000
FXUS61 KILN 250148
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
948 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIP EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. VERY
COOL TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND WILL SLOWLY
MODERATE. BY MEMORIAL DAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE REGION AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RAPIDLY DROP LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
EARLY MORNING SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST HAVE BEEN COOLING
A LITTLE SLOWER THAN FORECAST...WHILE TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST
APPEAR ON PAR WITH THEIR CURRENT FORECAST. WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF
COOLING AHEAD...IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT CURRENT MINIMUMS WILL BE
REACHED FOR THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS. THEREFORE MADE ONLY
NEAR TERM TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND KEPT THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST MINIMUMS FOR TONIGHT. 

.PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION AT 257 PM...

DRY AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN HAS PUSHED MUCH OF THE DIURNAL CU EAST OF THE
REGION. ANY REMAINING CU SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THIS SHOULD LEAVE THE SKIES CLEAR FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE NIGHT AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL RAPIDLY. SOME SCT CI
SHOULD TRY AND BUILD IN AFT MIDNIGHT...BUT IT SHOULDNT HAVE ANY
AFFECT ON HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP.

FORECAST LOWS FOR TONIGHT HAVE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES IN THE
E...WITH THE RURAL COUNTIES AROUND CMH DROPPING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S. HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE RURAL
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OHIO AND THE MIDDLE SCIOTO VALLEY. HAVE SOME
PATCHY UPPER 30S SPECKLED ACROSS THE FA...BUT DID NOT PUT FROST
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH
LEAVES THE OHIO VALLEY IN NW FLOW. MODELS DROP UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
DOWN THE E SIDE OF THE RIDGE ON SATURDAY. SEVERAL MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING SOME PCPN WORKING INTO THE TRI-STATE SATURDAY AFTN. TOYED
WITH THE IDEA OF ADDING A MENTION OF SPRINKLES. BUT THE LOWER
LEVELS STILL LOOK DRY...SO WILL PASS THE BUCK TO THE NEXT SHIFT
AND WILL LEAVE THE FCST DRY.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS S OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE HIGH
TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE AREA.

ON SUNDAY UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND WARM FRONT BEGINS
TO DEVELOP AND WORK TOWARDS THE AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT GRADUALLY
INCREASE AND BY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME SCT SHRA. ADDED LOW END CHC POPS TO
THE FORECAST.

AFTER A COOL START SATURDAY MORNING....HAVE THE HIGHS MAKING THE
MID 60S ON SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE 40S SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MAKING THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO 
VALLEY FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND THEN LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT AND 
EARLY TUESDAY. SHOWERS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FEATURE WILL PREVAIL 
BUT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIDE VARIATION ON WHEN THESE START.

ON TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-15 DEG WARMER THAN MONDAY AS 
FLOW TURNS SOUTH AND WARMER AIR OF A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL NATURE GETS 
PULLED IN. WITH THE WARMER AIR IS HIGHER DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL 
NATURALLY BUMP NIGHTTIME LOWS SIGNIFICANTLY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
OFFSHORE AND A MEAN BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE 
COUNTRY WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 
60S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. 

ASIDE FROM RAIN WITH THE FROPA EARLY IN THE FORECAST...THINGS SHOULD 
REMAIN DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES WITH DECREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. BY SUNSET...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. SOME CIRRUS WILL BEGIN PASS
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. IF TEMPERATURES AT KLUK DO COOL ENOUGH
LATE TONIGHT...THEN THERE COULD BE SOME RIVER FOG DEVELOPMENT
AFFECTING THAT TERMINAL. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE REGION WILL PRODUCE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BRING SCT CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA...INCREASING IN
COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ046-056-
     064-065-073-074-082.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...LATTO