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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KGYX 301851
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
251 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME DRIER AIR AND CLEARING NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN
MAINE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...OTHERWISE CLOUDS WERE
REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS SHOULD FILL BACK IN TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUD AND FOG. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE EAST WITH
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MAINE BY DAWN. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM MID 40S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH TONIGHT. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW
PIVOTS SOUTHEAST AND SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT
IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD TOMORROW WITH AREAS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY STAYING DRY. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60 WITH WARMEST READINGS LIKELY UPPER
CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER GIVEN NO
PRECIPITATION AND THINNING CLOUD COVER.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES
OFFSHORE. WE'LL SEE BROKEN CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING.
LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.  

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE
THURSDAY FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW...HOWEVER
IT STALLS DUE TO BLOCKING FARTHER DOWNSTREAM. RESIDUAL WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS STALLED SYSTEM WILL KEEP THINGS MOIST
ALONG THE COAST BUT EXPECT FOG AND PERHAPS DRIZZLE AT THE MOST IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE. A FEW SHOWERS ATTEMPT TO BACK ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
AND MAY REACH AS FAR AS THE MIDCOAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A SPOKE OF
ENERGY/WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS BACK WEST FROM THE COASTAL STORM
AND PROVIDES A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY...AGAIN MAINLY
OFFSHORE.

THE COASTAL LOW FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AS A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
DEEPENS AND CLOSES OFF OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS IS A MUCH SHARPER BOUNDARY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
HEAVIER AND TOP AN INCH IN THE HEAVIER CELLS. ANTECEDENT CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDER WITH
-26 C ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE.

COLDER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THIS FRONT AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING...LOWERING TO IFR TONIGHT AND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP FOG...LOW CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS DRIZZLE AROUND THE COAST AND AS FAR INLAND AS KAUG
THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER ALONG THE MIDCOAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOWER CEILINGS IN HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SOME TSRA EXPECTED
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON...IMPROVING TO VFR WEST TO
EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
ONCE INCREASE BY LATER TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT AND
BUILDING SEAS. AN SCA HAS BEEN REISSUED FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS. 

LONG TERM...SEAS WILL BE 5-7 FT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OUTSIDE
THE BAYS AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSS THE WATERS. WINDS
MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST NEAR 25 KTS. WE WILL LIKELY ISSUE SMALL
CRAFTS DURING THESE TIMES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR 
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/HANES



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