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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 280758
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
358 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE AREA WITH SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR
EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF SC IS DROPPING QUICKLY
DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WILL SOME LOW LEVEL CAA BEHIND A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS
THAT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH OUR AREA BY MID MORNING. CYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND AS WE START TO
SLIGHTLY DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT TO SEE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP. IN A CAA PATTERN...HIGHS TODAY
WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW 70S. 
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT ALL
THE WAY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN VERY SLOWLY MODERATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID 70S TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITIES PROGGED EACH
DAY...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY THURS AND FRI THAT THE SHOWERS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL AS NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN THE TROF DEEPENING AGAIN. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS THAN THE ECMWF.

THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH DAYS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROF
LIFTS E.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. MVFR DECK
SPREADING SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BEGIN TO REACH
TERMINALS FROM KILN NORTHWARD JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT TO VFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO CLEAR
LATER THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...LATTO







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