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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KGYX 241501 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1001 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND WILL
BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED POP TO BETTER REFLECT LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...AS PCPN QUICKLY MOVES E OUT OF THE AREA. LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...PATCHY DRIZZLE...AND SCT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
BEHIND THE MAIN SHIELD OF PCPN. HAVE ALSO UPDATED WINDS TO REFLECT
GUSTY SELY DOWNSLOPE ALONG NW FACING MTNS IN THE NRN ZONES. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED INTO NH AND EASTERN
MAINE ALREADY AS OF 7 AM. A COUPLE SITES REPORTED MINI HEAT
BURSTS...INCLUDING LANCASTER AND WHITEFIELD...WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING 8-10 DEGREES OR MORE WITHIN AN HOUR. THESE SITES ARE
BENEFITING FROM STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AS TURN TURN SSE AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT. STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE
ENDING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
EXCEPT TO INPUT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 40S
AND 50S AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR INITIALLY. A COOL FRONT
DOES MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY
AT THE SURFACE. THIS ALONG WITH DRIER UPPER LEVELS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR WILL HELP CLEAR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TUESDAY...MAKING IT A
WARM AND DRY DAY (IF A LITTLE WINDY). DIURNAL RANGES MAY ONLY BE A
COUPLE DEGREES IN THE NORTH TO SEVERAL ACROSS THE SOUTH (LOWER
40S TO MID 50S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT 
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT ENHANCING
CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY KICKING OFF A FEW FLURRIES. MID LEVEL
OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING HIGH
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS
FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING SNOW TO 
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. NEW GFS SLIGHTLY 
COLDER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF. THIS 
SOLUTION WOULD KEEP PRECIP ALL SNOW EVEN IN COASTAL AREAS WHERE 
THE HIGHEST TOTALS WOULD BE FOUND. SLIGHTLY COLDER SOLUTION NOTED 
IN THE NEW ECMWF BUT WOULD STILL LIKELY SEE SOME MIXING IN
COASTAL ZONES. ECMWF ALSO STICKING WITH QPF AMOUNTS NEARLY DOUBLE
THAT OF THE GFS. SO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY. POTENTIAL
FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS THERE BUT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ON
WATCHES AT THIS POINT FOR ABOVE MENTIONED REASONS.

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE 
CONTINUES NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES. IF CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS 
HOLD WILL LIKELY SEE THE BULK OF THE SNOW FALLING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING DAY. 
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

WEAK SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME AREAS SEEING SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT MORNING CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WAS TIMING OF HEAVY
RAIN THIS MORNING AND ITS IMPACTS ON CEILINGS. RAIN WILL TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON TO DRIZZLE BUT LOW STRATUS
WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS NO COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO SCOUR
MOISTURE OUT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE VERY GUSTY
FOR A FEW HOURS WITH LLWS THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM...VFR TUESDAY NIGHT. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY WHERE A
SCA IS IN EFFECT. WILL NEED SCAS FOR ALL MARINE ZONES ONCE GALE
WARNINGS EXPIRE LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



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