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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 010550
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
150 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DISSIPATING A LITTLE QUICKER THAN IN THE
PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS...POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD HAVE BEEN
SCALED BACK FAIRLY QUICKLY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
KEPT IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING.

CLOUDS OVER THE REGION ARE ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY DEBRIS FROM PREVIOUS
CONVECTION...WITH AN EXPECTATION OF CONTINUED CLEARING. SKY GRIDS
WERE REDUCED SLIGHTLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHILE DEWPOINTS
(BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS) WERE SLIGHTLY INCREASED. THIS DOES SEEM
TO SUPPORT A LITTLE MORE POTENTIAL FOR FOG...SO PATCHY FOG WAS
INCLUDED FOR ALL LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA IN THE FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FUNNEL CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS TYPE OF FUNNEL CLOUD IS TYPICALLY SHORT
LIVED AND VERY RARELY TOUCH DOWN. THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS OF
THESE FUNNELS IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG DAMAGING TORNADOES. ON
THE RARE OCCASION THAT THESE FUNNELS DO TOUCH THE
GROUND...LITTLE...IF ANY DAMAGE OCCURS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE AREA SOME CLOUD COVER
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO EXIT THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL
ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER PRIMARILY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WITH
UPPER LOW AND DECENT CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO BUILD A 
LTL EAST AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FROM THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT 
WEEKEND. 

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM 
WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL ACT 
TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO A LACK OF 
ENHANCED FORCING. FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND... CAN 
NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLD CONVECTION BUT DUE TO LIMITED 
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY EXCEPT 
FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS FRI AFTN.

S/W MOVING THRU THE NRN TIER OF STATES PUSHES INTO GREAT LAKES BY 
NEXT TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE NRN PORTION OF THE 
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE WITH SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OHIO 
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AT THIS TIME FRAME WITH TIMING 
DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLNS. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS MONDAY 
AFTN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIP NEXT 
TUESDAY.  

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE  
UPPER 80S. A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY HIT 90...ESPECIALLY OVER THE 
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AFTER YESTERDAYS CONVECTION...BUT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. WITH NEAR CALM WINDS...EXPECT FOG TO
AFFECT THE TAFS EARLY THIS MORNING. WENT WITH AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS
AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TYPICAL
LOCATIONS.

TAFS REMAIN UNDER THE SAME REGIME AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO EXPECT
BKN CU TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION.
FEEL THAT THE CHANCE FOR A STORM TO HIT A TAF IS LOW ENUF TO LEAVE
OUT OF THE TAFS.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIES OUT SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND THE CIGS SHOULD
GO SCATTERED.


OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES



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