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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 242033
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
433 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH TONIGHT...AND MOVE EAST ON
FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND PASSING OVER
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE AT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. UNSETTLED AND
COOL WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN TUESDAY AND LAST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AFTER A VERY DRY AND WINDY AFTERNOON...WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF
QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING WHILE SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS LOW LEVELS ALSO REMAIN
DRY. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEG...SO CONVERTED
PREVIOUS FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND ADDED
PARTS OF NE NJ AND ERN LONG ISLAND TO THE WARNING AS WELL. 
WITH ISOLD NEAR FREEZING TEMPS ALSO POSSIBLE IN WRN SUFFOLK
COUNTY ESPECIALLY AS YOU GO FARTHER EAST...ISSUED A FROST 
ADVY THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN DURING FRIDAY...BUT 
MORE NOTICEABLY IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE PREVIOUSLY DRY AIR MASS 
AND SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA... 
MOISTENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW. AS SUCH... 
LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. 
BY EVENING...LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST...BECOMING
STEADIER OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY 
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WITH UPPER TROUGHING LINGERING ON SAT AND AN UPPER LOW
WITH VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH...KEPT CHANCE
POP THROUGH THE DAY ON SAT AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SAT NIGHT. 
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL LATE DAY SAT INTO SAT EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES ACROSS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY TEMPERATURES DROP TO BELOW NORMAL AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH 
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A GUSTY NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVE WITH DEEPENING LOW PRES 
TRACKING INTO THE N ATLANTIC. A HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE 
REGION EARLY FRI...AND OFFSHORE FRI AFTN.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT GRADUALLY DIMINISH THRU 00Z. 
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC. WINDS CONTINUE TO 
DIMINISH TNGT WITH SPEEDS AOB 10 KT BY 4-6Z. WINDS VEER TO THE SE 
FRI MRNG WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY BLW 10 KT. SLY FLOW 10-15 KT IN THE 
EXTENDED TAFS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN 
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. 

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. 

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. 

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. 

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. 
  
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI AFTN...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...MVFR IN RAIN FRI NGT INTO SAT. POCKETS OF MVFR SAT 
AFTN POSSIBLE WITH SHRA.
.SUN-TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS UP FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
MAINLY FOR NEAR SHORE GUSTS AROUND 35 KT. 

SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF TONIGHT FOR ALL
WATERS...THEN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ENTERS THE REGION. TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH WINDS
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT STILL UNDER 15 KT.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
PASSING OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS SHOULD LEAD TO SCA CONDS
BEGINNING LATE FRI NIGHT. THE ERN-MOST SOUND AND OCEAN WATERS COULD
SEE A BRIEF PD OF SE GALE FORCE GUSTS JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW...BUT
NOT OF LONG ENOUGH DURATION TO WARRANT A GALE WATCH. 

SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AFTER THE LOW PASSES EAST.
THEN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY RETURN
TUE-WED AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THIS EVENING FOR ALL
AREAS...AND UNTIL MIDNIGHT IN NYC AND URBAN NE NJ. MINIMUM RH NEAR
10 PERCENT...COMBINED WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE... 
LITTLE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND DRY FORECAST 1 AND
10 HOUR FUELS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY
SLOW/GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THIS EVENING AS TEMPS COOL AND 
WINDS DIMINISH. BETTER CONDS EXPECTED FRI VIA LIGHTER WINDS...AND
HIGHER IN DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING INTO 
SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED 
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>071-
     078>081-177-179.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ067>070-079-
     081.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ072>075-176-
     178.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ078-080.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-
     103>105-107.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ002-004-103.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MMD/FIG/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MMD/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...MMD/GOODMAN
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JMC/MET
MARINE...FIG/GOODMAN
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MMD/FIG







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