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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KGYX 241914
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
314 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA HAS BEEN GENERATING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
FURTHER AWAY FROM MAINE THIS EVENING THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND FOR FRIDAY PROVIDING A SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF NICE
WEATHER BEFORE SHOWERS MOVE BACK IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION 
SATURDAY BEFORE HEADING INTO THE MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. THE LOW 
REMAINS OVER THE MARITIMES ON MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON TUESDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL 
SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH 
PRESSURE STAYS WELL TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHOULD HAVE A RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT IN STORE FOR NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET
WHEN THEY WILL FINALLY DECOUPLE. AS EXPECTED...WINDS TODAY HAVE
HELD JUST SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS THE LOW OFF THE COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA PULLS FURTHER AWAY EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE AND SKIES
TO CLEAR OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM A BIT WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TOP OUT NEAR NORMAL.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE IN DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION BEGINNING OVER SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING NORTH BY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF LIFTS NE ACROSS THE REGION ON 
SATURDAY. A PRIMARY LOW TO OUR NW MOVES SLOWLY NE AND WEAKENS WHILE 
A SECONDARY LOW ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING S FROM THE 
PRIMARY LOW STRENGTHENS TO OUR S AND MOVES OUT TO SEA. THIS COMPLEX 
WX PATTERN WILL BRING RAIN...OR EVEN A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN WITH 
COLD TEMPS AND A RAW EASTERLY WIND ON SATURDAY. THE VERTICAL TEMP 
PROFILE SHOWS THE COLUMN COOLING DUE TO EVAPORATION AND VERTICAL 
MOTION... WITH TEMPS COLD ENOUGH OT SUPPORT SNOW OR MIXED RAIN AND 
SNOW OVER MORE NRN AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WHILE OTHER AREAS ARE 
TOO WARM AT LOW LEVELS TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRCP. 

THE SECONDARY LOW BECOMES THE MAIN LOW AND MOVES E INTO THE 
MARITIMES SATURDAY NGT AS THE PRIMARY LOW WASHES OUT. THIS BRINGS AN 
END TO STEADIER PRCP BUT WITH A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW 
DRIFTING OVERHEAD WE CAN EXPECT AT LEAST SHOWERS...OF RAIN OR SNOW 
...TO PERSIST THRU THE NGT AS TEMPS CONT TO COOL DOWN. AGAIN THE 
BEST CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE N/MT AREAS. THE UPPER LEVEL 
CUTOFF LOW MOVES VERY SLOWLY TO THE E ON SUNDAY AND WILL CONT TO 
GIVE US LOTS OF CLOUDS AND RAIN OR WET SNOW SHOWERS...WITH SNOW 
MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN N/MT AREAS DUE TO WARMING BOUNDARY 
LAYER DURING THE DAY.

THE CUTOFF LOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE MARITIMES ON MONDAY. 
THOUGH IT CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR WX THE IMPACT WILL LESSEN 
SOMEWHAT AS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT MOSTLY CONFINED 
TO THE N/MT AREAS WITH SNOW MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO 
WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS.

THE CUTOFF LOW FINALLY MOVES E AS A RIDGE ALOFT AND A WEAK SFC RIDGE 
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD E INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS BREAK IN 
THE WET WX WILL BE SHORT LIVES AS A LARGE CUTOFF LOW ALOFT MOVES IN 
FROM THE WRN U.S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING A SFC LOW AND 
LEADING WARM FNT NE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AT THE SAME TIME HIGH 
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED WELL TO OUR N OVER ERN CANADA. THESE TWO 
WX SYSTEMS WILL TRY TO IMPACT OUR WX...WITH THE HIGH PROVIDING FAIR 
WX TO OUR N AND THE LOW PROVIDING WET WX TO OUR S...WITH THE FCST 
AREA IN BETWEEN WITH THE CHC OF RAIN GREATER OVER SRN AREAS AND 
LOWER OVER NRN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...PREVIOUS FCST AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR 
THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN TAF
SITES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
PERIODS OF RAIN OR EVEN MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. MVFR POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY N/MT AREAS IN RAIN OR MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE THIS
EVENING AND DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY. SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO
RESPOND BUT SHOULD BE IMPROVING BEFORE MORNING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...E NE FLOW INCREASES
SATURDAY WITH MINIMAL SCA WIND GUSTS AND SCA SEAS POSSIBLE OVER
THE OPEN WATERS. NW FLOW PICKS UP BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW AND FNT
SUNDAY THRU MONDAY WITH SCA WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. SEAS MAY REACH
MINIMAL SCA LEVELS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AS WELL. WINDS DROP OFF
MONDAY NGT AND TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BUT
SEAS MAY BE SLOWER TO DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS OVER THE OPEN WATERS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YORK COUNTY THROUGH 8PM
THIS EVENING. MOST METAR SITES IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE ARE
REPORTING CONDITIONS THAT MEET OR EXCEED RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA. NEW HAMPSHIRE FOREST SERVICE MAINTAINS THAT FUELS ARE
TOO WET TO BURN SO NO HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ018-023.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

POHL/CAPRIOLA







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