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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 181101
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
701 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH
OF PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IR IMAGERY SHOWING SCT-BKN STRATOCU ACROSS THE N MTNS AT 08Z
ASSOC WITH LIMITED LAKE MOISTURE IN NW FLOW. MDL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DIMINISHING CLOUDS BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS INVERSION HGT
LOWERS. HOWEVER...BUILDUP OF DIURNAL CU WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
FEW HOURS OF MCLDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN PA DURING THE AFTN BASED
ON LATEST MDL RH TIME SECTIONS. 

LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE BENEATH EXPANSIVE HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL SUPPLY
DRY AND CHILLY WX TODAY. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS BTWN -7C AND -11C
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS FROM THE L30S OVR THE N MTNS...TO
PERHAPS THE M40S IN THE VALLEYS ALONG THE MD BORDER. DEEPENING
BLYR DEPTH WILL DRAW DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS BY AFTN. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO ARND 25KTS DURING THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
FAIR WX...LGT WIND AND STILL COOL CONDS EXPECTED THURSDAY...AS
SFC HIGH PASSES OVR PA. THE LGT WIND AND MCLEAR SKY SHOULD RESULT
IN MIN TEMPS TONIGHT A BIT COLDER THAN THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS
FROM THE MTEENS NORTH TO M20S SOUTH. AIR MASS SHOULD MODERATE
SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY UNDER STRENGTHENING MARCH SUNSHINE. CONSALL
MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM M30S N MTNS...TO THE 40S OVER THE REST OF
CENTRAL PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN SNOW FRIDAY...WHEN ALL MDL GUIDANCE
TRACKS FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE THRU THE AREA. ALTHOUGH SFC LOW
REMAINS WEAK AS IT TRACKS SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE...COMBINATION
OF WEAK SFC LOW AND HIGH OFF THE NEW ENG COAST SHOULD CREATE
ENOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW/OVERRUNNING FOR A LIGHT TO MOD PRECIP EVENT.
ATTM...GEFS/SREF PLUMES AND MEAN 8H 0C ISOTHERM IN ECENS SUGGEST
THE BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. HOWEVER...SURGE OF WARMER
AIR WEST OF THE ALLEGHENIES COULD RESULT IN SOME RAIN OVR PORTIONS
OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. CONSALL QPF AND ASSUMPTION OF SNOW/WATER
RATIOS NOT FAR FROM 10/1 TRANSLATE TO LIKELY SNOW TOTALS OF 2-4
INCHES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL PA. 00Z OPER EC IMPLIES
THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR
AND MARGINAL SFC TEMPS...MUCH OF THE ACCUM WOULD LIKELY BE ON 
NON-PAVEMENT SURFACES. AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...DAYTIME SNOW
ACCUMS WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATION DEPENDENT...WITH THE HIGHEST AMTS
ON THE RIDGETOPS.

A FAIR AMT OF AGREEMENT THRU NEXT WEEKEND AMONG MED RANGE
GUIDANCE...ALL OF WHICH INDICATE A DEEP TROUGH FORMING OVR THE
NORTHEAST CONUS IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING RIDGE ON THE PACIFIC
COAST. 00Z GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF ALL INDICATE PASSAGE OF A SHARP COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY WELL BLW NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE 24 HOURS. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION TODAY...THANKS TO A
MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND AN
AREA OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE SE OF NOVA SCOTIA.

VFR WILL DOMINATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND EXPECT JUST SOME
SCATTERED HIGHER BASED STRATO CU TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF NRN
PENN...WITH SOME CIRRUS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE SRN PART OF THE
STATE.

AFTER ANOTHER VFR DAY THURSDAY...WITH MUCH LIGHTER WIND AS THE
CENTER OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE
STATE...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL LOWER AND THICKEN UP LATE WITH SNOW
SPREADING INTO THE SW ZONES AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND LIKELY REACHING THE TAF SITES /KBFD...KUNV AND
KMDT/ BETWEEN 09-12Z FRIDAY.

MVFR TO IFR EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY IN PERIODS OF
SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR/NO SIG WX. 

THU NGT-FRI...MVFR/IFR LIKELY DEVELOPING IN SN ASSOCD WITH LOW
PRES TRACKING NE TO THE MID-ATLC/NORTHEAST COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LINGERING DRIZZLE...FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW
EARLY AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS EAST OF THE MID ATL COAST WITH IFR
TO LIFR STRATUS CIGS/VSBYS...AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND.

SAT...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR/IFR PSBL NW IN -SHSN.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT



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