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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KGYX 011040
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
640 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST TODAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS...MAINLY FOR THE CONTINUATION OF PATCHY
DENSE FOG AND A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN FACT...WE HAVE ISSUED AN SPS FOR DIFFICULT DRIVING
CONDITIONS IN SOME COMMUNITIES THIS MORNING DUE TO THE DENSE FOG.

OTHERWISE...ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO SOME OF THE GRIDS. LOWERED
POPS THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER. HAVE INTRODUCED FOG INTO TONIGHTS FORECAST AS WELL.

PREV DISC...
THE DISTURBANCE THAT TRIGGERED THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
HAS PASSED TO OUR EAST. STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THEREFORE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A
STRAY SHOWER TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS WELL. AREAS OF
FOG THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND LIFT THIS MORNING AS
WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
PATCHY FOG FORMS AGAIN TONIGHT AND MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

POPS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTAIN MORE MOISTURE THAN THE LAST
SYSTEM...SO SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. LATEST MESOSCALE
MODELS SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE LINE SEGMENTS WITHIN THIS
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS IT DOES SO... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. SHOULD SEE CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
DOWNSLOPING... SO WARMEST AREAS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WHERE HIGHS
WILL REACH THE LOW 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND
PLENTY OF SUN. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
WITH A SEABREEZE AT THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR
INTO THE AREA... AND MUCH OF THE REGION WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

GFS MODEL HAS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ALONG IT. ECMWF DELAYS THE
FRONT UNTIL SATURDAY. HAVE INCLUDED POP FOR BOTH PERIODS AS WELL
AS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR TIMING UNCERTAINTY OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LIFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY BEGIN TO LIFT.  

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF NOCTURNAL FOG AT
THE USUAL SPOTS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS ON THE WATERS...BUT LOW VISIBILITY THIS
MORNING.

LONG TERM...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
QUIET CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$ 



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