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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 222140
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
540 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE NEAR-TO-SHORT RANGE PERIOD. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT WAVE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE SWINGING WESTWARD
INTO EASTERN PA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CENTERED EAST
OF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW UPPER LOW CENTER TRACKING NEWD THIS EVENING BEFORE
WRAPPING NWWD BACK TOWARD LONG ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
NEWD TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE SFC LOW
SHOULD TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK.

CURRENT WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL HELP THICKEN CLOUD COVER THAT HAD
BEEN ABLE TO THIN SOME EARLY THIS AFTN...ESP OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL PA. SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY AT A
MINIMUM WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT
BEFORE FADING AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT PULLS AWAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE ON DAY 2 OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS
AND SPLITS THROUGH THE MS VLY. THE MODELS SHOW THE SRN BRANCH WAVE
APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI WITH THE GFS BEING FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC. THE MAIN WRAP-AROUND PCPN AREA
SHOULD SHIFT INTO NERN PA ON BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM. THURS WILL BE ANOTHER RAW DAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS ABOUT 5F BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMALS.
POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
PORTIONS OF SRN/SWRN PA STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY THU EVE...COASTAL LOW WILL BE DRIFTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WHICH SHOULD END PRECIP CHANCES FOR CENTRAL PA. AFTER WEAK RIDGING
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...THE NEXT FEATURE UP WILL BE A
SPLITTING WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SEND A PIECE OF
ENERGY ACROSS PA FRI NIGHT WITH MINIMAL IMPACT. A STRONGER SYSTEM
FOLLOWING BEHIND THE INITIAL SPLITTING WAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE
LAKES FOR LATE WEEKEND...WITH THE EC TRENDING FASTER THAN THE GFS
INITIALLY /THOUGH THE GFS CATCHES UP IN PLACEMENT OVER NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY/. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR
INTO PA POSS AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY SUN INTO MON
AS CORE OF UPPER JET SWINGS A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT THROUGH.
ANY LIGHT PRECIP FROM THIS WILL THE BULK OF PCPN LIKELY OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLDER NW FLOW IN THE FORM OF LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS.

THIS REGIME WILL BE REPLACED QUICKLY BY A LARGE RIDGE SLIDING IN
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE EAST COAST
AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE ROCKIES...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE WARMUP
LATER MON AND ESP TUES -WHEN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE
AND SHOULD TOUCH 70F IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.

THE WESTERN SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD FOR MIDWEEK...WITH
MODELS DIVERGING ON TIMING/STRENGTH. BUT OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE
IMPLIES A POTENTIAL SHOWERY PERIOD WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
NE...KEEPING THE REGION IN A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN RAIN SHOWERS
BACK INTO ERN PA.

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS N-NERLY FLOW IS SLOW TO ABATE.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NRN MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SHRA
POSS ERN THIRD.

SAT-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER



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