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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 311812
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
212 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SLOW MOVING BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE ENE ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. CONTINUE
TO HAVE HEAVY RAIN MENTION IN THE FORECAST AND IN THE HWO FOR THIS
BAND AND ALSO FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP INTO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY AND
THEREFORE HAVE DECREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BETTER FORCING WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON
MONDAY...BUT EXPECT ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL AGAIN
BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON SKY COVER. RIGHT NOW WILL STICK CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FCST PERIOD BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH AREA. HAVE BUMPED 
POPS UP A BIT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND CONSENSUS OF TIMING. CUT BACK 
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING OUT OF CWA AND HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. RIDGE WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY 
FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY APPEARS TO 
PROVIDE AXIS OF MOISTURE WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG IT. HAVE 
KEPT POPS LOW FOR NOW WITH CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ON TIMING AND 
COVERAGE. THIS SETS UP MORE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE END OF 
THE WEEK WITH APPROACHING FRONT BY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN 
FOR NOW. 

TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOLEST AIR
ON WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. MORE HEAT LATE WEEK WITH TEMPS AT
OR APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVENING.  ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY.

CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER SOME
IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT IN THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE
EARLY DAYTIME MORNING HOURS AT ALL BUT KCVG AND KLUK. VSBYS WILL
START OUT VFR ACROSS THE AREA.  VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR TO
IFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY.

WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.  

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...NOVAK






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