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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 311041
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
641 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS ARE SUGGESTING THE 925-850 MB JET
WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND POSSIBLY MAINTAIN ITSELF
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z AS IT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. AS THIS LOW LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS...EXPECT TO SEE PCPN FILL IN ALONG THE NOSE OF IT
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THROUGH DAYBREAK. PCPN SHOULD
THEN PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING/SHIFTING
OFF TO THE EAST AS THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS LATER
THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY REMAINS FAIRLY
MARGINAL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SO THINK PCPN WILL GENERALLY BE
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO A MINIMUM DESPITE THE HIGH PWS IN THE 2 TO
2.25 INCH RANGE. WILL BANK ON CLOUDS HANGING IN FAIRLY TOUGH
THROUGH THE DAY TO KEEP TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BETTER FORCING WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON
MONDAY...BUT EXPECT ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL AGAIN
BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON SKY COVER. RIGHT NOW WILL STICK CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FCST PERIOD BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH AREA. HAVE BUMPED 
POPS UP A BIT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND CONSENSUS OF TIMING. CUT BACK 
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING OUT OF CWA AND HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. RIDGE WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY 
FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY APPEARS TO 
PROVIDE AXIS OF MOISTURE WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG IT. HAVE 
KEPT POPS LOW FOR NOW WITH CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ON TIMING AND 
COVERAGE. THIS SETS UP MORE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE END OF 
THE WEEK WITH APPROACHING FRONT BY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN 
FOR NOW. 

TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOLEST AIR
ON WED BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. MORE HEAT LATE WEEK WITH TEMPS AT
OR APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WAVES OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE FINALLY DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY IN AREAL COVERAGE.
WHILE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE COVERAGE WILL BE
EXTREMELY LOW SO THUNDER NOT INCLUDED IN THE MORNING PORTION OF
THE TAF. CIGS AND VSBY WILL IMPROVE VERY SLOWLY THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
THE LOW AND VERY MINOR DAYTIME HEATING DUE TO SLOW EROSION OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA DURING DAY. THUS HAVE CONTINUED WITH A VCTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER A LACK OF A TRIGGER MAY MAKE
IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM AND WE MAY END UP WITH
JUST SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS. 

FOR TONIGHT MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE
EVENING LEAVING ONLY SOME MID CLOUDS TO DEAL WITH. THE COMBINATION
OF THE HIGHER CLOUDS, MOISTURE FROM THE EARLIER PCPN AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD CREATE FAVORABLE CONDS FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO FORM
MONDAY MORNING. HAVE BEGUN TO INTRODUCE A LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS
IN THE FORECAST AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE FOLLOW UP
FORECASTS LOWER THESE CONDS TO IFR.

SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...HAYDU






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