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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 171948
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
348 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW OBSERVED 
BETWEEN RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE AND AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONT. A 
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT WITH LIMITED 
MOISTURE PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE 
BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND OFFERING DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD 
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW TO SHARPEN UP WITH A TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MORNING. INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO TRACK THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO SRN
CANADA TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO NW
OHIO BY 12Z FRIDAY. FORCING IS WEAK AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO
WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN FAR NW AROUND SUNRISE. SKIES
TO START OUT MAINLY CLEAR AND THEN WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER TONIGHT
WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 40S NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SPLIT FLOW WITH NRN STREAM TROF PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER LOW STAYING WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA OVER THE GULF STATES.
WEAK SFC COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH ILN/S FA FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT TO OUR NORTH...MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCES IS WEAK TO START OUT AND FURTHER WEAKENS AS THE FRONT
PASSES THRU AND UNDERGOES FRONTOLYSIS. WILL LIMIT POPS TO LOW CHANCE
POP NORTH AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
NORMAL FRIDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NW TO THE
UPPER 60S SE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. 
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN THE WAKE OF WEAK FRONT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT TO 
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE MID/UPPER 40S SE. 

THIS SFC HIGH TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY 
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS TO RANGE FROM NEAR 60 
NORTH TO NEAR 70 FAR SOUTH. SFC HIGH TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST WITH
MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL
BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN.
SATURDAY NIGHTS LOWS TO RANGE FROM UPPER 30S NE TO THE MID/UPR 40S
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND THEN CROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BECOME SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT...AND MORE INSTABILITY IS SHOWN TO DEVELOP. THEREFORE HAVE
BACKED OFF A BIT ON TIMING OF SHOWERS WHILE ADDING A CHANCE OF
THUNDER.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE AS 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP 
ON THURSDAY IN ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...BUT 
POPS ARE BELOW THRESHOLD TO APPEAR IN THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL VARY IN RELATION TO THE COLD FRONT. A SOUTHERLY 
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BEHIND THE INITIAL HIGH WILL COMBINE 
WITH SOLAR RADIATION TO BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 70S MOST 
LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS WILL SLIDE MAINLY INTO THE 60S 
ON TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE 50S AND 60S WEDNESDAY AS COLD ADVECTION 
AND CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE THEIR EFFECT. WARM ADVECTION WILL 
BRING HIGHS BACK TO THE 70S ON THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AS IT DOES...A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO OUR REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT IS
MOISTURE STARVED. AS SUCH...NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION AS IT CROSSES THE TAF SITES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR 5000 FOOT
CEILINGS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN






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