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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KGYX 171910
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
310 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT HAS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLS
THINGS BACK DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND A BROAD RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREAS OF CU WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET. THEREAFTER...A COLD FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH NORTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN REGIONS BY MORNING. THE ADVANCING CLOUDS WILL
PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG FROM FORMING IN THESE AREAS AS WELL.

ELSEWHERE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...WITH POCKETS OF DENSE FOG IN THE CT RIVER
VALLEY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD 40S THROUGHOUT THE REGION.   

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHERN AREAS WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT PRECIP
WILL BE AIDED BY UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO SOME OF THEIR COLDEST LEVELS OF THE YEAR. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW 32 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. THEREFORE...A FREEZE WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
USED A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE FRIDAY MORNING MINS. 

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
START OF THE PERIOD WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD UNDER ZONAL
FLOW AT 850MB - 500MB AS BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO OUR
EAST. THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
THIS WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT AT THE SURFACE. WAA
ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY WARM THINGS UP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND
MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY BUT MOSTLY CLOUDS
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP KEEP HI TEMPS FOR SATURDAY
SUBDUED.

SUNDAY IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE SUMMER AGAIN...AS MODERATE
WSW FLOW ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS NEARING 15C ACROSS THE SOUTH SHOULD
PUSH OUR SFC TEMPS INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SOLUTION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GFS ALONG WITH GEFS CONTINUE
TO BE PROGRESSIVE WITH A COLD FRONT AND IT MOVES IT THROUGH THE
CWA FAIRLY QUICKLY SUN NIGHT AND MON. WHILE THE 00Z EURO HAS SFC
WAVE DEVELOP SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND THE FRONT GETS HELD UP OVER
THE REGION WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A SOAKING RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TUE -
WED...INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF
ONCE AGAIN. GOOD NEWS IS THAT ALL GUIDANCE IS POINTING AT A BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER EASTERN CONUS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD
WHICH SHOULD BRING A NICE STRETCH OF WARM AND PLEASANT WEATHER
THAT SHOULD AT LEAST LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. 
 

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR VALLEY FOR IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS CAUSING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS FOR
HIE AND LEB.  

LONG TERM...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR VALLEY FOG
WHICH WILL BRING LEB AND HIE DOWN TO LIFR CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF
TIME DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A PASSING COLD FRONT SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS...BUT SOME OFF PERIOD SWELLS COMING IN FROM
EDOUARD COULD BRING SEAS TO NEAR 5 FEET.

LONG TERM...SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY AND LASTS INTO
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA...WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25KTS AND SEAS TO 5 FEET. AFTER SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.  



&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING 
     FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING 
     FOR NHZ001>006.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$ 



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