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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 281744
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1244 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
LATE IN THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE EAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARM UP OVER THE WEEKEND. ALSO...INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND THE LIKELIHOOD
FOR LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO 
MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AND BACKING
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPING WAA AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR
DROPPING DOWN ACROSS INDIANA INTO WESTERN OHIO. GIVEN THE DRY LOW
LEVELS...MOST OF THIS IS PROBABLY NOT REACHING THE GROUND. MOISTURE
REMAINS GENERALLY IN THE MID LEVELS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL
GO AHEAD AND ALLOW FOR JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES. EXPECT
HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION OVER TO A MORE ZONAL CONFIGURATION
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE RIPPLING SOUTHEAST
WITHIN THIS FLOW TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ALONG
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL RANGE FROM PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING OVERNIGHT...WE
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT EARLY...THEN BECOME STEADY OR
SHOW A SLIGHT RISE TOWARD MORNING. ON SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE THAT A MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP OUT OF THE
GULF AND WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
CLOUDS OF THE LOWER VARIETY TO INCREASE QUITE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
DAY. THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...AND WITH SOME WEAK LIFT...SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP TOWARD EVENING. ON
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTH. 

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN...A DECENT MOIST...LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
FROM THE GULF. MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THAT WITH THE WAA/LOW
LEVEL LIFT...PCPN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE BUT WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE. IN FACT...MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL BE MAINLY 850 MB AND
LOWER. DESPITE THIS...BELIEVE THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME
SATURATED...AND DESPITE SHALLOW MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
LIFT TO GENERATE LIGHT PCPN. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS AS MODELS SUGGEST THE PCPN WILL MEASURE. HAVE USED A RARITY
IN THE PUBLIC ZONES WHICH IS TO QUALIFY THE RAIN AS LIGHT INSTEAD
OF WORDING IT AS JUST RAIN. ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER DURING THIS
PERIOD IS THE CHANCE FOR VISIBILITIES TO LOWER DESPITE STIFF SOUTH
WINDS. SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO LESS
THAN 1 MILE...AND THIS COULD CONCEIVABLY HAPPEN WITH LOW CEILINGS
AND PERSISTENT LIGHT PCPN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADD
MIST/FOG SHOULD IT BECOME NECESSARY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP
SLIGHTLY IN THE EVENING THEN SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL BE MILD DESPITE OVERCAST SKIES AND LIGHT PCPN. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS IN REGARDS TO A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE TAKEN
A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF (SLIGHTLY SLOWER) AND THE 00Z GFS
(SLIGHTLY FASTER) AS A SOLUTION. FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHED
SOUTHEAST BY A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES INTO
NEW ENGLAND. INCREASING FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND A LITTLE MORE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BRING HIGHER CHANCES FOR PCPN TO THE REGION.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN AND NOW MIXED BEFORE DRIER AIR
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NON
DIURNAL.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. PCPN WILL COME TO AN
END AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE ARE QUITE A FEW MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY TIME PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE TO DISAGREE FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD. CONTINUED FORECAST THINKING FROM YESTERDAY AND
WENT CLOSE TO THE ECMWF FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  THIS 
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MAINLY A THREAT OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES REBOUND SOME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN BY THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BE
SIMILAR TO THOSE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE ARE STILL A FEW MVFR CIGS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA BUT FOR
THE MOST PART WE ARE DEALING WITH A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK THIS
AFTERNOON. A FAIR AMOUNT OF RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR...BUT
MUCH OF THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE REACHING THE GROUND. THAT BEING
SAID...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF AN IMPACT IF
ANY ON AVIATION. EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS MID
LEVEL MOISTURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ADVECT UP
INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A LOWERING OF THE CLOUD DECK WITH SOME MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE KCVG TAF...LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE
TO SATURATE WITH SOME IFR CIGS AND LOWER VSBYS LIKELY DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK...IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN/NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL






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