Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Wilmington, OH banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KILN 010558
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
158 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BEHIND IT ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN EXIT TO THE EAST. WARM
AND MOIST AIR WILL RETURN UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE
IN THE WEEK OR ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SKIRT THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
WELL INTO THE NIGHT. STILL SOME INDICATION THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP TOWARDS DAYBREAK IN THE TRI-STATE. SATELLITE SHOWS
SOME PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS. EXPECT THAT TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS STILL ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS EARLY ON MONDAY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
FORCING FOCUSES MORE ON THE PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS WELL WEST
OF THE REGION. A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER COULD LET TEMPERATURES BUMP
UP TO THE UPPER 80S...BUT MID 80S SEEMED MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE
EARLY THREAT FOR RAIN AND ASSOCIATED LEFTOVER CLOUDS. 

GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS THAT WILL
AFFECT THE OHIO VALLEY LATE MON NIGHT AND MORE SO TUESDAY. LOWS MON
NIGHT WILL REMAIN AROUND 70 WHILE A GOOD 4-8 DEGREE DROP IS
EXPECTED IN THE BRIEF COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUES NIGHT. 

HIGHS TUES WILL WARM UP QUICKLY AND THEN DROP INTO THE 70S ONCE
RAIN BEGINS. SOUTHEAST CWA COULD SEE MID TO UPPER 80S WHILE A
BRIEF RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST. 

THIS NEXT SYSTEM ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN LAST
NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING. FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
UNIFORMLY SOUTHWEST AND A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
LIKELY SET UP ALONG OR NORTHWEST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR...THEN
SPREAD EASTWARD WITH MUCH LESS COHESION DURING THE DAY AND SEE A
MARKED DECREASE IN ACTIVITY EVERYWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 12Z ON WEDNESDAY...STRONG MODEL CLUSTERING OF A BROAD/FLAT
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS...AND QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CONUS...WHICH COULD BE
INFERRED AS THE BASAL PORTION OF A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH BETWEEN
RIDGING OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND CNTL ATLANTIC. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT FROM TUESDAY WILL HAVE SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND
DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. MAINTAINING A DRY FCST WED BUT NOT WITHOUT SOME CONCERN IN
NRN KY/SERN IND OF A DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORM OR TWO. APPEARS PWAT
MAY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED DISSIPATED
FRONTAL ZONE AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTBY TO PROMOTE AN UPDRAFT
OR TWO AS TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE 80S AND DWPTS REMAIN IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S IN FAR SOUTH/WEST. WE/LL NEED TO WATCH THIS. VERY
LITTLE/NO SYNOPTIC FORCING EVIDENT ATTM TO WARRANT A MENTIONABLE
RAIN CHANCE.

MORE ROBUST HEIGHT RISES IN THE OH VALLEY ON THURSDAY AS ENERGY 
FALLS INTO THE NWRN CONUS AND A STRETCHED OUT POSITIVE TILT TROUGH 
BECOMES APPARENT FROM THE PAC NW INTO CNTL CANADA. AS RIBBON OF 
HIGHER PWAT TO OUR SOUTH/WEST RETURNS NORTHWARD AS WELL AND BEGINS 
TO BE IMPINGED ON BY A LITTLE STRONGER SWLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW. 
THUS...HAVE 20-35% RAIN CHANCES DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE 
SOUTH/WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURS AND CONT INTO THURS 
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AGAIN...NOT A GREAT DEAL OF SYNOPTIC FORCING 
HERE...BUT AREA GETTING GRAZED BY ERN FRINGE OF MORE APPRECIABLE 
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO AREAS TO OUR WEST. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME SCT 
STORMS...OR A ROGUE MCS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING INTO 
IND/OH THURS/THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY IN THIS PATTERN. MESOSCALE DETAILS 
LACKING IN THE COARSE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC FCSTS AT THIS 
POINT.  DO FEEL COMFORTABLE IN GETTING DAYTIME MAX TEMPS BACK UP 
INTO THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS THURS/FRI WITH DWPTS REMAINING WELL 
INTO THE 60S. WILL FEEL A LITTLE UNCOMFORTABLE FOR EARLY SEPT BUT 
NOT AT ALL UNCOMMON.  MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY WED/THU/FRI...BUT AS 
WE'VE SEEN JUST ABOUT ALL OF AUGUST...IT/S SELDOM WE GET BY WITHOUT 
A FEW STORMS SOMEWHERE AT PEAK HEATING IN THESE PATTERNS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...FINALLY SOME APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS ATTEMPT TO 
BEAT DOWN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS THE NRN TIER FLOW BECOMES MORE 
PROGRESSIVE. AM HESITANT TO BELIEVE IT WILL HAPPEN AS QUICKLY AS 
DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE IT HAPPENING...SO HAVE ERRED WARMER ON 
SATURDAY TEMPS AHEAD OF DECENT COLD FRONT SHIFTING THRU GREAT LAKES. 
HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY/SAT EVE GIVEN ABOVE 
NORMAL PWAT AND WHAT SEEMS TO BE GOOD FORCING/FRONTAL CONVERGENCE 
SHIFTING THROUGH. FOR SUNDAY...WILL LINGER A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN 
THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING...BUT IF PATTERN SLOWS DOWN EVEN A LITTLE 
THE FRONT MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN OUR SOUTH.  AND LOOKING BEYOND 
DAY 7...JUST NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PUSH WHEN IT 
SEEMS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE /IN TIME/ WILL BUILD BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT 
WEEK /DAY 8 OR 9/ SO ANY RESPITE FROM MUGGY/WARM TEMPS MAY BE 
SHORT-LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EFFECTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REALIZED WITH STRATUS DECK BUILDING
INTO MUCH OF AREA. SUFFICIENT LL MIXING SO THAT CURRENTLY NOT AN
EXPECTATION OF ANYTHING BELOW MVFR BR...THOUGH PERIODIC IFR FG
HERE AT KILN THE EXCEPTION.

IFR CIGS TO LINGER INTO THE 14Z TIMEFRAME WITH POSSIBLE SHRA
LIFTING NORTH FROM KY IN THE 12-15Z PERIOD. EXPECTING SCT VFR
CLOUDS BY MID DAY...WITH VFR BKN WITH APPROACH OF PRE FRONTAL 
CONVECTION TOWARD END OF TAF PERIOD. INTRODUCED VCSH TOWARD
06Z...WITH EXPECTATION OF TSRA LATER. 

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...JDR






National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy