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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 202014
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
414 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN
STORE FOR TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF TO THE EAST.
DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES SLOWLY EAST WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT LIES ACROSS INDIANA. THE SHOWERS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70...WITH ONLY SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED COVERAGE FARTHER SOUTH. DRIVEN BY A RAPIDLY MOVING MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE...THE MAIN BODY OF SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING TO THE
EAST EARLY THIS EVENING. A LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN
NORTHEAST COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DIVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. A RELATIVELY HUMID AND
WELL MIXED AIRMASS SURROUNDING THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP
IN THE 40S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW POSITIONED IN THE VICINITY OF
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN LOCATIONS. AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SPINS TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN COUNTIES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOISTURE AND UPPER AIR ENERGY TO SLIDE FARTHER
EAST...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW A DRYING TREND...LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHEN PATCHY FROST MAY FORM LATE. 

RATHER CHILLY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT SFC OVER THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM 
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING WITH 
LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING 
FROM THE MID 50S NORTH NEAR 60 FAR SOUTH. 

NORTHERN PORTION OF MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BE PINCHED OFF WITH 
EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. DETERMINISTIC 
MODEL SOLNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS 
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED SO WILL ONLY SHOW AN 
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP 
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S ON FRIDAY.  

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LARGE RIDGE OVER THE 
ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO 
VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. A 
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE 
MID 60S...IN THE MID 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW ON SUNDAY AND  IN THE 
UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW ON MONDAY.  

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER INDIANA...AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES. TIMING OUT THIS ACTIVITY FOR THE AIRPORTS...TEMPO GROUPS
FOR THUNDER HAVE NOW BEEN INCLUDED. ALTHOUGH NOT SPECIFICALLY IN
THE FORECAST...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF VERY SMALL HAIL WITH
SOME OF THE STORMS. HOWEVER...AVIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN VFR...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS.

AFTER A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
PRECIPITATION...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH...SWITCHING
WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. AS THIS OCCURS...A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH.
CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH IFR CEILINGS FOR THE DAYTON/COLUMBUS TAF SITES...AND
MVFR CEILINGS FOR CINCINNATI. IT IS NOT EXACTLY CERTAIN WHEN THE
CLOUDS WILL LIFT ON TUESDAY...AND MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST WELL
AFTER SUNRISE.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS






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