Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Wilmington, OH banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KILN 141744
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
144 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND WILL TRAVERSE THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS RAIN BEGINNING TO EXIT EAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER AN INCH ARE COMMON. THE PCPN WAS BEING CAUSED BY A
LOW LEVEL JET AND DEFORMATION ZONE WHICH IS PUSHING OFF TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AN ADDITIONAL ONE QUARTER TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THAT REMAIN IN A FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT. 

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONCUR THAT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY...DEEP MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO EXIT
THE REGION ALONG WITH A WEAKENING TREND IN THE OVERALL FORCING.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW A QUICK DIMINISH IN RAIN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
SUCH THAT ONLY A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE SE CWFA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE TAKEN A
BLEND OF MODELS FOR FORECAST HIGHS WHICH SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 50S NW TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. CAA AND
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME POST FRONTAL STRATOCUMULUS
ACRS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 30S.

ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. A
FEW CLOUDS EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MAINLY SUNNY SKIES BY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE MOVING
EAST DURING THE DAY...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO PINPOINT HOW WARM IT WILL
GET GIVEN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BUT A COLD START. WILL RANGE HIGHS
FROM THE LOWER 50S NE TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTHWEST.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH.
SOME S/WV ENERGY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY SPREAD SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE
LOWER AND MID 30S...BUT WE SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD MORNING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN.

HAVE TAKEN A CUE FROM THE WPC WHICH IS TO USE A BLEND OF THE 00Z
NAM AND 00Z ECMWF FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS
SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT MUCH FASTER
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. 

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. WITH DECENT RETURN
FLOW AND WAA BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH TO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BOOST HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. IT WILL ALSO BE LOCALLY BREEZY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST INTO SE CANADA...THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SCENARIO WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. RIGHT
NOW...THE FRONT APPEARS MOISTURE STARVED AND WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY ATTM. THE BIGGEST FEATURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
RETURN TO MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIVERGE FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A BIT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY FOR
THIS TIME FRAME. DUE TO THIS WENT WITH A DRIER SOLUTION FOR NOW
UNTIL A MORE PRONOUNCED SIGNAL DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN HAS ENDED AND CEILINGS AS LOW AS IFR WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD LEAVE TAF SITES VFR BY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...MVFR CEILINGS MAY RETURN TO CMH AND LCK LATER TONIGHT
AS CLOUDS FORM IN LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN ADDITION...BR
MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT LUK LATER TONIGHT WHEN WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE NEAR CALM THERE. OTHER SITES MAY REMAIN VFR THOUGH LIGHTER
THAN EXPECTED WINDS MAY ALLOW BR TO FORM THERE AS WELL. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ARE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ070>074-
     077>082-088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ066-073>075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN/NOVAK
AVIATION...CONIGLIO






National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy