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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KGYX 040217
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1017 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION AND WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE COAST INTO MIDWEEK AND ALLOW
FOR JULY-LIKE WEATHER SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... 
1015PM UPDATE...
MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS DIED DOWN BUT ONE MINOR LINE OF SHOWERS
HAS FORMED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE. THIS SHOULD EXIT IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A HUMID NIGHT TO START...
WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. BUT MUCH DRIER AIR IS FILTERING IN FROM
THE NORTH SO FOG MAY NOT LAST LONG IF IT FORMS.

415PM UPDATE...
CONVERGENT LINE WHICH HAS PRODUCED THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED TOWARD THE COAST... COLLIDING
WITH THE SEA BREEZE AS IT HAS DONE SO. ANY REMAINING ACTIVITY WILL
BE SCATTERED AND PUSHING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. MORE ACTIVITY
STILL POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HAVE ADJUSTED THE HOURLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO REFLECT EXPECTED
TIMING AND CONFIDENCE OF PRECIPITATION.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING
BRINGING AN END TO THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS..SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY
LATER TONIGHT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY ONCE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWERING DEWPOINTS AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN AIR
MASS SLOWLY ADVECTS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... 
ALL MODELS LATCH ONTO A LARGE SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WITH SUNNY
SKIES...COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES. FRIDAY NIGHT
CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE
PLACE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BE RATHER COOL BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER NEW ENGLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES OFF SHORE ON SUNDAY AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP
OVER THE CWA. PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO AROUND 10F TO 15F DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL. SOME LOCATIONS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA MAY EVEN BREAK 90F. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. WHILE IT WILL BRING SOME
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR IN ANY SCATTERED EARLY EVENING SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE
VFR. SOME VALLEY FOG IN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY PRODUCING LIFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. THE FOG MAY GENERATE
SOME IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BOTH OF THOSE NIGHTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
 
LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE



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