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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KGYX 221122
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
622 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
INTRODUCE SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION BEGINNING TODAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY LATER TODAY ALONG WITH
A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE TODAY INTO SUNDAY. 
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS WILL
TRACK OFFSHORE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK HOLIDAY PERIOD...AND
COULD BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

615 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS. 

AT 07Z...A 1035 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE DELMARVA
REGION. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOW CLOUDS EVIDENT ON GOES IMAGERY ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS...SKIES
WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH THE RETURN FLOW INTRODUCING SOMEWHAT MILDER
AIR INTO THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...IN DEVELOPING WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...WITH A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS OR
SLEET ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SPOTTY LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION PERSISTS TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
REGION. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND SPOTTY NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION...NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS
TIME.

ON SUNDAY...WE BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS ALL BUT PERHAPS
NORTHERN SECTIONS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST. HIGHS WILL
ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S...ALTHOUGH A 50 DEGREE READING OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION/SW WINDS APPROACH OVERNIGHT. A FEW
VALLEYS AND FAVORED COLD LOCATIONS MAY REACH THE FREEZING MARK.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR RAIN OVER THE
INTERIOR OR HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AS WARMER AIR IS USHERED IN
AND THE NOW OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
RAIN WILL BE STEADY IN THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE TURNING INTO
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 

NO NOTABLE COLD AIR ARRIVES IMMEDIATELY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND WINDS TURN WSW.
VARIOUS MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS AND LATEST EURO ARE BRINGING
THIS BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE WITHIN THE BENCHMARK NOW ON A VERY
BUSY TRAVEL HOLIDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD BEGIN AS RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY... ALL AREAS WOULD CHANGE TO SNOW EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHICH WOULD SEE A MIX AT TIMES. FOR NOW UPPED POPS
TO 50% ALONG THE COAST AND JUST INLAND DUE TO MODEL
AGREEMENT... BUT DID NOT GO LIKELY AT THIS TIME AS THIS IS STILL
CONSIDERED DAY 6. DID NOT WANT TO HAVE A FLIP FLOPPING FORECAST
FOR THANKSGIVING IF THE MODELS TURN DRY AGAIN.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ARCTIC AIR WILL BE UNINHIBITED FROM REACHING
THE NORTHEAST. 300MB TRAJECTORIES TRACK BACK TO A VERY COLD
SOURCE AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...VFR...XCP SCT MVFR POSSIBLE TONIGHT
IN SPOTTY -FZRA/IP/SN. 

LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN RAIN OR SNOW ON MONDAY. MOUNTAIN
TERMINALS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION LINGERING INTO TUESDAY.
ALL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN AND OR SNOW WEDNESDAY WITH COASTAL
LOCATIONS SEEING LOWERED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE AN OCEAN SYSTEM COMES INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BRING WIND GUSTS TO MARGINAL GALE LATER TODAY INTO EARLY
TONIGHT OUTSIDE THE BAYS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR CASCO AND
PENOBSCOT BAYS.  

LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER
THAT. WAVES WILL BE 6-10 FT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST 
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR 
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES



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