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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 021021
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
521 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY. AN AREA OF 
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A BOUT OF SIGNIFICANT WINTRY/MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN MAINLY RAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING JUST EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT ATTM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY JUST SOME BRIEF SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE NW MTNS WHERE
SCTD-NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR INTO THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A COATING TO ONE INCH
ACROSS THE NE MTNS...WITH LOCALLY UP TO 2 INCHES ON THE WEST
FACING SLOPES/RIDGETOPS TO THE WEST OF RT 219. CONTINUED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 12 FOR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS OF SWRN
PENN.

MODERATELY STRONG SFC-850 MB COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE
CFRONT WILL CAUSE THE TEMPS TO STEADILY DROP ANOTHER 7-8 DEG F 
BY SUNRISE TODAY IN MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN TODAY AS THE
CURRENT WEATHER SYSTEM/COLD FRONT SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. OTHER
THAN THE USUAL POST FRONTAL SCATTERED SNOWS SHOWERS...FAVORING
THE WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
IMPROVING OVERALL THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. LOTS OF SUNSHINE
POSSIBLE FOR THE SE HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTN...BUT CLOUDS MAY
HANG TOUGH ALL DAY OVER THE WESTERN MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WIND WILL BE SHORT
LIVED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF
STORM SYSTEMS IS SLATED TO ENTER THE LOCAL WEATHER SCENE. THIS ONE
PROMISES MORE OF A MESSY OUTCOME AS IT SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR
NW...MEANING WARM AIR EVENTUALLY INVADING THE REGION...WITH A SNOW
TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN RAIN SCENARIO.

SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST PART OF THE MIDWEEK
STORM AS WE ARE PROGGED TO WARM ALOFT RATHER QUICKLY. WITH A DEEP
SNOW PACK AND A LOT OF COLD AIR TO DISPLACE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
A PERIOD OF ICING BEFORE WARM AIR EVENTUALLY CHANGES EVERYTHING TO
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST POPS SOME TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

THINK MAIN TYPE OF PCPN WILL BE RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED. DID
PUT SMALL AMTS OF .01 ICE ACROSS THE AREA...GIVEN THAT OBJECT
TEMPS WILL STILL LIKELY BE COLD. TEMPERATURES TUE NIGHT MAY 
DROP A LITTLE...BEFORE COMING BACK UP LATE.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FOR WED...TOOK SNOW SHOWERS OUT OF THE NW. TIGHT THICKNESS PATTERN
ACROSS THE AREA...SUPPORT A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NW PA
TO SE PA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR
NW...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY NW OF OUR AREA. LEFT POPS UP...THINK
FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT.

A TREND TOWARD COLDER WEATHER AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK...GIVEN
SPLIT FLOW.

PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE ONLY GOOD THING SEEMS TO
BE EACH ARCTIC SHOT IS A LITTLE LESS POTENT THAN THE LAST AS WE
LEAVE THE RECORD COLD OF FEBRUARY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WNW FLOW ESTABLISHING OVER CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS MORNING IN WAKE
OF EXITING STORM SYSTEM. OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES WILL HANG ON ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER
TERRAIN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...BUT BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE
CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MVFR TO
IFR VSBYS WILL IMPACT THE LOWER SUSQ THROUGH MID MORNING UNTIL WNW
WINDS INCREASE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. CENTRAL MTNS
MAINLY SEEING CIG REDUCTIONS TO MVFR...WHICH WILL ALSO LIFT LATER
THIS MORNING TO VFR. N/W HIGHER TERRAIN GETTING COMBO REDUCTIONS
OF BOTH CIGS/VSBYS WITH GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS WE/LL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE
UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND
REDUCED FLYING CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS AND LLWS
DEVELOPING LATE AFT AND LASTING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

THU...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS...LINGERING MVFR NW AND SE.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ024-
033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR



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