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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 252343
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
743 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS
EVENING FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF COOL DOWN SUNDAY...THEN INCREASINGLY
MILD DAYS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD IMPACT
THE AREA DURING MID WEEK. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT AS OF ABOUT 7PM WAS ENTERING THE NORTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS FROM JUST WEST OF ELMIRA DOWN TO JUST NORTH OF DUBOIS.
RADAR SHOWS INCREASING COVERAGE OF LIGHT RETURNS...BUT LITTLE OR
NO IR CLOUD ENHANCEMENT AND NO SURFACE OBS INDICATING RAIN
SUGGEST THAT OTHER THAN A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES...THE FRONT WILL
PASS RATHER QUIETLY WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM THE WSW TO WNW AND
BECOME A BIT GUSTY. WELL-ALIGNED WNW FLOW IN THE LOWEST LEVELS
TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND
FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF A
POWERFUL 155 KT UPPER JET TO BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 20-30 MPH.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE U30S TO AROUND 40F ACROSS THE NRN AND
WRN MTNS AND LOW-MID 40S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND ABOUT 10F COOLER THAN SATURDAY...BUT
STILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
SLIGHTLY GREATER DEPARTURES OF ABOUT -5F WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST.

VERTICAL MIXING UP TO AROUND 4 KFT AGL WILL TAP 25 TO 30KT WINDS
AND TRANSPORT THEM DOWN TO THE SFC IN GUSTS BETWEEN 14-22Z.

THE GUSTY WINDS AND DRY FINE FUELS COULD LEAD TO SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED CONDITIONS FOR FIRE SPREAD. HOWEVER...THE RH/S SHOULD
NOT DIP BELOW 30 PCT...THANKS TO THE COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS. 
COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN
AGAINST POSTING A FIRE WX WATCH AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN ACTIVE JET STREAM PATTERN OVER THE U.S. AND SOUTHERN CANADA 
WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SUCCESSIVE DEEP TROUGHS WILL
PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION. THESE WILL BE ENHANCED BY SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES BEFORE HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH/FALLING HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE REGION.

 A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT SHOULD BE SITUATED NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS DRIER...WARMER
AIR SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
A DEEPENING TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
EASTWARD...CURRENTLY EXPECTING A NARROW FRONTAL BAND TO MOVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH GFS ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS OPERATIONAL
EC...AND GFS DIFFER AS TO STRENGTH...TIMING AND POSITION. DRIER
FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN THIS SYSTEMS WAKE.  

HIGH TEMPS IN PA ON TUESDAY MAY GET INTO THE U60S NORTH AND U70S
IN THE SOUTH...OR ABOUT 15F TO 18F ABOVE NORMALS. THE MAIN SFC LOW
WITH THIS LONG- WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM LS TO JAMES BAY LATE
TUES INTO WED. WILL THEREFORE DRAW THE BELL CURVE OF POPS TO
SURROUND TUES NIGHT...BUT ALSO LINGER SOME SLIGHT CHCS IN THE SRN
TIER FOR WED.

THE CONFIDENCE LOWERS SOME FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT ANOTHER NRN STREAM SYSTEM ZIPS IN FROM THE WEST
LATER IN THE WEEK...AND MAY HAVE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
BEHIND IT. THE TROUGH AND COLDER AIR APPEAR TO MOVE OUT VERY
QUICKLY IN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE NE OF OUR
AREA THIS EVENING. 

SOME MVFR CIGS AT BFD AT JST AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING...PERHAPS AT AOO FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

IT WILL BE WINDY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON WITH THE
FROPA...AND ONCE THE SECOND PUSH OF COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES
IN DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

DID HIT CLDS HARDER ON SUNDAY THAN GUIDANCE...GIVEN AREA 
DROPPING SE FROM UPPER LAKES AREA.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. 
TUE AND TUE NIGHT...GUSTY WINDS/SHRA AND AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT...MAINLY OVR THE W MTNS. 
WED AND THUR...BRIEF MVFR AND A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY
WED...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN



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