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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 250544
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
144 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS
EVENING FOLLOWED BY A STRING OF DRY AND INCREASINGLY MILD DAYS
FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA
DURING MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
HIGHER-END LOW CLOUDS MOVING DOWN FROM THE NW ARE WELL-DEPICTED BY
THE NAM AND RUC...AND WILL FOLLOWTHE PROGRESSION OF ADVANCE ON CUE
FROM THOSE SOURCES. WHILE THEY MAY BREAK UP AS THEY DESCEND THE
CENTRAL MTNS...THEY SHOULD HANG AROUND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAYTIME. TEMPS SHOULD THEREFORE
HOLD A LITTLE MILD THROUGH SUNRISE AND MAY NOT RISE VERY QUICKLY
IN THE MORNING. BUT DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD HELP TO BREAK THEM UP
AND LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE AN EXCELLENT FALL DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
/AND LEAVE RAKING EARLY IN THE DAY/. HOWEVER...A TIGHTENING
P-GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL KICK UP A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND BY
LATE MORNING AND THE WIND WILL GUST BETWEEN THE UPPER TEENS AND
MID 20 KT RANGE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CFRONT. 

TEMPS WILL BE RISING TO BETWEEN 55F /NW MTNS/ AND THE MID TO UPPER
60S /SE/ AS 8H TEMPS WILL BE HOLDING BETWEEN 5C AND ALMOST 10C IN
THE AFTN.

THE WEAK...AND MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW BEFORE
DARK AND SHOULD BE THROUGH THE WHOLE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL FALL ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...BUT MOST OR ALL
THESE SHOULD DRY UP AS THEY DESCEND THE ALLEGHENY FRONT JUST NW
OF KAOO...KUNV AND KIPT WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES AT THOSE CENTRAL
PENN LOCATIONS.

NW WINDS SHOULD PICK AGAIN AND BECOME GUSTY AT...AND JUST AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WELL-ALIGNED WIND PROFILE AND UP TO 50KT
WINDS AS CLOSE AS 5KFT AGL. WILL MENTION GUSTS INTO THE 20S BUT
DECOUPLING AROUND THE TIME OF PASSAGE MY KEEP THE STRONGEST OF THE
WINDS FROM GETTING DOWN TO THE SFC. THE WIND SAT NIGHT WILL KEEP
IT FROM GETTING TOO COLD WITH MINS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW JET STREAM PATTERN OVER THE CONTERMINOUS
U.S. WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PERIOD. GENERAL TROFFINESS OVER
THE NERN U.S. EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE ENHANCED BY SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES BEFORE HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...TROFFING/FALLING HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE
REGION.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER DIXIE WILL SLIDE EAST TOWARD
BERMUDA AND LEAD TO A WARM SRLY FLOW. A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES MON AND
TUES. HIGH TEMPS IN PA ON TUESDAY MAY GET INTO THE U60S NORTH AND
U70S IN THE SOUTH...OR ABOUT 15F TO 18F ABOVE NORMALS. THE MAIN
SFC LOW WITH THIS LONG- WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM LS TO JAMES
BAY LATE TUES INTO WED. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH OFF
THE LOW WILL WHIP THROUGH - PERHAPS FAIRLY DRY - LATE TUES AND
TUES NIGHT. IT SHOULD THEN HANG UP OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES.
WILL THEREFORE DRAW THE BELL CURVE OF POPS TO SURROUND TUES
NIGHT...BUT ALSO LINGER SOME SLIGHT CHCS IN THE SRN TIER FOR WED.

THE CONFIDENCE LOWERS SOME FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT ANOTHER NRN STREAM SYSTEM ZIPS IN FROM THE WEST
LATER IN THE WEEK...AND MAY HAVE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
BEHIND IT IF THE EC IS YOUR PREFERENTIAL MODEL DU JOUR. OTHER
SOLNS ARE NOT QUITE SO PROFOUND WITH THE SHARPNESS OF THE TROUGH
AND COLDNESS OF THE AIRMASS BEHIND IT. IN ANY CASE...THE TROUGH
AND COLDER AIR APPEARS TO MOVE OUT VERY QUICKLY IN THE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DEVELOPING SW FLOW RIDING OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS
ACROSS PA IS PRODUCING BKN CLOUDS OVR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE AT 05Z. SATL TRENDS AND NEAR TERM MDLS INDICATE THESE
CLOUDS...WITH BASES ARND 4 KFT...WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM OBS AND MDL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A BRIEF DIP TO MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE AT KBFD/KJST BTWN
06Z-12Z.

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS EXPECTED SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT OVR THE GRT LKS. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF
FRONT SHOULD PRODUCE SWRLY WIND GUSTS DURING THE LATE AM AND AFTN
UP TO 25KTS ACROSS THE NW MTNS. AS COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING...A BRIEF SHOWER AND DIP TO MVFR CIGS IS
POSSIBLE AT KBFD AND KJST. ELSEWHERE...DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD
ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF VFR FLYING CONDS.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. 
TUE...GUSTY WINDS/SHRA POSSIBLE LATE OVR THE W MTNS. 
WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
AVIATION...FITZGERALD



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