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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 200625
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
225 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MORE
SEASONABLE...AND THEN PRECIPITATION SPREADS OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT KEEPING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN LINGERING INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATES HAVE CENTERED ON MASSAGING OF THE SKY
GRIDS TO CAPTURE SCT-BKN CIRRUS /MORE OPAQUE FAR NRN FORECAST AREA/
AND RAPIDLY FALLING EVENING TEMPS IN AREAS SOUTH OF THIS THICKER
CIRRUS. KUYF /LONDON OHIO/ IS A RATHER EXTREME EXAMPLE UNDERNEATH
THE CENTER OF THIN/TRANSLUCENT CIRRUS AND PLUMMETED FROM 52F TO
36F IN 4 HOURS EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SEVERAL SITES IN CNTL OHIO
FOLLOWING SUIT. THIS AREA RATHER CALM WITH WEAK SWLY FLOW STILL A
FEW HOURS AWAY FROM DEVELOPING. THUS...TOOK THE 01Z ANALYSIS TEMP
GRID...AND ALLOWED SEVERAL MORE DEGREES OF DROP BEFORE STEADYING
OUT AND ALLOWING A BETTER RISE IN THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
COINCIDE WITH ARRIVAL OF THICKER MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SEEN
GATHERING OVER ILL/IN AT THIS HOUR. 20.00Z RAOB FROM KILN SAMPLED
THE VERY DRY TROPOSPHERE THAT IS SUPPORTING THE TEMP DROP...WITH
PWAT A MEASLY 0.21" AMIDST A WEAK WAA FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. 

MINOR DISTURBANCE OVER ILLINOIS AHEAD OF MORE SIGNIFICANT
NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST AND STRENGTHEN SOME AS
HEIGHTS FALL WITH OVERALL DEEPENING OF TROUGH IN EASTERN US.
RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED GROWTH/EXPANSION OF 8-9KFT ALTOSTRATUS
DECK AND EVENTUAL GENERATION OF SOME -SHRA LATER TONIGHT OVER SRN
IND/NRN KY. VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME AND
THINK RADAR WILL HAVE MORE BARK THAN BITE /MORE REFLECTIVITY SHOWN
THAN WHAT WILL BE HITTING THE GROUND/ SO KEEPING SERN INDIANA/SWRN
OH/NRN KY DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASE IN A SPRINKLE/VERY LIGHT
SHOWER THREAT ON MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WELL OFF TO THE MID ATLANTIC BY MON MORNING
AND THE TROUGH ON OUR DOORSTEP BY 12Z. AM SIDING WITH THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS WHICH DONT BRING IN PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER
12Z WITH SOME LACK OF LL MOISTURE. BETTER ISENT LIFT DOESNT GET
INTO FCST AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z...WITH THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
EXPECTED IN THE NRN FCST AREA INTO THE DAY. FOR MONDAY EVENING
INTO TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPR
TROUGH CUTTING OFF AND SLOWING DOWN OVER THE EASTERN GRT LAKES.
THIS WILL LINGER PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH AMPLE CLOUDS. AS THE PRECIPITATION TRIES
TO PULL EAST MONDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPR LOW
SO AM KEEPING CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A RETURN
OF SOME GOOD FETCH OFF WARM LAKE MI...SO HAVE ALSO ALLOWED FOR
SCATTERED/ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FAR WESTERN FCST AREA
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE FLOW BECOMES MORE DUE
NORTHERLY AND THE CHANCES DIMINISH AREA WIDE. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
WITH COMPLETELY PULLING OUT PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST...AS WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE PROGRESSION (OR LACK THEREOF) OF THE UPR LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW WITH A SHARP RIDGE OVER THE 
NATIONS MID SECTION AND A MEAN TROF OVER THE EAST COAST TO START THE 
LONG TERM PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING 
UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF TO OUR EAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES 
WEDNESDAY. FLOW AROUND THIS LOW WILL RESULT IN NORTHERLY FLOW OVER 
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH 
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO BE EAST OF 
ILN/S FA WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURG THE DAY. 
EXPECT WED/S HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW 
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 
50S SOUTH. 

UPPER LOW TO TRANSLATE INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND AT 
THE SFC BUILDING INTO THE REGION THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS 
RIDGE WILL KEEP ILN/S FA DRY WITH EMBEDDED S/W TO PASS SOUTH OF THE 
REGION FRIDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME 
MODERATION THROUGH THE WEEK. LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 30S ON WED AND THURS
NIGHTS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FROST FORMATION. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION 
IN THE GRIDS AND HWO PRODUCT.

EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH SOME 
MODERATION ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 60 
NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. 

NORTHERN PORTION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW 
OVER OHIO VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND AND ACTIVE WEATHER TO STAY WELL TO OUR 
NORTHEAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE GREAT 
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL 
NEXT SATURDAY/SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE MID 
60S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID LEVEL AS DECK WILL SEE SOME SPRINKLES DROP OUT OF IT BUT WILL
BE HARD PRESSED TO DO ANYTHING OTHER THAN LOWER THE CLOUD DECK FOR
LATER IN THE MORNING. WORST OF THE RETURNS CURRENTLY ON RADAR HAVE
PRODUCED A 10SM SHRA AT FWA FROM A 9500' DECK. DO NOT EXPECT THE
CORE OF THE UPCOMING SHOWERS TO DIRECTLY HIT ANY OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR RESULTS FROM
A MID DECK. THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED VCSH FROM TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO THE UNLIKELY NATURE OF OCCURRENCE AND OVERALL 
INSIGNIFICANCE TO AVIATION IF THEY DO OCCUR.

L/W TROUGH WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM 18-0Z TONIGHT AND WILL
INTERACT WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO PRODUCE
PRIMARILY VFR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE COULD OCCUR AT ANY TAF
SITES BUT STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF MATERIALIZING AT CMH/LCK.
REGARDLESS OF POTENTIAL SHOWER ACTIVITY...CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY FOR A PERIOD STARTING AROUND 0Z. 

A BRIEF PERIOD OF NO CIGS WILL BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THESE
SHOWERS BEFORE THE LOWER LEVEL STRATOCU DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SURFACE FRONT DUE TO STRONG CAA. 

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS







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