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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 240529
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
129 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE AN UPPER
TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
MOS LOWS LOOKED IN THE BALLPARK. TEMPERATURES MAY GET COLD ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO THE EAST OF COLUMBUS BUT THINK THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP IT PATCHY AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BUT MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE LIMITED
SO CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN IS VERY LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOS BLEND
PROVIDED A REASONABLE FIRST GUESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM TIME 
PERIOD.  WINDS PICK UP AND BECOME SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR 
TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 70S.  SOUTHERLY FLOW 
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES 
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE ALSO 
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 70S.

MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH 
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED 
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION 
EXITING THE AREA BY THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.  THERE IS SOME 
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 
ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON 
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOW 60S.  HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AND REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR 
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME MVFR FOG TONIGHT.
THIS MAY OCCUR AT KLCK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BEFORE CLOUDS
THICKEN AND TEMPERATURES CEASE FALLING. THIS MAY ALSO OCCUR NEAR
SUNRISE AT KLUK.

HIGH AND MID CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WILL BE REPLACED BY VFR
STRATOCUMULUS LATE IN THE DAY. WSW WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10
KNOTS...SWITCHING TO THE SW AND LESSENING AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY
NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS







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