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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 232344
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
744 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD THIS EVENING WILL 
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MIGRATE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5
TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS IS NEARLY STATIONARY N TO S FROM POTTER
COUNTY SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN CENTRE AND WESTERN FRANKLIN
COUNTIES THIS EVENING. CLEARING LINE WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD TONIGHT...BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WHILE IT WILL REMAIN
BREEZY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS...WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD INTO SOUTHWEST PA BY 12Z FRI. THE
GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP MINS WARMER IN THE EAST...WITH TEMPS
POSSIBLY COLDER THAN FCST IF MORE BREAKS DEVELOP THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. CURRENT CLOUD TRENDS INDICATE MILDER READINGS
ARE MORE PRUDENT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN/OPEN AS
IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NNEWD INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME A MORE PROMINENT ROLE
INFLUENCING SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS FOR DAY 2. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH NO RAIN...MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY AND LOWER WINDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FCST ISSUE
IS PROBABLY WITH MIN TEMP FCST WITH DELICATE BALANCE BTWN DIURNAL
OR RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER SFC RIDGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL VERIFICATION RISK IS LKLY TO THE
DOWNSIDE BASED ON CONS FCST WHICH GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BTWN THE WARMER NAM/EC MOS AND THE COLDER GFS MOS. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY TRACKING FROM KY/WV THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS OVERALL QUITE TRANQUIL FOR THE MIDDLE OF
AUTUMN HERE IN THE NE U.S. 

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE EARLY ON /SATURDAY-SAT NIGHT/ WILL BE A
MODERATELY STRONG...BUT DRY UPPER SHORT WAVE AND SFC TROUGH MOVING
QUICKLY ESE ACROSS THE GLAKES REGION.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FRI NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO INCREASING CLOUDS /AND AN INCREASING
WESTERLY WIND SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING/ AS THE CFRONT
APPROACHES. WEST TO WNW WINDS SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT COULD GUST
BETWEEN 25-30 MPH AT TIMES.

MENTIONED JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS UP NORTH...WITH ANY
PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL PENN BEING IN THE FORM OF SCTD SPRINKLES
LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FROM AN ANTICIPATED SVRL HOUR
PERIOD OF BKN-OVC MID CLOUDS.

ASIDE FROM BKN-OVC AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW STRATO CU ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS SUNDAY WITH SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS...SUNDAY WILL BE
DRY AND 5-7F COOLER THAN THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE TEMP DEPT...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
WARMEST TEMPS IN THE WEEK AHEAD WILL LIKELY COME TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH A MDTLY STRONG DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F TUESDAY WILL BE 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL. SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS MAY SEE HIGH TEMP
DEPARTURES OF NEARLY +20F.

THE PRIMARY RAIN-MAKER /IF WE CAN EVEN CALL IT THAT/ COMES DURING
THE MID WEEK AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH...
BENEATH A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE SHEARING OUT TO THE
ENE ACROSS THE GLAKES AND SERN CANADA.

QPF APPEARS TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS TUESDAY NIGHT-WED NIGHT
FEATURE. LATEST ENSEMBLES AND 12Z U.S./EURO OPERATIONAL MODELS
POINT TWD GENERALLY 0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS.

A MINOR COOL DOWN AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC
FOR SHOWERS APPEARS LIKELY FOR LATE NEXT WEEK UNDER FAST WSW FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEARING SKIES
WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION FROM NW TO SE...WITH CLEAR SKIES
NOW AT KBFD...KJST AND KAOO. MVFR CIGS REMAIN ONLY AT KLNS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
UPPER/SFC LOWS PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST. KLNS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR BY SUNSET.

ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR VERY CERTAINTY TO CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...THERE IS SOME RISK OF LOW CIGS RETURNING EARLY FRI AM AT
KBFD AND KJST...THE RESULT OF PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW AND DIURNAL
COOLING OF MOIST BLYR.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...AM LOW CIGS POSS KBFD/KJST. COLD FROPA EXPECTED SAT
WITH PERIOD OF LOWERED CIGS/SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.

SUN-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER



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