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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 171938
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
338 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT...BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH CLEARED THE COAST
EARLIER IN THE DAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND COLD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ITS ALL OVER EXCEPT FOR THE WIND...WIDESPREAD BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. STILL SOME >40 MPH GUSTS
UP HERE ON THE ROOF...WITH METARS REPORTING SOME 32-34KT GUSTS
OVER THE LOWER SUSQ. IMPRESSIVE COMPRESSIONAL/DOWNSLOPE WARMING
HAS OCCURRED OVER THE LOWER SUSQ...WHERE WE THOUGHT HIGHS WOULD
REACH 60 OR MORE. READINGS BY DUSK SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. IT WILL 
FEEL LIKE MID WINTER AGAIN TONIGHT...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 
TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE UPPER PLAINS TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP
BREEZY CONDITIONS GOING AT LEAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.

VERY LOW PWAT AND FROZEN LAKES EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES THROUGHOUT. ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 30S TO MID
40S...AND SHOULD STILL SEE SOME MID 20KT WIND GUSTS IN THE MORNING
WITH CHANNELED NORTHWEST FLOW AND MODERATE MIXING PERSISTING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIR WX...LGT WIND AND STILL COOL CONDS EXPECTED THURSDAY...AS
SFC HIGH PASSES OVR PA. BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE NOW SUPPORTING
THE LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN PA FRIDAY...AS SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTS THRU THE REGION. GEFS/ECENS BOTH INDICATE
SFC LOW REMAINS WEAK AS IT TRACKS SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE.
HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF WEAK SFC LOW AND HIGH OFF THE NEW ENG
COAST...SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW/OVERRUNNING FOR A
LIGHT TO MOD PRECIP EVENT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ANY WARM UP
DURING THE DAY ALLOWS THE SNOW TO MELT AND FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX
FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO OCCUR. THOUGH ATTM...GEFS PLUMES AND MEAN 8H
0C ISOTHERM IN ECENS SUGGEST MOST LIKELY PTYPE IS SNOW...THOUGH IT
COULD SWITCH IN THE AFTERNOON SO SOME RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE S
TIER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY EVENING. 

A FAIR AMT OF AGREEMENT THRU NEXT WEEKEND AMONG MED RANGE
GUIDANCE...ALL OF WHICH INDICATE A DEEP TROUGH FORMING OVR THE
NORTHEAST CONUS IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING RIDGE ON THE PACIFIC
COAST. 00Z GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF ALL INDICATE PASSAGE OF A SHARP
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY WELL BLW NORMAL TEMPS
SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR TO MFR CONDS PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 30KTS LOWER SUSQ VALLEY TAF SITES. ISOLD SHRA
THRU 22Z MAINLY NORTH OF KIPT. 

THE GUSTY NW WIND OF 25 TO 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. MVFR CIGS EARLY
TONIGHT IMPROVING TO VFR...REMAINDER OF AIRFIELDS WILL BE VFR
OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. 

OUTLOOK...

WED...VFR. GUSTY WINDS 20-30KTS FROM 290-320.

THU...VFR/NO SIG WX. 

THU-NGT-FRI...MVFR/IFR PSBL IN RA/SN ASSOCD WITH LOW PRES TRACKING
ALONG MID-ATLC/NORTHEAST COAST. 

SAT...MVFR/IFR PSBL NW 1/2 IN -SHSN.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...DEVOIR/LAMBERT



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