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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 011052
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
652 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY. WITH HEATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP WITH BETTER COVERAGE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
FORECAST HIGHS NEAR A MOS CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH SUBTLE SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH IT WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST DURING THE PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED INVERTED
TROUGH AT THE SURFACE WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN MOVE
EAST AS WELL BY SUNDAY.

EXPECT SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. WITH HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ON SATURDAY SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN WITH COVERAGE GREATER THAN FRIDAY.
APPEARS THAT ACTIVITY MAY PASS EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY WITH MUCH OF THIS EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING. STILL
HELD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SUNDAY IN THE
EASTERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE TROUGH. BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE DAY. MOS SEEMS TO BE REASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART
WITH TEMPERATURES. USED A BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT ANY DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD KEEPING THE REGION DRY. A SHORT WAVE DROPPING IN WEAK
NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME STORMS TO PUSH TOWARDS
WEST CENTRAL OHIO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN INDICATED A
MORE ENERGETIC AND DEEPER TROUGH IN THE EAST WHICH ALLOWS A COLD
FRONT TO DRIVE THROUGH THE REGION MID WEEK. EVEN THOUGH THESE TWO
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT HAVE STAYED WITH FLATTER GFS/GEFS
MEAN WHICH MAINTAINS BETTER CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT A FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO HAVE
SOME STORMS MOVE OFF THE BOUNDARY AND POSSIBLY AFFECT NORTHERN
COUNTIES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GFS SOLUTION WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. ANY REMAINING FOG
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE SHORT LIVED. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DUE TO THE LIMITED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED STORMS KEPT
PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS INTO
THE AREA ALLOWING FOR MORE COVERAGE IN THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A VCTS
MENTION IN THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK






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