Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Wilmington, OH banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KILN 221759
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
159 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY
WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS STABILIZED IN WAKE OF MCS. DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN THINNING WHICH ALLOW FOR HEATING AND AT LEAST
SOME DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HAVE
ALREADY SEEN SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
DOWNSTREAM OF LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE MCS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT BETTER CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT REMAINS ALONG THE FAR
EASTERN TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO BETTER
CHANCE OF ANY ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE THERE. WITH WEAK FORCING HAVE KEPT POPS IN CHANCE
CATEGORY. WITH LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...OPTED TO CANCEL THAT EARLY. MADE A
FEW FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON RECENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHARPENING UP THE RIDGE.
IN MUGGY AIRMASS LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NE
TO THE LOWER 70S SW.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUE TO BUILD A LTL EAST SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL HAVE THE
BETTER CHANCES. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. 
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN IN THE
SOUTHWEST NEAR 100 ON SATURDAY. 

UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE 
BUILDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH ILN/S AREA
STILL ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH...A LOW POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY. WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH HEAT INDICES 
APPROACHING 100 AGAIN IN THE SW. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
HEAT FOR SUNDAY IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY...BETTER
INSTABILITIES WILL WORK MORE EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA
TOO. HOWEVER...WITH WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS AND A CONTINUED LACK
OF FORCING...THINK ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLATED
ENOUGH TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT THROUGH MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK
AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT DOWN TOWARD OUR AREA LATE IN
THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH 
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...BEFORE A POSSIBLE COOL 
DOWN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME MVFR CEILINGS NEAR THE TAF SITES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER EARLY. HOWEVER PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MIST/FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION IT APPEARS THAT SOME STRATUS
MAY FORM WITH AREAS FROM KDAY TO KILN HAVING THE HIGHER
PROBABILITY OF GETTING THE LOWER CEILINGS. THIS IS ALL PREDICATED
ON THE IDEA OF NO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS FORMING TONIGHT.
THAT POSSIBILITY CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT THE CHANCE WAS
LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FOR NOW. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR AT ALL
LOCATIONS BY 15Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...






National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy