANGE FROM 300-700 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A RATHER STEEP BUT RELATIVELY MOIST LAPSE RATE - SHOULD BE
EFFICIENT FOR GENERATING SHRA/STORMS GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. CONSIDERED WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES IN PEAK HEATING /PER
29.09Z SREF PROBABILITIES/ BUT DIALED BACK A LITTLE BASED ON
29.12Z HIRES-ARW WRF WHICH IS MORE REFINED AND TRACKS SEVERAL
SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH INSTBY...COLD MID
LEVEL TEMPS /-16C AT 500MB AND LOW WBZ HEIGHTS/ AND WHAT SHOULD BE
SOME MODEST DIABATIC HEATING BEFORE CUMULUS ERUPTS...SOME SMALL
HAIL CERTAINLY SEEMS LIKELY IN THE STRONGER CORES WED AFTN. DEEPER
SHEAR STILL WEAK /20-25KTS OF UNIDIRECTIONAL NWLY FLOW/...SO WHILE
A ROGUE SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE THINK INSTBY WILL LIMIT THIS
POTENTIAL. IT DOES BEAR MENTIONING THAT 29.12Z NAM SOUNDINGS WERE
BY FAR THE MOST UNSTABLE OF ANY PREVIOUS RUN OR ANY SREF/GFS
MEMBER OR RUN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO IF THAT BEARS TRUE /MLCAPE
IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG OVER NRN CWA/ WE MAY HAVE A FEW MORE STRONG
CORES THAN CURRENTLY THINKING. BUT AS OF NOW THROWING OUT THAT
MORE UNSTABLE THINKING BASED ON LACK OF AGREEMENT IN OTHER DATA.
DID INCREASE RAIN CHANCES QUITE A BIT...AND MAY NEED FURTHER
ENHANCEMENT IN THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE JET INFLUENCE AND DIURNAL
INSTBY WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

ACTIVITY SHOULD DWINDLE QUICKLY AS AVAILABLE INSTBY IS TURNED OVER
AND PBL DECOUPLES WED EVENING. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IN THE 50S...BUT
WARMER OVER PREVIOUS NIGHTS. THURSDAY...A SIMILAR STORY...AS
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS RETROGRADES SLOWLY WESTWARD AS ATLANTIC
RIDGING BULGES NORTH AND INCREASES. THIS SHOULD KEEP MINIMAL
INSTBY /THOUGH MUCH LOWER THAN WED/ AND POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO COMBINE FOR
SMALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY
RISE WITHIN THE TROUGH...ADDING A FEW DEGREES ONTO EACH DAYS HIGH
TEMP FOR WED AND THURSDAY...GETTING US BACK TOWARD 80 DEGREES BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE 
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE DAY ON 
SATURDAY.  BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND WITH THIS TROUGH IN PLACE.  THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO 
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR DAY CONDITIONS.  A WEAK 
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY 
ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME MIST AT KLUK TOWARDS 12Z. CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING SHOWERS WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THEN EXPECT FEW IF ANY CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WITH
HEATING ON WEDNESDAY BROKEN CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
AND POTENTIALLY AFFECT TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY FROM KDAY TO
KCMH/KLCK. BUT PROBABILITY THAT FAR OUT IN TIME PRECLUDES MENTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...






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