Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Wilmington, OH banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KILN 300751
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
351 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY. A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND THEN PUSH THROUGH ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SKIES ARE CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES PUSHES A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
ILN AREA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THE MAIN TARGET AREA FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE OVER
NORTHEAST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT. KEPT THUNDER OUT AS MODELS SHOW A RATHER
SHALLOW LAYER OF INSTABILITY FROM ABOUT 7000 TO 11000 FT ASL.
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FARTHER FROM THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM MAY NOT
SEE ANY SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE HARDER THAN AVERAGE TO FORECAST DUE TO THE
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND IT. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S FAR
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...UP TO AROUND 80 ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS THE
DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE EXPECT
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

FOR THURSDAY...VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED TOWARD THE AREA
FROM THE WEST BY AN EXTENSIVE UPPER TROUGH. THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING...HAVE BACKED OFF ON TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS TO
COME IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MODELS. WENT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN COUNTIES BY THURSDAY EVENING. 

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AS WARM
ADVECTION STARTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S
THURSDAY WHEN WARM ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH A COLD 
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE 
WEEKEND AND AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE THROUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW 
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS SOME 
UNCERTAINTY HOW FAST THE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED 
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WINDS REGIME SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE LKLY
ESPECIALLY ACRS KLUK AND KILN. HAVE LIMITED VSBY RESTRICTION TO
MVFR AT KILN WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT KLUK.

UPPER LEVEL S/W TO DROP SE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THRU ILN/S AREA TODAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL VFR CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH 
TOWARD SUNRISE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA.
HAVE COVERED THIS CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A MENTION OF VCSH. EXPECT
A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ACRS KCMH/KLCK DURG THE AFTN. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT KDAY OR KILN BUT
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. 

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AROUND 10 KTS BEHIND
THE FRONT THIS MORNING AND THEN VEER TO THE NORTH THIS AFTN. 


OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR






National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy