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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 160005
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
805 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES. ON MONDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING
HIGH AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED BY MID- WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO DRIFT SOUTH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
OUR NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
TONIGHT AS WINDS START TO INCREASE AND WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS
TO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING ONLY SOME THIN CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH 
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL 
CONTINUE TO WARM TOMORROW AFTERNOON THANKS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND 
WARMING 900/850 MB TEMPERATURES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO 
START TO STRENGTHEN TOMORROW ALONG WITH THE LLJ WHICH WILL MAKE 
WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES.

TUESDAY MORNING ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIVE 
SOUTHEAST OVER NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE 
AREA. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN A BIT WITH THE FRONT PUSHING IT 
THROUGH MID- MORNING. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT 
LOOKS LIMITED. ALL OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS OFF TO OUR 
NORTHEAST WITH MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE LOWER LEVELS. THE GFS IS 
GENERATING SOME LIGHT QPF ALONG THE FRONT BUT GIVEN THE MOISTURE
PROFILE OF THE SOUNDING AM NOT SOLD ON THIS. HAVE KEPT WITH LOWER
POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM 
SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY AND IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE MORE SOUTHERN 
GFS. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z CMC REMAINS FARTHER NORTH...SPREADING PCPN 
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FA THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND LINGERING IT 
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT 
LOW ON PCPN PLACEMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM. WILL TREND POPS A LITTLE 
HIGHER ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...BUT OTHERWISE STICK CLOSE 
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR CONSISTENCY PURPOSES AND GENERALLY KEEP 
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA DRY THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. BOTH 
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY PUSHING 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NOT A 
WHOLE LOT IN THE WAY OF DEEPER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
FEATURE THOUGH SO WILL JUST CARRY A 20 POP ACROSS THE AREA FOR 
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF HEADING INTO 
THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF WITH SHORT WAVE 
ENERGY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND AS A RESULT IS ALSO 
FASTER AND STRONGER PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO 
SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS...WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED 
TO ADD SOME POPS INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATER IN THE WEEKEND...BUT 
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. 

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE LONG TERM 
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHING
SOUTHWARD...SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. ONLY CLOUDS WILL
BE VARYING SCT/BKN CIRRUS WITH THE TAF SITES ON THE EDGE OF THE
QUICKLY MOVING SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE GREAT LAKES. 

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY MORNING. MVFR
POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...JDR






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