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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KGYX 170726
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
326 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM MONTREAL TO NOVA SCOTIA TODAY AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL SET OFF SOME SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE SOME ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE...AND SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND THE COAST. WELL BELOW NORMAL AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE LOOKS TO PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THINKING FOR TODAY...AS THE
WEAK SFC LOW TRACKS FROM AROUND MONTREAL TO NOVA SCOTIA BEFORE IT
STARTS TO REALLY INTENSIFY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
SPARE THE CWA ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...AND MOST OF THE
CWA...OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR ERN ZONES...WILL SEE LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMS AS THE FRONT MOVES THRU. IN FACT...THE COASTAL PLAIN
WILL GENERALLY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ANY SHSN EARLY TO CHANGE TO SHRA
BY MID MORNING BEFORE ENDING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MTNS IN
GENERAL COULD SEE UP TO 2' OF SNOW...EXCEPT FOR FRANKLIN AND
SOMERSET...MAINLY FROM RANGELY AND JACKMAN NORTHWARD WHERE 1 TO 3"
ARE EXPECTED...AS A STEADIER SNOW COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 40S IN THE SRN HALF OF NH AND SW ME
OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME FANFARE AS WINDS WILL QUICKLY PICK UP FROM THE NW GUSTING TO
30-35 MPH AT TIMES.  

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE SFC LOW WILL INTENSIFY TO OUR EAST...AND THIS WILL KEEP THE
GUSTY WINDS GOING THRU THE THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL SUBSIDE
A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT...ONLY TO PICK UP AGAIN ON WED. ANY SNOW
SHOULD WIND DOWN WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN THE NE ZONES AS
WELL...AND TEMPS WILL PLUNGE OVERNIGHT INTO THE SINGLE DIGIT S AND
TEENS...WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO AROUND ZERO ON THE COAST AND
-10 TO -15 IN THE N.

WED WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...AND IT WILL BE BLUSTERY AND COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER TEENS N...AND MID TO UPPER 20S ON THE COAST. UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MTNS...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMS IN THE
USUAL SPOTS.
 

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE CONTINUE WITH A WESTERN RIDGE AND
EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN...ALBEIT WEAKER WITH LESS AMPLITUDE THEN
OVER THE PAST MONTH. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES SO CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE...AND A FRESH SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR...BUILDING EAST
INTO THE AREA WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. A COASTAL LOW WILL PASS BY OFFSHORE
ON SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA WITH A REINFORCING
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR TO FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECTING A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR AT ALL TERMINALS
STARTING EARLY THIS MORNING THRU MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS WE
GET INTO SOME SHRA/SHSN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOME CONCERN THAT
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA AROUND DAYBREAK AT
KMHT/KCON AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...BUT IF IT DOES OCCUR SHOULD NOT
LAST VERY LONG AND WILL BE VERY LIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR RETURNS AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NW INDS
PICKING UP BETWEEN AND 18Z AND 21Z. GUSTO TO AROUND 30 KT POSSIBLE
LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THEY WILL SLACKEN OFF A BIT AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL BEGIN UP AGAIN DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WED.

LONG TERM...

SAT...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... AFTER THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND WITH NW
GALES BEHIND IT. COULD SEE A PERIOD STRONG GALES THIS EVE. VERY
COLD AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THIS FRONT...AND THIS HAS PROMPTED A
FREEZING ADVISORY FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
GALES WILL CONTINUE THU THE DAY WED.

LONG TERM...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR 
     ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY 
     NIGHT FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS



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