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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 241043
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
643 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. 
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE LOCATED ACRS THE REGION THIS
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THIS FEATURE AND THE TWO WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE...AND WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE
WAS USED FOR HIGHS WHICH SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TANDEM DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS
EVENING. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
A MIX OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S EAST TO
THE UPPER 40S WEST. 

FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
LONG WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PUSH AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION. SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE MUCH FASTER WITH NEXT
PIECE OF ENERGY TO AFFECT THE REGION. HAVE ALLOWED FOR PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT. IT
LOOKS LIKE PCPN WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY. WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 70S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS STATED IN THE SHORT TERM...MODELS ARE FASTER WITH UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH ARE NOW EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. HAVE SPED UP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH POPS REMAINING IN
THE LIKELY CATEGORY. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TUESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AS PCPN SAGS SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE CLOUD AND PCPN DEPENDENT
BUT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S WEST TO THE MID 70S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS HAS NOT BEEN ENOUGH TO TOTALLY
KEEP FOG AWAY FROM THE AIRPORTS THIS MORNING. WHILE MVFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...KLUK HAS DEVELOPED LIFR CONDITIONS...WHICH
WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
DEPART THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH LOWER MVFR CLOUDS
(3000-6000 FEET) EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER THE AIRPORTS BY
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS IN THIS RANGE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE TAFS WILL INDICATE THAT
VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP BY SATURDAY MORNING.

LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
GENERALLY REMAINING UNDER 10 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN/NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS






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