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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 140541
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
141 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT...KEEPING A COOL AND DRY
AIRMASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO MONDAY. AFTER A COLD FRONT
BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE MONDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE STRATOCUMULUS HAS DISSIPATED. SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...UNTIL SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS PUSH ACROSS
THE SRN FORECAST AREA TOWARD MORNING. THESE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
THIN. 

UNDER A COOL AIRMASS WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S WHICH WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW UPPER 30S IN SOME OF THE
SHELTERED...LOW-LYING COLD SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND
ON A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO
RISE TO NEAR 70 IN THE PERSISTENTLY COOL AIRMASS.

ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PREDICTING THE ARRIVAL OF A
SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY. A
DECENT AMOUNT OF PVA ALONG WITH SOME BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE
AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL WORK TOGETHER WITH SCANT MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE AND
FRONT. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE IN NORTHERN COUNTIES
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE...WHILE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY SEE DIMINISHED CHANCES LATER MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE SYSTEM SCOOTS EAST. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOW 70S ON
MONDAY AS A MODEST AMOUNT OF WARM ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD MID/UPR LEVEL TROF ACRS THE NE US AND SE CANADA TO START THE 
LONG TERM PERIOD. HAVE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE FAR SE VERY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NW FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDING IN...OFFERING COOL AND DRY WEATHER THRU MID WEEK. 

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT LOOKS TO WASH OUT AS IT PUSHES TOWARD
OUR AREA. A SECOND LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN 
WILL BUILD SE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

SOME MODIFICATION IN FORM OF A SLIGHT WARM UP WILL BEGIN FRIDAY WHEN
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.  

HAVE CHC POPS SAT NIGHT WITH S/W AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM 
DROPPING THRU THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS FROM VARIABLE DIRECTIONS WILL BE
FOUND OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE. CI SPILLING
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION SHOULD BE THE ONLY CLOUDS TO
SPEAK OF TODAY. SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY BE PRESENT IN RIVER
VALLEYS AND KLUK TAF SITE AT DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS






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