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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 301925
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
325 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID PATTERN IS BECOMING LOCKED IN ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LITTLE THREAT FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL BEYOND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOCUSED IN THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON WANING BY
EARLY TO MID EVENING. TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S
ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE BETTER CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO...BEFORE THE THREAT APPEARS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK WEEK. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AMIDST ROBUST INSTBY
/MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 1750 J/KG OWING TO SFC DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70/ AND VERY WEAK SHEAR. KILN VWP AND
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 10-15KTS
MEANING THESE UPDRAFTS WILL BEHAVE IN VERY PULSEY FASHION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WHILE AN ISOLATED
WIND GUST TO 50 MPH IS A POSSIBILITY /GIVEN DCAPE APPROACHING
1000 J/KG/ THIS WOULD ONLY OCCUR WITH THE MOST INTENSE
CORES...WHICH WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW/WEAK
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.

EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO BE LOOSELY FOCUSED DUE TO THE
ABSENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AND VARIOUS WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM
WOBBLING THROUGH THE WEAK FLOW UNDERNEATH BROAD LONGWAVE RIDGING.
MAIN THREATS OUTSIDE OF A LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE VERY
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WITH THE SLOW MOVING STORMS...OR ANY BRIEF
CELL MERGERS WHICH PROLONG THE DURATION OF INTENSE RAIN. WITH PWAT
ONLY AROUND 1.40" - RAINFALL EFFICIENCY IS NOT OVERLY HIGH AND DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD LEAD TO STORM COLLAPSE/COLD POOL
PROPAGATION WITH TIME. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S AND PERHAPS
SOME FOG LATER IN THE NIGHT...LIKELY CONFINED TO THE FOG PRONE
RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY WANE
THROUGH THE EVENING.

POTENT UPPER TROUGH SHOWN NICELY IN GOES WATER VAPOR LOOPS
EJECTING THROUGH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHEAR/ACCELERATE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-APPALACHIAN REGION OVERNIGHT AND MAY
BRUSH SOUTH-CENTRAL OHIO/NORTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT - SO LINGERED THE THREATS A LITTLE LATER
DOWN THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COMPLEX...POSITIVELY TILTED WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD WITHIN A BROAD/STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE NUMEROUS SMALL
SCALE VORTICITY MAXIMUMS FORMING WITHIN AND RETROGRADING
SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THIS HEIGHT WEAKNESS...AND DESPITE THE
SHEARED/WEAK APPEARANCE OF THESE FEATURES THERE/S ENOUGH FORCING
TO KEEP AT LEAST A SMALL /ISOLD/SCT/ THREAT FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BOTH DAYS. THIS WILL BE
AUGMENTED BY SEASONALLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. WITH SUCH
WEAK FLOW...STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WON/T MOVE MUCH BEYOND
THEIR INITIATION...WHICH ADMITTEDLY COULD BE OVER A LARGE AREA
GIVEN A LACK OF BOUNDARIES IN THE LOWEST 3KM OF THE SURFACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH 20-30% RAIN CHANCES MAINLY NEAR THE MID
LEVEL SHEAR ZONE/HEIGHT WEAKNESS WHICH ORIENTS ACROSS WCNTL/CNTL
OH PRIMARILY AND INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF SRN OH AND SERN INDIANA.
EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT DON/T EXPECT RADAR TO BE
ECHO-FREE EITHER AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NO REAL WX HAZARDS WITH
THESE STORMS /LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR SO/ AND ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN TOTALS GIVEN THE SLOW/WAYWARD MOTIONS.

EXPECT ACTIVITY TO HAVE A DIURNAL MAX/MINIMUM SO KEPT RAIN CHANCES
OUT OF THE FORECAST DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES SEEM
PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD BOTH DAYS...MIDDLE/UPPER 80S BY DAY AND
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S BY NIGHT. 

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM 
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. 

WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO TOP RIDGE AXIS AND MOVE THRU THE OHIO 
VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST 
EARLY WED AND THEN DRY THE AREA OUT AS THE S/W SHIFTS EAST. WARM 
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS ON WED IN THE MID/UPR 80S. 

MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDING EAST 
INTO GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL ACT TO 
INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF ENHANCED 
FORCING. CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD CONVECTION BUT DUE 
TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED TO 
KEEP THE FCST DRY FROM THURSDAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 
MID AND UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90 OVER THE SOUTH AND 
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...SHEARING AS IT DOES. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND SHEAR AS IT DOES. BY
MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER
THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. 

WITH WEAK FLOW AND FORCING...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z...THEN WANE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER
01Z. WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AND WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...MVFR/LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES WILL DEVELOP. THE WORST
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KLUK DUE TO RIVER FOG AND HAVE DROPPED
CONDITIONS BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS.

ON MONDAY...FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z. SCT-BKN CUMULUS/MODERATE
CUMULUS CAN BE EXPECTED THEREAFTER. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER/STORM...MAINLY NEAR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KDAY...
KCMH...AND KLCK DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN



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