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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KGYX 291340
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
940 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE AND
HOLD FIRM UNTIL A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION LATE
WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

925 AM...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN TIP OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE AT 13Z AND CONTINUED TO PRESS
SOUTHWESTWARD. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD POPS...SKY
GRIDS...AND TEMPERATURES...FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE
MESONET AS WELL AS SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. 

PREV DISC...
630 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST.
ADJUSTED TEMPS AND SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
NECK OF THE WOODS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

AS OF 06Z...WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NORTH. AT THIS TIME THE FRONT ISN/T
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY LOW CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION...JUST THE WIND
SHIFT. THE MAIN PUSH OF MUCH COOLER AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
HEAT UP MODESTLY...WITH HIGHS REACHING 70 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS
EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH WHERE COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN EARLIER. ACROSS
SOUTHERNMOST ZONES...ESPECIALLY SWRN NH...TEMPERATURES MAY WORK
THEIR WAY UP TO AROUND 80 DEGREES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. 

A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FROM
NE TO SW AS THE REAL PUSH OF COOLER AND MORE DENSE AIR OCCURS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S MIDDAY WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY
50S BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE. THE FRONT IS QUITE SHALLOW
SO DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL NOT BE PRESENT.
THEREFORE...WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...DRIZZLE AND FOG COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE BY EARLY
EVENING. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A BURST OF GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF COOL AIR.
A FEW GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A BRIEF TIME
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG WILL BE THE MAIN THEME TONIGHT WITH
CONTINUING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. LOWS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 40S
AND 50S.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR TUESDAY AS MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
TO BRING HIGH RH VALUES IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT OR SO.
THEREFORE...NOT MUCH IF ANY SUN IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 50S. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE SOUTHERNMOST ZONES AS WELL AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY
WHERE SOME PEEKS OF SUN MAY BOOST TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS THE MID
60S FOR A TIME. WHILE THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY...A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. MORNING FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS LIKELY TO BE PRESENT AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED A CLOSED LOW PRES NEARLY CUT OFF FROM THE
FLOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WED. FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL BE WEAK AND FAIRLY DISORGANIZED...HOWEVER THE COLD POCKET
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR CLOUD COVER AND A
THREAT OF A SHOWER. EVENTUALLY AT LEAST BRIEF SFC RIDGING WILL
CONTROL THE AREA THU INTO FRI. 

NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF NWRN CANADA LATE
IN THE WEEK. S/WV TROF WILL HELP TO CARVE OUT A LARGER...MERIDIONAL
ERN TROF WITH DEEP SLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. ATTM MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS TIME RANGE. A NARROW AREA OF
FORCING WILL CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SUN...WITH
SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. SEE NO REASON AT THIS POINT TO
DIVERGE FROM THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS POP.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR IN PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. THEREAFTER...SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/DRIZZLE/STRATUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY WHERE IFR/LIFR LIKELY.

LONG TERM...UPPER LOW PRES MEANDERING NEARBY COULD BRING LINGERING
MVFR CIGS TO COASTAL TERMINALS WED. EVENTUALLY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. AN APPROACHING COLD FNT SAT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MARKEDLY
WITH PASSAGE OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MIDDAY. GUSTS UP TO 30 KT WILL
BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING UP
TO AROUND 8 FT. CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. DEVELOPING LONG DURATION SLY
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS TO NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FT BY SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

ES



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