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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 241759
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
159 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. 
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING AS MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OUR PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE SOME
LOWER CLOUDS ALONG WITH A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS ARE PUSHING
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL WORK EAST INTO OUR
AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED THOUGH AND
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND IN THE
PCPN AS IT MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WILL GO AHEAD
AND NUDGE UP CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST A BIT BUT MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TANDEM DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS
EVENING. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
A MIX OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S EAST TO
THE UPPER 40S WEST. 

FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
LONG WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PUSH AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION. SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE MUCH FASTER WITH NEXT
PIECE OF ENERGY TO AFFECT THE REGION. HAVE ALLOWED FOR PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT. IT
LOOKS LIKE PCPN WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY. WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 70S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS STATED IN THE SHORT TERM...MODELS ARE FASTER WITH UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH ARE NOW EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. HAVE SPED UP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH POPS REMAINING IN
THE LIKELY CATEGORY. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TUESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AS PCPN SAGS SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE CLOUD AND PCPN DEPENDENT
BUT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S WEST TO THE MID 70S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREA OF LOWER VFR/MVFR CLOUDS ACROSS INDIANA HAS GENERALLY BEEN
DISSIPATING THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE
CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WILL PUSH
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY
LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z NAM IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS AND GENERALLY JUST
ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND
PUSH INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN SOME LOWER VFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. VALLEY FOG HAS BEEN RATHER PREVALENT THE LAST COUPLE OF
MORNINGS SO IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH SOME LIFR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KLUK. HAVE MAINTAINED VFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE NAM AND SREF ARE SUGGESTING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME MVFR CIGS WORKING IN WITH THE FRONT TOWARD
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN/NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL






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