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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 271749
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1249 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND MOVE EAST ON
SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WE ARE SEEING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME BREAKS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF FAR
WESTERN OHIO AND SOUTHEAST INDIANA. IN A DEVELOPING CAA
PATTERN...WOULD EXPECT ANY BREAKS TO BEGIN TO FILL BACK IN THROUGH
LATE MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUD SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE CAA...SOME CYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW...AND A BIT OF A FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES TODAY AND A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS. GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND CAA..DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO RISE ALL THAT MUCH WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...LETTING LOWS DROP
TO AROUND 20. FLOW WILL TURN SOUTH LATER FRIDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES
EAST...BUT THE WARMER AIR WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO SCOUR OUT THE
COLD AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S...SATURDAY WILL SEE THE RESULTS OF SOME SUNSHINE AND
WARMER AIR BEING USHERED IN ON SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A MINIMAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND MOISTURE BEGINS
TO STREAM INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
FROM LATER SATURDAY ONWARDS...AND WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ALLOWING FOR A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
SOME LOCATIONS. HAVE TEMPERATURES DROPPING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON MONDAY AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END BY MONDAY EVENING.

WITH THE COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE...MONDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE 
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE LONG TERM WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 
THE MIDDLE 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.  SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AGAIN BY 
TUESDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE 40S.  

THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES 
THROUGH THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  THE MODELS ARE QUITE 
DIFFERENT FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH THE ECMWF BEING MORE 
PROGRESSIVE AND BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA WHILE THE GFS 
KEEPS SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.  
WENT CLOSER TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND COOLER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR 
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO FILL IN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
CYCLONIC/CAA LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR
ACROSS INDIANA ARE PUSHING EAST SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FA ATTM. THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER OFF THE 12Z NAM
SUGGESTS THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL THEREFORE ALLOW FOR A VCSH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND A TEMPO PERIOD FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS TO THE
WEST HAVE OCCASIONALLY DROPPED TO IFR BUT THINK THIS WOULD BE
BRIEF SO WILL LIMIT RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR AT THIS POINT. WILL HANG
ON TO MVFR CIGS INTO THIS EVENING AND THEN ALLOW FOR SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BACKS AND WE START TO GET INTO SOME WAA.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL






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