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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KGYX 152258
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
658 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN
HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT THEN CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HAVE UPDATED THE FCST. DROPPED THE WIND ADV SINCE THE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ARE NOT MEETING CRITERIA AND WILL STAY BELOW CRITERIA THRU
THE NGT. STILL SHOULD CONT TO BE WINDY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MUCH LESS
THAN EXPECTED BUT STILL SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL QPF THRU THE NGT.
BACKED OFF ON QPF AMOUNTS THRU THE NGT. COLD FNT MOVING THRU NH AT
THIS TIME WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM S TO W NW. STEADIER PRCP WILL
EASE UP A COUPLE HOURS OR SO AFTER THE FNT MOVES THRU AS COLDER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FNT. FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENT HAVE
LOWERED QPF AMOUNTS FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER WRN ZONES TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER OUR ERN MOST ZONES.

MANY RIVERS IN NH AND WRN MAINE ARE IN FLOOD OR RISING TO FLOOD
STAGE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...COASTAL AREAS ARE ESCAPING THE BRUNT
OF ANY FLOODING DUE TO LACK OF SNOW MELT AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH UP ALL AREAS DUE TO FLOODING
OR THE POTENTIAL THAT THE LARGER RIVERS MAY SWELL TO BANKFUL AS
CRESTS MOVE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN BRINGING THE RAIN
AND SNOW MELT FED WATERS.

AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FNT EXPECT PRCP TO MIX WITH THEN
CHANGE TO SN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET. BEST CHC FOR SN/SLEET WILL
BE ACROSS THE N/MT ZONES WHERE SOME LGT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. 
BLACK ICE MAY BECOME AN ISSUE IN THE N/MT ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK
AS TEMPS DROP QUICKLY BELOW FREEZING...AND INTO THE 20S IN MANY OF
THESE AREAS. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 30S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BUFFET THE REGION DURING THE MORNING BUT WILL
LET UP SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOST AREAS DOWNWIND OF
THE MOUNTAINS TO SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. FARTHER NORTH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL AGAIN DROP
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
NORTH AND MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLEAR AND VERY COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER
THE AREA. LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WILL DIP INTO THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUING TO HOLD POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. A CHILLY EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP
THE COASTLINE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN A FEW WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
COOL...AND MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE REGION...WITH PERIODS
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. IN THE NORTH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY
TONIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR LATE. VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED TO INPUT
LATEST OBSERVED DATA. WILL CONT THE GLW WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40
AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 45 KT OVER THE OPEN WATERS. STRONG S WINDS
SHIFT TO THE W NW AS A COLD FNT MOVES W TO E ACROSS THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. GALES CONT INTO WEDNESDAY THEN WINDS AND SEAS DROP OFF. 

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$





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