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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KGYX 030507
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1207 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT TRYING TO PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION. AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO OUR NORTH...IT WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT...HAVE SET POPS TO ZERO THRU THE REST OF TONIGHT...AND
ADJUST WINDS A BIT...AS THEY ARE STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF
DIMINISHING...AND SHOULD DO SO FAIRLY QUICKLY BETWEEN NOW AND
SUNRISE AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS A BIT...WITH
MINS JUST A BIT HIGHER IN SOME SPOTS AS WINDS HANG ON AN HOUR OR
TWO LONGER...WHICH WILL AFFECT POTENTIAL OF RAD COOLING.

745PM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO CONTINUE SNOW SHOWERS FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. THESE CONVECTIVELY GENERATED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIE OFF
AS THE EVENING GOES ON AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS LOST. SOME OF
THESE HAVE MANAGED TO SNEAK PAST THE MOUNTAINS IN SPITE OF GENERAL
DOWNSLOPING... SO HAVE INCLUDED LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALL THE
WAY TO THE COAST. MENTIONED HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS SINCE BRIEF HEAVY
SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST.

430PM UPDATE... 
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE PATCHY BLOWING SNOW AS
BLOWING SNOW HAS BEEN NOTED WHERE LARGE FIELDS OF SNOW GIVE THE
WIND ENOUGH FETCH TO PICK UP SNOW.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING AS A COLD
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE UPSLOPING SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL COME TO AN END BY EARLY EVENING. BY LATER
TONIGHT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DIMINISH AND BY MORNING MORNING
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT ALLOWING SOME DECOUPLING AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN SOME SPOTS AS SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. USED A BLEND OF THE
MODELS TO TAKE A STAB AT THE OVERNIGHT MINS BUT DEPENDING ON WHEN
THE WINDS QUIT COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE ON LOWS. SOME SPOTS MAY
END UP COLDER THAN FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ON TUESDAY THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR SOUTH IN THE MORNING AND THEN
SHIFT OFF SHORE BY LATE IN THE DAY. SKIES WILL START OUT SUNNY BUT
BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WITH MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE RIDGE AXIS.
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHWEST NH AND
THEN RAPIDLY NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING. WENT WITH VERY HIGH POPS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT SINCE ITS A WIDESPREAD WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERRUNNING EVENT
AND QPF SHOULD BE IN THE .2-.4 RANGE GIVING GENERALLY A 3-6 INCH
RANGE OF SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT.

PTYPE...GENERALLY ALL SNOW EXCEPT IT MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH SOME
SLEET OR RAIN BEFORE ENDING OVER SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL ME...WITH
PERHAPS SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. PREFER THE
COLDER GFS.

AS FAR AS TIMING...THE SNOW SHOULD BE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND TOWARD MORNING IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANY PRECIPITATION ENDS EARLY WED MORNING. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW MAY
FALL ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
NORTHERN FRINGE OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BRUSHES US.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY
POISED TO AFFECT OUR REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY LOWERING TO IFR
IN SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...IFR POSSIBLE IN LINGERING WINTRY PRECIP EARLY
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE MHT/PSM/CON LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WE GET BRUSHED WITH SNOW FROM A
SYSTEM MOVING WELL TO OUR SOUTH. VFR LATER THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE CONTINUED THE GALES TONIGHT. HIGH PRES SETTLES
OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS SO
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TOWARD MORNING AND INTO TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND REACH SCA
CRITERIA. 

LONG TERM...SCA WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR 
     ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



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