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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 302355
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
755 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE REGION TOMORROW  BRINGING OCCASIONAL RAIN...WHICH MAY
MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A WARMING
TREND BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A H5 S/W WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...AND WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. 12Z MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
BACKING OFF OF THE PCPN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LIGHT
SHOWERS IS FORECAST DEVELOP IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND DROP JUST
S OF THE CVG TRI-STATE AFT 06Z. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE IT WONT AFFECT
THE REGION...SO HAVE DRIED OUT THE OVERNIGHT FCST. 

WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT. LOWS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40 ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
12Z MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DIGGING THE H5 S/W INTO OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CUTTING IT OFF. AS THIS OCCURS A CDFNT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE FA
ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. WENT AHEAD AND UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL AS DONT SEE A
REASON WHY MOST OF THE AREA WONT SEE SOME RAIN TOMORROW.

SINCE FROPA WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE MORNING IN THE NW AND EARLY
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THE CENTER OF SYSTEM WILL DIG QUICKLY INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS
FRIDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL WORK IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. 1000-850 CRITICAL THICKNESSES DROP COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME
FLAKES OF SNOW OR A FEW PELLETS OF SLEET...HOWEVER THE PCPN WILL
ENDING AS THIS OCCURS. SO DONT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS
WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES. TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT I-75 WESTWARD
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FREEZE WATCH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

COLD NORTH WINDS SATURDAY WILL KEEP CLOUDS LINGERING FOR MOST OF
DAY. SOME SCATTERED PCPN MIGHT LINGER IN THE ERN HALF OF THE FA
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST.

MODELS HAVE BECOME QUICKER IN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT IS NOW LOOKING LIKE SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO FREEZING OR BELOW EVERYWHERE.
ISSUED A SECOND FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE COOLEST START ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION 
WILL BE SOMEWHAT MUTED...REACHING THE MID 40S WITH THE CORE OF THE 
COLDEST AIR JUST SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH 
ALSO PASSES EAST OF THE REGION AND OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOW A RETURN TO 
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP. READINGS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL 
BE 7-8 DEG WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT...AND THE REAL WARMUP IS ON 
MONDAY WHERE HIGHS WILL BE 14-15 DEG WARMER THAN SUNDAY DUE TO THE 
DRAMATIC CHANGE IN AIRMASS.

FLOW ON MONDAY BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND A MORE MUTED BUT CONTINUED 
WARMUP WILL BE PRESENT IN THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE 
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRAPE A BOUNDARY FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND 
TO WEST CENTRAL TX. RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TUESDAY 
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE COMING IN LINE WITH THE 
SLOWER SOLUTION PROVIDED BY YESTERDAYS EUROPEAN MODEL. AS THE LARGE 
SCALE FORCING MOVES NORTHEAST...THE SYSTEM WILL SHEAR OUT AND 
RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT 
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. 

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR A DRIER THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY 
FRIDAY...BUT GFS HAS A SURFACE LOW UNDERNEATH THE L/W TROUGH DIGGING 
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. EUROPEAN HAS A SIMILAR UPPER TROUGH FURTHER 
EAST AND INDICATES IT AS THE DRIVING FORCE FOR MOVEMENT OF THE 
SURFACE FRONT...IE MUCH EARLIER WITH NO SURFACE LOW AND/OR PRECIP AT 
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY ONWARD WILL RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL 
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS OUR
AREA FRIDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS...EXPECT MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO
OVERSPREAD OUR AREA TONIGHT AND LOWER LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS AND POSSIBLY VSBYS DROPPING INTO MVFR
CATEGORY. IN DEVELOPING CAA BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND
TO THE WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
30 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE LATER PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS LIKELY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE. MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. 
&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING 
     FOR OHZ034-035-042-043-051-060-061-070-071-077-078.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING 
     FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
     077>082-088.
KY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING 
     FOR KYZ089>096.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING 
     FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING 
     FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING 
     FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...JGL








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