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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 201900
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
300 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER UNTIL A SHORT WAVE
BRINGS A FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. A
SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL THURSDAY AHEAD OF A ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM AROUND 60 SOUTHEAST TO THE
MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER NEW
ENGLAND EXTENDING INTO OUR REGION WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT SFC WINDS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. NOTHING MORE THAN
SCATTERED BUT DECREASING AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...IS EXPECTED FOR CLOUD COVER. NEARLY IDEAL COOLING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW MOST AREAS TO
RADIATE DOWN INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SFC RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND LOSES ITS GRIP OVER THE
REGION MONDAY...WHICH 850 MB TEMPS WARM TO THE 8 TO 10C RANGE.
THE AFTERNOON WILL WARM INTO THE 70S FOR MANY AREAS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACYHING FRONT...WHICH ISN'T EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL FORECASTS SYSTEMS ARE CONFIDENT A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY
WITH MODEL FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS SHOWING NEARLY 100 PERCENT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. MAINLY 0600 TO 1800 UTC IN WEST AND 1200 TO
0000 UTC IN EAST. THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN MOST SYSTEMS IMPLY A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. NOT A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

COLD AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM SUGGEST A SLIGHT CHANCE RESIDUAL
SHOWERS IN MOUNTAIN AND NORTHERN TEIR COULD MIX WITH SNOW
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT PROBS OF
PRECIPITATION IS LOW. MORE LIKE FLURRIES.

CHILLY DAY WEDNESDAY AND THEN REBOUNDING FOR A NICE WARM DAY ON
THURSDAY. 

THE GEFS AND CMCE ALL IMPLY INCREASED CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AHEAD
OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN IS PROBABLY EARLY FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
SYSTEM AS FORECAST IS WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED. NOT A SIGNIFICANT
EVENT AS CURRENTLY PREDICTED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL PA THROUGH MONDAY.

A THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NW TODAY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING TO
THE SE AS IT INCREASES TO 5-10 KTS DURING THE DAY. NEAR CALM WINDS
RETURN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...VFR

FRI...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR



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