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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 030815
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
415 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST TODAY. A BROADER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND LINGER OVER OHIO
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A VERY WEAK SURFACE PATTERN UNDERNEATH THIS
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR AFTERNOON STORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MORE OF THE SAME IN THE FORECAST. WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH VERY
LITTLE PRESSURE GRADIENT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT IS FAIRLY
WEAK...AND HIGH MOISTURE PROFILES. THE MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING
WILL COMBINE WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND SPARK SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR YET ANOTHER DAY.

HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S AND COMBINE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S FOR ANOTHER MUGGY DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE CIRCULATION OVER EASTERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY EKE
SOUTHWARD AND SETTLE OVER OHIO ON FRIDAY AND MEANDER TO NORTHERN
KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY. WITH A WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND CONTINUED HUMID
AIRMASS...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT IF ONLY IN A
SCATTERED OR ISOLATED NATURE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE WILL LIMIT HIGHS FROM
REACHING PAST 90 THROUGH THIS TIME AS WELL. A BIT OF DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO WORK IN ON SUNDAY...AND THE THREAT FOR STORMS ON THIS
DAY SEEMS A BIT MORE DIMINISHED THAN THE OTHERS. 

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AN 
UNSTABLE AIRMASS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM 
ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE SATURDAY EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN 
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.  A WEAK UPPER LEVEL 
DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO 
MONDAY NIGHT.  ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION 
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  WITHOUT ANY 
SIGNIFICANT FORCING KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED IN 
THE SLIGHT TO CHANCE CATEGORIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE EXTENDED 
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION IS FINALLY DYING OFF AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. LINGERING MID
CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO COULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF FOG AT
LCK...SO LIMITED THE FOG THERE TO THE MVFR CATEGORY THIS MORNING.
FARTHER SOUTH WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE SCATTERED EXPECT A LITTLE MORE
FOG TO DEVELOP...SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WHERE LUK AND ILN
WILL SEE IFR VSBYS BEFORE SUNRISE.

AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF...A H5 SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN OHIO. THIS SHOULD KICK OFF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH.
WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A VCTS AT ALL TAFS...BUT LIMITED THE
WINDOW IN THE SW TAFS.

AFT 00Z...THE S/W CONTINUES TO SLIP SE ACROSS OH. CONVECTION COULD
LINGER LONGER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...SO KEPT A VCTS GOING
ACROSS THE N.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...FRANKS/NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES



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