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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 162337
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
737 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LASTS INTO MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL DISSIPATE BY 01Z AND SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL CONTINUE DECREASING...BECOMING DECOUPLED FROM THE UPPER
WIND FLOW MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME IDEAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING LEADING TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

COMPLICATING THIS FORECAST IS A PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT COULD POTENTIALLY
BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS FROM DECOUPLING. THIS WOULD
HAVE MORE IMPLICATIONS OVER COASTAL CT...LONG ISLAND...AND ZONES
ADJACENT TO THE CITY WHERE FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA MIGHT NOT THEN
BE MET.

NO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TIE OR BREAK RECORDS...BUT WILL AT
LEAST COME CLOSE. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY SUNNY ON THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS. 
MIXING WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO AROUND 925MB WHERE THE FCST 
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -3C AT THIS HEIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT 
THEY WERE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE GONE NEAR THE COLDER NAM 
MOS GUIDANCE. HIGHS ONLY 45-50 FOR THE MOST PART.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY 
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A NE TO ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW. MODELS AGREE THAT 
THIS ADVECTS IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 
THE RESULTING CLOUD COVER WILL SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING 
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED....SO NO FREEZE WATCH/WARNING 
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

THE DEPTH OF THIS MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...ONLY UP THROUGH ABOUT 925 
MB. NAM...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...GFS SHOWS SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL 
LIFT MOVING THROUGH DURING FRIDAY. NOT SURE IF THIS WILL BE ENOUGH 
TO WARRANT POPS DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING HOW SHALLOW 
THIS MOISTURE IS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND A SUN 
ANGLE THAT COULD ERODE CLOUDS/MOISTURE. HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH 
CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHC POPS THAT WERE IN THE 
PREVIOUS FORECAST. PCPN TYPE WOULD BE DRIZZLE DUE TO SHALLOW DEPTH 
OF THE MOISTURE. SIDED WITH THE COLDER NAM MOS ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE 
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND EAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SPOTTY SHOWERS/DRIZZLE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING 
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE GREAT 
LAKES. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY LOOKS 
LIMITED SO HAVE DROPPED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE MORNING. 
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...AS HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKENDS 
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW 
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY...CROSSING THE AREA 
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS 
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE 
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. 
ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE 
OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS DURING THE DAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND 
NIGHT TIME LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTS NE 
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. 

VFR THRU 00Z FRI. IN THE EXTENDED TAFS...VERY LOW PROB OF OCNL MVFR 
CIGS AFT 00Z.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIGHTEN AND VEER TO THE NE OVERNIGHT. 
WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE E THU MORNING WITH SPEEDS INCREASING 
10 TO 20 KT THRU THE AFTN.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN 
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. 

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. 

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. 

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. 

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. 

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...PSBL MVFR CIGS.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR
.MONDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
A BUILDING SE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SEAS JUST ABOVE 5 FT ON THE 
OCEAN WATERS. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OVER THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS 
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHERE SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT BEING 
MET...HOWEVER...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR BUILDING SEAS AND 
STRENGTHENING WINDS LATER ON IN THE NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO 
AN ONSHORE FLOW.

SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON THURSDAY. FOR THE 
OTHER WATERS...OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. A DECENT ONSHORE 
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP SEAS ON THE OCEAN ABOVE THE OCEAN THROUGH 
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SCA
COULD BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY AS WELL.

SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES 
SOUTHEAST OF THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT 
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE 
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THAT WOULD HAVE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. 
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE 
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING APRIL 17:

EWR - 30 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 34
BDR - 30 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 32
NYC - 28 IN 1875  FORECAST LOW - 35
LGA - 32 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 37
JFK - 33 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 34
ISP - 30 IN 2005  FORECAST LOW - 31

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ069>071-
     073-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ004-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/FIG
NEAR TERM...GC/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...JC/FIG
CLIMATE...






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