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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KGYX 161909
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
309 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A STRONGER SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND CROSS THE WATERS LATE
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
WILL HOLD OFF THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BEGIN TO CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND
MOISTURE FROM TODAYS RAINS...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHELTERED VALLEYS. THIS WILL PREVENT
ANY FROST WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES HOLDING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN
THE MOUNTAINS WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MORE SUNSHINE WILL BE ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ENTERS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE WILL BE A WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FAR NORTHERN MAINE LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
MAY BRING SOME CLOUDINESS TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MORE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. WE WILL BE
INTRODUCING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS WITH THE
APPROACH AND EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR ONE OF THE COLDEST PERIODS THIS SEPTEMBER IN THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE STRONG
COLD FNT HEADED THRU THE REGION ON THU. AHEAD OF THE FNT SW FLOW
AND SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WILL BUMP HIGHS UP INTO THE 60S FOR
THE COASTAL PLAIN. COLD AIR WILL LIKELY SNEAK INTO THE NRN ZONES
BEFORE SUNRISE...SO HIGHS SHOULD OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS NRN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PCPN. THE COOL NW FLOW OVER THE TERRAIN WILL BE THE
GREATEST SOURCE OF SHOWERS...BUT EVEN THEN ONLY SCHC TO CHC POP.

CAA CONTINUES FIRST HALF OF THU NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRES SETTLES
OVERHEAD. CLEAR AND CALM PRIOR TO SUNRISE WILL SUPPORT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING. H8 TEMPS ALOFT NEAR -2C IN THE N TO 0C IN THE
S WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD 30S DOWN TO MID 20S IN SHELTERED NRN
VALLEYS. FOR MUCH OF THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WILL
BRING AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON. HIGH CENTERED OVERHEAD FRI
WILL INHIBIT MIXING...DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE. AS A RESULT HIGH
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE UPPER 50S. THE RECORD COLD HIGH TEMP
FOR KPWM ON FRI IS 58...SO THIS IS A VERY CHILLY AIR MASS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

WARMTH IS QUICK TO FOLLOW HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PRES SLIDING
OFFSHORE AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO
SEASONABLE...AND POSSIBLY EVEN MILDER THAN NORMAL BY SUN
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE AT RAIN HOWEVER...AS
LOW PRES MOVING THRU CANADA DRAGS A COLD FNT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING WITH CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT.
LIFR CONDITIONS OVER MANY INLAND AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TOMORROW WITH PATCHY FOG
REDEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR PREVAILS THRU SAT AS HIGH PRES REMAINS IN
CONTROL. DIGGING TROF OVER THE WEEKEND WILL EVENTUAL PUSH A WARM
FNT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FNT THRU THE REGION. EXPECT A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH THESE FEATURES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...MODELS APPEAR TO BE OVERFORECASTING SWELL HEIGHTS
FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD. HAVE COLLABORATED WITH ADJACENT OFFICES.
WILL NOT BE ISSUING SCAS FOR SEAS AT THIS TIME. SWELLS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY BUILD LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...SCA WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE THU BEHIND COLD FNT.
DID UNDERCUT MODEL WIND SPEEDS OVER THE WATERS FOR THE LATE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THEY TYPICALLY OVERFORECAST SW
FLOW. HOWEVER...SUSTAINED SLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

JC/LEGRO



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