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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 230559
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
159 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA WITH
MUCH LESS EXPECTATION OF CLEARING...AND WITH SOME FINGERS OF
CLEARING IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO LIKELY TO RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME
PATCHY FROST IN CENTRAL OHIO OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS. CONCERN IS
STILL THE SHALLOW BUT PERSISTENT CLOUDS AT THE 925 LAYER...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE RIVER ESPECIALLY EAST OF
I75 TO NOT CLEAR UNTIL VERY LATE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR RESULTING
TEMPERATURES AT THE NEXT UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...TEMPERATURES
COULD GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FROST THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THERE WILL BE TOO MANY CLOUDS.

A SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THERE WILL ONLY BE A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. SO THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
IS QUITE LOW ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LULL BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. 

LEANED TOWARDS WARMER GFS MOS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS AND COOLER NAM
MOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS. MOS BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE FOR OTHER
PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY.  THERE IS NOT A 
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE LEFT THE FORECAST 
DRY.  HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH 
THE REGION.  

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR 
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS 
THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW 
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.  THIS 
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE LOW 
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S.  

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT 
SYSTEM WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES.  THERE 
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH THE SYSTEM 
MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  HAVE PRECIPITATION 
CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF 
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS 
THE FA.  COOLER AIR WILL USHER INTO THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE 
COLD FRONT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES IS BEGINNING
TO BREAK UP THE SC THAT HAS STUBBORNLY HUNG OVER THE TAFS. A HOLE
HAS ACTUALLY DEVELOPED IN ERN OHIO AND IS WORKING WESTWARD. THIS
CLEARING WILL HELP BREAK UP THE SC. SC SHOULD BE MAINLY SCATTERED
AFT 09Z...BUT SOME 2500-3500 FT ISOLATED CIGS COULD LAST TO 15Z.

SCATTERED CI WILL AFFECT THE TAFS AFT THE SC DISSIPATES. THE CI
WILL BECOME BROKEN OVERNIGHT. 

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>044-051>053-060>062-070>072-077>079.
KY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>099.
IN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES






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