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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 300747
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
347 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED OFF TO OUR NORTH
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END ACROSS OUR FA FOR
THE TIME BEING. IN A CONTINUED WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN...PCPN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS WE DESTABILIZE.
HOWEVER...PCPN COVERAGE WILL PRIMARILY HINGE ON HOW FAST WE BEGIN
TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF THE COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ENERGY LIFTING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THIS WILL HAPPEN TODAY BUT MOST OF THE
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ARE SUGGESTING AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY WORKING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE GO AHEAD AND ALLOW FOR CHANCE POPS TO
SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST MAY HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT AND WILL RANGE HIGHS
FROM THE MID 80S WEST TO AROUND 90 IN THE EAST. 
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AS IT DOES...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL 
TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA...WHERE A DEVELOPING 925-850 JET
WILL NOSE IN FROM THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. FAIRLY HIGH PCPN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW PERSISTS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY GET INTO A BIT OF A LULL
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS BETTER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. AS WE DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY...SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUDS AND PCPN
SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S FOR
SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES THEN WARMING BACK UP INTO THE MID 80S
FOR MONDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE LONG 
TERM FORECAST. EACH MODEL RUN WAS SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER WITH TIMING 
AND PLACEMENT OF UPCOMING SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS. ALSO..THE GFS SEEM TOO 
FAST IN PUSHING A WARM FRONT BACK NORTHWARD MID WEEK BASED ON MID TO 
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. 

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE
OVER THE CNTRL OR SRN CWFA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST UPR LVL
DYNAMICS PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE CALL FOR AT LEAST
40 TO 50 POPS.

ON WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS MENTIONED IS EXPECTED TO STALL 
OVER THE AREA WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE A LITTLE. WILL 
CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY CNTRL AND SRN 
SECTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

LOOKS LIKE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRY TO BUILD NORTHWARD 
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/WV AND COLD FRONT 
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT THURSDAY DRY IN 
THE MOIST RETURN FLOW ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A 
POP UP SHOWER OR STORM. HAVE GONE WITH 20 AND 30 POPS ON FRIDAY 
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL 
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CURRENT STLT IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND
HI CLDS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACRS OHIO AND ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WARM FRONT. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING N AND SHOULD BE N OF MOST
OF THE TAF SITES BY 08Z LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT VFR CONDS
EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR TO LCLY IFR ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND
OCCASIONALLY IMPACTING KLUK.

REVIEWING SOME OF THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWED THAT
THE PCPN WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS
EARLIER THOUGHT. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE REDUCTION FROM TEMPO TS
TO VCTS. ALSO SINCE LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL BE FURTHER N HAVE ADDED
VCTS TO THE KCMH AND KLCK. NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TREKS TOWARDS OH/IN/KY SUNDAY MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASE AND ARE NOW FORECAST TO BE SW 5
TO 15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. 

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...HAYDU







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