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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 052118
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
418 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
THE SOUTHERN STATES TONIGHT...BRINGING DRY BUT VERY COLD
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN FOR THE NEXT WEEK...WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
IN THE WAKE OF A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW...HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOW
DEPARTING THE ILN FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST...THICK STRATOCUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED...AND IS DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST IN THE COLD ADVECTION. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
OF A DISSIPATING TREND TO THESE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT...THERE IS
SOME CONCERN THAT ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD DEVELOP
TONIGHT AS NEAR-SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL OFF CONSIDERABLY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND WINDS WILL BECOME
VERY LIGHT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A VERY SHALLOW INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...AND TEMPERATURES CWA-WIDE ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
ZERO. WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE
DIGITS...THERE IS CERTAINLY SOME POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS OR EVEN STRATUS...AS TEMPS RADIATE BEYOND THE DEWPOINT
VALUES. SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST THIS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY NEAR
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK...COVERING ONLY A SECTION OF THE
CWA. WITH CONFIDENCE NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN THIS SCENARIO...MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE KEPT IN THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SLIGHTLY
CLOUDIER CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH OWING TO SOME PERSISTENT
925MB-850MB MOISTURE.

MINIMUM TEMPS TONIGHT ARE GOING TO BE VERY COLD...AND RECORD LOWS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS. THE AIR MASS
IS ABNORMALLY COOL (THOUGH NOT EXTREME BY THE STANDARDS THIS
WINTER HAS ALREADY SET)...BUT IT IS THE GROUND CONDITIONS (LIGHT
WINDS / CLEAR SKIES / FRESH SNOW) THAT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
GET INTO RECORD-BREAKING TERRITORY. MIN TEMPS HAVE BEEN DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
TRUE WITH THE THICK SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST VALUES IN THIS AREA RANGE FROM -5
TO -8 DEGREES...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT THESE GENERALIZED VALUES
WILL NOT COVER ALL OF THE VALLEYS AND COOL SPOTS...WHERE TEMPS
WILL BE LIKELY TO DROP BELOW -10 IN SOME LOCATIONS.

HERE ARE THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOWS FOR THE THREE PRIMARY AIRPORTS.
CVG...+2 DEGREES...1960
CMH...+2 DEGREES...1901
DAY....0 DEGREES...1901

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL STILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY MORNING...WITH WARM ADVECTION OFF THE
SURFACE ONLY REALLY BEGINNING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE SWITCHING TO THE SSW...AND SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY...THE SNOW PACK AND COOL CONDITIONS ALOFT DO NOT
SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT OR RAPID WARMING FOR FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS WERE
REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND ARE NOW GENERALLY IN THE
MID 20S FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THESE FORECAST VALUES ARE
ABOVE THE RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THE THREE PRIMARY
AIRPORTS...BUT HERE ARE THE VALUES JUST FOR REFERENCE.

CVG...22 DEGREES...1920 AND 1932
CMH...18 DEGREES...1920
DAY...19 DEGREES...1920

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE SOUTHERN
STATES...VERY BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT WILL SET UP OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...PROVIDING ALMOST-ZONAL FLOW (A LITTLE MORE FROM THE WNW
THAN THE WEST). A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES...PERHAPS HAVING A MINOR IMPACT ON THE NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY. ONE SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A CONTINUED 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERN CWA ON
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE SIGNALS FOR FORCING ARE VERY WEAK...AND
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY LIMITED. HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BECOME THICKER DURING SATURDAY...FORCING THE CLOUD
FORECAST UP INTO THE 70-100 PERCENT RANGE.

OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE ONE
WITH GRADUAL WARMING ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN FACT...NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH MIN TEMPS
CLOSER TO 06Z AND A GRADUAL RISE AFTER THAT. ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS
WERE REDUCED SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY...THE ENTIRE CWA IS EXPECTED TO
CLEAR THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER AN ACTIVE BEGINNING TO MARCH...THE EXTENDED WILL BE MORE 
TRANQUIL. WEAK SYSTEMS WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE 
REGION THROUGH EARLY WEEK. ATTM...WE SHOULD SEE JUST CLOUDS FROM 
TIME TO TIME. IT WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THERMALLY IN THE 
ATMOSPHERE...BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT HIGHS/LOWS EARLY 
ON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE A GOOD SNOW 
PACK IS IN PLACE. THIS CALLS FOR USING A GENERAL BLEND OF MODELS 
WHICH HAVE HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 40S AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 
20S. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONFLUENT BY MID WEEK AND THIS WILL 
RESULT IN A SPRAWLING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY 
WEATHER. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE 
PERIOD AND SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END 
OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MEANS THAT HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 50S WITH 
SOME 60S POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS WILL DROP 
INTO THE 30S. THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DISAGREE BY THE END OF NEXT 
WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. ECMWF IS STILL TRYING TO 
EJECT UPR LVL ENERGY FROM THE SRN STREAM WHILE THE GFS WANTS TO PUSH 
A WEAK FRONT THROUGH WITH A MORE DOMINATING NW FLOW PATTERN. WILL 
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IN WAKE OF WINTER STORM LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED TAF SITES LEAVING
A MID DECK WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. IN LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN
WITH EXPECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AROUND 3500 FEET. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
A FEW AREAS ARE BELOW 3000 FEET ACRS THE NORTH BRIEFLY BUT EXPECT 
PREVAILING CONDITION TO BE VFR. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE
AROUND 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING OVERNIGHT INTO 
FRIDAY. 

NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AND THEN SOUTHERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...AR






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