000
FXUS61 KILN 251059
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
659 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
FOR MOST OF THIS WEEKEND PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES.
THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION BY MEMORIAL DAY...WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
NATIONS MID SECTION. THIS PLACES THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN...TO REMAIN ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES. SKIES WILL START OUT MAINLY CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH
RATHER CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN MID 30S NE TO THE LOWER 40S SW. WILL
CONTINUE FROST ADVISORY ACRS PORTION OF THE NE THRU 9 AM.

S/W TO ROUND THE UPSTREAM RIDGE AND AND THEN DIVE SE LATE THIS
AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH WAA WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
DEVELOPING LATE INTO THE SW COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE DRY FCST TODAY
WITH MORE FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE STAYING TO OUR SW. EXPECT
TODAYS HIGHS TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 60S NE TO THE MID/UPR 60S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
S/W ROUNDING UPSTREAM MID LEVEL RIDGE TO DIVE SE THRU LOWER OHIO
VALLEY THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH WAA WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACRS THE SW. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 40 NE TO THE UPPER 40S SW WHERE CLOUDS WILL
BE THICKEST.

WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS INTO THE FAR SW SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE 
NEXT DISTURBANCE. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE MOST OF THE DAY DRY AND 
ONLY CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWER ACRS THE FAR SW LATE 
IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST.

NEXT DISTURBANCE TO DROP SE ACRS OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. 
NUMERICAL MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE. ECMWF HAS
BEEN MOST CONSISTENT TAKING MCS INTO OHIO AHEAD OF WARM FRONT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD A DRIER SOLN AND NAM
TAKES THIS COMPLEX THRU ILNS NW AHD OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT ON
MONDAY. SREF MEAN ALLOWS PRECIP CHANCES TO INCREASE ACRS THE
ENTIRE FA MONDAY WITH THE BEST THREAT ACRS THE WEST. WILL TREND
FCST TOWARD A BLENDED SOLN WEIGHTED TOWARD THE SREF MEAN/ECMWF WITH
POPS INCREASING EARLY ON MONDAY BUT WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE
CATEGORY AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
PIVOT THRU THE NW MONDAY AHD OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY RANGING FROM THE
UPR 60S NW TO THE MID/UPR 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIFT NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. SHOWERS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FEATURE
WILL PREVAIL BUT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIDE VARIATION ON WHEN
THESE START.

ON TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-15 DEG WARMER THAN MONDAY AS 
FLOW TURNS SOUTH AND WARMER AIR OF A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL NATURE GETS 
PULLED IN. WITH THE WARMER AIR IS HIGHER DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL 
NATURALLY BUMP NIGHTTIME LOWS SIGNIFICANTLY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
OFFSHORE AND A MEAN BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE 
COUNTRY WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 
60S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. 

ASIDE FROM RAIN WITH THE FROPA EARLY IN THE FORECAST...THINGS SHOULD 
REMAIN DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL BRING VFR TO TAF SITES. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
IN TODAY ON A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY UNDER
10 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST...SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT AHEAD
OF A DISTURBANCE AND DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. AS CLOUDS NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THICKEN AND LOWER BUT REMAIN IN THE VFR
RANGE...A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF DAY LUK AND CVG
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ046-056-064-
     065-073-074-082.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...CONIGLIO