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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 300042
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
842 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL CU HAS DISSIPATED THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. THINK MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL REMAIN
CLEAR BUT WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S WITH
SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING AREAS. 
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA ON
TUESDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY HOWEVER DUE TO THE
LIMITED CHANCE OF THUNDER DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
LIMITED TO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY EVENING AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WORK BACK INTO THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH A COLD 
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. EXPECT UNSEASONABLY WARM 
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY BUT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOST LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND 
FRIDAY.

UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE 
WEEKEND AND AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE THROUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW 
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS SOME 
UNCERTAINTY HOW FAST THE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED 
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIURNAL CU HAS PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AGAIN TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT DUE TO BR/FG. WILL
STICK PRETTY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE AND ALLOW FOR SOME LIFR FG AT
KLUK LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SOME LOWER
LEVEL VFR CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND ON INTO TUESDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA AND WILL COVER THE
CHANCE WITH A VCSH FROM MID MORNING ON INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JGL







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