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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KGYX 190735
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
335 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY TODAY WITH A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL
USHER IN BREEZY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO
AFFECT THE REGION MIDWEEK WITH RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SOME RADAR ECHOES SHOWING UP IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT AND MOVING
ACROSS NRN NH ATTM. THE ONLY SIGH OF THIS REACHING THE GROUND WAS
A 10SM -SHRA AT KMPV. CANNOT RULE OUT A FLURRY OR SPKL...OR EVEN A
BIT OF PL...IN THE MTNS THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. PROBABLY THE BETTER CHC OF OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALON THE
INTL AND UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE MTNS BETWEEN 10-15Z...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THIS THE THREAT OF ANY PRECIP
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR CLOUDS ELSEWHERE
TO CLEAR OUT DURING THE MORNING AS WELL.  

WILL SEE THE WIND START TO PICK UP AFTER SUNRISE...BUT WILL SURGE
EVEN STRONGER DURING THIS AFTERNOON...AS THEN 500MB TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS EAST...AND LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. IT WILL
BE MORE BREEZY THAN WINDY WITH SUSTAINED NW WINDS OF 15 TO 30
MPH...AND GUSTS TO 30 OR SO. THIS WILL LKLY LEAD TO
METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NH AND SW ME...SEE
THE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BLO. THE DOWNSLOPE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO TOP
OUT IN THE 50S ON THE COASTAL...WITH A FEW WARMER SPOTS HITTING
60. IN THE MTNS WILL LKLY SEE TEMPS START TO DROP OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS CAA KICKS IN....AND MIDDAY HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE MID-UPPR 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNSET...AND BY LATE
EVENING THE SHELTERED SPOTS WILL BEGIN TO DECOUPLE....AS SFC HIGH
MOVES OVER THE CWA EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES WITH MINS INTHE 20S TO
LOW 30S.

THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR S ON SUNDAY...AND SKIES LOOK TO REMAIN
GENERALLY SUNNY. LOOK FOR SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP...WHICH WILL LIMIT
HIGHS ON THE COAST TO UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S...BUT THEY WILL REACH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S INLAND.  

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES SLIDES EWD ON MON...ALLOWING SOME SLY RETURN FLOW TO
DEVELOP. CLOSED LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS SHOULD PRECLUDE DEEP...MOIST
FLOW TO RETURN NWD HOWEVER...ALLOWING MON TO BE A SEASONABLE DAY
WITH SOME SUN. DIGGING TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL EVENTUALLY
DISLODGE LOW PRES E...AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO SURGE BACK TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND. TUE SHOULD STEADILY CLOUD OVER...WITH COOL ONSHORE FLOW.
SINCE LAST EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS TROF...AS OPPOSED TO EARLIER SOLUTIONS OF A COMBINED
PINWHEELING GYRE. ATTM IT APPEARS A PERIOD OF RNFL WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED. PWAT VALUES WILL BE SEASONABLY
HIGH SO CANNOT RULE OUT EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHRA. UPPER TROF CROSSES
THE AREA LATE WED...BRINGING AN END TO PCPN. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
SEASONABLY COOL AND WINDY IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MANLY VFR THROUGH SUN...COULD SEE A FEW SHRASN
BRIEFLY BRING MVFR CONDS TO KHIE THIS MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS
DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
CLOSE TO 30 KT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED MON...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN RAIN TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR HAZ SEAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS SWELL IS
JUST STARTING TO SUBSIDE. WINDS SHIFT TO NW BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THIS MORNING...AND COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT LATE TODAY AND
THIS EVE.  WIND SUBSIDE AND SHIFT TO NE TONIGHT INTO SUN. 

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THRU THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. GUSTY NW FLOW WILL BRING WINDS
AND SEAS LIKELY ABOVE SCA CRITERIA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BORDERLINE METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CONDOS ARE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON IN SEN NH AND SW ME. BASED ON CONSULTATION WITH ME/NH
FOREST OFFICIALS...FUELS NOT AT CRITICAL LEVELS...BUT WILL CONTACT
THEM AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING FOR ADDLE INFO.  

&&


.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS 
     MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO









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