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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 170529
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
129 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY 
AS IT SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. MILDER AIR WILL RETURN AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS RETREATING HIGH. SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE FORECAST TONIGHT...WITH A
FROST ADVISORY REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR THE AREAS WHERE THE
FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM IS ACTIVE. 18Z MODEL RUNS AND HOURLY UPDATES
FROM RAP/HRRR MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING TEMPERATURES WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES IN EITHER DIRECTION FROM THE CURRENT
FORECAST...WITH THE RAP GENERALLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER...BUT THE
HRRR/NAM ARE SHOWING ISOLATED AREAS DROPPING AS LOW AS THE UPPER
20S. THE DRY AIR MASS MIGHT OTHERWISE SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD
CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER 30S...BUT WITH SOME WIND REMAINING IN
PLACE AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...THE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS ARE NOT PERFECT. SOME SKY GRID ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
FOCUS SOME DETAIL ON THE MAIN BANDS OF CIRRUS. OTHERWISE...GRIDS
WERE UPDATED FOR TRENDS AND PUBLISHED.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION >
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF TO 
THE EAST BECOMING CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. A 
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ON THE BACK 
SIDE OF THIS RETREATING SFC HIGH. SKIES WILL START OUT MAINLY CLEAR 
THIS EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. 
QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND WHETHER WIND/CLOUDS WILL MITIGATE FROST 
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. EXPECT THAT SOME FROST WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY 
IN PROTECTED AREAS. WILL CONTINUE FROST ADVISORY ACRS THE SOUTH 
WHERE THE SEASON HAS STARTED. HAVE TAKEN FROST MENTION OUT OF
WEST CENTRAL OHIO WHERE WINDS PICK UP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING
GRADIENT. LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NE TO THE MID
30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN RETREATING SFC HIGH 
PRESSURE AND WEAK COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. THIS SRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW 
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE TO READINGS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON 
THURSDAY. EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAINLY EARLY
AND THEN DECREASING AS THE OHIO VALLEY GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NE TO THE UPPER 60S SW.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES TO PHASE TO OUR WEST WITH A LONG WAVE TROF AXIS 
PIVOTING THRU THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME 
INCREASE IN CLOUDS THICKEST ACRS THE WEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH 
SOME WIND AROUND 5 KTS AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECT THURSDAY NIGHTS 
LOWS TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...RANGING FROM NEAR 40 NE TO THE LOWER/MID
40S SW.

WEAK SFC COLD FRONT TO PIVOT EAST THRU ILN/S FA FRIDAY/FRIDAY 
EVENING. MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING MOISTURE/TIMING WITH 
THIS WEAK FRONT. MAIN SFC LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND FORCING IS VERY 
WEAK OVER ILN/S FA. WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS TO CHC IN THE WEST 
FRIDAY AFTN AND THEN ONLY ALLOW SLIGHT CHC IN THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE FRIDAY. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE MID 40S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION MONDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THE FRONT...BUT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
EXIST...WITH GFS FASTER AND ECMWF OFFERING A SLOWER SOLUTION.
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS AND WENT WITH A MODEL
BLEND...WHICH YIELDS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH MODELS SHOWING SCANT INSTABILITY AND RATHER WEAK WIND
FIELDS ALONG THE FRONT...DECIDED TO OMIT THUNDER. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A BIT COOL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 
FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DUE TO A MODEST AMOUNT 
OF WARM ADVECTION...HIGHS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE 
ANTICIPATED TO AVERAGE IN THE NEAR NORMAL MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OUR AREA WILL BE IN RETURN FLOW THROUGH TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT TO SEE PRIMARILY JUST
SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ077>082-088.
KY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...JGL






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