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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 272042
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
442 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LAPS INDICATES OVER 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE FROM ORANGE COUNTY EWD
INTO NRN PUTNAM COUNTY. BASED ON IR...IT APPEARS THE CDFNT IS
FROM NRN VT...TO CNTRL NY STATE...INTO SWRN PA. IN THIS PREFRONTAL
UNSTABLE ZONE...A FEW ISOLD TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING. THE CU FIELD
EVIDENT ON STLT OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY SUGGESTS THAT PERHAPS THE
AREA IS WAITING FOR A BIT MORE UPR SUPPORT.

THIS UPR SUPPORT GETS CLOSE THIS EVE WITH THE PASSING H3 JET
COUPLET. AS A RESULT SCT TSTMS ARE FCST ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ALONG
THE COASTS...ENOUGH POOLING INSTABILITY ALONG THE SFC FRONT MAY
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ISOLD COVERAGE TO SUSTAIN OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT...SCHC INCLUDED MOST OF THE AREA TNGT.

WRT TSTM INTENSITY...PULSE MODE IS EXPECTED WITH ONLY 30KT OF
0-6KM SHEAR. IN ORDER FOR TSTMS TO UTILIZE MAX DCAPE...THEY WILL
NEED TO REACH THE EL ABV 40K FT. NAM BUFR DOES INDICATE A DRY
LAYER AROUND H6-H5 WHICH COULD HELP HAIL GROWTH. AS A RESULT...AN
ISOLD SVR THREAT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLEARS OUT FROM W TO E LATE TNGT WITH NW FLOW
DEVELOPING.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT DUE TO
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FACING BEACHES. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NW FLOW WITH DRY WEATHER AND CLR SKIES. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT CU
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY. DAYTIME TEMPS LIKELY TO BE WARMEST
ALONG THE S COAST DUE TO THE DEEPER MIXING ON NW FLOW. THE MET
GUIDANCE WAS CLOSEST TO THIS SCENARIO. DIURNAL SPREAD OF CLOSE TO
30 DEGREES POSSIBLE THU NGT ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS WHERE
DECOUPLING OCCURS.

THERE CONTINUES A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH 
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES 
LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...WHEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES 
AND CROSSES THE AREA. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT...COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS NYC 
NORTH AND WEST. 

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN 
AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH... 
DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.   

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND 
SATURDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE 
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK PRE FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM CAPE COD SOUTHWEST 
INTO CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. A COLD FRONT NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL 
PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM 02Z NORTHWEST TO 08Z EAST. THE FRONT 
WILL COME THROUGH MAINLY DRY...HOWEVER THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF 
SCATTERED SHOWERS. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST OF 
THE NEW YORK TERMINALS THIS EVENING.

VFR. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHIFTS 
TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 10 KT. GUSTS 
DEVELOP UP TO 19 KT DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN 
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. 

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. 

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. 

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. 

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH MON...
.THU-SAT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR. A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN ABV 5 FT THRU AT LEAST THU NGT. PEAK
SEAS OF AROUND 8 FT EXPECTED THU MRNG...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS AROUND AREA INLETS. OTHERWISE...A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT LATE TNGT THRU THU BEHIND THE
CDFNT ON THE OCEAN. MAX WINDS TO 20 KT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ATTM. 

QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS ON FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...THEN MOVES EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. SEAS 
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO 
MONDAY...AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. SEAS FALL BACK TO BELOW SMALL 
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE 
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ISOLD URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD TREAT EXISTS WITH ANY TSTMS
THAT DEVELOP THIS EVE/TNGT...HOWEVER STORM MOTION OF 10-15 MPH
WILL HELP TO LIMIT EVEN THIS LOW THREAT.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. SCT CONVECTION ON MONDAY MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WIDESPREAD 4 FT WAVES AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. CONDITIONS WILL ONLY GET WORSE THRU THU MRNG...BEFORE
THE SWELL RETREATS INTO THE N ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...A HIGH
SURF ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU THU. ALTHOUGH WAVES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BLW THE 7 FT HIGH SURF CRITERIA INTO PERHAPS THE
EVE...DANGEROUS RIPS WILL CONTINUE. BASED ON THE OFFSHORE
SWELL...THE HIGHEST WAVES SHOULD ARRIVE THU MRNG. THE THU MRNG
HIGH TIDE CYCLE IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO PRESENT THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR MINOR BEACH EROSION AND WASH-OVERS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT 
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/FIG
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...BC/MET
MARINE...JMC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...JMC/FIG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








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