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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 220003
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
803 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND REMAIN
IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEK. COOLER AIR THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE
WEEK WITH BE REPLACED WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED SH RA JUST EAST OF CWA WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST. UPPER
LOW SWINGING ACROSS GREAT LAKES. CLOUDS RETURNING WITH SPOTTY -SHRA
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THIS EVENING. SMALL POPS THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. LOW TEMPS AT OR JUST
ABOVE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THRU PERIOD. SOME CU/STRATOCU IN THE
COOLER AIR FOR MONDAY. COOLEST AIR OVERHEAD MONDAY WITH TEMPS
NOT GETTING OUT OF 60S. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT
FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME UPPER 30S IN TYPICAL COOL LOCATIONS.
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY TUESDAY AS ATMOSPHERE WARMS FROM
MONDAY. MIGHT BE A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC WITH WARMING BUT NOT UNCOMMON
TO GET 30 DEGREE RISE THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOW TEMPS A BIT BELOW
GUIDANCE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE LONG TERM 
PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME MOISTURE POSSIBLY TRYING TO 
WORK UP FROM THE SOUTH HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH RIDGING 
OVERHEAD...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. AS THE AIRMASS SLOWLY 
MODIFIES...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE 
WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TO AFFECT
THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS SHUD BE VFR GENERALLY BETWEEN
3500 AND 5000 FEET. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. A SPRINKLE COULD AFFECT KCMH AND KLCK EARLY BUT
HAVE OMITTED ANY MENTION SINCE PROBABILITY IS LOW AND ANY AFFECTS
WOULD BE INSIGNIFICANT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY 
PROVIDING CLEARING SKIES AND CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PADGETT
NEAR TERM...PADGETT
SHORT TERM...HATZOS/PADGETT
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR






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