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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KGYX 190905
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
405 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO SATURDAY. AS
THE HIGHS BUILDS OVER NORTHERN MAINE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE AND MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT OCEAN EFFECT
SNOW. DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW TRACKING TO OUR
WEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHICH COULD BRING WINDY CONDITIONS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AROUND CHRISTMAS EVE. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY NIGHT/... 
NOT A WHOLE LOT GOING ON IN THE NEAR TERM...HOWEVER THE CLOUD
FORECAST HAS PROVEN TRICKY. DOWNSLOPING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IS
CAUSING CLEARING SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE ELSEWHERE THE
STRATUS IS GOING TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME GOING ANYWHERE AS IT GETS
TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION WITH RIDGE MOVING IN. COMBINE THAT
WITH LOW SUN ANGLE...AND AREAS AWAY FROM THE DOWNSLOPING WILL MOST
LIKELY REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY UNTIL DRIER AIR FINALLY
PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FRIDAY NIGHT AND TEMPS WILL DROP AS WE
SHOULD RADIATE NICELY. STILL THE COLDEST SPOTS SHOULD ONLY BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH WHILE WITH THE LACK OF SNOW
COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO COLD. SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A
FAIRLY NICE DAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH STAYING TO OUR SOUTH
AND THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACTIVITY OFF SHORE
SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING...IN BOTH NRN AND SRN
STREAM...OVER THE ATLANTIC BY MID-LATE WEEK...WHICH WILL BASICALLY
KEEP THE COLD AIR TO OUR N AND W...BUT WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEM TO TRACK TO OUR WEST AS WELL AND LIKELY BRING WINDY
CONDS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WED AND WED NIGHT. 

TO START OUT...SFC HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD OVER NRN ME...WITH
EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE HIGH PRODUCING ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE
GULF OF ME. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPIT OUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF
OVER SEACOAST NH AND MERRIMACK VLY REGION...AS WELL AS EASTERLY
UPSLOPE AREAS AS FAR INLAND AS THE MONADNOCKS...MAINLY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. FOR NOW CALLING THESE FLURRIES /OR SPRINKLES EVEN
RIGHT ON THE COAST/...BUT COULD TURN OUT TO BE MORE OF OCCNL VERY
LIGHT PRECIP WITH LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMS. ELSEWHERE..LOOK FOR
PARTLY - MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE N TO MID-UPPR 30S
ON THE COAST AND MERRIMACK VLY.

MONDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY..BUT M/CDY...AS WEAK LOW PASSES TO OUR S.
BY TUE...WILL SEE 500MB CLOSED LOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND
MIDWEST GO THRU SEVERAL CYCLES OF DEEPENING AND FILLING AS ENERGY
CONTINUES TO DIVE INTO IT...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NE INTO QUEBEC THU
INTO FRI. WILL FIRST SEE A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP LATE TUE INTO TUE
EVENING...AS WEAK SFC LOW MOVES TO OUR NW...BUT MAIN EVENT WILL
BE WED INTO THU AS SFC LOW OVER OHIO VLY BOMBS OUT AS IT TRACKS
NWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS TRY TO PRODUCE SFC LOW TO THE
EAST OVER MID-ATLANTIC REGION...BUT ANY LOW THAT DOES DEVELOP
LOOKS TO TRACK TO OUR WEST AS IT GETS PULLED BACK TOWARD TO THE
STACKING MAIN SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP THE COLD
AIR AWAY...AND BRING A MAINLY RAIN EVENT TO THE REGION WITH THE
BULK OF THE PRECIP FALLING WED INTO WED NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER SNOWS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
MTNS...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY RAIN FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
CWA. ALSO...WILL BE WINDY AS LOW LVL WAA JET DEVELOPS EAST OF THE
TRIPLE POINT WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS WED COULD APPROACH
50 IN SOME SPOTS AS THE WARM AIR WORKS IN.

LOOK FOR DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO WORK IN FROM THE SW BEHIND THE
SYSTEM WITH PRECIP ENDING AND PARTIAL CLEARING. JUST THE THREAT
OF RA/SN SHOWERS IN GUSTY WEST FLOW WITH HIGHS STILL ABV NORMAL IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY IN THE CT
RIVER VALLEY AND MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...ALTHOUGH SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW COULD PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR CONDS AT KPSM AND MAYBE KMHT
ON SUNDAY.



&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...THERE MAY BE A FEW WIND GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS BY
DAYBREAK...BUT WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EASE AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN SO DECIDED TO CANCEL SCA. NO FLAGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

LONG TERM...WATERS REMAIN GENERALLY QUIET SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE.
HIGH POTENTIAL FOR GALES WED NIGHT INTO THU. 

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
KISTNER/CEMPA



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