Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Upton, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KOKX 171155
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
755 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PUSHES TO THE EAST DURING THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THEN LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE AREA AS OF 11Z SO HAVE ALLOWED THE FREEZE WARNING TO BE
CANCELLED. ISOLATED POCKETS OF TEMPS BELOW FREEZING WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR CT AND HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
14Z...BUT NOT ENOUGH OF AN AREA TO KEEP THE WARNING GOING. HAVE
ALSO ISSUED FROST ADVISORY/FREEZE WATCH FOR AREAS OF COASTAL
CT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...LONG ISLAND AND HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE COMING NIGHT. 

WEAK...BUT DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE AREA
TODAY...KEEPING CLOUD COVER...OTHER THAN SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME...AT A MINIMUM. 

ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO LIMITING MIXING TO AROUND 900-875
HPA. SO HAVE USED MIXING DOWN FROM THERE...BLENDED WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FOR TODAY. EXPECT
READINGS TO BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAK RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...THEN A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FRIDAY. GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECT TO SEE INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES - WITH VALUES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FORECAST. 

FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-900 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT READINGS TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z/17 MODEL SUITE CONTINUING TO TREND TO THE DRIER SIDE NOW WITH 
WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE AND THE APPROACHING COLD 
FRONT WEAKENING/DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SAT...BUT LOOKS TO KEEP THE MAIN AREA OF 
FORCING TO THE NORTH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH THE NAM AND GFS 
REMAIN VERY DRY...WITH ONLY LIGHT MOISTENING IN THE LOWER LEVELS IN 
RESPONSE TO THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FRIDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE TAPERED 
POPS BACK FRI NIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINING GENERALLY
OFFSHORE...AND JUST TOUCHING THE EASTERN END OF LONG
ISLAND...WHILE REMOVING POPS THEN ON SAT. HIGH PRESSURE REFORMS
AND TAKES HOLD OF THE AREA THEN SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. ZONAL FLOW RETURNS BRIEFLY
MONDAY...KEEPING THE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCE WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE EAST TUES-WED. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS MON
NIGHT...WITH ONLY INCLUDING SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING A VORTICITY MAXIMUM THROUGH CENTRAL
NY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TUES-TUES NIGHT WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH
ALOFT AND THE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. COULD SEE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION INTO WED MORNING AS THE FRONT MERGES WITH THE
PASSING LOW OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THE WAKE WHILE
BROAD RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER
OF WED AND THURS.

WILL SEE INCREASING TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A
STRONG SURGE OF WAA WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.
DOWNSLOPING SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPS TO AROUND NORMAL
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES DURING THE DAY TODAY.

E WINDS 10-15 KT WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND 
THEN WILL DIMINISH TO 8-12 KT AFT 03Z FRIDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WILL INTRODUCE MVFR CIGS IN THE TAFS 
BECAUSE OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFT 08Z FRIDAY. CIGS SHOULD 
SCOUR OUT LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN 
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION. 
WINDS 15-20 KT...AND WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 19Z. 

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION. 
WINDS 15-20 KT...AND WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 19Z. 

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION. 
WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 19Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES 
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION. 
WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 120-140 MAG THIS AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION. 
WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 120-140 MAG THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION. 
WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 19Z. WINDS INCREASE TO 20 
KT THIS AFTERNOON. 

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS SCOUR OUT LATE FRIDAY MORNING. 
.SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
EXPECTED TODAY. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS ON FRIDAY
DUE TO PERSISTENT SWELLS...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE
COASTAL OCEAN ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY.

GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE DOMINATING FEATURE AND ONLY
MULTIPLE WEAK LOWS PASSING SE OF THE WATERS. SEAS INITIALLY
AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN FRI NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
LESS THAN 5 FT BY SAT MORNING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD BACK TO
AROUND 5 FT SUNDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

WINDS AND SEAS BOTH INCREASE WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...RESULTING 
IN POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. 
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE 
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ071-078>081-
     177-179.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR 
     NYZ069-070.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ104-106-108.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR 
     NJZ004-103-105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/SEARS
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/SEARS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/SEARS
CLIMATE...






National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy