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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 241714
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1214 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. COLDER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM NW-SE TODAY EVEN AS MUCH
OF CENTRAL OHIO STAYS UNDERNEATH A STRATUS DECK FOR THE BETTER
PART OF THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW COVER OVER SOUTHEAST CWA HAD ME CUT
HIGH TEMPERATURES HERE BY 5-7 DEGREES TODAY. KEPT THE REST OF THE
FORECAST GENERALLY THE SAME WRT MAX TEMPS AS MUCH OF THE REGION
WILL SEE A GOOD BIT OF SUN BEFORE IT CLOUDS BACK UP. 

THE SHORT TERM MODELS WERE BECOMING MORE SPARING WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS THIS LATE DAY AND EVENING OVER CENTRAL
OHIO. WENT WITH THIS GUIDANCE AND REMOVED LOW CHANCE POPS AND
THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE TODAY. ESPECIALLY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
COMING IN OVERNIGHT...DID NOT WANT A LOW CHANCE MENTION OF SNOW IN
THE FORECAST TO CAUSE ANY CONFUSION. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FLURRY BUT
GIVEN THE NATURE OF TONIGHTS EVENT THOUGHT IT BEST TO KEEP TODAY
WEATHER-FREE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE WILL AMPLIFY AS IT DROPS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
MODELS TRENDING TOWARDS MORE DIGGING WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL
THEN SWING EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS...THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW IS TRACKING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
CYCLES.

PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVELS WILL WARM ENOUGH
FOR MOST AREA TO START AS RAIN ON SUNDAY. EXCEPTION IS WEST
CENTRAL OHIO WHERE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOSTLY IF NOT ENTIRELY BE
SNOW. RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH THE REST OF THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING.
THERE SHOULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-70 WHERE CHANGE OVER WILL BE EARLY ENOUGH TO COINCIDE WITH
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. 

MODELS HAVE YET TO LOCK IN ON THE STRENGTH AND THUS EXACT TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM. SO THERE IS POSITIONAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. IN ADDITION THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS WHICH IF ONLY
SLIGHTLY COLDER COULD RESULT IN MORE SNOW FURTHER SOUTH. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SNOW FROM THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM
LINGERING IN EASTERN COUNTIES INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEN THERE
WILL BE A DECREASE IN CLOUDS.

WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING IN HAVE GONE BELOW MOS FOR HIGHS
SUNDAY...PREFERRING A BLEND OF MODEL 2 METER TEMPERATURES. THEN
RATHER COLD AIR WILL GET DRAWN IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. SO
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH MAY
BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW. PRETTY DECENT MODEL SPREAD WITH THIS
AND THUS HAVE STAYED WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY. THEN LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE A
PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE DEPENDING ON
HOW MUCH WARM AIR CAN GET DRAWN IN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER
HIGH WILL START TO BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A WARMING
TREND UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THEN READINGS WILL BE BACK
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER DECK OF MVFR CIGS WILL SKIRT NORTHERN TAF SITES AND COULD
GO AS FAR SOUTH AS KILN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DECK WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AND ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL COME IN OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH A GRADUAL LOWERING OF THE MID CLOUD DECK THAT WILL STREAM IN
TONIGHT. RAIN WILL START THE DAY TOMORROW AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
AFFECT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z...POSSIBLY AT THE TAIL END OF
THE VALID TAF PERIOD. MORE WX WILL OCCUR IN THE 18-0Z TIME FRAME
AND HAVE A RAIN-SNOW CHANGEOVER WHICH WILL ALSO NEGATIVELY AFFECT
CIGS AND VSBYS. 

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK









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