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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 191747
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1247 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO
A WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT MUCH OF THE
AREA IS SHROUDED IN A COUPLE OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD LAYERS. 19.12Z
KILN SOUNDING SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 925 MB AND 900
MB...OR ABOUT 1 KFT THICK. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE AREA...THINK CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH AS THEY REMAIN STUCK
UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. IF ANY BREAKS OCCUR...IT WOULD
APPEAR MOSTLY LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE EROSION...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT WITH
LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING IN MOST AREAS...APPEARS THAT THERE IS TOO
MUCH DRY AIR BETWEEN WHERE THE MID LEVEL LIFT IS AND THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION. HAVE BEEN CAUTIOUSLY
OPTIMISTIC THAT THERE WILL BE FEWER CLOUDS IN THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THERE IS A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION. 

EXPECT LOWS TO BE SIMILAR TO PERSISTENCE BOTH NIGHTS. HIGHS SHOULD
START TO WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH READINGS NEAR
NORMAL BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW STRENGTHENS AND AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MILDER AT THE START OF THE WEEK BUT THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN. 00Z MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE WET AS THIS MOVES THROUGH AND
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ON THE BACK SIDE. SO THERE COULD BE A
TRANSITION TO SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES OFF. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL ENSUE.
ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM IN THE GREAT
LAKES MAY TRIGGER SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE BETWEEN 925 MB AND 900 MB WILL
LIKELY REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH PESSIMISTIC TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC MVFR
CEILINGS. STAGNANT AIRMASS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME HAZE/MIST
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MID MORNING. 

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HICKMAN






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