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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KGYX 010212 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1012 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION O0VERNIGHT 
AND WILL STALL OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATE...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EWD
ACROSS THE SRN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN A LINE FROM JUST E OF
KCON TO KPWM RAIN IS HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH OCNL RATES IN EXCESS OF
3 INCHES/HR. BACK EDGE IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE COAST...THOUGH
HEAVIEST RATES WILL LINGER WITHIN THIS LINE. TO EITHER SIDE OF
THAT LINE...A LIGHTER RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED POP BASED ON RADAR TREND AND LATEST
HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE. SHOULD BE A MOSTLY DRY NIGHT ONCE THIS RNFL
CLEARS THE COAST...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NRN ZONES WHERE LINGERING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF S/WV TROF MAY HOLD
TOGETHER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AS
WELL...AND ALSO WEAKEN. A SHIELD OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO
TRAVERSE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES AS OF 19Z THIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL STABILIZE THE AIRMASS ACROSS THIS AREA.
HOWEVER...ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN SWWD OVER TO SOUTHERNMOST NH
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THEREFORE...THESE AREAS SHOULD RETAIN THE INSTABILITY /1000-1500
J/KG SBCAPE/ THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE QUESTION IS DO
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THIS AREA.

SEVERAL OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST NH
AND SOUTHERNMOST ME BETWEEN 22Z AND 03Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THE CURRENT MESOSCALE SETUP. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGH POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THIS AREA. MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY
AID IN A FEW OF THESE STORMS BECOMING STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS
BEING THE MAIN THREAT. WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY
EARLY EVENING...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM. THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR TRAINING STORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH AND SOUTHERNMOST ME...SO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE AROUND MIDNIGHT LEADING TO A MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEPART IN THE MORNING.
STILL...WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E IN TANDEM WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND A WEAK SFC FRONT IN THE VCNTY...WE
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN...WITH HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

MUGGY AND QUIET MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WILL 
SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER. PRE-FRONTAL 
TROUGH FORECAST TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST DURING PRIME TIME 
HEATING. MODERATE CAPES AND INCREASING SHEAR DURING THE 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE 
ORGANIZED CONVECTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. STRONGER CELLS MAY ALSO PRODUCE
SOME HAIL BUT FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH SO NOT LOOKING
FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE HAIL. WILL SEE A HOT AND MUGGY DAY
WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CONVECTION ENDING 
ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL BRING CLEARING DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPS
OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 60S.

COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE 
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST. SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE 
CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION FINALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE
ON FRIDAY. AFTER A STELLAR LATE SUMMER DAY ON THURSDAY...RETURN
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. MAY SEE ENOUGH INSTABILITY CREEP INTO THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY LATE FRIDAY TO KICK OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A DRY
DAY.

RATHER STRONG LOOKING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...FOG AND SOME LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP AND RESULT
IN LOW CONDITIONS AS WELL. MAINLY VFR EXPECTED ON MONDAY OUTSIDE
OF WDLY SCT SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUE EVE/NIGHT. SOME VALLEY FOG AND COASTAL STRATUS
POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SUB-SCA EXPECTED TUE THROUGH FRI.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



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