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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 130826
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
426 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL STREAM FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEMS. AS USUAL...THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MESOSCALE...ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF
HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS THE REGION.

HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF FOR THE NEAR TERM AND THE
SHORT TERM. FOR TODAY...SRN STREAM S/WV OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD...SHEARING AS IT DOES. A
MODEST LOW LEVEL JET OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL MOVE WELL AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE AND WILL NOSE NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THUS
RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION FROM
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IT SILL LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
OF RAIN WILL FALL IN THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH AREA FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHERN OHIO...SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. THESE
LOCATIONS MAY SEE BETWEEN 1 AND 1.25 INCHES BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z.
THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING...
AND THE RUNOFF INTO THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL RESULT IN RISES AND
POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE
BY SATURDAY EVENING. 

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY GIVEN CLOUD COVER...RAIN...
AND WARMER AIR TRYING TO ADVECT NORTHWARD. HAVE TAKEN A CONSENSUS
ALL APPROACH OF MODELS WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FIRST MAIN WAVE OF PCPN WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE SECOND WAVE OF PCPN WILL BE THE RESULT OF A NRN
STREAM S/WV AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH THE
SHEARING ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM. PWATS
AROUND 1.30 INCHES...OR ABOUT 280 PERCENT OF NORMAL...WILL BECOME
SQUEEZED OUT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY. AGAIN...HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO FALL IN OUR SRN CWFA
WHERE THE FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY...PCPN SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM FRIDAYS AND SATURDAYS PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 1.50 ACRS THE NRN CWFA WITH 1.50 TO PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS 2.50 ACRS THE SRN CWFA. AGAIN...THIS WILL RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN CWFA ALONG WITH
CONTINUED RISES ON LOCAL RIVERS. AGREED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
SHIFT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE WARMER SIDE TONIGHT GIVEN
CLOUDS/PCPN AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. ON SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL BE
TRICKY AGAIN SINCE A FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH...SO ONCE
AGAIN TOOK A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE MODELS. THIS YIELDS HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 50S NW TO THE LOWER 60S SE. 

COLD FRONT WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING AS WELL AS
THE WIDESPREAD PCPN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...ALLOWING SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR AND
DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE AREA.

FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE
REGION. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY SOME
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT. COOLEST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH WARMER READINGS OVER THE SOUTHWEST.

ON MONDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. PRETTY DECENT WAA DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON RETURN FLOW. WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN...HIGHS
WILL PUSH INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. 

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE. THERE IS
NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL WORK INTO THE AREA ON 
TUESDAY.  ANOTHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO 
FRIDAY.  HELD OFF ON BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE REGION
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TAF PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS...AS CEILINGS
GRADUALLY GET LOWER AND THICKER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING...QUICKLY DROPPING CONDITIONS TO MVFR. POCKETS OF HEAVIER
RAIN MAY LEAD TO IFR VISIBILITIES AND SLIGHTLY LOWER CEILINGS.

BY AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VERY SATURATED...AND
WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH RAIN MAY
NOT BE STEADY THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...THE OVERALL
TREND FOR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE A
DETERIORATION...LEADING TO SOLID IFR (POSSIBLY LIFR) CONDITIONS BY
LATE FRIDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SSE TODAY...REACHING INTO THE 12-15 KNOT
RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY 
     AFTERNOON FOR OHZ070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY 
     AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY 
     AFTERNOON FOR INZ066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS






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