Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Gray/Portland banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4]



000
FXUS61 KGYX 040004 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
704 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT TRYING TO
PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO
OUR NORTH...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND
CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DRAG
TRAILING WARM AND COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE REGION THIS EVENING IS
ACCOMPANIED BY SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. TIME OF ARRIVAL HAS
SLOWED SOMEWHAT AND THIS HAS TO DO WITH ALL THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND
TOP DOWN SATURATION TAKING ITS TIME. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS... QPF...
AND HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WITH
BRING A BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
LASTING ABOUT 6 HOURS. MODELS AGREE ON TIMING. SNOW BEGINS IN
SOUTHWEST NH BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN QUICKLY SPREADS NORTH
AND EAST AND OVERSPREADS THE REST OF NORTHERN NH AND ALL OF
SOUTHWEST ME THIS EVENING. THE GFS IS THE WETTEST MODEL WITH CLOSE
TO .50 QPF OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE OTHER MODELS IN THE RANGE
OF .25-.30. USED A COMPROMISE. OVERALL MOSTLY A 3-6 INCH SNOWFALL
EXPECTED EXCEPT OVER SOUTHEAST NH AND MAYBE COASTAL SOUTHWEST
MAINE WHERE AMOUNTS COULD BE IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE DUE TO A BRIEF
CHANGEOVER TO A MIXED BAG BEFORE ENDING. SNOW RATIOS OF 10-13:1
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO A WET SNOW IS EXPECTED. ALL MODELS
QUICKLY SHUT OFF THE QPF AFTER 06Z BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
LINGERING PRECIPITATION FOR A FEW MORE HOURS LATER SO WILL KEEP
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN PLACE ENDING AT 12Z.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY ON THE RISE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT SO
DID NOT USE A DIURNAL TOOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WE BREAK OUT INTO THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE LOWER LEVELS. H85
TEMPERATURES A BALMY 0 TO -5C SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE 40S AS SOME SUN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE DAY
WEARS ON AND A DRY SLOT MOVES THROUGH BY LATE MORNING. 

A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT
SOME CLOUDS WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS A COLD FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND WE REMAIN ON
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY.

USED A BLEND OF THE THE MODELS FOR TEMPERATURES WED AND WED NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING
SNOW TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA ON THURS WILL BE SHUNTED OUT TO SEA
BEFORE IT CAN BRING US ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. A FEW FLURRIES
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST ZONES THEN...BUT THAT/S ABOUT IT.
OTHERWISE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. A WARM UP IS QUITE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR TONIGHT IN SNOW. THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR BY WED MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL
REACH SCA CRITERIA BY LATER THIS EVENING SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED
AND WILL CONTINUE INTO WED OVER THE OUTER WATERS INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME THU
THROUGH SUN. THE STRONGEST OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED ON SAT WHEN GUSTS
MAY APPROACH LOW-END GALE FORCE AT TIMES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR 
     MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR 
     NHZ001>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES



National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy