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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 292350
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
750 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WARM FRONT IS SPARKING SHOWERS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF METRO
CINCY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND SPREAD THOSE SHOWERS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. A FEW SHOWERS OVER ERN KY
WILL LIKELY NOT REACH SERN CWA AND PORTSMOUTH AREA BUT AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT...SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG A
DAYTON/CHILLICOTHE LINE BEFORE THE AIRMASS BECOMES UNFAVORABLE WITH
THE EVENING STRATIFICATION. 

RAMPED UP POPS IN THE NODE THAT WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS - NOT ANY
LIGHTNING ATTM BUT CALLED THEM TSTORMS. SPREAD THE AREA OUTWARD AS
TIME PROGRESSED AND INTRODUCED LOW CHANCES OF STORMS WNW AND ESE
OF WHERE THESE STORMS WERE EXPECTED TO BE IN A FEW HOURS. ABSORBED
THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT INCLUDED THE MIDNIGHT
HOUR...SO LITTLE TO NO CHANCES OF THIS STUFF CONTINUING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT OR TO REACH THE I-70 CORRIDOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT THIS WILL SUPPRESS THE SOUTHEAST
US RIDGE AND ALLOW ENERGY TO LIFT OUT OF THE GULF AND MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. 

FOR SATURDAY BETTER UPPER SUPPORT WILL ONLY BE SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES. SO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THAT AREA. STRONGER FORCING AREA WIDE
WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE STAYED WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS FOR NOW GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES WITH PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL BE OVER 150 PERCENT SO THERE COULD BE SOME RESPECTABLE
RAINFALL TOTALS. AS STRONGER FORCING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST LATER
SUNDAY...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH.
WHILE THIS MAY EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A LULL...THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT
HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE EAST.

PRECIPITATION AND SUBSTANTIAL LOWER CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING VERY MUCH. HAVE USED A MOS BLEND
LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH FORECAST AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
WARMER MOS NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE LONG 
TERM FORECAST. EACH MODEL RUN WAS SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER WITH TIMING 
AND PLACEMENT OF UPCOMING SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS. ALSO..THE GFS SEEM TOO 
FAST IN PUSHING A WARM FRONT BACK NORTHWARD MID WEEK BASED ON MID TO 
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. 

ON MONDAY...OUR AREA WILL BE IN A RELATIVE LULL IN TERMS OF PCPN 
CHANCES. WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL HAVE EXITED OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A 
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DIURNAL HEATING WITH A 
CONTINUED HUMID AIRMASS MAY POP A SHOWER OR STORM...PARTICULARLY 
DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. 

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL 
SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT 
SOMEWHERE OVER THE CNTRL OR SRN CWFA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST UPR 
LVL DYNAMICS PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 
HOWEVER...ENOUGH HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE CALL FOR AT LEAST 
40 TO 50 POPS.

ON WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS MENTIONED IS EXPECTED TO STALL 
OVER THE AREA WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE A LITTLE. WILL 
CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY CNTRL AND SRN 
SECTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

LOOKS LIKE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRY TO BUILD NORTHWARD 
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/WV AND COLD FRONT 
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT THURSDAY DRY IN 
THE MOIST RETURN FLOW ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A 
POP UP SHOWER OR STORM. HAVE GONE WITH 20 AND 30 POPS ON FRIDAY 
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL 
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS IN VC LUK WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND POSSIBLY MAKE KILN OR
MORESO KDAY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THESE ARE NOT DEEP CONVECTIVE
CELLS AND LACK THUNDER...SO THEY SHOULD FALL APART AND DISSIPATE
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. 

OUTSIDE OF THESE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND OVER TAF SITES
UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN MORE SHOWERS SPREAD INTO OHVLY FROM
THE WEST. FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AND CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW
LEVELS WILL HELP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO INITIATE
AND THEN PROPAGATE NORTHEAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW. 

BETTER CHANCES FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AS THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER TREKS TOWARDS THE OH/IN/KY CONFLUENCE SUNDAY
MORNING...BEYOND TAF VALID TIME. 

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS/NOVAK







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