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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 282022
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
422 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING A WEAK WARM FRONT
TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH SERIES OF UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN WILL DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT.
CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. BUT SOME MID CLOUDS
MAY SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST. RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW
LOWS TO FALL TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EXCEPT IN THE TRI-STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL EXTEND FROM
EASTERN INDIANA INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FOCUS FOR A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WARRANTS ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. BOUNDARY WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT BUT MINIMAL INSTABILITY DUE TO LOSS
OF HEATING AND WEAK FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN NO ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT.

SHORT WAVE WILL DECREASE IN AMPLITUDE AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE GULF AND
HEAD TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE
TAIL END OF THE NORTHERN SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN SOME CONVECTION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. BUT BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE WILL COME ON SATURDAY NIGHT
DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF BOTH SYSTEMS. 

THE PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A RETURN TO HUMID AND VERY
WARM CONDITIONS. GENERALLY FAVORED WARMER MOS TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY SIMILARLY AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. 
THEREAFTER...THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND 
OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A HEAVIER WEIGHT TOWARD 
WPC GUIDANCE GIVEN THE STARK DIFFERENCES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS 
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. 

ON SUNDAY...S/WV WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY WHILE S/WV OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES 
NORTHEAST ALONG THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A 
GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD 
DOWN BY CLOUDS AND PCPN...WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER S/WV IS FORECAST TO SKIM BY 
TO OUR SOUTHEAST WHILE STRONGER ENERGY AND A COLD FRONT PUSH EAST 
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL 
CONTINUE. WE WILL BE IN A RELATIVE LULL...BUT WITH INSTABILITY AND 
MOISTURE WILL HOLD ON TO A 30 POP REGION WIDE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS ARE IN 
AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST TIME. S/WV ENERGY IS FORECAST TO PUSH 
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST 
CANADA. THIS SHOULD NUDGE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON 
TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODELS DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH AND 
TIMING OF S/WV COMING OUT OF THE PAC NW INTO EITHER THE NRN PLAINS 
OR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE ECMWF IS MORE NORTH AND MUTED WITH THIS 
ENERGY. THIS SOLUTION HANGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION AND 
EVENTUALLY PUSHES IT BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY AS 
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ONCE AGAIN. 
THE GFS IS STRONGER AND MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE S/WV ENERGY 
WHICH RESULTS IN A COLD FRONTAL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY 
INTO THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE. HAVE SIDED MORE 
WITH THE GFS ATTM WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH WPC GUIDANCE. 
HOWEVER...GIVEN SUCH BIG DIFFERENCES...ADJUSTMENTS WILL HAVE TO BE 
MADE WITH LATER FORECASTS IN HOPES THE MODELS COME MORE INTO 
AGREEMENT. 

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL 
NORMALS WITH LOWS AVERAGING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. 

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF CU DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ACROSS NRN OH. SOME CIGS
ARE DOWN TO THE MVFR RANGE. LUCKILY IT SET UP JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE NRN TAFS. EXPECTED SCT CU THRU THE AFTN FOR THE NRN BEFORE IT
STARTS TO DISSIPATE TOWARDS SUNSET. ACROSS NRN KY THE MORNING
STRATUS HAS FINALLY LIFTED TO CU. IT TOO IS ONLY PROVIDING
SCATTERED CLOUDS TO CVG/LUK.

OVERNIGHT THE SFC HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
AND THE SFC WINDS WILL TURN MORE TO THE SE BY MORNING. THIS IS
TYPICALLY A GOOD WINDS DIRECTION FOR DENSE FOG AT KLUK. THE LACK
OF FOG LAST NIGHT AT KLUK HAS ME A LITTLE CONCERNED...BUT DID TAKE
VSBYS DOWN TO A MILE IN FOG FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE.

BUILDING H5 RIDGE ON FRIDAY WILL KEEP THE TAFS DRY. TOYED WITH
MENTIONING SOME SCT CU IN THE SRN TAFS FRIDAY AFTN...BUT FELT IT
WASNT WORTH ANOTHER GROUP AT THIS TIME.



OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES






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