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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 011815
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
215 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH THROUGH THIS TIME
AS WELL. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BETTER FORCING WILL WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE MODELS HOWEVER AS TO HOW
FAST THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO OUR AREA. BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND CMC
REMAIN SLOWER WITH THEIR TIMING COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS AND NAM.
WILL STICK WITH FORECAST PERSISTENCE WHICH IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO A
BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...SPREADING CATEGORICAL POPS DOWN
ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR FA THROUGH DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING...TAPERING DOWN TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN SAG SOUTH ACROSS
THE REST OF OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MORE ROBUST HEIGHT RISES IN THE OH VALLEY ON THURSDAY AS ENERGY
FALLS INTO THE NWRN CONUS AND A STRETCHED OUT POSITIVE TILT TROUGH
BECOMES APPARENT FROM THE PAC NW INTO CNTL CANADA. AS RIBBON OF
HIGHER PWAT TO OUR SOUTH/WEST RETURNS NORTHWARD AS WELL AND BEGINS
TO BE IMPINGED ON BY A LITTLE STRONGER SWLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW.
THUS...HAVE 20-35% RAIN CHANCES DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS
THE SOUTH/WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURS AND CONT INTO
THURS NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AGAIN...NOT A GREAT DEAL OF SYNOPTIC
FORCING HERE...BUT AREA GETTING GRAZED BY ERN FRINGE OF MORE
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO AREAS TO OUR WEST. CAN/T RULE
OUT SOME SCT STORMS...OR A ROGUE MCS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND
MOVING INTO IND/OH THURS/THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY IN THIS PATTERN.
MESOSCALE DETAILS LACKING IN THE COARSE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC
FCSTS AT THIS POINT. DO FEEL COMFORTABLE IN GETTING DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS THURS/FRI WITH DWPTS
REMAINING WELL INTO THE 60S. WILL FEEL A LITTLE UNCOMFORTABLE FOR
EARLY SEPT BUT NOT AT ALL UNCOMMON. MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY
WED/THU/FRI...BUT AS WE'VE SEEN JUST ABOUT ALL OF AUGUST...IT/S
SELDOM WE GET BY WITHOUT A FEW STORMS SOMEWHERE AT PEAK HEATING IN
THESE PATTERNS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...FINALLY SOME APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS ATTEMPT TO 
BEAT DOWN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS THE NRN TIER FLOW BECOMES MORE 
PROGRESSIVE. AM HESITANT TO BELIEVE IT WILL HAPPEN AS QUICKLY AS 
DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE IT HAPPENING...SO HAVE ERRED WARMER ON 
SATURDAY TEMPS AHEAD OF DECENT COLD FRONT SHIFTING THRU GREAT LAKES. 
HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY/SAT EVE GIVEN ABOVE 
NORMAL PWAT AND WHAT SEEMS TO BE GOOD FORCING/FRONTAL CONVERGENCE 
SHIFTING THROUGH. FOR SUNDAY...WILL LINGER A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN 
THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING...BUT IF PATTERN SLOWS DOWN EVEN A LITTLE 
THE FRONT MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN OUR SOUTH.  AND LOOKING BEYOND 
DAY 7...JUST NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PUSH WHEN IT 
SEEMS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE /IN TIME/ WILL BUILD BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT 
WEEK /DAY 8 OR 9/ SO ANY RESPITE FROM MUGGY/WARM TEMPS MAY BE 
SHORT-LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A LULL OR DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE
MORNING ON TUESDAY. TIMED IN TSRA FOR A FEW HOURS AT THE TAF SITES
ON TUESDAY DURING THE MOST PROBABLE TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING THE TAF SITES. EXPECT VSBYS TO BE REDUCED WITH SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...JDR






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