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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 041050
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
650 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE 
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN 
GREAT LAKES. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION 
ON THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING OCCASIONAL RAIN OM THURSDAY AND 
FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. ANOTHER AREA OF 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE DEWPOINT AND MSAS PRESSURE PLOTS SUGGEST THAT THE COLD
FRONT HAS NOW CLEARED THROUGH THE ILN CWA...WITH TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS AND DRIER AIR COMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT INTO AN WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTATION
AND STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS KENTUCKY. ASIDE FROM SOME CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...MOST OF THE ILN CWA WILL BE
CONTROLLED BY HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH IS SLOWLY MOVING WSW FROM THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERALL...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH THE LOWER
TO UPPER 80S...CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY...A BUILDING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERING OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS KEEPING CONDITIONS FREE OF CONCERN FOR THE
ILN FORECAST AREA. AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY...THINGS WILL START TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

BY 12Z THURSDAY...A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE CROSSING THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR ST LOUIS...ON A TRACK EAST DIRECTLY INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE LOW...AND
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT...PRECIPITATION IS
APPEARING TO BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
WITH A SIZABLE AREA OF 1000MB-500MB SATURATION...FRONTAL AND
DEFORMATION FORCING...AND AN EXPECTED EXTENDED PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION...THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN UNUSUAL WEATHER SYSTEM FOR
EARLY AUGUST.

POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 70 PERCENT FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA...AND CATEGORICAL POPS
WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED ONCE EXACT TIMING CAN BE FIGURED OUT.
PRECIPITATION APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...WITH CHANCES BEGINNING TO DIMINISH IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA AFTER 00Z. THERE WILL DEFINITELY BE A CHANCE
OF THUNDER...BUT INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT
WEAK...WITH POOR LAPSE RATES IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THUS...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT APPRECIABLY HIGH. THE THREAT
FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER SOUTH OF THE SURFACE
LOW TRACK...WHERE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP A LITTLE MORE ROBUSTLY
(PERHAPS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF KENTUCKY).

WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-DURATION RAINFALL...EAST-TO-WEST
LINEAR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING TWO INCHES...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A THREAT FOR
FLOODING. THIS WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVING AWAY ON THURSDAY
EVENING...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE. THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN...WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS
REGARDING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND
WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT THE WEATHER
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST...BUT
ONLY IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REDUCED BY ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO FOR
THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE EXPECTED WEATHER
SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST WILL ALSO STAY CONSERVATIVE IN THE
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY FOR FRIDAY...ALLOWING A RISE OF ONLY A FEW
DEGREES FROM THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSENSUS LEANS TOWARDS A DRY FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SHORTWAVE
AFFECTING THE AREA ON THE NEW DAY 7 MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
TODAY FROM THE WEST...PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS. CALM TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO THE W/NW BY THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME FAIR WEATHER CU TO DEVELOP AROUND
MIDDAY...DISSIPATING TOWARDS SUNSET THIS EVENING AS SOME CIRRUS
SPILLS IN. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND
SIT ATOP THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. WITH WINDS BECOMING
CALM OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SOME BR AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES AGAIN...PARTICULARLY
AT KLUK.

OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/SITES
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...KURZ



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