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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 180224
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1024 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DOWN THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS WILL KEEP FAIR AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND AND RISE ABOVE
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

COMPOSITE IMAGERY IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME LOW CLOUDS FORMING OVER
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE ARE JUST SOME THIN
HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS. WE WILL REMAIN FAIR...BUT THIS
TENDENCY FOR A MOIST MARITIME FLOW TO HELP DEVELOP A SHIELD OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE. WE HAVE A FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT...BUT IF
THE CLOUDS KEEP DEVELOPING BEFORE THE WINDS AND TEMPS DROP
OFF...FROST WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.

THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL HELP TO CURB THE
TEMP DROP TONIGHT...AND MINS EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER THAN EARLIER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE MEAN BLYR FLOW VEERS A BIT MORE TO THE SSE OR SOUTH DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY...WHICH WILL HELP AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO NEW YORK STATE.

A BROAD...NEARLY NORTH-SOUTH AXIS OF LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL HELP TO CREATE MORE IN THE WAY OF STRATO
CU...THAN THE NEARLY NON-EXISTENT AMOUNTS THAT WE/VE SEEN IN THE
UNUSUALLY COLD...AND BONE-DRY AIRMASS THE PAST FEW DAYS.

OTHERWISE...THE LLVL RIDGE AXIS STAYS IN PLACE ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND HELPS TO DEFLECT A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER SRN STREAM STORM
WILL ALSO BE HELD AT BAY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE NWRN COS LATE FRIDAY...OR 
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 17/12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION ACROSS
THE LOWER 48 THIS PERIOD...SUPPORTING INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST. THE MAIN THEME FOR CENTRAL PA OVER THE NEXT 7+ DAYS
WILL BE A DRY AND RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN-PRODUCING SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON. THIS SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...TRENDING WARMER WITH THE ODDS FAVORING
A TILT TOWARD THE WARMER-SIDE OF LATE APRIL CLIMATOLOGY.

NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL BRING
SCT...VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO NW/N-CENTRAL PA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LIMITED RETURN FLOW AND
RELATIVELY COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
LIMIT QPF AMTS TO AOB 0.10 INCH. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED SRN STREAM LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REGAINING CONTROL OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EASTER WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES APPEAR MARGINAL FOR FROST SUN-MON MORNING
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VLY WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS OFFICIALLY
UNDERWAY.

THE BEST OPPORTUNITY/HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
/0.25 TO 0.50 INCH AMOUNTS/ OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL LIKELY COME
ON TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE NORTHEAST ON DAY
7/WED EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF A 500MB LOW NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE THE GFS/GEFS ARE NOT AS STRONG AND GENERALLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE ALOFT...WHICH LEADS TO FASTER HEIGHT RISES HEADING
INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT
IS PROBABLY A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH BOTH MODELS/EFS DEPICTING A WEAK NEGATIVE
H5-H7 ANOMALY INVOF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WED-FRI. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MS VLY/MID-SOUTH SHOULD REACH THE EAST COAST
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND FOLLOWING
THE BRIEF COOL-DOWN MIDWEEK WITH MAX TEMPS POSSIBLY HEADING BACK
TO/OR ABOVE 70F.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A LAYER OF
SHALLOW/BKN MVFR-LOW END VFR STRATOCU WILL BE SLIDING IN FROM THE
SE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AIRFIELDS...AND
REACHING THE CENTRAL MTNS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AVERAGING TO 8-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS. THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE BY 00Z.

CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO IMPACT MAINLY NW LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PROB OF RESTRICTIONS. VFR ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...GENERALLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS POSS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE
PA EARLY.

FRI NIGHT-SAT...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS POSS WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS /MAINLY NW HALF/.

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...A FEW...TO SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH BRIEF MVFR
VSBYS IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ057-059-
063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU



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