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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 282029
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
429 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH DIURNAL CLEARING
AND CONTINUED CAA WILL RESULT IN NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DAY/CMH RECORD LOW FOR THE 29TH IS 51...WHILE
CVG RECORD LOW IS 53. ONLY CMH NOT FORECAST TO MEET THE RECORD
ATTM. VALLEY AREAS MAY DIP BELOW 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH ALL MODELS KEEPING THE UUPR LOW OVER THE ST JOHNS BAY AREA
WITH TROUGH DOMINATING THE GT LAKES...HAVE CONTINUED DIURNAL CU
AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S. SFC FLOW
BACKS TO LIGHT WESTERLY BY OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR NOT
QUITE AS COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT STILL SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL.
HAVE GENERALLY WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN MOS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. 

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
A H5 LOW...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY
KICKS OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND ROTATE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO 
THURSDAY. FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER 
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND THE SRN STREAM H5 FLOW RUNS THRU THE DEEP 
SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT FEEL 
THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY. 

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER 
THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPENS AND SHARPENS THE TROF OVER THE FA. THE GFS 
AND ECMWF HAVE SWAPPED SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF NOW 
LINGERS THE H5 TROF DEEPER AND LONGER THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN 
A LITTLE MORE PCPN PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT 
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL 
CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY 
AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROFS LIFTS E.

BY MONDAY...THE S/W TROF HAS LIFTED NE OF THE REGION...SO LEFT 
MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE 
WEEK...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S 
ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE 
HIGHS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT EITHER SIDE OF 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.



&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR
THIS TIME. A FEW WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER DUE TO THE
LIMITED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED GUSTS DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THEREFORE DID NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR HOWEVER A BRIEF MVFR CIG CANNOT
BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...FRANKS/SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK







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