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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 292020
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
420 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAIN FOR
THURSDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF SC ASSOCIATED WITH H5 S/W AND H8 CAA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR PUSH IT JUST PAST
THE OHIO RIVER BEFORE STALLING OUT. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND H5
RIDGING BUILDS IN AFT 06Z...EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO ERODE FROM THE
SW....WITH CLEARING MAKING IT INTO THE CVG TRI-STATE REGION AFTER
06Z. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 30S TO ALLOW PATCHY FROST TO FOG. WAS TOSSING AROUND THE IDEA
OF ISSUING A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CVG TRI-STATE...BUT THE
OFFICES TO WEST WHICH WILL CLEAR OUT SOONER ARE HOLDING OFF...SO
DONT WANT TO STAND OUT AND BE METEOROLOGICALLY INCONSISTENT. WILL
MENTION PATCHY FROST IN THE SW. ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF...EXPECT
THE CLOUDS TO LINGER WHICH WILL PREVENT FROST FROM FORMING.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 30S TONIGHT...WITH THE UPPER 30S
IN THE SE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP SCATTER OUT ANY LINGERING SC. HOWEVER
ANOTHER H5 S/W DROPPING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS IN
FROM THE WEST. 

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND COLD FRONT WILL WORK TOWARDS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SFC CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WILL
INCREASE...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE
WESTERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. 

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A DIGGING H5 S/W WHICH CUTS OFF OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA FOR FRIDAY.
ADDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EXTREME
SE WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD POSSIBLY HELP CREATE AN
ISOLATED BOLT OR THUNDER.

AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS S OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR
WILL FILTER IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. 1000-850 CRITICAL
THICKNESS DROPS ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO MIX WITH THE RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
RIGHT NOW...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL MANAGE TO WORK BACK INTO THE 50S TOMORROW AS THE
HIGH PASSES OVER. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

ON FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE FA. IT IS LOOKING LIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE NW  WONT JUMP TOO
MUCH BEFORE BEGINNING TO FALL BACK DURING THE AFTN. ELSEWHERE THE
DIURNAL TRACE WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TRACE WAS STILL NECESSARY.

NLY WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY. UPPED THE GUSTS
TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. TEMPERATURES IN SE COULD DROP BELOW
FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT PCPN SHOULD HAVE ENDING BEFORE THAT
OCCURS. IT IS A LITTLE EARLY TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH. IN THE
E...LINGERING PCPN ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS AND WIND WILL KEEP LOWS
IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STARTS OUT WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ATOP THE OHIO 
VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. ARE COMBINING TO CREATE STRONG NORTH WINDS THAT
WILL PULL COLD AIR OVER THE REGION...HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 40S AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE THEY END FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLDER THAN SATURDAY 
MORNING WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA AT 12Z. 
GUIDANCE WOULD HAVE HAD ME RAISE THE READINGS THAT WERE IN THE 25-28 
DEG RANGE FOR THIS TIME FRAME. I WAS HESITANT TO FORECAST A RISE IN 
TEMPERATURES AND DECIDED TO KEEP THE PREVIOUS COOLER FORECAST IN 
PLAY FOR ANOTHER DAY.  SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS 
EAST RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP STARTING TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND 
THAT WILL PUT READINGS MORE TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES...SLIGHTLY WARMER 
ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. 

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. MODELS 
DIVERGE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. INITIAL FORECAST HAD THE 
FRONT CROSS EARLY TUESDAY AND HAVE DRY WEATHER OVER THE NORTHERN 
OHIO VALLEY. LATEST EUROPEAN MODEL COMES THROUGH WITH AN ELONGATED 
NE-SW TROUGH WITH A MID LEVEL STRONG SHORTWAVE RIDING NORTHEAST 
ALONG IT ON WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST BLENDED THE TWO WITH AN INITIAL 
NOD TO THE GFS. FEEL THAT THIS MAY NEED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WETTER 
AND MORE DYNAMIC EURO MODEL SOLUTION IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
 


&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD. THESE CEILINGS WILL PERSIST WELL AFTER 00Z. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHEN CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER WITH CURRENT THINKING
THAT IT WILL BE CLOSER TO 12Z. THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT THOUGH AS CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FT.
SO VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE
REMAINDER OF SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...







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