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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 021745
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
145 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS HIGH PRESSURE AREA AT THE
SURFACE WILL LINGER IN THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL
BRING CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW BUT IN AN AREA
OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HI RES MODELS SUGGEST THESE STORMS
WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORNING. AS WE
GET INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE...SOME
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP POPS PRETTY LOW AS FORCING IS SOMEWHAT
QUESTIONABLE AS WE WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK AND ACROSS OUR NORTH.

HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN BE FOUND IN THE REGION AS STRONG
RIDGING ALOFT IN THE CENTRAL U.S. STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. 

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S AND
APPROACH 90 IN MANY SPOTS...WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70. A
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CONTINUE ANY CONVECTION BEYOND
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. 

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE UNDER SIMILAR CONDITIONS WITH THE
REMNANTS OF THE THURSDAY NIGHT DISTURBANCE UNDERCUTTING THE H5
RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...RETROGRADING TO THE
SOUTHWEST. CONTINUED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL OCCUR WITH
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHILE SOME OF THE SPECIFICS REGARDING THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAIN 
UNCERTAIN...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SUPPORTING ABOVE-NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES SHOWS NO SIGNS OF CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH 
ONLY A SLIGHT TREND TOWARD THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKING DOWN GOING 
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

ON FRIDAY MORNING...THE AXIS OF A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE WILL EXTEND 
FROM THE TEXAS COAST NNE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. AT THE 
SURFACE..THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY NEBULOUS...WITH WEAK 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE OHIO 
VALLEY IN A REGIME OF WEAK AND MOIST LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND. THIS IS CERTAINLY A PATTERN THAT SUPPORTS WARM 
CONDITIONS...AND MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ARE 
EXPECTED. GEFS 850MB/700MB TEMPERATURE AND 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES 
ARE NOT EXTREME...RANGING FROM AROUND 0.5 TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS 
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS LENDS SUPPORT TO A 
FORECAST FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT AT THE HIGH END OF 
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORD.

WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE FORCING...ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION 
WILL BE LIMITED. BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...THE GFS HAS BEEN A 
LITTLE MORE WILLING TO CONVECT...BUT QPF OUTPUT IS NOT SIGNIFICANT 
IN EITHER CASE. A DRY FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MOST OF THE 
FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT IN FOR FRIDAY.

ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO 
FLATTEN...THOUGH THE EXTENT AND QUICKNESS THAT THIS OCCURS IS NOT IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT. AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS 
GOING INTO TUESDAY...EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE 
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. HOW FAR THIS PROCESS GETS IS MUCH TOO EARLY 
TO FORECAST...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SHOW A SLIGHT 
DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND AS LIGHT INCREASE IN POPS FOR
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PUSHING
VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFTERNOON.
SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THESE STORMS ARE EVIDENT ON RADAR
AND WE ARE SEEING SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS POPPING UP
ALONG THEM. MEANWHILE...THE CU FIELD HAS BECOME A BIT MORE HEALTHY
LOOKING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION SO WILL GO AHEAD AND COVER
THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THREAT WITH A VCTS AT ALL THE TAF
SITES.

CU AND ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS
WE LOSE THE DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR TO IFR
BR/FG DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE
LOCATIONS OF KLUK/KLCK AND KILN. IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SHORT
WAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING AT
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...JGL



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