000
FXUS61 KGYX 200647
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
247 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
PRECEDED BY AN AREA OF SHOWERS. THE FRONT WILL RETURN SOUTHWARD
AS A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 06Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM QUEBEC SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WAS SITUATED ALONG AND TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PER LATEST
NWS 88D DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC. THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT
THIS MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PRESS NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WE'LL BRIEFLY SEE THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS BACK SOUTH LATE TODAY.
DAYTIME HEATING AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRIGGER A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. A STRONG
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TODAY ACROSS THE AREA
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 80F SOUTHERN INTERIOR TO THE 60S OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE FRONT STALLS BRIEFLY TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE FRONT BEGINS
TO RETURN NORTH WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SLOWLY NORTH ON
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 50S AND
60S...WITH COOLEST READINGS VICINITY OF COAST IN ONSHORE FLOW. 

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BOUNDARY REMAINS PARKED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK CREATING A 
FOCUS FOR RAINY AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH 
WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT ONLY TO SHIFT SOUTH THURSDAY AS A COLD 
FRONT WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO 
MEAN AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AFFECT THE 
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF 
RAINFALL...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EUROPEAN MODEL. 
REGARDLESS THERE IS A MODERATELY HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN AREAWIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND GIVING NEW ENGLAND A 
RESPITE FROM PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN 
PLACE ENSURING CLOUDY SKIES AND POSSIBLY RAIN FOR THE MOUNTAINS. 

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK WARMER THAN THE REST OF THE 
WEEK...HOWEVER AREAS IMPACTED WITH ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE COOLER THAN 
AREAS TO THE WEST. 

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MVFR TO IFR CONDS WILL SPREAD FROM
S-N TONIGHT IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUES
MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING BY AFTERNOON TO VFR CONDS AS THE WARM
FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST. SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER TONIGHT SO PATCHY
FOG EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP POSSIBLY LOWERING CONDS TO IFR. MVFR
TUESDAY IN SHOWERS WITH LCL IFR PSBL IN DRIZZLE AND FOG.


LONG TERM...SCATTERED PERIODS OF MVFR LIKELY ALL WEEK IN SHOWERS
AND FOG. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY BE LOWER AT TIMES. SCATTERED
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.


&&

.MARINE...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW
AHEAD OF WARM FRONT. OTHERWISE QUIET ON THE WATERS LATE TODAY INTO
TUESDAY. 

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES NEAR THE WATERS. FOG AND
DRIZZLE WILL MAKE VISIBILITIES DROP AND BOATING DIFFICULT...
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH DAMP WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND GREEN UP...FIRE WEATHER DANGER SHOULD BE
LOW THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

ES/HANES