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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 190522
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
122 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...SKIES WILL STAY
CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. LOWS WILL BE
JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH LOW 50S URBAN AREAS
DOWN INTO THE 40S RURAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS FLATTEN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS
VEERING DURING THE PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL BUT COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THIS. HOWEVER SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PREDOMINANT. AND EVEN AT
THAT NOT SURE THAT IT WILL BE MORE THAN SCATTERED ACTIVITY. SEEING
LITTLE REASON TO VARY MUCH FROM MOS TEMPERATURE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM.  
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
THROUGH PRIMARILY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND 
TAPERING OFF MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THE NAM IS THE 
OUTLIER WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND DISREGARDED THIS SOLUTION AND 
WENT TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS OF THE FASTER SOLUTION.  WITH PRETTY GOOD 
AGREEMENT OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH KEPT LIKELY PRECIPITATION 
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE 
THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD 
INTO THE AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF 
THE LONG TERM TIME PERIOD.  WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE AFTER 
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE 
END OF THE LONG TERM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE AIR
MASS IS FAIRLY DRY...EARLY MORNING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...GENERALLY LIMITED TO MVFR LEVELS AT THE PRONE AIRPORTS.
KLUK MAY BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE
FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE.

ASIDE FROM SOME LIGHT CUMULUS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM ENE TO SW
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...GENERALLY REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS






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