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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 230529
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
129 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TRAVELING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STRONG NW WINDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS EVENING AS COLD
ADVECTION ON THE E SIDE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE KEEP THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT. WIND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END
OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER IN STRENGTH.

AS FOR CLOUD COVER...PATCHES OF CI CONTINUE TO SLIP SE ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE QUICK H5 FLOW. MEANWHILE SC DROPPING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD POOL IS DROPPING DOWN THRU NRN OHIO AND INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OHIO. THIS AREA OF SC SHOULD MOVE E BY MIDNIGHT LEAVING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS. THOUGH NORTH WINDS
OF 5 TO 15 MPH SHOULD MITIGATE THE WIDESPREAD FORMATION OF
FROST...PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE THE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT TO TENDER VEGETATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT. KEPT
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SHOWERS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY. TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF...SLOWED DOWN
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SUCH THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY
OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM FRIDAY.

THE COOL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S MOST LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY. WARM ADVECTION
ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH WILL BRING READINGS BACK UP TO
AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT TRAILING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE 
BISECTING THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM 
AND ECMWF CAME IN SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL 
PASSAGE...WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM THE SREF ENSEMBLE. DID NOT BITE 
INTO THIS SOLUTION COMPLETELY...BUT DID ALLOW SOME CHANCE POPS TO 
LINGER IN THE SCIOTO VALLEY THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. BEHIND THE 
FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS 
WITH DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MIXING EXPECTED. THERE IS NOT STRONG COLD 
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A 
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH FRIDAY 
NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOISTURE 
STARVED. BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES...BUT 
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN 
COUNTIES. THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND 
COOLER TEMPERATURES (ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH) AS HIGH PRESSURE 
EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIATION FOR THE LATTER 
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. OF NOTE...THE STEADIER 
EUROPEAN SOLUTION SHIFTED ITS MASS FIELDS A GOOD BIT WITH THE 12Z 
CYCLE. THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF 
SEVERAL CLOSED LOWS ALOFT. ONE IS PROJECTED TO FORM EAST OF THE 
ROCKIES...WHILE THE OTHER EVOLVES FROM OUR FRIDAY SYSTEM OVER 
SOUTHEAST CANADA. AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DEVELOP 
BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS...ALTHOUGH ITS POSITION HAS BEEN WAVERING AND 
OF COURSE THIS COULD AFFECT OUR LOCAL WEATHER. ONLY MINOR 
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THROUGH THE 
PERIOD...WITH COOLER AIR EXPECTED TO WIN OUT AT THIS TIME. 
HOWEVER ITS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE QUITE A GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES 
ACROSS THE AREA. SKY COVER WAS INCREASED...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE MAINLY 
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AT TIMES. WHILE POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED 
A LITTLE...DID NOT GO TOO HIGH DUE TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT 
UNCERTAINTIES. NOT TO MENTION...MID LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THE LOWS 
MAY ASSERT ITSELF ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL 
INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE VERTICALLY STACK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
SLOWLY GETS CLOSER TO OUR AREA. ALSO INCLUDED THUNDER TUESDAY DUE TO 
INCREASED DYNAMICS AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT INSTABILITY COULD BE 
DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA...BUT DID NOT GET FANCY TRYING TO 
DELINEATE WHERE THIS MAY SET UP. THUNDER MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO 
MONDAY FOR LATER FORECAST CYCLES DEPENDING ON HOW THE POSSIBLE WARM 
SECTOR EVOLVES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW
STRATOCUMULUS COULD STILL BRUSH BY KCMH EARLY AND THEN FEW TO
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AREA
WIDE. CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING BUT HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD IN LATE. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
10 KT UNTIL AROUND 00Z. THEN WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VEER
AROUND TO NORTHEAST OR EAST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...






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