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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 010644
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
144 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND CROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS SUNDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLOUDS INCREASING RAPIDLY OVER WESTERN PA AT THIS HOUR...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE OFF OF THE ATLANTIC COAST. LIGHT SNOW IS 
BREAKING OUT OVER CENTRAL OHIO HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SEWD OFF THE
ATLC COAST. HRW-ARW AND HRR SHOW SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z ACROSS MY FAR WESTERN ZONES...BUT THIS SHOULD
BE VERY LIGHT. NO OTHER EVENTFUL WEATHER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH CLOUD
SHIELD MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY FIRST...FOLLOWED BY THICKER 
WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES RIGHT UP THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING IT SHOULD BE OVER KPIT...AND ROLL
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THIS IS A MUCH MILDER SOLUTION ON THE
WHOLE...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SIMPLE TEMPORARY MODEL WAGGLE
BUT RATHER A SUBSTANTIAL/DECISIVE SHIFT. 8H TEMPS GO WELL ABOVE
ZERO IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WARM LAYER PRETTY FAR INTO THE REST
OF THE AREA MON MORNING AS WELL. THUS...THERE WILL BE A TURN TO
RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA WITH A TRANSITION
IN P-TYPE TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN. SLEET LOOKS LIKE A LOW
PROBABILITY EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER...WITH A PRETTY
GOOD WARM LAYER. 

FARTHER NORTH/WARMER SOLUTION WILL CUT DOWN THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN
THE SOUTH AND SOMEWHAT IN THE CENTRAL ZONES...WITH ADVY OR PERHAPS
LESS SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE FAR SRN TIER. BUT...THE CHANCE FOR ICING
IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST AN ADVY FOR THEM. WILL HOLD ON WITH
6-8INCHES IN THE CENTRAL STRIPE DUE TO THE GOOD QPF IN THE PROGS
DURING THE COLD TIME BEFORE THE MIDDLE OF SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH...BUT GOOD P-GRAD
WINDS WILL KICK IN BEHIND THE LOW. THIS COULD CAUSE BLOWING
SNOW...BUT IT WILL BE RATHER WET SNOW AND THE GLAZE OF ICE AFTER
WILL PROBABLY CUT DOWN ON BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN IMPACTS FROM WINTER STORM WILL HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM REGION BY
MON NIGHT...BUT ARCTIC AIR PUSHING IN WILL BRING A VERY COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH AND BELOW
ZERO NORTH. THOUGH STRONGER WINDS IN THE EVENING WILL BE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH OF A BREEZE WILL REMAIN TO DROP
WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO FOR ALL...WITH NORTHERN MTNS AND
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LIKELY NEEDING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY /-15F/ MON
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. THIS COULD ADD TO STORM-RELATED
IMPACTS...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY BLACK ICE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COLD BUT GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER INTO
MIDWEEK. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WED THAT MAY BRING LIGHT
ACCUMS TO THE NW HALF /BEFORE THE SYSTEM DEEPENS MORE RAPIDLY OVER
NEW ENGLAND/...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF MORE ARCTIC AIR
AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THU INTO FRI - INCLUDING A
RETURN OF BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS.

TEMPS MODERATE A BIT...BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...ON SAT. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE AREA MAY IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS TO BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU CLOUD DECK BORDERING ON THE LOWER END OF VFR
WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE STATE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY AS LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES. THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL RACE EAST FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY AND OUTPACE THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOWER CLOUDS AFTER
06Z. 

HRRR...AND HI RES WRF ARW MODELS SHOW AN INITIAL EASTWARD
EXTENDING ARM OF LIGHT TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY MDT WARM ADVECTION SNOWS
SPREADING EAST TO THE I-99/ROUTE 220 CORRIDOR BETWEEN KAOO AND
KIPT AROUND 15-16Z...WHILE PARTS OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...AND
WRN POCONOS STAYS DRY UNTIL PERHAPS AS LATE AS 17-18Z.

THE ONSET OF MVFR CIGS /AND GRADUALLY DETERIORATING VSBYS TO IFR/
HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK A FEW HOURS BASED ON THE FACTORS/MODELS NOTED
ABOVE. THE LOWERING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 12-17Z AS DEEPENING MOISTURE /AND THE ONSET OF LIGHT
SNOW/ STREAKS EASTWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOWLY SWD SAGGING
COLD FRONT.

WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR LATE SUNDAY 
INTO EARLY MON AS HEAVIER SNOW IMPACTS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE...WITH A WINTRY MIX WORKING INTO THE KMDT- KLNS AREA WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ICING. LLWS POSS SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE S/SE AS LOW
LEVEL JET ROTATES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...WIDESPREAD IFR-MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS DEVELOPING DURING THE
MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LLWS POSS SUN NIGHT SE.

MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY...GRADUALLY IMPROVING AS THE STORM
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. LLWS POSS MON AFT/NIGHT.

TUE...NO SIG WX.

WED...MVFR IN SHSN NW...VFR SE.

THU...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST MONDAY 
FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EST 
MONDAY FOR PAZ033>036-064>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EST MONDAY 
FOR PAZ024>028-056-057-059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER 
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT



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