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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 211019
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
619 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TOD DAY AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
FROM EASTERN CANADA. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AND REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST UPDATED TO REMOVE FOG THIS MRNG. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE REGION WHILE AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA. BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER NE NJ...LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO NYC. THESE AREAS MAY ALSO SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AS MUCAP ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE HIGHEST...A
FEW HUNDRED TO JUST OVER 1000 J/KG. WITH A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
LIFTING MECHANISM...NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE.

CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE MOST PART. GENERALLY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES TONIGHT AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND A SHORTWAVE
MOVES AROUND ITS BASE. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES...AND THUS JUST
PLAIN SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE
OCEAN EARLY TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR A MOIST AIRMASS. DEWPOINTS
WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT...AND DEWPOINTS WILL COME BACK DOWN TO THE LOWER 60S
BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THIS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL THEN MEAN AN EVEN
COOLER DAY ON FRIDAY AS COMPARED TO THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. SOME UPPER 70S FOR THE NYC
METRO REGION. 

HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO END FROM EAST TO
WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOLID MODEL CONSENSUS THRU TUE. HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA THEN 
STRENGTHENS AS THE UPR RIDGE TRANSLATES EWD. ON WED...THE ECMWF 
BRINGS A CDFNT CLOSE...BUT THE GFS KEEPS THE FEATURE OFF THE LOCAL 
MAP. HAVE SIDED WITH THE SLOWER GFS SOLN AS THIS FITS A FAST MODEL 
BIAS AT THIS TIME RANGE.

A MARITIME POLAR AIRMASS IS LOCKED IN FRI NGT INTO THE FIRST PART OF 
SAT. VIRTUALLY NO LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER...SO HAVE ONLY FCST 
SPRINKLES. THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLR IN THE AFTN FROM NE TO SW AS 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE KICKS IN.

DRY WITH LGT WINDS SUN-WED COURTESY OF THE HIGH. SOME CIRRUS AT 
TIMES.

TEMPS BLW NORMAL SAT...THEN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE 
SUN-TUE AS HEIGHTS INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT 
KGON...GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING AND 
AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND 
ANY SHOWER COULD REDUCE CEILINGS OR VSBYS TO MVFR BRIEFLY. BEST 
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NYC METRO AND NORTH AND WEST.

POSSIBLE HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL 
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. BEST CHANCE NYC METRO AND NORTH AND WEST.

LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE DAYTIME.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN 
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST 
LATER THIS MORNING. 

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED TO 
BECOME SOUTHEAST BEFORE NOON. TIMING COULD BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST LATE THIS 
MORNING...JUST TO THE RIGHT OF 130 MAGNETIC. 

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES 
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. 

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. 

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.TONIGHT...VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCT 
SHOWERS/TSTMS. 
.FRI-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUND AND HARBOR. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA
BRIEFLY IN ANY THUNDERSTORM. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW SCA FOR TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. 

WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA LVLS FRI NGT...THEN DIMINISH DURING THE DAY 
ON SAT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT LATE FRI 
NGT...THEN LINGER THRU MOST OF SAT BEFORE SUBSIDING. A SCA MAY BE 
NEEDED ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN FRI NGT AND SAT. OTHERWISE...WINDS 
AND SEAS WILL BE BLW SCA LVLS SUN-AT LEAST TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON 
VALLEY AND INTERIOR NE NJ AND INTO NYC. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT BASIN AVERAGED
TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT...AS ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE ISOLATED. TRACE AMOUNTS OF PCPN ARE POSSIBLE FRI NGT INTO SAT.
IT WILL THEN REMAIN DRY THRU THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC/JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP







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