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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 262154
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
454 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FRIDAY AND MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A WARMING
TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
STRATUS ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS SLOWLY ERODING
AS HIGH AND MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER DROPPING THROUGH
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SPREAD INTO THE REGION. SO THERE COULD
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA. THE CLIPPER WILL TURN EAST
OVER TENNESSEE. THIS WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE FORECAST
AREA DRY. HOWEVER COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY DRAW LOWER CLOUDS BACK ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BEFORE
DAYBREAK. FORECAST LOWS ARE CLOSE TO WARMER GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THIS
WILL ENHANCE ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GET
SOME FLURRIES DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. SOMEWHAT
ENHANCED MOISTURE PLUME BRIEFLY COMING OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN COULD
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
BUT ONLY FELT THIS WARRANTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH FLURRIES
BEING MORE PREDOMINANT. 

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE VARIABLE AS THE
LOWER DECK DISSIPATES THURSDAY NIGHT. BUT AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS
WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE HIGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR FRIDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES STAYED GENERALLY WITHIN THE MOS
ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF DRY.  WWA WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES 
TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON SATURDAY.  A WEAK 
DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE 
INTO THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND.  AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO 
SUNDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE.  COLDER AIR WILL 
WORK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A 
CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS.  
HAVE TEMPERATURES DROPPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY AS 
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.  PRECIPITATION COMES TO 
AN END BY MONDAY EVENING.  

WITH THE COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE...MONDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE 
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE LONG TERM WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 
THE MIDDLE 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.  SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AGAIN BY 
TUESDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE 40S.  

THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES 
THROUGH THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  THE MODELS ARE QUITE 
DIFFERENT FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH THE ECMWF BEING MORE 
PROGRESSIVE AND BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA WHILE THE GFS 
KEEPS SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.  
WENT CLOSER TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND COOLER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR 
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SOLID MVFR STRATUS DECK IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IT HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME SMALL SIGNS OF
EROSION ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF IT ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA
AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. THIS AREA MAY
CONTINUE TO TRANSITION MORE TO A SC/CU FIELD THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY AND IF THIS OCCURS...WE COULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING. THE BEST SHOT OF THIS WOULD APPEAR TO BE AT KCVG/KLUK
AND WILL TRY TO SCATTER THEM OUT FOR A PERIOD EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE 925 MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME NORTHERLY AND
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ASSUMING THERE IS
STILL SOME STRATUS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...WOULD EXPECT
STRATUS TO ADVECT BACK IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL
CONTINUE TO SIDE ON THE MORE PESSIMISTIC SIDE WITH A GENERAL MVFR
CIG FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL






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