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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 242349
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
749 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT BRINGING FAIR WEATHER
AND DECREASING WIND. STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS AND MILD
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RACE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A STRING OF DRY AND
INCREASINGLY MILD DAYS WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL
THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE WARMEST DAY LIKELY BEING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE DRIFTING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WAS HELPING TO CREATE AN AREA OF SCT-BKN CIRRUS AND
CIRROSTRATUS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PENN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ABOVE A SURFACE RIDGE AND A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR.

ABUNDANT SUNSHINE PREVAILED ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION AND SUSQ VALLEY. INCREASING /THOUGH MAINLY THIN/ HIGH
CLOUDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WEST TO NW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH /GUSTING INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE/ WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND 
BACK BY ABOUT 30-45 DEG LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE STATE.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 5-7F ABOVE NORMAL /OR IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MTNS AND 6LOWER TO MID 60S THROUGHOUT THE
CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE MID AND
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY COULD TOP OUT AROUND 68-69F. 

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND HELPS TO SLACKEN
THE WIND AS THE BLYR DECOUPLES UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT.

THE WEST TO SW BREEZE WILL LIKELY STAY UP JUST ENOUGH /IN THE 4-6
KTS RANGE/ TO PREVENT ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME PATCHY FROST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NRN PENN LATE. WEAK MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WELL IN
ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE UPPER GLAKES WILL
BRING SOME PERIODS OF HIGH-BASED STRATO CU AND ALTO CU TO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE MTNS NE OF
KIPT...TO THE U30S AND LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE AN EXCELLENT FALL DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
/AND LEAVE RAKING EARLY IN THE DAY/. HOWEVER...A TIGHTENING
P-GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL KICK UP A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND BY
LATE MORNING AND THE WIND WILL GUST BETWEEN THE UPPER TEENS AND
MID 20 KT RANGE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CFRONT. 

TEMPS WILL BE RISING TO BETWEEN 55F /NW MTNS/ AND THE MID TO UPPER
60S /SE/ AS 8H TEMPS WILL BE HOLDING BETWEEN 5C AND ALMOST 10C IN
THE AFTN.

THE WEAK...AND MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW BEFORE
DARK AND SHOULD BE THROUGH THE WHOLE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL FALL ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...BUT MOST OR ALL
THESE SHOULD DRY UP AS THEY DESCEND THE ALLEGHENY FRONT JUST NW
OF KAOO...KUNV AND KIPT WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES AT THOSE CENTRAL
PENN LOCATIONS.

NW WINDS SHOULD PICK AGAIN AND BECOME GUSTY AT...AND JUST AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WELL-ALIGNED WIND PROFILE AND UP TO 50KT
WINDS AS CLOSE AS 5KFT AGL. WILL MENTION GUSTS INTO THE 20S BUT
DECOUPLING AROUND THE TIME OF PASSAGE MY KEEP THE STRONGEST OF THE
WINDS FROM GETTING DOWN TO THE SFC. THE WIND SAT NIGHT WILL KEEP
IT FROM GETTING TOO COLD WITH MINS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW JET STREAM PATTERN OVER THE CONTERMINOUS
U.S. WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PERIOD. GENERAL TROFFINESS OVER
THE NERN U.S. EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE ENHANCED BY SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES BEFORE HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...TROFFING/FALLING HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE
REGION.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER DIXIE WILL SLIDE EAST TOWARD
BERMUDA AND LEAD TO A WARM SRLY FLOW. A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES MON AND
TUES. HIGH TEMPS IN PA ON TUESDAY MAY GET INTO THE U60S NORTH AND
U70S IN THE SOUTH...OR ABOUT 15F TO 18F ABOVE NORMALS. THE MAIN
SFC LOW WITH THIS LONG- WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM LS TO JAMES
BAY LATE TUES INTO WED. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH OFF
THE LOW WILL WHIP THROUGH - PERHAPS FAIRLY DRY - LATE TUES AND
TUES NIGHT. IT SHOULD THEN HANG UP OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES.
WILL THEREFORE DRAW THE BELL CURVE OF POPS TO SURROUND TUES
NIGHT...BUT ALSO LINGER SOME SLIGHT CHCS IN THE SRN TIER FOR WED.

THE CONFIDENCE LOWERS SOME FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT ANOTHER NRN STREAM SYSTEM ZIPS IN FROM THE WEST
LATER IN THE WEEK...AND MAY HAVE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
BEHIND IT IF THE EC IS YOUR PREFERENTIAL MODEL DU JOUR. OTHER
SOLNS ARE NOT QUITE SO PROFOUND WITH THE SHARPNESS OF THE TROUGH
AND COLDNESS OF THE AIRMASS BEHIND IT. IN ANY CASE...THE TROUGH
AND COLDER AIR APPEARS TO MOVE OUT VERY QUICKLY IN THE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND MUCH OF SATURDAY AT ALL
CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE
IN SCT LATE DAY NIGHT TIME SHOWERS ACROSS NRN PENN INVOF KBFD AND
NORTH OF KIPT.

TUE NIGHT AND WED...AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SE ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
AVIATION...DEVOIR/LAMBERT



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