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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 161948
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
348 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY 
AS IT SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. MILDER AIR WILL RETURN AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS RETREATING HIGH. SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF TO 
THE EAST BECOMING CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. A 
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ON THE BACK 
SIDE OF THIS RETREATING SFC HIGH. SKIES WILL START OUT MAINLY CLEAR 
THIS EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. 
QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND WHETHER WIND/CLOUDS WILL MITIGATE FROST 
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. EXPECT THAT SOME FROST WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY 
IN PROTECTED AREAS. WILL CONTINUE FROST ADVISORY ACRS THE SOUTH 
WHERE THE SEASON HAS STARTED. HAVE TAKEN FROST MENTION OUT OF
WEST CENTRAL OHIO WHERE WINDS PICK UP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING
GRADIENT. LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NE TO THE MID
30S SOUTH. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN RETREATING SFC HIGH 
PRESSURE AND WEAK COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. THIS SRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW 
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE TO READINGS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON 
THURSDAY. EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAINLY EARLY
AND THEN DECREASING AS THE OHIO VALLEY GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NE TO THE UPPER 60S SW.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES TO PHASE TO OUR WEST WITH A LONG WAVE TROF AXIS 
PIVOTING THRU THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME 
INCREASE IN CLOUDS THICKEST ACRS THE WEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH 
SOME WIND AROUND 5 KTS AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECT THURSDAY NIGHTS 
LOWS TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...RANGING FROM NEAR 40 NE TO THE LOWER/MID
40S SW.

WEAK SFC COLD FRONT TO PIVOT EAST THRU ILN/S FA FRIDAY/FRIDAY 
EVENING. MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING MOISTURE/TIMING WITH 
THIS WEAK FRONT. MAIN SFC LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND FORCING IS VERY 
WEAK OVER ILN/S FA. WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS TO CHC IN THE WEST 
FRIDAY AFTN AND THEN ONLY ALLOW SLIGHT CHC IN THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE FRIDAY. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE MID 40S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION MONDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THE FRONT...BUT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
EXIST...WITH GFS FASTER AND ECMWF OFFERING A SLOWER SOLUTION.
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS AND WENT WITH A MODEL
BLEND...WHICH YIELDS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH MODELS SHOWING SCANT INSTABILITY AND RATHER WEAK WIND
FIELDS ALONG THE FRONT...DECIDED TO OMIT THUNDER. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A BIT COOL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 
FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DUE TO A MODEST AMOUNT 
OF WARM ADVECTION...HIGHS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE 
ANTICIPATED TO AVERAGE IN THE NEAR NORMAL MID AND UPPER 60S. 

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL MOVE TO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY 12Z THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. EAST/SOUTHEAST
WINDS WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
ONTARIO CANADA AS A COLD FRONT SAGS EAST TOWARD OUR REGION.
MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STILL FORECAST WITH THE WIND BECOMING
SOUTHERLY. 

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ077>082-
     088.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ073>075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN






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