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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 311817
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
117 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY KEEPING CONDITIONS
DRY. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND RAIN TO THE
REGION. A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP EASTWARD TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SKIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING...THEN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS
AFTERNOON.

ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WINDS WILL BECOME SSW AND WILL BRING
WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE TEMPERATURE SHOULD PUSH INTO THE
LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NW...RISING TO THE LOWER 40S ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOCUS SHIFTS TO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND WILL STREAK NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY. 00Z MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH TAKES THE LOW A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH PULLING MORE
WARM AIR INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT OF
SNOW ACROSS THE FA RANGING FROM LESS THAN AN INCH IN NRN KENTUCKY
TO 8-10 INCHES IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

AHEAD OF THE LOW...ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING RAIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES TONIGHT...WITH LESS THAN AN
INCH POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-70.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AHEAD OF THE LOW SUNDAY CHANGING THE
PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG I-70 WHERE A
MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE AND IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO WHERE PURE SNOW IS
STILL EXPECTED. ANOTHER 3-7 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACROSS
MERCER...AUGLAIZE AND HARDIN COUNTIES. 

THE LOW WORKS EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL
WORK IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM CHANGING ALL THE PRECIPITATION
BACK TO SNOW.

THERE IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP WINTER STORM WATCH UP.
HOPEFULLY WITH ONE MORE RUN OF THE MODELS A TREND WILL BECOME CLEAR.

THE WINTER STORM WILL BE COMING TO AN END ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH 
SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE SCIOTO 
VALLEY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STRENGTHENING 
SURFACE LOW...GUSTY NNW FLOW WILL LEAD TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION 
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TONIGHT.
WITH THE WARMER AIR EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY HIGHS AROUND THE OHIO
RIVER WILL REACH AROUND 40...THE MID 30S AROUND I-70 AND THE LOWER
30S IN THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 IN THE NW
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THE TEENS ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL ONLY REBOUND
TO THE TEENS IN THE NORTH AND LOWER 20S IN THE S ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS MAY STILL PERSIST...RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE...ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES IN SNOW-COVERED AREAS TO APPROACH OR EVEN DROP BELOW
ZERO DEGREES. COMBINED WITH SOME WIND (GENERALLY INCREASING
SLIGHTLY BY 12Z)...WIND CHILLS APPEAR LIKELY TO DROP INTO ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST SPECIFICS BECOME MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN FOR TUESDAY AND 
BEYOND. QUICK WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER 
OF THE CONUS...WITH SEVERAL WEATHER DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO MOVE 
THROUGH. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT 
LAKES ON TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH 
SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE 
FRONT...TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY TO BE SOMEWHAT MILD...AND VALUES 
WERE RAISED IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...BEHIND 
THE FRONT...ANOTHER LENGTHY PERIOD OF COLD CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL 
LIKELY BE MAINLY SNOW...BUT CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS ARE FAIRLY 
SUBDUED ON ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPILL SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM.

FOR TONIGHT...ENERGY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...PERTURBING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. WELL AHEAD
OF THIS ACTIVITY...WARM...MOIST ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A
SWATH OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...WARM AIR ALOFT...AND THE DEGREE OF SATURATION/LIFT
WILL DETERMINE PRECIPITATION TYPE. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT KCVG/KLUK WITH CEILINGS MOSTLY LIKELY
REMAINING VFR. FARTHER NORTH...SATURATION AND LIFT WILL BE GREATER
AS THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD PIVOTS NORTHEAST. BASED ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS...IT LOOKS LIKE KILN WILL SEE A PERIOD OF FZRA WHILE
KDAY...KCMH...AND KLCK WILL MOST LIKELY SEE SNOW. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN COULD MIX IN AT KDAY...KCMH...AND
KLCK BUT IT IS REALLY CLOSE. IN THE MORE PROLONGED PRECIPITATION
WILL ALLOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO DROP INTO THE MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORIES FOR THE NRN TAF SITES.

ON SUNDAY...MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO DIG/SHARPEN AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AS IT MOVES EAST/NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TAF
SITES WILL LIKELY SEE A RESPITE IN THE PCPN THREAT BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z ALONG WITH CEILINGS VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...A LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING A
SWATH OF RAIN AND SNOW INTO THE REGION. IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
RAIN AT KCVG...KLUK...AND KILN FOR RAIN BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z WITH
PERHAPS PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT KDAY AND
KCMH BEFORE TURNING TO A PERIOD OF RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY FOR ALL TAF SITES
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. 

OUTLOOK...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR SUNDAY
NIGHT IN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS TO THEN LINGER INTO
MONDAY. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. 

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY 
     MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-
     070>072.
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY 
     MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...HICKMAN






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