000
FGUS71 KILN 201901
ESFILN
INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-211915-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
301 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2009

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK NUMBER 6...

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING APRIL 3 2009 IS
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS IS A BIWEEKLY FLOOD OUTLOOK ISSUED BY LOCAL NWS OFFICES IN
WINTER AND EARLY SPRING TO SUMMARIZE BASIN CONDITIONS AND TO ASSESS
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON CURRENT AND
FORECAST HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS.

THE FACTORS CONSIDERED WHEN DETERMINING FLOOD POTENTIAL INCLUDE
CURRENT STREAMFLOW AND RESERVOIR LEVELS COMPARED TO NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD...WATER EQUIVALENT IN ANY SNOW PACK...SOIL MOISTURE AND
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION.

...SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...
NO SNOW PACK EXISTED OVER THE AREA.

...STREAMFLOW...
TRIBUTARY STREAMFLOW ACROSS THE REGION IS BELOW NORMAL FOR MARCH.
THIS MEANS THAT STREAMFLOW IS ONLY 24 PERCENT OF NORMAL OR LOWER
BASED ON HISTORICAL DATA FROM THE US GEOLOGICAL SURVEY.  THROUGH THE
REGION...THOUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOME OF EASTERN INDIANA
STREAMFLOW IS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

...ICE...
NO ICE WAS APPARENT ON AREA RIVERS.

...SOIL MOISTURE...
SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...DUE TO THE
BELOW NORMAL 30 TO 60 DAY PRECIPITATION VALUES.

...RESERVOIR CAPACITY...
MOST FLOOD CONTROL RESERVOIRS ARE NEAR WINTER POOL FLOOD CONTROL
ELEVATIONS...MAXIMIZING THEIR ABILITY TO HELP MITIGATE FLOOD
POTENTIAL.

...WEATHER TRENDS AND PRECIPITATION...
RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR LEADING TO FLOODING. HEAVY OR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAN CAUSE FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR EVEN
WHERE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS BELOW NORMAL.

AT TIME OF ISSUANCE...THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE AREA WILL
EXPERIENCE AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND
BRING LIGHT RAIN. ONLY SCATTERED RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FOR WEEK TWO OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD...BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ALONG
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA.

REAL TIME RIVER INFORMATION AND FORECASTS FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
ALONG RIVERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO...NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND
SOUTHEAST INDIANA CAN BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND CLICKING THE
RIVERS AND LAKES LINK ON THE LEFT SIDE MENU.


IF FLOOD POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED TOWARD THE END OF THE
OUTLOOK PERIOD...THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED
APRIL 3 2009.

$$