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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 192004
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
404 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME
REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA WILL START TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW LIGHT WINDS TO VEER. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOISTURE
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOPING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATE. LOWS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOST MODELS INDICATE THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING SATURDAY MORNING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-71. GIVEN THIS AGREEMENT HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THAT AREA. OTHERWISE THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY. INSTABILITY IS RATHER
LIMITED AND FORCING NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG OVERNIGHT. SO EXPECT
PREDOMINANTLY SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF EMBEDDED THUNDER.
STILL NOT CLEAR HOW EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE. BUT
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH
LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHEAST. SOME INSTABILITY DOES
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND A STRONGER SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH. SO BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER EXISTS ON SUNDAY
ALTHOUGH THAT WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT. PREFERRED
WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS. THEREAFTER USED A
MOS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES. 

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST AT THE START OF 
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND 
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  HIGH 
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE 
FA WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT.  
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH 
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SPOTTY DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE
TOWARD SUNSET. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BUT DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SOME
LIGHT SURFACE FLOW AND POSSIBLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE...SHOULD
HELP LIMIT BR DEVELOPMENT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OR SPRINKLES TOWARD
DAYBREAK...POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY.
CHANCE APPEARS LOW ENOUGH THOUGH TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE
TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL






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