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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KGYX 301354
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
955 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
FURTHER OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OVER THE 
REGION MONDAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE 
WEST ON TUESDAY...BEFORE CROSSING MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TUESDAY 
NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY 
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...IT SHOULD
BE A NICE DAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS UP A BIT...SOME DIURNAL CU MAY CAUSE SKIES
TO GO BKN AT TIMES IN SPOTS.

600 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT MESONET IN 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...A 1026 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOG AND
STRATUS HAD BEGUN TO FORM ACROSS SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS. FOG AND
STRATUS SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF TODAY...WITH SUNSHINE AND THE
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH BOOSTING TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 70S WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A WAA PATTERN WILL SPREAD INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
INTO THE AREA. THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE SOME EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES THAT COULD BRUSH AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH
SCT SHOWERS OR TSTMS TONIGHT. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THEN
THIS MORNING GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
WITH HEATING AND COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. IT'LL BE A HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z MODEL RUN IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING IN REGARDS TO THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL THEN BECOME RELATIVELY
STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.

BY WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH DOWNSLOPING ALONG THE COASTLINE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER BRIEF WARMUP IN OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
.SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH TODAY...EXCEPT SOME FOG AND STRATUS IN
RIVER VALLEYS EARLY TODAY. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN
SCT MTN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. AREAS OF MVFR SUN IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WITH BRIEF IFR PSBL.

.LONG TERM...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH TODAY AND WE SHOULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TONIGHT OUTSIDE THE BAYS...WITH LINGERING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY. 

.LONG TERM...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY 
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE



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