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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 232333
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
733 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA. MOS LOWS LOOKED IN THE BALLPARK. TEMPERATURES
MAY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST TO THE EAST OF COLUMBUS BUT THINK
THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP IT PATCHY AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BUT MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE LIMITED
SO CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN IS VERY LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOS BLEND
PROVIDED A REASONABLE FIRST GUESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM TIME 
PERIOD.  WINDS PICK UP AND BECOME SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR 
TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 70S.  SOUTHERLY FLOW 
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES 
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE ALSO 
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 70S.

MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH 
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED 
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION 
EXITING THE AREA BY THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.  THERE IS SOME 
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 
ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON 
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOW 60S.  HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AND REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR 
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR EXCEPT AT LUK WHERE BR MAY FORM LATER TONIGHT. WEAK
DISTURBANCES RIDING ABOVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MID
AND HIGH CLOUD FORMATION. LOWER CLOUDS WILL ENTER THE PICTURE
AROUND 15Z BUT CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST WHILE SPEEDS STAY BELOW 7 KNOTS. 

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...CONIGLIO






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