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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 291151
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
651 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY WORK INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY BEFORE A STRONGER SYSTEM BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ROAD TEMPERATURES AND AIR TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT WARMED AS QUICKLY
AS ANTICIPATED ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. IN ADDITION
PRECIPITATION IS MOVING IN A LITTLE QUICKER THAN EARLIER FORECAST. DUE TO
THIS HAVE ADDED SOME COUNTIES INTO THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR
THIS MORNING. 

AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE FA ARE NOW ABOVE
FREEZING WHILE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE FA ARE STILL
BELOW FREEZING. EVEN IN AREAS WHERE AIR TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
FREEZING SOME OF THE ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SLICK SPOTS ACROSS THE AREA. CONTINUED SPS FOR
LOCATIONS NOT INCLUDED IN THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. ADDED SOME
MORE COUNTIES ONTO THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WHERE ROAD AND AIR
TEMPERATURES WERE COOLER.

AS WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY ALL LOCATIONS
WILL GO ABOVE FREEZING. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
AFTER THIS INITIAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH HOWEVER
EXPECT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER TODAY AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AS THE COLDER AIR
BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE FA RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION
OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. WIND GUSTS
WILL INCREASE AS WELL WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE ALREADY TRANSITIONED OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS
BY THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND H8 WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A BAND OF SNOW OFF OF THE LAKE WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND
UNDER AN INCH. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AT TIMES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA.  A LARGER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING SNOW TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING 
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WITH MODEST AMPLITUDE WHILE THE CANADIAN IS 
DEEPER/SHARPER AND THUS SLOWER. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARDS 
GFS/ECMWF WHICH ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z GEFS MEAN. THIS WOULD 
SUGGEST THAT A COMPARATIVELY WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH 
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER A LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL BE 
ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF 
THIS SNOW. THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND MOVE OFF 
TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR ERROR AS MODELS 
HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUT FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN 
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING TO BUMP POPS UP SLIGHTLY FROM 
EARLIER FORECAST. THERE IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING ACCUMULATING 
SNOW FROM THIS ALTHOUGH IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO THINK ABOUT SPECIFICS 
IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS.

MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND MOVE OFF TO 
THE EAST TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. DEPENDING 
ON SNOW ON THE GROUND AND SKY COVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO BE 
EVEN COLDER PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT. 00Z MODELS SHOWING SOME 
DISCREPANCIES WITH TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. GFS SEEMED TOO FAST 
AND SO IGNORED IT. THUS BROUGHT A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON 
WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE PAST THE TERMINALS EARLY IN THE
TAF PERIOD. APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW FREEZING
IN THE COLUMBUS AREA...SO SOME LIGHT ICING CAN BE EXPECTED THERE.
VISIBILITIES MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR...BUT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS TO START. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
BECOME GUSTY WHILE SLOWLY VEERING. APPEARS THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL
START TO MOVE IN JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DROP
CEILINGS TO MVFR. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH
THE FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE WEST AND REMAIN GUSTY WITH CEILINGS LOWERING FURTHER
AND A PERIOD OF IFR IS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS LIFTING ABOVE 2000 FT TOWARDS 12Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-
     034-035-043>046-052>056-063>065-073-074-080>082-088.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...






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