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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 291743
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
143 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A 
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION 
FRIDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY 
MORNING...AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARMING 
TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND COVER AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY SUNSET. TEMPERATURES HAVE LIKELY REACHED THEIR PEAK IN THE
NORTHWEST WHILE THERE COULD BE STILL BE A FEW DEGREE RISE IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FIRST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES SEEM
UNANIMOUS IN ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAIN SOME SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS REGARDING THE WIND AND CLOUD
FORECASTS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM (OR NEAR-CALM)
UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNRISE...THOUGH THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY PERSISTENT FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFIC CLOUD FORECAST
ELSEWHERE. COMBINING ALL THESE FACTORS TOGETHER...CONDITIONS MAY
COME TOGETHER TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR FROST IN THE
EAST-CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA (WHITEWATER VALLEY). PATCHY
FROST WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE GRIDS FOR A FAIRLY LARGE
AREA...WITH HWO MENTIONS CONTINUING. HOWEVER...OWING TO
UNCERTAINTY AND COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST
OFFICES...HEADLINE ISSUANCE WAS DEFERRED.

THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANSITION BETWEEN
DISTURBANCES...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHTLY CLEARER
CONDITIONS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STAY IN THE LOWER 40S HEADED INTO
FRIDAY.

FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE OHIO VALLEY. A SHARP MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
INTO A COMPACT CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES SSE OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PLAINS...CROSSING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...AND REACHING
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM (AS NOTED BY HEIGHT ANOMALIES) IS VERY MUCH OUT OF THE
ORDINARY...THOUGH OVERALL...THE IMPACTS FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA
WILL BE MOST NOTABLE IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES (AND NOT DUE TO ANY
SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WEATHER).

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS REQUIRED A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE...WITH A GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPERATURES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION ON ITS OWN...BUT A LARGE AREA
FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD (EAST) OF THE MID-LEVEL
LOW...ESPECIALLY AS A REGION OF UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH-CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AND THOUGH THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW IS
A LITTLE DIFFERENT FROM MODEL TO MODEL...THE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
THAT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
TO RECEIVE A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION. NORTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER GUSTY...AND WIND
GUSTS FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
20S (WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA).

AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SURFACE TO ALLOW FOR
WET SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN. HOWEVER...THIS CONTINUED EVOLUTION IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DRYING CONDITIONS AND THE LOSS OF ASCENT...WITH ALMOST ALL
APPRECIABLE QPF OUTPUT SHUNTING EAST BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. CHANGES TO THE WEATHER GRIDS WERE GENERALLY
JUST AN EVOLUTION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH A TRANSITION TO
A CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE IN THE EVENT DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW APPEARS VERY UNLIKELY.

A SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO RESULTED IN
THE EXPECTATION FOR CLOUDS REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS RESULTED IN A SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN MIN TEMPS FRIDAY
NIGHT / SATURDAY MORNING...MAKING FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS A LITTLE
MORE UNLIKELY. IN THE FACE OF CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION...GRADUALLY
CLEARING CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE LOWER 40S...15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER LOW.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR
TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ALONG A SOUTHWEST UPPER
FLOW MAY TAP A STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS.

COOL TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE 
START. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND 
NOON WITH FALLING READINGS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG COLD 
ADVECTION ON A NORTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S SATURDAY WILL 
BE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE 20S SATURDAY AND 
SUNDAY WILL PUT AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO 
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY AS WARM ADVECTION CAUSES THE 
ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD. THESE CEILINGS WILL PERSIST WELL AFTER 00Z. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHEN CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER WITH CURRENT THINKING
THAT IT WILL BE CLOSER TO 12Z. THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT THOUGH AS CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FT.
SO VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE
REMAINDER OF SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...






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