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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KGYX 250405
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1205 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE NEAR
NOVA SCOTIA TRACKS FURTHER EASTWARD. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY PROVIDING A
SHORT-LIVED PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER BEFORE SHOWERS MOVE BACK IN
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BEFORE HEADING INTO THE MARITIMES ON
SUNDAY. THE LOW REMAINS OVER THE MARITIMES ON MONDAY. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON TUESDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STAYS WELL TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

1155 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO ADJUST 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT
MESONET AND SATELLITE TREND.


1040 PM...A QUICK UPDATE MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
T/TD/WIND/SKY BASED ON CURRENT CONDS...ALTHOUGH NOTHING THAT
CHANGES THE OVERALL FORECAST VERY MUCH. WIND SWILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...AND SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLEAR.

745 PM...UPDATE TO END THE RED FLAG IN YORK CTY...AND TO GENERALLY
TREND DOWN THE WINDS THIS THIS EVENING AS THE SFC LOW HEADS
EAST...AND HIGH PRES NOSES IN LATE TONIGHT. ALREADY SEEING THE
GUSTS DIMINISH...AND SHOULD SEE THE GUSTS END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT.  

PREVIOUSLY...SHOULD HAVE A RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT IN STORE FOR
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
AROUND SUNSET WHEN THEY WILL FINALLY DECOUPLE. AS EXPECTED...WINDS
TODAY HAVE HELD JUST SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS THE LOW OFF THE
COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA PULLS FURTHER AWAY EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE
AND SKIES TO CLEAR OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM A BIT WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TOP OUT NEAR NORMAL.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE IN DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION BEGINNING OVER SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING NORTH BY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF LIFTS NE ACROSS THE REGION ON 
SATURDAY. A PRIMARY LOW TO OUR NW MOVES SLOWLY NE AND WEAKENS WHILE 
A SECONDARY LOW ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING S FROM THE 
PRIMARY LOW STRENGTHENS TO OUR S AND MOVES OUT TO SEA. THIS COMPLEX 
WX PATTERN WILL BRING RAIN...OR EVEN A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN WITH 
COLD TEMPS AND A RAW EASTERLY WIND ON SATURDAY. THE VERTICAL TEMP 
PROFILE SHOWS THE COLUMN COOLING DUE TO EVAPORATION AND VERTICAL 
MOTION... WITH TEMPS COLD ENOUGH OT SUPPORT SNOW OR MIXED RAIN AND 
SNOW OVER MORE NRN AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WHILE OTHER AREAS ARE 
TOO WARM AT LOW LEVELS TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRCP. 

THE SECONDARY LOW BECOMES THE MAIN LOW AND MOVES E INTO THE 
MARITIMES SATURDAY NGT AS THE PRIMARY LOW WASHES OUT. THIS BRINGS AN 
END TO STEADIER PRCP BUT WITH A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW 
DRIFTING OVERHEAD WE CAN EXPECT AT LEAST SHOWERS...OF RAIN OR SNOW 
     TO PERSIST THRU THE NGT AS TEMPS CONT TO COOL DOWN. AGAIN THE 
BEST CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE N/MT AREAS. THE UPPER LEVEL 
CUTOFF LOW MOVES VERY SLOWLY TO THE E ON SUNDAY AND WILL CONT TO 
GIVE US LOTS OF CLOUDS AND RAIN OR WET SNOW SHOWERS...WITH SNOW 
MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN N/MT AREAS DUE TO WARMING BOUNDARY 
LAYER DURING THE DAY.

THE CUTOFF LOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE MARITIMES ON MONDAY. 
THOUGH IT CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR WX THE IMPACT WILL LESSEN 
SOMEWHAT AS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT MOSTLY CONFINED 
TO THE N/MT AREAS WITH SNOW MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO 
WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS.

THE CUTOFF LOW FINALLY MOVES E AS A RIDGE ALOFT AND A WEAK SFC RIDGE 
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD E INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS BREAK IN 
THE WET WX WILL BE SHORT LIVES AS A LARGE CUTOFF LOW ALOFT MOVES IN 
FROM THE WRN U.S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING A SFC LOW AND 
LEADING WARM FNT NE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AT THE SAME TIME HIGH 
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED WELL TO OUR N OVER ERN CANADA. THESE TWO 
WX SYSTEMS WILL TRY TO IMPACT OUR WX...WITH THE HIGH PROVIDING FAIR 
WX TO OUR N AND THE LOW PROVIDING WET WX TO OUR S...WITH THE FCST 
AREA IN BETWEEN WITH THE CHC OF RAIN GREATER OVER SRN AREAS AND 
LOWER OVER NRN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...PREVIOUS FCST AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR 
THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVE...WITH SUSTAINED DROPPING TO 10 KTS OR LESS AROUND MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN TAF SITES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS
RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
PERIODS OF RAIN OR EVEN MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. MVFR POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY N/MT AREAS IN RAIN OR MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...AT 1040 PM...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA FOR THE BAYS.
WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BORDERLINE FOR A SEVERAL MORE HOURS INTO
THE OVERNIGHT...DROPPING BLO SCA BY DAYBREAK. CONDS REMAIN BLO SCA
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...E NE FLOW INCREASES
SATURDAY WITH MINIMAL SCA WIND GUSTS AND SCA SEAS POSSIBLE OVER
THE OPEN WATERS. NW FLOW PICKS UP BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW AND FNT
SUNDAY THRU MONDAY WITH SCA WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. SEAS MAY REACH
MINIMAL SCA LEVELS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AS WELL. WINDS DROP OFF
MONDAY NGT AND TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BUT
SEAS MAY BE SLOWER TO DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS OVER THE OPEN WATERS.

&&


.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES






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