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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 241141
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
741 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TODAY AND LAST INTO SATURDAY. A
MAINLY-DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL MIGRATE
OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING A WARM SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMEST DAY WILL PROBABLY BE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPSLOPE FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TEAMING UP TO EXPAND THE
LOW STRATUS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH ELEVATIONS A LITTLE FARTHER TO
THE EAST. THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA DO SEEM
TO BE INCHING EASTWARD JUST EVER SO SLIGHTLY. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE
DECREASING SLIGHTLY WITH THE SFC RIDGE STARTING TO MOVE IN.
HOWEVER...THE UPSLOPE FLOW LASTS INTO THE MORNING. SUNLIGHT AND
MIXING SHOULD HELP THE CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO MIX AWAY AND THE CLOUDS
IN THE EAST SHOULD MOVE A BIT QUICKER TO THE EAST AS THE SFC LOW
AND CIRCULATION FINALLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. BY THE END OF
THE DAY...THAT LOW SHOULD BE UP TO P.E.I. HIGHER CLOUDS ARE
NEARING AND WILL BE OVERHEAD DURING THE EVER- SHORTENING DAYTIME.
THIS WILL DIM THE SUN AFTER THE EXPECTED CLEARING OF THE LOW
CLOUDS. MAXES WILL

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GETS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SLACKENS THE WIND.
THE MINOR WORRY FOR TONIGHT IS THAT TEMPS MAY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR
A FROST IN THE CENTRAL COS. HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND DRAG SOME MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. MOST OF THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE N/W OF
IPT/UNV/AOO. STILL...THE TEMPS ARE MARGINAL WITH U30S A GOOD BET
AND M30S NOT SO PROBABLE DUE TO DEWPOINTS REMAINING AOA THE M30S. 

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD DAY TO TAILGATE...ALL DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE RISING TO BETWEEN 55F AND 65F AS 8H TEMPS
WILL BE HANGING BETWEEN 5C AND ALMOST 10C IN THE AFTN. A WEAK AND
DRY COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW BEFORE DARK AND SHOULD BE THROUGH
THE WHOLE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL FALL IN
THE NW...BUT ALL THESE SHOULD DRY UP AS THEY DESCEND THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP A BIT AND GET GUSTY AT AND JUST AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WELL-ALIGNED WIND PROFILE AND UP TO 50KT
WINDS AS CLOSE AS 5KFT OFF THE GROUND. WILL MENTION GUSTS INTO
THE 20S BUT DECOUPLING AROUND THE TIME OF PASSAGE MY KEEP THE
STRONGEST OF THE WINDS FROM GETTING DOWN TO THE SFC. THE WIND SAT
NIGHT WILL KEEP IT FROM GETTING TOO COLD WITH MINS EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A HIGH LEVEL OF AGREEMENT AMONG ALMOST ALL THE MED RANGE GUID
YIELDS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST OUT TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A WIDE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL SLIDE EAST JUST A BIT
WHILE FLATTENING OUT SOME. SFC HIGH OVER DIXIE WILL SLIDE EAST
TOWARD BERMUDA AND LEAD TO A WARM SRLY FLOW. A TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES MON AND TUES. HIGH TEMPS
ON TUESDAY MAY GET INTO THE U60S NORTH AND U70S IN THE SOUTH...OR
ABOUT 15F TO 18F ABOVE NORMALS. THE MAIN SFC LOW WITH THIS LONG-
WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM LS TO JAMES BAY LATE TUES INTO WED.
THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH OFF THE LOW WILL WHIP
THROUGH - PERHAPS FAIRLY DRY - LATE TUES AND TUES NIGHT. IT SHOULD
THEN HANG UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WILL THEREFORE DRAW
THE BELL CURVE OF POPS TO SURROUND TUES NIGHT...BUT ALSO LINGER
SOME SLIGHT CHCS IN THE SRN TIER FOR WED. THE CONFIDENCE LOWERS
SOME FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANOTHER
NRN STREAM SYSTEM ZIPS IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK...AND
MAY HAVE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON BEHIND IT IF THE EC IS YOUR
PREFERENTIAL MODEL DU JOUR. OTHER SOLNS ARE NOT QUITE SO PROFOUND
WITH THE SHARPNESS OF THE TROUGH AND COLDNESS OF THE AIRMASS
BEHIND IT. IN ANY CASE...THE TROUGH AND COLDER AIR APPEARS TO MOVE
OUT VERY QUICKLY IN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE LOW CIGS OVR THE
W MTNS CAUSED BY A COMBINATION OF MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND DIURNAL
COOLING OF BLYR. BOTH KBFD AND KJST ARE UNDER IFR CIGS AT 11Z...BUT
DIURNAL HEATING AND RESULTING MIXING OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT
SHOULD CAUSE ANY LOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP BTWN 12Z-14Z. HRRR/RAP
OUTPUT ALSO SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO WITH RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDS
BTWN 12Z-14Z. 

ELSEWHERE...DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD
ENSURE VFR CONDS ACROSS EASTERN PA THIS AM. KAOO WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN AND OUT OF MVFR CIGS BTWN 12Z-13Z.

THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD FEATURE A NEAR CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDS...AS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...FITZGERALD



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