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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 261627
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1227 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
BEFORE ANOTHER SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR MOVES IN AND REMAINS
OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA AT 16Z WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...
THOUGH SOME CU BEGINNING TO POP UP AS TEMPS WARM. HEIGHTS ALOFT
RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH THAT WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE GR
LAKES OVER NEXT 24-48H. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAIRLY
STEEP SO CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR T-STORM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING IS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE SMALL ENOUGH TO
AVOID MENTION IN MOST AREAS.

850 TEMPS POP UP TO 16-18C WHICH SHOULD BE SUITABLE FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS TO HIT 80 OR ABOVE OVER MOST OF THE AREA. MORE CLOUDS UP
NORTH WILL PROBABLY KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S. HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON A SLOW RISE...BUT NOT TERRIBLE GIVEN THAT WE ARE IN THE
HEIGHT OF THE CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMER.

SPC HAS A MODERATE RISK FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF IL-IN EXPECTING AN MCS
TO FORM AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
MIDWEST. THESE DEVELOPMENTS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS LATER TONIGHT AS MODELS SHOW A RARE LATE
NIGHT SURGE OF INSTABILITY MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS. WITH
CONVECTIVE PLACEMENT CONFIDENCE BEING LOW AT THIS RANGE...I OPTED
FOR CHANCE POPS CENTERED MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY COULD BE A BUSY DAY AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW
DROPS THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES AND TAKES AIM AT THE LOCAL AREA. SPC
HAS OUTLOOKED MUCH OF KY AND WV WITH A MODERATE RISK WHICH LOOKS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING DYNAMICS AND
INSTABILITY. WE COULD BE VULNERABLE LOCALLY INTO THE EVENING GIVEN
THE EXPECTED TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION AND THE
AMOUNT OF UPSTREAM INSTABILITY THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE AVAILABLE.

WHERE THE OHIO VALLEY DEVELOPMENTS TAKE PLACE WILL HAVE MUCH TO
SAY ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH INTO CENTRAL PA THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
MANAGE TO MOVE. AS USUAL...BEING ABOUT 2 DAYS OUT...THIS REMAINS
MURKY BUT THIS IS A REMARKABLY ROBUST SYSTEM FOR MID SUMMER AND IT
WILL BE SURPRISING IF IT PASSES WITHOUT CAUSING SEVERE STORMS.
GIVEN CURRENT PROJECTIONS OF WIND AND INSTABILITY...THE AREA SOUTH
OF I-80 WOULD SEEM TO BE THE REGION MOST UNDER THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WILL BE TRENDING DOWN OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL THE ACTION OF NOTE WILL BE PRETTY MUCH OVER BY MONDAY WITH
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AS THE LOW
AND FRONT SLIDE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

IN A PATTERN THAT LOOKS MORE LIKE IT BELONGS IN MID WINTER THAN
MID SUMMER...AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS MADE TO SET UP
OVER THE EASTERN US AND REMAIN IN PLACE ALL WEEK. THE DETAILS OF
MINOR SHORTWAVES SLIDING INTO THE TROUGH DIFFER AMONG THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...BUT DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE MOVED EAST SO
WE'LL BE LEFT DEALING WITH MAINLY DIURNAL INSTABILITY UNDER THE
COLD AIR ALOFT.

WE COULD SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK AS
THE GFS/GEFS/ECMWF ALL HINT AT THE UPPER TROUGH RETROGRADING A
BIT...POSSIBLY PAVING THE WAY FOR SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO WORK
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. 

500MB HEIGHTS IN THE 3-4STD DEV BELOW NORMAL RANGE AND 850 TEMPS
OF 1-3 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL POINT TO THE MOST CERTAIN PART OF THE
FORECAST BEING SEVERAL DAYS OF TEMPERATURES AVERAGING WELL BELOW
NORMAL. A SLOW MODERATION CAN BE EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT THERE IS STILL PROBLEMS 
WITH THE AOO OB.

ANYWAY...SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF WIDELY SCATTERED 
SHOWERS...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE MORNING...AS VORT MAX
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER JET MAX MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THUS COULD BE A FEW MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN AREAS TONIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND WARM ADVECTION
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME STORMS BEING ON THE STRONG 
SIDE AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

LOOKING AT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AFTER MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...SCT TSRA IMPACTS EXPECTED. 
MON...AM LOW CIG POSS W MTNS. 
TUE-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN



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