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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KILN 210842
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
442 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CIRRUS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY AND SOME CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS
READINGS. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z AND TRACK EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 15Z. GUIDANCE IS LOOKING LESS
IMPRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST SCATTERED ACTIVITY INDICATED...BUT THEN
DOES START TO PICK UP IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY. THUS HAVE LOWERED
POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY TONIGHT AND KEPT LIKELY IN THE FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY MORNING. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY MAY
OCCUR SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER HAS BEEN MAINTAINED. CLOUDS
WILL DECREASE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A
BIT GUSTY. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST LOWS WELL ABOVE MOS. SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO GET SOME DIURNAL RISE ON TUESDAY EVEN WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING. LEANED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY WARMER MOS
NUMBERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE
POSITION OF THE HIGH EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BUT NOT COMPLETELY
DIE OFF ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SO AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF
ANY FROST ALTHOUGH THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED GIVEN LOWS ARE
FORECAST IN THE 30S. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. 

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE
LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS WITH IT WITH INSTABILITY APPEARING LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
FURTHER ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH
MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH. SO IT WILL LIKELY PASS
THROUGH DRY.

00Z MODELS DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. HAVE STAYED WITH THE
MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION FORECAST BY THE GFS AND CANADIAN. THIS
SOLUTION HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD EXPECT FOR THE LONGER KCVG TAF. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME CU WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
TAF SITES MONDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES BY
TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT THE CHANCE IS MINIMAL AND THEREFORE DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT
OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE A VCSH MENTION IN AT THE END OF
THE KLUK...KDAY...AND KILN TAFS. KCMH AND KLCK WILL STAY DRY
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING IN AFTER THE TAF
PERIOD. HAVE VCSH AND THEN SHRA MOVING INTO THE LONGER KCVG
TAF. LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS WELL BY THE END
OF THE LONGER KCVG TAF.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK






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