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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 180149
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
849 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER 
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY 
CLOUDY SKIES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO A FEW 
FLURRIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK IN OFFERING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE  
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED WEST OF
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH WILL NUDGE INTO THE AREA BY
MORNING...WITH COOL WNW FLOW ON ITS NORTH SIDE ALLOWING FOR A
RELATIVE MIN IN SURFACE/925MB TEMPS THAT WILL STRETCH FROM CENTRAL
OHIO TO MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLING OFF A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED...SO A SLIGHT DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO THE MIN TEMPERATURE GRID.

AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER AS
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PROGRESS. HOWEVER...THE DIRECTION OF FLOW WILL
NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR THE ADVECTION OF THE MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THE 00Z KILN SOUNDING INDICATED
SATURATION BETWEEN 925MB AND 875MB...CAPTURED WELL ON THE NAM12
AND RAP13...BUT VERY POORLY ON THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE EROSION OF
THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS HAS SLOWED OR
STOPPED...AND THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN VERY
CLOUDY. HOWEVER...SOME SLIGHT WARMING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT
900MB AFTER 06Z...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO LEAD TO SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS CLOSER TO MORNING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST >
ELONGATED MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO SHIFT OFF INTO NEW 
ENGLAND. A FEW ISOLD LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE LOW LEVEL CAA WILL
COME TO AN END EARLY. MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY NW AHEAD OF AN 
UPSTREAM S/W RIDGE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO NOSE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT IN REGION OF H5 CONFLUENCE. 12Z ILN SOUNDING SHOWS LOW 
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION AROUND 850 MB. GFS IS 
AGGRESSIVE WITH CLEARING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NAM AND RAP SOLNS KEEP
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WILL ALLOW A FEW BREAKS OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
BUT LEAN TOWARD THE NAM/RAP SOLN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 
NORMAL WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL S/W TO RIPPLE QUICKLY EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE IS DAMPENING
AND CROSSING OVER THE SFC RIDGE. FORCING IS VERY WEAK AND IN THE
MID LEVELS. A FLURRY OR SPRINKLE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FROM A
MID DECK. FLURRIES/SPRINKLES ALREADY IN THE FORECAST...SO WILL
CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR 30S SOUTH.

IN WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME...SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. A FEW
FLURRIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING BUT WILL COME TO AN
END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE S/W. AS THE HIGH BUILD NOSES IN
EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH. 

EXPECT TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL 
MOISTURE LATE IN THE DAY. FRIDAYS HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 40 SOUTH. 

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WILL KEEP FCST DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AS CONSENSUS 
DOES NOT BRING MOISTURE IN UNTIL SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN AS LOW 
PRESSURE TRAVELS NEAR THE GULF COAST. THE LOW HAS TRENDED FARTHER TO 
THE SOUTH SO CUT BACK ON POPS AND PRECIP AMOUNTS. HIGH PRESSURE AND 
A COOL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. LIGHT PRECIP WILL 
BE POSSIBLE MONDAY EXTENDING FROM A TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. 

WE MAY BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
ON TUESDAY. HAVE LESS THAN AVERAGE AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL 
DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL 
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING THROUGH 
OHIO TO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW MAY FEATURE A VERY 
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING ITS DEEP CENTER...PRODUCING 
STRONG WINDS. COPIOUS MOISTURE FEEDING FROM THE TROPICS AND FROM THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN COULD ADVECT AROUND THE LOW. CURRENT TEMPERATURE 
FORECAST ALLOWS RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CHANGING TO SNOW LATER 
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE LOW. 

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART. 
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S SATURDAY...THEN A 
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER NEUTRAL TO WEAK 
WARM ADVECTION. READINGS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT 
ON THE POSITION OF THE ANTICIPATED STRONG LOW. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD 
OF THE LOW COULD BRING HIGHS UP INTO THE MID 40S ON TUESDAY...OR 
EVEN HIGHER IF THE WARMER MEX GUIDANCE VERIFIES. HIGHS COULD SLIP TO 
AROUND 40 ON WEDNESDAY IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUD DECK IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THESE CLOUDS ARE
GENERALLY LOCATED BETWEEN 1200 AND 2200 FEET ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN HEIGHT IS EXPECTED...THOUGH A SLIGHT
LIFTING IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW. THIS CLOUD DECK HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS
OF EROSION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT WHILE IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST COULD WORK INTO THE CINCINNATI AREA
OVERNIGHT...IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THIS EROSION WILL SLOW OR STOP
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WNW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...AND REMAIN
UNDER 10 KNOTS TOMORROW. A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
AFTER 18Z...WITH NO EXPECTED IMPACTS TO AVIATION.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS






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