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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 282041
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
341 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES AVERAGING
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION AT LEAST AT THE ONSET IN SOME
LOCATIONS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS SHOULD TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM LATE THU AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER INTO THE START
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INITIALLY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE THAT
WILL BEGIN TO DEPART THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING 
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE STEADY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MIN TEMPERATURES
AROUND MIDNIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY DECOUPLED VALLEYS
IN EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE
IS ENOUGH CONCERN FOR SOME OF THIS TO REACHING THE GROUND TOWARD
DAWN THAT A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS PLANNED FOR THE NORTHERN
TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES...THOUGH MOST OF THIS SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

IN THE SW PART OF THE AREA...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ALREADY BE
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING TO START THE PERIOD AND THE PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY JUST BEGIN AS RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIME OF ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION AS THE GFS
SATURATES THIS AREA A BIT QUICKER AND THE TOP DOWN APPROACH WOULD
SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIX AT ONSET THERE AS WELL.

THE CHANCES FOR A MIX AT ONSET ARE BETTER FURTHER TO THE NORTH
AND EAST AS THE INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS WILL BE ABLE TO WET BULB AND
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME...BUT THIS PRECIPITATION WOULD BE VERY LIGHT. IN THIS
AREA...THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS WHERE
TEMPERATURES COULD BE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION
MOVES INTO THE AREA. DUE TO THIS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE COLD AND INITIALLY FROZEN OR SNOW
COVERED GROUND IN PLACE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEASTERN
PART OF THE AREA DUE TO THE RECENT COLDER WEATHER. ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT REACHES THE GROUND BEFORE MID MORNING IN THE FAR NORTH AND
EAST COULD LEAD TO SOME IMPACTS OF SLICK OR ICY SPOTS ON UNTREATED
OR SECONDARY ROADS...BRIDGES...OVERPASSES AND WALKWAYS DURING THE
MORNING...SO A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN
TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES TO INCLUDE THE COLUMBUS METRO AREA. ANY
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...BUT STILL A POTENTIAL
THREAT. AS FOR THE HWO...WE PLAN TO CONTINUE TO MENTION FREEZING
RAIN OR MIX AT ONSET FOR THE SOUTHWEST THREE QUARTERS OF THE AREA.

WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE AREA BY MID TO LATE 
THURSDAY MORNING AND AS IT DOES TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS COLD
FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS ON THURSDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
AREA. AS THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE REGION LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS FROM NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. THE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO
EARLY ON FRIDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING
THROUGH AND WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FROM
THIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO LIGHT AND AN INCH OR LESS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE FA LATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. WITH THIS COMBINATION
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
TEENS ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS 
WERE IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE FORECAST WAS KEPT VERY 
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND. AT THE START OF THE 
PERIOD...A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE 
GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE A RIDGE IS 
EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL 
LEAD TO NW FLOW ALOFT INITIALLY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EXPECTED 
TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AND APPALACHIANS. THE 
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD 
BY MIDWEEK...WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST TO THE PLAINS STATES AND 
EVENTUALLY OH VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE 
RIDGE AND A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT 
OVER THE PLAINS AT MIDWEEK AND THE RESULTING TROUGH SHOULD DAMPEN 
THE RIDGE AND APPROACH THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL 
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION ON THU INTO 
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF 
THE OH RIVER AND THEN INTO THE NORTHEAST OR MID ATLANTIC STATES. 
THIS WOULD BRING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS EAST KY ON THU TO THU 
EVENING.

FROM FRI INTO SATURDAY..THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SOME FLATTENING 
OF THE FLOW AT LEAST BRIEFLY FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS 
THOUGH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE 
PERIOD. 

THE SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW SHOULD BRING AT LEAST PERIODS OF CLOUDS OR 
PROLONG CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINING 
AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR THE MON 
NIGHT TO TUE PERIOD WITH THE 12Z GFS RECENT NAM RUNS ARE ALSO MORE 
MOIST THE 12Z ECMWF. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS WELL AS SNOW 
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING DAYTIME HEATING ON TUE 
WHICH WOULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES. ANY SNOW SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE AT 
LEAST SOME LOCALIZED LIGHT AMOUNTS MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. FOR 
POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...WENT A BIT HIGHER THAN THE MODEL BLEND 
CLOSER TO PERSISTENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. GENERALLY DRY 
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BRIEFLY AT MIDWEEK. 

FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU...AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION 
WETBULBING COULD LEAD TO A MIX WITH SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT 
ARRIVES. HOWEVER...ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN 
AS MOSTLY IF NOT ENTIRELY RAIN UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR TUE INTO WED...BUT THEN 
MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL ON THU IN BETWEEN SYSTEM UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD 
FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING INITIAL VFR WHICH SHOULD PREVAIL IN MOST
LOCATIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z ON THU. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
OVERSPREAD BY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH A MID DECK TO
FOLLOW...MOVING IN AFTER 9Z ON THU.

OUTLOOK...FROM 11Z TO 17Z ON THU...MVFR CIGS AND OR VIS SHOULD
DEVELOP AND SOME AT LEAST BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AND VIS 
ARE POSSIBLE 18Z THU THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z FRI. A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR IN ALL AREAS 9Z TO 15Z FRI WITH
THE VFR CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION
ON THU...A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY
NORTH OF THE OH RIVER OR MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF
LUK AND CVG. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
DETERIORATE AGAIN ON SUNDAY...TO MVFR AND THEN TO IFR AND PERHAPS
AIRPORT MINS BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR 
     OHZ026-034-035-043>046-052-054>056-065.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP 
SHORT TERM...JP 
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JP






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