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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 181147
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
647 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH 
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND MOVE
NORTHEAST PASSING SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND EARLY TUESDAY. A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY PASSING
WEST OF NEW YORK CITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. HAVE EXTENDED ISOLD
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES FOR AN ADDITIONAL HOUR...BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. ALSO HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS AS THEY HAVE BEEN GUSTING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST. 

OTHERWISE...LOW PRES OVER NOVA SCOTIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MEANDER
ABOUT THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE CAUGHT
BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH
WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY W/NW FLOW.

POTENT VORT MAX CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS 
MORNING IS PRODUCING FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CEASE BY 
12Z AS THE ENERGY SLIDES TO THE E. 

CLOUDY SKIES EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH 
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW IN THE MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO THE EAST THROUGH FRI 
NIGHT AS ANOMALOUS RIDGE NEAR JAMES BAY BUILDS TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. 
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE N. 
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH SUBSIDENCE INCREASING ALTHOUGH SOME 
MOISTURE COULD BECOME TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION WITH STRATOCU 
DEVELOPING. ANY LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS TONIGHT AND FRI ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO NW ZONES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PREPARE FOR PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH A CHC OF LIGHT 
RAIN/SNOW SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHC OF A WEAK NOR'EASTER LATE MON-EARLY 
TUE...THEN A POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT STORM WITH HVY RAIN AND STRONG 
WINDS ON WED/CHRISTMAS EVE.

SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...A WEAK NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WV TROUGH IS FCST 
TO MV NE ACROSS THE AREA AIDED BY WEAK LOW LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION. 
LOWERED CHANCES OF PRECIP AS HIGH PRES OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND 
REMAINS DOMINANT AND LIMITS LIFT. CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHC OF LIGHT 
SNOW/RAIN FOR SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY THEN A CHC OF LIGHT RAIN 
SUNDAY AFTN. A DUSTING IS POSSIBLE.

SUN NGT-EARLY TUE...A SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH IS FCST TO DEVELOP 
ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. AIDING IN CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE COAST BY 
EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR A WEAK NOR'EASTER MAINLY 
MON AFTN-NIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1/2-1 INCH AND SUB 
ADVISORY NE WINDS. BECAUSE A NEW MOON IS PREDICTED ON SUNDAY...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGHER THAN AVG WITH AT LEAST A CHC FOR 
WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LATE MON-EARLY TUE.

WED...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS CONT FOR A STRONG MID 
WEEK STORM TRACKING WEST OF THE AREA WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SE 
WIND SWEPT HVY RAIN FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS DURING THE DAY ON 
CHRISTMAS. LOW PRESSURE IS FCST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE TN/OH 
VALLEYS TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WRAPPING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED 
NIGHT INTO THU WITH PRESSURES APPROACHING 960 MB. THIS TRACK WOULD 
KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM WITH THE 
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND EVEN STRONG WINDS. THE CAVEAT HERE IS 
THAT THE STORM IS ABOUT A WEEK AWAY WITH A LOT OF TIME FOR CHANGE IN 
TRACK AND TIMING. IN ADDITION...THE FAST PAC FLOW WOULD LEAD ONE TO 
BELIEVE THAT THERE ARE GOING TO BE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE SOUTHERN 
BRANCH SHORT WAVE ENERGY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES 
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN 035-050 CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS PREVAIL 
TODAY WITH WINDS DECREASING TONIGHT. 

ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY MORNING NEAR KGON.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
CIGS TODAY.

WINDS...DIRECTION MAINLY 290-300 DEGREES WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. THERE COULD BE SOME VARIATION WITH GUSTS BEING
INTERMITTENT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING 
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING 
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING 
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES 
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING 
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING 
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WIND GUST TIMING 
COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRI-SAT...VFR. 
.SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER WITH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW. MAINLY SNOW AT KSWF
AND MAINLY RAIN.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER...WITH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW CHANGING TO PLAIN RAIN
THROUGHOUT.
.MON...CHANCE OF WINTRY MIX INTERIOR FOR THE MORNING WITH
OTHERWISE CHANCE OF RAIN. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL 
SCA WIND GUSTS ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS TODAY AND SCA LEVEL WINDS AND 
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO TONIGHT. CONDS ON THE OCEAN MAY FALL 
BELOW SCA LEVELS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP THE END TIME 
AS 11Z. SUB-ADVSY CONDS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH THE 
GRADIENT RELAXING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO 
REMAIN TRANQUIL UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 

MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE SE COAST AND 
MOVES NE TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS...INCREASING NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT 
WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY MONDAY 
NIGHT.

POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING...WILL INCREASE MONDAY BASED ON A 
PREDICTED NEW MOON FOR SUNDAY AS BOTH NE WINDS INCREASE AND AN 
EASTERLY FETCH INCREASES AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO MEASURABLE PCPN THROUGH FRI.

SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN WITH AMOUNTS OF LESS 
THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. NO HYDRO IMPACTS ARE FORECAST.

MON AFTN-MON NIGHT...INCREASING CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD 1/2-1INCH 
LIQUID EQUIVALENT RAINFALL. LOCALIZED MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS 
POSSIBLE. PRECIP WILL BE MIXED WITH WET SNOW WEST AND NORTH OF NYC.

WED...INCREASING CHANCE OF A WIND SWEPT HEAVY RAIN OF 1-2 INCHES 
WITH POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO MASS TRANSIT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW






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