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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 170235
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1035 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MILD CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS A RETURN OF CHILLY AIR TO THE REGION LATER TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN OR
SNOW TO PENNSYLVANIA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
BLAST OF ICY AIR FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

USING THE RUC TO TIME THE CURRENT SHOWERS SHOWS ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS...BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN
DROPS OUT OF THE GR LAKES FOR THE AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD. 

IT WILL REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. MINS TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SFC LOW ZIPS EAST OF THE ADIRONDACKS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EARLY TUESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FINGERLAKES AND
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST PREVALENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG THE PA/NY BORDER AS COLDER AIR
WORKS IN. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS WITH INCREASINGLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS. EXPECT SOME 25 TO 30 KT GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE COLD AIR RUSHES SOUTH...BUT DOWNSLOPING INTO SOUTHEAST PA
WILL INITIALLY MAKE IT QUITE MILD. AS A RESULT...THE LOWER SUSQ
WILL PUSH 60F FOR HIGHS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH TUESDAY NIGHT BEING THE
COLDEST PERIOD OF THE WEEK. A MORE ZONAL PATTERN THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MAKE A SLIGHT
RECOVERY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
GFS/GEFS/EC INDICATE CONTINUED MAINLY DRY AND COOL COND1TIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY...THOUGH THE GFS/GEFS HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE EC FOR A QUASI SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING LATE IN
THE WEEK...AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AS DEEP COLD AIR
HOLDS TOUGH TO OUR NE...AND WEST TO SWRLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH TRIES TO PUMP HIGHER PWAT AIR NE FROM THE LOWER
MISS AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. THIS HIGHER MOISTURE COULD
BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF MOISTURE FRIDAY INTO EARLY WEEKEND. THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW A SFC LOW FORMING JUST OFF THE COAST
WHICH COULD BRING COLD AIR ADVECTION TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE QUESTION REMAINS ON PRECIP TYPE...HAVE
INCREASED POPS WITH RAIN FRIDAY EARLY...BUT SWITCHING TO SNOW AS
THE COLD AIR CREEPS IN. 850 MB TEMPS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE -16C TO
-21C RANGE. SO A MIX PRECIPITATION EVENT IS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY...INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MOVG SEWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THIS EVENING WITH
CIGS STAYING AOA 5KFT AGL. EXPECT VFR CONDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE LOWERING CONDITIONS UNTIL
CLOSER TO 12Z AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD THROUGH THE AIRSPACE.
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE
AIRSPACE /HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN REDUCTIONS AT BFD/JST IN ZOB
SECTOR DUE TO CAA/UPSLOPE/ WITH LOW END VFR PREVAILING IN THE
EASTERN SXNS. DONT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN ALTHOUGH
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR MIX/CHANGEOVER TO -SHSN
OVER THE WRN TAFS. GUSTY WINDS FROM 290-320 WILL BECOME THE MAIN
ISSUE INTO TUESDAY WITH FQNT GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE. LOOK
FOR CLEARING BY LATE TUESDAY ESP DOWNWIND OF THE WRN MTNS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MVFR CIGS PSBL NW. GUSTY WINDS 20-30KTS FROM 290-320. 

THU...VFR/NO SIG WX. 

THU-NGT-FRI...MVFR/IFR PSBL IN RA/SN ASSOCD WITH LOW PRES TRACKING
ALONG MID-ATLC/NORTHEAST COAST. 

SAT...MVFR/IFR PSBL NW 1/2 IN -SHSN.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



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