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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KGYX 042312
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
712 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CYCLCONIC FLOW WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK WITH
MAYBE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. A COASTAL
LOW MAY MOVE UP THE COAST LATE FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
710 PM UPDATE: HAVE DROPPED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NH AND ALL BUT EXTREME SOUTHWEST MAINE. MOST
OF THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THOSE AREAS. STILL SOME
ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS SO WILL KEEP THE WATCH IN PLACE UNTIL
EXPIRATION AT 8 PM. 

635 PM UPDATE: THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED BUT
STILL WATCHING A FEW IN SOUTHWEST NH AND THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF
ME. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED..,PREFER TO HANG ONTO THE
WATCH FOR ONE MORE HOUR TO EXPIRATION. POPS FOR THE EARLY EVENING
LOOK GOOD.  NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NH AND
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MAINE UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
VERY FAVORABLE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOR SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THEIR TRENDS OF BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS
AND INTENSIFYING TO SEVERE LEVELS.

AFTER EARLY THIS EVENING THE CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN
END AS A COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT. WILL STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
BOTH POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY...SO THE
COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
MAY ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY EVENING CLEARING WILL ONCE AGAIN TAKE PLACE.
MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS. LATE FRIDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND THERE IS A MAJOR DISCREPENCY OVER WHETHER A COASTAL LOW
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING SOAKING RAINS TO NH AND SOUTHERN ME. THE EURO MODEL SHOWS
THIS SCENERIO WHILE OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OUT TO SEA.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE
WEEKEND...WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND MODEL WHICH BASICALLY
HEDGES WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. LOOKS LIKE THE HEAT AND HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL BE STAYING AWAY THROUGHOUT THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/ ... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF
THE NIGHT EXCEPT MAYBE MVFR IN ANY REMAINING CONVECTION FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR CONDITIONS
LATER TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR WED MORNING THEN BECOMING MVFR IN
DEVELOPING SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING -SHRA/TSRA.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME IFR OVER THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON TRACK OF A POSSIBLE
COASTAL LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU WED
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE TRACK OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL
LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE SCA OR EVEN
GALE FORCE WINDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARINE
NEAR TERM...MARINE
SHORT TERM...MARINE
LONG TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...MARINE
MARINE...MARINE



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