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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 231115
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
715 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER
THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY AM SATL LOOP SHOWS UPPER LOW PARKED SOUTH OF NEW ENG WITH
PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS FUNNELING FROM MASSACHUSETTS SWRD TOWARD NE
PA ALONG AXIS OF LL JET. RADAR AT 08Z SHOWING JUST A FEW -SHRA
REACHING THE POCONO MTNS FROM SULLIVAN TO SCHUYLKILL COUNTY. THIS
AREA REMAINS THE MOST VULNERABLE TO A FEW ADDITIONAL -SHRA
TODAY...DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND PROXIMITY TO RETREATING UPPER
LOW. LATEST RAP/HRRR SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH THE BEST CHC OF
-SHRA EARLY THIS MORNING OVR SULLIVAN/COLUMBIA/SCHUYLKILL COS.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL AND WINDY DAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
COASTAL LOW. BUFKIT SOUNDINDS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25-35
MPH RANGE. EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE STATE...AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...WHILE CLOUDY
SKIES PREVAIL IN THE EAST. 

ANY REMAINING -SHRA ACROSS THE NE COUNTIES SHOULD END TONIGHT...AS
COASTAL LOW PULLS FURTHER OUT TO SEA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER SW PA WHERE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL ARRIVE BY 12Z
FRI. THE GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP MINS WARMER IN THE EAST...WITH
TEMPS POSSIBLY COLDER THAN FCST OVER THE WEST IF SKIES MANAGE TO
CLEAR AND WINDS SUBSIDE UNDER THE SFC HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN/OPEN AS
IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NNEWD INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME A MORE PROMINENT ROLE
INFLUENCING SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS FOR DAY 2. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH NO RAIN...MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY AND LOWER WINDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FCST ISSUE
IS PROBABLY WITH MIN TEMP FCST WITH DELICATE BALANCE BTWN DIURNAL
OR RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER SFC RIDGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL VERIFICATION RISK IS LKLY TO THE
DOWNSIDE BASED ON CONS FCST WHICH GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BTWN THE WARMER NAM/EC MOS AND THE COLDER GFS MOS. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY TRACKING FROM KY/WV THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY RACING ESEWD FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
H5 LOW WHICH FORMS AND DEEPENS OVER ONT/QUE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
TRACKING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE IT WILL BE A DYNAMIC SYSTEM
ALOFT...THE LACK OF MOISUTRE WILL GREATLY LIMIT PCPN AND CONFINE
MENTION OF SHOWERS TO THE NRN TIER ZONES. REINFORCING SHORTWAVE
FOR SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE A 1-DAY SETBACK IN AN OTHERWISE MILDER
PATTERN HEADING INTO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER. 

THE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW RISING/ABOVE
NORMAL HEIGHTS PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD PLAY A KEY ROLE IN DETERMINING HOW FAST A
BROAD MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH AND FRONTAL PCPN CAN WORK THEIR WAY
EAST OF THE MS RIVER. WHILE THE OP GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT QUITE IN
SYNC WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH OUT OF THE PLAINS...THEY DO
AGREE ON PCPN ARRIVING NEXT WEDNESDAY. 

TEMPS MAY BE SLOW TO REBOUND ON MONDAY AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT BUT
TUESDAY (POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY) LOOK UNSEASONABLY MILD AS LONG AS
THE AREA BREAKS INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND IS NOT IMPACTED TO
HEAVILY BY FRONTAL PCPN. WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST ONE DAY OF HIGHS
10-15F ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME SITES POTENTIALLY MAKING A RUN AT
NEAR RECORD DAILY MAXES WITH CLIMO DEPARTURES APPROACHING +20F.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS MORNING WILL BE LOW CIGS AT KBFD AND
KJST CAUSED BY MOIST NW FLOW ASCENDING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENY MTNS. DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER /MVFR/ CIGS ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL PA THIS
MORNING. A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM SOUTH OF NEW ENG MAY SPREAD A
FEW SHRA AS FAR WEST AS KIPT/KMDT/KLNS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
IT/S MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO CREATE GUSTY NW WINDS. 

LIFTING CIGS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY...AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE DRYING SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE...WHERE CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED. ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY...INCLUDING KIPT/KMDT/KLNS...MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING BUT WIDESPREAD VFR CIGS BY AFTN. THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...AS
DIURNAL HEATING/DEEPENING BLYR DRAW STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO THE SFC.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO ARND 35KTS AT KMDT AND KLNS
TODAY AND 25-30KTS FURTHER WEST.

THE STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS THE STORM
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR A NEAR
CERTAINTY THIS EVENING...THERE IS SOME RISK OF LOW CIGS RETURNING
EARLY FRI AM AT KBFD AND KJST...THE RESULT OF PERSISTENT UPSLOPE
FLOW AND DIURNAL COOLING OF MOIST BLYR. 

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...AM LOW CIGS POSS KBFD/KJST. 
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD



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