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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 190155
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
855 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...ASCENT FROM A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL WAVE IS ALSO
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS IS LEADING TO A DIMINISHING TREND IN
RADAR ECHOES...AND FLURRIES OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA HAVE JUST
ABOUT ENDED.

FORECAST TRENDS ARE RIGHT ON TRACK...AND MIN TEMPS WERE NOT
ADJUSTED AT ALL. THE CLOUD FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT
THERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION IN THE LOWEST LAYER OF CLOUDS
(1500-2500 FEET) IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
00Z KILN SOUNDING DOES NOT SHOW A WELL-DEFINED LAYER OF SATURATION
BELOW 800MB AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL SOUNDINGS.
REGARDLESS...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS (6000-1000 FEET) ARE FAIRLY
THICK...AND SKY GRIDS REMAIN AT 90-100 PERCENT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
UPR LVL S/WV WILL PASS EAST ACRS OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FORCING IS WEAK WITH MOST AREAS JUST SEEING A FEW FLURRIES. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH JUST A LIGHT DUSTING ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL INTERSECT WEAK FORCING.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE AS THE RAP MODEL
SHOWS REGION STAYING PRETTY MUCH OVERCAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
DESPITE THIS FEATURE...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. WILL CONTINUE
WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
30S. 

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LATEST MODEL FORECASTS KEEP THE
AFFECTS OF AN UPR LVL S/WV TO OUR SOUTH WHILE SFC RIDGING REMAINS
IN PLACE. IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW IF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
ERODE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT
WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WHILE A WEAK UPR LVL S/WV PASSES
ACRS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ON 
SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW 
PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES 
TO LAKE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...RAIN WILL BE LIKELY IN A CONCENTRATED 
BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW CENTER. 

ENERGY WILL TRANSFER TO A COASTAL LOW ON WEDNESDAY...LEAVING THE 
AREA IN A BRISK AND COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW OF DECREASING MOISTURE AND 
FORCING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO STEADY RAIN AND SNOW...WITH 
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THEN LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. NORTHERN 
LOCATIONS SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

AFTER NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AROUND 40 ON SUNDAY...WARM ADVECTION AHEAD 
OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 40S ON MONDAY AND 
TUESDAY. EXPECT EARLY HIGHS NEAR 40 ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING TO  
BELOW NORMAL 30S UNDER COLD ADVECTION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A FEW BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CINCINNATI AREA...BUT
OVERNIGHT...THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE
REGION. THESE CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1500-2000 FOOT
RANGE...WITH A FEW SPOTS AS HIGH AS 2500 FEET. PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY...BUT A FEW FLURRIES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING.

AS LIGHT WINDS SHIFT FROM WNW TO NNW TOMORROW...THE CLOUD DECK IS
STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...THOUGH THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF
EROSION TO VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS FORECAST WILL
MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS...THOUGH SHOWING A SLIGHT LIFTING INTO THE
2000-2500 FOOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS






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