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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 201626
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1126 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A 
WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE REGION AT MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT SNOW AND LINGERING FLURRIES OVER SOUTHEASTERN CWA HAVE ALL
BUT ENDED/EXITED THE AREA THIS MORNING. SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER
WILL SEE A LITTLE BREAK HERE OR THERE BUT BY NO MEANS CHANGE THE
OVERCAST NATURE OF THE SKY TODAY. SURFACE HIGH IS SETTLING OVER
THE REGION BUT THE TREND OF ENTRENCHED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS
TO CONTINUE TODAY AND FOR THE MONTH...EVEN WITH A DECENT HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER PARKED OVER THE IN/OH BORDER NEAR RICHMOND
TONIGHT.

LOWERED EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY BY 1-3 DEG GIVEN THE SNOW OVER THE
SOUTH AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE
RIDGING WILL OCCUR WITH MID LEVEL FLOW EVENTUALLY BACKING TO
SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
OFF WITH FLOW BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY. APPEARS THAT STUBBORN LOW
CLOUDS WILL HOLD IN FOR TONIGHT BUT THEN SCATTER ON SUNDAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BRINGING A RETURN OF CLOUDS ALTHOUGH WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY. FORCING LOOKS
NEBULOUS AND HAVE ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT. 

FORECAST LOWS ARE ABOVE MOS TONIGHT BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
A MOS BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. BUT WENT
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY BLENDING IN COOLER RAW MODEL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A STRONG APPROACHING
SYSTEM. UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT
LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL PUSH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE
ALTHOUGH THIS FAR OUT IN TIME THESE ARE NOT SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO
MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE IN FORECAST OF SENSIBLE WEATHER. 

CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS FORCING GETS
CLOSER/STRONGER. EXPECT RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONGEST LIFT MOVES
NORTHEAST. COLDER AIR COMING IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING ALTHOUGH AT THAT TIME HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION STILL
OCCURRING IS IN QUESTION. SECONDARY TROUGH ROTATING AROUND UPPER
LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY DURING THIS TIME. 

RIDGING DEVELOPS RATHER QUICKLY LATE THURSDAY AND MOVES EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD THOUGH SOME
INDICATIONS OVER SOUTHERN TAFS SHOW THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE MIGHT
POSSIBLY OVERCOME THE ENTRENCHED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. 

GIVEN THE TREND THIS MONTH...AM HESITANT TO FORECAST A CLEARING OF
MVFR CIGS EVEN WITH THE HIGH PARKED RIGHT OVER CWA AND AXIS
EXTENDING SW OVER OHIO RIVER. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE
LIGHT NATURE OF THE WINDS AND THE HIGH POSITIONING...BUT THE LOWER
CLOUDS HAVE JUST NOT BEEN ABLE TO GET SCOURED OUT AS OF LATE. 

WILL CHANGE THE OVC SKY CONDITION TO A BKN DECK LATER TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY SCATTER OUT KCVG AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. 

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH
PRECIPITATION AND WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...FRANKS







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