Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Wilmington, OH banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9][-10][-11][-12][-13][-14][-15][-16][-17][-18][-19][-20][-21][-22][-23][-24][-25][-26][-27][-28][-29][-30][-31][-32][-33][-34][-35]



000
FXUS61 KILN 220759
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
359 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT. OUTSIDE OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW STRATUS DECK IS OVER THE REGION WITH A NARROW CUTOFF TO CLEAR
SKIES FOUND OVER MOST OF INDIANA. THE INTERFACE BETWEEN LOW CLOUDS
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MEANDER SLOWLY EAST TODAY...AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM IN THE MIDDLE 50S.
A LIGHT SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER CENTRAL OHIO AND THE SCIOTO VALLEY. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A CALM NIGHT TO THE REGION.
COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES...A GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
IS IN THE OFFING TONIGHT AND AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS LOWS DROP TO THE MID 30S. 

LIGHT NORTH FLOW IN GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BRING A NICE FALL
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT...BUT
EASTERN CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES AND HAVE LIGHT WINDS
FOR A POTENTIAL FROST REPEAT ON FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS GENERALLY
LOCATED EAST AND SOUTH OF METRO COLUMBUS...AND FROM BROWN AND
MASON COUNTIES EASTWARD TO THE SCIOTO VALLEY. 

A BRIEF SPRINKLE MAY FALL FROM THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EARLY ON
FRIDAY...BUT THE REGION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY AND THE CHANCES
AND/OR AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS POSSIBILITY ARE BOTH SMALL. 

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EACH DAY AFTER THURSDAY WILL SEE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. 

./SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY
THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS THE AREA AND GETS ABSORBED...BUT THE 12Z
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEFINITION TO HAVE SOME
IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR
FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED AS WELL. WITH VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE...IT STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS
(ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA) WILL REMAIN DRY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...SIMILAR TO OR 
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...A MORE PRONOUNCED 
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST 
COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES 
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 925MB/850MB 
WILL COMBINE WITH FULL SUN TO LEAD TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPS...EVEN 
THOUGH THE SURFACE ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE. STAGNANT SURFACE CONDITIONS
IN A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS AN ELONGATED
NORTH-SOUTH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.

AFTER THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL 
ENTER A REGIME OF DEEPER SSW FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH 
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF 
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S VERY POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY.

AS RIDGING TURNS TO TROUGHING GOING FROM MONDAY INTO 
TUESDAY...SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGINS TO 
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE. WITH THAT SAID...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF 
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO...THOUGH 
ADMITTEDLY THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOT AS SHARP
WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL
COME INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD...REQUIRING SOME DAY
8 POPS AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED H5 LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTH DOWN THROUGH THE
APPALACHIANS. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE
EAST COAST TODAY. NORTHERLY SFC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP
SC FLOWING ACROSS THE TAFS.

CIGS ACROSS THE TAFS ARE VARIABLE ATTM. ACROSS THE WRN TAFS VFR
CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY 08Z...WITH THE ERN TAFS WHICH ARE MVFR
STAYING THERE.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY
ERODING FROM W TO E AFT 18Z. BY 00Z BACK EDGE SHOULD HAVE REACHED
CMH/LCK. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES







National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy