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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 241857
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
157 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY NIGHT...TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY...TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE ON
SATURDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DENSE FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MOST OF LONG ISLAND AS A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE OCEAN AND LONG ISLAND.
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR QUEENS...NASSAU...AND SUFFOLK
COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EST. THERE IS CLEARING TO THE WEST AND THE
FOG MAY BURN OFF A LITTLE EARLIER...ALTHOUGH THERE IS ONLY ABOUT 3
HOURS OF SUN FOR TODAY.

INLAND WHERE THE CLEARING HAS OCCURRED TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE...SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH SE CANADA TONIGHT WITH ITS COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT USHERING THE WARM AND MORE HUMID
AIRMASS OFFSHORE. WINDS/GUSTS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT REMAIN UP
ENOUGH WITH CAA LAGGING FOR LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

A FEW SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO WARRANT MORE THAN SCHC POPS.

CAA ENSUES ON TUE...ALBEIT WEAK. STRONGER CAA HOLDS OFF TIL TUE
NIGHT...THEREFORE HIGHS ON TUE WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS...BETWEEN 50 AND 55. GUSTY WINDS RETURN AFT SUNRISE
WITH JUST A CIRRUS DECK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z 
RUNS ON THE STORM SYSTEM THAT LIKELY WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM LATE 
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED ITS 
STORM TRACK TO THE EAST - BUT STILL REMAINS A WESTERN OUTLIER 
COMPARED TO ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE A 
WEAKER/EASTERN OUTLIER. AS A RESULT BASED FORECAST TUESDAY 
NIGHT-THURSDAY ON A BLEND OF THE GFS/GEFS/SREF/CMC.

LOOKING ALOFT...MODELS ARE IN SOLID AGREEMENT THAT A POSITIVELY 
TILTED FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK 
INTO EASTERN TEXAS TUESDAY EVENING. THEY STILL DIFFER ON THEIR 
HANDLING OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING SE FROM THE UPPER 
PLAINS/S CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE 
TROUGH. IT IS THE INTERACTION OF THIS FEATURE WITH THE 
TROUGH...WHICH ULTIMATELY WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE EXACT 
AMPLITUDE/PLACEMENT OF A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST TUESDAY...THAT 
WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE 
COASTAL LOW.

FOR NOW...THE CONSENSUS IS GROWING FOR THE LOW TO TRACK NEAR OR JUST 
TO THE EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY NIGHT...REACHING NEAR 
NOVA SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

AHEAD OF THE LOW...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR 
SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER FAR S PORTIONS OF THE CWA 
AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SPREAD NORTHWEST INTO WEDNESDAY 
MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION COULD INITIALLY START AS A BRIEF BURST OF 
SNOW OVER COASTAL AREAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL 
RAIN. FARTHER INLAND...PRECIPITATION WILL START AS A RAIN/SNOW 
MIX...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL 
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND THE RAIN WILL 
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AT COASTAL AREAS...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE SOUTH 
FORK OF LONG ISLAND. SNOW THEN TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE LATE 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SE CT 
AND SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY COULD LINGER UNTIL 
AROUND MIDDAY.

BASED ON THE ABOVE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 6-10 INCHES OF SNOW 
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AND 4-8 
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS INTERIOR S CT. IN COLLABORATION WITH 
SURROUNDING WFOS...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS 
FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER 
HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ AND FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY UNTIL 15Z THURSDAY 
FOR INTERIOR S CT. 

THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP DROP OFF BETWEEN AREAS RECEIVING WARNING 
LEVEL SNOWS AND THOSE RECEIVING MAYBE A SLUSHY INCH OR SO DEPENDING 
ON EXACTLY WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP ON WEDNESDAY AND ON HOW 
QUICKLY IT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE 
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM TRACK...THERE IS STILL A LOW 
CHANCE FOR REACHING WARNING LEVEL SNOWS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NE 
NJ/NYC/COASTAL S CT AND ALL BUT E SUFFOLK COUNTY ON LONG ISLAND.  
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE MID-UPPER TROUGH FINISHES LIFTING OUT THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WNW 
FLOW SETTING UP FRIDAY THEN ZONAL FLOW FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO 
SUNDAY. A WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH OVER THE 
WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-SHSN...MAINLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...WITH A COLD FRONT
WELL TO THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MOVE
WESTWARD...PASSING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
 
