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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 281733
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1233 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY WILL CROSS PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL PA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. 
A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPS HAVE REBOUNDED NICELY UNDER SUNNY SKIES AFTER A FRIGID
EARLY MORNING UNDER THE 1044 MB RIDGE. EARLY AFTERNOON READINGS 
RANGE FROM MID TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTHEAST.

FAIR AND STILL COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS 
SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVR THE REGION. REGIONAL IR LOOP INDICATES MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER INDIANA AND
OHIO...WHICH WILL TRACK INTO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ONLY IMPACT WILL BE TO DIM THE
BRIGHT SUNSHINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS HIGHS REACH 20-25 IN MOST
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPCOMING PRECIP WILL EXTEND BETWEEN A 12-24 HOUR EVENT...
MEANING THAT 24 HOUR WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA MUST BE USED TO
VERIFY AMOUNTS. HERE IN CENTRAL PA...THAT MEANS A MID POINT OF 8"
MUST ACCUMULATE IN 24 HOURS FOR WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET...AND 
THE OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS AFTER LOOKING AT MORNING DATA SUITE IS
THAT WE WON'T SEE THAT EXCEPT FOR SPOT AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST OR WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE WATCHES WERE IN EFFECT.

COLLAB WITH ALL SURROUNDING OFFICES HAS PROMPTED ADVISORY
ISSUANCES FOR ALL OF MY COUNTIES. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...A GENERAL
6 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WHILE ELSEWHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES AND A
COATING OF ICE WILL BE COMMON. FOR THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...
A COATING TO LESS THAN TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF WIND MEANS THIS SHOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY
DAMAGING OR DISRUPTIVE EVENT (IN TERMS OF POWER, ETC). 

BLEND OF MORNING MDL OUTPUT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL
PA...LGT SNOW IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY LATE AM.

AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES WITH APPROACH OF N STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT LKS SUNDAY PM. ASSOC LL JET AND
SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LKLY CHANGE LGT SNOW TO A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN PA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE MDL
SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE PTYPE PLUMES INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS AREAS
NORTH OF I-80.

THE TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MY CWA. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF IN ALL AREAS DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLUSTERY AND COLD WX APPEARS LIKELY MONDAY IN WAKE OF DEPARTING
LOW PRES SYSTEM. PASSAGE OF UPPER LVL TROF MAY SUPPORT SOME
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE ALLEGHENIES. HOWEVER...THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT
GUSTS IN THE 35-40KT RANGE IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WEST OF
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING STORM EAST OF NEW ENG. 

MED RANGE GUIDANCE DISPLAYING SIMILAR TIMING W/RESPECT TO NEXT
SYSTEM TO AFFECT PA TUE/WED. SFC HIGH WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF FAIR WX LATE MONDAY/MON NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW PRES TRACKING
WEST OF PA WILL LIKELY SPREAD A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. PTYPE APPEARS LIKELY TO TURN TO RAIN TUES NIGHT/EARLY
WED...AS LOW TRACKS THRU THE GRT LKS AND SFC HIGH WILL BE IN AN
UNFAVORABLE POSITION SE OF PA TO HOLD IN LOW LVL COLD AIR.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY
WED. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP WED PM/THU AM...AS SOME MED
RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A WAVE FORMS ON DYING FRONT SOUTH OF PA.
THIS SCENARIO COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF EITHER RAIN/SNOW
SOMETIME LATE WED OR EARLY THU. 

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR INTO TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN
SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS PASSING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY BEFORE MID
DECK THICKENS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES FROM OKLAHOMA THROUGH
THE MIDWEST AND INTO PA AT THE SAME TIME THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG. AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL WILL
SPREAD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY STARTING AROUND 09Z. AT THE SAME
TIME...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
DEVELOPING FROM W TO E. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS SRN PA LATER SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN GOOD INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM W TO E AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING FROM W TO E.

SUN...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW
ACROSS NRN PA...WHILE MIXING W/ SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

MON...CONTINUED CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 27TH...IPT 18.4...MDT 20.9.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KMDT AND KIPT TEMPERATURES READING FAR TOO WARM. OBSERVER AT KMDT
REPORTED 27F AS THE MAX BASED ON BACKUP OBSERVATION AND NEAREST
NEIGHBOR. PARTS ON ORDER FOR KMDT BUT KIPT TEMP SPIKE/TROUBLE IS
NEW TODAY AND WILL BE INVESTIGATED. USING 28F FOR MAX IN KIPT
FOR TODAY 2/27 BASED ON NEAREST NEIGHBOR OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY 
FOR PAZ006-012-018-019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY 
FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR
CLIMATE...LACORTE
EQUIPMENT...CTP



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