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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 230948
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
448 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL A LARGE SWATH OF
MOISTURE AND SHOWERS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR WILL RUSH
IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A H5 VORT MAX IS BEGINNING TO PULL
OUT TO THE N. FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO S/W ENERGY THAT WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. STRONG H8
JET NOSES IN THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING FOCUS THE LIFT. MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING THAT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS S...BUT TAPERED POPS DOWN TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

THE STRONG WAA TODAY WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREA OF CATEGORICAL POPS WILL PUSH N ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. THEN AS THE NOSE OF THE H8 JET PUSHES NORTH THE SHOWERS
WILL BECOME SCATTERED FROM S TO N.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME SPREAD WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC
LOW THAT LIFTS THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS AFFECTS THE TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE
GFS REMAINS DEEPER WITH THE LOW AND QUICKER WITH THE FRONT. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE LOW
AND TO PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THIS
SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE. NAM IS SHOWING SOME SFC INSTABILITY SO
ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH FROPA MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY AND WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S IN SE INDIANA TO AROUND 60 IN THE EXTREME E. STRONG WINDS
ALOFT WILL GET PULLED DOWN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE CAA. GUSTS
OVER 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. PCPN
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND KEPT POPS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SFC
RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
THE MID 30 AND MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
ON WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED 
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING 
SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE 
POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN 
AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER 
TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S 
NW TO NEAR 40 SE. 

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY 
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD 
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE 
LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS 
WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE 
OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY 
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL SKIM KDAY AND KCMH/KLCK WITH A BRIEF MVFR
SHOWER POSSIBLE AT KDAY BEFORE DAYBREAK. AREA MOVES ENE AND
A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION IS FOUND UNTIL ABOUT NOON
WITH MVFR CIGS. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON MAY PRECEDE
THE MAIN BODY OF HEAVIER RAIN WHICH SHOULD ENTER BEFORE NIGHTFALL.
PREVAILING RAIN WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS AND A POTENTIAL FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A DRY PUNCH NOTED TO BEGIN AT
KCVG/KLUK 4-5Z. VFR SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EXPECTED
LULL THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH DAYBREAK IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOUTH
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SEE GUSTS TO 25 AND 30KT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS







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