000
FXUS61 KOKX 240207
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
907 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MOVES EAST...ALLOWING A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE US EAST COAST. THIS LOW
PASSES EAST OF CAPE COD TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A POTENTIALLY STRONG COASTAL LOW MAY IMPACT THE
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THERE IS VERY LITTLE 
INSTABILITY IN THE LOW LEVELS WHERE MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT HOWEVER. 
GIVEN THESE WEAK AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW DYNAMICS...EXPECT THE MAIN 
P-TYPE TO BE DRIZZLE FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES 
RAIN MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TONIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD END UP WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH SOLID
CLOUD COVER AND NE WINDS INHIBITING ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PREFERRED LOW TRACK TAKES THE WEAK SYSTEM EAST OF CAPE COD BY
LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. THE FLOW IN GENERAL WEAKENS A BIT...BUT
DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE FROM NORTHEASTERLY. THERE IS ALSO NO
APPRECIABLE COLD FRONT TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...SKIES WILL PROBABLY REMAIN CLOUDY INTO AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW FULLY MIXED VALUES...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S. 

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY...WITH WHAT IS LIKELY
TO BE THE BEST WEATHER DAY OF THE WEEK. HIGHS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
60...ESPECIALLY IF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL. 

POTENT COLORADO LOW SETS THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE END OF THE WEEK.
THE PARENT LOW LOOKS TO TAKE A ST. LAWRENCE/GREAT LAKES TRACK INTO
EASTERN CANADA. A SECONDARY COLD LOW ALOFT DIVES IN BEHIND THE
INITIAL TROUGH AND ALLOWS IT BECAME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SPAWN A
COASTAL LOW LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE EC DEVELOPS THE SURFACE
LOW JUST EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH
FARTHER WEST WITH A DOUBLE BARRELED SFC LOW OVER NYC/LI. BOTTOM
LINE IS LOTS OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BECOME 
NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
THANKSGIVING NIGHT. SPOTTY PRECIP OVER THE AREA INITIALLY IN THE
EVENING SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE NIGHT AS THE
CLOSED LOW APPROACHES AND INDUCES SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT
NEARBY...AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH NW OF
INCIPIENT LOW PRESSURE E OF THE VA CAPES. THE SECONDARY LOW WILL
RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE FROM THE LOCAL AREA INTO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND ON FRI...WITH A BRISK W FLOW TAKING HOLD IN THE AFTERNOON
AFTER SOME MORNING RAINFALL...AND LASTING INTO SAT. POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WINDS MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA EXISTS ON SAT IF
INGREDIENTS OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND LARGE PRESSURE RISES TO THE REAR OF THE LOW MESH. CYCLONIC
FLOW AND ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
WILL PRESENT LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AS WELL LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING NORTH/WEST
OF NYC.

BRISK W FLOW SHOULD LESSEN ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE 
SLIDES ACROSS...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH AN 
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WELL TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. A 
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. RAIN 
ENDS BY AROUND 12Z TUESDAY WITH CIGS OF MOSTLY BKN-OVC CLOUDS 
INCREASING THROUGH AFTERNOON FROM LOW END MVFR TO VFR.

UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAST THE CEILINGS INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND WHETHER 
OR NOT MVFR CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CEILINGS 
REMAINING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. 

NORTHEAST WINDS DECREASING TO 5-10 KT RANGE THROUGHOUT TUESDAY. 

TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)

KEWR...CIGS MAY TAKE AN EXTRA HOUR TO LIFT OUT OF IFR RANGE 
TUESDAY MORNING. UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AFTER 14Z FOR MVFR 
CONDS.

KJFK...CIGS MAY TAKE AN EXTRA HOUR TO LIFT OUT OF IFR RANGE 
TUESDAY MORNING. UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z FOR MVFR 
CONDS.

KLGA...CIGS MAY TAKE AN EXTRA HOUR TO LIFT OUT OF IFR RANGE 
TUESDAY MORNING. UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z FOR MVFR 
CONDS.

KTEB...CIGS MAY TAKE AN EXTRA HOUR TO LIFT OUT OF IFR RANGE 
TUESDAY MORNING. UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AFTER 14Z FOR MVFR 
CONDS.

KHPN...CIGS MAY TAKE AN EXTRA HOUR TO LIFT OUT OF IFR RANGE 
TUESDAY MORNING. UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z FOR MVFR 
CONDS.

KSWF...CIGS MAY TAKE AN EXTRA HOUR TO LIFT OUT OF IFR RANGE 
TUESDAY MORNING. UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR MVFR CONDS 
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

KISP...CIGS MAY TAKE AN EXTRA HOUR TO LIFT OUT OF IFR RANGE 
TUESDAY MORNING. UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR MVFR CONDS 
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

KBDR...CIGS MAY TAKE AN EXTRA HOUR TO LIFT OUT OF IFR RANGE. 
TUESDAY MORNING. UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR MVFR CONDS 
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

KGON...CIGS MAY TAKE AN EXTRA HOUR TO LIFT OUT OF IFR RANGE 
TUESDAY MORNING. UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR MVFR CONDS 
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY AFT-WED...VFR WITH CONTINUED DECREASING WINDS. WINDS TURN TO 
MORE EASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY. LOWERING CIGS TO IFR POSSIBLY INTO 
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN.
FRIDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC TERMINALS AT NIGHT. SATURDAY...VFR
CEILINGS IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION/CYCLONIC FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG NE FLOW RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON
ALL WATERS. SLOW MOVING HIGH COUPLED WITH A WEAK ATLANTIC STORM
TRACK WILL KEEP THIS WIND REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...LONG ISLAND SOUND AND PROTECTED
BAYS WILL BE THE FIRST TO DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA. LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON OCEAN SEAS FALLING BELOW 5 FT BY LATE IN THE DAY
TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED HERE.

SUB SCA ON ALL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY. 

SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING IN 
STRENGTHENING S-SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE. 
GALES ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN FROM FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT 
EVENING...AS THE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS WHILE LIFTING NE FROM THE LOCAL 
AREA INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. 
LINGERING SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW FOR SAT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIP REGIONWIDE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BS
NEAR TERM...BS/PW
SHORT TERM...BS
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...AL/JM
MARINE...BG/BS
HYDROLOGY...BS