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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 130516
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
116 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL STREAM FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RIDGING FROM HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW YORK STATE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUDS ARE LOWERING AND THICKENING OUT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION. RAIN COULD START
TO AFFECT AREAS SOUTHWEST OF CINCINNATI TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FORECAST
LOWS CLOSE TO GFS MOS RANGING FROM MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING. STEADIER
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. BUT HEADING
OVERNIGHT THIS WILL SHIFT A BIT FURTHER NORTH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
AXIS OF STRONGER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY
TAKING THE RAIN WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN PARTICULARLY FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY
SATURATED HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH THERE.

RAIN AND CLOUDS SHOULD LEAD TO A NARROWED DIURNAL RANGE. SO LEANED
TOWARDS COOLER MOS ON FRIDAY AND WARMER MOS FRIDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER GFS MOS TEMPERATURES SEEMED REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM 
PERIOD.  SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BY MONDAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES 
TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED 
TO BE IN THE 60S.  

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.   THERE ARE STILL SOME 
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE.  THERE IS 
NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE LIMITED 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL WORK INTO THE AREA ON 
TUESDAY.  ANOTHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO 
FRIDAY.  HELD OFF ON BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE REGION
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TAF PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS...AS CEILINGS
GRADUALLY GET LOWER AND THICKER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING...QUICKLY DROPPING CONDITIONS TO MVFR. POCKETS OF HEAVIER
RAIN MAY LEAD TO IFR VISIBILITIES AND SLIGHTLY LOWER CEILINGS.

BY AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VERY SATURATED...AND
WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH RAIN MAY
NOT BE STEADY THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...THE OVERALL
TREND FOR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE A
DETERIORATION...LEADING TO SOLID IFR (POSSIBLY LIFR) CONDITIONS BY
LATE FRIDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SSE TODAY...REACHING INTO THE 12-15 KNOT
RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY 
     AFTERNOON FOR OHZ070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY 
     AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY 
     AFTERNOON FOR INZ066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS






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