000
FXUS61 KILN 191318
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
918 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP DRY AIR OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE
OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES TODAY. IN WEAK CAA PATTERN...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 TODAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL ALLOW A
DRY AIRMASS TO RADIATE NICELY AT NIGHT AND EXHIBIT A GRADUAL
WARMING ON HIGHS EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY AFTER TODAY. THE LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WAS REMOVED AT DAYBREAK
BUT THE FLOW WILL BE TURNING BACK SOUTH ON FRIDAY IF ONLY WEAKLY.
THIS WILL MOSTLY BE NOTED IN THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND. IF THE DEWPOINTS COULD RISE TO THE MID 60S
AS HIGHS START TOPPING 90...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE THE RESULT. DID NOT FEEL THAT STRONGLY IN FAVOR OF THEM...BUT
THE POTENTIAL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. I DID NOT HOWEVER FEEL THAT THAT CHANCE EXISTED AT
DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY AND REMOVED THE CHANCE FOR STORMS AT THIS
TIME...IN FAVOR OF THE LOWER CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
INCREASE TO THE MID 60S FOR THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER
THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RISE TO THE 80S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
COULD APPROACH 90 BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT OF A BUILDING
RIDGE TO LIMIT POPS TO 20...WITH A FEW PULSE-TYPE STORMS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION DEPENDING ON HOW STRONGLY CAPPED WE ARE. BY
TUESDAY...OUR HEIGHTS BEGIN LOWERING AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES
OVER THE ROCKIES. IN ADDITION...IT SEEMS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD
BE ON THE INCREASE. THEREFORE BROUGHT POPS BACK UP TO 30 FOR
EVERYONE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE ENTIRE SATURDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD...THE THERMAL PROFILE DOES 
NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY. HIGHS WILL BE 85-90...LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S 
TO LOWER 70S...WITH FAIRLY MUGGY DEW POINTS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NR LAKE HURON WILL SETTLE SOUTH OVER LAKE
ERIE TODAY. WEAK CAA ADVECTION ALOFT WILL PUSH LAPSE RATES OVER
AND SOME SCT VFR CU SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN HOURS. CLEAR
SKIES ARE THEN EXPECTED AFT SUNSET TONIGHT. RIVER VALLEY FOG IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN AT KLUK TONIGHT...SO WENT WITH SOME TEMPO MVFR FOG
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...SITES