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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 251136
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
636 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND SETTLE
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. 
THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEST WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP NORTHWEST CWA ON
THE COOL SIDE TODAY WITH READINGS AT OR BELOW THE MID 30S. REST OF
CWA WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
TODAY AND RISE TO THE LOW 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS IT TRAVERSES THE
AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE CWA
ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN GET OVERPOWERED IN BETWEEN TWO COMPETING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE EAST COAST STORM AND A STRONG LOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THESE TWO WILL PUT THE REGION INTO A HOLDING
PATTERN UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MUSCLES EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A GENERALLY COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
USHERED IN BEHIND THIS UPPER TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW SKIRT THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS OR AT LEAST A MORE FAVORABLE AIRMASS FOR PASSING
FLURRIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP
DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. MODEL
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH GFS KEEPING ALL PCPN NORTH AND ECMWF BRING
SOME LIGHT QPF IN DURG AFTN AND QUICKLY PIVOTING NE. BASED ON LOW
PROBABILITY AND GFS BEING MORE CONSISTENT...WILL KEEP AREA DRY
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO 40 SE.

MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY WITH WAA PCPN LOOKING TO DEVELOP SAT 
AFTN. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT AND 
TIMING. THEREFORE WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL LATE AFTN
AND THEN ONLY INCREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY SAT NIGHT. IN WAA PATTERN
TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING 
FROM THE MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING 
ABOVE FREEZING ALL PCPN WILL BE RAIN SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT. 

SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA LAYING OUT E-W PARALLEL TO MID/UPR 
LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 PERCENT ACRS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE FROM MID/UPR 
40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE. 

SFC FRONT TO STALL OUT IN THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. 
GFS TAKES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WHILE LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH. WILL SHOW SOME DIMINISH IN POPS ACRS THE NW LATE 
SUN/EARLY MONDAY BUT DO NOT GO COMPLETELY DRY. HIGHS ON MONDAY A LTL 
COOLER THAN SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH A TRAILING SFC TROF CONTINUES TO TICKLE
KDAY...WHILE APPROACHING THE OTHER TAF SITES. LATEST LOOP OF THE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD DECK HAS AN EASTWARD PUSH
TOWARDS KCVG AND COULD BE NEAR THE AIRPORT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. AS DIURNAL HEATING KICKS IN...CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD ALL THE TAFS.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT THE NRN TAFS...BUT THE SRN TAFS
COULD SEE CIGS RISE TO JUST INTO VFR.

LOW LEVEL MODEL RH IS SHOWING THAT THE CIGS WILL OSCILLATE AROUND
I-71 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND THEN INTO TONIGHT. THAT COULD ALLOW
SOME OF THE TAFS TO SCATTERED OUT AFT 00Z...BUT THEN BECOME BROKEN
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES






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