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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KGYX 301342
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
942 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND INTO MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

930 AM...I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE 13Z MESONET FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
7 AM UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING
FORECAST...MAINLY A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUSLY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT WILL COME WITH CONTINUED MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS
WILL MEAN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG SHOULD BE COMMON THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD MAINLY IN THE 50S TODAY. AN EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY
BE THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
SHALLOWER AND BE SUBJECT TO DOWNSLOPING. THEREFORE...HAVE
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 60S THERE. OVERALL...WE EXPECT
TODAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY BUT CLOUDY AND COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DURING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM WESTERN PA TO OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ENHANCED EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN AND WILL AID IN THE
MAINTENANCE OF CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH
THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GET. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST
BULLISH MODEL IN THAT REGARD...WITH A STEADY MEASURABLE RAIN
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA /HEAVIEST SOUTHERN ZONES/ LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER MEMBERS OF THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE ARE MUCH MORE TAME. NEVERTHELESS...INCREASING MOIST
EASTERLY INFLOW IN THE COLUMN SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE COVERED THIS
POSSIBILITY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW PRES IS GRADUALLY KICKED EWD BY HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO
THE AREA THU. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A SLOW CLEARING AS DRIER AIR
IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS IS JUST A TEMPORARY CHANGE
HOWEVER...AS WRN TROF MIGRATES EWD. SFC LOW PRES WILL RUN UP THRU
THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING A COLD FNT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BE A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ON DEEP SLY
FLOW...SO EXPECT A NARROW BUT POTENTIALLY HEAVY LINE OF
SHOWERS/RNFL. MOST OF SAT SHOULD BE INCREASING LOW CLOUD
COVER...WITH PCPN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDDAY ACROSS NH AND
CLOSER TO 00Z FOR WRN ME. HAVE SPLIT THE FIRST HALF OF SAT INTO 6
HOUR POP GRIDS TO SLOW THE TIMING OF PCPN INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TIMING...SO
STAYED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

MEAN TROF AXIS LOOKS TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PLACING NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE ACTIVE SW FLOW PORTION OF
THE TROF EXIT REGION. THIS ORIENTATION WOULD LEAD TO MORE FREQUENT
CHANCES FOR PCPN THAN WE/VE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL OF WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TODAY BUT MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST MOST
LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO COME BACK DOWN TO IFR TONIGHT AND
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THU AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A SMALL WINDOW OF VFR SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN LATE FRI AS DEEP...MOIST SLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A COLD FNT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SAT...WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS IS
EXPECTED TO END MIDDAY TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW HOURS SOONER AS THE
STIFF NORTHEASTERLY FETCH SUBSIDES. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF THE
REEMERGENCE OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS LATE WED AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN.

LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF SLY FLOW LOOKS TO BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5
FT LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE A COLD FNT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEHIND
THE FNT GUSTY WLY WINDS MAY KEEP SEAS NEAR 5 FT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
ES



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