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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 052043
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
343 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA BY LATER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO
THE STATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HAVE CANCELED PART OF THE WEATHER ADVISORY...OTHERWISE THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED.

AS OF MID DAY THE MOST INTENSE MESOSCALE SNOW BAND EXTENDS FROM
FRANKLIN COUNTY THROUGH LEBANON COUNTY. MORE OR LESS ON TRACK WITH
RAP PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF BEST FRONTOGENTIC FORCING. HRRR SHOWS
THE SNOW GRADUALLY SETTLING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 2-4
HOURS...WITH A RAPID TAPERING OFF AFTER 21Z. THIS SUPPORTS FINAL
SNOW TALLIES IN THE 6-10 INCH RANGE ON AVERAGE.

DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT
LEADING TO YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF WIDESPREAD LOWS OF ZERO OR BELOW.
AT THIS POINT...WE ARE COUNTING ON THE WIND TO DROP OFF ENOUGH TO
MINIMIZE WIND CHILLS... SO NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A MUCH BRIGHTER DAY FRIDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATOCU TO GATHER UNDER
THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
SHOULD MANAGE TO MIX WITH ANY CLOUDS THAT FORM.

ONCE AGAIN IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
ON SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN SW GRADIENT WINDS AND CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD PREVAIL NEAR
THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A NON-DIURNAL TREND
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS OCCURRING EARLY ACROSS THE NW MTNS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADY TO SLOW RISE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
MORE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TEMP CURVE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO
AROUND 10F OVER THE LOWER SQV. 

BROAD UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVE FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THERE ARE FEWER DIFFERENCES NOTED
OVERALL COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES WITH RESPECT TO THE
TIMING AND DEPTH OF EACH IMPULSE. ONE IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A SURFACE
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SAT
AND THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. AN ADDITIONAL IMPULSE WILL
TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATER SUN INTO EARLY
MON ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT. GIVEN THE FAST DEEPER LAYER WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION...THE AMPLITUDE OF EACH IMPULSE
SHOULD BE RATHER SMALL WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY QUITE LIMITED.
THEREFORE EXPECT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN ALLEGHENIES WITH 48 ACCUMS OF 1-2"
POSSIBLE OVER THE NW MTNS BY 12Z MON.

THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE AGREEABLE/CONSISTENT WITH THE
MAIN THEMES OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK. THESE
INCLUDE AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW ACROSS
SRN CANADA...AND SRN ROCKIES/PLAINS INTO MEXICO MEAN TROUGH AND
STRONG RIDGE E OF THE BAHAMAS. AS THE MEAN PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY FLATTER...CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN A MAINLY
DRY PERIOD WITH STEADILY INCREASING/MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY-MID MARCH CLIMATE NORMALS. 

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST OF THE FLYING AREA WILL REMAIN VFR NORTH OF THE BANDED
PRECIPITATION THAT IS CAUSING MVFR-IFR/LIFR FROM JOHNSTOWN EAST
THROUGH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LANCASTER-HARRISBURG LIKELY BEING THE
LAST TO ENJOY IN THE IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

EXPECT MOST TERMINALS TO BE VFR OVERNIGHT. JST MAY BE THE
EXCEPTION WITH LOW CLOUDS HANGING IN TOUGH UNDER THE UPSLOPE FLOW. 


OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN-MON...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR SE.

TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ036-
057>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
PAZ033>035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE



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