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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 260920
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
420 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM UNDERCUTS THE REGION AND PASSES TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. WEST
FLOW ON THANKSGIVING DAY WILL OCCUR AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES OVER THE REGION...BRINGING SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW. 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND PASS TO THE
EAST...INITIATING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A WARMING TREND FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING
AND LIMIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERIES TODAY. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CLOUDS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S IN
THE NORTHWEST TO LOW 40S OVER KY. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND UNDERCUT THE
HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS ESTABLISHED AND GETTING WORKED OVER IN THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND SPARK SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH
THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO RISE OUT OF THE MID
30S WITH COLD ADVECTION OVER THE REGION. THIS COLD AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PULLED INTO THE AREA ON WNW WINDS UNTIL THE AXIS OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE CLIPPER CROSSES ON FRIDAY. FLOW WILL
TURN SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY AND THE COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLIGHT WARMUP THAT WILL BE
REINFORCED OVER THE WEEKEND.

THIS WEAK WARMING WILL SPARK A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND COULD AFFECT NORTHERN CWA ON FRIDAY...BUT IS
NOT VERY LIKELY TO BE LOCATED THAT FAR SOUTH AT THIS PARTICULAR
TIME IN THE FORECAST PROCESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AT THE SURFACE HEADING INTO
SATURDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AN INVERSION AND
RELATIVELY THICK LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THINGS FROM BECOMING
WELL MIXED BELOW 5000 FEET. EVEN AS MOST OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN
QUITE DRY...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS APPEAR FAIRLY
LIKELY...AND THERE IS EVEN WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT IN LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING BY SATURDAY EVENING (SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR
WHAT LOOKS LIKE A DRIZZLY PROFILE). WITH WARM ADVECTION AND
PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER...MIN TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT /
SUNDAY MORNING WERE INCREASED BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO SUNDAY...AS 
FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS OVR THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING 
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. A SURFACE FRONT IS EVENTUALLY FORECAST TO 
DEVELOP...AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA HEADING 
INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...GIVEN 
THE SHARP GRADIENT...BUT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SOUTH 
OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE 
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE MIX WITH 
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIPITATION 
PATTERNS WITH THIS FRONT ARE FAIRLY STRONG...WITH A SLIGHT TREND 
TOWARD PRECIPITATION GETTING FURTHER SOUTH A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY ON 
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO 
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY 
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW 
FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF MILD (ABOVE NORMAL) TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY 
AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TAFS REMAIN WEDGED BETWEEN SYSTEMS THIS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS
TRAPPED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAVE RETREATED BACK INTO NRN
INDIANA AND NW OH...WHILE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
EAST COAST STORM STREAM ACROSS THE REGION.

AS A H5 S/W DIGS OUT OF THE PLAINS IT WILL HELP THE FLOW TO PUSH
THE MVFR CLOUDS SEWD OVERNIGHT. MODEL TIME SECTIONS ARE INDICATING
THAT THEY COULD REACH KDAY AROUND SUNRISE. MODELS ONCE AGAIN ARE
STALLING THE SE ADVANCEMENT OF THE MVFR CIGS AROUND I-71...MAKING
THE CLOUD FORECAST TRICKY. BROUGHT THE MVFR CIGS INTO CVG/LUK FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS LATE THIS MORNING...THEN PULLED THEM BACK TO THE
NW. WITH THE EAST COAST STORM HOLDING THINGS UP...CIGS ACROSS THE
EASTERN TAFS WILL LOWER LATER THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
VFR.

AS EAST COAST STORM PULLS AWAY LATER TODAY...THE WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE TN VALLEY...KEEPING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES







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