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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KGYX 190124
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
924 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH
WINDS FINALLY EASING UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD IN OVERHEAD. OUR NEXT STORM WILL TRACK TO OUR
SOUTH AND APPEARS TO JUST GRAZE THE AREA WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AND SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
920 PM UPDATE: INPUT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES WERE NEEDED.  REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WINDY CONDITIONS...AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
BE THE RULE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT BUT STILL REMAIN UP IN MANY AREAS. COLD WIND CHILLS WILL
RESULT. UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL GRADUALLY THIN THIS
EVENING AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BREEZY AND COLD WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS THEY HAVE BEEN HERE
ON WEDNESDAY. SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. FAIR WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS FINALLY GOING CALM WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
START OFF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL
SLIDE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THIS LOW TRACKING OFF
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEING WEST TO
EAST...WITH THIS TRACK THE LOW WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON US
OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER...THE 12Z EURO DIGS A TROUGH
AT 500MB AND THE LOW PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY...AND
IT RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES IN THE GULF OF MAINE BEFORE HEADING UP
TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF OUR COASTAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW THIS
IS THE OUTLIER...BUT WILL JUST HAVE TO WATCH THE TRENDS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY
BRINGING VERY COLD INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS.
AFTER THAT IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH PRESS WILL BE OVERHEAD FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOME MECHANICAL TURBULENCE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT AT TIMES.

LONG TERM...COASTAL LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING MAY BRING SOME MVFR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
COLD FRONT PASSES ON SUNDAY AND WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS
AND ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS TO MOUNTAINS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALES CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING TO SCA THU
AND SUB-SCA THU NIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSING OF AN ARCTIC FRONT
ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THAT
MAY REACH MARGINAL GALE STRENGTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH DEVELOPMENT
AND TRACK OF COASTAL LOW ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT FOR NOW IT
LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
 



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