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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 131412
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1012 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL STREAM FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PCPN IS SLOWLY OVERSPREADING SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA THIS
MORNING WITH BETTER RETURNS JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING 35-45 KNOT 925-850 MB JET OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL KENTUCKY THAT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS
IT SHIFTS EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT PCPN TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA WITH
AN UPTICK IN INTENSITY AS WE PROGRESS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET...EXPECT THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST PCPN TO LINE UP ALONG AND JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-1.5
INCHES THROUGH 00Z...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF
LOW LEVEL WAA AND CLOUDS/PCPN. WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S. 
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FIRST MAIN WAVE OF PCPN WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE SECOND WAVE OF PCPN WILL BE THE RESULT OF A NRN
STREAM S/WV AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH THE
SHEARING ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM. PWATS
AROUND 1.30 INCHES...OR ABOUT 280 PERCENT OF NORMAL...WILL BECOME
SQUEEZED OUT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY. AGAIN...HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO FALL IN OUR SRN CWFA
WHERE THE FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY...PCPN SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM FRIDAYS AND SATURDAYS PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 1.50 ACRS THE NRN CWFA WITH 1.50 TO PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS 2.50 ACRS THE SRN CWFA. AGAIN...THIS WILL RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN CWFA ALONG WITH
CONTINUED RISES ON LOCAL RIVERS. AGREED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
SHIFT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE WARMER SIDE TONIGHT GIVEN
CLOUDS/PCPN AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. ON SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL BE
TRICKY AGAIN SINCE A FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH...SO ONCE
AGAIN TOOK A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE MODELS. THIS YIELDS HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 50S NW TO THE LOWER 60S SE. 

COLD FRONT WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING AS WELL AS
THE WIDESPREAD PCPN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...ALLOWING SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR AND
DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE AREA.

FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE
REGION. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY SOME
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT. COOLEST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH WARMER READINGS OVER THE SOUTHWEST.

ON MONDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. PRETTY DECENT WAA DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON RETURN FLOW. WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN...HIGHS
WILL PUSH INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE. THERE IS
NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL WORK INTO THE AREA ON 
TUESDAY.  ANOTHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO 
FRIDAY.  HELD OFF ON BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE REGION
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TAF PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS...AS CEILINGS
GRADUALLY GET LOWER AND THICKER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...RAIN IS SOON TO ARRIVE FOR THE TAF SITES...AND IS
CURRENTLY MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST (ACROSS INDIANA AND
KENTUCKY). ONCE THE RAIN ARRIVES IN A FEW HOURS...SOME POCKETS OF
HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE EXPECTED. WHILE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD GENERALLY BE MVFR IN THE
RAIN...POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR.

BY AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VERY SATURATED...AND
WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH RAIN MAY
NOT BE STEADY THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...THE OVERALL
TREND FOR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE A
DETERIORATION...LEADING TO SOLID IFR (POSSIBLY LIFR) CONDITIONS BY
LATE THIS EVENING. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EVEN MORE LIKELY DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT...AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO END UNTIL MID MORNING ON SATURDAY...AND
EVEN WHEN IT DOES...CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VERY LOW.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SSE TODAY...REACHING INTO THE 12-15 KNOT
RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL MAKE A GRADUAL CLOCKWISE
SHIFT TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...EVENTUALLY ENDING UP IN
A WESTERLY DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...IFR VISIBILITIES AND IFR/LIFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ070>074-077>082-
     088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS









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