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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 220243
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1043 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND REMAIN
IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEK. COOLER AIR THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE
WEEK WITH BE REPLACED WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO PIVOT EAST
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. SECONDARY SFC COLD FRONT DROPPING SE THRU 
NRN OHIO. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY AFFECT CENTRAL OHIO AS THIS FEATURE
MOVES THRU THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE JUST MENTIONED A CHANCE OF A
SPRINKLE IN THE NE ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PCPN. BAND OF SC CLOUDS
SPREADING SE IN THE LOW LEVEL CAA. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...
THICKEST OVER THE NE. NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST INTO THE
MID 20 KT RANGE AT TIMES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 10 KTS.

HAVE CONTD WITH LOW TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE...RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THRU PERIOD. SOME CU/STRATOCU IN THE
COOLER AIR FOR MONDAY. COOLEST AIR OVERHEAD MONDAY WITH TEMPS
NOT GETTING OUT OF 60S. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT
FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME UPPER 30S IN TYPICAL COOL LOCATIONS.
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY TUESDAY AS ATMOSPHERE WARMS FROM
MONDAY. MIGHT BE A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC WITH WARMING BUT NOT UNCOMMON
TO GET 30 DEGREE RISE THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOW TEMPS A BIT BELOW
GUIDANCE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE LONG TERM 
PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME MOISTURE POSSIBLY TRYING TO 
WORK UP FROM THE SOUTH HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH RIDGING 
OVERHEAD...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. AS THE AIRMASS SLOWLY 
MODIFIES...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE 
WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TO AFFECT
THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS SHUD BE VFR GENERALLY BETWEEN
3500 AND 5000 FEET. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. A SPRINKLE COULD AFFECT KCMH AND KLCK EARLY BUT
HAVE OMITTED ANY MENTION SINCE PROBABILITY IS LOW AND ANY AFFECTS
WOULD BE INSIGNIFICANT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY 
PROVIDING CLEARING SKIES AND CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PADGETT
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...HATZOS/PADGETT
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR






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