VFR CONDITIONS NOW BEING OBSERVED WEST OF NYC. MVFR OR LESS
CONTINUES AT TERMINALS ACROSS CONNECTICUT...NYC AND LONG ISLAND.
FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE ALSO MOVED IN ACROSS LONG
ISLAND...INCLUDING KJFK. FOG HAS REDUCED VSBYS TO LESS THAN A HALF
MILE AND CIGS TO LESS THAN 600 FT. UNSURE JUST HOW LONG THESE
CONDITIONS WILL LAST. THINKING IS THAT THEY WILL CONTINUE TIL 22Z-
00Z...HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE THOSE CONDITIONS IMPROVE EARLIER
THAN FORECAST. ALSO...SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS THE
FOG/STRATUS CON TINING THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT. SO IF
THERE IS ANY IMPROVEMENT...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME OF
THESE CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER SUNSET. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE
WEST. 

S WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 20 KT WITH 30 KT GUSTS. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE ALONG THE COAST. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME LOCATIONS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KT.

WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... 

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES WITH LOW FOG/STRATUS. CHANCE THAT
FOG/STRATUS IMPROVES SOONER THAN FORECAST. IF SO...WINDS COULD ALSO
GUST HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD GUST HIGHER THAN FORECAST. 

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD GUST HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD GUST HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES AND WINDS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS:  AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES WITH LOW FOG/STRATUS. CHANCE THAT
FOG/STRATUS IMPROVES SOONER THAN FORECAST. IF SO...WINDS COULD ALSO
GUST HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

     HIGH IMPACT EVENT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TUESDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. WSW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FCST. ACCUMULATING
SNOW PROBABLE FOR THE INTERIOR...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD
OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST DURING WED NIGHT BASED ON TRACK OF LOW.
N WINDS 10-15 KT AM...INCR 15-20 KT EVENING WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT.
.THURSDAY...BECOMING VFR. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY.
WNW 10 KT WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT.
.FRIDAY...VFR. NW 10-15 KT GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND GUSTS HAVE BEEN BELOW GALE AND WILL REMAIN BELOW INTO
TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN THROUGH
TUESDAY AND ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS UNTIL 06Z TUESDAY. HAVE
CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING FOR ALLL THE WATERS AND ISSUED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. 

CLEARING HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUND AND NEW YORK HARBOR
AND VISIBLITIES WERE NOW UNRESTRICTED THERE. DENSE FOG AND AN
ADVISORY REMAINS ON THE REMAINDE OF THE WATERS ALTHOUGH CLEARING
WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE FARTHER EAST...AND THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO
BE CANCELLED EARLY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE.

A COASTAL LOW BRINGS A CHANCE OF GALE CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL 
OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THE EASTERN SOUND AND BAYS OF LONG ISLAND 
AS WELL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE 
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH A LOW CHANCE 
OF GALES. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE GALE THREAT ON ALL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE HWO.

CONDITIONS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE NON-OCEAN 
ZONES THURSDAY AND REMAIN SO THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS...AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS 
PERSIST ON ALL COASTAL OCEAN ZONES THURSDAY...THEN SMALL CRAFT LEVEL 
SEAS SHOULD PERSIST EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 1 TO 1 3/4 INCHES OF QPF TO
FALL FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS AREA CURRENTLY
EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CT/LONG ISLAND AND THE LOWEST OVER FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE.

OVER THE INTERIOR MOST OF THIS WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SO 
LITTLE IF ANY IMMEDIATE HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED THERE. FARTHER 
TO THE S/E...BASICALLY ALONG AND E OF I-95...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD 
OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INTO WEDNESDAY 
EVENING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO ALL SNOW. THIS COULD 
CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979..........72
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..........66
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..........70
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..........71
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.........68
ISLIP...............63/2001..........67

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY 
     MORNING FOR CTZ005>008.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY 
     MORNING FOR NYZ067>070.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ078>081-
     176>179.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY 
     MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-103-105.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-
     345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...MET
CLIMATE...








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