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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 021017
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
617 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS PA
LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST LATE
THIS WEEK...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION BY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR LOOP AT 09Z SHOWING A FEW -SHRA WORKING THRU CENTRAL PA AHEAD
OF WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THRU THE E GRT LKS. WANING LG SCALE
FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN ANY REMAINING -SHRA FALLING APART ARND
SUNRISE. SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE...AS DEPICTED
BY DARKENING IN WV IMAGERY ENTERING W PA...SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY
MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. THE DAY WILL START WITH LOW
CLOUDS BANKED AGAINST THE WINDWARD /WEST/ SLOPES OF THE
ALLEGHENIES...BUT DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING WITHIN DEEPENING BLYR
SHOULD RESULT IN BRIGHTENING SKIES ACROSS THE W MTNS...WHILE
MSUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

A POTENT-LOOKING SHORTWAVE...OVR IOWA EARLY THIS AM...WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT THRU CENTRAL PA LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SPC
PLACES MUCH OF CENTRAL PA /WITH EXCEPTION OF LOWER SUSQ VALLEY/ IN
A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR WX WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WGUSTS.

CLOUD COVER FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION...ALONG WITH AM LOW
STRATUS...SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION TODAY. LATEST OPER
AND ENS DATA PRODUCE ONLY MINIMAL CAPES OF BELOW 1000 J/KG.
HOWEVER...A BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLY MID-LVL FLOW AND DEEP LYR
SHEAR SHOULD HELP ORGANIZE LATE DAY CONVECTION INTO LINE
SEGMENTS/CLUSTERS THAT COULD SUPPORT ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. 

WHERE SKIES REMAIN MSUNNY INTO THE AFTN...MDL 850TEMPS SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE U80S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. MEANWHILE...EARLIER
ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS/CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW MTNS SHOULD LIMIT TEMPS
TO THE L/M 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN
PA...CLOSEST TO TRACK OF MID LVL SHORTWAVE. COLD FRONT AND ASSOC
SHOWER THREAT WILL PASS SE OF THE REGION AFTER 06Z. CLEARING
SKIES...A LGT WIND AND WET GROUND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF
FOG LATE TONIGHT. 

HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRIER AIR MASS WILL BE OVR THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...SUPPLYING MSUNNY AND WARM CONDS. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS NR
15C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE M70S NW MTNS TO THE M80S
IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THU INTO FRI...ALLOWING
MORE HUMID AIR TO BEGIN RETURNING TO THE REGION. A SURFACE LOW
SLIDES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND LIFTING
INTO S CANADA ON FRI...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ALONG BEHIND. AS THIS
FRONT APPROACHES...AN AREA OF HIGHER PWATS /1-2"/ SURGES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...AND THEN INTO PA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. AT SAME TIME A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH SAGS SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL BRING ELEVATED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS STARTING FRI NIGHT IN THE NW AND
SPREADING AREAWIDE ON SAT. AHEAD OF CDFRONT...TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO
PEAK FRIDAY WITH MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD HIGHS BTWN
85-90F. 

BEHIND THE FRONT...AIRMASS CHANGE WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR FOR LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL FALL
BACK ABOUT 10F...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. AS LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE AREA TRACKS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...MORNING LOWS SHOULD
DIP WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...AND IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LEFT AT 09Z. DID BACK OFF THE FOG
AT SITES WHERE CLDS PREVAIL AND NOT MUCH HINT OF FOG.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS MORNING. NGM SHOWS THIS AREA MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ACORSS THE SOUTH. WAS STRONGER STORMS JUST
SOUTH OF THE PA BORDER WHEN I CAME IN AT MIDNIGHT.

MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFT AND EARLY
EVENING...AS WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SE.

VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE AS THE LOSS OF HEATING RAISED THE
STABILITY AND PASSAGE OF A VERY WEAK WAVE HAS LEFT US IN A LULL.
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IS APPROACHING FROM OHIO AND IS TOUCHING OFF
SOME SHOWERS TO THE WEST. NAM BLOSSOMS THIS AREA AS THE SWRLY FLOW
INCREASES SLIGHTLY OVERHEAD. BUT WILL LEAV IT MOSTLY DRY THROUGH
THE NIGHT EXCEPT IN THE NW. THE 70PLUS DEWPOINTS AND UPSLOPE INTO
THE WRN MTS WILL CREATE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. SOME
DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE THERE. THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL
BE MAINLY VFR.

A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWRD OVER THE LOWER LAKES LATER IN THE DAY
WILL MEAN THE AREA WILL STAY IN THE WARM-SECTOR AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME SCATTERED OVER THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT
WILL BE A BETTER FOCUS FOR NMRS SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE EVENING AS IT
MOVES SEWRD ACROSS CENTRAL PA. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK... 
WED-THU...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR. 
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC OF PM TSTMS WEST. 
SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTMS ASSOCD WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/MARTIN



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