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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KGYX 270328
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1028 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL RACE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1015 PM UPDATE: NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. SNOW CONTINUES
WITH SOME SLEET MIXED IN ALONG THE COAST AT TIMES AS FCST. SAT PIX
AND RADAR INDICATE WRAPAROUND BANDING SNOWS DEVELOPING SO SOME
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THIS
WILL MAKE THE FORECAST TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE STORM FAIRLY
CLOSE. WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES A PROBLEM FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AS WINDS HAVE PICKED UP AND BECOME GUSTY. THE HEAVY WET SNOW
ON TREE LIMBS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUSE ADDITIONAL POWER OUTAGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  

ON THE 10 PM WSW ADDED AN ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS
ACTION FOR PEOPLE USING GENERATORS.

720 PM UPDATE: FORCAST AMOUNTS ON TRACK. CENTER OF SFC LO JUST NW
OF 40N/70W BENCHMARK TRACKING NE. BANDS OF HVY SNOWFALL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FA WITH SOME RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR AT TIMES. REPORTS
OF NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SRN ME AND NH DUE TO THE HEAVY
WET SNOW WEIGHING DOWN BRANCHES...MORE OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED AS
ANOTHER BURST OF HEAVY PCPN DVLPS AND MOVES N AS THE SFC/MID LVL
LOW DEEPEN AND WRAPAROUND SNOWS DEVELOP AS IT PASSES OFF TO OUR E.
EXPECTING CONDITONS TO BEGIN TO WIND DOWN OVER SRN AREAS OF NH/ME
LATER TONIGHT. FCST SNOW AMTS LOOK GOOD ATTM WITH NO CHANGES TO
THE TOTALS.

PREV DISC:
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY NEAR CAPE HATTERAS THIS
AFTERNOON. FURTHER CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE SYSTEM
HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS CAPE COD.  

ANY RAIN OR SLEET HAS QUICKLY CHANGED TO SNOW OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. WITHIN ABOUT AN HOURS TIME OF THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...VISIBILITIES QUICKLY DROP TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN
HEAVY SNOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE SNOW ENTERS NORTHERN
AREAS.

EXPECT HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A CLEAR BANDED SIGNATURE IN THE
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ALSO BANDED PRECIPITATION LINING UP ON CURRENT
RADAR ANIMATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IN
FACT...LIGHTNING IS NOTED IN MANY OBERVATIONS NEAR NYC. THIS
CONVECTION WILL ROLL NORTH...AND THUNDERSNOW IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING.

CURRENT THINKING...AND THE GRIDDED PACKAGE IS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES THIS HOUR. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED A FEW
ITEMS...

- MORE WIND IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. WET SNOW AND WIND MAY LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES.

- HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL TOTALS BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED
BANDING BY AN INCH OR SO. SO FAR...PLENTY OF WATER IS IN THE
SNOWPACK 

- ADDED SOME POCKETS OF SLEET FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF 0C AIR ARRIVES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE H7 LOW TONIGHT.

SLEET MAY KEEP ACCUMULATIONS DOWN ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS...LOCALLY NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF A
FOOT...WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE BANDED PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HANGS BACK TO OUR WEST ON THANKSGIVING.
THIS...AND THE PROXIMITY OF AN INVERTED TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO SET UP A CLUSTER OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST SOUTH
OF PORTLAND. MODELS ARE GIVING MIXED SIGNALS AS TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FULL NORLUN TROUGH EVENT AND EXACTLY WHERE THIS WOULD OCCUR
HOWEVER.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. 
LINGERING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN 
NEW ENGLAND WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH EARLY NOON BEFORE DIMINISHING 
LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER A 
MOSTLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS VARIABLE 
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PUSH IN FROM WEST. WILL SEE ANOTHER VERY CHILLY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND LOWER TO MID
TEENS SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND RETURN FLOW WILL 
BEGIN TO BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. BROAD AREA OF
OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BRING VARIABLE CLOUDS TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS OVER-RUNNING CONTINUES 
ALONG WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. AT THIS POINT EXPECT ANY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL SEE A MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.

BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY 
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT ANOTHER
MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY BUT WITH MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BLOW THROUGH 
THE REGION DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING. FRONT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. WHICH SHOULD BE WELL
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY. 
ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO SLACK OFF SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL
REACH HIGH TEMPS DURING THE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING A SHORT STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF LIFR THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS
LIFTING THEREAFTER. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING.

LONG TERM...VFR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. FLAGS ARE UP FOR GALES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS TO PEAK OUT NEAR STORM FORCE FOR A SHORT PERIOD
TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

LONG TERM...SCA'S LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001>010-
     013-014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
 



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