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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 281450
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
950 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN MOVES
OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND USHERS IN VERY COLD AIR STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY...THEN PASSES NEAR THE
REGION ON MONDAY. MORE COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE NNE WITH NORTHERN STREAM
RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. STILL EXPERIENCING CYCLONIC
CURVATURE OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA...SO WILL SEE MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUN THERE...BUT FARTHER W SHOULD SEE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS.

WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH WILL RESULT IN SOME BLOWING SNOW.

DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...THE HIGH ALBEDO FROM THE FRESH SNOW KEEPS
MAX TEMPS CONFINED TO THE MID 20S. USED 1-2 DEGREES BELOW THE
LOWEST OF THE COMBINED MOS FOR HIGHS. WIND CHILLS WILL BE 10 TO 15
ABOVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN TONIGHT. SKC AND LIGHT 
WIND. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO INLAND. MID TEENS 
FOR THE CITY AND AROUND 10 ON LONG ISLAND. AGAIN...THE LOWER OF THE 
MOS WAS USED AND LOWERED 1-2 DEGREES FROM THERE. FEEL THESE MIGHT 
STILL BE TOO WARM...BUT USUALLY LOOSE WHEN TRYING TO OUT FORECAST
MOS TOO MUCH.

WARM AIR ADVECTION SETS UP ON THURSDAY WITH CLOUD COVER THICKENING
AND LOWERING FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT TO BE OVERCAST BY MID
AFTERNOON EVEN OUT EAST. TEMPS ARE NOT AS COLD - AROUND 30...LOWER
30S NY METRO AND LONG ISLAND.

KEEP POPS JUST WEST OF ORANGE COUNTY THROUGH 6 PM PER CONSENSUS OF 
LATEST NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS INCLUDING SREF.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THIS PACKAGE. TWO SYSTEMS - THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THEN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAYS CLIPPER SYSTEM 
AS NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT.
THE UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. EXPECTING TEMPS
ALONG THE COAST WILL BE MARGINAL. HAVE KEPT THIS MOSTLY SNOW -
THOUGH A WET SNOW FOR THE COAST. PROBABILISTIC SNOW GRAPHICS AND
DATA ARE AVAILABLE AT: WEATHER.GOV/OKX/WINTER

CLIPPER PULLS AN ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MASSIVE DROP 
IN TEMPS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FRIDAY. HAVE SOME 
CONCERN FOR A FLASH FREEZING OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE DURING THE EVENING 
COMMUTE. FORECAST MID TEENS IN THE CITY BY 7 PM. 

WINDS HOWL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AMBIENT TEMPS TO NEAR ZERO INLAND WITH 
MID SINGLE DIGITS AT THE COAST. LOOKS LIKELY FOR WIND CHILL 
ADVISORIES !!

JUMPING TO NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WILL 
TRACK OUT OF TEXAS. NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS HAS BEEN
RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM
THOUGH REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. HAVE RAISED POPS ALONG WITH ALL
SURROUND NWS OFFICES TO LIKELY. HAVE NOT ADJUSTED TEMPS AND
CONTINUE WITH THE COLD SOLUTION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS
MEAN (NOT THE OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH IS WARM) AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF. CMC IS THE WARMEST - ALL RAIN AND A
LOT OF IT (DO NOT NEED THAT EITHER).

WILL ADD THIS TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. 

VFR AS LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE FARTHER AWAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NW AND RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC...
AT SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30
KT ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT DIMINISHING NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING RIGHT OF
310 MAGNETIC TODAY. 

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING RIGHT OF
310 MAGNETIC TODAY. 

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING RIGHT OF
310 MAGNETIC TODAY. 

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING RIGHT OF
310 MAGNETIC TODAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING RIGHT OF
310 MAGNETIC TODAY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING RIGHT OF
310 MAGNETIC TODAY. 

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU...VFR. 
.THU NIGHT-FRI MORNING...IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SNOW AS
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. UP TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION
ON RUNWAYS POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY UP TO 2 INCHES KSWF/KHPN.
.FRI AFTERNOON-NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G25-35KT...INCREASING
AT NIGHT AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES OFFSHORE. 
.SAT...VFR.
.SUN...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY...AS
ANOTHER LOW IMPACTS THE AREA. LOW TRACK AND THEREFORE DETAILS ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND WINDS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. 

SCA GUSTS CONTINUE TODAY FOR ALL WATERS. SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH AT LEAST SCA
LEVEL SEAS POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION 
MAKES GALE CONDITIONS LIKELY ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON 
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. FREEZING SPRAY ADDED TO FORECAST WITH TEMPS
WELL BELOW SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  

SUB SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND CONTINUE ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
EXPECTED.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A HALF AN INCH OR SO OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME OR MOST OF THIS IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE FORM OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION...SO
LITTLE OR NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A WARM
SOLUTION FOR THIS SYSTEM IS A POSSIBLE AND MOST PRECIPITATION 
COULD BE OF LIQUID WITH UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD PRODUCE
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS JUST RECEIVING A FOOT
OR MORE OF SNOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...TONGUE
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/TONGUE/PW
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE/PW










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