Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
State College, PA banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4]



000
FXUS61 KCTP 270210
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
910 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY
THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE AWAY FROM CENTRAL PA.
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE KEYSTONE STATE 
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOTHING AS COLD AS WHAT WE SAW LAST WEEK.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE
WEST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SNOW 
WITH THE STORM OFF THE COAST HAS ENDED. TEMPERATURES WILL 
MODERATE THIS WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE 
SE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW EAST AND NORTH OF THE CWA NOW.
LAST OF THE TWO AREAS OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS NOW OUT OF THE 
AREA.

WHILE SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR FOR A FEW MORE 
HOURS...LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
THUS CANCELLED THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES.

WHILE THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE A LITTLE
BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...NO REAL COLD...WINDY CONDITIONS 
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. 

WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT FCST MIN TEMPS LATER THIS 
EVENING.

MOST AREAS RECEIVED BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES OF SNOW...BUT 
SOME LOCATIONS SAW AMTS UP TO 11 INCHES SO FAR.

UPPER STRASBURG IN FRANKLIN CO. HAD 11 INCHES.

KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS IN OUR PHLPNSCTP
PRODUCT...OR SUBMIT YOUR OWN ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TRANSITION TO COLD ADVECTION PATTERN WITH NW FLOW WILL BRING THE
USUAL GENERALLY LIGHT LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT...AND WILL
BECOME A BIT MORE NUMEROUS AS A NOTABLE SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH
THE FLOW. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS LIMITED.

THE AIR THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND OUR STORM WILL BE COLDER BUT NOT
ESPECIALLY SO...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. STILL A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN US EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL FLATTEN OUT INTO A BROAD ZONAL FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PROMPT A WARM-UP AS THE CYCLONE TRACK SHIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

THE SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
OUR STORM WILL BEGIN MODERATING BY SATURDAY...WITH READINGS IN THE
MILD RANGE TAKING OVER BY SUNDAY. 

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD...AND EVENTUALLY COOL US OFF 
A BIT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS ACCUMULATING SNOW ENDING OVER THE FAR ERN AIRSPACE
WITH MVFR-VFR CONDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PA ZNY SECTOR.
TROUBLE SPOT APPEARS TO BE OVER THE WRN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE
IN ZOB SECTOR WHERE SHALLOW MSTR AND WEAK FLOW ARE PRODUCING LOW
CIGS IN THE IFR TO VLIFR RANGE. WEAK UPSLOPE NW COMPONENT IS ALSO
CONTRIBUTING TO THE LOW CIGS WITH JST AT 1/4SM WITH FZFG. FEEL A
PERSISTENCE FCST MAY WORK BEST HERE WITH CONTINUED WEAK FLOW AND
UPSTREAM OBS NOT FAVORING IMPROVEMENT. SOME LAKE EFFECT -SHSN ARE
FCST TO DEVELOP INTO THURSDAY NGT OVER THE WRN 1/3 WHERE REDUCED
CONDS ARE LKLY TO PERSIST.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR WITH OCNL -SHSN WRN 1/3. VFR TO MVFR CIGS
CNTRL/EAST.

FRI...AM MVFR/-SHSN NW...OTHERWISE BCMG VFR. 

SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD -SHRA PSBL.

MON...COLD FROPA. MAINLY VFR. SCT -SHRA PSBL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/RXR
NEAR TERM...MARTIN/RXR
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/RXR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy